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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 28th of April 2014

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Can Africa curb illicit cash flow? Continent-wide problem results in over $1 trillion siphoned off since 1980 @AjEnglish

African leaders have been meeting in Bahir Dar in Ethiopia to find a
way to stop vast sums of money from being illegally taken out of

Many countries on the continent are experiencing remarkable economic
growth, but illegal financial dealings prevent this growth from
translating into better living conditions for many African citizens.

The cash outflow is the result of many factors, including poor
financial regulatory frameworks, weak and non-harmonised tax regimes
and opaque public procurement and contracting. Criminal networks are
also to blame.

But what will it take to properly address the issue? And is political
will alone enough?

Presenter: Hazem Sika


James Schneider, editor of Think Africa Press. He specialises in
equitable development in Africa.

Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich Management. He is also an economist and author.

Francois Ndengwe, founder of the African Advisory Board, which deals
with economic development, and a founding member of the Congress of
African Economists.

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Did Obama Just Draw Another Red Line in the East China Sea?
Law & Politics

Yesterday in Tokyo, the president made another powerful promise,
assuring Japan that the disputed Senkaku Islands come under Article
Five of the U.S.-Japan security treaty, and thus would be protected by
American forces in the case of a Sino-Japanese conflict over them. In
response, the Chinese accused Washington of trying to "cage" China.

Perhaps President Obama's threats are simply seen as no longer
credible. Beijing may well decide that the president offers little but
rhetoric. In that case, it is not a question of whether the United
States has the means to deter Chinese aggression (we do, for now), but
whether President Obama has the will. If the leaders of revisionist or
disruptive states are betting that the White House will shy away from
any real confrontation, then they will embrace aggressive opportunism
when the chance offers itself.

In the case of China and Japan, that could lead to the largest clash
in Asia since Vietnam. The two have no relations of trust, and the
trend line has shown that they are unwilling to solve their dispute
peacefully. The worst outcome would be if President Obama's promise
actually worsened the situation in the East China Sea rather than
stabilize it. That would truly test U.S. resolve and credibility.



The answer to the Question you posed is yes President @BarackObama
drew a red line and in a manner as incontestable as flying two B-52s
directly into the ADIZ at the end of last year. The comparison between
the Syrian red line and the Senkakus is kind of spurious. Erdogan's
fingerprints were all over the Trigger Event in Syria and to advocate
intervening on such a compromised pretext was a cockamamie idea. I am
surprised that the US is pivoting in two directions simultaneously ie
both to Ukraine/Russia and to Asia/China. Nevertheless one senses that
the US Security complex senses it has a decisive advantage now and
that this is et to erode. The Nature of Advantages is you need to
press them. The President has been a sophisticated and aggressive
exponent of a new kind of c21st warcraft. The weak @Barackobama Canard
is cute but its a nonsense.

Aly-Khan Satchu

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Putin Halts All Talks With White House
Law & Politics

Since the invasion of Crimea, President Vladimir Putin and President
Barack Obama have had regular phone calls in an often half-hearted
attempt to deescalate the ongoing crisis inside Ukraine. But as the
U.S. and EU prepare to unveil new sanctions against Russia, Putin has
decided the interactions should stop. The Kremlin has ended high-level
contact with the Obama administration, according to diplomatic
officials and sources close to the Russian leadership. The move
signals an end to the diplomacy, for now.

"Putin will not talk to Obama under pressure," said Igor Yurgens,
Chairman of the Institute for Contemporary Development, a prominent
Moscow think tank, and a close associate of Russian Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev. "It does not mean forever."

Obama and Putin last spoke over the phone on April 14, a call that the
White House said was initiated at Moscow's request. Obama urged Putin
in the call to end Kremlin support for armed, pro-Russian activists
creating unrest in eastern Ukraine. Obama also warned that the U.S.
would impose more "costs" on Russia if Putin continued his current
course. According to the Kremlin's readout of the call, Putin denied
Russian interference in eastern Ukraine and said "that such
speculations are based on inaccurate information."

Obama and Putin have spoken to each other about Ukraine regularly over
the past weeks, including calls on March 28, March 16, and March 6.
But that these calls are now on hold for the indefinite future, due to
their lack of progress and frustration on both sides.

On Friday, Kerry warned that new round of American financial assaults
on Russia were on the way. "We are putting in more sanctions, they
will probably come Monday at the latest," he said in a private meeting
in Washington, according to an attendee. Russian businesses and
individuals close to Putin would be on the sanctions list, he added.

Diplomatic sources close to the process confirmed that Putin is not
interested in speaking with Obama again in the current environment.
The two leaders might talk again in the future but neither side is
reaching out for direct interaction, as they had been doing since the
Ukraine crisis began. The failure of the agreement struck last week in
Geneva between the contact group of the U.S., EU, Russia, and Ukraine
has made further direct Washington-Moscow interactions moot.

Other top U.S. officials are also now out of direct contact with their
Russian interlocutors. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is also getting
the cold shoulder from his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoygu. Pentagon
officials have reached out to Russia on Mr. Hagel's behalf within the
past 24 hours but have not gotten any response, according to Pentagon
Spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren.

That leaves the channel between Secretary of State John Kerry and
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as the only semi-functioning
high-level diplomatic channel between Washington and Moscow. But even
that often-frosty relationship has further chilled as the two sides
hurled insults and accusations this week.

After speaking over the phone Monday and then again Tuesday about the
now defunct Geneva agreement on Ukraine, Kerry and Lavrov are now
conducting diplomacy through the press--and leveling harsh and
undiplomatic charges against one another.

Kerry appeared at the State Department press room Thursday afternoon
to declare publicly that Russia was not keeping its word.

"For seven days, Russia has refused to take a single concrete step in
the right direction," Kerry scolded. "Not a single Russian official,
not one, has publicly gone on television in Ukraine and called on the
separatists to support the Geneva agreement, to support the
stand-down, to give up their weapons, and get out of the Ukrainian
buildings. They have not called on them to engage in that activity. "

Kerry also lashed out at Russia Today, the Kremlin-sponsored
television network, which Kerry said spends all its time "to
propagandize and to distort what is happening or not happening in

"Instead, in plain sight, Russia continues to fund, coordinate, and
fuel a heavily armed separatist movement in Donetsk," Kerry accused.

Lavrov publicly responded, "The U.S. is trying to pervert everything
that is going on in Ukraine."

On Friday, Kerry summed up his recent interactions with his Russian
counterpart,  "I've had 6 conversations with Lavrov in the last few
weeks. The last one was Kafka-esque... It was bizarre."

Kerry: Israel risks becoming apartheid state @AjEnglish


US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that Israel risks becoming
"an apartheid state" if there is no two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Kerry's comments were published on Sunday by The Daily Beast news
website, which obtained a recording of his remarks on Friday to the
Trilateral Commission, a non-governmental organisation which includes
senior officials and experts from the US, Western Europe, Russia and

"A two-state solution will be clearly underscored as the only real
alternative. Because a unitary state winds up either being an
apartheid state with second class citizens - or it ends up being a
state that destroys the capacity of Israel to be a Jewish state," said

"Once you put that frame in your mind, that reality, which is the
bottom line, you understand how imperative it is to get to the
two-state solution, which both leaders, even yesterday, said they
remain deeply committed to."

The US-based The Daily Beast reported that senior US officials have
rarely used the term in reference to Israel.

"The terrorist and the policeman both come form the same basket.
Revolution, legality - countermoves in the same game; forms of
idleness at bottom identical."
-- Joseph Conrad, The Secret Agent

"I am afraid that if you want to go down into history you'll have to
do something for it."
-- Joseph Conrad, The Secret Agent

An Apache helicopter flies over Tahrir Square during a protest to
support the army, in Cairo, July 26, 2013. photo by REUTERS/Amr
Abdallah Dalsh


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Law & Politics

One afternoon last December, an assassin on board a K.L.M. flight from
Mexico City arrived at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport. This was not a
business trip: the killer, who was thirty-three, liked to travel, and
often documented his journeys around Europe on Instagram. He wore
designer clothes and a heavy silver ring in the shape of a grimacing
skull. His passport was an expensive fake, and he had used it
successfully many times. But, moments after he presented his documents
to Dutch customs, he was arrested. The U.S. Drug Enforcement
Administration had filed a Red Notice with Interpol--an international
arrest warrant--and knew that he was coming. Only after the Dutch
authorities had the man in custody did they learn his real identity:
José Rodrigo Arechiga, the chief enforcer for the biggest
drug-trafficking organization in history, Mexico's Sinaloa cartel.

To work in the Mexican drug trade is to have a nickname, and Arechiga
went by the whimsically malevolent handle El Chino Ántrax. He
supervised the armed wing of the Sinaloa--a cadre of executioners known
as Los Ántrax--and coördinated drug shipments for the cartel's leader,
Joaquín Guzmán Loera, who was known as El Chapo, or Shorty. Arechiga
was a narcotraficante of the digital age, bantering with other
criminals on Twitter and posting snapshots of himself guzzling
Cristal, posing with exotic pets, and fondling a gold-plated AK-47.
Guzmán, who is fifty-seven, typified an older generation. Obsessively
secretive, he ran his multibillion-dollar drug enterprise from hiding
in Sinaloa, the remote western state where he was born, and from which
the cartel takes its name. The Sinaloa cartel exports industrial
volumes of cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine to America;
it is thought to be responsible for as much as half the illegal
narcotics that cross the border every year. Guzmán has been
characterized by the U.S. Treasury Department as "the world's most
powerful drug trafficker," and after the killing of Osama bin Laden,
three years ago, he became perhaps the most wanted fugitive on the
planet. Mexican politicians promised to bring him to justice, and the
U.S. offered a five-million-dollar reward for information leading to
his capture. But part of Guzmán's fame stemmed from the perception
that he was uncatchable, and he continued to thrive, consolidating
control of key smuggling routes and extending his operation into new
markets in Europe, Asia, and Australia. According to one study, the
Sinaloa cartel is now active in more than fifty countries.

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Cities, not countries, are the key to tomorrow's economies By Arif Naqvi @abraajgroup @FT
Law & Politics

Each passing week provides a million new reasons to rethink the view
that countries are the fundamental building blocks of civilisation in
the 21st century. For that is the number of people who make the
journey from country to city every seven days, exchanging rural for
urban life with no intention of going back. That is equivalent to
populating eight cities the size of New York every year. This shift
means that nearly half of the economic growth expected over the next
decade will take place in just 400 cities in the world's global growth
markets. (Please: can we stop calling them emerging markets?) It will
create an urban consumer class of 4bn people by 2025, up from 1bn as
recently as 1990. These are large numbers. And our traditional way of
viewing the world as a collection of national economies cannot provide
a clear view of this transformation. To make wise decisions, investors
and policy makers need to view the world not so much as a collection
of countries but a network of cities. Urbanisation on a massive scale
is here to stay, and it is a path we have not travelled before.

From Rome to Athens, Istanbul and Beijing to Damascus, urban centres
have always anchored human activity; an air of permanence surrounds
them. But cities matter more now than ever, especially in the global
growth markets.

Cities are in fact more stable fixtures than countries in our
geopolitical, economic and cultural landscape. As the decades since
the fall of the Soviet Union have shown - and as the Ukrainian crisis
is making vivid once again - national boundaries can advance and
recede far faster than the cities within them rise or fall. And cities
have become a requirement for prosperity. Rarely does a country
achieve per capita income levels of $10,000 annually until at least 60
per cent of its population shifts towards urban centres.

Never before have so many of us lived in cities. Humanity's past is
rural. Our present is urban, and our future even more so. According to
the World Health Organisation, more than half of the world's people
now live in cities, and 70 per cent of us will do so in 2050.

This is not about semantics; it is about fundamentals. View a
country's economy through the lens of aggregated national statistics
and you see a blurry picture of what is going on at the grassroots.
City economies now matter far more than national ones. Few of us
invest in a country. We back a business or sector on the basis of the
relevant context of risk and opportunity; and this context -
especially for consumer-facing businesses - is urban.

We all know this to be true. When it comes to our own backyard, people
take a highly nuanced view. Mention to a Chicagoan that his home town
has the highest homicide rate in the US and he will tell you he knows
which neighbourhoods to avoid. Ask an estate agent about London, and
she will focus on specific districts and, within them, on certain
streets. To channel Tip O'Neill, the late speaker of the US House of
Representatives: just as all politics is local, so is all economics.

This is just as true beyond developed markets. Contrast the clustering
of large businesses and populations in capital cities across the
world's growth markets with the fact that virtually every state in the
US is home to a few Fortune 500 companies, and you will see a picture
of the concentrated economic power these cities represent. You just
cannot ignore the drivers of future economic activity.

Consider that Indonesia is growing at 6 per cent a year. This is a
striking statistic, at a time when many western economies are
moribund. But it is also a useless one, when it comes to decision
about policy or investment. It masks the fact Jakarta's economy is
growing at a robust 14 per cent. Meanwhile, numerous islands in the
Indonesian archipelago are as far removed in economic terms from this
engine of prosperity as they are physically distant from their capital
city. The same is true of Nigeria. Lagos, its largest city, is growing
at least twice as fast as the country's north, rendering the nation's
average growth rate meaningless. So far as economic opportunities go,
Lagos has much more in common with Accra - three countries away, in
Ghana - than with the Nigerian capital, Abuja. Indeed, Lagos is primed
to become the 13th largest economy in all of Africa - counting both
city economies and national ones.

National governments need to recognise that they have a dual
imperative. One is to build the roads, figurative and real, that
connect their villages to their cities. The other is to construct the
bridges, concrete and virtual, that enable cities to project
themselves outwards, into the global economy.
For example, cities within the Pacific Alliance nations of Mexico,
Colombia, Peru and Chile contribute about two-thirds of the bloc's
combined gross domestic product. In three dozen of those cities, GDP
is growing 20 per cent faster than the national averages. By investing
billions in infrastructure, removing tariffs on most merchandise trade
within the group and expanding their links to Asia as members of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, these countries are taking steps to expand
opportunity and attracting attention from investors as a result.

Such policies not only raise the living standards of newcomers to the
cities; they also create opportunities for emerging businesses. As
more investors acknowledge the vital role cities play in driving
economic development, they will start to see our backyards the way
they see their own - and they will increasingly seek opportunities
outside the developed world.

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I read a recent report where the authors characterised a key trait of 21st century success as being a quality termed ''Global Fluency.''
Law & Politics

Global fluency is the level of global understanding, competence,
practice, and reach a metropolitan area exhibits in an increasingly
interconnected world economy.

Both Dubai and Geneva are ''globally fluent.''

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3824 trades resilient in the teeth of a lot of Jaw Jaw from Mario Draghi
Dollar Index 79.80no vigour
Japan Yen 102.16 The yen was little changed at 102.19 per dollar as of
2:23 p.m. in Tokyo from April 25, when it capped a 0.3 percent weekly
gain and reached 101.96, the strongest since April 17.
Swiss Franc 0.8820
Pound 1.6790 The pound was little changed in the week at $1.6806 . It
rose to $1.6842 on April 17, the highest level since November 2009. I
am looking for 1.7350
Aussie 0.9278
India Rupee 60.66 looking for 57.50 post a compelling @narendramodi
Victory at the Polls
South Korea Won 1036.95 The won strengthened 0.3 percent to 1,038.07
per dollar as of 9:47 a.m. in Seoul, the biggest gain since April 11,
data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency strengthened 2.6 percent
this month, the most among 11 Asian currencies.
Brazil Real 2.2407 Brazil's real fell the most this year after the
central bank refrained from calling an auction to roll over
foreign-exchange swaps, adding to speculation that it is easing
support for the currency.
The real declined 1.3 percent to 2.2436 per U.S. dollar at the close
of trade in Sao Paulo, the worst performance among 16 major currencies
tracked by Bloomberg. The drop was the biggest since Dec. 11, pushing
the currency down 0.3 percent for the week.
Egypt Pound 6.9994
South Africa Rand 10.6558

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.80


The Fed meets April 29-30, when economists predict the central bank
will cut monthly asset purchases by another $10 billion to $45
billion. Policy makers will continue to taper at that pace until
ending the program at its Oct. 28-29 meeting, according to a Bloomberg
News survey.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against 10 of its major counterparts, was little changed at 1,011.23
from the end of last week. It's down 0.4 percent this month.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3824 trades resilient


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1304.175


Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to
$1,306.59 an ounce, the highest since April 16, and traded at
$1,305.95 by 9:20 a.m. in Singapore. Prices are 1.7 percent higher
this month after dropping 3.2 percent in March, according to Bloomberg
generic pricing.

Gold has risen 8.7 percent this year, rebounding from the worst annual
decline in more than three decades, in part as the conflict between
Russia and Ukraine fueled demand

Gold slid 28 percent in 2013 to end a 12-year winning streak

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 101.01


"Oil prices are going to be higher this week because of pressures
linked to the situation around Russia and Ukraine," said Robin Mills


Futures in London advanced as much as 0.3 percent. The U.S. and
European Union will announce new sanctions as early as today on
Russian companies and individuals close to President Vladimir Putin,
officials said. Among those that may be targeted are Igor Sechin,
chief executive officer of OAO Rosneft, the country's biggest oil
producer, people familiar with developments said.

Coffee 1 Year Chart INO 207.00


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28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel @IMFnews Regional Economic Outlook SSA #Africarising

LAST Thursday I attended the release of the International Monetary
Fund's 2014 sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook at the Serena
Hotel. The Amani room reminded me of my days on the trading floor.
Antoinette Sayeh, head of the IMF Africa department, Cabinet Secretary
for National Treasury Henry Rotich, Diariétou Gaye of the World Bank,
the always sprightly Manu Chandaria were all in attendance. It's a big
ticket event and an important release.

Africa, in my view, is the least linear of continents. Directionally,
the continent is on the upswing and the IMF projected SSA's GDP will
expand 5.5 per cent this year from 4.9 per cent in 2013. GDP growth is
the condition precedent of the #AfricaRising story. However, you have
to admit there is always a lot of zig zag. The IMF's REO gives us a
bird's eye view. Too often, I find we get entrenched in the reality of
our own situation. The Economic Outlook gives us a chance to take a
look at the bigger African canvas.

The IMF cautioned: "This solid near-term outlook is nonetheless
subject to downside risks. External factors pose by far the more
potent threats to the region as a whole, but domestic risks are more
significant in some countries.''

The risks the IMF outlined were:

1. Growth in emerging markets could prove less supportive. It is worth
noting that "one-third" of non-oil exports of the region now go to the
BRICs - Brazil, Russia, India, China - compared with less than 10 per
cent a decade ago.

2. Tighter global financial conditions. These have already impacted
African sovereign yields with Zambia and Ghana Eurobond yields now
clustering towards nine per cent.

3. Rising fiscal imbalances in some countries. This for me remains the
Achilles' Heel. The IMF said: "In a few cases, policy missteps, such
as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won
macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. In
addition, important home-grown risks arise from fiscal vulnerabilities
in a number of countries such as Ghana and Zambia.'' Ghana's cedi has
been in free-fall and the Zambian kwacha not far behind. The price the
markets are exacting for 'policy mis- steps' is brutal.

4. Security conditions remain difficult, in some areas threatening
spill-over effects. The IMF has focused on the dread- ful situation in
South Sudan and in Central African Republic, but I would also raise
the red flag around the risks posed by the likes of al-Shabaab and the
Boko Haram whose leader Abubakar Shekar taunted President Goodluck
Jonathan with the comment ''I am in your city.''

The main downside risk to this generally positive baseline scenario is
the risk that growth in emerging markets might slow much more abruptly
than currently envisaged.

My takeaway is; the tailwinds remain favourable but that the markets
are no longer as benign and that we would be wise to look very closely
how policy makers are getting crunched in places like Ghana. A more
than 30 per cent collapse in a currency is a direct cause-and-effect
of poor policy making. Putting Humpty Dumpty together again is not an
easy thing.

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@IMFNews Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa @Serenahotels #Nairobi #AfricaRising @IMFAfrica

South Africans marked the 20th anniversary of the end of white
minority rule today


"1994 ushered in a new era of hope for all South Africans, a hope that
the lives of the people would improve and that South Africa would be a
better country than it had ever been," President Jacob Zuma said in a
speech at the Union Building in the capital, Pretoria. "Our freedom
was not free. It came about through blood, sweat and tears, that is
why we must defend it at all cost."

Zuma has become a lightning rod for discontent. He was jeered in front
of world leaders at the December memorial service for Mandela, and
again three weeks later at a soccer match, as well as on several
occasions while campaigning for May 7 elections.

The proportion of the 53 million people living below the extreme
poverty line of 290 rand a month fell to 31.3 percent last year from
41.1 percent in 1994 as the number of welfare grant recipients swelled
to 16 million from 2.7 million, according to official data.

"For 20 years millions of South Africans have been able to lead their
lives and pursue their dreams in conditions of relative peace,
personal dignity and harmony," F.W. de Klerk, the nation's last white
president, said in a statement on April 25. "Despite all our
challenges, South Africa today is a much better and fairer country
than it was before 27 April 1994."

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Violence erupted on South Africa's platinum belt on Sunday when members of the striking AMCU union attacked sports minister Fikile Mbalula as he campaigned in the area for the ruling ANC in May 7 elections, union officials and local media said.

SABC radio, the public broadcaster, said the minister had to be
whisked away in a bulletproof car when AMCU members set upon him and
ANC activists, pelting them with rocks, as they went door to door in
Freedom Park, a shantytown northwest of Johannesburg.

Sydwell Dokolwana, the regional secretary for the National Union of
Mineworkers, a key ANC ally and AMCU's arch rival, told Reuters he was
with the minister at the time and that several people were hurt and
buildings were torched.

"There was a group of about 100 guys with AMCU shirts. We had to run
for our lives," he told Reuters.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Ethiopia, the
Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola from April 29 to May 5 to
promote democracy and human rights, the State Department said on


Trade between China and Africa has increased 5.6 percent year over
year to hit $201 billion in 2013, according to figures released from
the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.


Trade between China and Africa has increased 5.6 percent year over
year to hit $201 billion in 2013, according to figures released from
the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, reported Xinhua. And on Wednesday
executives from Standard Chartered Bank told Chinese and African
officials that they expect China-Africa trade volume to hit $280
billion by 2015.

"Too much of Africa's recent prosperity depends on China's own
continued prosperity and rapid growth," wrote Robert Rotberg, a senior
fellow at the Center for International Governance, in an April 4 blog
post. "If China goes, so goes Africa," he added.

With World Watching Ukraine, Russia Makes Energy Moves in Africa


Over the past decade, and especially in recent months, the country has
been ramping up natural gas exploration and production in Algeria and
other corners of the African continent, including Nigeria, Egypt and
Mozambique. The country is seeking "a stranglehold on Western Europe"
that it could tighten - or threaten to tighten - anytime it wishes,
says Assis Malaquias, a defense economics expert at the Africa Center
for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C.

By 2015, experts say, Moscow's control of Europe's gas supply could
leap by as much as 10 percentage points to 40 percent. Moreover,
Southern European countries like Italy and Spain, which draw much of
their natural gas from North Africa, would join the list of those
affected by an increased Russian presence on the continent.

"Western Europe should be very concerned," Malaquias says. "Very."

With nearly half of the continent's gas supply in its grip, Russia's
leverage on the world stage would become enormous and subsequently
limit European and American options on any number of issues, from the
ongoing civil war in Syria, to the fuel supplies Russia provides for
American troops in Afghanistan, to another Ukraine-style land-grab in

Still, others warn Russia's moves should serve as a wake-up call to
American and European leaders. "You don't have to have a very cold
winter in Western Europe before citizens start getting upset,"
Malaquias says. "Gas is a commodity, but it's a special commodity.
It's not chocolate or coffee. You get a bit grumpy if you don't have a
cup of coffee, but you'll survive. Gas is different."

It's for this reason some urge Europe and the U.S. to act now - both
by investing in natural gas resources in Africa and by easing
restrictions on exports of American natural gas.

"Just because the situation isn't going to be immediate doesn't mean
the solution should be put off forever," Pham argues. "This is exactly
how Europe ended up in the vulnerable position it is now."

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.23% 2014


MTN said yesterday data revenue rose 43 percent in the first quarter
from a year earlier, representing 17 percent of sales across its 22
countries in Africa and the Middle East.


Vodacom discussed a content deal with Cape Town-based Naspers Ltd.
(NPN)'s Multichoice broadcast unit last year. Vodafone Group Plc
(VOD), Vodacom's Newbury, England-based parent, is in talks with
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) about access to the streaming service, three
people familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg this month.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.654


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9995


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +22.85% 2014 [Africa's Best in 2014]


8,247.47 47.41 -0.57%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.25% 2014 [+4.744% since Mar 19th]


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.41% 2014 [-6.685%
since Feb 21st 2014]


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Australian Navy seizes $290 million of heroin from boat off Kenya coast
Kenyan Economy

The Navy estimates the street value of the heroin at $290 million.

Crew from HMAS Darwin boarded the wooden boat east of Kenya and
discovered 46 sacks of heroin hidden among bags of cement.

The Navy says the drugs from the dhow were taken aboard HMAS Darwin.

The ship's commander Terry Morrison says the heroin seizure will put a
dent in terrorist funding networks.

"These drugs have now been seized and are about to be destroyed," he said.

"It's well known that these drugs assist terrorist organisations
through funding so that they can conduct violent acts.

"Today [HMAS] Darwin is proud to be able to remove these drugs from
that funding stream."


$290m on one Dhow informs us of the exponential nature of capital
formation in this business and then informs us how dangerous and
inexpensive it is for the Folks to hijack key Points within the State.

HMAS Darwin


The Australian High Commissioner in Nairobi was on Sunday summoned
over the seizure of Sh23.2 billion heroin haul off the Kenyan Coast.


The meeting between Foreign Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed and Mr
Geoff Tooth took place as Kenyan authorities maintained that they had
been kept in the dark regarding the shipment, which was seized by the
Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean last Thursday.

The heroin was packed in 46 sacks that were hidden among bags of
cement and was being transported in a dhow that was sailing
approximately 27 nautical miles from the Kenyan coastline.

A statement by the Australian Navy on Friday said the drug haul was
destroyed at sea.

It also did not reveal the identity of the boat, its owners as well as
the country it was registered in, and the fate of the crew.

@UKenyatta They assured me of their commitment to support my
Government in eliminating terror threats in the country @HCCTurner
@bobGodec David Angell @Geofftooth


President Uhuru Kenyatta formally asked Washington for help in
monitoring and securing its border with Somalia, and U.S. ambassador
to Kenya Robert Godec confirmed the indefinite deployment of FBI
agents to Kenya to assist in terrorism-related matters


MasterCard bags Equity, KCB in plastic money duel with Visa


KCB and Equity have signed up MasterCard to issue their customers with
new generation debit and credit cards, sparking a fierce battle for
control of Kenya's lucrative payments solutions market with rival Visa

KCB and Equity are Kenya's two top banks, accounting for more than
half or 52.4 per cent of total deposit accounts.

Supplying the two banks with plastic money solutions puts MasterCard
in a strong position to challenge Visa, which currently controls more
than 70 per cent of the plastic money market.

The New York-based firm has exploited the ongoing migration to PIN and
chip ATM cards to sign big-ticket deals with financial service
providers, including banks, supermarkets and co-operative societies,
for the supply of   new cards that allow cashless transactions dubbed
'tap and go'.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.827


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.106% in 2014 and at a record


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.605% 2014


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share could not make it 5 record breaking closes in a
row and eased by 0.01 of a point to close at 150.45.
The Nairobi All Share is +10.09% in 2014.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 1.38 points to close at 4958.16.
The Nairobi NSE20 is +0.649% in 2014 and will soon regain the Key 5,000 level.
Equity Turnover was 480.251m and in many counters Buyers outpaced
Sellers by a healthy margin.
Kenolkobil traded its highest volume session of 2014 and 16.689m
shares or 1.133% of the company.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Eaagads bounced a further 2.65% to close at 29.00. Eaagads is +22.105%
but has lagged a close to triple digit percentage Gain in Coffee
Futures this year.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 13.05 and traded 4.088m shares worth
53.342m. Safaricom is +20.276% and will set Fresh All Time Highs in
very short order and ahead of the Full Year Earnings Release. The All
Time High is 13.20 and was reached on 4 out of the last 10 Trading

Kenya Airways firmed 0.78% to close at 12.85 and traded 248,300 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank maintained its blistering April Rally and closed +2.75% at
37.25 and traded shares as high as 38.00 +4.83% during the session.
Equity Bank traded 2.316m shares worth 86.693m. Equity Bank has surged
+17.22% in April on better than consensus Estimates Q1 2014 Earnings
and apparently bold moves in the Mobile Phone/Mobile Money Space.
COOP Bank missed setting a Fresh All Time by the thinnest of possible
margins and closed unchanged at 22.75, which is a record. COOP Bank
traded 1.214m shares. COOP Bank is +28.16% in 2014.
Kenya Commercial Bank ticked 1.005% lower to close at 49.25 on light
trading of 418,900 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a wide margin at
the Finish Line signalling KCB is all set to test its all time Closing
High of 50.00 in very short order.

Housing Finance was the 2nd biggest Gainer and rallied 4.44% to close
at 35.25 and traded 253,500 shares. HFCK is +11.904% in 2014.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil eased 0.56% to close at 8.90 and traded its highest volume
session of 2014 with 16.689m shares and some 1.133% of the issued
shares worth 148.888m. KenolKobil has seen a spike in volumes since
releasing its FY 2013 Earnings. The 3 highest volume sessions in 2014
have all occurred in April. There well might be a Signal in the Noise
of volumes traded in April. KenolKobil reported a FY 2013 Profit After
Tax of 558.149m versus a FY Loss of 6.284575b in 2012. KenolKobil
slashed FY 2013 Turnover -43.027%.
Total Kenya firmed 3.00% to close at 25.75 and traded 52,400 shares.

EABL ticked 1.02% lower to close at 290.00 and traded 75,200 shares.
EABL has rallied +10.687% this month in a muscular bullish move.

BAT traded 24,200 shares and all at 566.00 +1.98%.

Kenya Orchards was the biggest Winner at the Securities Exchange and
traded 500 shares at 7.20 +9.92% Kenya Orchards has rallied 140% in
2014. The Market Cap is 92.88m Kenya Shillings and $1.068m.

Carbacid was marked down 6.77% to close at 31.00 and traded 326,300 shares.

Mumias Sugar ticked 1.56% better to close at 3.25 and traded 455,600
shares. Mumias Sugar has bounced 6.55% over 5 trading sessions.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2014

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