|Tuesday 15th of April 2014
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
He begins with a flash-forward to an experience with the !Kung people of north-east Namibia:
I then resumed kicking behind a file of small-bodied, mostly naked men
and women who were quick-stepping under a sky fretted with golden fire
through the dry scrub of what was once coarsely known in Afrikaans as
Boesmanland (Bushmanland) - pouch-breasted women laughing among
themselves, an infant with a head like a fuzzy fruit bobbing in one
woman's sling, men in leather clouts clutching spears and bows, nine
of us altogether - and I was thinking, as I'd thought for years
travelling the earth among humankind: the best of them are bare-assed.
This tour de force of pseudo-ethnography would have been the end of
the line for this reader, had he not been a reviewer on deadline. If
you stop here, though, you will not realise that Theroux retracts this
scene a few pages later - we learn that it was a re-enactment staged
for foreign tourists. He encounters this group again shortly after,
when they have changed from animal skins back into second-hand clothes
handed out by western charities: T-shirts lettered "TommyHilfiger" and
"Springfield Hockey". What visitors see is "a travesty in the precise
meaning of the word . . . a dressing up in unnatural clothes". The
Ju/'hoansi misrepresent themselves "to cater to the imaginations of
fantasists, of which I was one", and the result is like taking a
re-enactment at Plimoth Plantation for the reality of Massachusetts
I am looking forward to being in Dubai this weekend.
Dubai from the Sky
Last night, I said to the little One Hannah come and sit next to me
and tell me your list. And I spent a most enjoyable half hour
listening to Hannah regale with her
Separatists ignore ultimatum, tighten grip on east Ukraine
Law & Politics
"President Putin called on Barack Obama to do his utmost to use the
opportunities that the United States has to prevent the use of force,
and bloodshed," the Kremlin said in a statement.
The White House said Obama urged Russia to use its influence to get
separatists in the country to stand down.
"The president emphasized that all irregular forces in the country
need to lay down their arms, and he urged President Putin to use his
influence with these armed, pro-Russian groups to convince them to
depart the buildings they have seized," the White House said in a
Eastern Ukraine seems to be rapidly spinning out of the control of the
Eastern Ukraine will be a Buffer Zone.
Russian government has already made it completely clear some weeks ago
that the use of violence against protesters in eastern and southern
Ukraine would compel the Russian government to send in the Russian
army to protect Russians R2P
The White House is confirming that CIA Director John Brennan was in
the Ukrainian capital over the weekend.
US warship USS Donald-Cook sails through the Bosphorus in Istanbul,
Turkey, on April 10, 2014, en route to the Black Sea. The ship was
repeatedly buzzed by a Russian jet over the weekend, according to the
Pentagon. Photo: AFP
Colonel Warren said a Russian Su-24 aircraft, or Fencer, made 12
passes at low altitude near the USS Donald Cook, a destroyer that has
been in the Black Sea since April 10.
Russian Su-24 aircraft, or Fencer
@NarendraModi's Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies will win a
majority in Indian elections an opinion poll showed for the first time
[lock, stock and barrel]
The BJP and its partners may take 275 of 543 parliamentary seats up
for grabs, three more than they need for a majority, according to a
Hansa Research survey for the NDTV channel released yesterday. Modi's
party alone will win 226 seats, its strongest-ever performance, the
@Narendramodi is a Shoe In.
A baptised Sikh man prays at the Golden Temple, during the Visakhi
festival in Amritsar, India. Photograph: Raminder Pal Singh/EPA
@Aiww "Diaoyu Islands," 2013, marble. Known as Diaoyu lslands in
Chinese and the Senkaku Islands in Japanese The carved marble work
conceptualizes the geopolitical debate
The Unrelenting Ai Weiwei: Show Evokes Danger and Urgency of Art
IMF's Lipton: Geopolitical Risks Cloud Global Recovery @WSJ
Lipton on the global recovery:
There's some sense that the world economy is improving, and that has
led people to be more calm about the situation...the risks have receded.
The greatest risk if complacency.
In the U.S. and in Japan, there appear to be some prospect for moving
towards their targets. In Europe, the risk is that low inflation might
become embedded. We see the inflation rate in our baseline rising, but
not rising to the ECB's target... We've been drawing attention to the
need for them to fulfill their mandate, it's no more complicated than
We do that because low inflation inevitably goes along with low
growth...As Draghi himself said in several settings, low inflation in a
setting of low growth and high real interest rates makes deleveraging,
which is important to Europe, difficult. And it makes the adjustment
of relative prices to restore competitiveness in the peripheral
counties that have that issue, it makes that more difficult.
We've been clear to express our concern about whether the exit from
the unconventional monetary policy will be smooth or bumpy, and that's
partly about the U.S, and whether the evolution of policy will permit
the U.S. to make a smooth exit or not, whether the path of the exit
will be something they can convey to the markets and the markets will
Whether the asynchronicity of monetary polices around the world with
the Fed probably exiting first, will it mean movements in asset prices
or exchange rates, and will it be difficult for the world to digest.
The new set of risks are geopolitical risks. Most of the attention is
to the question of what's happening in the Ukraine, and the
relationship between Russia and the U.S. But we've also pointed to the
geopolitical risks in the Middle East, what's happening in Syria, and
geopolitical risks in terms of the relationship between China and
Japan. So there are geopolitical risks that are a bit more on the
radar screen than in past years, and given the fragility of recovery,
they're more salient than they might otherwise be.
On the economic risks from sanctions against Russia:
Russia went into this period with an economy with growth slowing and
its own set of economic challenges.
The sanctions themselves and the uncertainties that have come from the
sanctions will certainly contribute to Russia's economic difficulties.
We don't see that the sanctions that have been imposed in either
direction as being of overwhelming economic importance yet. But we
certainly don't rule out that a future round of sanctions or
counter-sanctions could be extremely consequential for Russia, Ukraine
Global remittances, including those to high-income countries, are
estimated at US$581 billion this year from US$542 billion in 2013, and
rising to US$681 billion in 2016.
After remaining broadly unchanged in 2012, remittances to Sub-Saharan
Africa grew by 3.5 percent in 2013 to reach $32 billion. Flows are
forecast to rise to $41 billion in 2016. According to available
official data, Nigeria remains the largest recipient by far, with
migrants sending about $21 billion in 2013. Remittances to countries
in East Africa continued to grow robustly last year, by 10 percent to
Kenya and 15 percent to Uganda. In contrast, West African countries,
such as Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal, saw only modest increases in 2013,
after a slowdown in 2012. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the few regions
in the world where official development assistance is larger than
remittances, and both are much more stable than either foreign direct
investment or private financing flows. Many countries in the region
have large diasporas overseas, with substantial diaspora savings that
could be mobilized for development financing.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.3816 The euro touched $1.3967 on March 13, the strongest since
Dollar Index 79.79
Japan Yen 101.94
Swiss Franc 0.8805
Aussie 0.9392 The Australian currency weakened to 93.88 U.S. cents
after closing at the highest since Nov. 19 yesterday. The Aussie fell
after the RBA reiterated the most prudent course is likely to be a
period of steady interest rates in minutes from this month's meeting
India Rupee 60.292
South Korea Won 1043.15
Brazil Real 2.2154 The real advanced 0.2 percent to 2.2141 per U.S.
dollar, the second-biggest gain among 16 major counterparts tracked by
Egypt Pound 6.9800
South Africa Rand 10.5209
The broadest measure of credit fell 19 percent from a year earlier in
March and money supply grew the least since 2001
China's gross domestic product grew 1.5 percent from the previous
three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News
survey ahead of data released tomorrow, down from 1.8 percent in the
fourth quarter. That indicates a sharper deceleration than the median
projection for 7.3 percent growth from a year earlier, down from 7.7
China is slowing faster than consensus.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.79
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at a financial conference today
U.S. retail sales rose in March by the most since September 2012
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10
major peers, rose 0.1 percent to 1,008.94, after a 0.2 percent gain
yesterday. It lost 1 percent last week.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3816 [Draghi is trying to
wrestle it lower]
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.94
SABMiller Africa 14th April Trading Update
Moderate growth given a more challenging fourth quarter
Group NPR for the full year ended 5% ahead of the prior year on an
organic, constant currency basis, driven by total volume growth of 5%
(lager growth of 6%) from effective in-trade execution and share gains
across the majority of our subsidiary markets. In Tanzania, lager
volumes grew by 4% for the full year driven by solid growth in the
mainstream and affordable segments partially offset by poor weather
and weak market conditions in the fourth quarter. Zambia encountered a
challenging fourth quarter due to the excise-related pricing taken in
January 2014, limiting full year lager volume growth to 6%. Political
tensions in Mozambique continued to impact demand, and lager volumes
ended down 2% for the year. Nigeria and Ghana delivered strong double
digit volume growth in spite of economic challenges, supported by
increased capacity progressively coming on-stream. In Uganda, full
year lager volumes declined 3%, although there was an improvement in
the fourth quarter. Soft economic conditions persisted in Zimbabwe,
resulting in lager volumes declining by 18%. Our associate Castel
delivered lager volume growth of 6%, driven principally by a strong
performance in Angola. Soft drinks volume growth of 6% reflected good
performances in Zimbabwe, Ghana and Zambia, and by our associate
Castel. Other alcoholic beverage volumes ended 2% lower on an organic
basis, primarily as a result of lower sales in Zambia.
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.520475
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9800
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +17.10% 2014
7,886.08 +10.86 +0.14%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.30% 2014
The worst-ever bomb attack on Nigeria's capital that killed at least
71 people has sparked concern Islamists are shifting their targets
from the northeast to the center and south of Africa's biggest oil
Security forces are fighting a four-year-old insurgency by Boko Haram,
which has killed thousands of people in gun and bomb attacks in the
country's north and Abuja. With less than a year before general
elections, the government is increasingly stretched in its efforts to
quell violence across huge swathes of the West African nation, which
has Africa's biggest economy.
"If attacks in Abuja and elsewhere in the center and south become
common, the effect of terror on Nigeria as a whole will consequently
be greater," Francois Conradie, an analyst at Paarl, South
Africa-based political and economic research group NKC Independent
Economists, said in e-mailed comments.
Nigeria's Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGSEINDX) closed 0.3 percent
lower, its the biggest fall since April 1, while the naira snapped a
three-day gain, weakening 0.3 percent to 161.23 per dollar in Lagos,
the commercial capital. Yields on Eurobonds due July 2023 rose 3 basis
point to 5.74 percent.
Abuja is scheduled to host the World Economic Forum on Africa next
month in a meeting that's due to be attended by Jonathan, Ghanaian
President John Dramani Mahama, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and
Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote. Calls to WEF spokesman Oliver Cann
"The question that comes up is whether the government can really
describe itself as a strong, big economy when it cannot provide
ABUJA, Nigeria -- A massive explosion ripped through a bus station
"There are only two groups of people in the world: There are either
those who are with us or against us" leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar
Shekau. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +7.79% 2014
Photo : National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Ebola
Tanzania Leader Wary of Backlash as Gas Super Tax Considered
Tanzania may reconsider the proposed introduction of a super-profit
tax on natural gas production after gold miners criticized a similar
measure recommended three years ago, President Jakaya Kikwete said.
"We have not taken a final decision yet," Kikwete, 63, said in an
interview on April 11 at his office in Dar es Salaam, the country's
commercial capital. "It's something we are aware of that may create a
lot of concerns and jitters and may probably have negative effects.
We'll look into that carefully."
Tanzania's government may levy windfall taxes and royalties in
addition to corporate and other income taxes, according to a draft
natural gas policy published in November. The state also plans to take
an unspecified share in gas production projects, according to the
Tanzanian lawmakers in June 2011 approved a 42.9 trillion-shilling
($26.3 billion) economic development plan funded with a super-profit
tax on minerals, saying the country needed to derive more benefit from
its natural resources. The government estimates the value of gold
exports from the East African country increased to $1.5 billion in
2010, or 7 percent of gross domestic product, from $500 million five
years earlier. Annual government revenue from sales of the metal
remained at about $100 million.
The country's proposal of a super-profit tax on mines sent shares in
African Barrick Gold Plc (ABG), the nation's biggest producer of the
metal, to a record low in June 2011. The government has not introduced
"It has got its own effects we have got to be cognizant of," Kikwete
said. "We cannot just play ostrich and bury the head in the sand."
Tanzania has an estimated 46 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves,
discovered by companies including Statoil ASA (STL) and its partner
Exxon Mobil Corp., and BG Group Plc (BG/) working with Ophir Energy
Plc. (OPHR) The government expects gas reserves to increase after it
offered eight new blocks for exploration in its fourth bidding round,
for which the petroleum agency is receiving applications until May 15.
Tanzania needs money to pay for the $1.23 billion Mtwara gas-pipeline
project, expansion of the port at Dar es Salaam, building of a $10
billion port at Bagamoyo, and new roads and railways as it targets
becoming a middle-income country by 2025.
The government plans to use some of the proceeds from the gas industry
to create a sovereign wealth fund, which will partly finance the
The Tanzanian cabinet will by October send to Parliament a proposed
law that will establish the fund and define its structure and uses,
Kikwete said. The central bank will probably manage the fund, he said.
"With our gas discoveries and the prospects of getting windfall money,
the challenge is how to use that money judiciously," Kikwete said.
East Africa's biggest economy after Kenya is projected to expand 7.4
percent this year from 7.1 percent in 2013, Finance Ministry Permanent
Secretary Servacius Likwelile said in a Feb. 11 interview.
The nation's vision to become a middle-income country could be
achieved earlier than 2025, if it rebases economic-growth data,
Kikwete said. Tanzania currently uses 2001 as the base year for
measuring its GDP and 2007 for the household budget survey, according
The country's national income per capita was $570 in 2012 compared to
$860 in neighboring Kenya and a minimum of $1,036 to be considered a
middle-income nation by the World Bank.
"It's a discrepancy," Kikwete said. "Tanzania will re-base to clear
the discrepancy, and reflect the change in the structure of the
economy over the past 14 years," he said.
Fifteen people were injured late on Sunday when a makeshift bomb
exploded at a crowded bar in Arusha, a popular destination for Western
tourists in northern Tanzania
Officials said Sunday's bomb exploded at the Arusha Night Park pub
when football fans were watching an English Premier League match on
"This was a hand-made bomb. It was planted there by an unknown
person," Arusha regional commissioner Magesa Mulongo told state-run
Tanzania Broadcasting Corporation on Monday.
Godbles Lema, the member of parliament for Arusha, which is a popular
starting point for wildlife safaris, said he was worried.
"These explosions first started at a church, then moved to a public
rally organised by the (opposition) CHADEMA party and now at a pub ...
I don't know what is going on in Arusha," Lema said in a statement.
Congo militia leader killed in army gunfight
Paul Sadala, a poacher-turned-militia leader known as "Morgan" who
operated in Congo's Orientale province, surrendered on Saturday with
around 40 of his followers.
He was being brought by the army to the town of Bunia when he attacked
the soldiers escorting him, government spokesman Lambert Mende told
They said in another report last July that former captives had told
them the group, known as "Mai Mai Morgan", had engaged in cannibalism
on several occasions.
The 12 month cumulative remittance inflows also increased by 10.5 per cent to Sh112.5 billion ($1.3 billion) in February this year from Sh103.8 billion ($1.2 billion) in February 2013, CBK said on Friday.
The remittances rose by 8 per cent to Sh9.6 billion ($110.42 million)
from Sh8.9 billion ($102.4 million) in February last year, with the
Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) saying the inflows remained resilient
despite month-on-month slowdown from North America.
"Remittances inflows from all regions remained resilient, with North
America accounting for 48.6 per cent of total inflows amounting to
$54.6 million (Sh4.7 billion) in February 2014," the regulator said.
Inflows from Europe accounted for 27.7 per cent and increased
marginally to Sh2.6 billion ($29.9 million), while inflows from the
rest of the world amounted to Sh2.2 billion ($25.9 million).
Setting up of standard gauge railway line to begin next month
Construction of the Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway will start
next month after the government concludes a loan agreement with China.
The pact, which will see the Chinese Government release the money
needed to start the project, will be signed next month.
Speaking on NTV News at Nine on Sunday, Deputy President William Ruto
said Kenya would host Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, during whose
visit the two countries will put pen to paper on the final pact to
finance the railway set up.
"... during his visit we intend to sign commercial agreements and begin
the process of building the railway. The initial preparations are on
course. We have made budget allocations for compensation and other
suppliers and come 2018 the railway will at least be working up to
Nairobi," Mr Ruto told NTV.
The first phase of the project will cost of Sh327 billion. Kenya set
aside Sh22 billion in this year's budget, and introduced a railway
development levy of 1.5 per cent on all imports and has so far raised
more than Sh15 billion.
The visit by Chinese premier is a follow up to that by President
Kenyatta during which a deal worth Sh425 billion (about $5 billion) to
finance a railway line, energy project and improve wildlife protection
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.6945% to close at 146.42 and has
posted a Record High for the 3rd consecutive session.
The Nairobi All Share is +7.149% in 2014 and the recent move higher
has been on the coattails of Safaricom which is +20.737% in 2014 and
at a record.
Safaricom's market capitalisation is now 524.584b [$6.0366b] and
accounts for 25.77% of the All Share and has been the very much the
Precipitator of the move to all time highs in the All Share.
EABL lent muscle to the All Share today with a 2.27% Rally.
The Nairobi NSE20 edged 1.81 points higher to close at 4910.92 and is
marginally negative for the year.
Trading totalled 569.073m today.
Foreign investor participation dominated trading, accounting for 56.5%
of turnover with a 70.1% contribution to total purchases.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Kenya Orchards was the biggest gainer rallying 10% to close at 5.50
and traded just 100 shares. Kenya Orchards has rallied 83.33% in 2014,
in point of fact. Kenya Orchards has a market cap of kenya shillings
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom surged +1.9455% higher and sliced through 13.00 to post a
Fresh All Time Closing High of 13.10. Safaricom traded 12.531m shares
worth 164.326m and traded shares at an All Time intra day high of
13.30 +3.501%. Safaricom is +20.737% in 2014 and is now within 2.962%
of my Price Objective of 13.50. Investors are anticipating strong FY
Earnings and a material Hike in the Dividend, both expectations will
be met and some. Safaricom is set to push on and the recent bull
extension has been on real heavy volume which affirms the bona fides
of the Price move.
TPS Serena reported FY Earnings during the Trading session. TPS Serena
reported a +28.021% acceleration in FY Sales to 6.841420b, accelerated
the Depreciation charge +27.84%, accelerated FY Profit After Tax
+35.442% and reported a 4.1666% decline in Full Year Earnings per
share [there are 182,174m shares in issue now versus 148.211m
previously] and increased the Dividend +3.846% to 1.35 per share. The
Dividend Yield is worth 3.176% of yield. TPS Serena characterised the
FY 2013 Earnings as ''''Taking all factors into account, the company's
performance for the year 2013 is commendable.'' I think that is a fair
characterisation and that these results showed some alpha when set
against a very soft Tourism backdrop. TPS Serena traded light and just
8,700 shares at 42.00 -0.59%. It deserves a better response tomorrow.
Scangroup rallied 3.78% to close at 48.00 and traded good volume of
611,400 shares. Mr. Bharat Thakrar characterised the Advertising
market as ''strong'' on my @Twitter timeline on Sunday evening.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 0.52% to
close at 47.25 and traded 2.677m shares worth 126.905m. Kenya
Commercial Bank is unchanged for the Year and has strong Buy Side
Support at these levels.
Equity Bank eased 0.77% to close at 32.25 and traded 1.117m shares
worth 36.039m. Sellers outpaced Buyers by a Factor of 11 Sellers for
every 7 Buyers at the closing Bell. The MVNO License has been seen as
Liberty Kenya rallied 5.35% to close at an all time high of 18.70.
Liberty Kenya has posted a +33.096% in 2014 and the spike higher
gathered traction after the release of the FY Earnings for 2013 where
Liberty announced a +28.91% Full Year Profit after Tax Acceleration.
Pan Africa Insurance firmed 1.57% to close at 129.00 and traded 8,900
shares. Pan Africa is +43.333% in 2014 and recent comments from SANLAM
that they were seeking to add to their position has given the price a
further recent fillip higher.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
EABL rallied 2.27% to close at 270.00 and was in fact trading at
session highs of 275.00 4.17% at the finish line in a very relentless
and bullish session. EABL traded 117,000 shares with Buyers outpacing
sellers by a Factor of 45 versus 7 at the Finale. I have a Fair Value
level of 290.00 and believe we are headed there.
Bamburi Cement retreated 2.06% to close at 190.00 and traded 218,900
shares worth 41.603m. Bamburi Cement has retreated 10.526% in 2014 and
reported a 24.76% deceleration in FY 2013 Profit After Tax.
East African Portland Cement was low ticked 7% to close at 93.00 and
traded 500 shares. East African Portland remains +34.78% in 2014 as
Investors started to factor in the Land Value in 2014.
ARM closed unchanged at 85.00 and traded 122,000 shares. ARM reported
a +28% FY Turnover Expansion on increased cement sales. In H2, The
Tanga Clinker Capacity will come on stream and this will be the
catalyst for some serious margin expansion.
BOC Kenya rallied 6.38% to close at 150.00 and traded 7,000 shares.