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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 08th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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I am reading Paul Theroux's The Last Train to Zona Verde
Africa


“The wish to travel seems to me characteristically human: the desire
to move, to satisfy your curiosity or ease your fears, to change the
circumstances of your life, to be a stranger, to make a friend, to
experience an exotic landscape, to risk the unknown..”
― Paul Theroux, The Tao of Travel: Enlightenments from Lives on the Road

read more




US Secretary of State John Kerry told Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in a phone call that any Russian efforts at destabilisation "would incur costs".
Law & Politics


US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that in the telephone
call, Mr Kerry "called on Russia to publicly disavow the activities of
separatists, saboteurs and provocateurs" in Ukraine.

She said Mr Kerry noted that the actions in eastern Ukraine "do not
appear to be a spontaneous set of events".

"He made clear that any further Russian efforts to destabilise Ukraine
will incur further costs for Russia," Ms Psaki said.

The US and the EU have already imposed targeted sanctions on Russian
and Ukrainian individuals over the annexation of Crimea.

Mr Lavrov, in an article on the website of the UK's Guardian
newspaper, denied Russia was destabilising Ukraine and accused the
West of the "groundless whipping-up of tension".

He also warned authorities in Kiev against any use of force against
pro-Russian demonstrators.

Conclusions


Russia could not afford to lose Crimea and Sevastopol. I do not see
the Bear seeking to munch some more land. But it is a Game of
Hardball.

read more


It was Zbigniew Brzezinski who said Matters Crimea
Law & Politics


“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a
geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent
country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to
be a Eurasian empire.”

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The west has been needlessly whipping up tension – if we don't co-operate soon, chaos may take hold Sergei Lavrov
Law & Politics


The world of today is not a junior school where teachers assign
punishments at will. Belligerent statements such as those heard at the
Nato foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on 1 April do not match
demands for a de-escalation. De-escalation should begin with rhetoric.
It is time to stop the groundless whipping-up of tension, and to
return to serious common work.

read more


President Kagame and UN chief Ban Ki-moon lit the torch
Law & Politics


“All genocides begin with an ideology, a system of ideas that says
this group of people here are less than human and deserve to be
exterminated,” Kagame started in a long speech.

Speaking in an unusually high tone, Kagame gave their involvement in
genocide a more historical punch.

“The most devastating reality of the European control of Africa and
Rwanda was the transformation of social distortions into so called
races. We were classified and dissected and whatever differences
existed were magnified according to the framework formed elsewhere,”
Kagame told an attentive audience of over 30,000 people.

He said the colonialists who designed this caste system that
eventually engulfed Rwanda in 1994 had no scientific basis.

“There was no scientific basis to justify colonial claims to civilize
lesser people. We are not,” he added.

Turning to the West’s meddling in the affairs of African countries,
Kagame delivered a punch.

“We know you reconciliation in your countries like we do. We ask that
you engage Rwanda and Africa with an open mind, accepting that our
efforts are carried in good faith for the benefit of all of us,” he
started.

“But for those who think that for Rwanda and Africa to be governed
properly by its people requires by their endorsement, that is out. We
appreciate your contributions precisely because we do not feel you owe
us anything,” he added.

He said Rwanda was supposed to be a failed state, could have become a
permanent UN protectorate with little hope of ever becoming a
nationhood;

“But we didn’t end up like that. What prevented these scenarios with
the choices of the Rwandan people,” he said.

read more


The commemoration today marks 20 years since the downing of plane carrying the former president over Kanombe airport on April 7th, sparking off the genocide.
Law & Politics


President @PaulKagame #Mindspeak RICH TV @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H61U-5lbpks

U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is escorted by Chinese
military personnel as he arrives at Qingdao International Airport in
Qingdao, China, on April 7

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-07/in-first-u-dot-s-dot-defense-secretary-hagel-visits-chinese-aircraft-carrier

A U.S. Navy Poseidon P-8 takes off to assist in the search for
debris from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight #MH370 at Perth
International airport in Perth on April 7, 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/submarine-hunters-turn-plane-spotters-in-search-for-flight-370.html

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Seymour Hersh just published a potentially dynamite claim in the London Review of Books: It wasn't the Syrian government that bombarded a rebel-held district outside Damascus with chemical weapons last year, but the rebels themselves, supplied with sarin
Law & Politics


The Red Line and the Rat Line Seymour M. Hersh on Obama, Erdoğan and
the Syrian rebels @LRB

http://www.lrb.co.uk/2014/04/06/seymour-m-hersh/the-red-line-and-the-rat-line

The foreign policy expert told me that the account he heard originated
with Donilon. (It was later corroborated by a former US official, who
learned of it from a senior Turkish diplomat.) According to the
expert, Erdoğan had sought the meeting to demonstrate to Obama that
the red line had been crossed, and had brought Fidan along to state
the case. When Erdoğan tried to draw Fidan into the conversation, and
Fidan began speaking, Obama cut him off and said: ‘We know.’ Erdoğan
tried to bring Fidan in a second time, and Obama again cut him off and
said: ‘We know.’ At that point, an exasperated Erdoğan said, ‘But your
red line has been crossed!’ and, the expert told me, ‘Donilon said
Erdoğan “fxxking waved his finger at the president inside the White
House”.’ Obama then pointed at Fidan and said: ‘We know what you’re
doing with the radicals in Syria.’ (Donilon, who joined the Council on
Foreign Relations last July, didn’t respond to questions about this
story. The Turkish Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to questions about
the dinner. A spokesperson for the National Security Council confirmed
that the dinner took place and provided a photograph showing Obama,
Kerry, Donilon, Erdoğan, Fidan and Davutoglu sitting at a table.
‘Beyond that,’ she said, ‘I’m not going to read out the details of
their discussions.’

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“East Asia Pacific has served as the world’s main growth engine since the global financial crisis,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President.
International Trade


Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely
unchanged from 2013, the report says. As a result, East Asia remains
the fastest growing region in the world, despite a slowdown from the
average growth rate of 8.0 percent from 2009 to 2013. In China, growth
will ease slightly, to 7.6 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013.
Excluding China, the developing countries in the region will grow by
5.0 percent, slightly down from 5.2 percent last year.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3743  ECB executive board member Yves Mersch said deflation
risks aren’t imminent and Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny
signaled there is no immediate need for action
Dollar Index 80.20
Japan Yen 102.96 The yen reached 102.75 per dollar, the strongest since March 28
Swiss Franc 0.8879
Pound 1.6616
Aussie 0.9290  April 4, when it reached 93.08, the highest since Nov. 21.
India Rupee 60.31
South Korea Won 1052.91
Brazil Real 2.2192 The real climbed 0.8 percent to 2.2189 per dollar
today in Sao Paulo, the strongest closing level since Oct. 30.
Egypt Pound 6.9740
South Africa Rand 10.5136

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.20

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3743

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

GDT Price Index, Considered a Market Reference for Dairy Products,
Hits 13-Month Low WSJ Subscriber

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303847804579480443961571058?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303847804579480443961571058.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

International dairy prices have fallen to their lowest level in more
than a year, dragging down the stubbornly strong New Zealand dollar
with them.

"The price of 30% of New Zealand's merchandise exports have just
fallen 18.1% in two months," Doug Steel, an economist at BNZ Markets,
wrote in a recent note.

A strong dollar and lower dairy prices—Thursday's decline was the
fourth in a row at the biweekly GlobalDairyTrade auction—have been a
source of pressure not just on New Zealand's farmers but on the
country's broader and dairy-dependent economy.

The GDT Price Index, considered a market reference for dairy products,
dropped 8.9% to a 13-month low at Thursday's Internet-based auction,
where products offered include milk powder, butter and cheese, and
participants included New Zealand's Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
FCG.NZ 0.00%  , which makes about one-third of the world's dairy
products, and Denmark's Arla Foods.Analysts say the market is weighed
down by excess supply from New Zealand, with total product offered in
March up almost 90% from a year earlier. The sharpest price declines
have been for whole-milk powder, of which New Zealand is a huge
exporter—mostly to China, its biggest trading partner.

Demand from China, where food scares in the domestic dairy industry
have sapped consumer confidence in homemade products, isn't slowing.
February may be the shortest month, but milk-powder imports were the
second-highest on record, according to the California-based Milk
Producers Council.

But for four months dairy prices fell and the kiwi didn't. The
currency had been up 5.5% for the year before Thursday's auction. It
is down 1.3% since.

"It takes a bit of time for everyone to get on to a story," said Geoff
Kendrick, head of Asia currencies and rates at Morgan Stanley in Hong
Kong. The relationship between dairy prices and the currency, he said,
is "direct when it matters, when you get a few bad things in a row,
then [everyone realizes] it matters."

Andrew Robb, Australia's trade minister, said in an interview with The
Wall Street Journal last week that with the New Zealand dollar at
near-parity with the Australian dollar, its economy is starting to
fell "some of the exchange-rate pressures" that have squeezed
Australia.

While a stronger currency could "crowd out other nondairy exporters
and potentially even reduce New Zealand's dominance of the milk
market," Jane Foley of Rabobank said, investors aren't expecting a
material weakening of the currency.

New Zealand Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 0.86350

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_NZDUSD&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

NZ 1Q business sentiment held at the highest since June 1994

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 3 month INO 1300.832 [sell rallies in 2014]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Gold Least Preferred for Morgan Stanley as Decline to Resume

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/gold-is-least-preferred-metal-as-morgan-stanley-predicts-decline.html

The factors that boosted bullion in the first quarter, including
tensions in Ukraine, are set to weaken, analyst Joel Crane wrote in a
report today. While the 2014 forecast was raised 5 percent to $1,219
an ounce, average prices are still expected to drop for the next four
quarters, Crane said.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 100.97

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Copper May 2014 1 Year chart 3.0470

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_HG.K14.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Copper prices fell 9.3 percent this year, reaching the lowest level
since 2010 last month

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/copper-producers-keep-china-faith-as-rout-belies-demand.html

“I don’t expect prices to drop below current levels,” the former
Codelco CEO said. Antofagasta is controlled by Chile’s billionaire
Luksic family.

Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.8 percent to $6,675 a ton
($3.03 a pound) in London yesterday.

Conclusions


I am bearish Copper. I think China will slow further than Consensus Estimates.

Emerging Markets

read more


Frontier Markets Lure More Investors
Frontier Markets


Frontier markets funds included in Morningstar and Analytics’
databases have grown in size by 62% in the 12 months to February 2014.
Money invested in the nine largest dedicated frontier market funds on
the FE Analytics database of funds grew from £1.3 billion as at the
end of February 2013 to £2.1 billion at the same point in 2014.

The largest fund, Franklin Templeton’s Frontier Markets Fund grew by
£200 million from £1.1 billion to £1.3 billion in the 12 month period.
A spokeswoman for Franklin Templeton said that while the fund has been
closed to new investors since 28 June 2013, it has continued to take
money from existing investors, which can help explain the growth in
assets during the period.

Schroders’ ISF Frontier Markets fund has seen significant investment,
taking the fund from £45.3 million to £435.8 million over the period.
Alan Ayres, client portfolio manager at SchrodersSDR.LN -1.11%, said
interest in frontier markets following the financial crisis has been
“pretty subdued until very recently.”

A report from investment advisors RisCura released at the beginning of
April, found that pension funds are increasingly considering frontier
opportunities in Africa as a potential investment. It cited energy and
utilities as the sectors most likely to be favored by institutional
investors over the next three years.

read more


The African pandemic that keeps getting worse
Africa


It began early this year in the forested villages of southeast Guinea.
For months, the infected went undiagnosed. It wasn’t until March 23
that the news finally hit the World Health Organization. And by then,
Ebola had already claimed 29 lives, the organization reported in a
one-paragraph press release.
Since then, the organization has dispatched nine additional updates on
a ballooning pandemic that’s received modest notice in the West, but
has sent waves of panic across the African continent.
March 24: The outbreak is “rapidly evolving.” 59 dead. 86 confirmed cases.
March 27: The sickness spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. 66 dead.
103 confirmed cases.
March 30: “This is a rapidly changing situation,” WHO reported. 70
dead. 112 confirmed cases.
April 3: Ebola “has a case fatality rate of up to 90 percent,” the
organization said. 83 dead. 127 confirmed cases.
On Sunday, after the number of dead topped 90 and Mali and Ghana
recorded their first suspected cases of the disease, trouble began in
remote villages.

A mob attacked an Ebola treatment center in Guinea, accusing it of
infecting the town with disease, according to Reuters. In other
villages, people stopped shaking hands.
“We fully understand that the outbreak of Ebola is alarming for the
local population,” one doctor told the Independent. ”But it is
essential in the fight against the disease that patients remain in the
treatment center.”
What terrifies people so much about Ebola?
For starters, there’s no cure. Because it’s such a rare disease that
primarily affects poor African villages, big drug companies perhaps
haven’t seen enough economic opportunity to study the virus, Bloomberg
reports.
Then there’s the fact that Ebola deaths are particularly gruesome. The
disease comes from an infected animal – most likely the fruit bat,
which infects monkeys, apes, pigs and, finally, humans. The disease is
not airborne, but spreads through blood, secretions or other bodily
fluids. Its early symptoms include fever and intense weakness, WHO
says, then deepens with bouts of diarrhea, vomiting, and internal and
external bleeding.
The migratory pattern of the outbreak, which aid workers call
“unprecedented,” has baffled doctors. Outbreaks before this have
stayed in remote pockets of the country, but this iteration shot
hundreds of miles from southwest Guinea to the coastal capital of
Conakry.
Exacerbating the situation is the scarcity of medical professionals in
Guinea. According to the World Bank, there are only .1 physicians per
1,000 people — among the lowest ratios in the world, below even
Afghanistan.
This has fed animosity among some in Guinea toward the government for
its perceived inability to dispense medical services — or even enforce
quarantines.
“You have a lot of people who have recovered from civil war and are
living in war-ravaged areas with very poor infrastructures,” said
Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations. “As soon as word
goes out of quarantine, you have people start trying to escape and get
away from the clutches of authorities.”
This has already happened, some in Guinea claim.
“How can we trust them now?” Conakry resident Dede Diallo told
Reuters. She’s stopped working — and keeps her kids at home, where she
says it’s safe. “We have to look after ourselves.”

The latest Africa’s Pulse shows economic growth rising from 4.7% in
2013 to 5.2% in 2014 @WorldBank

http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/more-household-spending-plus-increased-investments-in-natural-resources-and-infrastructure-mean-higher-growth-for-africa

Natural resource exports are driving much of the growth

More spending at the household level due to increased remittances and
lower food and fuel prices is boosting growth figures

Despite emerging challenges, economic activity throughout the region
continues to expand: GDP growth is projected to reach 5.2% in 2014,
compared with 4.7% in 2013, and will rise to 5.5% in 2015, according
to the World Bank’s new Africa’s Pulse, the twice-yearly analysis of
the economic trends and latest data on the continent.

“Although Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports remain concentrated in a few
strategic commodities, the region’s countries have made substantial
progress in diversifying their trading partners,” says Francisco
Ferreira, Chief Economist for the World Bank’s Africa Region. “Over
the last decade, exports to emerging markets such as the BRICs—Brazil,
Russia, India, China—have grown robustly, primarily due to the
prolonged boom in commodities demand. The BRICs received only 9%of
Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports in 2000 but accounted for 34% of total
exports a decade later.”

Although the region continues to grow faster than many economies
around the world, growth in Africa is not inclusive when viewed in
terms of the population demographic. Resource-rich countries are
growing much faster at 7% (median rate) than the non-resource rich
countries at 1.6%.

Africa’s Pulse shows that the resources and services sectors are
Sub-Saharan Africa’s best performers: The share of the resources
sector rose from 9%in 1995-99 to 12.5%in 2007-11 while that of
services grew from 40% to 47%.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports grew at a robust pace, driven by the
region’s natural resources. During 1995-2012, the region’s total
exports increased from $68 billion to over $400 billion. Most of this
increase came from natural resources export. For example, petroleum,
minerals, and metal exports ballooned from $38 billion to $300 billion
during this period.

Oil-exporting countries rely heavily on a single commodity as their
revenue source. For example, Angola, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon
and Nigeria received, on average, more than 92% of their export
earnings from oil during 2010-13.

Although, the export revenue share from minerals and metals may not be
as high as that from oil, it is still high for some nonoil
resource-rich countries—Botswana, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra
Leone—with earnings more than 50%of their revenue from natural
resources.

The question that the region faces is, “Has Sub-Saharan Africa tapped
this potential?” The region’s service sector which totals $50 billion,
trails all other developing regions; however, it is expanding annually
at about 12%, on average. Traditional services such as retail trade,
hotels, restaurants, and public administration have recorded a decline
from 73% of total services in 2005 to less than 64%in 2012, while
modern services in the region have increased by over 10 percentage
points from just over 26%of total services to about 36% over the same
period.

In some countries such as Mauritius, Rwanda, and Tanzania, modern
services recorded compound annual growth rates of over 10%between 2005
and 2012, with Rwanda starting from a low base of less than $40
million in services exported in 2005 to over twice that amount at
almost $85 million by 2012. In both Mauritius and Rwanda, rapid
expansion in modern services is a result of increased activity in
tradable business and financial services. Over 60% of those employed
in large companies in Mauritius work in the service sector, which
offers more employment opportunities than either agriculture or
manufacturing. While these countries have experienced the fastest
increase in modern services, countries like Kenya are also emerging as
countries where modern services are becoming drivers of growth and
development.

“This,” says  Punam Chuhan-Pole, Lead Economist in the World Bank’s
Africa Region, and author of Africa’s Pulse, “is exciting news for
other African countries looking to expand into the globalized services
business.”

Africa's Pulse Full Report Volume 9 @WorldBank

http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Africa/Report/Africas-Pulse-brochure_Vol9.pdf

The economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa remains robust, but growth
is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital
flows
The frequency and strength of growth spurts have increased
Growth has shifted the structure of African economies in favor of the
resources and services sectors

Excluding South Africa, average output growth for the rest of the
region was 6.1 percent, second only to developing Southeast Asia and
Pacific at 7.2 percent and well above the global GDP growth rate at
2.4 percent.

Capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa continued to rise, reaching an
estimated 5.3 percent of regional GDP in 2013, significantly above the
developing-country average of 3.9 percent.

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the region grew 16
percent to $43 billion in 2013, boosted by new hydrocarbon discoveries
in many countries including Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania (figure
4). Higher FDI along with rising debt-creating flows helped lift
overall net capital flows to the region. While much of the FDI has
focused on the region’s burgeoning resource sector, some 30 percent of
it focused on the domestic market. Consumer- oriented FDI projects in
manufacturing and services expanded, including in telecommunication,
banking, and transport

Frontier markets (Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria,
Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia) have attracted much of the net
capital flows, particularly foreign direct investment, to the region
in recent years. In 2012, FDI inflows to these countries were $21
billion, nearly seven times the amount of short- and long- term debt
flows that these countries received (figure 5). Net portfolio equity
inflows to the region are largely concentrated in Nigeria and South
Africa. Nigeria has seen an increase in net portfolio equity inflows
from a mere $0.5 billion in 2009 to $10 billion in 2012.

Reflecting the fall in commodity prices and weak demand, export
receipts were depressed in the region, even though, on a volume basis,
exports increased in many countries. Meanwhile, imports rose strongly,
underpinned by a robust demand for capital goods, as governments
across the region ramped up investment projects in infrastructure and
construction. As
a result, the regional current account deficit widened from 1.6
percent of GDP in 2012 to an estimated 3.1 percent of GDP in 2013, but
there is considerable variation across countries.

Data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization show that
international tourist arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa grew by 5.2
percent in 2013, reaching a record 36 million, up from 34 million in
2012, contributing to government revenue, private incomes, and
employment. This increase was above the average world growth of 5
percent but less than the 6.2 percent growth achieved in the region in
2012. Demand was strong throughout the year, with a moderate slowdown
in the second quarter. Leading growth in 2013 were destinations in
Rwanda (up 13.8 percent), Zimbabwe (up 12.5 percent), the Seychelles
(up 10.8 percent), and Cabo Verde (up 5.3 percent). Madagascar and
Kenya, two leading destinations in the region, saw significant
declines in international tourist arrivals due to domestic events.

Fiscal deficits widened in 2013 and debt-to-GDP ratios rose across the
region. The largest deterioration of fiscal balances occurred among
oil exporters and low-income countries. In Cameroon and Chad, fiscal
deficits as a share of GDP more than doubled in 2013; and in Malawi,
the overall fiscal deficit widened to about 15 percent of GDP after
rising to 11.3 percent of GDP in 2012. Among middle-income countries,
Ghana’s fiscal deficit remained high at around 11 percent of GDP in
2013; in Zambia, the fiscal deficit widened sharply in 2013, and in
South Africa, the fiscal deficit is forecast to remain unchanged at
4.2 percent of GDP in 2013/14. Ambitious public investment programs
and large increases in public wages coupled with weak revenues
contributed to the deterioration of fiscal balances in many of these
countries.

Domestic risks associated with social and political unrest, and
emerging security problems, remain a major threat to the economic
prospects of some countries in the region.

Since February 2014, international food prices have risen sharply due
to drought in part of South America and tensions in Ukraine. Within
Sub-Saharan Africa, strong price pressures have emerged in several
countries driven in part by large currency depreciations, as in Ghana
and Zambia, and also by unfavorable weather conditions. In francophone
West Africa, drought in 2013 resulted in crop losses of up to 50
percent in parts of the Sahel region. Larger currency depreciations
and lower local harvests due to intensifying drought conditions could
result in higher inflation across the region than assumed in the
baseline. This would dampen household consumption which has been an
important driver of growth in the region.

The recent economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been
remarkable. Real GDP in the region grew 4.5 percent per year during
1995–2013, and the benefits from this surge were broad based, since
they were reaped not only by resource-rich countries but also by
non-resource-rich low-income countries. Economic activity grew 4.8
percent in the region in 2013, and it is projected to increase at an
average annual rate of about 5.4 percent during 2014–16

The analysis of the sectoral composition of Africa’s growth finds that
rapid growth has shifted the structure of African economies (i.e.,
sector shares in GDP): The relative size of agriculture in GDP has
shrunk, as has that of manufacturing, while the share of the resources
and services sectors has grown. Indeed, the region’s share of
manufacturing in GDP is less than half the average for developing
countries Page (2014). These trends are also reflected in the region’s
continuing reliance on primary commodity exports (see below). Clearly,
Sub-Saharan Africa’s pattern of structural change is divergent from
that of fast-growing East Asian countries, where structural change was
led by manufacturing, with the share of this sector in total output
rising at a fast pace (McMillan and Rodrik, 2011; Rodrik, 2013).

The French ambassador to Rwanda said on Monday he has been barred from
attending events marking the 20th anniversary of the genocide, amid a
major diplomatic row

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/world/story/french-ambassador-barred-rwanda-genocide-commemorations-20140407

"Yesterday night the Rwandan foreign ministry telephoned to inform me
that I was no longer accredited for the ceremonies," the French
ambassador, Michel Flesch, told AFP.

French Justice Minister Christiane Taubira pulled out of attending
Monday's events after Rwandan President Paul Kagame repeated his
accusation of French "participation" in the murder of 800,000 ethnic
Tutsis.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.76% 2014
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5143 [The Rand is at 2014 highs]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

The rand strengthened 0.6 percent to 10.4647 per dollar by 8:32 a.m.
in Johannesburg, its strongest level since Jan. 1 on an intraday
basis.

The currency advanced 1.6 percent over the past three trading sessions.

The rand slid 19 percent against the dollar in 2013, making it worst
performer among the major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

07-APR-2014 :: Snapshots from South Africa and Its role in Africa's Economy

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

The rand appears to have snapped a more than 12 month down trend

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9760

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt's foreign reserves rose to $17.414 billion in March from $17.307
billion in February, the central bank said on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/07/egypt-foreign-reserves-idUSC6E8JP0020140407

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +11.82% 2014 [has retreated 11.422% since 25th March]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,530.11 -5.99 -0.08%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.41%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

The implication of this complicated recalculation is that what we
thought was a $270bn economy is actually worth $510bn. It’s the
equivalent of suddenly discovering the existence of six Ghanas within
Nigeria.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/07/nigeria-south-africa-largest-economy

Which is why no one should be surprised when, weeks from now, a
Moro-type (Nigeria’s bureaucracy is laden with them) is quoted as
quipping, again predictably – and not tongue-in-cheek: “Nigerians
don’t have money? Let them spend the GDP!”

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.79% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Zambia Set to Pay More in Second Eurobond Sale as Kwacha Slides

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/zambia-set-to-pay-more-in-second-eurobond-sale-as-kwacha-slides.html

Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, is set to pay more to
sell its first dollar-denominated Eurobonds since 2012 after the
nation’s currency slid 9.6 percent this year.

The country may price the benchmark-sized bonds to yield between 8.75
percent and 8.875 percent, according to a person with knowledge of the
offering, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t
authorized to speak publicly. This compares with a coupon rate of
5.375 percent for the $750 million note sold in September 2012.

The landlocked nation said in October it may issue as much as $1
billion of Eurobonds, hiring Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and Barclays Plc
in January to lead the sale. Zambia, which has a B+ rating that puts
it four levels below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s, increased
its benchmark interest rate to a record 12 percent on March 28 from
10.25 percent to shore up the currency.

The kwacha gained 0.4 percent to 6.1322 per dollar by 11:19 a.m. in
Lusaka, paring its 2014 drop, the most among 24 African peers tracked
by Bloomberg after Ghana’s cedi. The yield on Zambia’s
dollar-denominated debt due September 2022 rose one basis point, or
0.01 percentage point, to 7.8 percent. It’s dropped 53 basis points
from this year’s high reached on March 20.

Conclusions


Zambia  revised yield guidance to a final 8.75% area (plus or minus
12.5bp) on a new US-dollar denominated 10-year Eurobond via
@Reutersinsider

SABMiller to Consolidate South African and African Regions Into One
WSJ Subscriber

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304640104579486753838934782?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304640104579486753838934782.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

LONDON—SABMiller PLC said Monday it plans to consolidate its South
African and African regions into one from July 1 for management
purposes, and this will be headed up by Mark Bowman, currently
managing director of SABMiller Africa.

"As we look to capitalize on our global scale and presence, we see
significant advantages in managing all of our African businesses as
one region," Group Chief Executive Officer Alan Clark said.

"We believe there is strong potential for profitable growth in both
beer and total beverages in Africa, and, by harnessing the skills of
our South African and African business in a combined Africa region, we
believe that we will be better placed to access growth prospects
across the entire continent," Mr. Clark added.

A British man shot dead while working for the UN in Somalia was a
former Scotland Yard detective who launched a new career tracking
illegal payments financing terrorism.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/10751485/Anti-piracy-Briton-murdered-in-Somalia.html

Simon Davis, of Hatfield, Hertfordshire, was hired by the United
Nations to meet with Somali businesses and government officials to
discuss ways to make sure al-Qaeda was not using money transfer
systems to fund attacks.

He and a French colleague were attacked soon after they landed on
Monday morning in Galkayo, the town in central Somalia closest to the
country’s pirate strongholds.

read more


UNHCR seeking access to detained asylum- seekers and refugees in Nairobi Press Releases, 7 April 2014
Kenyan Economy


UNHCR in Kenya is concerned at the wave of arrests that have taken
place during the week end in Nairobi, following recent terrorist
attacks in the capital. The police sweeps were concentrated at
Eastleigh neighbourhood where the majority of urban Somali refugees
and asylum-seekers live and where some of the attacks occurred.

UNHCR has been informed that those arrested are held at various police
stations as well as at the Kasarani Stadium.

In line with its mandate, UNHCR has sought access for itself and its
partners to the detained refugees and asylum-seekers. This access will
allow UNHCR to properly identify refugees, asylum-seekers and others
of concern. It will also allow the agency to provide assistance to the
detainees and obtain their release where appropriate.

UNHCR understands the security concerns of the Government of Kenya and
the steps taken to protect the people who live in the country
including asylum-seekers and refugees. UNHCR appeals to the law
enforcement agencies to uphold the rights of all those arrested and to
treat them in a humane and non-discriminatory manner.

Of the 550,980 refugees and asylum seeker in Kenya, 50,800 mostly
Somali live in Nairobi.

Conclusions


Asymmetric Risks remain potent and i have not seen so many Military
Vehicles bombing around the City at least since January 2008 to be
exact.

read more




The security operation was launched after explosions in a mainly Somali neighbourhood
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.603

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +4.49% 2014 [has corrected 1.517% off a
record High of 144.99 from 26th March]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg [6 week lows] +1.01% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,869.75 -39.00 -0.79%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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