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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 07th of March 2014
 
Morning
Africa

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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17-FEB-2014 :: STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE A Presentation I made to @Oracle
Africa


I am looking forward to being in London next weekend for The
Homecoming Revolution Event

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Join us on Sat 15th or Sun 16th March 2014 at Olympia
Africa


Join us on Sat 15th or Sun 16th March 2014 at Olympia for a day packed
with useful insights to equip you with all the tools that you need to
make the move home with confidence and security.
Meet top employers face-to-face, hear great speakers, be inspired by
wonderful homecoming journeys and attend helpful workshops.
Plus find out about property, schools, relocation services,
immigration advice, entrepreneurial opportunities and investments back
home.
Hear the amazing homecoming stories of Aly-Khan Satchu - "My escape
from the gilded box"| Tunde Ogunrinde - "Lessons from my Nigerian
homecoming"| Angel Jones - "Why it's okay to love & hate Africa"| Enyo
Kumahor - "I came home to live my digital dream"| Yusuf Abramjee -
"Ordinary South Africans doing Extraordinary things"| Samuel Mensah -
"The Homecomer's Dilemma: Get a job or start a business"| Isaac Fokuo
- "The next generation of African leaders"| Frances Mensah Williams -
"I want to work in Africa" | Alieu Fofanah - "Seven brand new insights
on the African Start up"| Nick Binedell - "Navigating Africa, the
business perspective"| Steuart Pennington - "The facts vs the
fiction"| Elvina Quaison - "Counting down to home" | Allon Raiz -
"Nine characteristics of an Entrepreneur"| Akinwale Ojomo - "The
diaspora dialogue" | Kenfield Griffith - "Surveying the scene from
East Africa" | Douglas Oppong & Shnayer Shapiro - "What's hot with
Property" | Eric Guichard - "All aboard the Investment Safari" |
Mabouba Diagne - "Barclays Africa" | Mizinga Melu - "A Closer look at
a new Dawn" | Paul Malherbe – "3 Career Insights for Africa"

It was Angel Jones ‏ @angel1jones, the Founder of @HomecomingRev who
came and found me in my Office one afternoon.

Her Tagline on Twitter ''Ex-advertising chick. A Yippie (Yuppie + Hippie)''

And then I am looking forward to being in Maputo for the IMF's iconic
#Africarising Conference in May.

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“Africa Rising” conference, a high-level conference jointly hosted by the IMF and the Government of Mozambique in Maputo, on May 29-30, 2014. #IMFAfrica #Africarising @IMFNews
Africa


The Africa Rising conference will be a two-days event focused on
taking stock of Africa’s recent strong economic performance, and the
key policy challenges facing the countries of the region as they move
up the ladder of development. This event is important for the IMF—as
an opportunity to listen to its member countries from Sub-Saharan
Africa and to provide a forum for Africans to learn from Africans.
This will bring together senior officials from sub-Saharan Africa,
international luminaries, business executives, academics, and
representatives of civil society. We also expect participation from
development partners—including emerging markets--and from
international financial institutions and African regional
organizations.

It is our intention to project the conference widely outside of
Mozambique—to other African countries and elsewhere in the
world—through web streaming in three languages (English, French and
Portuguese) and by encouraging a strong media presence. Your
participation in the event will help to ensure its success.

Several questions will be addressed during this conference: What are
the long-term challenges for Africa? How can Africa create more jobs
and reduce inequality ? How can the continent finance its transport
and energy infrastructure needs? How can the continent be better
protected against political and economic risks?

More specifically, we would like you to moderate the session on
Creating Sustainable Deeper and Broader Financial Markets .

And of course Madame Christine @Lagarde MD @IMFNews was my
''Maraschino cherry that you find on top of the Sundae'' Moment
earlier this Year at #Mindspeak

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Christine @Lagarde MD @IMFNews #Mindspeak #Africarising @InterConNairobi @YouTube
Africa


I was thinking about Madam Lagarde and she is seriously impressive.
And she said the loveliest things to Hannah.

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Christine @Lagarde Hannah myself #Mindspeak 6th Jan 2014 InterConNairobi
Africa


And of course Maputo does of course have the most flavoursome Tiger
Prawns in the World.

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GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. Maputo Boom Town June 4th 2012
Africa


The Architecture is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was
built in 1922 and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky.
It is less than 4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the
most of in things and places to visit.

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea. I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa
is clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

Mozambique is the next Qatar.

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By the way I watched Ridley Scott's The Counseller
Africa


The Counselor (spelled The Counsellor in some markets) is a 2013
British-American thriller film directed by Ridley Scott, from the
first original film screenplay by Cormac McCarthy. The film stars
Michael Fassbender as the titular Counselor—who gets in over his head
in a drugs deal around the troubled Juarez, Mexico / Texas border
area—as well as Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Penélope Cruz and Brad
Pitt. The film deals with themes of greed, death, the primal instincts
of humans and their consequences.

Its extremely good.

A Sea of Clouds above Nairobi 35,000 Feet yesterday 21 days ago
http://www.twitpic.com/dvgl2y

“Odd, yes, here in the capital of eternal youth, endless summer and
all, that fear should be running the town again as in days of old,
like the Hollywood blacklist you don't remember and the Watts rioting
you do - it spreads, like blood in a swimming pool, till it occupies
all the volume of the day. And then maybe some playful soul shows up
with a bucketful of piranhas, dumps them in the pool, and right away
they can taste the blood. They swim around looking for what's
bleeding, but they don't find anything, all of them getting more and
more crazy, till the craziness reaches a point. Which is when they
begin to feed on each other.”
― Thomas Pynchon, Inherent Vice

“Later they went outside, where a light rain was blowing in, mixed
with salt spray feathering off the surf. Shasta wandered slowly down
to the beach and through the wet sand, her nape in a curve she had
learned, from times when back-turning came into it, the charm of. Doc
followed the prints of her bare feet already collapsing into rain and
shadow, as if in a fool's attempt to find his way back into a past
that despite them both had gone on into the future it did. The surf,
only now and then visible, was hammering at his spirit, knocking
things loose, some to fall into the dark and be lost forever, some to
edge into the fitful light of his attention whether he wanted to see
them or not.”
― Thomas Pynchon, Inherent Vice

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SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days
Law & Politics


Far from seeking a diplomatic way out of the crisis, Putin appears to
have chosen to create facts on the ground before the West can agree on
more than token action against him.

Conclusions


President Putin has been winning for a while now.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Truxtun departs Naval Station
Norfolk for a scheduled deployment. Truxtun is heading for the Black
Sea for exercises with allied navies amid heightened tensions with
Russia over Ukraine.

http://www.stripes.com/news/destroyer-uss-truxtun-heads-for-black-sea-amid-heightened-tensions-over-crimea-1.271401

Poppy Fields Crimea

http://i.vgorode.ua/m/640x0/345646.jpg

The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins. Henry A. Kissinger

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?hpid=z2

The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a
foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus.
The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of
Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before
then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting
with the Battle of Poltava in 1709 , were fought on Ukrainian soil.
The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means of projecting power in the
Mediterranean — is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea.

Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine,
have not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse.
Russia would not be able to impose a military solution without
isolating itself at a time when many of its borders are already
precarious. For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a
policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.

Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when
it last came up.

Iran will soon receive a second installment of previously frozen
assets which are being returned to it under an interim nuclear
agreement with world powers, the official IRNA news agency quoted its
central bank chief as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-iran-nuclear-assets-idUSBREA250MD20140306

The official, Valiollah Seif, said on Wednesday that the new funds
would be transferred to Iran's account "in the next three days", but
did not state the amount.

In return, it is gradually winning back access to $4.2 billion of its
oil revenues frozen abroad, along with some other sanctions relief.

The funds will be paid out in eight transfers on a schedule that
started with a $550 million payment by Japan on February 1.

Last month, banking sources said South Korea was set to make two
payments in March totaling $1 billion.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, left, and Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, right, shake hands before their meeting at
the latter's official residence in Tokyo, Wednesday March 5, 2014

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/world/cms/binary/9581021.jpg

Zarif said some appear to be trying to torpedo the talks, making a
veiled reference to the crowd at Nethanyahu's speech to the American
Israel Public Affairs Committee, "but I don't think they'll succeed
because there is no other game in town. That's the only game. That's
the only reasonable game."

Quadrennial Defence Review 2014

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf

The United States faces a rapidly changing security environment. We
are repositioning to focus on the strategic challenges and
opportunities that will define our future: new technologies, new
centers of power, and a world that is growing more volatile, more
unpredictable, and in some instances more threatening to the United
States. Challenges to our many allies and partners around the globe
remain dynamic and unpredictable, particularly from regimes in North
Korea and Iran. Unrest and violence persist elsewhere, creating a
fertile environment for violent extremism and sectarian conflict,
especially in fragile states, stretching from the Sahel to South Asia,
and threatening U.S. citizens abroad. Meanwhile, modern warfare is
evolving rapidly, leading to increasingly contested battlespace in the
air, sea, and space domains – as well as cyberspace – in which our
forces enjoyed dominance in our most recent conflicts.

Rebalancing for a broad spectrum of conflict. Future conflicts could
range from hybrid contingencies against proxy groups using asymmetric
approaches, to a high-end conflict against a state power armed with
WMD or technologically advanced anti-access and area-denial (A2/AD)
capabilities. Reflecting this diverse range of challenges, the U.S.
military will shift focus in terms of what kinds of conflicts it
prepares for in the future, moving toward greater emphasis on the full
spectrum of possible operations.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3856 The ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent
at a meeting in Frankfurt yesterday
Dollar Index 79.67
Japan Yen 102.98 The dollar was little changed at 102.97 yen as of
2:35 p.m. in Tokyo, from 103.07 yen yesterday, and has climbed 1.2
percent this week, the biggest advance since the period ended Nov. 29
Swiss Franc 0.8795
Pound 1.6738
Aussie 0.9087 Australia’s dollar traded at 90.86 U.S. cents from 90.90
after rising as high as 91.13 yesterday, the strongest level since
Dec. 11. It has climbed 1.8 percent this week
India Rupee 61.04
South Korea Won 1061.71 South Korea’s won rose 0.4 percent to 1,062.98
per dollar in the past five days
Brazil Real 2.3228
Egypt Pound 6.9603
South Africa Rand 10.6257

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.67 [not exhibiting any Vigour]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

New York Fed President William Dudley said in New York yesterday that
while harsh weather will hurt growth during the first quarter, it
doesn’t prompt “a fundamental change in the outlook,” and “does not
rise to the level where you change the taper path.”

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in the text of a speech in
Washington yesterday there is “a high bar to reversing course,” unless
the U.S. economy “takes a major turn for the worse or a spell of
intense disinflation develops.”

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3856 [1.3380 STOP] Draghi
calls eurozone ‘island of stability’

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

ECB Raises 2014 Growth Forecast to Predict 1.2% Expansion

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.98 [I an bullish the Yen in the near term]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Thursday's milestone marked the S&P 500's fourth record closing high
over the past six sessions. @Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-markets-stocks-idUSBREA210XF20140306

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index (BUSY) of 24 commodities climbed
3.1 percent this year, led by an 77 percent surge for coffee and gains
for hogs, corn and gold. .

Arabica coffee, the bean variety favored by Starbucks Corp., reached a
two-year high this week amid the driest summer since 1972 for Brazil,
the biggest grower. Crude oil jumped to the highest since September,
reaching $105.22 a barrel in New York on March 3 as tensions escalated
between Ukraine and Russia, the biggest energy exporter. Unusually
frigid weather in the U.S. boosted demand for heating fuel, while
supplies of natural gas and coal will decline to six-year lows by the
end of this month, government data show.

World food prices posted the biggest gain in 19 months in February on
concern that cold weather and drought in the U.S., the biggest
exporter of wheat, and dryness in top-sugar producer Brazil will harm
crops. An index of 55 food items rose 2.6 percent to 208.1 from 202.9
in January, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said
yesterday. The gauge is still down 2.1 percent from a year earlier.

“We’re in a period of rising unpredictability around climate change,”
said Stephen Diggle, managing director and co-founder of
Singapore-based Vulpes Investment Management, which manages $250
million. “We see it as a significant and rising threat to food
production. The planet is going to experience more disruptions in food
production in the coming years than it has in the past. That means we
expect to see more volatility in prices.”

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1350.275 The price of gold jumped 12
percent since December

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.94

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sugar July 2014 1 Year Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_SB.N14.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Emerging Markets

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Heavenly Currency Intervention Is Sought @WSJAfrica
Africa


ACCRA, Ghana—A rising U.S. dollar has stirred many pastors here into
nightly prayers for their fallen currency to rise again.

"I command the resurrection of the cedi! In the name of Jesus!"
preached evangelist Nicholas Duncan-Williams of a megachurch called
Action Chapel, recently. Then he addressed Satan: "Take your hands off
the central bank!"

African countries are having a devil of a year, due in large part to
the slump in their currencies. From Gambia to Zambia, sharp drops
against the U.S. dollar are making imported goods more expensive,
forcing shopkeepers to raise prices, slowing business at many of
Africa's gleaming new shopping malls, car dealerships and fast-food
restaurants.

In Ghana, the cedi lost 11% against the dollar in the first two months
of 2014. Some radio personalities blamed the free fall on the devil,
others on mythical dwarves who practice witchcraft in the forest.

"These dwarfs, the black magic is what has made the cedi lose value,"
Anita Desooso, a political organizer for the ruling National
Democratic Congress told private radio station Adom FM recently.

Economists blame the currency weakness on more worldly reasons, such
as the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to trim its bond-buying
program. That has helped drive up the dollar against currencies
globally.

But compounding these pressures from afar is a problem of Africa's own
making: big budget deficits.

Many African governments preside over a rising and demanding middle
class and face evermore competitive elections. Yet their revenue still
mostly comes from exports of raw materials like gold, oil, platinum,
iron or copper. And global prices for those commodities are falling.

That means African revenue is falling. But government spending generally isn't.

Zambia increased civil-servant wages by 50% last year, while prices
for its key export copper fell 7%. That fueled a budget deficit that
the International Monetary Fund thinks hit 8.5% of gross domestic
product last year, nearly double the government's 4.3% target. As the
outlook has dimmed, investors have fled. Last week, Zambia's kwacha
fell to a record.

South Africa faces a similar crunch. Its rand lingers near five-year
lows to the dollar, just as officials are preparing a massive,
import-heavy infrastructure overhaul.

For months, Nigeria's central-bank governor warned that his country
also could find itself scrambling for revenue: "Nigeria is more than
anybody else in big trouble," said Lamido Sanusi, comparing Nigeria to
peer oil exporters. On top of Nigeria's weakening currency, he said
nearly $11.5 billion in oil savings has vanished in a fit of
election-year spending.

President Goodluck Jonathan recently ousted Mr. Sanusi, removing a
voice of dissent, and sending the naira to a record low.

A decade of dazzling growth has swept through Africa's biggest cities,
leaving about 1,000 KFCs by Yum Brands Inc. and 380 megastores from
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s South African unit, Massmart Holdings Ltd.,
according to the companies. Advertisements in Accra offer freshly
tiled condos at a princely sum of $3,000 a month.

Now, the question is whether those shops and restaurants can survive
their customers' diminished buying power.

Ghana was the second-fastest growing economy of 2011, and Africa's
fastest, thanks largely to a bonanza of retail expansion. That binge
of activity left the capital bedecked with shopping malls, U.S. hotels
like Holiday Inn and Best Western International Inc. and with
helipad-topped condominiums that overlook shacks.

The government spent heavily, too. It tripled civil-servant salaries,
a politically popular raise based on the hope that new oil and gold
extraction would keep soaring.

Instead, the price of gold fell 28% last year, lifting Ghana's budget
deficit to almost 11% of the value of the entire economy, and plunging
the cedi 24% against the dollar.

Landlords and shopkeepers compensate by pricing in dollars. Ordinary
Ghanaians stash their savings in the greenback.

Last month, Ghana's central bank published new foreign-exchange
restrictions to make it harder to buy dollars here. The rules block
depositors from moving cedis into dollar-denominated bank accounts.
Since they began, the currency has fallen an additional 7%.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund said Ghana's economy would
grow by 4.8% this year, down from 6.1% projected four months ago.

Freshly erected shopping malls are empty. New airlines fly half full.
Landlords say rents for flashy condominiums are backsliding. Utilities
are rationing water and electricity.

Ghana President John Dramani Mahama sees this financial tumult as his
chance to remake Ghana into a bustling agricultural and manufacturing
hub, not a procession of outlet malls. His government raised its
value-added tax to 17.5% from 12.5% and plans new import duties. He
hopes those measures will get shoppers buying from Ghana's fledgling
farms and factories.

"We've become a country that even imports toothpicks," Mr. Mahama
said. "The opportunity exists for Ghana to make a game change."

Next door, Nigeria is taking similar steps.

But of the $19 billion in foreign direct investment Ghana has
attracted in the past five years, very little has gone into new
manufacturing or agriculture. Most has gone to build up hotels, malls
or car dealerships.

In busier times, used-car salesman Prosper Gbadam often sold two
sports-utility vehicles a week. Now, he spends his evenings in a
church, praying for the cedi to rise.

He hasn't closed a deal all month.

Conclusions

ALY-KHAN SATCHU Wrote: (your comment)

The Achilles Heel of the African Resurgence is the recurrent
Expenditure [Salaries] component of their Budgets. Essentially,
Government in Africa is fabulously expensive and its Productivity
shockingly low. As our Economies grow and Africa is seeking to
accelerate its convergence [its happening about that let there be no
doubt], African Governments are beginning to load their balance
sheets. The Train wreck Risk whilst a residual one might grow because
I have yet to see or meet an African Politician who is prepared to
take a scalpel to the cost of delivering Government in Africa.
Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi

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African demography The dividend is delayed @Economist
Africa


HOW unusual is Africa’s demography? If you take a selection of
countries, from Algeria and Tunisia in the north to Botswana and South
Africa in the south, you may answer: not that unusual. In the early
1960s those nations had fertility rates of between 5.5 and 7.5,
meaning the average woman there could expect to have that number of
children during her lifetime. That was about the same as fertility in
Brazil, China, Indonesia and Mexico at the time. Now, all the
countries have similar fertility rates of between 1.5 and 3.0. The
main difference is that the Asian and Latin American nations saw their
fertility decline at a fairly steady pace over the past 50 years,
whereas the African ones saw their fertility stay high until the
mid-1980s, then fall sharply.

But a recent study by two French-speaking demographers, Jean-Pierre
Guengant and John May*, casts doubt on this picture of convergence
between Africa and the rest. The north and south of the continent,
they say, are exceptions. Most of Africa is catching up too little,
too late. The result is that the continent’s overall population will
rise sharply, its big cities will grow alarmingly, and though its
labour force will also expand (which is potentially good for growth),
its coming “youth bulge” will be hard to manage. They conclude that
governments must do much more to encourage and improve family
planning.

Recent census and survey data suggest that African fertility is
falling more slowly than the UN had expected in 2010, when it produced
its regular worldwide population survey. Since then, 17 African
countries with half the continent’s population have reported fertility
rates higher than the UN had estimated. Only ten, with 14% of the
population, came in lower. In almost all countries fertility is
falling. But in about half of them, the fall has slowed down and in a
few cases it has stopped.

Using recent figures, Messrs Guengant and May divide Africa into four
groups (see map). The first are those which really are converging,
with fertility rates below 4.0. There are 13 of them, and they have
22% of the continent’s population. All are either in the north or
south, or are islands, such as the Seychelles. Not a single one is in
west, central or east Africa.

Africa has 40 other countries (not including South Sudan, which has
not yet had its own census). Fifteen have fertility rates between 4.0
and 5.0. They are only starting to converge. This is a group whose
members have seen striking falls in fertility for a few years, which
have then stalled. They include some of the continent’s recent
relative economic successes, such as Ghana, Rwanda and Ethiopia, but
also a few abject failures, such as Zimbabwe and the Central African
Republic. They have the same share of the continent’s population as
the first group, 22%.

The next group is almost as large as the first two combined. Its 16
countries include Africa’s giant, Nigeria, which has 170m people, and
they account for 37% of the population. They are not really
converging—their fertility rates are between 5.0 and 6.0—though their
demographic patterns are starting to change, fitfully.

And the last group is seeing even less change. Its members have
fertility rates over six, not so different from the 1960s. Most are
landlocked; most have low rates of urbanisation. They include Uganda,
the Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, which, at 7.5, has the
highest fertility rate in the world.

Add the last three groups together and you find that 78% of Africa’s
people live in countries where the transition to low fertility and low
mortality (characteristic of the rest of the world) is nowhere near
finished. Hence the conclusion that most of Africa is not catching up
with the rest.

That has big implications for the overall size of the continent’s
population. There were 1 billion Africans in 2010. The UN, using its
“medium projections” (which imply continued convergence), reckons that
the population will increase to 1.6 billion by 2030 and will double by
2050. But if the past few years are any guide, these medium
projections are too low. According to the UN’s “high variant” (which
implies a slower fall in fertility), Africa’s population will rise to
2.7 billion by 2050. If that were to happen, Africans would then
account for more than a quarter of the world. In 1970, they made up
only a tenth.

Such an increase in population would be associated with enormous rises
in urbanisation and in the number of children. In 2010 Africa had
three cities with over 5m inhabitants (Cairo; Kinshasa, Congo’s
capital; and Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital). By 2050, it could
have 35, with Kinshasa and Lagos each exceeding 30m. Other burgeoning
mega-cities are Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam, Kenya’s Nairobi and Angola’s
Luanda (see chart). Providing basic services to them all will be a
nightmare.

There were 411m African children in 2010, aged 14 years or below. By
2050 there will be 839m, according to the UN’s high variant. Educating
all those young minds will be expensive. It is true that there will
also be lots of new arrivals into the labour force, who should be able
to earn the money to pay for their younger siblings to go to school.
In 2010 there were roughly 200m Africans between 15 and 24 years of
age and this number could rise to over 450m by 2050. But the African
Development Bank pointed out in 2012 that only a quarter of young
African men and just 10% of young African women manage to get jobs in
the formal economy before they reach the age of 30. The vast majority
of young Africans will continue to have precarious employment—a
worrying prospect.

To make matters worse, many economists fret that the recent story of
“rising Africa”—a virtuous circle of economic growth and improved
governance—is already starting to wear thin. Dani Rodrik of Princeton
University, for example, reckons that manufacturing and private
investment have hardly budged despite a decade of rising incomes. Some
economists, to be sure, say that Africa is ripe for a manufacturing
surge. But it is still the case that African growth depends heavily on
commodity exports to China, where demand for raw materials is slowing.

In these circumstances, the demographers argue, African governments
need to make a bigger effort to spread family planning. Over 60% of
women of child-bearing age use modern contraceptive methods in South
Korea, Mexico and Bangladesh. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, the rate
is below 20%. Until recently, some governments, such as Uganda’s, even
discouraged family planning, though that is changing on the whole. The
bigger problem is that social attitudes are not changing much—so,
Messrs Guengant and May argue, governments have to do more.

Family planning is not expensive. According to the Guttmacher
Institute, an American think-tank, it would cost about $1.5 billion a
year to provide modern contraceptives to all African women aged 15-49
who do not get them. The countries where they are used most frequently
are also the ones catching up fastest with the rest of the world.
Unless the other African countries follow suit, the continent will see
its demographic convergence lag behind; it also risks getting stuck,
by having too many people with too few chances of escaping poverty.

Conclusions


The Demographic Dividend was always a binary Thing and could morph
into a Demographic Timebomb and your ''high variant'' Projection puts
that second option into sharper focus. The Population Skew [young,
connected to the c21st via their Mobile Phones], expectation Levels
are a multiple of any other preceding African generation all point at
a very fluid and even dangerous moment for African Governments.
Aly-Khan Satchu Nairobi

read more


Orange hires adviser for African exit
Africa


French operator Orange has mandated Lazard to find a buyer for its
mobile telecoms business in Uganda, hot on the heels of the sale of
Warid Telecom’s local unit to Bharti Airtel, sources told TMT Finance.

Orange is thought to be planning an exit from several markets in
Africa where it does not already hold a number one or two spot. Aside
from Uganda, which is thought to be the only geography where an
official process is underway, this could also include Orange’s mobile
businesses in Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger, among
others.

Uganda’s mobile market is dominated by MTN and Bharti Airtel. The
latter acquired the third largest operator Warid Telecom for around
US$100m from the Abu Dhabi Group in May 2013. MTN has around 8.5
million subscribers in Uganda, while post-merger, Airtel has over 7.5
million. The next largest is Uganda Telecom’s UT Mobile unit, with
Orange Uganda among the country's smaller operators.

According to sources, the most logical buyer of the Orange Uganda unit
could be MTN. The South African operator has previously been vocal
about consolidation in the country, and will be keen to firm up its
number one position, with second place Airtel gaining valuable ground.
While Airtel is also clearly in acquisition mode across Africa,
sources said it was unlikely the Indian telco would make a move for
Orange Uganda so soon after its Warid buyout.

With such a crowded market, consolidation will be the most likely
outcome, although there could also be interest from newcomers, sources
commented. Vodacom is thought to have made a bid for Warid Telecom
Uganda, before losing out to Bharti Airtel, and although Orange Uganda
is substantially smaller, the unit could give Vodacom a footstep in a
market where it clearly sees potential.

Next up for Orange could be the sale of its mobile unit in Kenya,
formerly Telkom Kenya Orange, which has been struggling against larger
rivals Vodafone-backed Safaricom and Bharti Airtel’s local unit, with
continual losses which are unlikely to plateau until 2016 at the
earliest.

A decision by Orange to exit the market could be accelerated following
the news that fourth place Essar’s yuMobile will be sold and split
between Orange’s rivals, with Safaricom to buy yu’s infrastructure,
and Airtel to get its 2.7 million subscribers.

"The President of the Republic issued a decree to lift the state of
emergency beginning on March 5, 2014," a statement from the presidency
said on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-tunisia-emergency-idUSBREA250XX20140306

Tunisia has lifted a state of emergency three years after it was
imposed, in a largely symbolic move to show security is improving in
the North African state.

Mozambique opposition wants foreign mediation @AP

http://www.sacbee.com/2014/03/06/6213420/mozambique-forces-accused-of-attacks.html

MAPUTO, Mozambique -- Mozambique's main opposition party Renamo
revived its demand for foreign mediation of ongoing talks with the
government aimed at ending renewed hostilities between the two old
foes.

But the head of the government delegation, agriculture minister Jose
Pacheco, was quoted Thursday by Mozambican state broadcasting as
saying that the dialogue with Renamo was an internal matter between
Mozambicans for which no foreign mediation was required.

"The government has no wish to internationalize the discussions. We
have made it clear that the issue under discussion now should be the
immediate and unconditional disarming of Renamo," he said.

"So far Renamo has not disarmed a single one of its gunmen, despite
extracting all the key concessions it wanted from the government on
the electoral laws," he said.

On Wednesday deputies from the ruling Frelimo party in the Mozambican
parliament accused Renamo of not keeping its word and continuing
attacks in the central province of Sofala.

Also on Wednesday, Antonio Muchanga, spokesman for Renamo leader
Afonso Dhlakama, claimed that units of the riot police and of the army
had bombarded the Gorongosa mountain range where Dhlakama is believed
to be hiding with heavy artillery.

Reacting to this, Pacheco said that on Monday Renamo killed four
police when they attacked the frontier guard post at Mussicadzi, 60
kilometers (37 miles) from Gorongosa town.

Security forces are pursuing the group that launched the Monday attack, he said.

Eskom Starts First South Africa Power Blackouts Since 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-06/eskom-says-south-africa-may-face-power-blackouts-on-wet-coal.html

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. began rolling scheduled blackouts in South
Africa for the first time in six years after rain disrupted the
state-run utility’s supply of coal, burned to generate more than 80
percent of power.

The company earlier today asked industrial users, including Sasol Ltd.
(SOL) and ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd., to scale back demand by 10
percent until at least 9 p.m. The cities of Cape Town and Johannesburg
issued timetables on when electricity cuts will take place, and the
rapid-rail Gautrain network stopped services between the Marlboro and
Rosebank stations in Johannesburg, it said in a text message.

About 23 percent of Eskom’s 42,500 megawatts of installed capacity has
been out of service this year, according to Bloomberg calculations
made using the company’s data.

The capacity deficit during peak use today will be about 3,500
megawatts, the worst since 2008, Etzinger said. Eskom declared its
most recent emergency on Feb. 20 after four generating units went
down.

The utility expects to continue rolling blackouts, known locally as
load-shedding, until 10 p.m. and may end them earlier if the situation
improves, it said in a statement. The process is in Stage 3, which
allows for as many as 4,000 megawatts of the national load to be shed,
according to an Eskom website set up to inform customers when cuts
will occur.

A labor strike at the three largest platinum-mining companies in South
Africa, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, has brought some
relief to the electricity grid, with the mines reducing power demand
by about 400 megawatts, Eskom’s Etzinger said Feb. 26.

“Overall Eskom has basically no emergency capacity, which means it
cannot absorb any hits on random events,” Peter Attard Montalto, a
London-based emerging-markets economist at Nomura International Plc,
said in a text message.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.75% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

South Africa's main anti-corruption watchdog said on Thursday it would
release its report into a $21 million state-funded security upgrade to
President Jacob Zuma's private home on March 19, less than two months
before a general election.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-safrica-corruption-idUSBREA2515120140306

Standard Bank FY 2013 Earnings here

http://reporting.standardbank.com/downloads/archive/2014/SBK_FY13_Results%20presentation.pdf

Headline earnings: R17 194 million, up 15%
Headline earnings per share (HEPS): 1 064.9 cents, up 14%
Dividends per ordinary share: 533 cents (2012: 455 cents), up 17%
Capital adequacy: tier I capital adequacy ratio of 13.2% (2012: 11.2%)
Cost-to-income ratio: 58.5% (2012: 58.9%)
Credit loss ratio: 1.04% (2012: 1.08%)
Return on equity (ROE): 14.1% (2012: 14.0%)
Net asset value (NAV) per share: 8 127 cents (2012: 7 136 cents) up 14%

Standard Bank Group has produced a satisfactory performance in 2013,
increasing headline earnings per share by 14% and net asset value per
share by 14%. Group return on equity has increased to 14.1% from 14.0%
in 2012.

Total income and expenses grew by 10% while credit impairments rose
just 5%, reflecting a more normalised level of corporate credit
losses. A final dividend of 300 cents per share has been declared,
bringing the total dividend for the year to 533 cents per share, a 17%
increase on 2012.

Sim Tshabalala, Standard Bank Group Chief Executive says: “Underlying
momentum in our business units was maintained during the year with
particularly pleasing growth evident in our subsidiaries in the rest
of Africa, where 44% growth in aggregate headline earnings was
achieved. We made further substantial progress in group restructures
and implementing our Africa-focused strategy. Our positioning in
selected countries in Africa reflects our confidence in its economic
prospects. We continue to use our South African scale, as well as our
access to pools of capital around the world, to provide products and
services that deliver value to our clients across the continent.”

CIB recorded headline earnings of R6 591 million, a 49% increase on
the prior year. Moderate revenue growth of 9% (3% on a constant
currency basis) masks the continued strong growth in the CIB rest of
Africa franchise which now accounts for 39% of total revenues
generated

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.62559

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9605

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +17.27% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.50% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Foreign participation was "very marginal," said one analyst. "It's
probably that as those bills mature some international investors won't
roll over the position in the new auctions, so they'll just take their
FX and leave," he said, asking not to be named.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/nigeria-sanusi-investment-idUSL6N0M244Z20140306

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +12.84% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Zimbabwe is holding gold coins valued at $501,390 as its only
reserves, enough to buy only 1,400 tonnes of maize, the finance
minister said on Wednesday

http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183/1159910/

"The (central) bank does not hold any gold reserves except for gold
coins, which were valued at $501,390 as at the end of January 2014,"
Chinamasa said. Zimbabwe produced 13 tonnes of gold last year, well
below the all-time record of 29 tonnes in 1998.

We believe we’ll be the first Cape-to-Cairo broker. We started with
cash equities and we’re looking at the bond market, derivatives and
maybe asset management with an Africa fund.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-06/arqaam-tackles-jpmorgan-to-deutsche-with-cape-to-cairo-plan-1-.html

The firm plans to trade over-the-counter bonds and is focusing on
countries including Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Morocco and Egypt, he said.

RenCap, the Russian investment bank controlled by billionaire Mikhail
Prokhorov, said Feb. 24 it had hired Rupert Preece to head sub-Saharan
fixed-income trading as demand for African bonds increases. Last year
Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) switched its coverage of fixed income in
sub-Saharan Africa from London to Johannesburg to boost emerging
market revenue.

Zambia joins other African nations including Ghana and Kenya in
selling dollar-denominated debt this year. Countries in the continent
may sell as much as $5 billion in bonds by June, according to
Johannesburg-based ETM Analytics Ltd.

The company has been visiting exchanges across the continent and there
may be a “strong push for sukuk,” Abbott said, commenting on
Shariah-compliant bonds.

South Africa plans to sell its debut international sukuk this year and
introduce two long-term domestic bonds as the nation diversifies its
debt portfolio to reduce refinancing risks, the National Treasury said
on Feb. 26.

"Investment sentiment in the last year has moved against the mining
sector, but the governments tend to have a lagging view of how this is
going to affect investment in their countries," said Mike Elliott,
global mining and metals leader at Ernst & Young.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/mining-beneficiation-africa-idINL6N0LV3N220140306

"They continue to argue that mining needs to make a bigger
contribution to their economies, but you'll have to see investment
severely tail off to make them think they need to attract investment
rather that scare it away."

Uganda president wants poachers 'shot on sight'

http://news.yahoo.com/uganda-president-wants-poachers-shot-sight-144937490.html

"Those with guns who cross to disturb, you should shoot them," the
president was quoted as telling border security guards.

The president's spokesman, Tamale Mirudi, confirmed the comments,
saying Museveni was "just stressing the importance of security in the
national park, preservation of animals and the safety of the
tourists."

"You can cripple tourism for years when one European is killed in a
national park," he said.

read more


Bamburi Cement Company Ltd reports FY 2013 PAT -24.764%
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           206.00
Total Shares Issued:          362960000.00
Market Capitalization:        74,769,760,000
EPS:             9.55
PE:                21.57

Full Year Results through 31st December 2013 versus through 31st December 2012

Full Year Turnover 33.928b versus 37.491b -9.503%
FY Operating Costs [28.686b] versus [30.650b] -6.407%
Operating Profit 5.242b versus 6.841b -23.373%
Full Year Profit before Tax 5.516b versus 7.176b -23.13%
Full Year Profit after Tax 3.673b versus 4.882b -24.764%
Full Year Earnings Per share 9.55 versus 12.17 -21.52%
Interim Dividend 2/= + Final Dividend 9/= a share=11.00 versus 10.50 +4.76%
Note that they have paid out as Dividend 115.18% of Full Year Earnings
Per Share.

Company Commentary


Commenting on the Company’s results the Managing Director Mr Hussein
Mansi said, “In the first half of 2013, we experienced a drop in the
Company’s performance mainly attributable to competitive pressure in
Uganda and we also saw a significant reduction of exports out of
Uganda to the inland Africa markets due to political tensions, which
impacted our overall performance.”
In Kenya, the Company retained a strong position, which rebounded in
the second half of 2013   notwithstanding a contracted market in the
first half of the year. There was also a notable slowdown in the
infrastructure segment, where the Company is strongly positioned, due
to delayed payments to contractors on major projects.
Bamburi Cement Group expects 2014 to be a better year with easing
political tensions in major Inland Africa markets out of Uganda, as
well as an improved business environment in Kenya which the Company
has already started witnessing.
The Group is also keen on identifying capacity increase opportunities
in Kenya and Uganda in line with Lafarge’s announcement of 10 million
ton expansion in Sub Saharan Africa.
In Uganda, the Company expects improved plant efficiencies to result
in lower power consumption, to mitigate against rising power tariffs.
 ‘’We invested KES. 467 Million in a new Pet coke mill in Uganda and
increased alternative fuel substitution in both Kenya and Uganda,
which will realize a reduction in energy costs in 2014 as these
measures gain momentum.
The company is also optimistic that a better power generation mix
expected in Kenya in the 2nd half of 2014 may further ease power
costs.  On the environment front, the successful commissioning of a
KES 275 Million  new bag filter in Uganda, goes a long way to a
sustained commitment to compliance to Global environmental
standards,’’  explained Eric Kironde the Company’s Finance Director.
The Company paid an interim dividend of KShs. 2.00/= per ordinary
share amounting to KES. 726 Million on 15th October 2013.
The Board of Directors recommends payment of a final dividend of KES.
9.00/= per ordinary share (KES. 8.50/= per ordinary share paid in
2012) subject to approval by shareholders at the Annual General
Meeting.  The final dividend, when added to the interim dividend
already paid, brings the total dividend for the year to KShs. 3,993
Million (KES. 3,812 Million in 2012).

Conclusions

Bamburi Cement Earnings have been on a declining Trend for the last 24
months. Note they have paid out 115.18% of FY Earnings Per Share as
Dividend.
I expect Earnings to improve from here and snap the 24 month decline.
The Final Dividend is worth 4.36% of yield but on a PE of 21.57 I
think we should a correction from this level of 206.00, near term.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.494

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +3.28% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.60% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The official Closing Data has not been received as I file this.
Equity Turnover was 510.755m.
BRITAM EA and Bamburi Cement reported FY Earnings.
The Market traded higher today.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed 3.0211% to close at 17.05 and traded
shares as high as 18.00 +8.76% at the Closing Bell. Sasini Tea is
+16.38% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom was the most actively traded share for the 2nd consecutive
Session and eased 0.423% to close at 11.75 and traded 11.849m shares.
Safaricom has traded 39.29m shares over the last 2 sessions. Safaricom
is +8.294% in 2013.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


BRITAM EA reported FY 2013 Earnings where FY Profit Before Tax 2013
increased +12.274% to 3.196161b, however, Full Year Earnings Per Share
was unchanged on a Year on Year Basis. BRITAM EA is in a Dash for
Growth with FY Revenue expanding +28.838% to 15.130058b. BRITAM EA
cited a +26.5% Acceleration in the Revenue for the Insurance Business
in Kenya, a +62.6% Gain in Asset Management Fees and an eye popping
+232.2% gain via their regional Businesses [off a Low Base,
admittedly] . BRITAM EA had rallied +20.462% since the start of the
Year through this morning and that follows on a very powerful Rally in
Q4 2013. BRITAM corrected 2.1917% lower today to close at 17.85 and
traded 1.003m shares.

Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.56% to close at 45.00 and closed the
Session trading at 45.50 +1.68% session highs. Kenya Commercial Bank
traded 2.282m shares worth 103.245m and Demand outweighed Supply by a
Factor of 20 versus 12 at the Closing Bell. KCB rallied +2.8571% this
week.
Equity Bank firmed 0.75% to close at 33.50 and traded 2.143m shares
worth 71.808m. Equity Bank has rallied 3.875% this week.
COOP Bank ticked 0.27% higher to close at 18.70 and traded 2.766m
shares worth 51.76m. COOP Bank is yet to release its FY Earnings.
Barclays Bank eased 0.613% to close at 16.20 and traded 1.173m shares.
Barclays Bank is -7.95% in 2014 and trades on a PE of 11.571.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Bamburi Cement reported FY 2013 Earnings where Full Year Turnover
declined -9.503% to 33.928b, FY Profit After Tax declined -24.764%
making that a 2 Year Losing Streak, FY Earnings Per share declined
-21.52%. Bamburi Cement is proposing to pay a Final Dividend of 9
shillings making that a Total Dividend Pay Out of 11 shillings a share
and a +4.76% Increase on a Year on Year Basis. In fact, Bamburi Cement
is paying out 115.18% of its Full Year Earnings Per share as Dividend,
which speaks to a Management expressing confidence about 2014 or a
Parent looking for cash. Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 206.00 and
traded just 300 shares. Bamburi Cement is -1.904% in 2014 and now
trades on a PE of 21.571 which looks expensive and therefore, I expect
some slippage in the Price notwithstanding a chunk Final Dividend
worth 3.83% of Yield on the current Price.
East African Portland has been on a Roll of late as the Chairman has
chosen to remind me and rallied +4.94% to close at 85.00. Portland has
rallied +23.188% in 2013 and Sentiment continues to improve regarding
its prospects, with a large Land bank being touted as a Way Forward
for retiring debt and dashing for Growth.
Athi River Cement firmed 1.21% to close at 83.50 and traded 5,100 shares.

EABL eased 1.15% to close at 260.00 and traded 134,800 shares. EABL
sits +18.721% above its 52 week Closing Low of 219.00 from the 19th of
February last month. The 19th of February constituted a Selling Climax
and the Rebound from that Level is a constructive and Bullish Signal
for the share price going forward.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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