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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 27th of March 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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This is #Africa 's Century Amb Sec Gen @RSezibera
Africa


I am looking forward to hosting the Sec Gen of the EAC Dr. Richard
Sezibera at #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi this Saturday 29th March

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Dr. Richard Sezibera @rsezibera Wikipedia
Africa


Richard Sezibera (born June 5, 1964 in Kigali, Rwanda) is a Rwandan
physician, politician, diplomat and civil servant. He is the current
Secretary General of the East African Community. He was appointed to
that position by the East African Community Heads of State on 19 April
2011 for a five-year term.[1]

Sezibera received his early education in Burundi. In 1984, he entered
Makerere University Medical School in Kampala, Uganda, graduating with
the degree of Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery (MBChB) in
1989. Later, he obtained the degree of Master of Arts (MA) in Liberal
Studies from Georgetown University in the United States.[2]
Work experience[edit]

Following his graduation at Makerere University, he worked at Mbuya
Hospital in Kampala, Uganda, before transferring to Mbale Regional
Referral Hospital in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. Sometime prior to 1994, he
joined the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF), as a field medical officer.
He rose to the rank of Major within the RPF. In July 1994, Dr.
Sezibera was appointed Physician to the President of the Republic of
Rwanda. In this position, he concurrently served as military aide to
the President of Rwanda. In 1995, he became a Member of Parliament. He
was elected President of the Parliamentary Commission on Social
Affairs, which exercised oversight over the government departments
mandated to deal with issues of health. In 1999, he was appointed
Ambassador of Rwanda to the United States of America, with concurrent
accreditation to Mexico, Argentina and Brazil.[3] In 2008, Dr.
Sezibera was appointed Minister of Health in the Rwandan cabinet, a
position he held until he was appointed East African Community
Secretary General.

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“I am committed to work for the East African people, it makes me very proud and courageous,” Dr @RSezibera April 2011
Africa


"East Africa (comprising Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi)
will be attractive, partly because it is doing more than most other
African regions to become integrated, thereby facilitating easier
cross-border activity and attracting investors" Ernst & Young (EY)

Intra-EAC trade has been rising since 2002. “Since launch of the
Customs Union, and subsequently the Common Market, intra-EAC trade has
increased from about $2 billion in 2005 to $5.5 billion in 2012,”
reads the EAC document.

The geographical region encompassed by the EAC covers an area of
1,820,664 square kilometres (702,962 sq mi), with a combined
population of about 149,959,317[1] (2013 est.)[8]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Community

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#Mindspeak is held at the InterContinental Nairobi
Africa


This Year alone we have had some real heavyweight and wonderful Guests
from Madam Christine @Lagarde the MD of the IMF, Dr. Titus Naikuni CEO
@KenyaAirways and Charles Ireland CEO EABL.

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#Mindspeak 2014 RICH TV
Africa


I thank Charles Ireland of EABL for an excellent Dinner last night. I
thoroughly enjoy Charles's company and conversation which ranged from
a Chinese Fellow in a remote part of China who turns out to be the
single biggest Buyer of Johnnie Walker Blue label. And one day they
all go to visit to see what and who this Fellow is. And he leads them
down a few side streets and eventually to a warehouse and there they
discover this veritable Stash of Johnnie Walker Blue. It turns out he
was a Bunker-Hunt type of Fellow looking to put the squeeze and create
a corner!

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This is my Favourite Photograph of Charles .
Africa


Charles was a Brilliant Guest at #Mindspeak

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#Mindspeak with Charles Ireland CEO EABL @TuskerLager #twendekazi @YouTube RICH TV
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“We're a crowd, a swarm. We think in groups, travel in armies. Armies
carry the gene for self-destruction. One bomb is never enough. The
blur of technology, this is where the oracles plot their wars. Because
now comes the introversion. Father Teilhard knew this, the omega
point. A leap out of our biology. Ask yourself this question. Do we
have to be human forever? Consciousness is exhausted. Back now to
inorganic matter. This is what we want. We want to be stones in a
field.”
― Don DeLillo

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Honour guards prepare for China's President Xi Jinping at the Lyon Saint-Exupery Airport. Xi is in France for a three-day state visit. Photograph: Jeff Pachoud/AFP/Getty Images
Law & Politics


Power shake: President Barack Obama shakes hands with the EU
council president, Herman Van Rompuy, and the EU commission president
José Manuel Barroso in Brussels. Photograph: Virginia Mayo/AP

http://www.theguardian.com/news/gallery/2014/mar/26/photo-highlights-of-the-day

 "This is not another cold war that we're entering into. The United
States and Nato do not seek any conflict with Russia," Obama said.
"Now is not the time for bluster … There are no easy answers, no
military solution."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/26/obama-no-cold-war-crimea

Putin has been in charge of Russia since 1999. He is arguably the most
effective leader in the world today @newtgingrich to @CNN

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/25/opinion/gingrich-putin-mind/index.html

The Obama administration's foreign policy, meanwhile, has variously
offered Putin a "reset" photo op, likened him to a "slouch ... like
that bored kid sitting in the back of the classroom," and most
recently, uttered meaningless protests while he annexed the territory
of a sovereign state. Monday's cancellation of the G8 summit in Sochi,
Russia, was really the minimum that could be done. Of course the
United States and its allies could not go forward with the meeting as
if nothing had happened.

The symbolic, tactical approach which is the hallmark of the Obama
foreign policy is dangerous, delusional and utterly incapable of
understanding or coping with a serious leader like Putin.

Indeed, there is a growing danger that the combination of strong words
and weak actions (the essence of symbolic liberalism) will lead Putin
to believe he can continue to incrementally rebuild the Russian Empire
by gradually absorbing various pieces around the periphery.

The Chinese, like the leaders of many countries, are very happy to see
the United States once again embroiled in a fight which undermines
American credibility, absorbs the attention of American leaders, and
accomplishes nothing. It is very hard to see how a sanctions regime is
going to seriously impact Putin.

Putin is also setting the stage for a series of ethnic crises around
the periphery. Note his claim that the "Russian nation became one of
the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be
divided by borders."

You can produce a map of the ethnic borderlands and have a pretty good
sense of where there may be future efforts to reunite Russians with
Russia and to "protect" Russians from repression. Trans-Dniester,
eastern Ukraine, part of Kazakhstan, Byelorussia and Estonia become
the most obvious opportunities for conflict.

Putin's Latest Dirty Trick: Leaking Private Phone Calls Eli Lake  @EliLake

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/26/why-is-russia-leaking-all-these-private-phone-calls.html

In the last seven weeks, intercepted phone conversations between
Western and Ukrainian officials have mysteriously surfaced on the
Internet. U.S. intelligence officials tell The Daily Beast these phone
recordings are part of a deliberate Russian strategy to collect and
publicize the private conversations of their adversaries.

It started in the first week of February. As Ukraine’s political
elites were scrambling to form a new government, a recording of a
cellphone call emerged between Victoria Nuland, the U.S. assistant
secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, and Geoffrey
Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. The intercept featured Nuland
privately saying, “Fuck the EU,” and disclosed the preferences of two
senior U.S. diplomats for who should serve in Ukraine’s interim
government.

A month later, a phone call between European Union foreign policy
chief Catherine Ashton and Estonia’s foreign minister Urmas Paet
appeared on the Internet. In the conversation, Paet discussed a theory
that the snipers who fired on demonstrators in Ukraine may have been
anti-Russian provocateurs.

This Monday, a third private phone call suddenly appeared on the Web.
This time it was Yulia Tymeshenko, the former Ukrainian prime
minister, saying, “It’s about time we grabbed our guns and killed
those damned Russians together with their leader.”

“We see them engaged in counter-information campaigns,” said Mike
Rogers, the Republican chairman of the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence. “They are very aggressive, they are using
old style thuggery, cut-your-ear-off KGB tactics and they are using
this leaking of collected information to their advantage.”

U.S. Oil Boom Shifts Alliance as Obama Visits Saudi King

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/obama-visits-saudi-king-as-u-s-oil-boom-shifts-alliance.html

When Barack Obama sits down tomorrow with Saudi Arabia’s King
Abdullah, he’ll do so knowing the U.S. is importing the least crude in
two decades, a shift changing America’s strongest relationship in the
Arab world.

Five years after Obama’s first visit to Riyadh, the drilling of shale
oil fields from North Dakota to Texas has put the U.S. on the path to
energy independence, weakening economic interdependence between the
two nations as they work through disagreements on Syria and Iran.

“The global picture for Saudi Arabia has changed fundamentally as a
result of the growth of unconventional oil in the U.S.,” said Valerie
Marcel, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a think-tank in London.
“Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf exporters are turning their
attention eastward and that has an impact on how they see the West.”

“Because of its emerging energy independence, the U.S. may pursue
policies that are not favorable to the Saudis,” said Theodore Karasik,
director of research at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military
Analysis in Dubai. “It explains partially the overture to Iran.”

During his meeting with King Abdullah, Obama will discuss U.S. support
for Gulf security, Iran, Syria and Israeli-Palestinian peace talks,
Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said at a March 21
briefing.

For Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers, the shale boom is
accelerating the redirection of oil shipments toward Asia. China,
which overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest oil importer in
September last year, is becoming an increasingly important customer.
It imported 53.9 million tons of Saudi crude in 2013, or about 1
million barrels a day. That’s 28 percent more than in 2009, according
to Chinese customs data.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia with Barack Obama

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2010/12/1/1291220063031/Barack-Obama-King-Abdulla-006.jpg

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3792
Dollar Index 80.02
Japan Yen 102.21 The yen weakened 0.2 percent to 102.21 per dollar,
after earlier touching 101.72, the strongest since March 19
Swiss Franc 0.8850
Pound 1.6577 Sterling has appreciated 10 percent in the past year, the
best performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes.
Aussie 0.9240 Australia’s dollar gained 0.2 percent to 92.40 U.S.
cents from yesterday, when it reached 92.45, the highest since Nov.
22. The currency is up 3.1 percent over the past month.
India Rupee 60.15
South Korea Won 1071.45
Brazil Real 2.2958 The real appreciated 0.4 percent to 2.3029 per U.S.
dollar at the close of trading in Sao Paulo, the strongest level on a
closing basis since Nov. 26.
Egypt Pound 6.9624
South Africa Rand 10.6897

The yen strengthened 2.1 percent in the past three months against nine
other developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar lost 1.1 percent, while the
euro declined 0.8 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.02

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track
the greenback against currencies of six U.S. trading partners, was
little changed at 80.023 after rising to 80.192 on March 20, the
highest close in three weeks.

The dollar “has struggled to extend” gains after last week’s Fed
meeting, Niall O’Connor, a New York-based technical analyst at
JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in an e-mailed note to clients. “While the
lack of upside implies the window for a further upside has closed a
bit, note the retracement has developed with a corrective bias.”

The focus for the gauge will be resistance around 80.58 to 80.88,
which contains Fibonacci retracement levels of its decline from a high
of 81.388 on Jan. 21 to a trough of 79.268 on March 13, O’Connor
wrote. Resistance is a level where there may be orders to sell an
asset.

Australia Dollar 3 month Chart INO 0.9240 [highest since Nov 22]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3792

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track
the greenback against currencies of six U.S. trading partners, was
little changed at 80.023 after rising to 80.192 on March 20, the
highest close in three weeks.

The dollar “has struggled to extend” gains after last week’s Fed
meeting, Niall O’Connor, a New York-based technical analyst at
JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in an e-mailed note to clients. “While the
lack of upside implies the window for a further upside has closed a
bit, note the retracement has developed with a corrective bias.”

The focus for the gauge will be resistance around 80.58 to 80.88,
which contains Fibonacci retracement levels of its decline from a high
of 81.388 on Jan. 21 to a trough of 79.268 on March 13, O’Connor
wrote. Resistance is a level where there may be orders to sell an
asset.

Australia Dollar 3 month Chart INO 0.9240 [highest since Nov 22]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 3 month Chart INO 1302.715

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 100.37 [Looking to resell]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for May delivery was at $100.33 a barrel, up 7 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:44 p.m.
Seoul time. The contract gained $1.07 to $100.26 yesterday, the
highest settlement since March 19. The volume of all futures traded
was about 43 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 1.9
percent this year.

read more


White House’s Sell Russian Stocks Recommendation Flopping
Emerging Markets


Equities are bouncing back in Moscow after President Vladimir Putin’s
push to annex Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula sparked the worst standoff
with the U.S. since the end of the Cold War and sent the Micex into a
bear market. The gauge is up 9.1 percent from a four-year low reached
March 14 as traders bet the sanctions imposed by President Barack
Obama and his European counterparts don’t go far enough to curb growth
in the world’s biggest energy-exporting nation.

Frontier Markets

read more


"Africa has the world’s fastest-growing population and is projected to account for more than 40% of the global population growth in 2030," Mr Obayomi said.
Africa


Africa: Crude Refining in Africa - the Way Forward

http://allafrica.com/stories/201403260357.html

There are a total of 42 refineries in Africa, with a total name-plate
capacity of 3,217,600 barrels per day (bpd). The major refining
countries are Egypt with 9 refineries (774,900 bpd); Algeria with 5
refineries (303,700 bpd); Libya with 5 refineries (380,000 bpd); South
Africa with 4 refineries (545,000); and Nigeria with 3 refineries
(445,000 bpd).

More than half (i.e. 51.7%) of Africa's refining capacity is in North
Africa. According to McKinsey's database, most of these are
State-Owned (59%). 29% are based on joint ownership with government
and 12% are joint-venture arrangements between International Oil
Companies (IOC's).

These national refineries operate at different levels of efficiency.
Considering data of average national capacity utilizations from
2006-2009 (Oil & Gas Journal refineries survey), the efficiency levels
for these countries are: Egypt (81%), Algeria (94%), Libya (87%),
South Africa (85%), and Nigeria (18%).s

In the past 20 years, only 3 Greenfield refineries have been
constructed in Africa. These were built in Adrar (Algeria) and
Khartoum (Sudan) with China National Petroleum Company (CNPC)
partnering with the governments, with capacities of 13,000 bpd and
100,000 bpd respectively.

The third one was built in Alexandria (Egypt) by Egypt General
Petroleum Corporation, Egypt's national oil company (NOC) with a
capacity of 100,000 bpd. Planned new builds were constructed by
Petrochina at Ndjamena (Chad) and Zinder (Niger) with same 20,000 bpd
capacity. The third is being constructed by Sonangol, Angola's NOC at
Lobito (Angola) with a capacity of 200,000 bpd. From the foregoing,
refining in Africa is led by NOC's, and new investments are dominated
by the Chinese National Petroleum Companies.

The capital outlay for any 100,000 barrel per day (bpd) refinery is
about $1.5 billion, while a 24,000 bpd modular refinery is roughly
$250m.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.01% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.6855

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

In a nationally televised speech, Sisi appeared in his military
uniform, saying that it was the last time he would wear it because he
was giving it up "to defend the nation" by running for president.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4503702,00.html

He said he was "responding to a call from the people."

In his address Wednesday night, Sissi gave a campaign-style speech,
promising he intended to build a "modern and democratic Egypt." He
spoke of the challenges facing the country, including millions of
unemployed and a "weak economy."

In an apparent goodwill gesture despite the crackdown, he promised "no
exclusion ... I extend my hand to all at home and abroad - all those
who have not been convicted."

"There will be no personal score-settling," he said.

Sisi warned he could not perform "miracles" in a country of 85 million
that is steeped in poverty. "I cannot make miracles. Rather, I propose
hard work and self-denial," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-egypt-sisi-idUSBREA2P0XE20140326

He said, "We must be truthful with ourselves. Our country faces great
challenges. Our economy is weak. There are millions of youths who
suffer from unemployment in Egypt."

There were reminders of the instability on Wednesday, when one student
was killed in protests at Cairo University that were ignited by a
court's decision on Monday to sentence 529 members of the Muslim
Brotherhood to death.

Almost the entire leadership of the Brotherhood is in jail. Mursi
faces charges that could lead to the death penalty.

The public prosecutor on Wednesday ordered 919 Brotherhood members to
stand trial on charges including murder and terrorism in the southern
province of Minya, the same province where Monday's verdicts were
handed down.

"If (Sisi) doesn't have a real plan for reconciliation, he certainly
will fail. But I don't know if he will be able to do it," said Hassan
Nafaa, a professor of political science at Cairo University.

If the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe
votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2001.pdf

Mohamed Morsi

http://fbcdn-photos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/t1.0-0/10151210_10152012561000547_1812068783_n.jpg

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9620

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +25.90% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -7.75% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Nigeria’s incoming central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele said a
devaluation of the naira would be “devastating” for the economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-26/nigeria-s-senate-confirms-emefiele-as-central-bank-governor.html

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange-rate policy is correct and the
regulator needs to ensure Africa’s largest oil producer has a strong
currency, Emefiele said in his first public comments since being
nominated by President Goodluck Jonathan to the position.

“This is an import dependent economy,” Emefiele, 52, told a Senate
hearing today in the capital, Abuja, before the upper house of
parliament approved his appointment. “Devaluation is not an option.”

Emefiele, chief executive officer of Zenith Bank Plc, will succeed
Lamido Sanusi, 52, whose suspension by Jonathan last month prompted
the currency to drop to a record low as investors worried that the
independence of the central bank will be compromised. That increased
speculation policy makers will devalue the currency by lowering the
midpoint of the naira peg from 155 per dollar in the face of dwindling
foreign-currency reserves.

Nigeria’s reserves have declined 13 percent this year to $37.9 billion
as of March 24. The naira has dropped 2.8 percent against the dollar
on the interbank market in the period.

The decline in foreign-exchange reserves is due to a “speculative
attack,” Emefiele said.

KFC Follows Nigerian Fast Food Pioneer in African Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/kfc-follows-nigerian-fast-food-pioneer-in-african-growth.html

When investment banker Ebele Enunwa moved to Nigeria’s oil industry
hub more than a decade ago, he was distraught by a lack of places he
wanted to eat.

To tackle the problem, he raised $1 million from banks and friends to
open a chain of fast-food outlets called Kilimanjaro -- named for
Africa’s highest peak -- in 2004.

Now, competitors including Yum! Brands Inc., Domino’s Pizza Inc. and
Johnny Rockets International are following suit and opening outlets,
while McDonald’s Corp. says it’s eyeing opportunities in Africa’s most
populous country. The chains are staking claim to an industry that has
grown more than 10 percent annually this decade despite operating in a
nation where chicken imports are banned, power supply is unreliable
and a meal costs more than most people make in a day.

Outside of the Nigerian business hub of Lagos, “the fast-food industry
is seriously underserved,” Enunwa said in an interview. “There is so
much more to bite out of.”

Global expansion has been key for Yum. The KFC owner generates about a
quarter of its revenue from its international business unit and posted
system sales growth from the division that was twice as fast as the
whole last quarter.

KFC, which sells Nigerians fish burgers and vegetable fried rice in
addition to the chicken that made it famous, is currently the biggest
international rival, having opened 25 restaurants since first entering
in 2009. Domino’s and Cold Stone Creamery followed in 2012 and now
plan to add about five outlets a year across the country and Lagos.

Nigeria “presents opportunities in the form of substantially less
penetration than developed markets and the ability to establish a
dominant brand and market share,” said Sara Senatore, a New York-based
analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

The fast-food chains are building on the industry that Enunwa helped
pioneer with Kilimanjaro, which he used to evoke images of the “top of
Africa.” Since quitting IBTC to sell beans and dodo, a local fried
plantains dish, he’s turned Kilimanjaro into a chain of 13 outlets and
plans another four this year. The Cornell University hospitality
school graduate says he aims to capture a “significant” share of the
market, despite the foreign competition, and may sell shares to the
public one day.

First, he’s got to sell more food. These days, a meal at Kilimanjaro
is still a luxury for most Nigerians. While oil wealth in Africa’s top
producer tripled Nigerian gross domestic product per capita over the
past decade, most Nigerians live on less than $1.25 a day, or about
206 Naira, World Bank estimates show. A typical customer spends about
four times that much each time they visit Kilimanjaro, Enunwa said.

“Overall, low poverty still restricts the number of international
chains that can enter, since modern fast-food prices are quite
expensive and beyond the reach of most,” said Euromonitor analyst
Victor-Serge Ajibola.

That means only a lucky few are tucking into Kilimanjaro’s pounded
yam, edikaikong -- a local soup -- and catfish combo meal, which goes
for 1,170 Naira, about seven dollars, and can be ordered online for
in-store pickup or delivery. At KFC, a three-piece chicken meal with
fries or rice and a drink costs 1,800 naira, or nearly $11.

“We are definitely not affordable to the majority of the population,
but we hope in time to be able to reduce our cost base so we can pass
on a reduced price,” said Bruce Layzell, Yum’s general manager for new
African markets.

Part of the reason for the relatively high prices in Nigeria is that
the country bans chicken imports -- to help support its nascent
poultry industry -- and packaging. That means all of KFC’s wings have
to be sourced locally in a country that lacks an industrialized farm
system of scale and the infrastructure to reliably get meat to
restaurants before rotting.

Another cost is one of the greatest attractions to customers:
generators to keep the lights on and the free WiFi humming at the
chains’ air-conditioned eateries in a nation fraught with chronic
blackouts.

Layzell said it costs twice as much to open a Nigerian KFC than a
South African one, but that exponential growth on the continent is
going to come from outside of South Africa, which is already KFC’s
fifth-biggest market.

The challenges of Nigeria aren’t deterring Domino’s and Cold Stone,
which have a combined 15 shops currently dotted around Lagos, said
Jean-Claude Meyer, who runs the local franchises in Nigeria.

“In 20 years’ time, we expect to be in every corner of the country,”
Meyer said, though currently they are focused on Lagos. He called the
current expansion plan “pretty conservative” for a country with a
population that is more than half the United States.

For now, Enunwa thinks his competitors’ focus on Lagos means he sees
more opportunity for Kilimanjaro expanding to regions away from the
heaving metropolis of Lagos.

“People say they’re a threat,” said Enunwa. “I say let them come. I
think everybody will find space.”

read more



12-SEP-2011 Kentucky Fried Chicken Makes The Bull Case The Star
Africa


Sometimes, I meet folks who tell me;

‘Aly-Khan there is no scale in Africa.’

I am going to put them in the car and buy them lunch at KFC.

Mo Ibrahim said the following to the American investor community last year;

“Guys, you Americans are lazy investors. There’s so much growth here
but you want to float in the shallow water of the Dow Jones or
Nasdaq.”

KFC proves his point.

The kwacha, which slid to a record 6.44 per dollar on March 19, has
rebounded 3.6 percent since Zambian policy makers scrapped laws to
ease dollar shortages and took steps to reduce liquidity in the
banking system.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/zambia-on-kwacha-damage-control-before-bond-sale-africa-credit.html

While the kwacha is Africa’s best performer since then, it remains 11
percent weaker this year, second only to Ghana’s cedi among 24
currencies monitored by Bloomberg.

The nation, which sold Eurobonds in September 2012 with yields
reaching 5.16 percent that month, may pay as much as 9 percent to sell
debt now amid lower copper prices and a fiscal deficit, said Chris
Becker, a market strategist at ETM Analytics.

“They’re going to be trying to market the bonds on the back foot,” he
said by phone from Johannesburg yesterday. “It’s a risky one. They’re
going to pay up.”

Yields on Zambia’s dollar securities, which rose to a record 8.33
percent on March 20, fell 22 basis points to 7.95 percent yesterday.
The notes lost 3.4 percent in 2014, the continent’s worst-performing
dollar debt after Ghana, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch
indexes.

The landlocked nation, which borders eight countries and relies on
copper for about 70 percent of its export earnings, said in October it
may issue as much as $1 billion of Eurobonds, hiring Deutsche Bank AG
and Barclays Plc in January to lead the sale. The issuance will be the
first since the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced its bond-purchase
program. Ghana, which planned to sell its third Eurobond in April,
delayed the program because of rising interest rates.

Zambia’s planned sale comes after the last two Treasury bill auctions
failed, with the central bank raising a combined 186 million kwacha
($31 million) of the 1.2 billion kwacha on offer. It also follows a
credit affirmation by Fitch Ratings on March 21, which kept the
nation’s debt at B, five levels below investment grade, after cutting
it one level last year.

Officials start in Los Angeles today before ending their roadshow in
London on April 3 and 4, according to a person with knowledge of the
offering who asked not to be identified because they were not
authorized to speak publicly.

Zambia’s second dollar-debt sale probably won’t be as successful as
its first, which attracted bids of about $12 billion for the $500
million it initially offered, according to Sashi Kumi, a credit and
fixed-income trader with Nedbank Capital in London.

“I don’t envision investor appetite will be as strong as last time
round,” Kumi said in reply to e-mailed questions yesterday. “I think
that they would have to bring this issue at around the 8.5 percent
level to attract investor interest.”

“It’s like fixing a leaking roof with a small cup,” he said. “The Bank
of Zambia, to be honest, doesn’t have the money to plug this hole.”

President Michael Sata, 76, has focused on developing roads and
railways in the $21 billion economy, which combined with pay increases
for civil servants and fuel and corn subsidies swelled the budget
deficit to a forecast 8.5 percent of gross domestic product last year.
While Sata implemented a two-year wage freeze for state employees in
October and has removed corn aid, finances are still under pressure
from an 11 percent drop in copper this year, with prices reaching a
four-year low on March 13.

“We are circumspect of the central bank’s ability to achieve exchange
rate and price stability while fiscal policy is decidedly
expansionary,” Irmgard Erasmus, a fixed-income analyst at Paarl, South
Africa-based NKC Independent Economists, said in an e-mailed reply to
questions yesterday. Short-term measures will have a limited effect
and the “government needs to address the large recurrent expenditures”
in its budget, she said.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.38% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Portuguese living abroad have increased remittances home, up 9.6%, to
a total of  €3 billion “for the first time ever” revealed  the Bank of
Portugal, the nation’s central bank.

http://portuguese-american-journal.com/2013-portuguese-emigrants-increased-their-remittances-home-portugal/

Portuguese speaking Africa accounted for €316 million, up 13.6%, in
remittances from Portuguese emigrants, compared to last year.  Angola
registered a 12.4% increase in remittances to a total of  €304
million, while Mozambique contributed with €7.5 million in
remittances, up 51%, compared to 2012.

Kulczyk looks to Africa for new frontier in transformation @FT Subscriber

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1d94126-b419-11e3-a09a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2x3aja1en

Poland is forecast to have one of the EU’s strongest economic
recoveries but growth of 2.9 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent in
2015 is not enough to excite Jan Kulczyk, the country’s wealthiest
businessman.
Instead, Mr Kulczyk – worth about $3.7bn according to Forbes magazine
– is looking to Africa, a fast-growing market where he feels that
Polish companies can benefit from the country’s quarter-century of
experience with economic transformation.

Mr Kulczyk’s investment firm is looking for gas off the east and west
coasts of Africa through Ophir Energy, in which his Kulczyk
Investments holds a 9.6 per cent stake.

In all he has invested $1.1bn in Africa, also buying a gold mine in
Namibia, a coal mine in Mozambique, fertiliser production in Nigeria,
iron ore in Congo-Brazzaville and gasfields in Tanzania. Kulczyk
Investments says the African investments are profitable, but will not
reveal figures.

“It’s not going to be easy, but the greatest successes are where the
challenges are the greatest and where a lot of work is to be done,” he
says. “That’s where you can dream of double-digit returns, while today
the European economy is only growing at about 1 per cent.”

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 6.1 per cent this year and
by 5.8 per cent in 2015, according to the IMF.

Mr Kulczyk has roped several other Polish tycoons into an initiative
aimed at boosting Poland’s presence in Africa which, aside from Mr
Kulczyk, is marginal. Trade between Poland and the whole continent
came to only 1 per cent of Poland’s trade turnover, although it did
grow at a 16 per cent pace in 2012.

Mr Kulczyk made the bulk of his fortune by acting as an intermediary
in some of the largest privatisations of Polish state-owned companies
in the early 1990s.

However, he ran into controversy in the early part of the last decade.
First he was called as a witness before a parliamentary investigation
into management practices at PKN Orlen, the state-controlled refiner.
He then fell out of favour with the rightwing Law and Justice
government in 2005-2007, which remains suspicious of powerful
businessmen.

Mr Kulczyk retreated to his London offices, and now plays a
significantly smaller role in the Polish economy. The majority of his
wealth is tied to his 3 per cent stake in UK brewer SABMiller, worth
$2.3bn.

He is looking beyond central Europe, hoping to leverage Poland’s
experience in building a modern economy on the ruins of communism by
supplying Africa with investment and knowhow.

His early business in Poland included setting up one of the country’s
first mobile telephone networks, investing in banking and insurance,
power infrastructure and highway construction.

“This is experience in areas that they really need there. This is
broadly understood infrastructure, energy sector and telecoms. These
are things I have done in Poland,” he says, adding that Poland’s swift
rise from poverty to middle income status can serve as a model for
Africa. When Poland broke from communism, average wages were only $20
a month, less than the $60 a month now earned in many African
countries.

For now, Mr Kulczyk remains largely alone in his enthusiasm for
Africa. The Polish foreign ministry does have a programme aimed at
increasing interest in the continent, and there have been some small
investments by Polish firms, but most Polish companies large enough to
look beyond their national market focus on the nearby and very
lucrative EU, not on Africa.

That is a mistake, says Mr Kulczyk. “Africa is a continent of poor
people and rich countries which have enormous wealth locked up under
the ground thanks to a lack of infrastructure,” he says. “But in
Europe we have poor countries [with few natural resources] and rich
people . . . it’s a win-win.”

Rwanda may offer reduced tax rates soon for investors in energy,
transport and logistics, as well as to fund managers and
export-oriented projects, under a new investment code, a Rwanda
Development Board (RDB) official said.

http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/rwanda-follows-mauritius-lead-as-it-eyes-tax-breaks-in-revised-investment-code.html

It could be in place by the end of April, said Vivian Kayitesi, head
of investment promotion and implementation at the state board.

The proposals could see investment in selected areas qualify for
reduced corporate tax, now set at 30 percent.

They also aim to ease restrictions on employing expatriates and
attract investment from financial institutions.

This could see Rwanda follow the lead of the Indian Ocean island of
Mauritius, a financial centre serving Africa and beyond.

"We are trying to see if we can attract more foreign direct investment
and to widen the tax base as well," Kayitesi told Reuters at the
board's headquarters in Kigali.

The priority would be to provide tax incentives to investors in
sectors such as energy, transport and logistics, which are vital to
clearing bottlenecks to development, although Kayitesi did not give
the size of tax reductions to such ventures.

"Export-oriented projects would probably get a lower rate" than the
current 30 percent, she said, adding there could also be tax holidays
of zero percent for a couple of years for "really large projects",
without saying what size would qualify.

Rwanda has won broad acclaim for policies that have ranked it the
easiest place in Africa to set up a new company after the nation was
left in ruins following the 1994 genocide that killed 800,000 people.

Western donors have poured in cash, praising the efficiency with which
aid dollars are used.

Kayitesi said Rwanda secured $400 million to $500 million of foreign
direct investment in 2013.

Mozambique Says in Talks With Rio Tinto Over Capital Gains Tax

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-26/mozambique-says-in-talks-with-rio-tinto-over-capital-gains-tax.html

Mozambique’s government said it’s in talks with Rio Tinto Group (RIO)
over capital gains tax on the company’s $4.2 billion acquisition of
Benga coal mines from Riversdale Mining Ltd. in 2011.

“The Riversdale-Rio Tinto business is still on the table,” Mozambique
Tax Authority President Rosario Fernandes told reporters late
yesterday in the capital, Maputo. “At some stage they have to follow
local law” as the acquisition involved mining assets in Mozambique,
she said.

Rio has complied with all applicable tax legislation, David Outhwaite,
a spokesman for the London-based company, said by phone. Rio paid $4
million in tax to Mozambique last year, according to a company report
published earlier this month. The company paid a total of $7.5 billion
in taxes for 2013, it said.

Rio, the world’s second-biggest mining company, last year wrote down
the value of the Mozambique assets by $3 billion, citing
transportation constraints and a cut to recoverable coking coal
estimates. The Mozambique government rejected Rio’s proposal to boost
shipments from the Benga mine by barging coal down the Zambezi River.

Mozambique expects to more than double the $1.3 billion it raised from
capital gains tax on five deals since 2012 with another 10
transactions pending, said Fernandes. Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Corp.
paid tax of $520 million after selling its 10 percent stake in a
Mozambique gas field to ONGC Videsh Ltd., a unit of India’s biggest
energy explorer, the tax authority said.

read more


How Kenya took on the International Criminal Court
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, Kenya — The International Criminal Court’s
crimes-against-humanity case against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta
is on the verge of collapse. Regardless of the merits of the case, the
lack of a full trial is bad news for both the ICC and the thousands of
victims who have been waiting for justice. But it’s a big victory for
Kenya’s current government, which both prosecutor Fatou Bensouda’s
office and foreign analysts have accused of working actively to
undermine justice.

It’s good news for other nations' governments looking to beat charges,
as well, because inadvertently or not, the Kenyan government appears
to have just written the playbook for beating the ICC.

Observers say that is when the real work to undermine the ICC began.

“Nothing has been happening in government except the effort to derail
the ICC,” said James Gondi, a human rights activist with the civil
society coalition Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice.

In the first year of the Jubilee government, alleged corruption has
scuppered an election promise of free laptops for schoolchildren,
economic growth targets have been missed, and terrorists have launched
a bloody, successful attack on the Westgate shopping mall killing at
least 67 people.

All the while government attention has been firmly on The Hague where
Kenyatta has won a string of victories, leaving the ICC damaged and
its weaknesses exposed.

But alleged tampering with actual and potential witnesses was not the
sole strategy observers believe the Kenyan government deployed to
ensure the case crumbled. “This has been about as comprehensive a
process of undermining as you can imagine,” said Phil Clark, a
lecturer in international politics at London’s School of Oriental and
African Studies (SOAS).

Clark said Kenya has employed “a multipronged process” that included
obstruction, diplomacy and — critically — victory in the 2013
elections that put the full powers of the state in the hands of the
accused.

“Kenya realized it could play this game at the international level
through diplomacy, at the national level during the elections and at
the community level through deliberate targeting of individuals,” said
Clark.

Kenyatta and Ruto’s election campaign, ironically with the help of a
team of British PR advisers, cast the two men as patriotic defenders
of national honor and sovereignty under attack by a neocolonial,
Western court.

“Kenya very successfully tapped into the rhetoric of the court as a
neocolonial tool and that’s a very salable narrative regardless of
whether it’s true or not,” said Mark Kersten, a researcher at the
London School of Economics and publisher of the Justice in Conflict
blog.

Kersten says Kenya “identified early on” that Western countries
wouldn’t put justice for victims of political violence in Kenya ahead
of their own economic and security interests in the country. “They
wouldn’t put their money where their mouth is when it comes to the
ICC,” he said.

Repercussions may yet be felt at home. While Kenyatta looks set to
avoid trial his co-accused, deputy and political ally Ruto has been in
the midst of his since September. This was not the deal. They were
supposed to be in it, or out of it, together.

Diplomats and political analysts here are concerned that an alliance
designed to keep both men out of the dock may now fall apart now with
potentially dangerous consequences.

Conclusions

The Case against the President collapsed a while back.

Kenya's 4th President Uhuru Kenyatta receives a symbolic sword of
power from outgoing President Mwai Kibaki after he was sworn into
office on April 9, 2013 in Nairobi. (Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images)

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/africa/kenya/140325/how-kenya-beat-the-international-criminal-court

Chief executive officer Bob Collymore told the Nation in an interview
Wednesday that the mobile company is no longer interested in the Sh8.6
billion joint deal with Airtel Kenya that would have also seen it take
over yuMobile’s spectrum.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Safaricom-now-abandons-plan-to-purchase-yuMobile/-/996/2258714/-/qjjc6pz/-/index.html

“We have pulled out of this deal unfortunately. We can’t waste more
time waiting for CCK to say a word about this. It’s been a month now
and the regulator has said nothing about it. We feel the delay is too
much and for us the takeover is something that was time-bound,” said
Mr Collymore.

“As far as we are concerned, this is the longest we can wait for the
transaction to be concluded. And there are a couple of things that are
unclear. Particularly, we can’t understand why the regulator says
totally nothing. Plus we all know the term of current board expires on
April 2 which means we could be subjected to a longer wait,” said Mr
Collymore.

yuMobile’s country manager Madhur Taneja said the firm was
disappointed that it stands to lose “the best deal we could have
gotten” due to the unexplained silence from the industry regulator.

“There is a huge and genuine concern about the delay in getting the
approvals from the regulator. There has not been any communication
either approving or disapproving the takeover from CCK. They have not
even answered any of our communications asking if they needed any
further information,” said Mr Taneja.

“It will be extremely unfortunate if we lost a good deal because of
delays that can be avoided. This would also show the regulator in very
bad light for other foreign investors interested in this market,” he
said.

Sameer Africa reports FY 2013 PAT +112.88% Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDA%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           7.00
Total Shares Issued:          278342000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,948,380,000
EPS:             1.44
PE:                 4.8611

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 12 months through 31st
December 2012

FY Revenue 4.029841b versus 4.083631b
FY Gross Profit 1.078122b versus 1.074585b
FY Other Operating Income 297.550m versus 23.307m +1176%
FY Operating Expenses [914.973m] versus [776.359m]
FY Operating Profit 460.699m versus 321.533m
FY Profit before Tax 456.521m versus 298.761m +52.804%
FY Profit after Tax 401.189m versus 188.454m +112.88%
FY Earnings Per Share 1.44 versus 0.68 +111.76%
FY Dividend 30 cents a share

Company Commentary


''Unit sales to export markets grew by 27% compared to 2012''
Retail Outlets registered +17%
Yana brand unit sales grew 14%
During the year the group sold part of its holding in leasehold land
for $3m 255m Kenya shilling gain

Conclusions


Strong results but the sale of leasehold land was worth 91.6 cents of
the 144 cents EPS.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +6.103% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.03% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Some 22,000 elephants were slaughtered in 2012, according to the
United Nations, and in Tanzania, an average of 30 are lost to poachers
every day.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/opinion/mutiga-in-africa-all-conservation-is-local.html?hpw&rref=opinion&_r=0

read more



Leading Kenyan MP says homosexuality 'as serious as terrorism'
Kenyan Economy


Aden Duale, the majority leader from President Uhuru Kenyatta's ruling
Jubilee coalition, was responding to a group of MPs demanding tougher
laws.

"Can't we just be brave enough, seeing that we are a sovereign state,
and outlaw gayism and lesbianism, the way Uganda has done?" legislator
Alois Lentoimaga said.

Uganda has voted for life imprisonment for some homosexual acts,
prompting some international donors to suspend aid.

Duale, who speaks on behalf of the Kenyan government in the assembly,
said: "We need to go on and address this issue the way we want to
address terrorism ...

"It's as serious as terrorism. It's as serious as any other social
evil," Duale said

Kenya's penal code says any person "who has carnal knowledge of any
person against the order of nature" is guilty of a felony and can be
jailed for 14 years.

Anti-gay groups have emerged in Kenya after Nigeria and Uganda
toughened up laws against homosexuals.

One of these groups, The Save Our Men Initiative, has said it is
launching a "Zuia Sodom Kabisa" campaign, meaning "prevent Sodom
completely" in Swahili, to "save the family, save youth, save Kenya".

Nigeria has outlawed same-sex relationships. Gambia's President Yahya
Jammeh has said homosexuals are "vermin" and must be fought like
malaria-causing mosquitoes.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics estimate that the
country earned Sh94.6 billion from 432.4 million kilogrammes of tea,
up from 369 million kilogrammes in 2012.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-tea-export-earnings-drop-to-Sh94bn/-/539546/2258894/-/abcd3e/-/index.html

The world’s largest exporter of black tea recorded export earnings of
Sh112 billion in 2012 and Sh109.4 billion in 2011.

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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