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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 29th of April 2014

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Can Africa curb illicit cash flow? Continent-wide problem results in over $1 trillion siphoned off since 1980 @AjEnglish

African leaders have been meeting in Bahir Dar in Ethiopia to find a
way to stop vast sums of money from being illegally taken out of

Many countries on the continent are experiencing remarkable economic
growth, but illegal financial dealings prevent this growth from
translating into better living conditions for many African citizens.

The cash outflow is the result of many factors, including poor
financial regulatory frameworks, weak and non-harmonised tax regimes
and opaque public procurement and contracting. Criminal networks are
also to blame.

But what will it take to properly address the issue? And is political
will alone enough?

Presenter: Hazem Sika


James Schneider, editor of Think Africa Press. He specialises in
equitable development in Africa.

Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich Management. He is also an economist and author.

Francois Ndengwe, founder of the African Advisory Board, which deals
with economic development, and a founding member of the Congress of
African Economists.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I finished the Secret Agent last night.

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The Secret Agent by Joseph Conrad

- Joseph Conrad, The Secret Agent, Ch. 3
"They swarmed numerous like locust, industrious like ants, thoughtless
like a natural force, pushing on blind and orderly and absorbed,
impervious to sentiment, to logic, to terror, too perhaps."

read more

There are different schools of thought about how this can be achieved, but loosely speaking they fall into two categories, “dragon slayers” and “panda huggers”.
Law & Politics

Dragon slayers favor a strategy of containment while panda huggers
favor engagement

Obama wants to draw the Kremlin into a protracted civil war that will
weaken Russia, discredit Putin, and shift public opinion to the side
of the US and NATO.

So there you have it: It looks like Obama’s provocations WILL draw
Putin into the fray after all. But will things turn out the way that
Obama thinks they will?  Will Putin follow Washington’s script and
leave his troops in the east where they’ll be picked off by US-funded
paramilitary guerillas and neo Nazis or does he have something else up
his sleeve, like a quick blitz to Kiev to remove the junta government,
call for international peacekeepers to quell the violence, and slip
back over the border to safety?

Whatever the strategy may be, we won’t have to wait long to see it
implemented.   If Yatsenyuk’s army attacks Slavyansk, then Putin’s
going to send in the tanks and it’ll be a whole new ballgame.


President @BarackObama drew a red line and in a manner as
incontestable as flying two B-52s directly into the ADIZ at the end of
last year. The comparison between the Syrian red line and the Senkakus
is kind of spurious. Erdogan's fingerprints were all over the Trigger
Event in Syria and to advocate intervening on such a compromised
pretext was a cockamamie idea. I am
surprised that the US is pivoting in two directions simultaneously ie
both to Ukraine/Russia and to Asia/China. Nevertheless one senses that
the US Security complex senses it has a decisive advantage now and
that this is et to erode. The Nature of Advantages is you need to
press them. The President has been a sophisticated and aggressive
exponent of a new kind of c21st warcraft. The weak @Barackobama Canard
is cute but its a nonsense.

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President Obama & Philippine's President Benigno Aquino raise glasses for a toast during State Dinner inside n Manila
Law & Politics

President Obama participates in a meeting with PM Mohammed Najib
Abdul Razak in Kuala Lumpur (Photo by @PeteSouza).




Obama’s visit to the Philippines is the last stop on a seven-day tour
of Asia designed to underscore the Administration’s desire to
“rebalance” America’s military, diplomatic, and economic resources
away from the economic and political sinkhole of the Middle East.
Obama was met with pageantry in Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia,
though over-all the trip has been a reminder of the difficulties
America faces in expanding its role in the region. The U.S. and Japan
cited progress on trade talks, but stopped short of announcing a deal
that could have hastened the adoption of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, a sweeping pact that would cut trade barriers in twelve
Asia-Pacific nations. Tom Donilon, Obama’s former National Security
Advisor and an architect of the Asia-focussed policy, argues that, if
it can be achieved, the trade deal will “solidify U.S. leadership in
Asia [and] put the United States at the center of a great project:
writing the rules that will govern the global economy for the next

Vladimir Putin’s excursion into Ukraine and Crimea, moreover, puts
Chinese leaders in an uncomfortable position: to support the
annexation of Crimea is to condone the violation of sovereignty and
territorial integrity, a taboo in Chinese diplomatic doctrine because
the Beijing government fears that, someday, its own restive western
regions could seek to break away.

After relying for four decades on a low-key diplomatic strategy known
as taoguang yanghui—hide your strength and bide your time—China no
longer shies away from acknowledging its ambitions to resume primacy
in a region that it considers its backyard. At home, the Chinese
President, Xi Jinping, has recommitted himself to the unquestioned
rule of the Communist Party, and in his diplomatic dealings he has
pursued what he terms the “great renewal of the Chinese nation.”

President Obama’s trip is a signal of renewed commitment to Asia, but
it has produced few definitive signs that the U.S. is making progress
in its bid for leadership. After a decade in which American
commitments in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the European financial crisis
impaired the U.S.’s ability to engage with Asia, that underlying
dynamic is, it seems, finally changing. Half of the world’s economic
production is in Asia; it is the top destination for American exports,
and, by the end of this decade, the U.S. will have shifted its share
of naval resources in the Pacific to sixty per cent of its global
assets. It will be up to President Obama, and the President who
succeeds him, to decide just how far the United States is prepared to
go to extend its influence in Asia.


The President @Barackobama has certainly caught me by the surprise in
that he is pivoting simultaneously in two directions, Asia/China and
Ukraine/Russia. The Pivot to Asia is surely a strategy of encirclement
and maintaining a Gatekeeper Status via ''distant blockade
operations.'' The President is subtle but increasingly aggressive and
adversarial. One senses the Hard Power Advantage is compelling at this
moment and as incontestable as flying B-52s right into the ADIZ and
the nature of an advantage is you need to press it. The Red line
Business is a canard. The President would have been reckless to have
moved against Syria when all kinds of fingerprints were all over the
Trigger Event. Aly-Khan Satchu

@Aiww The Snake [Chinese accused Washington of trying to "cage" China]


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Muhammad Badie (Arabic: محمد بديع‎ Muḥammad Badīʿ) is the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood
Law & Politics

[1] He has headed the Egyptian branch of the international Muslim
Brotherhood organization since 2010. Before becoming general guide,
Badie had been a member of the group's governing council, the Guidance
Bureau, since 1996. He was arrested by Egyptian authorities on 20
August 2013.[2] On 28 April 2014 he was sentenced to death. [3]

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3863 yesterday, it touched $1.3879, the highest since April 11.
Dollar Index 79.66
Japan Yen 102.50 Japan’s markets are shut today for a national holiday.
Swiss Franc 0.8798
Pound 1.6814 The pound traded little changed at $1.6813 after reaching
$1.6858 yesterday, the highest since November 2009.
Aussie 0.9247 Australia’s dollar fell 0.2 percent to 92.42 U.S. cents
after touching 92.28, the least since April 4.
“The iron-ore price fall is starting to get a little eye-catching,”
said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking
Corp. “That’s one factor that may be hurting the Aussie.”
Prices for iron ore delivered to China’s port of Tianjin fell
yesterday to the lowest since March 12, according to data from The
Steel Index. The steel-making material is Australia’s largest export
India Rupee 60.54
South Korea Won 1031.71
Brazil Real 2.2234
Egypt Pound 6.9999
South Africa Rand 10.6307

Deutsche Bank AG’s foreign-exchange volatility index dropped 25 basis
points to 6.24 percent, the lowest since July 2007.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.66 [in a slumber]


The Fed will probably cut its monthly asset-purchase stimulus program
by another $10 billion to $45 billion tomorrow, a Bloomberg News poll
of economists shows. Policy makers will continue to taper at that pace
until ending the program at the Oct. 28-29 meeting, economists

Sterling versus The Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 1.6814 [targets 1.7350]


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3863


@Samsung Electronics Co Ltd's smartphone shipments rose 28 percent to
89 million units in the first quarter


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1295.03 [I expect a much lower Price in 2014]


Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to
$1,293.77 an ounce, and traded at $1,295.12 at 11:53 a.m. in
Singapore. Prices are up 0.9 percent this month after dropping 3.2
percent in March, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 100.89


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For the 12 months to April 16 2014 the MSCI Frontier Markets index delivered a return of 18.5 per cent, outperforming the MSCI indices for Europe, North America, AC World and Emerging Markets.
Frontier Markets

The same is true for the year-to-date performance figures, with data
from FE Analytics showing the MSCI Frontier Markets index return of
11.32 per cent significantly outstripping its nearest rival, the MSCI
Europe index, which produced a return of 0.32 per cent.

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Angolan State Visit to France: Implications for the West Chatham House

Angola President José Eduardo dos Santos’s two-day state visit to
France begins today, marking a significant improvement of bilateral
relations but also signalling that Angola is wishing to re-invest in
its relationship with Western partners.

France and Angola established diplomatic relations in 1977 and in the
1990s President dos Santos regularly spent his summer holidays in
France and French business enjoying privileged access in Angola.

But bilateral relations soured due to ‘Angolagate’, a French judicial
investigation over arms sales to Angola worth $790m in 1993-2000, in
which numerous French and Angolan officials allegedly received
pay-offs and gifts worth $56m. After a seven-year investigation, the
French judiciary decided to prosecute 42 people including
Jean-Christophe Mitterrand, Pierre Falcone and Arcady Gaydamak (the
last two had Angolan passports and were closely linked to the Angolan
presidency). The investigation hugely embarrassed the Angolan
government with numerous allegations of bribe-taking and shady
dealings by Angolan officials during the investigation.

Sentences for the ‘Angolagate’ affair were handed down on 27 October
2009, with former French interior minister Charles Pasqua and
Jean-Charles Marchiani (a French prefect and politician) found guilty
of taking money from Gaydamak and Falcone while knowing it was
proceeds of crime. Jean-Christophe Mitterrand was found guilty of
receiving $2 million from Falcone and Gaydamak to promote their
interests. In total, 36 individuals were convicted of various levels
of involvement in the scandal and 21 of them appealed the decision.

The Paris Court of Appeal’s decision in April 2011 overturned the
conviction of Charles Pasqua as well as Jean-Charles Marchiani’s. The
charges against Pierre Falcone and Arcadi Gaydamak were also dropped.

French business was impacted by ‘Angolagate’: Air France lost
lucrative air slots to Luanda and serving contracts for TAAG Airlines,
the Angolan state flag carrier, in 2004 the Angolan government refused
to renew Total's licence for shallow-water oil Block 3/80, and in 2005
it forced the company to relinquish unexplored acreages in
ultra-deepwater oil Block 17.

French officials and businesses have worked tirelessly over the last
decade to rebuild bilateral relations. The initial breakthrough came
in October 2007 during the UN General Assembly when President dos
Santos and then-French president Nicholas Sarkozy met privately for
the first time. This was followed by a presidential visit by Sarkozy
to Angola in May 2008, during which time dos Santos was invited to
officially visit France.

It has taken almost six years for him to take up this invitation, with
planned visits postponed several times. A flurry of bilateral visits
paved the way over the last 12 months helped this normalization: a
French parliamentary group visited Luanda in September 2013, French
Minister of Foreign Affairs Laurent Fabius visited Angola in November
with a trade delegation and presented a fresh invitation for President
dos Santos, and finally Angolan Foreign Minister George Chikoti signed
a memorandum of understanding for abolishing visas for diplomats in
December. Today France is the sixth-largest source of imports for
Angola after Portugal, the US, China, Brazil and South Africa and was
the third-largest source of FDI in Angola in 2012. In addition to
meeting President François Hollande and hundreds of French business
people at the Elysee during this state visit, President dos Santos
will also address the French senate.

Following a visit to the Vatican on 2 May, President dos Santos hoped
to visit the United Kingdom as an official guest of the British
government. This would have been his first trip to Britain since 1992,
although over the years several invitations had been made. Late
confirmation that Prime Minister David Cameroon would receive him
resulted in a postponement of this visit to at least the autumn.
Unlike in Paris, the British civil service was slow to respond to
Angola’s sudden interest in a presidential visit to the UK, despite
declaring Angola as one of its high-level prosperity partners for
trade in late 2013.

Britain could learn from the French experience and should send Foreign
Secretary William Hague to Luanda (thereby accepting an outstanding
invitation he received when Angolan Foreign Minister Chikoti visited
London officially in 2012). Indeed Hague’s American counterpart John
Kerry is visiting Luanda shortly and is scheduled to meet President
dos Santos to commend him on his engagement in the peace process in
Africa's Great Lakes region. President dos Santos holds the acting
presidency of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region,
and is rightly achieving international recognition for his efforts.

The timing of this Angolan State visit to Paris is not coincidental:
over the last 18 months Angola’s presidency has become more ambitious
internationally possibly signalling that President dos Santos is
looking for legacies after 34 years in power. France and Angola also
have a common strategic interest in central Africa, which has been
designated as a key strategic priority for Angolan foreign policy. The
importance Paris has placed on improved Franco-Angolan relations is
not just about growing bilateral trade but recognition that when it
comes to central Africa, Angola is increasingly a regional anchor
state for peace and security.


Angola is the biggest Military Spender in SSA ahead of South Africa.

O Presidente de Angola, José Eduardo dos Santos


Investments from Africa leapt by 57% in 2013, mainly on the back of
investment flows from South Africa and Nigeria. South African TNCs
invested in telecommunications, mining and retail while those from
Nigeria focused largely on financial services. Intra-African
investments rose significantly during the year. UNCTAD


28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel @IMFnews
Regional Economic Outlook SSA #Africarising


LAST Thursday I attended the release of the International Monetary
Fund’s 2014 sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook at the Serena
Hotel. The Amani room reminded me of my days on the trading floor.
Antoinette Sayeh, head of the IMF Africa department, Cabinet Secretary
for National Treasury Henry Rotich, Diariétou Gaye of the World Bank,
the always sprightly Manu Chandaria were all in attendance. It’s a big
ticket event and an important release.

Africa, in my view, is the least linear of continents. Directionally,
the continent is on the upswing and the IMF projected SSA’s GDP will
expand 5.5 per cent this year from 4.9 per cent in 2013. GDP growth is
the condition precedent of the #AfricaRising story. However, you have
to admit there is always a lot of zig zag. The IMF’s REO gives us a
bird’s eye view. Too often, I find we get entrenched in the reality of
our own situation. The Economic Outlook gives us a chance to take a
look at the bigger African canvas.

The IMF cautioned: “This solid near-term outlook is nonetheless
subject to downside risks. External factors pose by far the more
potent threats to the region as a whole, but domestic risks are more
significant in some countries.’’

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Investors trek to African funds

“There is a growing amount of money being allocated off a low base.
The flows into frontier markets would be a few billion dollars –
anywhere between $3 billion and $4 billion, which is significant
compared to the total assets, but peanuts compared to emerging

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.23% 2014

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.63


South Africa’s ruling party delayed parliamentary hearings into
allegations that President Jacob Zuma unduly benefited from a state
funded 215 million rand ($20 million) home upgrade until after May 7


“You are shielding President Zuma from scrutiny,” Wilmot James, chief
whip for the main opposition Democratic Alliance, said at the hearing.
“What is happening here is scandalous.”

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9999


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +21.82% 2014


8,165.96 -81.51 -0.99%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.98% 2014


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.65% 2014 [-7.35%
since 21st Feb 2014]


Milan-based Eni, is considering building a multi-billion dollar
floating liquefied natural gas plant (FLNG) off the coast of
Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province.


Eni holds a controlling stake in the Mozambique’s gas-rich offshore
Area 4 field at its Mamba 1 North and Mamba 1 South concessions in the
Rovuma basin. Eni has been operating in the southeastern African
nation since 2006.

On April 15, Eni released a “Public Announcement for Expression of
Interest” in a 2.5 million metric ton per annum FLNG. The announcement
invited companies that could build such a plant to express their
interest, which would lead to “a potential Invitation to Tender
package” from Eni.

Eni’s Mamba share holds 50 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of in-place gas,
while about 35 tcf is in Eni’s Area 4 concessions.

Eni is the operator of Area 4, with an indirect 50 percent
participating interest owned by Eni East Africa, which holds 70
percent of Area 4. The other partners are Galp Energia (10 percent),
KOGAS (10 percent) and ENH (10 percent, exploration phase only). In
Area 4, CNPC holds an indirect stake of 20 percent through Eni East

Africa looms large in Eni’s future. The company’s 2014-2017 strategic
plan states, “Over the next four years, Eni will continue to focus on
exploration… Key areas for Eni’s exploration are Mozambique and Kenya
in East Africa, Congo, Angola and Gabon in West Africa…”

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Kenya Re-Insurance FY PAT 2013 +7.085% Earnings here share price is +32.25% in 2014
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           20.50
Total Shares Issued:          700000000.00
Market Capitalization:        14,350,000,000
EPS:             4.29
PE:                4.778

Leading reinsurance and insurance provider.

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013

FY Gross Premium Written 9.645151b versus 7.944183b +21.411%
FY Net Earned Premium 8.581830b versus 7.054315b +21.65%
FY Investment Income 2.277749b versus 2.651422b -14.093%
Fair Value gains on revaluation of investment properties 441.588m
versus 523.008m
FY Net Income 11.404605b versus 10.393193b
FY Net Claims incurred [4.723170b] versus [4.061577b]
FY Total Expenses [3.669632b] versus [3.592915b]
FY Profit before Tax 3.268803b versus 2.944635b +11.008%
FY Profit after Tax 3.000431b versus 2.801892b +7.085%
FY EPS 4.29 versus 4.00 +7.25%


On a PE Basis Kenya Re is the least expensive insurance share by a wide margin.

Regulator on the spot as yuMobile deal stalls


On Friday, 28 February, three chief executives of telcom firms went to
the Communications Commission of Kenya offices to close a deal meant
to see yuMobile exit Kenya.

Two months down the line the transaction seems to have stalled, with
yuMobile now accusing the regulator of scuttling its plan.

In an interview with Smart Company, yuMobile chief executive Madhur
Taneja said CCK’s decision to tie the deal to a raft of new, strict
rules has complicated the transaction, making it difficult for the
company to leave the market.

Under the CCK’s proposed regulations, both Airtel and Safaricom would
have to open up their infrastructure, mobile money agency networks,
and SIM registration centres to all existing and new telcom firms if
they wish to seal the transaction.

Mr Taneja questioned the regulator’s decision to tie the deal to the
new measures purported to be aimed at improving competition in the
industry. He said the rules could be introduced independently.

The regulator has over the years unsuccessfully tried to enforce
sharing of infrastructure.

“We have been fighting to get the regulator to enforce infrastructure
sharing in the industry for years. This never happened until yuMobile
announced an acquisition deal and we don’t understand why. If these
conditions were enforced earlier, we wouldn’t have contemplated
leaving the market in the first place,” the CEO noted.

The fresh rules state that Airtel and Safaricom would have to commit
in writing to opening up their platforms to existing and new market
entrants for the deal to be completed.

Valued at about Sh8.6 billion, the transaction would see Safaricom
acquire yuMobile’s infrastructure while Airtel would take over the
company’s customers, GSM licences, and subscriber contracts.

Facing collapse in the Kenyan market, India’s Essar Telecom, which
owns yuMobile, has over the past few years unsuccessfully sought
buyers for its business.

The complexity of the imposed conditions, Mr Taneja said, means that
the deal cannot be closed any time soon, given that the two firms will
need time to study and consult widely on the impact of the rules on
their businesses.

“All of them are important decisions for this industry, but we don’t
understand what they have to do with this particular transaction.
These are measures that can be enforced outside this transaction,” Mr
Taneja told Smart Company.

Mr Madhur said it would paint a bad picture of the country to foreign
investors if the company loses “the best deal we could have gotten”
due to the regulator’s decisions.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that CCK is currently
undergoing board reconstitution following the enactment of the Kenya
Information and Communication Act.

“We can’t even seek further clarification or recourse on this matter,
now that CCK does not have a board. This transaction has become very
complicated and might take very long to conclude,” Mr Taneja said.

In March, Safaricom said it had pulled out of the deal, citing delays
in getting approvals from the industry regulator.

Chief executive Bob Collymore said then that the company was no longer
interested in the Sh8.6 billion joint deal with Airtel Kenya.

“We have pulled out of this deal, unfortunately. We can’t waste more
time waiting for CCK to say a word about this. It’s been a month now
and the regulator has said nothing about it. We feel the delay is too
much and for us the takeover is something that was time-bound,” said
Mr Collymore.


Yu is now in a Death Spiral.

Sundance film festival: the changing face of Kenya - video


Source: SundanceLength: 8min 19sec theguardian.com Monday 28 April 201

Segera Retreat, Laikipia CONDÉ NAST TRAVELER // HOT LIST 2014 //


Most people go to an East African lodge in order to see the Big Five,
but at Segera, owner Jochen Zeitz has created something that offers
much more than just wildlife spotting. A visit here is like being a
guest at his house: The eight villas (which accommodate either two or
four people each) are set on his working cattle ranch amid 50,000
acres of preserved wilderness, yet have all the comforts you could
wish for, including huge bathrooms, oversized beds whose canopies are
draped with billowing mosquito nets, and local art from Zeitz’s own
collection. Evenings for me started with a bath in the big stone tub
on the deck at villa No. 5 (five of the villas have outdoor bathtubs)
while watching herds of zebras and gazelles galloping over the
savanna. Then I’d grab fireside cocktails at the bar, followed by
dinner in the Wine Tower: a concrete, cone-shaped, aboveground cellar
with 2,100 bottles (shown here). Every aspect of your stay is tailored
to what you want—who could ask for anything more? –David Crookes

Segera Retreat, Laikipia


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.804


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.09% in 2014.


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.649% in 2014

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2014

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