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Tuesday 04th of March 2014
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Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Big Thank You to Charles Ireland CEO EABL for a wonderfully incisive #Mindspeak Africa |
Macro Thoughts
BUY RUSSIA
Home Thoughts
"It had been dark at the beach for hours, he hadn't been smoking much
and it wasn't headlights - but before she turned away, he could swear
he saw light falling on her face, the orange light just after sunset
that catches a face turned to the west, watching the ocean for someone
to come in on the last wave of the day, in to shore and safety."
-- Thomas Pynchon, Inherent Vice
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Take a look around and you'll see a world at the boiling point. From Ukraine to Syria, South Sudan to Thailand, Libya to Bosnia, Turkey to Venezuela, citizen protest (left and right) is sparking not just disorganization, Law & Politics |
BREAKING. The commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet Aleksandr Vitko
has given Ukrainian military forces in Crimea until 05:00 local time
(04:00 Prague Time) Tuesday to surrender or bases in the Crimea would
be stormed. (Via Interfax and Ukrainskaya Pravda)
President @BarackObama said on Monday night that Russia was "on the
wrong side of history" with its incursion into the Crimean peninsula
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-putin-is-on-the-wrong-side-of-history-says-president-obama-9166831.html
The Moscow stock market fell 10.8 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion
off the value of Russian companies, more than the $51 billion Russia
spent on the Winter Olympics in Sochi last month.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140304
The central bank spent as much as $12 billion of its reserves to prop
up the ruble as investors reacted to tensions with the West over the
former Soviet republic.
Putin declared at the weekend he had the right to invade Ukraine to
protect Russian interests and citizens.
Moscow's U.N. envoy told a stormy meeting of the Security Council on
Monday that Ukraine's ousted leader Viktor Yanukovich had sent a
letter to Putin requesting he use Russia's military to restore law and
order in Ukraine.
Conclusions
There is a certain Faux-Naif posture in the reporting. Who in their
right mind would have expected Putin to roll over?
Russia's Black Sea naval fleet is headquartered in Sevastopol
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2a/Sevastopol_panorama.JPG/1200px-Sevastopol_panorama.JPG
Ukraine is also a breadbasket, a natural gas chokepoint, and a nation
of 45 million people in a pivotal spot north of the Black Sea. Ukraine
matters--to Russia, Europe, the U.S., and even China.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-27/the-new-great-game-why-ukraine-matters-to-so-many-other-nations#r=most%20popular
Russia, which straddles Europe and Asia, has sought a role in the rest
of Europe since the reign of Peter the Great in the early 18th
century. An alliance with Ukraine preserves that. "Without Ukraine,
Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire," the American political
scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in 1998. Russian President
Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to join his Eurasian Union trade bloc,
not the European Union. Russia's Black Sea naval fleet is
headquartered in Sevastopol, a formerly Russian city that now belongs
to Ukraine. Last year Russia's state-controlled Gazprom (OGZPY) sold
about 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe--a quarter of
European demand--and half of that traveled through a maze of Ukrainian
pipelines. Those pipelines also supply Ukrainian factories that
produce steel, petrochemicals, and other industrial goods for sale to
Mother Russia. "Ukraine is probably more integrated than any other
former Soviet republic with the Russian economy," says Edward Chow, a
senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington.
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Security council members attend a meeting on the crisis in Ukraine at the U.N. headquarters in New York Shannon Stapleton/Reuters Law & Politics |
Does Thailand Want to Be the Next Ukraine? 1 MAR 2, 2014 6:00 PM ET By
Pankaj Mishra
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-02/does-thailand-want-to-be-the-next-ukraine
The specter of secession suddenly haunts Ukraine and Thailand, two
countries where demonstrators have uncompromisingly battled corrupt or
unresponsive rulers. Militant protests have set off chain reactions
that may result in the fracturing of national territories and the
creation of new states in what are now eastern Ukraine and northeast
Thailand.
Elsewhere, in India as well as in Egypt, anarchic forms of politics
also seem to be prevailing. Apparently, all political institutions and
processes must now bow to the will of "the people," a category that
seems more spacious than ever as previously impassive masses enter
political life.
Arvind Kejriwal, the leader of India's Aam Aadmi ("Common Man") Party,
who reigned for a tumultuous few weeks as Delhi's chief minister,
clarifies the demands of today's freshly awakened people in his book
"Swaraj" ("Self-Rule"):
It is now obvious that we have no control over the entire system. We
cannot do anything against government employees. We have no say in
government policies. There is no participation in lawmaking, little
control over the Parliament. ... Our natural resources such as water,
forest and land are being thoughtlessly sold off. We have no control
over that either. Is this democracy? Is democracy all about casting
your vote once in five years and then letting these parties and their
leaders rule the roost? ... The people want a direct participation in
power. The people shall take decisions, and politicians and officials
will have to implement them.
Kejriwal echoes what many people, disempowered by their elected
representatives, feel. But are such forms of direct democracy
sustainable? Can power be diffused so readily? And is the state strong
enough to survive such an explosion of popular will?
Iran may not seem the best vantage point to observe the convulsions in
Ukraine and Thailand. But traveling through the country last week, I
often thought of its constitutional revolution in 1906 -- one whose
political legacy exceeds that of the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and
offers more instructive lessons than any European revolution in why
democratic upsurges often produce mayhem, followed in short order by
tyranny.
The effort, led by Iranian intellectuals and activists, to check a
centralized, arbitrary and inept monarchy was one of the very first
political movements of its kind anywhere in Asia. It succeeded in
creating a constitutional framework -- a principle of republicanism
and a vocabulary of civil society and democratic rights that remain
relevant in Iran to this day.
But no working government emerged, and factional fighting doomed the
revolution as much as the geopolitical rivalries of Britain, Russia
and the Ottoman Empire. After much chaos, the proverbial "strongman"
-- inevitably, a soldier on horseback -- emerged to reimpose order,
and the sovereignty of the people was sacrificed to an even more
centralized and powerful state.
In the last century, this script has grown oppressively familiar in
countries where democratic assertion precedes nation building. It
played out more recently in Egypt, where the country's only strong
institution -- the military -- deposed an elected government,
terminating a euphoric moment of mass democracy.
We may yet see some similar unintended effects of the people's will in
Ukraine, Thailand and other countries with weak institutions of
government. The example of Iran after 1906 -- in the long century of a
steadily empowered state -- clarifies why countries can lurch abruptly
from giddy freedom to despotism and take a long time to recover.
Decentralization -- or the delegation of power to the real agents of
change, the people -- can engender chaos if there are no sturdy
institutions of government already in place. The anarchy that results
can only encourage a longing for order, and a quick coalescing around
ideals of ethnic and religious identity -- one that authoritarian
figures posing as ardent revolutionaries and nationalists stand ready
to invoke. The state then grows larger and stronger at the expense of
the people, whose rights are expediently sacrificed to the interests
of the former.
Intense mass politicization caused in recent years by the venality and
incompetence of ruling elites is turning millions of people around the
world into rebels and secessionists. But they must be careful what
they wish for from their irreparably weakened states and governments.
History tells us that the long-term as well as immediate consequences
of many of their struggles will be violence and chaos, intensified
great power rivalries, the bloody redrawing of territories, and the
triumph of those who can stoke most efficiently the passions of blood
and soil.
RIOT POLICE STAND GUARD AT THE NATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION
OFFICE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF BANGKOK. PHOTOGRAPHER: PAULA
BRONSTEIN/GETTY IMAGES
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-02/does-thailand-want-to-be-the-next-ukraine
The selfie was retweeted almost 2 million times in three hours,
crushing the previous record set by President Barack Obama after his
re-election in November 2012. His "Four more years" post has been
retweeted more than 780,000 times.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/degeneres-s-oscars-selfie-crashes-twitter-with-record-retweets.html
Add Twitter Inc., Samsung Electronics Co. and Coca-Cola Co. to the
list of winners at last night's Oscars ceremony for their
product-placement coups.
Twitter, the microblogging site, was flooded with traffic after host
Ellen DeGeneres waded into the audience for a photo during the Los
Angeles event, telecast on Walt Disney Co.'s ABC.
She gathered up Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence, Kevin Spacey, Jared
Leto and Lupita Nyong'o, and handed her Samsung smartphone to Bradley
Cooper to take the shot. The impromptu selfie set the record for the
most-retweeted post ever and temporarily disrupted Twitter's service
for some users, bringing the microblogging site tons of publicity.
"We crashed and broke Twitter," DeGeneres said later from the stage.
"We made history."
Ellen's use of a Samsung phone for the group photo wasn't
happenstance. Samsung, based in Suwon, South Korea, was a sponsor of
the Oscars and used the show to introduce its "One Samsung" campaign
highlighting a range of products including the Galaxy Note Pro tablet,
the Galaxy S5 phone, the Gear 2 smartwatch and a curved
ultra-high-definition TV.
As part of its deal with ABC, Samsung sponsored 10 tweets featuring
celebrity selfies taken from the green room and sent by account of the
Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, according to Advertising
Age.
ABC last month reached a deal with Twitter's Amplify, which promotes
televised events in real time, becoming the last of the four major
networks to sign on, the publication said.
The academy, which organizes the awards, took credit for the Twitter outage.
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ Commodities |
U.K. gas for next-month delivery climbed as much as 10 percent, the
biggest gain since September 2011, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange
in London.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/u-k-gas-has-biggest-gain-since-oct-2011-amid-ukraine-tension.html
Dutch gas for April 2014 increased as much as 10 percent, the most
ever, while the German contract at the NetConnect hub rose as much as
8.1 percent, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg.
Natural gas supplies to Ukraine are not disrupted, Andrey Kruglov, the
chief financial officer of Russian pipeline gas export monopoly OAO
Gazprom, said today at an investor day.
"Everything is fine," he said in London.
Ukraine's daily imports of the fuel from Russia rose to 45 million
cubic meters as of March 1 compared with 20 million cubic meters a
year earlier and flows to Europe have not been disrupted, an official
at Ukrainian national pipeline manager Ukrtransgaz said today by phone
from Kiev, asking not to be identified in line with policy.
Gold 3 month Chart INO 1349.715
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Gold futures for April delivery rose 2.2 percent to settle at
$1,350.30 an ounce at 1:54 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices
touched $1,355, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 30.
Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 104.72 [highest since Sep 19th 2013]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
WTI for April delivery was at $104.70 a barrel in electronic trading
on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 22 cents, at 12:16 p.m.
Singapore time. The contract climbed $2.33 to $104.92 yesterday, the
highest close since Sept. 19. Prices have gained 6.4 percent this
year.
WTI advanced 5.2 percent last month as cold weather boosted demand for
heating fuels and crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, shrank with
the opening of a new pipeline. The storage hub, the largest in the
U.S., is the delivery point for New York-traded futures.
Oil's price surge yesterday was a "knee-jerk reaction" to escalating
tension between Ukraine and Russia and investor concerns of a supply
disruption are misplaced, according to Societe Generale SA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/wti-trades-near-five-month-high-as-fuel-supplies-seen-falling.html
"If Russia were to cut off crude oil exports through Ukraine, they
would be hurting themselves more than they would hurt Ukraine,"
Michael Wittner, the bank's head of oil market research in New York,
said in an e-mailed note. "If a Russian natural gas disruption to
Ukraine would have an impact on the oil markets, we believe that the
International Energy Agency would quickly coordinate a release of
strategic oil reserves by member countries."
After tumbling 23 percent in 2013, coffee rebounded 66 percent this
year amid the driest January in six decades in Brazil, the world's
biggest grower and exporter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/hedge-funds-most-bullish-on-gold-rally-in-14-months-commodities.html
Crops suffered "irreversible" damage, and losses will tip the global
market into a deficit in the year starting Oct. 1 in most countries,
according to Volcafe Ltd., the coffee unit of commodity trader ED&F
Man Holdings Ltd
Coffee 3 month Chart INO 193.45 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_KC.K14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Sea Urchin from Atelier Crenn. Photography: Atelier Crenn/Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/women-do-most-exciting-700-tasting-menus-in-america-as-men-rule.html
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Africa's outlook by the (poor) numbers Mozambique is Africa's eighth poorest nation says one index -- and its 12th richest says another. Africa |
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.27% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
First: just five Shoprite stores in Angola sold more cans of energy
drink Red Bull than in all of Shoprite's 382 stories in South Africa.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africanbusiness/2014/03/02/shoprite-cashes-in-on-underestimated-africa
The second equally alarming statistic is that those 19 Shoprite stores
in Angola sold more bottles of the ubiquitous sparkling wine JC Le
Roux than the entire South African business did.
It would be an exaggeration to say Shoprite's business at its 163
stores north of South Africa saved its bacon in the six months to
December -- but that remark would not be too inaccurate.
Sales north of the border climbed 28.1% (exclude the impact of the
plunging rand, and it was still 14.9%), and the return on investment
for those stores exceeded 45%.
When you consider that overall, Shoprite's first-half profit climbed
only 7.4% to R1.82bn, this shows just how muted trading was in South
African shops.
Outside South Africa, Shoprite plans to open 44 new stores by the
middle of next year. Its target: resource-rich nations such as
Nigeria, Angola and Zambia.
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.87675
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9617
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +15.94% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
7,859.29 -216.30 -2.68%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.26% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +12.88% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
An acquisition of SABMiller would give AB InBev more than $7 billion
of revenue in Africa with brands including Castle
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/ab-inbev-need-for-sabmiller-mega-deal-grows-real-m-a.html
IHS Raises $490 Million for Africa Towers as Goldman Buys
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/ihs-raises-490-million-for-africa-towers-as-goldman-buys.html
IHS Holding Ltd. (IHS), Africa's largest independent
telecommunications infrastructure company by number of towers managed,
said it raised $490 million in equity and debt from investors
including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to fund acquisitions and
investments.
IHS received $420 million in equity and $70 million in debt from
existing shareholders as well as Goldman Sachs, the IFC Global
Infrastructure Fund and African Infrastructure Investment Managers,
according to an e-mailed statement today. The Nigerian company has
raised more than $1.5 billion in capital over the last 12 months, it
said.
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CORPORATE EARNINGS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, NSE POISED HIGHER Kenyan Economy |
THE earnings season is upon us at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. For
a reason best known to the inner and subliminal workings of my mind, I
always imagine it to be a little like the Ngong races in my childhood.
I remember a time watching the pre-race Parade and this fellow saying:
''Damn fine filly!'' Occasionally I find myself out of an evening and
I want to exclaim:''Damn fine filly!'' but then I catch myself.
So a little like at the races, you cannot argue with the tape and the
earnings season is the tape. It gives us a fix on a company. I tend to
make an effort and attend as many earnings' releases as physically
possible.
About five years ago, I discovered the extraordinary Dr. Paul Ekman
who is a pioneer in the study of emotions and their relation to facial
expressions. Dr.Ekman has created a road map for reading faces and I
have found the study of faces as useful as the study of numbers. And
the point about reading faces is you need to be physically present.
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Diamond Trust Bank reports FY PAT 2013 +28.58% Earnings here share price is +22.395% in 2014 Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 4/-
Closing Price: 235.00
Total Shares Issued: 220,100,096
Market Capitalization: 51,723,522,560
EPS: 21.61
PE: 10.8745
Prominent Kenyan commercial bank
FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus through 31st December 2012
FY Loans and Advances Net to Customers 110.945439b versus 87.707243b +26.495%
FY Total Assets 166.520351b versus 135461412b
FY Total Interest Income 17.179061b versus 16.579014b
FY Total Interest Expenses 6.176423b versus 7.453923b
FY Net Interest income 11.002638b versus 9.125091b
Total Non-Interest Income 3.377754b versus 3.115254b
FY Total Operating Income 14.380392b versus 12.240345b
FY Total Operating Expenses 7.149353b versus 6.214595b +15.041%
FY Profit Before Tax 7.235003b versus 6.027899b +20.025%
FY Profit After Tax 5.230754b versus 4.067978b +28.58%
FY Earnings Per Share 21.61 versus 17.44 +23.91%
FY Dividend 2.10 versus 1.90 +10.526%
Conclusions
Its a very well managed Bank, has a regional Footprint and a lower
base Effect. At 235.00 and +22.395% in 2014, it looks fairly priced.
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Pan Africa Insurance Company Ltd reports FY 2013 PAT +108.32% Earnings here share price +55.55% in 2014 Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 140.00
Total Shares Issued: 96000000.00
Market Capitalization: 13,440,000,000
EPS: 13.05
PE: 10.7279
First listed insurance company on the NSE.
FY through 31st December 2013 versus 31st December 2012
FY Gross written premium 5.324099b versus 5.440654b -2.14%
FY Net written premium 5.101827b versus 5.125634b
FY Investment Income 1.534084b versus 1.244574b
Fair Value Gains 1.168709b versus 0.879863b +32.82%
Other Operating Income 685.054m versus 594.404m
FY Other Revenue 3.440527b versus 2.795207b +23.0866%
Total Income 8.542354b versus 7.920841b
FY Net Claims and Policy Holder Benefits [5.274338b] versus [5.521395b]
FY Total benefits claims and other expenses [7.027998b] versus [7.087865b]
FY Profit Before Tax 1.516444b versus 834.646m +81.687%
FY Profit after Tax 1.250432b versus 600.24m +108.32%
FY EPS 13.05 versus 6.25 +108.8%
Dividend 4.5 versus 3.00 +50%
Conclusions
Predictably strong Results which were anticipated in a parabolic
+55.55% Price Rally in 2014. That Rally through 140.00 might have now
run its course.
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.347% to close at 140.36.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 28.31 points to close at 4906.70
Equity Turnover was 445.411m.
Pan Africa retreated 18.571% after releasing its FY 2013 Earnings. Pan
Africa had rallied +55.55% through this morning in 2014 and evidently
simply all of the news was in the Price.
Diamond Trust Bank reported FY 2013 Earnings and a +20.025%
acceleration in FY Profit Before Tax.
Mumias Sugar's blistering +35.59% since 19th February came to a
screeching Halt and reversed 7.5% today.
There were 15 winners and 27 losers today.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Eaagads rebounded 5.88% to close at 27.00. Eaagads is the only listed
Coffee Pure Play. Coffee prices are +66% in 2014 and Eaagads is
+13.684% in 2014.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom closed unchanged at 11.70 and was trading at session highs
of 11.80 +0.85% at the Closing Bell. Safaricom traded 5.002m shares
and Buy Side Demand outweighs Sell Side Supply by a Ratio of 60 versus
26 signalling the Path of Least Resistance remains higher.
Kenya Airways firmed 0.843% to close at 11.95 and traded 395,200
shares. Its oversold.
Longhorn Kenya traded 200 shares at 14.50 +7.41%. Longhorn kenya is
+7.407% in 2014.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Diamond Trust Bank reported FY Earnings before the Opening Bell. DTB
reported a +20.025% acceleration in FY Profit Before Tax, a +23.91%
Acceleration in FY Earnings Per Share to 21.61. Diamond Trust is
hoarding cash and increased The Dividend Pay Out +10.526% to 2.10 a
share a Pay Out Ratio of 9.717%. Diamond Trust had rallied +22.395%
through this morning but met some long overdue Profit Taking today and
eased 0.425% to close at 234.00 and was trading at session lows of
228.00 -2.98% at the Finale. DTB is a well organised and regional Bank
under the leadership of Nasim Devji and shares are typically well held
although we saw a very large and outsize Position change hands in the
Run up to the FY Earnings Release.
Pan Africa Insurance reported FY 2013 Earnings overnight where FY
Profit Before Tax accelerated +81.687% to 1.516444b, FY Profit after
Tax accelerated +108.32% to 1.250432b, FY EPS expanded +108.8% to
13.05 and the Dividend was hiked +50%. These Results were telegraphed
and Pan Africa had rallied +55.55% in 2014 through this morning. Pan
Africa met some aggressive Profit Taking and retreated 18.571% to
close at 114.00 and traded shares at a Session low of 110.00. All the
Good News was baked into the Price.
COOP Bank eased 0.27% to close at 18.80 and was the most actively
traded banking share with 2.107m shares worth 39.613m traded. COOP
Bank is +5.915% in 2014 and trades on a Trailing PE of 10.2173 ahead
of its FY Earnings Release.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 44.00 and traded 879,400
shares. Kenya Commercial Bank has eased 6.87% in 2014 and trades on a
PE Ratio of 9.129 after releasing FY 2013 where Profit after Tax
accelerated +17.517%.
CIC Insurance followed on yesterdays 5.97% bounce with a further
0.704% gain to close at 7.15 and traded 6.248m shares. CIC Insurance
is +20.168% in 2014.
BRITAM E.A eased 0.27% to close at 18.15 and traded 1.224m shares.
BRITAM EA is +19.801% in 2014.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL firmed +0.38% to close at 263.00 and was the most actively traded
share at the Securities Exchange and traded 481,200 shares worth
127.031. EABL has retreated 9.31% in 2014 but has rebounded +20.09%
and with some Violence since setting a 52 week Closing Low of 219.00
on the 19th of February. Weak longs were flushed out in the aftermath
of the H1 Earnings Release and the price is headed directionally
higher.
Mumias Sugar had rallied +35.59% since 19th February and since
releasing its First Half Earnings through this morning and encountered
some determined Profit taking today. Mumias Sugar retreated 7.5% to
close at 3.70 and was trading at 3.60 -10.00% and its Daily Limit at
the Finish. There were 5x more Sellers than the entire volume of
1.322m shares traded today.
Crown Berger rallied +6.49% to close at 82.00 on light trading. Crown
Berger is +9.333% in 2014.
Eveready firmed +4.48% to close at 3.50 and traded 140,400 shares.
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