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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 04th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Dr. @rsezibera There is no better place that I can think of being than at #Mindspeak #EAC @JUMAIYA @Interconnairobi
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I am completing my Email from the Airport and am headed for a rather
exciting weekend '' a customer ride and drive experience'' in
Johannesburg with RMA Motors [Kenya].

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Land Rover Experience Kyalami @RMAKenya
Africa


I have certainly gained some credibility with my Teenagers.

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艾未未 Ai Weiwei ‏@aiww RT @alykhansatchu: @Aiww What's in a Name?
Africa


“A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: no matter how poor or how rich:
all living people have a name and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and blessings.”

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Hagel on Russia: It's a Dangerous World Out There Bloomberg TV
Law & Politics


DON DeLillo in his book, Cosmopolis, says: “Everything is barely
weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live.”  31-MAR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX3103.pdf

Zuma, Mugabe stay home as EU and African leaders meet in Brussels Yahoo

http://news.yahoo.com/zuma-mugabe-stay-home-eu-african-leaders-meet-170216841.html

Following Mugabe's protest, South Africa's Zuma also decided to stay
at home, sending his foreign minister instead.

"The theme we have chosen addresses the everyday concerns of our
citizens - their safety and security, their job prospects and their
future as families and individuals," he said.

The European Union is far and away Africa's biggest development
partner, providing more than 140 billion euros in aid between 2007 and
2013, including 18 billion in 2012 - nearly half the world's aid to
the continent.

But the point of the summit is to try to move beyond emergency or
development help and build "partnerships" in areas such as health,
education, energy, agriculture, climate change and issues such as
democracy and human rights.

At the same time, the EU this week formally committed forces to a
peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic, a reminder
that peace and stability are a pre-requisite for any closer trade and
investment relations.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3712
Dollar Index 80.49
Japan Yen 103.92
Swiss Franc 0.8920
Pound 1.6586
Aussie 0.9236
India Rupee 60.31
South Korea Won 1056.45
Brazil Real 2.2794
Egypt Pound 6.9709
South Africa Rand 10.6370

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.49 [Its nascent but its a move higher]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3712 [Draghi talks easing]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 103.92

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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US SECRETLY CREATED 'CUBAN TWITTER' TO STIR UNREST @AP
Frontier Markets


WASHINGTON (AP) — In July 2010, Joe McSpedon, a U.S. government
official, flew to Barcelona to put the final touches on a secret plan
to build a social media project aimed at undermining Cuba's communist
government.

McSpedon and his team of high-tech contractors had come in from Costa
Rica and Nicaragua, Washington and Denver. Their mission: to launch a
messaging network that could reach hundreds of thousands of Cubans. To
hide the network from the Cuban government, they would set up a
byzantine system of front companies using a Cayman Islands bank
account, and recruit unsuspecting executives who would not be told of
the company's ties to the U.S. government.

McSpedon didn't work for the CIA. This was a program paid for and run
by the U.S. Agency for International Development, best known for
overseeing billions of dollars in U.S. humanitarian aid.

According to documents obtained by The Associated Press and multiple
interviews with people involved in the project, the plan was to
develop a bare-bones "Cuban Twitter," using cellphone text messaging
to evade Cuba's strict control of information and its stranglehold
restrictions over the Internet. In a play on Twitter, it was called
ZunZuneo — slang for a Cuban hummingbird's tweet.

Documents show the U.S. government planned to build a subscriber base
through "non-controversial content": news messages on soccer, music,
and hurricane updates. Later when the network reached a critical mass
of subscribers, perhaps hundreds of thousands, operators would
introduce political content aimed at inspiring Cubans to organize
"smart mobs" — mass gatherings called at a moment's notice that might
trigger a Cuban Spring, or, as one USAID document put it, "renegotiate
the balance of power between the state and society."

But the ZunZuneo program muddies those claims, a sensitive issue for
its mission to promote democracy and deliver aid to the world's poor
and vulnerable — which requires the trust of foreign governments.

"On the face of it there are several aspects about this that are
troubling," said Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. and chairman of the
Appropriations Committee's State Department and foreign operations
subcommittee.

"There is the risk to young, unsuspecting Cuban cellphone users who
had no idea this was a U.S. government-funded activity. There is the
clandestine nature of the program that was not disclosed to the
appropriations subcommittee with oversight responsibility. And there
is the disturbing fact that it apparently activated shortly after Alan
Gross, a USAID subcontractor who was sent to Cuba to help provide
citizens access to the Internet, was arrested."

In mid-2009, Noy Villalobos, a manager with Creative Associates who
had worked with USAID in the 1990s on a program to eradicate drug
crops, started an IM chat with her little brother in Nicaragua,
according to a Creative Associates email that captured the
conversation. Mario Bernheim, in his mid-20s, was an up-and-coming
techie who had made a name for himself as a computer whiz.

"This is very confidential of course," Villalobos cautioned her
brother. But what could you do if you had all the cellphone numbers of
a particular country? Could you send bulk text messages without the
government knowing?

"Can you encrypt it or something?" she texted.

She was looking for a direct line to regular Cubans through text
messaging. Most had precious little access to news from the outside
world. The government viewed the Internet as an Achilles' heel and
controlled it accordingly. A communications minister had even referred
to it as a "wild colt" that "should be tamed."

Yet in the years since Fidel Castro handed over power to his brother
Raul, Cuba had sought to jumpstart the long stagnant economy. Raul
Castro began encouraging cellphone use, and hundreds of thousands of
people were suddenly using mobile phones for the first time, though
smartphones with access to the Internet remained restricted.

Cubans could text message, though at a high cost in a country where
the average wage was a mere $20 a month.

Bernheim told his sister that he could figure out a way to send
instant texts to hundreds of thousands of Cubans— for cheap. It could
not be encrypted though, because that would be too complicated. They
wouldn't be able to hide the messages from the Cuban government, which
owned Cubacel. But they could disguise who was sending the texts by
constantly switching the countries the messages came from.

"We could rotate it from different countries?" Villalobos asked. "Say
one message from Nica, another from Spain, another from Mexico"?

Bernheim could do that. "But I would need mirrors set up around the
world, mirrors, meaning the same computer, running with the same
platform, with the same phone."

"No hay problema," he signed off. No problem.

After the chat, Creative hired Bernheim as a subcontractor, reporting
to his sister. (Villalobos and Bernheim would later confirm their
involvement with the ZunZuneo project to AP, but decline further
comment.) Bernheim, in turn, signed up the Cuban engineer who had
gotten the phone list. The team figured out how to message the masses
without detection, but their ambitions were bigger.

Creative Associates envisioned using the list to create a social
networking system that would be called "Proyecto ZZ," or "Project ZZ."
The service would start cautiously and be marketed chiefly to young
Cubans, who USAID saw as the most open to political change.

"We should gradually increase the risk," USAID proposed in a document.
It advocated using "smart mobs" only in "critical/opportunistic
situations and not at the detriment of our core platform-based
network."

USAID's team of contractors and subcontractors built a companion
website to its text service so Cubans could subscribe, give feedback
and send their own text messages for free. They talked about how to
make the website look like a real business. "Mock ad banners will give
it the appearance of a commercial enterprise," a proposal suggested.

In multiple documents, USAID staff pointed out that text messaging had
mobilized smart mobs and political uprisings in Moldova and the
Philippines, among others. In Iran, the USAID noted social media's
role following the disputed election of then President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in June 2009 — and saw it as an important foreign policy
tool.

USAID documents say their strategic objective in Cuba was to "push it
out of a stalemate through tactical and temporary initiatives, and get
the transition process going again towards democratic change."
Democratic change in authoritarian Cuba meant breaking the Castros'
grip on power.

USAID divided Cuban society into five segments depending on loyalty to
the government. On one side sat the "democratic movement," called
"still (largely) irrelevant," and at the other end were the "hard-core
system supporters," dubbed "Talibanes" in a derogatory comparison to
Afghan and Pakistani extremists.

A key question was how to move more people toward the democratic
activist camp without detection. Bernheim assured the team that
wouldn't be a problem.

"The Cuban government, like other regimes committed to information
control, currently lacks the capacity to effectively monitor and
control such a service," Bernheim wrote in a proposal for USAID marked
"Sensitive Information."

ZunZuneo would use the list of phone numbers to break Cuba's Internet
embargo and not only deliver information to Cubans but also let them
interact with each other in a way the government could not control.
Eventually it would build a system that would let Cubans send messages
anonymously among themselves.

At a strategy meeting, the company discussed building "user volume as
a cover ... for organization," according to meeting notes. It also
suggested that the "Landscape needs to be large enough to hide full
opposition members who may sign up for service."

In February 2010, the company introduced Cubans to ZunZuneo and began
marketing. Within six months, it had almost 25,000 subscribers,
growing faster and drawing more attention than the USAID team could
control.

Saimi Reyes Carmona was a journalism student at the University of
Havana when she stumbled onto ZunZuneo. She was intrigued by the
service's novelty, and the price. The advertisement said "free
messages" so she signed up using her nickname, Saimita.

At first, ZunZuneo was a very tiny platform, Reyes said during a
recent interview in Havana, but one day she went to its website and
saw its services had expanded.

"I began sending one message every day," she said, the maximum allowed
at the start. "I didn't have practically any followers." She was
thrilled every time she got a new one.

And then ZunZuneo exploded in popularity.

"The whole world wanted in, and in a question of months I had 2,000
followers who I have no idea who they are, nor where they came from."

She let her followers know the day of her birthday, and was surprised
when she got some 15 personal messages. "This is the coolest thing
I've ever seen!" she told her boyfriend, Ernesto Guerra Valdes, also a
journalism student.

Before long, Reyes learned she had the second highest number of
followers on the island, after a user called UCI, which the students
figured was Havana's University of Computer Sciences. Her boyfriend
had 1,000. The two were amazed at the reach it gave them.

"It was such a marvelous thing," Guerra said. "So noble." He and Reyes
tried to figure out who was behind ZunZuneo, since the technology to
run it had to be expensive, but they found nothing. They were grateful
though.

"We always found it strange, that generosity and kindness," he said.
ZunZuneo was "the fairy godmother of cellphones."

"The moment when ZunZuneo disappeared was like a vacuum," Guerra said.
"People texted my phone, 'What is happening with ZunZuneo?'

"In the end, we never learned what happened," he said. "We never
learned where it came from."

read more


17-SEP-2012 :: "One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims." The Madding Crowd
Frontier Markets


Now set these events alongside these comments from the US army war
college quarterly 1997. The US officer assigned to the deputy chief of
staff (Intelligence), charged with defining the future of warfare,
wrote "One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the
conflict between information masters and information victims."

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of
geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be "spawned" - like any
Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. "Hatred, jealousy, and greed -
emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information
warfare] struggles".

read more


South Sudan on verge of Africa's worst famine since 1980s: UN
Africa


"If we miss the planting season, there will be a catastrophic decline
in food security," Toby Lanzer, the UN's top aid official in the
country, told reporters in Geneva.

"What will strike that country, and it will hit about seven million
people, will be more grave than anything that continent has seen since
the mid-1980s," he warned, referring to the massive famine in Ethiopia
that shocked the world's conscience.

South Sudanese farmers usually plant their fields in April and May,
but they have been unable to start this year amid a raging civil war.

"We've got 3.7 million people who are already at severe risk of
starvation," Lanzer said.

If people can't make it to their fields in the next two months, he
said, "it doesn't take much to imagine what will happen when the
harvest is due in November and December: There won't be one".

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.33% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.63775

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9717

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +14.35% 2014 [has retreated sharply since 25th March]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,701.11 -228.96 -2.89%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.61% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.83% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Liberia is reporting a separate outbreak of suspected Ebola, nowhere
near its border with Guinea @AFP

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Liberia-reports-suspected-Ebola-outbreak-20140403

The fruit bat, thought to be the host of the highly contagious Ebola
virus, is a delicacy in the region straddling Guinea, Liberia and
Sierra Leone, and experts suspect huntsmen may be the source of the
outbreak.

read more



Support infrastructure investment, Uhuru tells EU-Africa Summit
Kenyan Economy


European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (left) and EU
Council president Herman Van Rompuy (right) welcome Kenya's President
Uhuru Kenyatta prior to the 4th EU-Africa summit on April 2,2014 in
Brussels. PHOTO/AFP

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Support-infrastructure-investment-Uhuru-tells-EU-Africa-Summit/-/539546/2268800/-/fs67xn/-/index.html

The National and county governments spent a massive Sh211.6 billion on
salaries and operations in the first six of this financial year, an
audit by the Controller of Budget reveals.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000108503/kenya-spent-sh211-6b-to-pay-workforce-in-first-six-months

NAIROBI, KENYA: The National and county governments spent a massive
Sh211.6 billion on salaries and operations in the first six of this
financial year, an audit by the Controller of Budget reveals. This is
more than three-quarters of the total amount spent during the period
as the governments only used Sh70.5 billion on development.

Kenya’s wage bill stands at 12 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). This compares what the country pays in wages to what it
produces. For Kenya this is quite high because the global best
practice is for wages to be 7 per cent of GDP.

Conclusions

@TullowOilPLC tops the FTSE 100's leaderboard, rising by around 4
percent which traders attribute to UBS' decision to upgrade its rating
on the stock to "buy" from "neutral"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-news-europe-tullow-oil-073622415.html

"The investment case for Tullow shares has clearly changed. Less
evident for the time being is the high impact offshore explorer. In
its place is a different animal, with greater leverage to development
risk but with significant onshore exploration upside," UBS analysts
write in a research note.

Tullow made its name over the past decade by opening new oil areas in
Ghana and Uganda, but after a string of disappointing drilling results
it lost a quarter of its value in 2013 and was the worst-performing
stock in the FTSE 100 outside of the mining sector.

Tullow has since been pinning its hopes on two new discoveries in
northern Kenya to turn the region into a significant crude producer
and regain its reputation as a successful explorer.

Tullow shares are up by 3.9 percent at 781.50 pence by 0730 GMT,
making it the best-performing stock on the FTSE 100 and also on the
pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index.

However, in spite of the rise, the stock remains down by around 9
percent since the start of 2014 - underperforming a 1 percent fall on
the FTSE 100.

Conclusions

Hunting Elephants in East Africa 23rd April 2012 The Star

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2304.pdf

One of my greatest pleasures is watching and tracking elephants. I
recall turning a corner in the Masai Mara and finding myself alone
except for a herd of over 100 elephants. I have watched a documentary
about the elephants of Kilimanjaro and I learnt that elephants mourn
their dead just like we do. They actually caress the bones of the
departed and apparently never forget. When I left London, I naturally
kept myself plugged into the information loop and a stream of research
has been landing in my inbox. The latest arrival was issued by UBS and
its tagline was Oil & Gas Hunting Elephants in East Africa’s rift
basins. It really is worth a read. The thrust of the report is that
the great game is on and it is in play in East Africa.

In this report, UBS estimates that Kenya alone might have 6 Lake
Albert basins equivalents. I have seen a report that compares Somalia
to Kuwait. The gas find in Mozambique is variously estimated to be
equivalent to 2m barrels of crude oil equivalent per day for 50 years.
These are very big numbers. East Africa is like a brand new freshly
minted debutante at her coming out party. Understanding the fact that
the prize is a c21st Koh-I-Noor diamond, helps us better comprehend
the geopolitical power plays that are taking place. What is clear is
that we are the swing state, the geopolitical pivot. The reason being
that we are the transit state. Juba [the breach with Khartoum is
evidently an irreparable one], Uganda, Omo Delta, Ethiopia all have to
come through Mombasa or Lamu to reach global markets.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.611
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.312% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.58% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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