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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 09th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Mindspeak with EAC SECGEN Dr. @rsezibera RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

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Thats Hannah in the Ball and she is 8 tomorrow and I wish her more love and Happiness than i can imagine
Africa


And truly I love my Hannah more than the World and everything in it.
That's a Fact. Occasionally, i get confused as to who is the Parent
and who is the Child.

“We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust.”
― Rumi

“Sit, be still, and listen,
because you're drunk
and we're at
the edge of the roof.”
― Rumi

read more



“Provocateurs have been sent there to create chaos,” Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington
Law & Politics


With Russian forces deployed on the border with Ukraine, the U.S. and
its allies are concerned that President Vladimir Putin may be planning
further incursions into eastern Ukraine after annexing the Black Sea
peninsula of Crimea.

An outright invasion of eastern Ukraine is unlikely in the run-up to
the May presidential election, said Chris Weafer, a partner at
Moscow-based Macro Advisory.

“Recent events look like a Cold War-type set-up filled with agents
provocateurs,” Weafer said by phone from London. “It seems like
Russia’s just needling Ukraine to see what they can get away with.”

Conclusions


Its a Game of Hardball and Putin has evidently calculated it serves
him better to take the fight to Ukraine and not have it taken to him.

The benchmark Micex share index rose 0.2 percent today, though it’s
slid 6.4 percent since Putin’s intervention in Crimea on March 1 [Its
a Buy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/u-s-ukraine-accuse-russia-as-protesters-seize-offices.html

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on Tuesday accusations by
Rwandan officials that France was complicit in the genocide that
killed 800,000 people were "disgraceful"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-france-rwanda-idUSBREA3717N20140408

"I cannot accept these disgraceful accusations that suggest France
could have been complicit in a genocide in Rwanda when its honour is
to always separate fighting factions," Valls said in a speech to
parliament presenting his new government's policies.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, French Foreign Ministry spokesman
Romain Nadal said: "There was a warm meeting between president
(Hollande) and Kagame in Brussels which is why we were extremely
surprised by these statements.

read more



REMEMBRANCE: Ugandan Yoweri Museveni, left, and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, follow the proceedings of the 20th anniversary commemoration of the genocide, in Kigali, Rwanda, on Monday
Law & Politics


U.S. defense chief gets earful as China visit exposes tensions Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-china-usa-idUSBREA370N020140408

Hagel was sharply questioned by Chinese officers at the National
Defense University. One of them told Hagel he was concerned that the
United States was stirring up trouble in the East and South China Sea
because it feared someday "China will be too big a challenge for the
United States to cope with."

"Therefore you are using such issues ... to make trouble to hamper
(China's) development," the officer said.

Hagel assured the audience that America had no interest in trying to
"contain China" and that it took no position in such disputes. But he
also cautioned repeatedly during the day that the United States would
stand by its allies.

"We have mutual self defense treaties with each of those two
countries," Hagel said, referring to Japan and the Philippines. "And
we are fully committed to those treaty obligations."

"As the PLA modernizes its capabilities and expands its presence in
Asia and beyond, American and Chinese forces will be drawn into closer
proximity - which increases the risk of an incident, an accident, or a
miscalculation," Hagel said in a speech at the National Defense
University.

"But this reality also presents new opportunities for cooperation."

The risks of a mishap were highlighted in December when the American
guided missile cruiser USS Cowpens had to take evasive action in the
South China Sea to avoid hitting a Chinese warship operating in
support of the Liaoning.

Chang asked the United States to "keep (Japan) within bounds and not
to be permissive and supportive", and railed against the government of
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who Hagel met in Tokyo last
weekend.

"It is Japan who is being provocative against China," Chang told a
news conference after talks with Hagel.

"If you come to the conclusion that China is going to resort to force
against Japan, that is wrong ... we will not take the initiative to
stir up troubles."

Chang called the Philippines a nation "disguising itself as a victim"
and renewed its opposition to Manila's pursuit of international
arbitration in its territorial dispute.

Hagel, who met the defense minister from the Philippines last week,
said he raised U.S. concerns in Beijing over the tension in the South
and East China Sea.

He cautioned that no countries should resort to "intimidation,
coercion, or aggression to advance their claims."

U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel (L) and Chinese Minister of
Defense Chang Wanquan

http://gdb.voanews.com/58E6AD84-57EE-4349-BDAB-D1E719540753_mw1024_n_s.jpg

The Snake @Aiww @Hirshhorn [best symbolises the ''infamous policy of
containment'']

http://www.twitpic.com/bdl6zk

It is crystal clear that the US owns a decisive Advantage at this
moment and that this Hard Power Leadership is set to erode over time.
Therefore, I think there is real Bite behind the Pivot because they
nature of Advantages is you need to press them. The Blinding Attack
envisaged under the Air/Sea Battle Concept fails to cross the
politically feasible threshold. The disproportionate response might be
feasible in a national security workshop but I am afraid it looks
plain untenable in the c21st. Far more probable is the idea of
''distant blockade operations'' ie the encirclement of China and then
effectively blockading the Country. Essentially, the US can be and
probably is China's Gatekeeper. Its a Chokehold. Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi

If you are considering ''distant blockade'' operations, one of those
areas you will be blockading is this part of the world, given the
amount of energy that is likely to be sold into Asia, in the future.
02-DEC-2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0212.pdf

One of the key elements of the Pivot to Asia is the air-sea battle
concept. This concept envisages the battle beginning with a "blinding
attack" against Chinese anti-access facilities and incorporates
"distant blockade" operations. China's dependence on foreign oil is
increasing just as the US' dependency is decreasing. And
interestingly, given my belief that the Eastern seaboard is a fabulous
energy prize, that puts the Indian Ocean in many respects right into
the geopolitical frame. If you are considering ''distant blockade''
operations, one of those areas you will be blockading is this part of
the world, given the amount of energy that is likely to be sold into
Asia, in the future.

Color Revolutions: Ukraine vs. Thailand. What is the End Game

http://www.globalresearch.ca/color-revolutions-ukraine-vs-thailand-what-is-the-end-game/5377076

Mogadishu Banadir regional administration, 1930s

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/feb/28/mogadishu-somalia-photography-city-exposures#/?picture=430817214&index=2

One of the aims of the project is also to challenge "familiar
mainstream images that depict the city solely as a place of conflict
and destruction."

The view towards government quarters in downtown Mogadishu

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/feb/28/mogadishu-somalia-photography-city-exposures#/?picture=430799605&index=7

read more


WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2014 @IMFNews #WEO
International Trade


Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven


Although we are far short of a full recovery, the normalization of
monetary policy—both conventional and unconventional—is now on the
agenda.

The normalization of monetary policy, however, implies tighter
financial conditions and a tougher financial environment. Investors
will be less forgiving, and macroeconomic weaknesses will become more
costly.

Acute risks have decreased, but risks have not disappeared.

Geopolitical risks have arisen, although they have not yet had global
macroeconomic repercussions.

Global activity has broadly strengthened and  is expected to improve
further in 2014–15, with much of the impetus coming from advanced
economies

prospects of improved returns in advanced economies, investor
sentiment is now less favorable toward emerging market risks.

Looking ahead, global growth is projected to strengthen from 3 percent
in 2013 to 3.6 percent in 2014 and 3.9 percent in 2015

Growth will be strongest in the United States at about 23⁄4 percent.
Growth is projected to be positive but varied in the euro area:
stronger in the core, but weaker in countries with high debt (both
private and public) and financial fragmentation, which will both weigh
on domestic demand. In emerging market and developing economies,
growth is projected to pick up gradually from 4.7 percent in 2013 to
about 5 percent in 2014 and 51⁄4 percent in 2015. Growth will be
helped by stronger external demand from advanced economies, but
tighter financial conditions will dampen domestic demand growth. In
China, growth is projected to remain at about 71⁄2 percent in 2014 as
the authorities seek to rein in credit and advance reforms while
ensuring a gradual transition to a more balanced and sustainable
growth path.

The global recovery is still fragile despite improved prospects, and
significant downside risks—both old and new—remain. Recently, some new
geopolitical risks have emerged.

Foreign direct investment has started to moderate with declining
commodity prices, and commodity-related budget revenues and foreign
exchange earnings are at risk.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3794
Dollar Index 79.80
Japan Yen 102.02
Swiss Franc 0.8837
Pound 1.6752  It reached $1.6823 on Feb. 17, the highest since November 2009.
Aussie 0.9369 Australia’s currency reached 93.87 U.S. cents, the
strongest since Nov. 20
India Rupee 60.035
South Korea Won 1042.47 The won climbed to the highest level since August 2008
Brazil Real 2.2016 The real gained for a third straight day, climbing
0.8 percent to 2.2016 per U.S. dollar today in Sao Paulo, the
strongest closing level since Oct. 30
Egypt Pound 6.9746
South Africa Rand 10.4367

The U.K. currency rallied 11 percent in the past 12 months, the best
performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar declined 0.3 percent and the
euro appreciated 6.5 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.80 [The Dollar got caned yesterday]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3794

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.02

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.6750

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


2-AUG-2013 :: So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net long sterling.
International Trade


So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net
long sterling.

I reckon There is an outside chance that UK property, which is
projected to rally 25 per cent over five years achieves that in 24 to
30 months.

I like looking for narratives that are embedded and entrenched and
where I can see an Inflexion Point.

The United Kingdom, Europe and the US have inflected. Watch closely
how the narrative starts changing.

read more


The U.K. economy will expand 2.9 percent in 2014 and 2.5 percent next year, the Washington-based IMF said in its World Economic Outlook published today.
International Trade


That compares with a January forecast of 2.4 percent and 2.2 percent,
respectively. Still, it warned the recovery remains uneven and said
the Bank of England should keep monetary policy accommodative.

The raised forecast means the IMF predicts the U.K. will expand the
most among the Group-of-Seven economies this year, outpacing the U.S.,
which will grow 2.8 percent.

“The U.K. economy has turned the corner,” Richard Franulovich, chief
currency strategist for the northern hemisphere at Westpac Banking
Corp. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “I’m sure there will
be doubters out there, but evidence we’ve got so far suggests growth
is well-entrenched and broad-based this time. It doesn’t look like
another false dawn.”

Sterling appreciated against most of its 16 major peers yesterday as
data showed factory output rose in February three times faster than
economists estimated in a Bloomberg survey

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/dollar-snaps-3-day-decline-before-fed-minutes-carry-trades-gain.html

BOE Governor Mark Carney said rates might begin to rise before the
general election in May 2015, according to an interview published on
April 3 with the Northern Echo newspaper.

read more


Samsung's New Galaxy Phone Is One Of The Best @BusinessInsider
International Trade


The Galaxy S5 has a 5.1-inch screen, which is much larger and more
striking than the 4-inch display on the iPhone 5S, and just a tad
bigger than the 5-inch screen on the S4. It's not just about size,
either. The screen has a lot of built-in tech like a sensor that can
adjust the display for better viewing in direct sunlight and another
one that can alter the colors based on the lighting in the room when
reading an e-book. None of this is noticeable unless you're looking
for it, but the screen always seems to be working to make sure you
have the best viewing experience. It's the best screen I've ever seen
on a phone.

The camera is spectacular, easily on par with the iPhone 5S camera and
the Nokia Lumia 1020 camera, two of the best on the market. The camera
shoots at 16 megapixels, but the real treat is something called live
HDR, which lets you get a preview of what your photo will look like in
HDR mode before you snap it. It results in some really nice photos,
especially if lighting conditions aren't very good.

That said, the Galaxy S5 is simpler, more refined and more enjoyable
to use than any Samsung device I've tested so far. Between the camera,
that brilliant 5.1-inch display, and the smoother software, the Galaxy
S5 is one of the best phones you can buy.

Conclusions


I am looking forward to being at the Samsung S5 Launch tomorrow at Safari Park.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1312.31 [The 2014 High is in in my view]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 102.28 [highest close since March 7th]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K14.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for May delivery lost as much as 41 cents to $102.15 a barrel in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at
$102.29 at 2:40 p.m. Seoul time. The contract climbed $2.12 to $102.56
yesterday, the highest close since March 7.

Emerging Markets

read more


China is now drilling holes in the “roof of the world” QUARTZ
Frontier Markets


Chinese oil and gas explorers have drilled a deep borehole in the
Tibetan Plateau, the world’s largest and highest plateau at about
4,500m above sea level, according to the South China Morning Post. The
project, whose location has been kept secret by officials, is part of
China’s hopes to exploit the region’s reputedly vast supplies of oil,
gas, and minerals.

The drilled borehole, the largest at such an altitude, is also a sign
of the difficulty reaching resources in the remote region, where harsh
geology, poor infrastructure, and thin air make it one of the most
difficult places in the world for drilling.

Chinese firms have been working for years to confirm estimates that
the plateau—which encompasses Tibet, Qinghai, and parts of Gansu,
Sichuan, and Yunnan provinces—could hold the world’s largest oil and
gas deposits—some 10 billion tonnes (11 billion tons). Officials say
up to 36 million tonnes of copper, lead and zinc, and billions of
tonnes of iron could be tapped here.

read more


Sub Saharan Africa P.68 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2014 @IMFNews #WEO
Africa


Growth in sub-Saharan Africa remains robust and is expected to
accelerate in 2014. Tight global financing conditions or a slowdown in
emerging market economies could generate some external headwinds,
especially for middle-income countries with large external linkages,
producers of natural resources, and frontier economies.1 However, some
of the most salient risks are domestic, stem- ming from policy
missteps in various countries, security threats, and domestic
political uncertainties ahead of elections.

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa remained strong in 2013 at 4.8 percent,
virtually unchanged from 2012, underpinned by improved agricultural
production and investment in natural resources and infrastructure.
Growth was robust throughout the region, especially in low-income and
fragile states.2 Outside these groups, in Nigeria growth remained
strong owing to relatively high oil prices, despite security problems
in the north and large-scale oil theft in the first half of 2013. In
contrast, growth in South Africa continued to deceler- ate,
constrained by tense industrial relations in the mining sector, tight
electricity supply, anemic private investment, and weak consumer and
investor confi- dence

Growth is projected to accelerate to about 51⁄2 per- cent in 2014,
reflecting positive domestic supply-side developments and the
strengthening global recovery:

Growth is also expected to accelerate in other countries, including
several fragile states, in the wake of an improved domestic political
and security situation (Mali), massive investments in infrastruc- ture
and mining (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Niger), and
maturing investments (Mozambique).

In several countries, the largest downside risks are domestic,
including policy uncertainty, deteriorating security conditions, and
industrial tensions. External risks are particularly important for
natural resource exporters, which could suffer from a slowdown in
emerging markets and a shifting pattern in China from investment- to
consumption-led growth.

Consideration should also be given to prefinancing rollovers when
reasonable conditions arise.

“Africa is the next big frontier in private equity and we are spending
an increasing amount of time investigating opportunities in that
region.” Warburg Pincus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/warburg-pincus-to-buy-dubai-company-stake-in-middle-east-foray.html

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.22% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

07-APR-2014 Snapshots from South Africa and Its role in Africa's Economy

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

The Jaguar simply purred. We stayed at the Fairway Hotel and Golf
Resort which transpired to be in the epicentre of the Afrikaner
heartland in Johannesburg. On Friday night, we found ourselves in a
happy hour with Africa’s white tribe. It was a curious experience and
a very tribal one.

South Africa is a big beast on the continent notwithstanding a
softness around recent growth.

Interestingly South Africa inc. is taking a much more forward position
across the continent.

The rand fell about 20 per cent in January 2013 through February 2014,
it has rebounded sharply in the last two weeks. I think the adjustment
lower in the rand is set to prove quite supportive for SA exports.

The rand appears to have snapped a more than 12 month down trend and
that is a constructive forward indicator.

Therefore, Nigeria rebasing or not, South Africa plays a heavyweight
role in Sub Saharan Africa and its economy has stabilised and
improving.

Jo'burg Sunset as seen looking across the Fairway at the Fairway Hotel
and Golf Resort

http://www.twitpic.com/e0aokl

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.43665 [heads to 10.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

The rand gained 0.6 percent to 10.4604 per dollar by 2:45 p.m. in
Johannesburg, its strongest level since Jan. 1 on an intraday basis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/rand-strengthens-against-dollar-erases-decline-for-2014.html

The currency of the continent’s biggest gold producer climbed after
foreign investors bought South African bonds for a third day
yesterday, the longest stretch in two weeks. All 16 major peers
tracked by Bloomberg, including the rand, strengthened against the
dollar. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate to 5.2
percent this year from 4.7 percent in 2013, the World Bank said
yesterday.

07-APR-2014 :: The rand appears to have snapped a more than 12 month down trend

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9746

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +14.41% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,704.50 +174.39 +2.32%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.76% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.63% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

The cedi has fallen 14.6 percent this year following a drop of around
20 percent in 2013 @Reuters_Summits

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-africa-summit-terkper-idUSBREA370NH20140408

read more


The open question is whether, Ghana is in the cockpit or whether the markets will simply elbow the Government aside 24-MAR-2014
Africa


Ghana’s Eurobond has a 9 per cent handle and sentiment has soured so
much, it is entirely feasible that Ghana might print a double digit
yield. Ghana is a near perfect harbinger of what can go wrong when you
front load your recurrent expenditure in the expectation that revenues
are a ris-
ing tide. The open question is whether, Ghana is in the cockpit or
whether the markets will simply elbow the Government aside.

read more


South Africa's Massmart to enter Angola with two stores @Reuters_Summits
Africa


Massmart (MSMJ.J), South Africa's No.4 retailer by market value, plans
to enter oil-rich Angola with two stores by 2015, a senior executive
said, as the unit of Wal-Mart (WMT.N) expands on a continent that is
still largely an informal retail market.

Speaking at the Reuters Africa Investment Summit in Johannesburg, Mark
Turner, Massmart's Africa director, said one store would open in the
first quarter of next year and the other in the third quarter.

"We've got two deals that are coming off the ground in Angola, which
is a country on the southern part of Africa that we're not represented
(in)," Turner told the summit.

Turner also said the company - 51 percent owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc
- was building its first store in Kenya after failing to clinch
unspecified acquisitions that would have given it a substantial
footprint in east Africa's biggest economy.

"Going into Africa is not cookie cutter, if it was more cookie cutter
we could roll out a lot quicker, but it's not," Turner said. "It's
really getting into those markets and understanding them."

Massmart's rival Woolworths (WHLJ.J) pulled the plug on its Nigerian
business late last year, citing poor supply chain infrastructure, high
rents and duties and the difficulty of marketing to consumers.

Turner said it could take at least two months for imported goods to
reach shelves in many east African countries, highlighting ports
congestion, compared with up to eight days in southern African
countries.

Wal-Mart could lead corporate America into Africa SEP 2010 @csmonitor

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2010/0928/Wal-Mart-could-lead-corporate-America-into-Africa

Retailers chase reward in booming but volatile Africa

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-africa-summit-retail-idINBREA371MP20140408

Opening a modern supermarket in a city under threat from an Islamist
insurgency, with the added uncertainty of wobbly public power
supplies, may sound like a retailer's nightmare.

But what if that city stands on one of the oldest trade crossroads in
Africa, offering a major chunk of one of the largest and
fastest-growing retail markets on the continent?

Small wonder then that major retail investors like South African
grocer Shoprite (SHPJ.J) and Wal-Mart (WMT.N) unit Massmart Holdings
(MSMJ.J) are opening stores in Nigeria's second city of Kano, the
northern commercial hub of Africa's No. 1 oil producer and, since
Sunday, its largest economy.

"I always want to be bold enough to say, you can't be in Nigeria
without being in Kano," Massmart Holdings' Africa Director Mark Turner
told Reuters in Johannesburg at the Reuters Africa Summit this week.
Nigeria, along with Angola and Kenya, is a strategic target market for
the Wal-Mart subsidiary.

"Trading in Africa is not easy, it comes with challenges, whether it
be power, whether it be infrastructure. But it's really about how you
gear up to keep trading as consistently as you can through all these
challenges," said Massmart's Turner.

"But the risk reward is there," added Turner, whose company operates
in 12 African states.

"Africa is brimming with potential for global retailers," consultancy
A.T. Kearney said in its first African Retail Development Index report
issued last month, which ranked African states in terms of their
attractiveness for retail investors.

It placed Nigeria, Africa's most populous country with 170 million
people, second on its list, citing its rapid urbanization, youthful
population and rising middle class. But it ranked tiny Rwanda with its
11.5 million people, first, for its economic reforms and
business-friendly agenda.

Insurer Sanlam plans 3-4 African acquisitions this year @Reuters_Summits

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/us-africa-summit-sanlam-idUSBREA370LW20140408

South Africa's largest insurer Sanlam (SLMJ.J) plans to conclude three
or four acquisitions in other African countries this year as it chases
faster-growing markets, a senior official said.

Sanlam, which already has businesses in 10 English-speaking countries
on the continent, is turning its focus to neighboring
Portuguese-speaking nations and further afield to north Africa, its
head of business outside South Africa said.

"I would hope to have one wrapped up either in Mozambique or in
Angola. I would hope for one or two in east Africa," Sanlam's Margaret
Dawes told the Reuters Africa Summit. "Three or four I would hope."

Chief Executive Johan van Zyl said last month Sanlam had a $374
million kitty to spend on purchases in Africa and Asia. The company is
moving into other countries to hedge against a maturing South African
home market.

Sanlam is separately hoping to conclude a transaction to buy
Malawi-owned Nico's NICO.MV general insurance operations in four
African countries by next month. The bulk of that deal has been
completed, with only Tanzanian regulatory approval still pending,
Dawes said.

The insurer, South Africa's No.1 by market value, is also looking to
increase its controlling stake in Kenya's Pan Africa Insurance
(PAFR.NR).

Sanlam's key southern African markets are South Africa, Botswana and
Namibia. Dawes said Sanlam's target was for its African operations
outside southern Africa to contribute 20 percent of profit in five
years' time, from 9 percent in 2013.

The uptake of insurance in most African countries has been sluggish,
with less than 1 percent of the continent's population having life
cover. Many people on the continent distrust insurance or see no need
for cover, choosing instead to rely on their families.

It is also taboo to discuss death in many African cultures, which
makes funeral policies a hard sell in countries such as Uganda and
Tanzania, where savings products fare better.

They are, however, popular in countries such as Ghana and South
Africa, where elaborate funerals are a sign of respect.

Across the continent, insurance companies are innovating to tap into
the growing African market with products such as micro-insurance,
where people buy cover in small daily premiums payable on mobile
phones.

East Africa Property Summit Presentations

http://www.eapisummit.com/Newsletter/2014/Presentations/PRESENTATIONS.html

read more



West Africa's Ebola outbreak is among the "most challenging" ever to strike since the disease emerged four decades ago, the WHO said Tuesday, as the suspected death toll from the virus hit 111.
Africa


Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general of the World Health
Organization (WHO), said the agency was concerned about the spread of
the outbreak from its hub in the forests of southern Guinea.

"We have not had an Ebola outbreak in this part of Africa before,"
said Fukuda, whose agency has rushed scores of aid workers to the
region to contain the epidemic.

"This is one of the most challenging Ebola outbreaks we have ever
faced," he said.

The virus can be transmitted to humans from wild animals, and between
humans through direct contact with another's blood, faeces or sweat.

Sexual contact, or the unprotected handling of contaminated corpses,
can also lead to infection.

read more


Investors in corrupt ‘new Africa’ repeat old errors FT Subscriber
Africa


Either memories are short or our ethical compass is faulty. Or do we
simply no longer give a damn? When Barclays refused to end its ties
with apartheid South Africa, protesting students in Britain took their
business elsewhere. In 1986 the bank changed its mind and its policy.
Three decades later Nigeria, despite being notorious for corruption,
had no difficulty raising $1bn by issuing sovereign debt. The bond was
oversubscribed.

Of course, there is no moral equivalence between the evil of apartheid
and the consequences of endemic graft in Nigeria and elsewhere in
Africa. Apartheid ruined the lives of generations and its poison
spread beyond South Africa. But corruption also ruins lives. Across
Africa billions of dollars have been misspent and diverted into
overseas bank accounts. Clinics have been left without medicines,
schools without books, villages lack electricity, roads are potholed.
Be it apartheid or corruption, potential is squandered and hopes are
dashed.

So when investors buy bonds sold by sleaze-ridden governments, it is
surely as dubious as giving a bottle of whisky to a known alcoholic.
It is not against the law. But at best it is unethical and immoral,
and the giver is complicit in the consequences.

What makes the act especially questionable is that it has happened
before. Investors helped make Africa a debt junkie in a process that
began 50 years ago. It is easy to forget that independence from
colonial rule was accompanied by an optimism and a wave of lending
reminiscent of the current enthusiasm about the so-called new Africa.
Clinics have been left without medicines, schools without books –
potential is squandered and hopes are dashed

Africa’s leaders proved deeply disappointing. Foreign lenders
nevertheless indulged big men and their vanity projects. Grandiose
power schemes, dams that silted up and irrigation projects that failed
– few if any were viable or profitable. All were dependent on foreign
loans.

The bubble had to burst. By the early 1970s the continent was unable
to service its external debt. Arrears mounted, defaults became common.
As the crisis deepened the search for a solution became desperate.
Africa’s finance ministers spent much of their time pleading for
restructuring at meetings convened by creditors. By the 1990s, Africa
was in effect bankrupt. Even then, western governments continued to
indulge some of the most extravagant borrowers, such as President
Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, whom they saw as allies in a cold war in
which Africa was a theatre of conflict.

But it became clear that the debt burden was unsustainable. By the
turn of the millennium, the case for writing off the debt of some of
the poorest states was overwhelming. Nigeria, one of the
beneficiaries, decided to borrow afresh, and became one of the first
African countries to issue a sovereign bond, followed by a score of
other states.
Foreign investors have piled in, pursuing profit but avoiding
responsibility. They do not demand transparency in the award of
contracts to the projects they fund, nor do they monitor
implementation. “We are competing with China” is an oft-heard excuse
from the investors – suggesting an approach that excludes ethics but
fails to explain their conduct when they had the continent to
themselves. “Anyway,” they add, “why should Africa be singled out? Why
subject it to scrutiny not applied to other corrupt borrowers?” The
answer is that sub-Saharan Africa has long been treated as a special
case. Closer checks are a small price for a debt write-off worth
$190bn.

Can Kenya, for example, which is planning a $2bn bond issue, be
trusted? Two massive scams that cost the country billions, based on
bogus export claims and false invoices, have gone unpunished.
Questions are being asked about construction of a $2bn Kenyan railway,
with contracts that lack transparency. Will Nigeria’s bond be spent
wholly on rebuilding the decrepit power system as promised? Or will a
slice go the way of the $20bn the state-owned petroleum company cannot
account for?

We have been here before but no lessons have been learnt. Two things
are certain: the bond buyers will make their money on their loans,
irrespective of how they are spent, the continent’s elite will take
their cut – and Africa’s long-suffering people will pay the price.

read more


South Africa’s Woolworths Holdings Ltd. (WHL) agreed to buy Australian retailer David Jones Ltd. (DJS) for A$2.15 billion ($2 billion)
Africa


Buying the 38-outlet Australian chain increases Woolworths’ presence
in a country Credit Suisse Group AG says is the world’s
second-wealthiest.

“Those chains are in a global arms race to open new stores now,”
Caroline Finch, a senior analyst at Ibisworld Inc. in Melbourne, said
by phone. Local retailers in Australia and South Africa have to work
harder, she said, because “the H&Ms and Zaras of this world have been
nipping at their heels, taking the attention of a very fashion-focused
consumer.”

Woolworths Holdings, South Africa’s largest retailer by market value,
isn’t related to the Australian supermarket chain Woolworths Ltd.

“We’re buying this business to build a bigger southern hemisphere
brand,” Ian Moir, Woolworths chief executive officer, told reporters
in Sydney today. “We’ve got real scale in the southern hemisphere,
we’ve got the same seasonality, so we’ve got a real competitive
advantage over northern hemisphere entrants.”

read more



@UKenyatta With Sudan President Omar al-Bashir on arrival at Khartoum International Airport while on my way to Turkey frm Rwanda
Kenyan Economy


A Kenyan official says at least 3,000 people have been arrested during
four days of security operations following a wave of terror attacks.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/kenya-3000-arrested-after-terror-attacks/2014/04/08/db6db8ac-bf2a-11e3-9ee7-02c1e10a03f0_story.html

Police spokesman Masoud Mwinyi said Tuesday that most of those
arrested were scrutinized by security agencies and released, but that
447 are being held in custody under anti-terrorism laws that allow
police to hold suspects longer than 24 hours.

A Kenyan mining milestone @theafricareport

http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/a-kenyan-mining-milestone.html

Australia's Base Titanium is in tense royalty talks with the Kenyan
government for its first shipment of ilmenite.

Joe Schwarz, the general manager for Base Titanium in Kenya, does not
like to be called a foreigner. He was born and raised in Kenya.
Schwarz speaks Swahili and has spent more than 30 years in mining
operations across the African continent. This is probably why he is
the most visible member of Base Titanium's management team, as he has
to deal with everyone from the local community to top government
policymakers in addition to the daily considerations of running a
business.

In mid-February, it was all smiles for Schwarz and Kenya's mining
minister Najib Balala as Base shipped the first consignment for
export: 25,000tn of ilmenite worth $4.5m and destined for China.

The company expects to export 330,000tn per year.

In the weeks building up to the big day, reports indicated that the
company was yet to receive a minerals export licence from the
ministry, clouding prospects of shipping out the ilmenite as
scheduled.

"We hope to get the permit anytime," Schwarz told the media the day
before the shipment. "The minute we get it, the loading begins."

At play is the government's ongoing effort to revise royalties.

The company says it should be held to the agreement it signed five
years ago when it was licensed to operate in Kenya.

Behind closed doors, managers have been in one meeting after the other
with government officials.

The matter seems yet to be settled.

"Calculation of royalties will only be done after shipments have been
dispatched from Kenya," Balala said.

"So, those other details of calculations will come in due course."

According to Kenya's newspaper The Star, the minister has been pushing
for Base to increase its royalty payments from 5% to 10% and to give
up a 10% equity stake to the government.

Even as he scaled this one hurdle, Schwarz could expect little rest.

The county government of Kwale, where Base Titanium runs its mine, has
been claiming that it was not properly consulted before the shipment
was made.

Governor of Kwale Salim Mvurya says residents of the Coast Province
county have to benefit from the mineral wealth and will need to be
included in any discussions on proceeds of mineral exports. This is
ominous.

Last year, Ireland's Tullow Oil had to stop its operations in northern
Kenya as residents stormed its drilling sites demanding jobs and
supply contracts.

Monica Gichuhi, chief executive of the Kenya Chamber of Mines, says
Base is an important test case for Kenya: "Base is a significant
player and globally investors have been watching the Kwale mining
project to see how it goes.

It is an indication to other mining companies that the country is ready."

For Base Titanium, it should all be worth the effort.

Mining consultants at Kipya say the mine at Kwale will break even in
three to four years and has a production period of about 12 years.

For the first seven, the company expects to export 330,000tn of
ilmenite, 79,000tn of higher grade rutile and another 30,000 of zircon

@Tunajibu Joe Schwarz Colin getting ready to load the ilmenite Base
Titanium #Kwale

http://www.twitpic.com/dvd7iy

Baobab Tree Special Mining Lease Base Titanium #Kwale

http://www.twitpic.com/dqnml1

HISTORY, KENYA HISTORY APRIL 8, 2014 THE BIRTH OF A CITY – A PHOTO
ESSAY ON THE HISTORY OF NAIROBI

http://www.theeagora.com/birth-city-photo-essay-history-nairobi/

The View of Nairobi from the 8th Floor 77 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/dszibs

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.604

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +4.55% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

142.87 +0.08 +0.06%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.906% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,882.33 +12.58 +0.26%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


''Growth in sub-Saharan Africa remained strong in 2013 at 4.8 percent,
virtually unchanged from 2012 and Growth is projected to accelerate to
about 5 1⁄2 per- cent in 2014'' said the IMF in its World Economic
Update yesterday.

''In several countries, the largest downside risks are domestic,
including policy uncertainty, deteriorating security conditions, and
industrial tensions''

The Securities Exchange has been grappling with Security concerns and
that brought some softness recently.

The rally in emerging-market currencies continued Wednesday,
propelling the South Korean won to its strongest level in more than
five years against the dollar.

Via @Reuters_Summits We learned that ''MassMart  - 51 percent owned by
Wal-Mart Stores Inc, was building its first store in Kenya after
failing to clinch unspecified acquisitions that would have given it a
substantial footprint in east Africa's biggest economy''

The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.566% to close at 143.68 as Investors
looked to buy the Big Caps after what has been a recent soft patch.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 10.37 points to close at 4892.70.
Equity Turnover was 527.008m with buyers outstripping Sellers.
The Market had a better Tone today.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi rallied 6.19% to close at 120.00 and is +26.315% in 2014.
Earnings have been crimped across the Sector but Investors are now
focussed on the fact that this Sector trades at steep discounts to Net
Asset Values. Furthermore, post the Bidding War for Rea Vipingo,
Investors increasingly appreciate that these Net Asset Value Discounts
and essentially Price Disequilibriums have a very good chance of
moving back into Equilibrium. That is why the Agricultural Sector has
rallied in a broad based manner in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.81% to close at 12.45 and traded 4.050m shares
worth 50.439m and was trading at 12.50 +1.21% at the Finish. Safaricom
is +14.74% in 2014 and is all set to blast through its record closing
High of 12.55 set earlier in the year. I have a minimum Price
Objective of 13.50 in very short order.

Kenya Airways ticked 0.3875% higher to close at 12.95. The Arrival of
the Dreamliner and a series of them in 2014 marks an inflexion Point
for the Brand, the experience and the business.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange and firmed 0.54% to close at 46.25 and traded
2.067m shares worth 95.631m. Kenya Commercial Bank is -2.11% on 2014
and has found deep buy Side Support at the 46.00 Level.
Diamond Trust was high ticked 7.46% to close at 245.00 and traded 200
shares. Shares were being offered at 235.00 4.08% below the closing
Price, however, into the Finish Line. Diamond Trust Bank is +27.6% in
2014, trades on an 11.33 PE Ratio and accelerated FY Earnings Per
Share +23.91%. The Rights Issue is bite-sized and will be
oversubscribed.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 20.00 and traded 2.422m shares worth
48.453m. COOP Bank is +12.676% in 2014.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 16.30 and traded 2.254m shares.
Barclays Bank is +3.49% in 2014 and I, for one, think Investors have
yet to properly price in the network Effect of a more focussed
Barclays Africa Business.
CFC Stanbic improved 1.869% to close at 109.00 and traded 4,200
shares. CFC Stanbic is +25.28% in 2014 and has further to go.
Standard Chartered ran 1.269% higher to close at 319.00 with 20,500
shares traded. I expect further Upside traction and a Share split in
2014.

South Africa's No.1 Insurance company SANLAM by market value announced
its looking to increase its controlling stake in Kenya's Pan Africa
Insurance via Reuters Summits. Pan Africa Insurance rallied 3.305% to
close at 125.00 and is +40.44% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed +1.15% to close at 262.00 and was trading at 265.00 +2.32%
session highs at the closing Bell. EABL traded 158,400 shares and
heads back to 290.00 and unchanged for the Year.

Total Kenya rallied a further 3.09% to close at 25.00 and was trading
session highs of 25.50 +5.15% at the closing Bell. Total Kenya traded
15,600 shares. Total Kenya reported a sharp Turnaround in its FY 2013
Earnings Release where FY Profit After Tax swung from a FY Loss of
[202.142m] in 2012 into a profit of 1.312277b for FY 2013. Total hiked
the Full Year Dividend Pay out 200% and that was a significant and
incontestable statement. Total Kenya is unchanged in 2014 and has
further headroom.
KenolKobil rallied 2.475% to close at 10.35 ahead of its will FY2013
Earnings Release expected as early as tomorrow. KenolKobil traded
903,000 shares and was trading at 10.50 +3.96% at the Finale.

The Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) is on April 22 expected to
publish the results of a survey on Lafarge’s competitive position in
Kenya’s cement market. Lafarge owns 66.2% of Bamburi Cement and 37.5%
of E.A. Portland Cement, two of the largest cement companies in Kenya
by market share. Lafarge’s interest in the two companies has been
questioned by some stakeholders in the cement industry as being
against competition laws, hence implementation of the survey by the
CAK.

Athi River Mining [where Lafarge once held a stake but does not
anymore] traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 0.588% to close at 84.50
with 1.063m shares worth 90.312m traded. ARM recently released its FY
2013 Earnings where FY Turnover expanded +24% and FY Profit before Tax
+12%. ARM sees material margin expansion once its Tanga Clinker plant
becomes operational in H2 2014.
Bamburi Cement bucked the positive Trend and retreated 4.52% to close
at 190.00 and traded 78,900 shares. Bamburi Cement is -9.523% in 2014.
East African Portland Cement did not trade but is +32.608% in 2014.

Carbacid closed 4.511% higher at 34.75 and traded 46,000 shares.

Sameer was the biggest Loser at the Exchange today and retreated
8.571% to close at 6.40 on 149,700 shares traded.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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