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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 06th of March 2014

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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17-FEB-2014 :: STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE A Presentation I made to @Oracle

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"If you reveal everything, bare every feeling, ask for understanding,
you lose something crucial to your sense of yourself. You need to know
things that others don't know. It's what no one knows about you that
allows you to know yourself."
-- Don DeLillo, Point Omega

The truth is that DeLillo is wired into contemporary America from the
ground up, spookily attuned to the weird vibrations of popular culture
and the buzz of everyday, ordinary conversations on bus and subway.

DeLillo has devoted his writing to the shadow side of American life,
painting a dysfunctional freaks' gallery of the wrecked (David Bell in
Americana), the sick (Bill Gray in Mao II), the mad (Lee Harvey Oswald
in Libra) and the suicidal (Eric Packer in Cosmopolis). In White
Noise, the protagonist, Jack, who teaches Hitler studies, riffs
hilariously on death and mass murder. It is said that DeLillo used to
keep two files on his writing table, labelled "Art" and "Terror". In
Mao II, he writes: "I used to think it was possible for an artist to
alter the inner life of the culture. Now bomb-makers and gunmen have
taken that territory." On some readings, his characters occupy this
no-man's-land. His vision has been described as "paranoid" in the
sense that it connects everything about his society.

In the process of exploring America, DeLillo has become credited with
extraordinary powers of literary clairvoyance. The war on terror is
said to be foreshadowed in Mao II. The planes that flew into the Twin
Towers are possibly alluded to on the cover of Underworld. Parts of
White Noise are echoed in the anthrax scare of 2001, and so on.

More of a novella, or a long short story, Point Omega is a fragment of
classic DeLillo, apparently rooted in time and place: 2006, late
summer, early fall. This was when DeLillo went to New York's Museum of
Modern Art (Moma) to see Douglas Gordon's installation 24 Hour Psycho,
a video work that slows down every frame of Hitchcock's thriller into
a 24-hour cycle. Immediately, it hooked the writer's imagination.
"Time and death," he remarks with some satisfaction. "It's the
ultimate vision of an artist at the end of everything. It's just
what's there. It was not something I planned to do."

Point Omega by Don Delillo

"The true life is not reducible to words spoken or written, not by
anyone, ever."
-- Don DeLillo, Point Omega

"It's all embedded, the hours and minutes, words and numbers
everywhere, he said, train stations, bus routes, taxi meters,
surveillance cameras. It's all about time, dimwit time, inferior time,
people checking watches and other devices, other reminders. This is
time draining out of our lives. Cities were built to measure time, to
remove time from nature. There's an endless counting down, he said.
When you strip away all the surfaces, when you see into it, what's
left is terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure.
The epic poem, the bedtime story."
-- Don DeLillo, Point Omega

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Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recalled their ambassadors "to protect security and stability," the countries said in a joint statement on the website of the official Saudi Press Agency.
Law & Politics

The decision follows a Gulf foreign ministers meeting in Riyadh
yesterday, which failed to convince Qatar to implement an accord that
stops "support for anyone who threatens the security and stability of
GCC countries," they said in the statement.

Gulf countries have been critical of Qatar's support for the Muslim
Brotherhood. Last month, the U.A.E. summoned Qatar's ambassador and
issued a letter of protest in response to criticism by Doha-based
cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has close ties with Qatari royals and
has expressed support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

"This has to deal with Qatar's continued support for the Muslim
Brotherhood," Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Institute
for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, said in a phone
interview. "Members and supporters of the Islamic group are
criticizing GCC countries from Doha."

 Qatar's benchmark QE Index for stocks tumbled 2.3 percent as of 12:24
p.m. in Doha. Dubai's DFM General Index fell as much as 0.9 percent
before trimming losses to 0.1 percent.


The Muslim Brotherhood is a Fault Line and Qatar is falling on the
wrong side of the Line.

And My Friend @PeterGreste is an Innocent in this Muslim
Brotherhood/@AjeLive/ Qatar versus the Rest of the GCC, Kuwait, Saudi
Arabia and Egypt Fault line.

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Gunfire erupted at a major military base in the South Sudanese capital Juba on Wednesday after troops mutinied over unpaid salaries, an indication of worsening economic strife as the world's youngest nation struggles to contain a nearly three-month-old
Law & Politics

The fighting appeared to subside after more than two hours. But the
U.S. embassy in Juba advised residents to stay indoors. Witnesses said
that thick smoke could be seen billowing over the base, known as
Geida, located near Juba airport.

"We urge everyone to stay safe and remain indoors. We will continue to
monitor the situation and provide updates," the embassy said in a

The clashes highlight the fragile security situation in Juba. In
December, the South Sudanese capital was the scene of intense fighting
between troops loyal to President Salva Kiir and those of his former
deputy, Riek Machar, with more than 1,000 people killed.

"The fighting was sparked by a quarrel between soldiers over salaries.
This has now been contained," Foreign Minister Barnaba Benjamin told
The Wall Street Journal.

Witnesses said hundreds of heavily armed troops mounted roadblocks
around the city on Wednesday, heightening tensions.

Mr. Benjamin said that more than a dozen troops were arrested.

An aid official in Juba said that at least seven troops were killed in
the clashes, which also left more than a dozen injured. There was no
immediate reaction from the South Sudan military.

The Ugandan army reinforced positions near the airport.

"The airport is functioning normally; we have heightened our
vigilance" said Major Robert Ngabirano, Uganda's deputy army
spokesman. Uganda has thousands of troops supporting the government
army against the rebels.

Geida is same base where troops loyal to Messrs. Kiir and Machar first
clashed in December, sparking the current conflict. A rebel
representative in Ethiopia claimed that mutineers at the base have
pledged their allegiance to Machar, signaling worsening divisions
within the military


South Sudan's oil cutoff: brilliant negotiating, or suicide? January 30, 2012


I have to surmise that the US is underwriting Salva's overdraft, what
with all these demobilized soldiers roaming around Juba, it would be
suicide to have them unpaid for any length of time.

What he left the door open for is - oh cosmic irony of ironies - an
American invention/intervention (and that, predictably, was
undetectable by Western corporate media); UN's R2P - "responsibility
to protect" -


What he left the door open for is - oh cosmic irony of ironies - an
American invention/intervention (and that, predictably, was
undetectable by Western corporate media); the UN's R2P -
"responsibility to protect" - in case the Western-aligned fascists and
neo-nazis in Ukraine threaten Russians or Russian-speaking civilians
with armed conflict. Samantha Power should be proud of herself.

The endgame is all but written; Moscow controls an autonomous Crimea
for free, and the US/EU "control"  a back of beyond western Ukraine
wasteland "managed" by a bunch of Western puppets and oligarchs, with
a smatter of neo-nazis.

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The general strategy of provoking separatism in order to overthrow competing circles of influence.
Law & Politics

The US and UK support Chechen moves for independence based on the
vision of a "liberated region of the Caspian Sea," which would turn
over its vast energy resources to "the global marketplace." This
vision has been thwarted by Putin's devastating grip on Chechnya, as
well as Moscow's involvement on behalf of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
during the Russia-Georgia War of 2008. The outcome of the Kremlin's
maneuvers has secured Russia's energy corridor from Central Asia into
Europe through Ukraine.

Syria under Assad seeks to become a "four seas" hub, uniting the
Caspian, Black Sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean. Currently, Russia
dominates the Caspian Sea, and holds the weight of power in the Black
Sea after grabbing the Crimea. With Assad's Syria in place, the
Kremlin has a strong foothold in the Mediterranean as well.

Enormous enclosures do not come without a price. The growing global
tumult is a symptom of the global land grab--the expropriation of land
and resources by competing international powers to suit the needs of a
rapidly expanding global consumer culture. As China and Russia broaden
the belt around Asia, the impotence of the US's strategy of aiding
fascists, Islamists, and separatists in attempts to "liberate" natural
resources and infrastructure becomes apparent. This is why Russia
crossed an important Rubicon in the Crimea: not only have they proved
that they aren't bluffing in Syria, but they have exposed proxy wars
by engaging in open conflict, thus heightening the visibility of the
interconnected and ongoing game of global domination.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the western-backed
government in Kiev no longer rules over Crimea, saying control has
shifted to armed "self-defense" groups


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia against violating
"very clear legal obligations" to uphold Ukraine's unity.

The West is blinking in disbelief - Vladimir Putin just invaded Ukraine.


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3724 I do not any fireworks from the ECB today
Dollar Index 80.17 U.S. dollar index .DXY climbed to its highest for
the week at 80.272.
Japan Yen 102.73 The yen weakened 0.4 percent to 102.73 per dollar as
of 1:54 p.m. in Tokyo after touching 102.76, the weakest since Feb. 21
Swiss Franc 0.8888
Pound 1.6712 BUY SIGNAL given on 12-AUG-2013 :: how does an investor
play this recovery. I think you need to be net long sterling
Aussie 0.9016 Aussie climbed 0.3 percent to 90.12 U.S. cents in its
longest winning streak this year and extending its gain this week to 1
Exports from the South Pacific nation exceeded imports by A$1.43
billion ($1.3 billion) in January, the most since August 2011,
compared with the A$100 million surplus forecast by economists, a
Bureau of Statistics report showed. Retail sales increased 1.2
India Rupee 61.42
South Korea Won 1065.15
Brazil Real 2.3204
Egypt Pound 6.9613
South Africa Rand 10.6926

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.17


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3724


Euro-area gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent in the three months
through December from the third quarter, the European Union's
statistics office said yesterday. That was in line with Eurostat's
initial estimate published last month.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.73


Sterling 3 Month Chart INO 1.67077


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12-AUG-2013 ::The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net long sterling
International Trade

The CHART OF THE DAY compares Tencent's 1,246 percent advance in
Hong Kong trading since March 2009 against the rallies in Microsoft
Corp. (MSFT), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) and Intel Corp. (INTC) before
the stocks peaked about 14 years ago.


The lower panel shows Tencent shares trade 10 percent higher than the
average 12-month price target of 27 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

Hiroshi Mikitani, chief executive officer of the Japanese e-commerce
company Rakuten Inc. (4755), aims to expand to 2 billion users with
his acquisition of messaging service Viber Media Inc.


Growth for Viber's free messaging and Internet calling app is already
accelerating. It's adding 600,000 users daily, up by about 50,000 from
Feb. 14 when the deal was announced, and that can rise to a million a
day, Mikitani said in an interview. Viber had about 300 million users
at the time of the deal.

Mikitani, 48, is plowing cash into technologies such as mobile
applications and online video as he seeks to expand Rakuten beyond its
core business as an online marketplace. The strategy has led to rising
competition with companies such as SoftBank Corp. (9984), Amazon.com
Inc. and Facebook Inc. (FB), which agreed to pay $19 billion for the
messaging service WhatsApp just five days after Rakuten unveiled its

"The goal is to reach 1 billion, 2 billion users, not to stop yet,"
Mikitani said in Tokyo yesterday. "We are planning to increase to 1
million additional users every day. That means 365 million a year,
maybe in two or three more years, we can get there."

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 3 month Chart INO 1336.985 [Expensive]


Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.10


WTI for April delivery dropped as much as 59 cents to $100.86 a barrel
in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at
$101.12 at 12:50 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost $1.88 to
$101.45 yesterday, the lowest settlement since Feb. 14.

WTI has slid 1.4 percent this week, poised for the first decline in
eight weeks, amid speculation tension is easing between Ukraine and
Russia and as U.S. crude supplies climbed to the highest level since


The US Cold Snap and Ukraine squeezed the Price. Equilibrium Price is
< $90.00 in my opinion.

Coffee Tops $2 in Surge to Two-Year High on Brazil Drought Woes


Futures for arabica beans, favored by specialty companies such as
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), have surged 83 percent this year, the most
among the 24 raw materials tracked by the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot
Index. Last year, coffee tumbled 23 percent in the third straight
annual loss, the longest slump since 1993, amid Brazil's bumper crops.

"The limited rains in Brazil have made the size of this year's crop a
moving target," Robbert Van Batenburg, a director of market strategy
at Newedge Group SA in New York, said in a telephone interview. "It's
not easy to just turn on the switch and start producing more."

Arabica coffee for May delivery jumped 9.1 percent to settle at $2.024
a pound yesterday on ICE Futures U.S. The price reached $2.041, the
highest for a most-active contract since March 2012.

The arabica premium to robusta beans, used mainly in instant coffee,
has more than tripled this year to $1.0873 a pound, the highest in two

Robusta futures for May delivery slid 0.6 percent to $2,065 a metric
ton (93.67 cents a pound) on London's NYSE Liffe. The price has
climbed 23 percent this year.

Raw-sugar futures for May delivery gained 2.8 percent to close at
18.23 cents a pound on ICE. Earlier, the price reached 18.28 cents,
the highest since Nov. 6. Brazil is the top producer and exporter.

"The rain has the same implication for sugar," James Cordier, the
founder of OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida, said in a telephone
interview. "But there's a cap on sugar prices because there's other
producers in the world. There isn't a cap on the price of coffee
because Brazil produces such a large percentage."

Brazil accounts for 37 percent of global coffee output, including 46
percent of arabica, with the latest share of sugar at 22 percent, USDA
data show.

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Niger has extradited Muammar Gaddafi's son Saadi, who just arrived in Tripoli, the Libyan government said on Thursday.

Niger has extradited Muammar Gaddafi's son Saadi, who just arrived in
Tripoli, the Libyan government said on Thursday.

Libya had been seeking the extradition of Saadi, who had fled to the
southern neighbor country after the toppling of Gaddafi in a
NATO-backed uprising in 2011.

"The Libyan government received today Saadi Gaddafi and he arrived in
Tripoli," the cabinet of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said in a

Saadi Gaddafi


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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan's prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that 'The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village' has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

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Muammar Gaddafi The End

Sic transit gloria mundi is a Latin phrase that means "Thus passes the
glory of the world." It has been interpreted as "Worldly things are
fleeting." It is possibly an adaptation of a phrase in Thomas à
Kempis's 1418 work The Imitation of Christ: "O quam cito transit
gloria mundi" ("How quickly the glory of the world passes

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"Four members of the border police died and five were wounded as a result of an attack by armed men from Renamo on Sunday morning in the district of Gorongosa," independent daily, O Pais said.

The ambush took place in the Mussicadzi district, 60km from the
Gorongosa mountains in central, Sofala province, said the paper.

Renamo's leader, Afonso Dhlakama is believed to be holed up in those mountains.

Gorongosa mountains


Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama outside his hut on April 10, 2013 in
Gorongosa's mountains @AFP


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.09% 2014


Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.68610


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9587


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +18.39% 2014 [Africa's Best in 2014]


8,025.28 +91.55 +1.15%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.06% 2014


Nigerian president picks ex-general as defense minister


Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan appointed an experienced former
army general from the Muslim north as his defense minister on
Wednesday, as he looks to combat an increasingly bloody Islamist
insurgency there.

Jonathan is struggling to cope with Islamist sect Boko Haram, which
has killed thousands in a four-year insurgency aimed at carving an
Islamic state out of a country of 170 million people, split between
Christians and Muslims.

Boko Haram fighters have been aggressively targeting vulnerable
civilian populations in the northeast in recent months and are
over-running the army there.

Aliyu Gusau, who has a background in military intelligence, will be
expected to play a key role in tempering Boko Haram's insurgency,
having previously been national security adviser to both Jonathan and
former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Africa's top oil exporter and the continent's second-largest economy
is growing as an investment destination but persistent periods of
instability often tarnish its reputation.

Jonathan handed out portfolios to 10 other ministers on Wednesday,
filling vacancies mostly created after he fired 11 ministers last
September, a move analysts said was aimed at making room for figures
who would be more adept at fighting what will be closely contested
elections next year.

The defense portfolio had been vacant since previous incumbent Haliru
Bello was removed by Jonathan in June 2012 after a rapid deterioration
in the security situation as Boko Haram stepped up attacks.

New ministers appointed on Wednesday included career diplomat Aminu
Wali as foreign affairs minister. Wali is a former representative to
the United Nations and most recently was Nigeria's ambassador to
China, a country with increasing ties to West Africa.

Eight of the new ministerial appointees are from the mostly Muslim
north, where southern Christian Jonathan will need plenty of allies to
rally support if, as expected, he runs in a presidential election next

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +12.84% 2014


According to 2013 figures, each year, East African countries import
goods from Turkey worth $813 million, while the region's annual export
volume to Turkey reached $160 million.


Turkish Airlines is currently conducting flights to 35 destinations in
25 African countries.

"The biggest Turkish investment in East Africa is in Ethiopia, about a
rail construction project worth $1.7 billion, so there is not such a
big-scale investment that Turkey aligns its foreign policy strategies
for the region," Ozturk said.

Foreign trade volume with Kenya increased from $10.6 million in 2000,
to $145 million in 2013, with exports of gasoline and steel accounting
for much of the increase.

"The passenger and cargo transport between Istanbul and [Kenyan cities
of] Nairobi and Mombasa also brought transport facilities between the
two countries, and their positive impacts over the economic and trade
relations have been observed," Bozatli said.

Congo Halts Mining Expansion Projects Amid Electricity Shortage


The Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa's biggest copper producer,
told miners to halt any project expansion requiring more power amid a
shortage that will take years to resolve, according to government

The country will institute an electricity-rationing program for miners
and its state-owned power company must stop signing new contracts,
Congolese Prime Minister Augustin Matata Ponyo said in a January
letter to the ministers of mines and energy.

"I equally deem it necessary that mining clients postpone immediately
and until further notice all expansion projects requiring supplemental
energy," Matata said in the letter, which was given to Bloomberg News
by a member of the Federation des Entreprises du Congo, the Congolese
business group, and verified by the government.

Glencore Xstrata Plc (GLEN)'s Mutanda and Katanga Mining projects and
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)'s Tenke Fungurume mine are
Congo's top copper producers. Katanga Mining is scheduled to expand
production to almost 300,000 tons by the end of the year, according to
statements and filings on Glencore and Katanga Mining's websites.
Tenke plans to add a second sulfuric acid plant by 2016, Tenke
Fungurume Mining Ltd. said in a January press release.

Both Mutanda and Katanga Mining will have more than enough energy to
meet their needs for 2014 under the current power supply according to
a Nov 2013 power project report on Glencore's website. Eleven percent
of Mutanda's 2013 energy came from generators, the report says.
Glencore spokesman Charles Watenphul declined to comment further

Mining contributes approximately 80 percent of Congo's annual export
revenue and accounts for about 30 percent of gross domestic product,
the letter says. Copper production topped 900,000 metric tons in 2013,
a record for the central African nation, according to the
International Monetary Fund. CRU Group ranked Congo the biggest
producer in Africa and the world's sixth-largest last year.

Congo can provide only about half of the 900 megawatts demanded by
miners in the province of Katanga, where the country's copper is
primarily located, Matata said. The nation can import about 100
megawatts from the state-owned Zambia Electricity Supply Corp. and
another 50 megawatts from Lusaka, Zambia-based Copperbelt Energy Corp.
to help make up the difference, according to the letter.

"Without this input, no significant increase in existing production
nor development of new operations" is feasible, Matata said. New
energy projects will not come on line "for several years," he said.

After mediating discussions between FEC's Chamber of Mines and the
state-owned Societe Nationale de l'Electricite, the government decided
to ration its 461.7 megawatts of available power among all of
Katanga's miners, according to the letter.

The rationing of power doesn't affect production at Jinchuan's Ruashi
mine as the company has had self-generating power capacity since last
year, Chief Financial Officer Tak Chuen Wong said. The company will
explore other sources of power, he said.

Freeport's spokesman couldn't immediately comment.

Congo's parliament has passed a law liberalizing the electricity
industry that will allow for private investment in new projects and
which is awaiting President Joseph Kabila's signature.

"I want more companies to come to Katanga to invest in energy in the
province," Governor Moise Katumbi said by phone yesterday. "There are
several sites where we can build hydro plants" to power future
investment in the copper industry.

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The two offers means investors must consider whether they should take REAT's lower bid of Sh70 and hang on to the promise of earning additional Sh15 in the future or run with the Kirubi-backed Sh75-a-share deal.
Kenyan Economy

Rea Vipingo share price data [Frozen]


Kenya Readies Riot Police as Strike Causes Gridlock in Nairobi


Kenya may deploy riot police to remove public-transport drivers who
have blocked roads in the capital, Nairobi, in a protest over
increased parking fees, the city's traffic chief said.

Operators of buses, commuter vans, known as matatus, and taxi-cab
drivers stopped traffic on some of Nairobi's busiest streets including
Thika highway, Jogoo Road and the central business district since
early morning as motorists headed to work.

"The strikes have reached a level that we are getting concerned and
the likelihood is that we're going to send in riot police because they
are now blocking major intersections," Traffic Commandant Edward
Mwamburi said in a phone interview. "Everyone should take caution."

The increased parking fees will help finance road improvements on a
network built in the 1970s for a population less than a-third of
Nairobi's current 3.1 million people, Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero
said on Feb. 12. The number of vehicles in the city has more than
doubled since 2012 to 700,000 and that growth hasn't been matched by
"infrastructure and traffic management" expansion, Kidero said.

Public-transport drivers "are saying that increased fees in the city
are unaffordable," Dickson Mbugua, national chairman of the Matatu
Welfare Association, said by phone.

Kenyan Police Inspector-General David Kimaiyo ordered the arrest of
drivers taking part in the blockades and warned that vehicles
obstructing the traffic would be stripped of their number plates and
towed away, according to posts on his Twitter account.

"This heinous act will not be tolerated," Kimaiyo said. "The motorist
grievances can be heard without blocking or obstructing the road to
other road users."

The Nairobi government more than doubled a licensing fee for
public-service vehicles to as much as 8,000 shillings ($92) a month
for buses, said Mbugua. While the Nairobi Metropolitan Union and the
government negotiated an agreement this week to lower the charges by
as much as 65 percent, it hasn't been implemented, angering
public-vehicle owners, Mbugua said. The price increment is also being
challenged in court, he said.

Kidero said he met public-transport officials today and told them the
strike must stop for talks to resume, according to a statement on his
Twitter account.

The demonstration was organized by an informal group of protesters and
hasn't been endorsed by the association, Mbugua said. Matatus and city
buses in Nairobi are privately owned.

A strike by matatu operators in November 2012 over tougher penalties
for traffic offenses led to hours-long traffic jams in the city.
Nairobi accounts for about 60 percent of Kenya's $41 billion annual
gross domestic product.

read more

Nairobi ousts Lagos as Africa's most expensive capital
Kenyan Economy

London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says in a new listing
of the world's most expensive places to live in that rapid increase in
consumer good prices linked to new taxation measures propelled the
Kenyan capital to the top spot on the continent, ahead of Côte
d'Ivoire's Abidjan.

read more

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.597
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +2.54% 2014


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.49% 2014


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


Africa's fourth-largest lake could drop by 20 metres, causing an
ecological and human disaster to rival the shrinking of the Aral Sea
in central Asia, if Ethiopia goes ahead with massive irrigation
projects linked to a giant dam, according to a university paper.


Africa's fourth-largest lake could drop by 20 metres, causing an
ecological and human disaster to rival the shrinking of the Aral Sea
in central Asia, if Ethiopia goes ahead with massive irrigation
projects linked to a giant dam, according to a university paper.

Lake Turkana, located almost entirely in Kenya but fed by the river
Omo, which rises in Ethiopia, will be severely impacted by the 243
metre-high Gibe III dam, which is due to be completed this year, says
the study, published by the University of Oxford's African Studies
Centre. It suggests water levels could drop by half, devastating the
lake's fisheries and affecting the livelihoods of 170,000

"Ultimately, the 6,400 sq km lake could reduce to two small lakes. The
picture that emerges from these predictions bears a striking
resemblance to the recent disastrous history of the Aral Sea, which
was once the world's fourth-largest inland water body," said Sean
Avery, a Nairobi-based hydrologist who studied the impact of the dam
project for the African Development Bank.

Berhanu Kebede, Ethiopian ambassador in London, strongly refuted the
University of Oxford study. "The dam will store additional water to
what is currently present in the system - water that hitherto would
have been wasted - and will permit the rational management of this
water in the basin," he said.

"Lake Turkana will not lose a considerable amount of water, as
claimed, and Kenya will benefit from low-cost electricity to its
growing economy, to the tune of 400 megawatts, in the not-too-distant

A fisherman cleans his catch in Lake Turkana. A study warns the
Gibe III dam project could devastate the lake's fisheries. Photograph:
Siegfried Modola/Reuters


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share rebounded 0.585% to close at 140.94.
The Big Caps were heavily traded and to the Upside. Safaricom
+0.8547%, Kenya Commercial Bank +1.7045% and EABL +0.38% traded heavy
volume and after 2 months where Foreign Investors have snapped a 24
Month Trend of Accumulation, by trimming their positions, I think that
2 month Trend Change might be now complete.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 6.32 points to close at 4896.40
Equity Turnover was brisk at 892.224m.
There were 22 Winners and 20 Losers.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Of course the Big News in the Agricultural Sector has been the 2
competing offers for Rea Vipingo. The Robinows have offered 70
shillings in the Hand and 15 shillings of further Upside if they carve
out some choice Real Estate and are able to bag a Real Estate Gain,
which is a Racing Certainty. Mr. Chris Kirubi who has himself been
surfing a Triple Digit Percentage Gain in his Centum Stock in 2013 has
offered 75/= in the hand for the same shares. The Interesting point to
note is that 75 shillings a share is 172% higher than the last price
Rea Vipingo traded at before it was frozen. That Discount applies to
each and every Listed Agricultural Company. Of course, some are at
even more egregious discounts such as limuru Tea where the Estate sits
on the outskirts of Nairobi and choice real estate country.

Eaagads finally woke up to the Fact Coffee Futures have posted a
simply blistering Start to the Year with Arabica +83% this year and
Robusta is +23%. Crops have been scorched in Brazil. Eaagads is the
only Coffee Pure Play at the Securities Exchange and rallied +8.18% to
close at 29.75. Eaagads is +25.26% and like coffee [which is at a 2
Year High] has further to go.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed 0.8547% to close at 11.80 and on lumpy volume of
27.446m shares worth 323.767m. Safaricom is +8.755% in 2014 and sits
5.22% below its Lifetime Closing High of 12.45 from the the 24th
January this year. That 24th January High will come under threat again
and I expect levels of 13.50 at the time of the Full Year Earnings
Release. The Data Curve has turned parabolic across SSA and Kenya
remains an Outlier in the Data and Digital World in Africa. I expect
Full Year Data to exceed consensus Estimates by a Mile.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank tracked +1.7045% higher to close at 44.75 and
was trading at 45.50 +3.41% session highs at the Finish Line. Kenya
Commercial Bank traded 2.964m shares worth 133.225m. Kenya Commercial
reported a +17.517% Full Year Profit after Tax Acceleration.
Equity Bank rebounded +3.91% to close at 33.25 and traded 534,700 shares.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 18.65 and traded 2.873m shares worth 53.721m.

Pan Africa Insurance rebounded 5.825% to close at 109.00 and was
trading at 112.00 +8.74% for most of the session. Pan Africa traded
54,800 shares. Pan Africa in a classic example of buying the Rumour
rallied +55.55% from the start of the Year through the 3rd of March
and during that relentless Rally set a Sequence of Life time Highs.
Subsequently, we had a ''Sell the Fact'' where Pan Africa slumped
26.95% over 3 sessions. Evidently, it was considered overcooked to the
Downside. Pan Africa reported a +108.32 Full Year Profit After tax
Acceleration and trades on a PE of 8.352.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.38% to close at 264.00 and traded 936,700 shares worth
247.288m. EABL whilst -8.96% in 2014 is +20.547% since the 19th of
February, when it closed at a 52 week Low of 219.00 and all the Weak
Longs were flushed out. It is entirely unlikely that the 19th February
low will be revisited in 2014. The Violence and Speed of the +20.547%
Rally since 19th february is a very bullish chart formation, in fact.

Mumias Sugar rallied 4.23% to close at 3.70 and traded 1.084m shares.
Mumias Sugar has rallied +25.42% since releasing its 1st Half Earnings

Crown Paints rallied +6.71% to close at a Fresh 52 Week High of 87.50.
Crown Paints is +16.66% in 2014.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2014

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