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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 21st of March 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Africa Rising conference will be held May 29-30, 2014, in Maputo @IMFNews
Africa


The event is intended to follow up on the 2009 Tanzania Conference,
which helped galvanize international support for Africa after the 2008
financial crisis. The conference will bring together policymakers from
Africa and beyond, the private sector, civil society, academics, and
private foundations with the goal of sustaining the current growth and
sharing its benefits among African populations.

read more


17-MAR-2014 :: Of Matters UK And The Scramble For Crimea
Africa


So yes London is booming and I think the city and by extension the UK
is a little like Dubai. Both cities have become safe havens in an
uncertain world.

read more




With Thanks to @Bgachenge @CNBCAFRICA for taking my thoughts @NSEKenya #Russia COOP Tea Prices
Africa


CNBC Africa @Bgachenge is joined by Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich
Management Video
http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=3361919207001

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust.”  ― Rumi

“Sit, be still, and listen,
because you're drunk
and we're at
the edge of the roof.”
― Rumi

When you go to the Mevlana's Mausoleum in Konya as You enter the
following is written;

“Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again , come ,
come.”

Photo Konya
http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/25281533.jpg

History of the Universe Wired
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2014/03/History-of-the-Universe-BICEP2.jpg

read more


U.S. Prepares to Gas Russia Into Submission
Law & Politics


Seventy-six percent of Russia’s natural gas exports are bound for
Europe, the bulk of it to Germany, Italy, France and the United
Kingdom. Russia’s weight in the world is largely derived, not from its
economically burdensome nuclear arsenal, but as an energy giant. The
U.S sets the stage for a protracted assault on Russia’s energy trade,
which accounts for more than half of Moscow’s federal expenditures.

Thanks to shale fracking, the United States recently surpassed Russia
as the world’s number one exporter of natural gas, and will next year
become the top oil producer. As the New York Times reported on March
5, “The administration’s strategy is to move aggressively to deploy
the advantages of its new resources to undercut Russian natural gas
sales to Ukraine and Europe.” That’s not the half of it.

Conclusions


He has a Point. Fracking is a Geopolitical Game Changer and the US has
not even begun to swing the Bat, yet.

read more


What Chess Players Could Teach Obama About Handling Putin
Law & Politics


“As I have said for years, it is a waste of time to attempt to discern
deep strategy in Mr. Putin’s actions,” Kasparov wrote in a column in
the Wall Street Journal this month. “There are no complex national
interests in a dictator’s calculations. There are only personal
interests, the interests of those close to him who keep him in power,
and how best to consolidate that power.”

So what to do? “If the West punishes Russia with sanctions and a trade
war,” Kasparov wrote, “that might be effective eventually, but it
would also be cruel to the 140 million Russians who live under Mr.
Putin’s rule. And it would be unnecessary. Instead, sanction the 140
oligarchs who would dump Mr. Putin in the trash tomorrow if he cannot
protect their assets abroad. Target their visas, their mansions and
IPOs in London, their yachts and Swiss bank accounts. Use banks, not
tanks.”

Obama is doing pretty much what the grandmaster advises. This week the
White House announced sanctions on seven top Russian government
officials and four others from Ukraine. The moves were made in concert
with the 28-member European Union, which imposed its own set of
penalties. The U.S. also included a ban on travel visas.

Conclusions


But Obama is correct that in the broad scheme of things, life is not
chess. The U.S. has no interest in putting Russia in checkmate. The
two nations would be much better off as partners. In chess it’s
perfectly acceptable to sacrifice all your pawns, knights, bishops,
and rooks if that’s what it takes to pin down the opponent’s king. Not
in the real world. So Obama is correctly opening exit doors—if Putin
steps back, Russia will be rewarded. For Obama, the trick is to play
the diplomatic chess game like a grandmaster, while seeing the
opportunity for moves that benefit both sides of the board.

Further Conclusions


The Crimea Precedent is surely worrisome for China where a number of
the Periphery would surely choose to peel off.

I thought The President was pivoting to Asia anyway.

President Obama and President Putin

http://tribktla.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/obama-putin.jpg

read more


THE ROVING EYE Russian sanctions as war and farce By Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics


Moscow is playing it cool because it may choose among a staggering
array of counterpunches. It enjoys the support of the BRICS group of
emerging powers, the non-aligned movement (NAM) and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). Composing with the US, Moscow agreed
to impose sanctions on Iran, and is a key player in the P5+1 nuclear
negotiations. If the sanction comedy goes on, Moscow has already
announced it will play hardball with the P5+1, will cease to sanction
Iran, and may even, finally, weaponize Tehran with jewels of the S-400
variety.

Moscow - the number one oil and gas exporter on the planet - can also
play further hardball with Europe's dependency on Gazprom; clinically
target US companies working in Russia; speed up the BRICS-coordinated
escape from the US dollar, as in a new international payment system in
a basket of currencies for the BRICS as well as other emerging
markets; and even activate the ultimate economic nuclear bomb - which
is to accept payment for Russian oil and gas in ruble, yuan, euros or
gold, thus delivering a terminal blow to the petrodollar.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, will be the end of the comedy hour.

read more


Turkey blocks access to @Twitter website @AJELive
Law & Politics


Users reported on Friday that they were forwarded from twitter.com to
a statement from Turkey's telecoms regulator, TIB, which cited court
orders for the site's apparent closure.

The statement cited four orders as the basis for blocking the site,
where some users in recent weeks have posted voice recordings and
documents purportedly showing evidence of corruption among Erdogan's
inner circle.

The state-run Anatolia news agency said authorities "technically
blocked access to Twitter" because the service had ignored the orders
to remove some links deemed illegal, the AFP news agency reported.

Twitter said that it was investigating, but had not issued a formal
statement. The company did post a message instructing Turkish users on
how to continue using the service via SMS text message.

Erdogan on Thursday promised to "root out" and "wipe out" Twitter
services, which he said has helped his political enemies conduct a
smear campaign against him.

"The international community can say this, can say that. I don't care
at all. Everyone will see how powerful the Republic of Turkey is," he
said.

Leaked recordings shared and linked on Twitter include one in which
Erdogan allegedly instructs his son to dispose of large amounts of
cash from a residence amid a police corruption probe.

Erdogan insists the recordings are fabricated "vile fakes" and part of
a plot to discredit the government ahead of the March 30 elections.

Following his speech, Erdogan's office said he was referring to what
it called Twitter's failure to implement Turkish court orders seeking
the removal of some links and that they may be left with no option but
to ban the platform.

"If Twitter officials insist on not implementing court orders and
rules of law ... there will be no other option but to prevent access
to Twitter to help satisfy our citizens' grievances," the statement
said.

The apparent blocking was only the latest clash between Turkey's
ruling party and social media companies including Google, Facebook and
Twitter.

After a series of popular protests partly fuelled by Twitter last
summer, Erdogan slammed the service as "a scourge".

Erdogan said two weeks ago that Turkey could also ban Facebook and
YouTube, which he says have been abused by his enemies after a stream
of audio recordings purportedly revealing corruption in his inner
circle emerged online.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3782
Dollar Index 80.17
Japan Yen 102.38
Swiss Franc 0.8834
Pound 1.6508
Aussie 0.9057
India Rupee 61.11
South Korea Won 1082.45
Brazil Real 2.3264
Egypt Pound 6.9626
South Africa Rand 10.9001

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.17 [at key resistance levels]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3782

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.38

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Russian stocks traded in New York fell the most in two weeks as President @BarackObama imposed financial sanctions on a wider swath of Russian officials
International Trade


The Bloomberg Russia-U.S. Equity index of the most-traded Russian
shares in the U.S. dropped 3.3 percent to 80.10 in New York yesterday.
The measure extended declines after Standard & Poor’s reduced its
credit outlook on Russia. Futures on the RTS Index sank 4.2 percent in
U.S. hours. OAO Novatek, Russia’s largest private gas producer,
dropped 5 percent in London, while CTC Media Inc. fell to the lowest
level in more than a year.

The Treasury Department’s sanction list affects officials including
Gennady Timchenko, who controls Novatek, Yury Kovalchuk, who owns Bank
Rossiya and CTC Media, and Putin’s former judo partner Arkady
Rotenberg, an investor in road builder OAO Mostotrest. Obama also
signed a new executive order authorizing, though not implementing,
sanctions affecting parts of the Russian economy, which he didn’t
specify.

Gross domestic product slowed to 1.3 percent last year, the weakest
pace since a contraction in 2009. Even before the U.S. and the
European Union imposed sanctions, Deputy Economy Minister Sergei
Belyakov said March 17 the economy was showing signs of “crisis.” S&P
lowered Russia’s growth forecast to 1.2 percent this year.

The geopolitical tensions have sent the benchmark Micex Index into a
bear market, with the measure dropping 12 percent this year. The Micex
gained 0.1 percent at the close in Moscow, before Obama announced the
sanctions. The Russia-US Index has declined 22 percent so far in 2014,
set for its worst annual performance since 2008.

Capital outflows from Russia have increased 60 percent this year to
$45 billion from the first quarter of last year, Goldman Sachs Group
Inc.’s economists, led by Clemens Grafe and Andrew Matheny, wrote in a
March 13 report.

The Micex is the cheapest among 21 developing countries monitored by
Bloomberg, trading at 4.8 times estimated earnings, compared with 9.1
times estimated earnings for the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge.

The ruble fell for the first time in five days, declining 0.7 percent
to 36.38 per dollar. The currency is the worst performer this year
after the Argentine peso among 24 emerging markets tracked by
Bloomberg.

S&P reduced Russia’s credit outlook to negative from stable, citing
geopolitical and economic risks.

“The prospect of U.S. and EU economic sanctions following Russia’s
incorporation of Crimea could reduce the flow of potential investment,
trigger rising capital outflows, and further weaken Russia’s already
deteriorating economic performance,” S&P said.

Conclusions

The MICEX is a BUY on retracements.

Micex Composite IndexMCX:MCX Chart via @FT

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=571689

On Thursday, MCX:MCX closed at 1,320.5, 6.48% above its 52-week low of
1,240.18, set on Mar 17, 2014.

read more




Hermes Posts Record 2013 Profit Margin as Demand Stays High
Commodities


Hermes International SCA (RMS) reported an 8.9 percent increase in
2013 earnings as the French maker of Birkin bags sold more high-margin
clothing and accessories.

Operating profit rose to 1.22 billion euros ($1.69 billion),
Paris-based Hermes said today in a statement. Earnings matched the
average of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The operating
margin widened by 0.3 percentage point to a record 32.4 percent of
revenue.

Hermes is weathering a slowdown in luxury-goods consumption better
than many of its peers as production constraints and controlled
distribution reinforce its elitist appeal. The company, which added
900 jobs last year, has said it plans to create two new leather-goods
premises in France to help catch up with demand that remains very
high.

Hermes “has the benefit of excess demand, waiting lists” and fewer
stores than competitors, Luca Solca, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas,
said in an e-mail. Given the limited amount of freely traded shares,
“the main interest today would be as a read-across to other names in
the sector,” said Solca, who has a neutral recommendation on the
stock.

Hermes shares rose 0.6 percent to 239 euros at 9:01 a.m. in Paris. The
stock has fallen 9.3 percent this year, valuing the saddle-maker
part-owned by billionaire Bernard Arnault’s LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis
Vuitton SA (MC) at 25.2 billion euros.

Emerging Markets

read more


Thursday's Taliban attack on the Serena hotel @AJEnglish
Frontier Markets


Nine people, including four foreigners, were killed in a Taliban
attack on a luxury hotel in Kabul on Thursday.

Deputy Interior Minister General Mohammad Ayub Salangi on Friday
released details on the fatalities following the attack on the Serena
hotel, the most prestigious accommodation in Kabul.

The Afghan fatalities included two men, two women and one child, while
the foreigners included two women and two men.

The attackers had pretended to be guests, hid small pistols in their
socks and penetrated several layers of security.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, according to the
AFP news agency.

"The four young attackers entered the hotel at about 6pm pretending to
be guests and started to attack at 9pm," Sediq Sediqqi, the interior
ministry spokesman, told reporters on Thursday.

"Two guards have been taken to hospital, as well as one foreign
national employee of the hotel. All four attackers were gunned down,
two of them after they resisted in a bathroom in the hotel."

During the attack, intense bursts of gunfire erupted inside the hotel
as security forces and emergency response teams rushed to the scene.

The attack occurred on the eve of Nawroz, the Persian New Year which
is a major holiday in Afghanistan, and the Serena was hosting special
evening celebrations.

The Serena, a venue favoured by foreign visitors to the Afghan
capital, was hit by a Taliban suicide attack in 2008 that left eight
people dead.

Taliban fighters have vowed a campaign of violence to disrupt the
Afghan election on April 5.

Conclusions


I extend my deepest condolences.

read more



The curious tale of the world-beating Somali shilling @FT
Africa


Here’s a pecuniary peculiarity to rival Bitcoin – the world strongest
currency over the past 12 months belongs to a small, war-torn African
state without foreign currency reserves or any discernible monetary
policy and a central bank of only three years’ standing.

Yet the Somali shilling, Somalia’s official currency, has overcome
such disadvantages to appreciate against the US dollar by just under
60 per cent since March last year, becoming the strongest among global
175 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Its surge has been so pronounced
that the second most robust currency over the same period – the
Icelandic Krona – could only manage a measly 10.2 per cent rise.

So what lies behind the shilling’s gravity-defying performance?

Improving security over the past year has encouraged native Somalis to
return to the country, bringing foreign currency with them, said Ben
Payton, senior Africa analyst at London-based risk analysis company
Maplecroft. Somalia is recovering from decades of civil war and also
faces an Islamist insurgency from al-Qaeda-linked jihadis who mount
regular attacks on the capital and claimed responsibility for the
terrorist attack on a Nairobi shopping mall in October last year.

Donors have pledged billions of dollars to help secure and rebuild
Somalia at recent conferences in the hope that it can make good on
recent military gains against the militants.

The inflows and modest levels of foreign investment have been largely
responsible for the appreciation of the Somali shilling, Payton said.

“As a result, the supply of US dollars in relation to the Somali
shilling has increased. With shillings in comparatively short supply,
the value of the currency has appreciated.”

The shilling’s story stands in sharp contrast to the weakness of many
other emerging market currencies hit by the US Federal Reserve’s
unwinding of monetary stimulus since the start of this year.

On Wednesday, the Fed continued on this path, announcing that it will
reduce its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed
securities to $55bn from $65bn because of confidence that the
four-year-old US recovery is becoming self-sustatining. In addition,
Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman, appeared to suggest the Fed may
start raising interest rates.

The appreciation of the Somali Shilling is an anomaly as remittances
(hawalas) from abroad constitute the economic lifeline for many of its
people. These are mostly received in dollars, with some then converted
into local currency.

As the rates between the dollar and the shilling are determined by
black market traders, “there are considerable variations in the rates
offered by different operators,” Payton said.

Somalia’s central bank was re-established in 2011, but remains
powerless to set monetary policy in the country situated in the horn
of Africa and it isn’t backed by any hard currency reserves.
One of the strategic goals of the Somali Central Bank’s five-year
strategic plan from 2013-2018 released in August was to expand its
monetary instruments including the introduction of new currency.

“…this is not likely to be feasible for the foreseeable future, as the
embryonic federal government would have difficulty in rolling out a
new currency across the country, given that large areas are still
outside its control,” Payton says.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.2% 2014
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.9323

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9610

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +25.59% 2014 Africa's Best in 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,459.38 +172.53 +2.08%

If the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe
votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2001.pdf

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

http://static.indianexpress.com/m-images/Thu%20Jul%2025%202013,%2001:52%20hrs/M_Id_404767__Abdel_Fattah_al-Sisi.jpg

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.42% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Well over 500 people were killed in Nigeria last week when security
forces responded to what the military portrayed as a jailbreak attempt
by the Islamist group Boko Haram NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/world/africa/nigerian-army-facing-questions-as-death-toll-soars-after-prison-attack.html?ref=africa&_r=0

Well over 500 people were killed in Nigeria last week when security
forces responded to what the military portrayed as a jailbreak attempt
by the Islamist group Boko Haram, making it one of the bloodiest
episodes yet in the military’s five-year counterinsurgency campaign,
according to officials in the northern town of Maiduguri.

As inmates streamed last Friday through the opened gates of Giwa
Barracks, a notorious military detention center in Maiduguri, a
military plane fired on them while soldiers on the ground also opened
fire, killing scores, a senior hospital official in Maiduguri said.

“The aircraft opened fire from the sky,” he said. “The aircraft picked
them easily from up top.”

Other officials in Maiduguri corroborated his account and went
further, asserting that the overwhelming majority of those killed were
detainees imprisoned on flimsy or no charges — and not proven
insurgents, as claimed by the military.

“They managed to eliminate those who were in detention,” said Mr.
Zanna, the senator. “The whole episode is to kill the inmates. That’s
all.”

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.26% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


IMF, World Bank raise the red flag over Kenya’s debt
Kenyan Economy


Kenya must put a tight lid on its debt load to keep its economy on a
steady growth path, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the
World Bank have warned in a note to key organs that determine their
lending to member states.

East Africa’s largest economy risks rapid debt escalation when planned
borrowing for the mega projects in the pipeline are taken into
account, raising the red flag for the very first time on the dangers
to growth that is looming from Jubilee government’s leveraged
infrastructure development plan.

“A more detailed discussion of the costing of programmes and projects
envisaged under the second medium-term plan (MTP-2) would be warranted
in order to better assess their potential impact on debt
sustainability,” the lenders say.

The IMF-WB joint note proposes that Kenya finds new mechanisms of
funding its huge infrastructure projects that is devoid of debt as
envisaged by the MTP-2.

It recommends that Kenya should explore innovative funding mechanisms,
including public-private partnerships and assesses how any new
programmes and projects will be incorporated into the government’s
medium-term expenditure framework.

“Macroeconomic policies should cement recent successes by [among other
things] aiming at gradually lowering the public debt-to-GDP ratio
while raising infrastructure investment,” the Bretton Woods
institutions say in a memo that was circulated to their executive
boards early this week.

The executive boards are the decision-making organs that offer or deny
credit to IMF and World Bank member countries.

Kenya has committed to borrowing billions of shillings to finance mega
public infrastructure projects including the building of a standard
gauge railway line between the port city of Mombasa and the capital
Nairobi.

The country has also borrowed billions of shillings to finance power
generation and road construction. It is estimated that these
borrowings could soon take the debt load past 60 per cent of GDP.

Borrowing plans should remain anchored on the government’s medium-term
debt management strategy, the report says suggesting that the debt
ratio be kept at not more than 50 per cent of the GDP.

Kenya’s debt load crossed the 50 per cent of GDP mark late last year
to stand at Sh2.11 trillion or 57 per cent of GDP by end of December
2013.

And in what appears to have informed President Uhuru Kenyatta’s recent
drive to cut the public wage bill, the Bretton Woods lenders say
management of government’s expenditure on salaries and allowances will
be key to securing resources for development in the medium term.

The memo on the state of Kenyan economy singles out recent increases
in the salaries and allowances of MPs, members of county assembly,
lecturers and teachers as a having contributed to a steep rise in the
wage bill’s share of national and county spending.

Fiscal discipline will break down and disrupt provision of public
services if the wage bill growth is left unchecked, the memo warns.

Kenya must rein in “the recent increases in the wage bill that could
crowd out spending in much-needed infrastructure investment and social
protection,” the lenders say.

An unsuccessful fiscal devolution and unchecked growth of the wage
bill could derail fiscal discipline, leaving lower buffers to deal
with adverse shocks, and disrupt provision of public services.

The IMF and World Bank’s warning is in line with the Controller of
Budget Agnes Odhiambo’s recent signal that the government must reduce
the debt burden before it gets out of hand.

Mrs Odhiambo says in her latest budget execution report that the
Treasury must assess the debt pattern against the prevailing
macro-economic environment and take remedial measures, including
pursuit of austerity.

“Austerity measures should be enforced through all government entities
to eliminate low priority expenses,” she says.

The IMF and World Bank say Kenya’s debt reduction strategy should
include the costing of projects. The World Bank’s annual financial
commitments to Kenya in the past five years stood at between Sh26
billion ($301 million) and Sh76 billion ($881 million).

The IMF has lent Kenya some Sh65 billion (or $750 million) in the past
three years to cushion the economy against currency shocks.

The Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) is expected to hold
further public debates on the wage bill that President Kenyatta
launched a week ago to help come up with an overall position.

“We are going into the counties from next week to listen to the views
of the people. This exercise should take us two weeks and this should
enable us to come up with a position on how to deal with the wage
bill,” said a source at the commission.

Benji Ndolo, the director of the Organisation for National Empowerment
(ONE), a lobby group, said the proportion of the wage bill to national
income had risen disproportionately because many public sector workers
were lethargic, denying the economy the rate expansion it needed to
carry the burden.

“We have people in the public service who spend most of their time
day-dreaming and therefore have very low output,” he said.

Kenya’s wage bill-to-GDP ratio stands at 12.5 per cent, according to the SRC.

East Africa’s largest economy has recorded the slowest rates of
expansion (less than five per cent per annum) in the past five years —
trailing its neoghbours even as its debt load grew by double digits.

Kenya’s neighbours Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda have been growing at
the rate of between five and eight per cent.

“The wage bill is not so much about the cutting salaries at the top,
but about reducing waste, allowances, overheads, and cars within the
public sector,” said Mr Ndolo.

The IMF and World Bank report says the objectives of growth under
MTP-2 — which include speeding up expansion to the rate of seven per
cent by 2018 — can only be realised if Kenya improves governance,
keeps inflation low and refines the business environment.

Conclusions


Actually that is the message that I believe Christine Lagarde
delivered in Mombasa in January in her very velvet wrapped manner. The
President was fulsome in his Speech that evening see here

read more


President Uhuru Kenyatta's Speech During the Dinner Hosted in Honour of Visiting IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde at State House, Mombasa
Kenyan Economy


As I conclude, I note your legendary interest in roses...

Your schedule may not also allow you an opportunity for scuba diving...

Madame MD Your style has won you accolades amongst your Peers and IMF
member states Calm, cool, persistent We add, inclusive and
considerate with calm heads, and Partners like yourself, we need  to
take unconventional decisions to fuel Prosperity for our People

President @Ukenyatta and Madam Christine @Lagarde State Lodge Mombasa

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/sc691vn8Hy3y8CwfCJnkaQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTQyMTtweG9mZj01MDtweW9mZj0wO3E9NzU7dz03NDk-/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2014-01-06T215907Z_49531252_GM1EA170GFS01_RTRMADP_3_KENYA.JPG

read more




10-MAR-2014 :: Uhuru's Salary cut good But more needed
Kenyan Economy


I was reading an Article in the venerable Wall Street Journal about
currency weakness in Africa and I quote;

“I command the resurrection of the cedi! In the name of Jesus!”
preached evangelist Nicholas Duncan-Williams of a mega church called
Action Chapel, recently.

Then he addressed Satan: “Take your hands off the central bank!”

In Ghana, the cedi lost 11 per cent against the dollar in the first
two months of 2014. Some radio personalities blamed the free-fall on
the devil.

“These dwarfs, the black magic is what has made the cedi lose value,”
Anita Desooso, a political organiser for the ruling National
Democratic Congress told private radio station Adom FM.

The article concluded that “compounding these pressures from afar is a
problem of Africa’s own making: big budget deficits.’’

The Ghana cedi has been in free- fall for a while, Zambia’s kwacha is
at a record low, South African rand has fallen over 20 per cent in the
last 12 months. The Kenya shilling has outperformed its African peers,
in fact.

I responded to the article


The ‘Achilles Heel’ of the African resurgence is the recurrent
expenditure component of their Budgets.

African governments are beginning to load their balance sheets.

The train wreck risk whilst a residual one might grow because I have
yet to see or meet an African politician who is prepared to take a
scalpel to the cost of delivering government in Africa.

Then on Friday I learnt that President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy
President William Ruto will take a 20 per cent pay cut while members
of his cabinet will see their pay reduced by 10 per cent with
immediate effect.

Kenyatta said a new policy will restrict foreign journeys to only the
most essential. Kenya is spending close to $4.6 billion (Sh397.4
billion) in salaries leaving only $2.3 billion (Sh198.7 billion) for
development, Kenyatta said. Just consider that figure of $2.3 billion
for development. It’s not very much, is it?

“We need to deal with this monster if we are to develop this nation
otherwise sooner or later we will become a nation that only collects
taxes to pay ourselves,” Kenyatta said.

Kenyan police failed to realise that a car that they impounded from a
Somali man and stored outside their anti-terror unit offices for a
week was packed full of explosives already attached to a Nokia
detonator.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/kenya/10709065/Kenyan-police-park-massive-car-bomb-outside-their-offices-after-missing-explosives-in-vehicle.html

Kenyan police failed to realise that a car that they impounded from a
Somali man and stored outside their anti-terror unit offices for a
week was packed full of explosives already attached to a Nokia
detonator.

The blue Toyota four-wheel-drive was only thoroughly checked when
foreign counterterror officers believed to be from the FBI saw the
vehicle and recognised it was on an international alert list.

Six separate pipe bombs made up of a total of 130lb of plastic
explosive were welded into the vehicle’s rear seats, enough to
collapse a multi-storey building, according to Kenyan police.

An AK-47, 250 rounds of ammunition, detonators and grenades were also
found when a full search was eventually carried out and completed on
Tuesday.

The vehicle was impounded in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa on March
11, and the driver, a Somali, and his passenger, a Kenyan of Somali
origin, were arrested and charged with illegally importing a vehicle.

Conclusions


Asymmetric Risks remain potent.

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica #Nairobi Bureau

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

Richard Leakey also said the Kenyan Wildlife Service has been
infiltrated by powerful people enriching themselves off poaching. WAPO

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/cartel-inside-kenya-fueling-rhino-poaching-deaths/2014/03/19/880dfa00-af67-11e3-b8b3-44b1d1cd4c1f_story.html

Richard Leakey also said the Kenyan Wildlife Service has been
infiltrated by powerful people enriching themselves off poaching.
Kenya’s poaching ring leaders are known, he said, but the government
has taken no action. He did not give names.

Leakey, whose family has been investigating the origins of man for
decades in Kenya’s Turkana region, urged Kenyan President Uhuru
Kenyatta to overhaul management at the wildlife service.

“I call on him now personally to take the next step and get this under
control,” Leakey told a packed news conference at a Nairobi hotel.
“It’s not an impossible task. I think the right leadership, the right
management, can get it under control within six months.”

The official number of elephant deaths given by the Kenya Wildlife
Service does not indicate a crisis. Kenyan Wildlife Service says 302
were killed last year, down from 384 in 2012, out of an estimated
population of 35,000. Thirty elephants have been poached this year, it
says.

But Leakey and Paula Kahumbu, the chief executive of the group
Wildlife Direct, said they believe Kenya is losing many more
elephants. Kahumbu said “everyone knows those numbers are wrong.”
Leakey said: “It’s patently not true.”

Kahumbu said that is evidence of an average of 500 poaching deaths per
year in Tsavo the last three years.

“If we are failing, if somebody believes we are failing, action should
be taken,” Uduto said in a later interview. “We are doing our best.
Our people are working under incredibly difficult conditions, and we
want public support, not condemnations. And if there is a crooked
character, let him be dealt with.”

The Kenya Wildlife Service says 13 rhinos have been killed this year
compared with 59 last year. Rangers shot and killed an armed poacher
Monday in Lake Nakuru National Park, famed for its pink flamingos.

Wildlife Direct released a study Wednesday that found only 4 percent
of offenders convicted of wildlife crime in Kenya went to jail between
2008 and mid-2013. Of 743 court cases, 70 percent of the case files
were missing. A recent Interpol report found that more ivory is
transited through the Kenyan port of Mombasa than any other, but the
Wildlife Direct study found no evidence of prosecutions in Mombasa.

Leakey said rangers have asked him to speak publicly about the
country’s poaching problem. “Someone has to put an end to this
outrageous impunity,” he said.

read more


Nation Media reports FY PBT 2013 +2.4% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           325.00
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        61,276,242,950
EPS:             13.4
PE:                24.25

Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus through 31st December 2012

Full Year Revenue 13.3737b versus 12.3468b +8.3%
Full Year Profit before Tax 3.5871b versus 3.5046b +2.4% [versus
+17.507% at the First Half stage]
FY Profit after Tax 2.5332b versus 2.5103b +0.9122% [versus +23.989%
at the First Half Stage]
Full Year Earnings Per Share 13.4 versus 13.3 +0.75%
Cash at End of Period 4.097b versus 3.9603b
Final Dividend 7.50 a share +[Interim paid of 2.50 a share] represents
a 20% Pay Out Increase because of Bonus share.

Company Commentary


''The performance was tempered by the temporary business interruptions
of the regional subsidiary companies. Challenges were also experienced
with delayed payments resulting in high provision for bad and doubtful
debts.''

read more


Further Commentary via @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Kiswahili TV channel QTV whose revenue expanded by 117 per cent and 54
per cent operating profit growth.
The Business Daily posted a 51 per cent operating profit growth while
circulation and advertising revenue increased 12 per cent and 13 per
cent respectively.
Tanzania’s Mwananchi Communications operating profit grew by 29 per
cent while advertising revenue at Nation Newspaper’s Division grew 12
per cent.
“Despite the impact of the general election and the recently
introduced VAT, the underlying individual businesses did very well”
said Mr Gitahi.
This growth is in step with that realised by the group’s digital
division where online advertising went up 27 per cent.
“We are investing heavily in the digital division since we know it is
the next frontier,” said Mr Gitahi. “The performance of this division
is proof that the move to digital is extremely beneficial to us and in
line with our goal of digital first.”
NationHela, NMG’s prepaid Visa debit card, is growing and so far has
14,000 users. Mr Gitahi added that plans are under way to install a
new printing press.

Conclusions


There is a significant Step Down in the Full Year versus the First Half.
FY Profit Before Tax was +2.4% versus +17.507% at the H1 Stage.
The Dividend Pay Out has been raised 20% because of the Bonus share from 2013.
4.097b Cash on hand

H1 2013 Earnings through June 2013 versus June 2012

H1 Turnover 6.4281b versus 5.8441b +9.992%
H1 PBT 1.6169b versus 1.376b +17.507%
H1 PAT 1.1345b versus 0.9150b +23.989%
H1 EPS 6.02 versus 4.85 +24.123%
H1 Interim Dividend 2.50 versus 2.50 [Because of the Bonus Share Issue
The Dividend Pay Out has been hiked +20%]
Cash at End of Period 4.2068b

Nation Media Group CEO Linus Gitahi speaks during the investor
briefing at Serena Hotel in Nairobi March 20, 2014. Photo/BILLY MUTAI

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/NMG-posts-Sh3-6-billion-profit-/-/539550/2251958/-/item/1/-/13f0iwz/-/index.html

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.25% 2014 [0.07 of a point off a Record]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.45% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more





 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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