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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 03rd of February 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank Mr. and Mrs. Bhaloo for a lovely celebration on Saturday at
the Capital Club.

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Bathers in wave pool, Orlando, Florida, US, 1999
Africa


Big Thank You to M.G.VASSANJI for the interview @NorfolkFairmont the
Magic of Saida
http://www.twitpic.com/dtjowi

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“No, we have stayed where we are. Actually we are not advancing ourselves, we just stopped the rebels from advancing southwards, but it’s the government that has been fighting,” he said
Law & Politics


South Sudanese rebels accused government forces on Sunday of razing
the hometown of their leader Riek Machar, violating a ceasefire, and
said the army was drawing support from foreign fighters now in the
country.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/02/us-southsudan-unrest-idUSBREA110GM20140202

Rebel spokesman Lul Ruai Koang said government SPLA forces and
fighters from the Sudanese Justice and Equality Movement - a rebel
group from north of the border - had destroyed the northern town of
Leer on Saturday, massacring women and children as they fled.

"(President Salva) Kiir's forces burned down the whole of Leer town
and entire surrounding villages," Koang said in a statement.

"The latest destruction of Leer town in Unity state has no strategic,
operational or tactical importance, but mere need for psychological
satisfaction.

A general view shows the opening ceremony of the 22nd Ordinary
Session of the African Union summit in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa,
Jan. 30, 2014.

http://www.voanews.com/content/uganda-says-troops-will-stay-in-south-sudan/1841616.html

I read Robert Kaplan's Monsoon over the WeekEnd. And its really very good.

Robert Kaplan Monsoon

http://www.penguin.com.au/covers/catalog/9781863955027.jpg

"the Greater Indian Ocean, stretching eastward from the Horn of Africa
past the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian plateau and the Indian
Subcontinent, all the way to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond,
may comprise a map as iconic to the new century as Europe was to the
last one."

Mr. Kaplan writes "40% of seaborne crude oil passes through the
Straits of Hormuz at one end of the Indian Ocean and 50% of the
world's merchant fleet capacity passes through the Strait of Malacca
at the other end." He adds, "The combined appetites of China, Japan
and South Korea for Persian Gulf oil already make the Strait of
Malacca home to half of the world oil flows and close to a quarter of
global trade."

This creates a "Malacca dilemma" for China, as President Hu Jin Tao
has termed it. This is why China has embarked on its so-called
string-of-pearls strategy. China is constructing a large port and a
listening post at Gwador near the entrance of the Straits of Hormuz.
Other media sources report that China plans a railway line from Gwador
across today's Pakistan to Gilgit in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir and
from there to Kashgar in Xinjiang province. Mr. Kaplan describes
China's build up of a oil port in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, a container
port facility in Chittagong in Bangladesh where China could see naval
access. Mr. Kaplan writes that China is "building and upgrading
commercial and naval bases; constructing road, waterway and pipeline
links from the Bay of Bengal to China's Yunnan Province." This is
crucial to China because "such Indian Ocean ports with north-south
road and rail links would help economically liberate landlocked inner
China."

''Whoever is Lord of Malacca has his hands on the throat of Venice''

Indian Ocean accounts for 1/2 of all the World's Container Traffic.

The Indian Ocean Rimland from the Middle East to the Pacific accounts
for 70% of the Traffic of Petroleum products for the Entire World.

China whose demand for Crude Oil doubled between 1995 and 2005 and
will double again in the coming decade or two, as it imports 7.3m
barrels of crude daily by 2020.

More than 85% of that China bound Oil will pass across the Span of the
indian ocean through the Strait of Malacca.

China Oil consumption is growing 7x faster than the US.

US Marine Corps ''Vision and Strategy'' Statement unveiled in June
2008 covering the Years to 2025 concludes that Indian Ocean and
adjacent waters will be a central theatre of conflict and competition.

 The US may not control events inside the ''big sandbox'' of the
Middle East , but as Ralph Peters suggests it will compensate by
trying to dominate the doors in and out of the Sandbox. The Straits of
Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb.

In other words, the Indian Ocean will be where global power dynamics
will be revealed. Together with the contiguous Near East and Central
Asia it constitutes the new Great Game in geopolitics.

A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.August 19th 2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1908.pdf

Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st.  Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean becomes kind
of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

If You ever fancy a Trip into another Century go to Wasini Island
with the captain 766 Days Ago

http://www.twitpic.com/803alh

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Fort Jesus Mombasa 1130 Days Ago
Law & Politics


Three Chinese coastguard vessels spent more than two hours in the
12-nautical-mile territorial waters off one of the Senkakus, which
China claims and calls the Diaoyus, Japan's coastguard said.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/china-raises-tension-by-sending-ships-through-disputed-waters/story-e6frg6so-1226816205165

China's State Oceanic Administration said three of its coastguard
ships were patrolling "territorial waters surrounding the Diaoyus
islands" yesterday, according to official state news agency Xinhua.

The Snake @Aiww 443 days

http://www.twitpic.com/bdl6zk

He railed against the "information war that the West has waged against Russia."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/putin-using-olympics-in-sochi-to-reward-friends-and-punish-enemies-a-945907.html

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3486 The euro traded at $1.3487 as of 2:38 p.m. in Tokyo from
$1.3486 in New York on Jan. 31, when it touched $1.3479, the weakest
since Nov. 22
Dollar Index 81.30
Japan Yen 102.32
Swiss Franc 0.9071
Pound 1.6428
Aussie 0.8752 “I’m sure as much as one can be that the RBA will not be
reducing rates,” said Hans Kunnen, a senior economist at St. George
Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “I think the text will confirm the current cycle
of easing is over and that could be a positive for the Aussie.”
India Rupee 62.595
South Korea Won 1082.54
Brazil Real 2.4126
Egypt Pound 6.9949
South Africa Rand 11.1538

The euro has dropped 0.2 percent this year, according to Bloomberg
Correlation Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed market
currencies. The dollar has climbed 1.9 percent while the yen is up 5.2
percent, the biggest gainer in the index.

The MSCI All-Country World Index (SPX) tumbled 4.1 percent in January
and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 3.6 percent. Benchmark U.S.
10-year Treasury notes rose, pushing yields down 38 basis points, or
0.38 percentage point, to 2.64 percent, the lowest closing level since
Nov. 7.

Emerging-market currencies continued a slump initially spurred by
anti-government protests from Ukraine to Thailand and deepened by the
Jan. 23 devaluation of Argentina’s peso, which dented confidence
throughout Latin America. The peso fell 13 percent that day and 19
percent for the month.

A custom Bloomberg index with equal weightings of the dollar’s 20
most-traded emerging-market peers has declined in 14 of the past 15
days and slipped 3 percent last month.

The Turkish lira rose this week versus all of its 174 global peers
except the Malawian kwacha, gaining 3.6 percent against the greenback,
after its central bank more than doubled interest rates. Still, it
plummeted 4.8 percent on the month.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.30

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3486

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro-area consumer prices climbed an annual 0.7 percent last month
after a 0.8 percent advance in December, the European Union’s
statistics office said last week. That’s the fourth consecutive
reading of less than 1 percent while the ECB aims to keep inflation at
just under 2 percent.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.32

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Nikkei 225 slid 2 percent today to 14,619.13. The measure has
fallen 10 percent from a six-year high reached on Dec. 30.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-03/topix-heads-for-11-week-low-on-china-slowdown-concern.html

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1245.355

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 97.28 [Overcooked to the Upside]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.H14.E&v=d1&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for March delivery declined as much as 71 cents to $96.78 a barrel
in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at
$97.15 at 2:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract slid 74 cents to
$97.49 on Jan. 31. The volume of all futures traded was about 9
percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 1.3 percent in
2014.

read more




Exclusive: General says more Marines could be based throughout Africa
Africa


Marine units that specialize in crisis response could be based in
Africa in coming years as military leaders work with host nations that
have shown interest in the U.S. posturing troops in their countries,
according to a top general in the region.

Lt. Gen. Steven Hummer, deputy to the commander for military
operations in U.S. Africa Command, said these units would likely be
similar to the Special-Purpose Marine-Air Ground Task Force Crisis
Response based at Morón Air Base in Spain, which stood up in 2013.

“There’s quite a reach from Morón to get to [certain African
countries], depending on the operational aircraft,” Hummer told Marine
Corps Times. “As we look at the future of the environment around the
world, and the fiscal challenges impeding the number of ships we would
like to have, there’s a balancing act we have to achieve between
MAGTFs aboard ships and MAGTFs ashore, where they can respond to
indications and warnings.”

The units likely would be a hybrid between the crisis response force
and a second Marine unit that operates in the region — SPMAGTF Africa,
which is based at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy. Those Marines
conduct training with local militaries that are dealing with terrorism
or other threats to security.

“A crisis response force, that could be their primary mission,” Hummer
said. “But they could also be doing theater security cooperation
training with militaries on the continent. They could participate in
exercises, all the while — as we craft these — continuing to develop
their skills and readiness toward crisis response.”

The Spain-based crisis response force is built around about 550
Marines, at least four MV-22B Osprey helicopters and two KC-130J
refeulers. The combatant commander can call on it to respond to
humanitarian disasters or security emergencies at embassies, or take
on other missions. The usefulness of the task force was on display in
early January when the Marines helped evacuate personnel from the U.S.
Embassy in Juba, South Sudan, following violent unrest in that
country, and left a contingent there to beef up security.

All discussions about basing future SP-MAGTFs on the African continent
are pre-decisional, said Army Maj. Fred Harrell, a spokesman for U.S.
AFRICOM. Any move to base a unit within a country requires the
approval of the host nation, the State and Defense departments and
other government agencies, he said. For now, Hummer and other leaders
are simply conceptualizing new options for dealing with crises in
coming years, he said.

“We have decided the establishment of an African rapid reaction
force.... States are to provide forces to conduct operations,” said
newly appointed AU chair and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel
Aziz.

http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/world/20626-africa-commits-to-rapid-deployment-force.html

AU commission chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma confirmed nine nations had
promised to send soldiers to the force, which was set up in principle
at a summit last year and is seen as a step towards a permanent
standby African peacekeeping force.

But she gave no further details on timelines or its possible size.

When crises break, “it costs us much more the longer we wait.... If
there could be a quick response maybe we could save lives,”
Dlamini-Zuma said.

“A very big problem for the African Union is of course financing their
operations,” said UN Deputy Secretary General Jan Eliasson, calling
for “more action” to bolster standby capacities.

“The cessation of hostilities is not holding 100 percent, in fact
there are several skirmishes, very serious ones in a couple of cases,”
Eliasson said.

“The South Sudan situation is like a wound... where there is a risk of
an infection, and if that spreads and this becomes a regional issue,
it is getting more dangerous.”

Mugabe, who turns 90 years old next month, was elected First
Vice-Chair of the influential AU executive council. The appointment
makes him eligible for the chairmanship of the AU in 2015.

http://nehandaradio.com/2014/02/01/au-credibility-questioned-after-appointing-mugabe-to-top-post/

The ZANU PF leader also takes over the SADC chairmanship later this
year, a role which will coincide with his potential appointment to the
AU chair next year. If this happens, Africa’s key leadership
institutions will effectively be controlled by Mugabe.

Arthur Gwagwa from the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum described the
developments in Africa as “theatre of the absurd.” He told SW Radio
Africa on Friday that the move is an indication of Africa’s
“belligerent attitude towards the West.”

“Africa wants to confront western countries, and what better way than
to put Mugabe in the leadership. This will give him a more powerful
voice and pedestal to shout at the West,” Gwagwa said.

Africa’s energy gap: confident investors needed FT Subscriber

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/01/31/africas-energy-gap-confident-investors-needed/#axzz2s56Ka1tL

Nigeria has been beloved of investors lately, the accessible face of
an irresistible rising demographic in sub-Saharan Africa. But it faces
challenges, and none more so than the paucity of its infrastructure.

A new report this week by Ecobank spells out just how big that
infrastructure gap is, and how it is replicated widely almost
everywhere in mid-Africa. And it does so at a vital moment, as Nigeria
is about to move to the second stage in its privatisation programme,
involving the completion and sale of 10 national integrated power
projects (NPPs), with a target of the end of March.

According to analyst Rolake Akinkugbe, Nigeria has just over 4,000MW
of electricity generation capacity for a population of 160m people.
That’s three times less than New York, which generates 13,000MW for
its 10m people. 13,000MW is also the level of peak demand in Nigeria,
which gives a clear sense of the undercapacity in the country.
It is a picture that is mirrored across the continent. Africa has 15
per cent of the world’s population, Akinkugbe says, but consumes 3 per
cent of world energy output, and generates less than half of the
74,000MW peak demand requirement. One quarter of sub-Saharan Africans
have access to power, and at least 30 middle African countries
experience daily outages, costing them up to 5 per cent of GDP.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.36% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 1 Month Chart INO 11.15722

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9939

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +9.700% 2014 [April 2010 Highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.83% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.14% 2014 Record Life
Time Highs

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Starwood Capital’s Louvre Plans as Many as 16 New Africa Hotels

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-31/starwood-capital-s-louvre-plans-as-many-as-16-new-africa-hotels.html

“Demand is rising,” Sebah said in Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s commercial
capital. “African growth creates wealth and traffic, and boosts the
development of the hotel trade.”

“Africa offers opportunities which no longer need to be demonstrated,”
Sebah said.

Angola Plans 20-Year Kwanza Bond Sales to Boost Central Bank

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-31/angola-plans-20-year-kwanza-bond-sales-to-boost-central-bank-1-.html

Finance Minister Armando Manuel can issue 20-year Treasury bonds
valued at 31.29 billion kwanzas to allow the National Bank of Angola
to meet its capital needs and fund monetary policy operations,
according a decree dated Jan. 10. Manuel may also issue debt due in
two decades worth 27.44 billion kwanzas to bolster the capital levels
and increase the lending capacity of Banco de Desenvolvimento de
Angola, which funds development projects such as roads, rail and
power, a Jan. 9 decree shows.

Angola will also sell an unspecified amount of bonds to support
spending in the 2014 budget, according to a separate Jan. 9 decree.
The debt issue aims to increase the involvement of Angolan financial
institutions in long-term funding of projects to help rebuild the
country after a 27-year civil war that ended in 2002. The government
may sell 670.4 billion kwanzas of debt, separate budget documents
show.

Manuel has the authority to determine the currency, interest rate and
maturity of the debt issues supporting the budget, the decrees show.

Angola pumped 1.48 million barrels a day in January, second to Nigeria
on the continent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

read more


Gunfire erupts as police raid radical Kenyan mosque @Reuters
Kenyan Economy


Gunfire erupted in and around a mosque in the Kenyan port city of
Mombasa on Sunday following a raid by armed police who had received a
tip-off that Muslim youths were being radicalized and trained for
militant attacks.

The raid sparked violent protests inside the Masjid Mussa mosque in
the city's run-down Majengo neighbourhood and in the surrounding
streets. Police fired teargas and live rounds over the heads of
taunting crowds, who hurled stones back.

Breaking up Islamist militant networks among its Muslim minority has
become a priority for Kenya as it tries to end attacks by Somali
militants and their sympathizers bent on punishing it for sending
troops to fight al Shabaab rebels.

"They attacked our mosque, but they're not going to kill our spirit,"
one youth shouted from behind a wall in the mosque's compound. "Jihad
is the way to go."

Mombasa's police chief Robert Kitur said the raid followed a tip off.
When his officers burst into the mosque, where radical clerics
regularly preach, they came under gunfire.

Kitur said ringleaders shielded themselves behind children and
infants, the first time he had seen such a tactic used.

"We found them engaging in radicalization and training of youths,"
Kitur told reporters close to the mosque as the operation went on.

Police seized black banners emblazoned with jihadi slogans, laptops
and DVDs during the raid. Outside the mosque shoes, teargas canisters
and spent bullet cartridges were strewn on the ground.

Worshippers at the Masjid Mussa mosque accuse the security services of
operating a death squad, a charge the police denies.

Kitur said the security forces had arrested more than 100 people
during Sunday's clashes and two officers had been wounded. One
policeman was found sprawled in a pool of blood in a bathroom inside
the mosque and was in critical condition.

"We found him locked up in a bathroom after we heard him groaning. It
appears like they slaughtered him," said one armed policeman who
withheld his name.

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The Swahili Coast is a Potential TinderBox from Lamu through Zanzibar and all points in between September 3rd 2012
Kenyan Economy


We need to craft a road map that effects economic trickledown because
whilst all our eyes were turned towards the Rift Valley, The Pwani has
been simmering. It needs our full attention.

I leave you with this comment from Thomas C Moun- tain a journalist in Eritrea.

‘A future independent state in Mombasa has East Africa’s busiest port,
a 60,000 bpd oil refinery and the world famous hotels, why do they
need Nairobi?’

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Mombasa Island Boxing Day Sunset Kenya 38 days ago
Kenyan Economy


Competition pushes India's Essar Group to sell stake in yuMobile

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/mobile-phone/3500004/competition-pushes-indias-essar-group-to-sell-stake-in-yumobile/

Latest reports suggest price will be $100 million, and Bharti Airtel
may be bidding

Pakistan’s MCB Bank is on the verge of acquiring Kenya’s Middle East
Bank at undisclosed fee

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000103661/pakistan-bank-set-to-acquire-kenya-s-middle-east-bank

read more


“We are meeting the company executives at Indaba. These are solvable issues that we plan to finalise in South Africa but the final agreement will be signed here in Nairobi,” said Mr Balala @Tunajibu @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


If the talks are successful, the export licence could be issued as
early as next week setting Kenya up for its first rutile export of 100
tonnes.

Mr Balala provoked the standoff in August last year when he doubled
the royalties for mineral sands from five to 10 per cent. The company
had during the Kibaki administration negotiated royalties of 2.5 per
cent in the first five years of operation. This would have risen to
five per cent for the rest of the mine’s life.

read more


27-JAN-2014 ::Mineral Export Licence Holdup could hit planned Eurobond
Kenyan Economy


Now allow me to mark your card. Down in Kwale, Base Titanium is all
set to export its first batch of mineral sands.

In fact, mineral sand exports will overtake coffee as Kenya’s fourth
most valuable export.

The ship has been booked and the company is awaiting an export
licence. Base Titanium invested more than $300m in Kwale and at the
port on the basis of an invest- ment agreement signed with the
government of Kenya. Subsequent to the signing of the investor
agreement, the minister has via a gazette notice introduced a higher
royalty regime.
If the Eurobond market (and the Eurobond market is a killer shark)
smells that we are discarding our legally binding agreements, that we
play fast and loose with our signature, then this Eurobond is not
going anywhere and is dead in the water. The blowback from a fumbled
Eurobond is just unconscionable.

read more


The Mine Site Base Titanium #Kwale Mineral Sands Heavy Mineral Concentrate 33 Days ago
Kenyan Economy


Baobab Tree Special Mining Lease Base Titanium #Kwale 33 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/dqnml1

“Bid Investment Company Limited is a subscriber shareholder in a new
investment vehicle, Vania Investment Pool Limited, which was formed
for the purpose of making a competing takeover bid in RVP,” Dilesh
Bid, the firm’s representative said in a statement.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Twist-as-Rea-Vipingo-suitor-exits-the-stage/-/996/2170176/-/158wm39/-/index.html

According to Musti Mamujee one of the minority shareholders in the
land rich sisal firm, the company is worth Sh11 billion (translating
to Sh200 per share).

“The shares are worth over Sh200 each,” he said adding that Vipingo is
doing a valuation of its land.

Rea Vipingo share data and FY Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mw%3D%3D

09-DEC-2013 ::BIDDING WARS:The Robinows vs. Centum

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0912.pdf

The other dynamic is the net asset value. Rea Vipingo’s estates span
the DWA estate near Kibwezi of 22,205 acres, the Amboni estate south
of Tanga of 36,644 acres and Vipingo estate, north of Mombasa which is
10,569 acres. The Vipingo area of course has become a red-hot
residential market. That is a total of 69,418 acres.

Again let’s do a back of the hand calculation 60,000,000 shares x 50 =
3,000,000,000.

3,000,000,000/69,418 = Sh43,216 or $502.00 an acre of land.

I do not know what the value is on a per acre basis but I can bet it
is a multiple of $502.00.

Therefore, what is clear is that this is a land ‘’smash and grab.’’

This situation pertains to every listed agricultural company.

Dubai-based Al-Futtaim was on Thursday still seeking the support of
CMC shareholders owning six per cent stake to complete its takeover of
the car firm @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Al-Futtaim-trails-acceptance-target--in-CMC-takeover/-/539550/2170068/-/2t3lfgz/-/index.html

The company,, which plans to diversify its Kenyan operations to
include retail and real estate, said Friday that CMC shareholders
controlling 69 per cent of the firm had agreed to sell their shares to
the company.

Al-Futtaim needs to get sale commitment from CMC shareholders owning
at least 75 per cent of the company’s shares for the acquisition to
succeed and to have the firm delisted from the Nairobi Securities
Exchange.

This must happen by February 14 as the promoters of the deal seek a 90
per cent threshold to allow for the compulsory acquisition of the
remaining shares for a full buyout of the car dealer.

“The subscription today stands at about 69 per cent,” Marwan Shehadeh,
Al-Futtaim’s corporate development director told Business Daily on
Friday.

Transcentury Cautionary Announcement

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Cautionary%20Safari%20Rail.pdf

IMPORTANT NOTICE
CAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENT

TransCentury Limited (“TransCentury” or “Group”) would like to
announce that its wholly owned subsidiary company, Safari Rail Company
Limited, has exercised an option that will result in a change of its
shareholding in KU Railways Holdings Limited (the lead investor in
Rift Valley Railways). The transaction is in line with the Group’s
overall strategy to maximize the value of its investments for its
Shareholders.
The transaction, which is subject to applicable regulatory
notifications, is expected to close on 31st March 2014.
Investors and the general public are advised to exercise caution when
dealing in the securities of the Group.
By order of the Board of Directors

Mombasa Nairobi Railway

http://www.twitpic.com/7y7qsf

Kenyan railway project putting China’s business model on trial BDLive

http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2014/02/03/kenyan-railway-project-putting-chinas-business-model-on-trial

WHEN Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta laid the foundation stone for the
country’s biggest post-independence infrastructure project late last
year — a high-speed railway line from the port at Mombasa to Nairobi —
he said the scheme would define his political legacy.

But it was not long before the storm clouds gathered over the contract
and, just a few weeks later, two probes had been launched into the
costs, the legality of the procurement process and the ethics of the
deal.

The project is 85% funded by the Export-Import Bank of China, which
made it a condition that construction be executed by China Road &
Bridge Corporation, a company debarred by the World Bank for fraud
relating to a contract in the Philippines.

Critics claim the project is overpriced. Cost estimates rose from
$2.5bn to $3.8bn after it was decided that China would supply rolling
stock and locomotives, a decision that was not subjected to a bidding
process.

Questions have been raised about China being both player and referee —
doing the feasibility study, designing the project, determining the
cost and offering the finance on the condition that a Chinese company
gets the construction contract.

The existing line serving the 470km route is a narrow-gauge line built
by the colonials. It is slow and inefficient because of age, neglect
and lack of maintenance, which has driven the bulk of regional freight
to the nearby highway, itself hardly an efficient transport link.

Kenyatta, who inherited the project from the previous regime, sees it
as a key driver in his plan to stimulate regional integration and
trade. He says the new railway will reduce freight costs to eight US
cents a tonne per kilometre, from the present 20c.

Kenyatta has vociferously defended the deal with China, as have his
officials, who say it is a government-to-government affair, which
allows it to bypass the normal procurement channels.

The head of Kenya’s Treasury claimed China was approached about the
deal only after years of negotiations with other funders failed to
secure the required financing. But China Road & Bridge Corporation has
been active in building infrastructure in Kenya for some time.

Some Kenyan commentators say the political noise surrounding this
issue is not so much about the contract as such, but is part of a
broader battle among factions in the new ruling alliance for the
opportunity to broker multibillion-dollar Chinese-funded
infrastructure projects.

The theory goes that government officials and high-level business
people linked to them, who lost out in this behind-the-scenes battle
for a slice of the rail contract pie, are encouraging those shouting
loudest about ethical problems related to it.

There is yet another theory about why the Kenyan government has
allowed itself to be so manipulated by China — competition for
regional superiority. If Kenya does not accept the Chinese money,
could it be diverted to another regional project that would compete
with Kenya for business? China’s pledge to fund a multibillion-dollar
port in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, a stone’s throw from Mombasa, has already
rattled the Kenyans.

But what seems to be really on trial here is China’s style of doing
business in Africa.

African governments’ preference for Chinese funding is obvious in the
number of deals they have done.

But a widely held assumption in Africa that China’s deals come without
conditions is wrong. They are negotiated in such a way as to create
new frontiers for Chinese labour, capital, materials and contract
fees.

A Deloitte report last year said the bulk of funding for African
projects commissioned by mid-2013 came from China — $43.6bn compared
to $43.4bn from development finance institutions. In turn, Chinese
companies are earning a rising share of project fees.

The Kenya railway saga highlights the fact that Africa’s sorely needed
infrastructure may be being built, but the price might be higher than
bargained for.

Ordinary citizens are mostly unaware of such rarified deals. Whether
it was internal political battles or genuine concern about ethics that
raised a flag on the Kenya project is not important. What is important
for Africa’s future is that this engagement is being interrogated and
debated, unlike most of the continent’s dealings with China.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.518 last

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  -1.46% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Fell 6.85% over 5 Sessions last week

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.44% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Fell 235.15 points and 4.618% over 5 Sessions last week.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Sunrise over the Mara River as seen from the Olakira camp. John Becker

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/02/travel/in-east-africa-safaris-that-leave-a-lighter-footprint.html?_r=0

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share could not snap a 6 session losing Streak but
eased just 0.08 points or 0.05% to close at 134.58.
The Nairobi All Share +5.795% start of the Year through January 24th
when it closed at an All Time High.
subsequently and since the 24th and over 6 Trading Sessions the
Nairobi All Share retreated 6.910%.
Session 4 [Thursday] and Session 5 [Friday] were particularly brutal.
Todays marginal retreat is signalling the Exchange might have found
some firmer footing.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 27.8 points to close at 4828.34.
Equity Turnover was 707.11m and interestingly the Demand versus Supply
Ratio inflected positively for a number of Counters.
There were 16 Winners and 26 Losers.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kapchorua Tea firmed 2.7% to close at a Fresh 52 week High of 152.00
and traded shares as high as 160.00 +8.11%. Kapchorua Tea is +21.6% in
2014 and is a Piece of what has been a broad based Rally triggered by
the Bidding War for Rea Vipingo which represented the Penny dropping
for Investors in this rarefied Niche. An old Family Friend. Musti
Mamujee in an interview with the Business Daily put out a price of
200/= a share for Rea Vipingo.
Eaagads firmed 0.86% to close at a Fresh 52 week high of 29.25 and is
+23.15% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +1.8181% to close at 11.20 and was trading at 11.40
+3.64% session Highs at the Closing Bell. Safaricom traded 15.522m
shares worth 174.081m and Buyers outweighed Sellers by a Factor of 3
versus 1 at the Closing Bell. Safaricom rallied 14.746% from the start
of January through January 24th. Safaricom then corrected 11.646% over
the next 5 sessions and started February
and this mornings session just 1.328% above where it started January.
It was a Brutal Sell-Off across the Securities Exchange last week and
the fact that Safaricom based out ahead of its starting Point for 2014
[which was 10.85] will be seen as positive by the Chartists.

Express Kenya was the biggest Gainer at the Securities Exchange and
rallied +9.64% to close at 4.55 and traded 21,000 shares. Express is
+16.66% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Diamond Trust Bank [which has seen some very Heavy Trading Action of
late and last week and whose CEO Nasim Devji it was good to catch up
with over the weekend] rallied 2.33% to close at 219.00 and traded
504,800 shares worth 100.988m. Diamond Trust is +14.0625% in 2014 and
3.097% beneath a Life Time High of 226.00 reached 27th through 30th
January. Diamond Trust Bank issued a Notice of an Extraordinary
General Meeting on 4th March 2014, where DTB is to sell 22 million
extra shares by way of a rights issue. Shares are tightly held and the
Rights Issue is by no means a supersize Call as it appears to be 1
Rights Share for every 10 held.

Diamond Trust Bank share price data here +14.0625% 2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTY%3D

Barclays Bank is expected to report its FY Earnings this week and
firmed 5cents to  close at 17.00.

Kenya Commercial Bank eased 1.73% to close at 42.50 and a 2014 Low.
Kenya Commercial Bank traded 765,300 shares and was trading at 43.50
+0.58% session Highs at the Finale. There was a 2 versus 1 Buyer
versus Seller Imbalance at the Closing Bell signalling a near term
Bottom.
Equity Bank retreated 4.838% to close at 29.50 and a 2014 Low. Equity
Bank traded 3.624m shares worth 108.353m. Equity Bank is -4.065% in
2014 but was trading at 30.50 -1.61% session highs at the Finish Line,
signalling today might have been a near term Bottom.
COOP Bank firmed 0.29% to close at 17.45 and traded 1.741m shares.
COOP Bank is -1.69% in 2014.
I&M Bank retreated 4.72% to close at 121.00 and traded 6,600 shares.
I&M Bank is +0.83% in 2014.

NIC Bank was the biggest loser at the Securities Exchange today and
retreated 6.78% to close at 55.00 and traded 155,300 shares. NIC Bank
is -8.333% in 2014.

Transcentury issued an enigmatic Cautionary Announcement where
''TransCentury Limited ("TransCentury" or "Group") would like to
announce that its wholly owned subsidiary company, Safari Rail Company
Limited, has exercised an option that will result in a change of its
shareholding in KU Railways Holdings Limited (the lead investor in
Rift Valley Railways). The transaction is in line with the Group's
overall strategy to maximize the value of its investments for its
Shareholders.'' On the balance of probabilities, it looks they are
exercising a Put. Transcentury closed unchanged at 29.25 and traded
600 shares. There were Offers for more than 750,000 shares.
Transcentury is +1.73% in 2014.

Transcentury Cautionary Announcement

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Cautionary%20Safari%20Rail.pdf



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL which had fallen 10.689% in January, rebounded 2.7% to close at
266.00 and traded session highs of 271.00 +4.63% at the Finale. EABL
saw heavy action and traded 2nd at the Securities Exchange with
509,600 shares worth 135.691m changing hands. EABL's share price has
been meeting Interference as Investors fret about Senator Volumes but
I am sure all that news is now baked into the Price and some.

Mumias Sugar rallied +3.38% off a 52 week Low to close at 3.05 and was
trading at session Highs of 3.20 +8.47% at the closing Bell. Mumias
Sugar traded 1.108m shares and had a 2 versus 1 Buy versus Sale Ratio
Imbalance at the Finish. Mumias Sugar is -6.153% in 2014.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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