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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 26th of March 2014

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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This is #Africa 's Century Amb Sec Gen @RSezibera

I am looking forward to hosting the Sec Gen of the EAC Dr. Richard
Sezibera at #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi this Saturday 29th March

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#Mindspeak is held at the InterContinental Nairobi

This Year alone we have had some real heavyweight and wonderful Guests
from Madam Christine @Lagarde the MD of the IMF, Dr. Titus Naikuni CEO
@KenyaAirways and Charles Ireland CEO EABL.

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Crimea-Induced Trading Surge Stokes Moscow Bourse Rally

OAO Moscow Exchange is emerging as one of the winners from the rout
sparked by Russia's worst confrontation with the U.S. since the end of
the Cold War.

Shares of the bourse have rallied 18 percent in the past two weeks,
since voters in Crimea agreed to rejoin their former Soviet master.
The stock is the best performer among the largest Russian companies on
the Micex index, which rose 6.1 percent over that period, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. The Moscow Exchange gained 2.7 percent to
58.03 rubles yesterday, the highest level in almost three weeks.

The Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index of the most-traded Russian stocks
in the U.S. rallied 2.5 percent to 82.62 in New York yesterday, led by
OAO Gazprom. (GAZP) The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX), the biggest
U.S. exchange-traded fund that holds Russian shares, climbed 3 percent
to 23.02. While the Micex advanced 2 percent to 1,324.44 yesterday,
the measure is down 12 percent in 2014 after entering a bear market
this month.

Home Thoughts

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The First Signature of our Universe

Nairobi was misty and autumnal this early morning.

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Out Of Africa Karen Blixen


The early morning Air of the African highlands is of such a tangible
coldness and freshness that time after time the same fancy there comes
back to you: you are not on Earth but in dark deep waters, going ahead
along the bottom of the Sea. It is not even certain that you are
moving at all: the flows of chilliness against your Face may be the
deep-sea currents, and your car, like some sluggish electric Fish, may
be sitting steadily upon the bottom of the Sea, staring in front of
her with the glaring Eyes of her Lamps, and letting the submarine life
pass by here. The Stars are so large because they are not real stars
but reflections, shimmering upon the surface of the Water. Alongside
your path on the sea-bottom, live things, darker than their
surroundings, keep on appearing, jumping up and sweeping into the long
grass, as crabs and beach-fleas will make their way into the sand. The
Lights get clearer, and, about sunrise, the sea-bottom lifts itself
towards the surface, a new created Island. Whirls of smells drift
quickly past you, fresh rank smells of the olive-bushes, the brine
scent of burnt grass, a sudden quelling smell of decay.

To Autumn John Keats

SEASON of mists and mellow fruitfulness!
  Close bosom-friend of the maturing sun;
Conspiring with him how to load and bless
  With fruit the vines that round the thatch-eaves run;
To bend with apples the moss'd cottage-trees,            5
  And fill all fruit with ripeness to the core;
    To swell the gourd, and plump the hazel shells
  With a sweet kernel; to set budding more,
And still more, later flowers for the bees,
Until they think warm days will never cease,      10
  For Summer has o'er-brimm'd their clammy cells.

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Malt Whisky Tasting and Dinner Menu

I went to watch my Daughter Aysha who was Frenchie in the School Play Grease

And I am kind of dumbfounded at how so much time has slipped through
my Fingers. And especially with the Teenagers I feel like I am walking
in the dark, trying to intuit and understand a whole new Landscape.
With Layla after a series of Fracas, I pulled out her Photograph when
she was less than 1 and lying on my chest. And I said

''Look at that Photo, Darling. You are as close to me as you were then
and You have to always remember that.''

And I hugged her very tight because she likes that. And then when we
went to Michael Cunningham-Reid's cremation and all these Emotions
were flying around, we held each other tight.

A Cremation Hippo Point Naivasha RIP MCR

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Russia cannot hope to match global might of America, says Barack Obama in warning to Vladimir Putin
Law & Politics

Mr Obama appeared to meet such criticism by making clear that the US
is "the most powerful nation in the world" and one that other
countries looked to in order to take the lead on global crises such as
the conflict in Syria. Asked at a nuclear-security conference in The
Hague whether Russia was now Washington's top geopolitical foe, he
replied: "America's got a whole lot of challenges." But Russia, he
added, "is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate
neighbours, not out of strength but out of weakness. We [the US] have
considerable influence on our neighbours. We generally don't need to
invade them in order to have a strong co-operative relationship with


Times have moved on from the time of Donald Rumsfeld's comments [see
below] and I think @BarackObama cannot pivot to Asia and the Ukraine,

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Law & Politics

We decided to move away from the "two major-theater war" construct, an
approach that called for maintaining two massive occupation forces,
capable of marching on and occupying the capitals of two aggressors at
the same time and changing their regimes. This approach had served us
well in the immediate post -- Cold War period, but it now threatened
to leave us overprepared for two specific conflicts and underprepared
for unexpected contingencies and twenty-first-century challenges.

To ensure that we have the resources to prepare for the future, and to
address the emerging challenges to homeland security, we needed a more
realistic and balanced assessment of our near-term war-fighting needs.
Instead of maintaining two occupation forces, we decided to place
greater emphasis on deterrence in four critical theaters, backed by
the ability to swiftly defeat two aggressors at the same time, while
preserving the option for one massive counteroffensive to occupy an
aggressor's capital and replace its regime. Since neither aggressor
would know which one the president would choose for regime change, the
deterrent would be undiminished. But by removing the requirement to
maintain a second occupation force, we can free up new resources for
the future and for other, lesser contingencies that may now confront

"One of the main problems of the trans-Atlantic relationship is that
there's the American vision of what you'd like, and then there's the
European reality."

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US expands gas exports in bid to punish Putin for Crimea
Law & Politics

"America should be an energy superpower," Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana
Democrat who chairs the Senate energy committee said. "The last thing
Putin and his cronies want is competition from America in the energy

New York

Zuma extends deployment of SANDF troops in DR Congo


President Jacob Zuma has informed Parliament that, in terms of section
201(2)(c) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996,
he has extended the employment of members of the South African
National Defence Force (SANDF) for service in fulfilment of the
international obligations of the Republic of South Africa towards the
United Nations.
One Thousand Three Hundred and Forty Five (1345) SANDF members were
employed in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the period 01 April
2013 to 31 March 2014 to participate in the United Nations
Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(MONUSCO) as part of the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB).
Six (6) additional members of the SANDF will be further employed and
the total number of the members will now be One Thousand Three Hundred
and Fifty One (1351). The employment has been extended from 01 April
2014 to 31 March 2015.


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3808 It touched $1.3967 on March 13, the highest since October 2011.
Dollar Index 80.01
Japan Yen 102.30
Swiss Franc 0.8842
Pound 1.6520
Aussie 0.9194
India Rupee 60.225 India's rupee advanced for a third day amid
optimism a new government will spur growth.
The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party is leading in opinion polls
before elections due to start next month. Exchange data showed
overseas investors boosted their holdings of the nation's stocks and
bonds by $3.5 billion this month.
The Indian currency rose 0.5 percent to 60.48 per dollar after
appreciating to 60.4275, the strongest since Aug. 1.
South Korea Won 1075.11
Brazil Real 2.3120 The real gained versus most major peers. While
Standard & Poor's cut Brazil to its lowest investment grade of BBB-,
it shifted the outlook on the nation to stable from negative.
The Brazilian currency climbed as much as 1 percent to 2.2988 per
dollar, the strongest intraday level since Nov. 27, before trading at
2.3113, up 0.5 percent.
Egypt Pound 6.9602
South Africa Rand 10.7439

Fed's Plosser: Yellen's 'six months' comment was no mistake: CNBC


Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.01 [soft]


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3808


Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.30


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"Fed tapering is why the masses are exiting emerging markets but that's because they're all like sheep," O'Neill said.
Emerging Markets

"Greed and fear are close cousins. People are in love with emerging
markets one year, next minute they hate them."

"What the whole episode of the last years shows is that emerging
markets can't rely on generous external circumstances being
persistent," he said. "You've got to do better."

The underperformance of BRICs over the past three years has put many
investors off investing by acronyms, but O'Neill said a fairer
comparison was to look at the way the BRIC index has outperformed the
developed markets since 2000.

Global companies had had huge successes by focusing on them.

"What is GE (GE.N) other than a BRIC stock? Look at Apple (AAPL.O): 20
percent of its revenues are from China," he said



Frontier Markets

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Africa still rising, but needs economic discipline: AfDB

Sub-Saharan Africa's economy will grow more than 6 percent this year,
the African Development Bank said on Tuesday, but its president urged
governments to build resilience to capital outflows and commodity
price shocks.

In an interview with Reuters, Donald Kaberuka rejected as "premature"
suggestions the 'Africa Rising' narrative might have lost momentum as
a slowing China economy depresses prices for commodities such as
copper, and the run-down of the U.S. Federal Reserve's bond-buying
programme squeezes the flow of cheap capital into emerging markets.

"I still believe that Sub-Saharan Africa will do 6.4 percent in 2014,"
Kaberuka said. This would be stronger that the 6.2 percent gross
domestic product (GDP) growth the bank forecast in February and an
estimated 5.8 percent for 2013.

Slowing stimulus from abroad has sharpened investors' focus on
governance in Africa's biggest economies - South Africa and Nigeria -
and in Ghana, long praised for its stability but now seen struggling
to keep its debt and deficits under control after easy access to
international financing.

A decade after historic debt relief, Kaberuka, one of the biggest
cheerleaders of Africa's growth story, saw these problems as
"manageable" so long as governments exercised careful stewardship of
their debts and budget deficits.

The AfDB president said the internal dynamics which had boosted
Africa's surge over the last decade were still in play. "The internal
consumer power is still there, the booming urban populations are still
there," Kaberuka said.

Information technology advances were still "leapfrogging" across the
continent at a rapid pace, and more governments were managing their
economies better, he said.

"People should not rush to draw conclusions just because they see a
macro-economic blip here and there," Kaberuka said. "It's a bump, no
more than that."

Some economists and analysts have warned of a "Eurobond curse" that
could exacerbate the distorting "resource curse" on African economies.

They point to Ghana, whose economy expanded 14.5 percent in 2011 as
new oil finds swelled state revenues on top of income from cocoa and

The IMF forecasts slower growth for Ghana this year of 4.8 percent and
highlights the government's inability to stop fiscal deficits
widening, along with the current account gap which has weakened the
cedi currency.

"There is a saying, that sometimes good times can lead to bad
policies," Kaberuka said, adding that cases like Ghana reinforced the
need for African leaders to aim unwaveringly at lower inflation, debt
and deficits.

It was by strengthening macro-economic fundamentals that many African
states had buffered themselves in 2008 against the worst of the
effects of the world financial crisis, the AfDB chief said. It was
time again to deepen such efforts, he added.

"Countries took advantage of favorable markets to borrow - you can't
blame them for that. But now, as the (U.S.) tapering comes in, they
will have to be more careful in how they borrow, they will have to
strengthen domestic debt management, they will have to invest
carefully," Kaberuka said.

Speaking earlier at a business conference, Kaberuka said Africa also
needed to build infrastructure to create a single market and make it
easier for private sector business to grow.

"Macro-economic stability, which was achieved in Africa by many years
of sweat and tears, should not be frittered away," he said.



President Yoweri Museveni and other leaders from the Great Lakes
countries are in the Angolan capital to discuss the conflict in the
east of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Presidents: Paul Kagame, Dos Santos, Jacob Zuma and Joseph Kabila are
attending the extraordinary Heads of State Summit.

The meeting in Luanda brings together members of the committee of
ICGLR established to monitor the situation in the DRC.

President Dos Santos, current President of ICGLR, opened the summit
with emphasis on need to fight against negative forces including FDLR
and ADF.

"The summit intends to re-examine further steps to neutralize FDLR and
ADF, negative forces operating in the DRC. We cannot allow rebel
groups to continue destabilizing populations and undermine rule of law
and the integrity of borders. We cannot put off delivering peace and
security to our countries," President Dos Santos said.

"They Know Everything We Do" Telecom and Internet Surveillance in
Ethiopia Human Rights Watch


One day they arrested me and they showed me everything.

They showed me a list of all my phone calls and they played a
conversation I had with my brother. They arrested me because we talked
about politics on the phone. It was the first phone I ever owned, and
I thought I could finally talk freely. -- Former member of an Oromo
opposition party, now a refugee in Kenya, May 2013

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.44% 2014


Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.7523


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9610


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +26.21% 2014 [Fresh more than 5 year high]


8,501.63 96.17 1.14%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.97% 2014


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.45% 2014

Anadarko Petroleum Corp has sold two-thirds of the capacity of its
planned Mozambique liquefied natural gas (LNG) project to Asian
customers and hopes to have the rest sold soon, its chief executive
said on Monday.


"We think we have financially de-risked the project," Anadarko CEO Al
Walker said in an interview at the Howard Weil energy conference in
New Orleans. "We expect to make a final investment decision on the
project later this year."

Walker said he expects the remaining third of the Mozambique capacity
to be sold to Asian customers, not European customers, despite recent
tensions between Europe and Russia over Ukraine.


A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.August 19th 2013


Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st.  Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean becomes kind
of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite quickly. A
Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

Sun Rise #Maputo Polana Hotel #Mozambique Indian Ocean


Daimler Trucks Asia sells almost twice as much in Africa in January
and February 2014 as in the previous year


Margaret Nienaber, global head of Standard Bank's Private Clients
business, told How We Made It In Africa that she expected the number
of HNWIs to increase in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya over the next
few years with as much as 28% growth in East Africa alone by 2017.


She said other African countries that have seen impressive rates of
growth include Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mozambique, South Sudan,
Tanzania and Uganda.

"I think in terms of the statistics that are shown on the wealth
potential in Africa - that are showing very positive trends - we at
Standard Bank believe those trends are vastly understated and the
potential is much bigger than what people think it is," she said.

To be included among this select group, HNWIs are defined as
individuals with the potential for net investable assets in excess of
$1m and Nienaber noted that their numbers increased 14% in South
Africa between 2007-08 and 2013 and grew as much as 24% in Kenya.

24-MAR-2014 Mixed Performance continues to be witnessed in Africa's Markets


Africa is certainly the least linear of continents. Interestingly, the
two year 'Bull Market' in Africa that we witnessed in 2012 and 2013,
was broad based. Shares rallied from Johannesburg to Nairobi, from
Accra to Lagos. And the reason for this was that international
investors were the precipitators of that rally and their overarching
aim was to raise their allocation, to get some skin in the game. This
proved a rising tide and floated a lot of boats.

This year there has been a great deal more differentiation, more nuance.



In its latest report, Beer on the Frontier: Opportunities for Brewers
in the African Continent, Rabobank analysts said Africa is expected to
see the largest increase in the legal drinking age population between
2013 and 2018, as birth rate in Latin America and Asia is due to slow.

At the same time, in Western Europe and North America, beer sales have
declined by between 5 and 10% since 1998 leading to "diseconomies of
scale and overcapacity for many local brewers".

The consumption of beer per capita is also set to increase globally,
with GDP levels expected to rise across the globe as mature markets
emerge from recession.

This effect, analysts have said, will be particularly significant in
Africa given its population's limited disposable incomes and the
relatively high price of beer.

The report said that an increase in wages in emerging markets such as
Africa will have a significantly greater effect on spending patterns
for beer than in mature markets, such as the US.

For example, in Tanzania, it takes the average worker just over five
hours of labour to earn a beer, while in the US it takes just 15

Any change in income in the US is unlikely to lead to change in beer
purchases beyond trading up and spending more money per beer, the
report said.

Rabobank Analyst, Francois Sonneville said: "Over the past few years,
brewers from mature, stagnating beer markets have been investing in
emerging markets.

"The favourite destinations have been the BRICs and Asia, but as these
countries mature growth rates are declining. Based on demographics and
economic developments, we believe that Africa will be the continent to
witness the fastest growth over the next five years."

Earlier this year SABMiller announced plans to invest £110 million to
triple production at its brewery in Nigeria.

African tycoon draws Nigeria, France into 'cement war' in Senegal


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Kenya orders Somali refugees back to camps after attacks
Kenyan Economy

Kenya on Tuesday ordered all Somali refugees living in urban areas to
return to their camps in a bid to end attacks by Islamist militants
carried out in retaliation for Kenya's intervention in neighboring

Interior Minister Joseph Ole Lenku issued the order citing "emergency
security challenges" in Kenyan towns, but the move is likely to be
criticized by rights groups which have discouraged similar actions in
the past.

Until now, refugees who could support themselves or were in need of
specialized education or medical care had been allowed to live in
urban areas.

Lenku said "all refugees residing outside the designated refugee camps
of Kakuma and Dadaab are hereby directed to return to their respective
camps with immediate effect" adding anyone who flouted the direction
would be prosecuted.

The refugees, around 1.1 million, are required to be housed at Dadaab,
close to the Somali border, and at Kakuma, near Kenya's frontier with
South Sudan.

Lenku also said all refugee registration centers in Nairobi, Mombasa,
Isiolo to the north and Nakuru in the northwest would be closed. He
urged Kenyans to report refugees or illegal immigrants found outside
the camps.

Kenyan security officials believe militants have used the refugee
camps as bases to prepare attacks and then mingled with residents in
urban areas to carry them out.


Asymmetric Risks remain potent.

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica #Nairobi Bureau on the 19th Floor


@SafaricomLtd said it may abandon its bid to acquire assets owned by
Essar Telecom Kenya Ltd. in the absence of regulatory clearance


A month after the Nairobi-based company requested clearance from the
Communications Authority of Kenya to make the acquisition, the
regulator has yet to acknowledge receipt of the application, Corporate
Affairs Director Nzioka Waita said in an interview in the city. CAK
Director-General Francis Wangusi declined to comment when Bloomberg
called him yesterday and didn't immediately respond to e-mailed

"For all concerned, this transaction was very time-bound," Waita said
March 24. "We are giving very serious consideration to pulling out for
the simple reason that the lack of regulatory certainty puts us in a
place where the key fundamentals of the transaction have changed."

Safaricom, 40 percent owned by Vodafone Plc (VOD), and rival Airtel
Kenya Ltd. may spend "in the hundreds of millions of dollars"
acquiring Essar, which operates Kenya's third-biggest mobile company,
according to Waita. Safaricom plans to buy Essar's network base
stations and transmission equipment. The regulator has demanded that
Safaricom improve its network quality before being granted a new
license. Airtel, the second-biggest operator, is set to take over
Essar's 2.75 million subscribers and licenses.

Essar Telecom, which is being sold after accumulating "substantial"
losses over the past six years, has also yet to hear from the
regulator, Chief Executive Officer Madhur Taneja said in a March 24
interview in Nairobi.

"We are yet to see any formal response coming from the Communications
Authority of Kenya to be able to understand how they are looking at
this transaction," Taneja said. "We also understand that the
application has not been put to the board."

Essar, Airtel and Safaricom currently have a memorandum of
understanding, though they have yet to sign a legally binding
agreement, Taneja said.

The delay in considering the deal by the authority may become
protracted because its board's term of office ends on April 2 and the
process of interviewing and reconstituting the Board has only "just
been kicked off" by the Ministry of Information and Communications
Technology, Waita said.

"The delay is surely disturbing" Essar's Taneja said. "Time is of the
essence in all such transactions because it sends anxiety to every

Before agreeing to a deal with Safaricom and Airtel, Essar approached
Orange SA (ORA), Emirates Telecommunications Corp. (ETISALAT), MTN
Group Ltd. (MTN) and a Vietnamese telecommunications company over the
past 18 months about a possible acquisition, Taneja said.

Airtel Kenya, owned by Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI), India's largest
mobile operator, declined to comment on the delay beyond a March 2
statement outlining its plans to take over Essar's subscribers, Airtel
spokesman Michael Okwiri said in an e-mail yesterday. Adding those
clients will boost Airtel's Kenyan market share to 26.4 percent from
17.6 percent, according to Bloomberg Industries.

Airtel will also bring in more than 100 of Essar's distributors, and
more than 5,000 mobile-money agents will become part of its network,
Taneja said. At least 185 of Essar Telecom's 220 employees will be
recruited by both Airtel and Safaricom after being handed severance
packages, he said.

Safaricom has a 67 percent share of Kenya's total mobile-phone market,
while it also controls 79 percent of voice traffic and 96 percent of
all mobile text messages, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
Industries. Shares in the company have advanced 14 percent this year
to 12.35 shillings at yesterday's close in Nairobi.

Essar Telecom, a unit of Mumbai, India-based Essar Group, began
operations in Kenya in December 2008 after purchasing Econet Wireless
Kenya Ltd. The company's market share fell to 8.3 percent in September
2013 from 9.6 percent a year earlier, according to the regulator.

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Nairobi Traffic Loses $570,000 a Day as No. 2 Africa Hub
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi's top traffic cop, Edward Mwamburi, called it the most
stressful day of the year: the last day of last month fell on a
Friday, meaning paychecks were banked and motorists were ready to
party. That made the city's clotted roads even more chaotic than

"People misbehave on the roads because they see things are haywire,
even people who want to be law-abiding," he said. "If road users can't
be considerate to us and each other, then they will never respect the

Mwamburi's frustration illustrates how the city is falling short in
creating a transport system to keep up with its growth, a fate matched
in rapidly urbanizing nations, says Jackie Klopp, an associate
research scholar at the Center for Sustainable Urban Development at
New York's Columbia University.

"It's a condition you see in many cities across Africa, Asia and South
America," Klopp said in a telephone interview. "It's a set of factors
that build to a perfect storm of traffic congestion. You're seeing the
1950s and 1960s idea that we saw in the United States and other
places, that you need to expand roads and things will move faster, but
more people get cars and that space is filled up."

Nairobi, the commercial hub of the second-fastest growing regional
economy in Africa, accounts for about two-thirds of Kenya's $41
billion annual economic output, which the government predicts will
grow 5.8 percent this year. The crowd is only growing. Kenya's
projected 4.3 percent annual rate of urbanization from 2010 to 2015,
when 12 million of its people will live in urban areas, is more than
double the global average of 2 percent and above the African average
of 3.6 percent, according to the United Nations.

The city's roads were the world's fourth-most congested, according to
International Business Machines Corp.'s Commuter Pain survey in 2011.
The World Health Organization estimates road accidents kill as many as
13,000 Kenyans a year. The government estimates that traffic jams cost
50 million shillings ($578,000) a day in lost productivity in the
city, a base for General Electric Co. (GE) and Google Inc. (GOOG) and
home to the UN's headquarters in Africa.

"Kenya is one of the most rapidly urbanizing places in the world,"
Andre Dzikus, coordinator of the urban basic services branch at the UN
Human Settlements Program, or UN-Habitat, said in an interview in
Nairobi. "Europe had 100 years to adjust to the number of vehicles and
urbanization that is happening in Africa over 10 or 20 years. So this
is taking people by surprise. The growth is much faster than how it
can be responded to."

The city has road capacity for a population one-third its current size
of 3.1 million -- a figure forecast to balloon to 40 million by 2050,
the equivalent of the entire country's current population, Nairobi
Governor Evans Kidero said in a Feb. 12 speech.

A more than doubling of the number of vehicles on Nairobi's roads
since 2012 to 700,000, hasn't been matched by "infrastructure and
traffic management" and the city must prepare for as many as 9 million
car users by 2050, Kidero said.

Efforts are under way to relieve some of the congestion. A freeway
designed to divert traffic from the congested city center is nearing

The UN's Dzikus says there still isn't enough pavement. Nairobi's
ratio of 11 percent of land dedicated to roads is below the 30 percent
yardstick referenced globally, he says.

Almost 85 percent of the city relies mainly on a fleet of 20,000
privately owned minibuses known as matatus that spew diesel and are
notorious for disregarding highway laws.

"People misbehave on the roads because they see things are haywire,
even people who want to be law-abiding," Mwamburi said.

read more

Kenya will import 4 million tonnes of Iranian crude oil per year following the signing of a bilateral pact with Tehran a move expected to solve the countries' supply chain constraints in gas and oil.
Kenyan Economy

National Bank reports FY EPS 2013 +52.63% Earnings here


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           31.75
Total Shares Issued:          280000000.00
Market Capitalization:        8,890,000,000
EPS:             2.32
PE:               13.685

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 31st December 2012

FY EPS  earnings per share rose to 2.32 shillings versus 1.52
shillings in 2012 +52.63%
FY dividend per share was raised to 0.33 shillings from 0.20 shillings +65%

Commentary via Reuters


National Bank of Kenya posted a 57 percent jump in pretax profit to
1.81 billion shillings ($20.88 million) last year and its plans to
raise capital from shareholders are on track, it said on Wednesday.
Munir Ahmed, the bank's managing director, told an investor briefing
the bank plans to add seven new branches, to appoint 1,400 agents
across the country and to launch new cash points as well as Internet
and mobile phone-based banking.
"We are increasing our capital by way of a rights issue ... (by) 10 to
13 billion shillings." he told an investor briefing.
The bank said its provisions for bad debts dropped to 288 million
shillings during the year from 726 million shillings.
During the year under review, National ventured into new business
segments like bancassurance, investment and corporate banking, Ahmed

South African food company Tiger Brands has dropped plans to acquire
Kenyan firms Rafiki Millers and Magic Oven Bakeries, the firm said on
Tuesday, terminating deals worth at least R271 million.


Tiger Brands, which has been on an aggressive expansion in sub-Saharan
Africa in recent years, said in a statement the acquisitions had been
called off by "mutual agreement between the parties".

It did not give further details and a spokesman was not immediately
available for comment.

REA Vipingo Suitor Plans Legal Action After Bid Is Disqualified


Vania Investment Pool, one of three companies seeking to acquire
Kenyan sisal producer REA Vipingo Plantations Ltd., plans to take
legal action after the regulator disqualified its offer, director
Dilesh Bid said.

VIP, as the company is known, had it's bid rejected yesterday by the
Capital Markets Authority because it was submitted after a Feb. 28
deadline, Bid said in a phone interview yesterday from the capital,
Nairobi. Antony Mwangi, a spokesman for the authority, declined to
comment when contacted by phone and didn't immediately respond to
e-mailed questions.

"We will seek legal redress for this injustice," Bid said. "CMA ruled
us out arguing that our bid was time barred."

VIP offered 80 shillings ($0.92) per share for REA Vipingo, according
to Bid. That trumped offers by Centum Investment Co., Kenya's biggest
publicly traded investment company, of 75 shillings a share, and 70
shillings by REA Vipingo's main shareholder, REA Trading Ltd.

VIP submitted its latest offer, which had been raised from 55
shillings, "in early March," Bid said.

Rea Vipingo was suspended from trading on the Nairobi Securities
Exchange in November after REA Trading made an initial cash offer to
acquire Africa's biggest grower of sisal, which is used to make rope
and dartboards. The stock last traded at 27.50 shillings, for a market
value of 1.65 billion shillings.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros


British journalist declared a 'subversive' faces deportation from Kenya


Immigration officials presented the court with a letter signed by
Kenya's interior secretary, Joseph ole Lenku, saying she has been
declared a "prohibited immigrant".

An official told the court: "Confidential reports indicate that the
applicant has been engaged in subversive activities against the Kenyan
government and therefore her presence in Kenya is contrary to national

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.912% 2014 This is an All Time High


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.12% 2014


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


Kenya: Big banks run the show via Ecobank Research

·         Based on the FY2013 results, we have noticed that the top
Tier 1 banks in Kenya are continuing to flex their pricing power in
the market, to the disadvantage of smaller players.
·         At the close of FY2013, the six Tier 1 banks (namely KCB,
Equity Bank, Standard Chartered, Co-operative Bank, Barclays and
CfCStanbic) accounted for 72% of total industry interest income and
only 42% of total industry interest expenses.
·         So while the remaining 37 Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks grew their
market share from 44% in FY2012 to 45.7% in FY2013 in total assets
terms, they continue to pay a heavy price in funding their balance
·         This stems from the primary fact that they generally have
weak distribution and retail deposit franchises compared to their Tier
1 counterparts and consequently lack the necessary pricing power
especially on the foreign currency side (which is normally
characterised by high value big-ticket transactions).
·         Additionally, Tier 1 banks have also invested heavily on
technology and continue to operate at greater efficiencies than the
Tier 2 and Tier 3 names.

read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.179% to close at 144.99 and the All
Share has set a Record High for the 2nd consecutive session.
The Nairobi All Share is 6.103% ahead in 2014.
The Nairobi NSE20 edged 4.81 points lower to close at 4969.24. The
NSE20 has been very circumspect about the 5,000 level, a level that it
held above for most of January this Year.
Equity Turnover was brisk at 923.764m and considerably more than twice
the previous days turnover.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee was the biggest Winner at the exchange and
rallied 3.8% to close at 17.75 and traded 35,700 shares. Sasini Tea is
+21.16% in  2014.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed 0.8% to close at 12.45 and traded 15.823m shares
worth 197.413m. Bloomberg News carried a very insightful Interview
with Corporate Affairs Director Nzioka Waita.

Mr. Waita informed us that a month after Safaricom requested clearance
from the Communications Authority of Kenya to make the Essar Kenya
acquisition, the regulator has yet to acknowledge receipt of the

"For all concerned, this transaction was very time-bound," Waita said
March 24. "We are giving very serious consideration to pulling out for
the simple reason that the lack of regulatory certainty puts us in a
place where the key fundamentals of the transaction have changed."

"The delay is surely disturbing" Essar's Taneja said. "Time is of the
essence in all such transactions because it sends anxiety to every

Safaricom is +14.74% in 2014 and all set to test its all time closing
High of 12.60 as early as next week.

Nation Media closed unchanged at 309.00 and traded 167,200 shares
worth 51.669m. It was good to speak with the CEO Linus Gitahi today
and I am infinitely better informed. Nation Media reported a +2.4% FY
PBT Acceleration and LG said they took a Bad Debt charge worth 1
shilling 64 cents of Earning per Share. This is related to payment due
for services rendered to the IEBC. he is fully confident this gets
written back. Nation has an outstanding Old and New Media Footprint
and Real estate and the 20% dividend Hike is a confident statement of
its own.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

National Bank released Full Year 2013 Earnings FY Earnings Per Share
rose 52.63% to 2.32 shillings and the FY Dividend as increased 65%.
Munir Ahmed, the bank's managing director, told an investor briefing

"We are increasing our capital by way of a rights issue  (by) 10 to 13
billion shillings."

National Bank eased 2.36% to close at 31.00 and traded 148,100 shares.
Investors have turned defensive in those stocks where Management has
already telegraphed a Liquidity Event [KenGen and Uchumi refer].
National Bank has returned 7.82% in 2014.

Standard Chartered firmed 1.59% to close at 318.00 and was trading at
session highs of 320.00 +2.24% at the Closing Bell. Standard Chartered
has bounced 3.246% over 2 Trading Sessions and since the Release of
its FY 2013 Earnings. It was a pleasure meeting the CEO Lamin Manjang
yesterday and I thank the British High Commissioner for the
Serendipity that he creates at his Dinner Table, for that
introduction. Standard Chartered is +4.605% in 2014 and the path of
least resistance for the price is definitely higher. Standard
Chartered had 10 Buyers for every Seller at the Finish line signalling
further upside traction.

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 3rd at the Exchange and eased 0.5347% to
close at 46.50 and traded 2.745m shares worth 127.742m. Kenya
Commercial Bank was overdue some profit taking after a more than 6%
Rally since the Full Year Earnings Release through this morning.

Barclays Bank strengthened 1.21% to close at 16.70 on good volume of
1.103m shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 4 versus 1 at
the Finale.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL eased 0.37% to close at 269.00 and was the most actively traded
share at the Securities Exchange with 871,000 shares worth 235.141m
changing hands.

Rabobank issued an interesting Report ''Beer on the Frontier:
Opportunities for Brewers'' which has caught some attention. Rabobank
said "The favourite destinations have been the BRICs and Asia, but as
these countries mature growth rates are declining. Based on
demographics and economic developments, we believe that Africa will be
the continent to witness the fastest growth over the next five years."

And this remains the very positive backdrop for EABL and why the
decision to leverage the Balance Sheet near term in order to steepen
the medium term Growth Curve is the right one. You want EABL to be
chasing growth at this moment.  EABL has rebounded 22.831% since
closing at a 52 week Low in February and weak longs were washed out in
February, in my opinion.

BAT eased 0.31% to close at 633.00 and traded 130,300 shares worth
82.479m and all at that level. BAT is +5.5% in 2014 and Investors are
surely anticipating the Payment of the Full Year Dividend which is
worth 5.29% of yield at the current Price.

Athi River Cement firmed 1.685% to close at 90.50 and traded solid
volume of 402,300 shares. ARM is +0.55% in 2014 and releases Earnings
before the end of the month.
East African Portland retreated 7.14% to close at 97.50 and after
releasing its First Half results. East African Portland is
nevertheless still +41.3% in 2014 and the correction is expected to be
shallow, in fact.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2014

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