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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 05th of February 2014

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

#Mindspeak 2014 RICH TV

Charles Ireland Interview RICH TV @YouTube

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The View of Nairobi from the 8th Floor 18 days ago

I am finishing up The Comedians by Graham Greene and I must say I have
enjoyed it but I found The Comedians a bitter-sweet experience a
little V.S Naipaul's A Bend in the River. In both Books The Horror
lurks just a whisker away.

"The horror! The horror!"
-- Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness and the Congo Diary

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The Hollow Men T.S. Eliot MISTAH KURTZ--HE DEAD.

A penny for the Old Guy

Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o'clock in the morning.

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom

Between the conception
And the creation
Between the emotion
And the response
Falls the Shadow
Life is very long

Between the desire
And the spasm
Between the potency
And the existence
Between the essence
And the descent
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom

For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

"But his soul was mad. Being alone in the wilderness, it had looked
within itself and, by heavens I tell you, it had gone mad."
-- Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness and the Congo Diary

"We live as we dream--alone...."
-- Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

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Close to the centre of Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat on the Cote d'Azur, this recently completed contemporary villa is situated in its own secluded and gated grounds.

It has a large living room, dining room, fitted kitchen, wine cellar
and home cinema. The infinity pool overflows on three sides, giving
spectacular views over the bay. There is also a children's pool, steam
room, and a glass Jacuzzi that seats eight. The master suite includes
a boudoir and a study, and there are three further bedrooms. The site
has enough room to build two more guest apartments.

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The House under the Palms in the exclusive Palmeraie area of Marrakech is more a palace than a mansion.

Decorated with intricate designs, it took 2,000 craftsmen and three
years to complete. It has eight bedrooms, including four enormous
suites, staff accommodation, offices and a cottage and comes with
about 12 acres of land. There are water features and fountains, a rose
garden and a cactus garden and immaculate irrigated walkways lined
with palms.

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Ekaterina Sokirianskaia, the North Caucasus project director for the International Crisis Group. "You need a committed jihadi and a bomb, which is quite cheap and you can make it at home. It's difficult to deal with."
Law & Politics

According to ITU estimates, there will be 6.8 billion mobile-cellular
subscriptions by the end of 2013 - almost as many as there are people
on the planet


By end 2013, there will be an estimated 2.7 billion people using the
Internet worldwide. In other words, there are still 4.4 billion people
who are not yet online.

While growth in mobile-cellular penetration is flattening, reaching 96
per cent by end 2013, mobile broadband continues to grow strongly, on
average by around 40 per cent annually between 2010 and 2013.

Mobile broadband has been the fastest growing market segment over the
past few years, with a 40 per cent average annual growth (CAGR) since
2007. It is growing rapidly not only in developed but also in
developing countries, where subscriptions doubled over the past two
years and now outnumber subscriptions in developed countries. Even in
Africa, penetration rates will reach almost 11 per cent by end 2013,
up from 2 per cent only three years earlier, and will continue to grow

Cisco forecasts that "global mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold
between 2012 and 2017. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66
per cent from 2012 to 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month by 2017

Indeed, the gap between Africa and Asia (the two regions with the
lowest household Internet penetrations) is substantial, with a
penetration rate of 6.7 per cent in the former compared with 32.7 per
cent in the latter


Its an Information Century.

We all live in an information age - or so we tell each other as we
caress our smart phones like rosary beads, heads down, checking,
monitoring, tweeting @JohnPilger


We're wired; we're on message; and the dominant theme of the message
is ourselves. Identity is the zeitgeist.

A lifetime ago in Brave New World, Aldous Huxley predicted this as the
ultimate means of social control because it was voluntary, addictive
and shrouded in illusions of personal freedom. Perhaps the truth is
that we live not in an information age but a media age. Like the
memory of Mandela, the media's wondrous technology has been hijacked.
From the BBC to CNN, the echo chamber is vast.

In his acceptance of the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2005, Harold
Pinter spoke about a "manipulation of power worldwide, while
masquerading as a force for universal good, a brilliant, even witty,
highly successful act of hypnosis." But, said Pinter, "it never
happened. Nothing ever happened. Even while it was happening it wasn't
happening. It didn't matter. It was of no interest."

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has been engaged in secret
contacts with the Taliban about reaching a peace agreement without the
involvement of his American and Western allies @nytimes


The secret contacts appear to help explain a string of actions by Mr.
Karzai that seem intended to antagonize his American backers, Western
and Afghan officials said. In recent weeks, Mr. Karzai has continued
to refuse to sign a long-term security agreement with Washington that
he negotiated, insisted on releasing hardened Taliban militants from
prison and distributed distorted evidence of what he called American
war crimes.

Support for the war effort in Congress has deteriorated sharply, and
American officials say they are uncertain whether they can maintain
even minimal security cooperation with Mr. Karzai's government or its
successor after coming elections.

Frustrated by Mr. Karzai's refusal to sign the security agreement,
which would clear the way for American troops to stay on for training
and counterterrorism work after the end of the year, President Obama
has summoned his top commanders to the White House on Tuesday to
consider the future of the American mission in Afghanistan.

Western and Afghan officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
because of the private nature of the peace contacts, said that the
outreach was apparently initiated by the Taliban in November, a time
of deepening mistrust between Mr. Karzai and his allies. Mr. Karzai
seemed to jump at what he believed was a chance to achieve what the
Americans were unwilling or unable to do, and reach a deal to end the
conflict -- a belief that few in his camp shared.

Aimal Faizi, the spokesman for Mr. Karzai, acknowledged the secret
contacts with the Taliban and said they were continuing.

"The last two months have been very positive," Mr. Faizi said. He
characterized the contacts as among the most serious the presidential
palace has had since the war began. "These parties were encouraged by
the president's stance on the bilateral security agreement and his
speeches afterwards," he said.

President Karzai


is trying to sue for Peace before Mullah Omar hangs him by the Neck as
Najibullah was.

Mullar Omar Wikipedia


''I am considering two promises. One is the promise of Allah, the
other of Bush. The promise of Allah is that my land is vast...the
promise of Bush is that there is no place on Earth where I can hide
that he won't find me. We shall see which promise is fulfilled. "
--Mullah Omar, 2001

Mullah Omar


Najibullah alive


Photo: Afghanistan's former president Najibullah (L) and his
brother Shahpur Ahmadzai are hanged at the Ariana square ...


Babur, the first Moghul emperor Wine and tulips in Kabul


Babur enjoyed himself too. He loved nature, and describes the local
flora and fauna in exquisite detail. "The flying squirrel is found in
these mountains, an animal larger than a bat, with a curtain, like a
bat's wing, between its arms and legs...Tulips of many colours cover
these foothills: I myself counted 32 or 33 different sorts." He
developed a lifelong passion for gardening. He bought some land at
Istalif, north of Kabul. He loved the place: "Few villages match
Istalif, with vineyards and orchards on either side of its torrent,
its waters cold and pure". But the zig-zagging stream offended his
sense of order: "I had it made straight and regular, so the place was
very beautiful." His grandson Akbar had this scene illustrated for an
edition of the Baburnama (see picture).

From Monsoon by Robert D. Kaplan


P.13 In other words, the Indian Ocean will be where global power
dynamics will be revealed. Together with the contiguous Near East and
Central Asia, it constitutes the new Great Game in Geopolitics.

P.100 @narendramodi ''is not only the most dangerously charismatic
politician in India today, he may be the only charismatic one.''

P.116 Empires rise and fall. Only their Ideas remain, adapted to the
needs of the People they once ruled.

China's Oil Pipeline Through Myanmar Brings Both Energy and Resentment


Until recently, 80 percent of China's oil and gas imports were
transported by ship through a narrow waterway separating Indonesia and
Malaysia, known as the Strait of Malacca. The possibility that hostile
forces could one day block that crucial passageway and starve the
country of energy has long made China's leaders nervous.

In 2009, two state-owned energy giants inked a $2.5 billion agreement
to loosen the pinch: China National Petroleum and Myanmar Oil & Gas
Enterprise agreed to lay down more than 500 miles of oil and gas
pipelines from Myanmar's western coast to China's southwestern Yunnan
province. When the oil pipeline goes online later this year, tankers
carrying crude from the Middle East and Africa will be able to dock at
Myanmar's port of Kyaukpyu and send as many as 440,000 barrels of oil
a day overland to China. Industry news service Platts (MHFI) reports
that the oil pipeline is 75 percent complete and should be operational
by June.

A parallel gas pipeline went into operation last July, capable of
transporting as much as 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas per
year across Myanmar to China.

"China's piped gas is mainly imported from areas around the Malacca
Strait," Lin Boqiang, a professor with the China Center for Energy
Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the state-run Global
Times. "Now we have one more pipeline from the land instead of the
seabed, which will decrease" China's energy vulnerability.

At the time the pipeline project was launched, Myanmar was still ruled
by a military junta and acted as a de facto vassal state to China.
Neither is the case today. "Myanmar's remarkable democratic transition
over the past couple of years has unleashed a wave of anti-Chinese
feeling," Tom Miller, managing editor ofChina Economic Quarterly,
wrote in a research brief last summer.

"Myanmar is starting to act less like a client state and more like an
independent one. China knows its pipelines are vulnerable to a strike
by nationalist rebels--or, potentially, to an unfriendly government."
Miller referenced a text message that went viral across Myanmar in
late 2012: "Chinese get out. We're not afraid of you."

One recent clash at a pipeline work camp seemingly attests to the rise
of anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar. Last week police detained more
than 20 Burmese pipeline workers after a feud with Chinese workers at
the same construction siteescalated to arson, ending with an
oil-storage facility and another building engulfed in flames on Jan.
27; an investigation is ongoing.

One Burmese resident of a nearby town told the newspaper Irrawaddy:
"It is unjust that the Chinese are the ones who started the problem
but none of them got arrested." Expect more sparks to fly.


Thats a Break Out of the Encirclement Trade for China and I expect a
serious Spike in the Asymmetric Threat to that Pipeline.

@Aiww's The Snake [The Pivot is all about the Encirclement of China]
@Hirshhorn 446 days ago


A third of Saudi internet users access Twitter each month, the largest
proportion in the world, according to data from PeerReach.


YouTube and Instagram are the other two most popular social media
sites in the kingdom.

Adam Curtis: BBC Interviews with Gaddafi 1976 and 1977 @YouTube


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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011
Law & Politics

The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Liby- an dictator
Muammar Gaddafi and his son Mo'tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of
questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and
half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata.

John Donne wrote: "... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell
tolls, It tolls for thee..."

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan's prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that 'The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village' has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

'Don't Fxxx with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.'

That same person is probably repeating Muammar's comment, "I tell the
coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can't get me. I live in
the hearts of millions."

And asking 'Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?'

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3511
Dollar Index 81.12
Japan Yen 101.40 The yen weakened 0.7 percent to 101.64 per dollar at
5 p.m. New York time, after appreciating to 100.76, the strongest
level since Nov. 21
Swiss Franc 0.9039
Pound 1.6330
Aussie 0.8890 "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of
stability in interest rates." The currency added 2 percent to 89.25
U.S. cents
India Rupee 62.435
South Korea Won 1080.60
Brazil Real 2.4093
Egypt Pound 6.9622
South Africa Rand 11.1371 The currency appreciated 1.6 percent to
11.0983 per dollar, rising the most since Jan. 30.

The yen strengthened 5.5 percent this year, the best performer among
10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar gained 1.4 percent and the
euro slipped 0.5 percent.

Twenty one of the 24 developing-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
rallied against the dollar yesterday.

EM got some respite.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.12


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3511


The euro slipped for the seventh time in eight days against the dollar
after ECB President Mario Draghi was said to consider ending the
sterilization of crisis-era bond purchases, which would add liquidity
into the region's financial system. The central bank meets Feb. 6.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.40


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1254.045 [I am not buying the Bounce I am selling it]


Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 97.63 [Hoping to set up a Triple Digit short]


DESSERT FIRST | New style 'klepon,' a kind of Balinese dumpling
with beet yogurt and pumpkin-seed oil powder WSJ


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"I call China the mystery meat of emerging-market countries," Gross said during an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers" with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle.
Emerging Markets

"Nobody knows what's there and there's a little bit of bologna, so
we're just going to have to wonder going forward through this year as
to the potential problems in China and other emerging markets."

Turkey's banks are having a bad time. The sector's 16-bank MSCI index
fell by as much as 15 per cent during the past month, hitting a
price-to-book ratio of less than 1 for the first time in five years


The Turkish lira appreciated 2 percent to 2.2382 per dollar, paring
this year's drop to 4 percent.

Turkey's central bank provided one billion liras ($445 million) in its
one-week repurchase agreement auction today, the lowest amount in six
days. The cost of funding for banks rose to 9.26 percent on Jan. 29,
the highest level since June 2012, according to central bank data.
Policy makers raised the bank's benchmark interest rate to 10 percent
last month from 4.5 percent, citing the lira's slump and inflation

Frontier Markets

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India's foreign minister to visit Sudan on Tuesday: official Sudan Tribune

India is the third largest economic partner for Sudan in the oil
industry after China and Malaysia and its affiliated companies produce
about 25% of the country's oil .

The south Asian nation also extended $700 million in development loans
to Sudan and also has investments in roads, electricity and sugar.

Last July, New Delhi agreed to Sudan's request to revise repayment
terms on lines of credit worth $566.9 million.

The Indian ambassador in Khartoum S.K. Verma told Agence France Presse
(AFP) that the impact of unrest in South Sudan on India's $2 billion
investment in the region's oil sector will be under discussion.

But Verma said the seven-week-old conflict in South Sudan was not the
reason for Khurshid's stop, which would focus more broadly on "the way
forward" in India-Sudan relations.

"Our largest investment remains in the energy sector, petroleum
sector," Verma said, putting the value at around $2.3 billion before
South Sudan separated from Khartoum in 2011 with about three-quarters
of the united country's oil production.

India's ONGC Videsh Ltd, a partner in two joint oil production
companies in South Sudan, announced on December 26 that the firms had
temporarily halted operations there because of deteriorating security.

India aims to augment its bilateral trade with Africa to at least
US$100 billion by 2015, up from the current $70 bn.


Back in October at the third Africa-India Ministers of Trade meeting,
Anand Sharma, India's Commerce and Industry Minister, described that
as a modest target. The United Nations' Comtrade office estimates that
India-Africa trade could in fact reach $176 bn. by 2015, if
year-on-year growth rates between 2001 and 2011 hold firm. African
exports to India, too, could hit more than $121 bn., provided that
India's demand for fuel and minerals remains strong.

Malawi's Former Justice Minister Faces Murder Charges in Court Businessweek


The shooting of former budget director Paul Mphwiyo in September
sparked demands for a probe into allegations that as much as 30
percent of state funds was being embezzled in what local media dubbed
"cashgate." President Joyce Banda fired her cabinet the next month,
while donors, which provide 40 percent of the budget, froze as much as
$120 million in aid.

Kasambara was arrested last month on a separate charge of money
laundering and was released on bail. He denies both charges.

"I feel this case holds the key to the truth behind what really
happened for the country to lose such a huge sum of money," Billy
Banda, executive director of the Blantyre-based rights group, Malawi
Watch, said today in an interview. "The former justice minister has
named President Joyce Banda as his key witness. We want to know how
involved the president was in this cashgate saga."

Banda, 63, has denied involvement in graft and vowed to press ahead
with investigations into corruption even if it means she loses
elections scheduled for this year. The probes into as many as 69 civil
servants, businessmen and politicians have led to departures of
members of Banda's People's Party to the opposition, which includes
Peter Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party, the United Democratic
Front and the Malawi Congress Party.

Banda became Africa's second female president when she succeeded Bingu
wa Mutharika, Peter's brother, who died in office in April 2012. She
devalued the kwacha and raised fuel prices a month after taking
office, unlocking aid from donors such as the U.K. and the
International Monetary Fund and sparking nationwide protests over
rising prices.

About half of Malawi's 15 million people live on less than $1 a day,
according to the IMF. The country is Africa's top exporter of burley
tobacco, a low-grade variety of the crop. Limbe Leaf Tobacco Co., a
unit of U.S.-based Universal Corp., Alliance One International Inc.
(AOI:US) and Japan Tobacco Inc. (2914) are among buyers in the nation.
The economy was estimated at $4.27 billion in 2012 by the World Bank.

Malawi ranked 91st out of 175 countries on Transparency
International's 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index, down from 37th, the
year before.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.83% 2014


Dollar versus Rand 1 Month Chart INO 11.1359


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9616


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.51% 2014


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.63% 2014


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.92% 2014 [Fresh all
Time Highs]


The Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index advanced 1.8 percent to
2,358.87 by the close in Accra, the highest since the index was
introduced in January 2011. The gauge has gained for 15 days, the
longest rally since March.


30-DEC-2013 Africa Remains in a Sweet Spot


MOZAMBIQUE's minister of transport and communications Mr Eusébio
Saíde unveiled the first four of 10 GE Transportation C30ACi diesel
locomotives for Mozambique Railways (CFM) on January 29.


The killing fields of South Sudan: @nicholesobecki visits Bor,
where 100s were slain


A migrant fisherwoman from Mali pulling her pots from the Gambia
River. Photo Booth


A watchman relaxes on a floating jetty near the Gambian village of
Bonto. Photo Booth


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International court to decide future of Kenyan president trial @Reuters
Kenyan Economy

The fate of the politically fraught trial of Kenyan President Uhuru
Kenyatta could be decided on Wednesday, when prosecutors at the
International Criminal Court plead for more time.

Kenyatta's lawyers hope the case will be thrown out, putting an end to
a trial that has driven a wedge between African countries - which
criticize the ICC for targeting their continent - and the court's
Western backers.

The Kenyatta trial is crucial to the ICC, which has secured only one
conviction and suffered a string of collapsed cases since it was set
up 11 years ago. Kenya says the court risks destabilizing east Africa
if it presses on with the charges.

Western countries, while keen to back the ICC, are also anxious to
maintain relations with Kenya, seen as a key ally in the battle
against militant Islamism in neighboring Somalia.

The trial had been due to start on Wednesday, but was postponed for a
fourth time last month when prosecutors said another witness had
withdrawn, and requested more time to gather evidence.

Prosecutors say their witnesses have been blackmailed or intimidated
into withdrawing.

In a January 31 court filing, prosecutors said a "climate of fear" had
weakened their case against Kenyatta, and said judges should rule that
Kenya was in breach of its obligation to help the court's

"Several individuals with information relevant to the case refused to
agree to be included on the prosecution's witness list due to fears
that they or their family members would be targeted," prosecutors said
in the filing.

Prosecutors say authorities have obstructed attempts to interview
police officers, and have given investigators only limited access to
phone records crucial to building their case.

"Kenyatta's statements in which he accused the court of being 'the toy
of declining imperial powers' engaged in 'bias and race-hunting' and
the (Kenyan government's) multi-faceted campaign to derail the ICC
process on the diplomatic front suggest a lack of willingness to
co-operate," they wrote.

But Kenyatta's lawyers dismissed the prosecution request for extra
time, labeling it a "last-ditch attempt ... to obtain fresh evidence
in a failed case," and said judges should throw out the charges
against their client.


Witness Attrition Rates in a Witness based Prosecution means this Case
is all over bar the shouting. You don't request adjournments more than
5 years down the Track if You have a compelling case.

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Africa's future is not seen in the rear view mirror @FT Mar 12, 2013 12:15pm
Kenyan Economy

Kenya hurdled the elections this week after a fashion and snapped a
sequence of botched elections running all the way back to 1992. The
exception was 2002. Queues of Kenyans turned up to affirm their faith
in the democratic process. At the final count the IEBC declared that
86 per cent of the registered voters had participated. That is an
extraordinary number and gives a stamp of legitimacy to the process.

Despite the beta and volatility we witnessed around the counting
process, the switch to manual, the IT bug that multiplied the rejected
votes by a factor of eight, we arrived at a clear cut winner in the
first round.

I appreciate the outcome is being contested but it is being contested
in the courts and not on the street. And the remarkable thing is that
the ground has shifted. A call for mass action would have shredded the
bona fides of the prime minister in an instant. This extraordinary
turnaround and a largely violence-free election confirms a tipping
point. It represents a positive contagion.

Complexities remain around the process at the International Criminal
Court. The incoming president has confirmed severally that he will
cooperate with the ICC. He has to be taken at his word. Kenya remains
the geopolitical pivot and the linchpin state in the East African
Community. Half of our stock market is held by UK-listed companies.
Diageo has a majority stake in EABL. Vodafone has 40 per cent of
Safaricom, to name just two. Somalia would not have been stabilised or
be in its current new steady state without our help. I think that
Barack Obama's pivot to Asia detours through Africa and that the US is
seeking to roll back China in Africa. Therefore, I remain of the view
that realpolitik, security and business interests will temper the
current ideological position.
It does not make sense for our western partners to lose us to the
eager clutches of China and India. It does not make sense for us to
lose our western partners. We are better off being multipolar and
multilateral in our relationships.

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EM taper tantrums delaying Kenya eurobond issue? @FT
Kenyan Economy

Kenyan officials are on a round of investment meetings in London to
discuss the country's debut eurobond, pegged at $2bn, says the central
bank. But market volatility is proving a nuisance and Kenya could be
forced to delay the much-anticipated bond.

On Tuesday, analysts at Fitch Ratings said in a teleconference in
London that the issue was unlikely to take place before April. Those
remarks contrast with those of Kenyan officials, who reportedly said
on Monday they were going ahead with plans to issue this month. So, is
it going to happen?

This from Stephen Charangwa, fixed income portfoilio manager at Silk Invest:

The current market volatility in EM could further delay the issuance
but any opportune window of stability in market conditions in the
interim could see them coming to the market impromptu. It is
increasingly a question of when, not if, for this debut issue.
Overall, we expect the issue to be comfortably taken up by foreign
investors despite a projected Debt/GDP of 50%, above recent regional
peer issuers, but still relatively low from a global perspective. The
potential use of proceeds to retire the $600m syndicated loan will
somewhat reassure investors concerned with spiralling debt servicing
costs with rising debt.

An official at the Central Bank of Kenya did confirm that a team
arrived in London this week to discuss the sale, without disclosing
further details.

Carmen Altenkirch, Fitch's lead analyst for Kenya, said: "In terms of
when they are likely to go in, I think at the moment markets are
obviously very volatile. So even if the Kenyan authorities were
looking to go in early March, I think they may well delay slightly
until volatility dies down."

Richard Fox, head of Middle East and Africa sovereigns, said: "If you
look at last May when we had the taper tantrum, it took a couple of
months for the market to settle down, in fact [for] Nigeria to issue.
You could be looking at a couple of months delay.

"At the end of the day how much they issue and when they issue will be
very much determined by market conditions, as of course will be the
price they will end up having to pay," he said.

Altenkirch added: "The question is exactly how much they decide to
issue. In the market you've heard figures bouncing around of anything
between $1.5bn and 2bn, with at least 600m of that going to repay
Kenya's more expensive syndicated loan that they took out in 2012.
There are two things worth bearing in mind. The first, although of not
immediate concern, is the roll over risk.

Interestingly, if Kenya were to go ahead with the $2bn issue, it would
amount to roughly 30% of the country's current foreign currency
reserve, which is significantly higher than recent issuers like Ghana
and Zambia.

"The second and perhaps more immediate concern is the possibility of
high carry costs, if the funds cannot be put to use immediately,
although this needs to be weighed up against the risks that we will
see further increases in interest rates as Fed tapering gathers
momentum during the course of this year."

And this from Ahmed Salim, senior associate at Teneo Intelligence:

Kenya's economic outlook, which by all accounts is positive, has
provided the environment for the issue to occur. The government is
keen on issuing the bond as soon as it can, but there are risks of
further delay especially since they have only now begun to market to
investors. The assumption is that global investors will have the
appetite for the issue which is why the IMF's support was seen as a
much-needed endorsement. The doubts will continue to be centered on
factors that can undermine the economic outlook and worry investors
(security and fiscal challenges). Some economists have also expressed
concern over how long the government and central bank can maintain the
strong exchange rates in the long term.


Aly-Khan Satchu | February 5 5:00am | Permalink
It is a very rare Thing when all the Ducks stack up in a row unless of
course, You are, of course Paul Kagame's Rwanda and you just happen to
slot the Eurobond markets when the US 10 Year is at a bubble low Yield
of 1.795%. Furthermore, Turmoil in EM Markets has put a Safe Haven bid
into the US Bond Market and has rallied the 10 Year close to 40 bps.
Given that the US 10 Year is the Baseline, The Kenya Government is
gaining some small relief from that baseline improvement. And who is
to predict whether this Tantrum might well morph into something
entirely more brutal later down the Track this year. Therefore, I
would err on the side of pricing with a degree of concession and
pulling the Trigger sooner rather than later. The Frontier Markets
remain nascent and Asset Class Demand for SSA Sovereign Paper is
muscular. Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi

27-JAN-2014 ::Mineral Export Licence Holdup could hit planned Eurobond


04-NOV-2013 ::Kenya joins Africa's Eurobond League


Kenya: 4 men charged in court for airport bombing @washingtonpost


Four men, including a man identified as a Somali diplomat, have been
charged in a Kenyan court with terrorism-related offenses for the
detonation of an improvised explosive device at a popular restaurant
at the Nairobi international airport.

The four denied involvement Tuesday in the Jan. 16 attack, which blew
up a trash can and part of the ceiling of the Java House restaurant
near the entrance of an international departure terminal at Jomo
Kenyatta International Airport. No one was injured.

international Internet bandwidth per Internet user increased
substantially in 2012, and Kenya has become the country with the
largest amount of international Internet bandwidth per Internet user
in the Africa region


increase in international Internet bandwidth per Internet user, which
jumped from 4 500 Mbit/s in 2011 to 24 000 Mbit/s in 2012. In terms of
international Internet bandwidth per Internet user, this makes Kenya
the bandwidth-richest country in Africa (Box 2.11).

The government will not inject fresh capital in KenGen during the
planned rights issue, Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir has


Instead, the state, which holds a 70 per cent stake in the Nairobi
Securities Exchange (NSE)-listed firm, will convert part of a debt
that KenGen owes the government into equity. At the moment the
electricity generator owes the government a total of Sh27 billion.

"We will propose to the Cabinet to allow government to convert its
debt to equity," Mr Chirchir said in an interview.

At an annual general meeting held in December, shareholders approved a
proposal to raise Sh15 billion through a rights issue and an
additional Sh15 billion through debt.

To keep a hold of its 70 per cent stake, the government needs to
inject about Sh11 billion. The rights issue is planned to be concluded
before June.

"The equity we are looking to raise needs to come in before we borrow.
We could also invite a strategic investor," said KenGen managing
director, Mr Albert Mugo. The money will be used to fast-rack its
multibillion shilling projects in power production.

A consortium led by Barclays, Dyer and Blair Investment Bank, KPMG and
law firm Hamilton Harrison & Mathews -- currently arranging a Sh430
billion ($5 billion) through bonds and loans -- will shepherd the cash

Among the projects lined up are two coal plants at Lamu and Kitui's
Mui Basin area, the grand 280MW geothermal project and some 100MW of
wind power near the border of Meru and Isiolo counties.

KenGen share price data here -11.764% 2014


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.348 Last


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.10% 2014


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.87% 2014


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


read more

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2014

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