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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 03rd of March 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Charles Ireland's #Mindspeak Presentation PDF
Africa


Charles Ireland's #Mindspeak Presentation PDF
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/MINDSPEAK%20Presentation.pdf

Big Thank You to Charles Ireland CEO EABL for a wonderfully incisive #Mindspeak
http://www.twitpic.com/dwhk8d

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Contemporary Dance @Circleartagency #Nairobi cc @bartouvry
http://www.twitpic.com/dwxndq

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Putin cooks up Obama's chicken Kiev moment @FT
Law & Politics


In the dying days of the Soviet Union, President George H W Bush gave
a speech in Kiev urging Ukrainian nationalists not to provoke Moscow.
US conservatives dubbed it his "chicken Kiev" speech. Having long
since been branded America's appeaser-in-chief, President Barack Obama
now confronts his own chicken Kiev moment. Can Mr Obama stand up to
Vladimir Putin, the Russian fox circling the chicken coop? It is
unclear whether he has the will and the skill - let alone the means -
to do so. Yet the future of his presidency depends on it. There can be
little doubt that Mr Putin wants to restore the boundaries of the
Russian empire. Mr Obama must somehow find a way to frustrate him.

Vladimir Putin and @BarackObama

http://media.heavy.com/media/2013/08/Obama-and-Putin1.gif

Putin's been cautioning the U.S. and other NATO states for at least
six years not to impede Russian interests in Ukraine, particularly in
the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, home to its largest overseas naval
base.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/putin-grab-for-crimea-shows-trail-of-warning-signs-west-ignored.html

Putin told a closed NATO summit in Romania in 2008 that the military
alliance was threatening Ukraine's very existence by courting it as a
member, according to a secret cable published by Wikileaks. Putin said
Ukraine's borders were "sewn together" after World War II and its
claims to Crimea, which belonged to Russia until Nikita Khrushchev
gave it to Ukraine in 1954, are legally dubious, Kurt Volker, the U.S.
ambassador to NATO at the time, said in the cable.

Four months later, Putin demonstrated his willingness to back up words
with actions by sending Russian troops to war against Georgia over two
Russian-speaking regions seeking independence.

Now, in Putin's eyes, it's the U.S. and the European Union who are
pushing Ukraine to the brink of armed conflict by supporting the
overthrow of Russia-backed President Viktor Yanukovych. Elected four
years ago, Yanukovych was deposed by Ukrainian lawmakers on Feb. 22
after clashes with protesters left at least 82 people dead, the worst
violence the country has witnessed since World War II. Russia's
Foreign Ministry called it a "coup" by "fascists" carried out at
Russia's expense.

Conclusions


Geopolitical ''Splittism'' a concept first espoused by Oded Yinon is
gaining Traction from Xinjiang to Ukraine.

For Putin, Crimea is a Red Line.

read more



The US conceded on Sunday that Moscow had "complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula" and announced that the secretary of state, John Kerry, will fly to Kiev
Law & Politics


"We are on the brink of disaster," said Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine's
acting prime minister, as Kiev called for help from Washington and
London, co-signatories of a 1994 pact with Russia guaranteeing
Ukraine's security and its borders.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/vladimir-putin-crimea-brink-of-war-ukraine-kerry-russia

NATO's dream is to command a Western puppet Ukrainian government to
kick the Russian navy out of its base in Sevastopol.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-05-280214.html

The new Ukrainian Orange, Tangerine, Campari, Aperol Spritz or Tequila
Sunrise revolution seems so far to have answered NATO's prayers.

Let's take a closer look at the new Aperol Spritz "revolutionary"
wallet. Every month, the natural gas import bill from Russia is
roughly US$1 billion. In January, the country also had to spend $1.1
billion in debt repayment. Foreign currency reserves plunged to $17.8
billion from $20.4 billion. Ukraine has a minimum debt repayment of no
less than $17 billion in 2014. They even had to cancel a $2 billion
eurobond issue late last week.

Ukraine depends on Russia for 60 percent of its gas and is the main
transit route for OAO Gazprom (OGZD)'s shipments to Europe, where the
state-run company has a quarter of the market. Russia halted gas flows
to Ukraine in 2006 and 2009 -- before Yanukovych's presidency -- amid
disputes over prices and volumes, leading to shortages throughout
Europe.

Sevastopol

http://www.travel2sevastopol.com/sitebuilder/images/Sevastopol_harbour-1136x326.jpg

"Sevastopol is a hero-city in Russia's national consciousness and
official Russian media is now exploiting that," Pynnoniemi said by
e-mail, referring to the status awarded the city in Soviet times for
its WWII sacrifices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/putin-grab-for-crimea-shows-trail-of-warning-signs-west-ignored.html

Putin, 61 once described the breakup of the Soviet Union as the
biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, was named
"Person of the Year" in December by the Times of London

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/putin-grab-for-crimea-shows-trail-of-warning-signs-west-ignored.html

UKRAINE: THIS ISN'T A REVOLUTION - IT'S REGIME CHANGE Let's call a spade a spade

http://www.spiked-online.com/spikedplus/article/ukraine-this-isnt-a-revolution-its-regime-change#.UxQOLxZViX0

'Violent terror attack' at Chinese train station by knife-wielding men
leaves 28 dead, 113 injured

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/violent-terror-attack-at-chinese-train-station-by-knifewielding-men-leaves-28-dead-113-injured-9162709.html

Eyewitnesses said the men, dressed all in black, had attacked people
indiscriminately with long knives.

The attack came ahead of the National People's Congress in Beijing on
Wednesday, where leading government figures meet to discuss the
country's progress over the past year

A Chinese police investigator inspects the scene of an attack at
the railway station in Kunming, southwest China's Yunnan province, on
March 2, 2014.

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/03447f37f941c3b1b9e2728e783ea6f74ce641e1/c=223-0-3625-2557&r=x513&c=680x510/local/-/media/KSDK/KSDK/2014/03/01//1393710511000-475808743-10.jpg

China blames Xinjiang militants for deadly attack at station

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-china-attack-idUSBREA200OQ20140302

China blamed militants from the restive far western region of Xinjiang
on Sunday for an attack at a train station on the other side of the
country by knife-wielding "terrorists" in which at least 33 died,
including four of the assailants, who were shot dead.

The attack, in the balmy southwestern city of Kunming late on Saturday
evening, marks a major escalation in the simmering unrest which had
centered on Xinjiang, a heavily Muslim region strategically located on
the borders of Central Asia.

It is the first time people from Xinjiang have been blamed for
carrying out such a large-scale attack so far from their homeland, and
follows an incident in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in October which
shook the country's Communist leadership.

Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered that no effort be spared to track
down those behind the attack.

"Severely punish in accordance with the law the violent terrorists and
resolutely crack down on those who have been swollen with arrogance,"
Xinhua quoted him as saying.

"Understand the serious and complex nation of combating terrorism," Xi
said. "Go all out to maintain social stability."

02-DEC-2013 ::The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0212.pdf

I see the pivot to Asia as the encirclement of China, then the
shrinking of its operating theatre and then lighting the tinderbox
that is the periphery and Xinjiang might well morph into China's
Afghanistan.

As a global power with worldwide interests, it is imperative that the
United States now and for the foreseeable future be able to deter and
defeat large-scale, cross-border aggression in two distant theaters in
overlapping time frames, preferably in concert with regional allies.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/01/the-measure-of-superpower-a-two-major-regional-contingency-military-for-21-century

Residents from the besieged Palestinian camp of Yarmouk queue to
receive food supplies in Damascus, Syria.

http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/gallery/2014/mar/01/20-photographs-angelina-jolie-ukraine#/?picture=431009300&index=11

@BarackObama to Israel -- Time Is Running Out [look at the attached
Photograph- says it all]

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-02/obama-to-israel-time-is-running-out

In an hourlong interview Thursday in the Oval Office, Obama, borrowing
from the Jewish sage Rabbi Hillel, told me that his message to
Netanyahu @netanyahu will be this: "If not now, when? And if not you,
Mr. Prime Minister, then who?" He then took a sharper tone, saying
that if @netanyahu "does not believe that a peace deal with the
Palestinians is the right thing to do for Israel, then he needs to
articulate an alternative approach." He added, "It's hard to come up
with one that's plausible."

"I'm not big on extremism generally," Obama said. "I don't think
you'll get me to choose on those two issues. What I'll say is that if
you look at Iranian behavior, they are strategic, and they're not
impulsive. They have a worldview, and they see their interests, and
they respond to costs and benefits. And that isn't to say that they
aren't a theocracy that embraces all kinds of ideas that I find
abhorrent, but they're not North Korea. They are a large, powerful
country that sees itself as an important player on the world stage,
and I do not think has a suicide wish, and can respond to incentives."

This view puts him at odds with Netanyahu's understanding of Iran. In
an interview after he won the premiership, the Israeli leader
described the Iranian leadership to me as "a messianic apocalyptic
cult."

I asked Obama if he understood why his policies make the leaders of
Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries nervous: "I think that there are
shifts that are taking place in the region that have caught a lot of
them off guard," he said. "I think change is always scary."

OBAMA: Well, I don't think this is personal. I think that there are
shifts that are taking place in the region that have caught a lot of
them off guard. I think change is always scary. I think there was a
comfort with a United States that was comfortable with an existing
order and the existing alignments, and was an implacable foe of Iran,
even if most of that was rhetorical and didn't actually translate into
stopping the nuclear program. But the rhetoric was good.

read more


Larry Summers Nails The Radical Economic Implications of The Facebook-WhatsApp Mega-Deal
International Trade


In his speech he said some really sharp stuff about the significance
of WhatsApp -- the messaging company being purchased by Facebook for
$19 billion.

Here's the exact language, via Bloomberg:


Ponder for example that the leading technological companies of this
age, I think for example of Apple and Google, find themselves swimming
in cash and facing the challenge of what to do with a very large cash
hoard. Ponder the fact that WhatsApp has a greater market value than
Sony with next to no capital investment required to achieve it. Ponder
the fact that it used to require tens of millions of dollars to start
a significant new venture. Significance new ventures today are seeded
with hundreds of thousands of dollars in the information technology
era. All of this means reduced demand for investment with consequences
for the flow of - with consequences for equilibrium levels of interest
rates.

In other words, if you hardly need any cash to start huge companies,
then cash just piles up in investor bank accounts with nowhere to go.
And if cash isn't moving, because there's no demand or use for that
money, then interest rates will fall.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3787
Dollar Index 79.82
Japan Yen 101.37 The yen climbed 0.4 percent to 101.39 per dollar as
of 6:20 a.m. in London, after earlier reaching 101.26, the strongest
level since Feb. 6
Swiss Franc 0.8794
Pound 1.6732
Aussie 0.8924 Australia's dollar was little changed at 89.24 U.S.
cents from last week, after earlier touching 88.91, the lowest since
Feb. 5
India Rupee 61.86
South Korea Won 1067.60 South Korea's won weakened after the country's
defense ministry said the communist north fired two short-range
missiles off its east coast today. The won fell 0.2 percent to
1,070.13 per dollar after touching 1,075.14, the weakest since Feb. 24
Brazil Real 2.3380
Egypt Pound 6.9641
South Africa Rand 10.8136

Japan's currency touched its strongest level in almost one month
versus the greenback after Putin won parliamentary backing to send
troops into Russia's southern neighbor. The euro slid for a fifth day
against the Swiss franc, after the Russian ruble and Ukraine's hryvnia
plunged to records last week. South Korea's won dropped to a one-week
low after the communist north fired two short-range missiles off its
east coast.

"The North Korea news added momentum to the yen buying that began with
events in Ukraine," said Kengo Suzuki, the chief currency strategist
at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. "There's a risk-off tone building
in currency markets."

Russia's Micex Sinks 7.9%, Heads for Biggest Drop Since 2009

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.82 [trades heavy]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.4 percent annual rate, the
Commerce Department said, down sharply from the 3.2 percent pace it
reported last month and the 4.1 percent logged in the third quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-usa-economy-idUSBREA1Q16020140228

The economy has faced a number of headwinds, including a 16-day
shutdown of the government in October and an unusually cold winter
that has weighed on activity since late December.

Growth has also been dampened by the expiration of long-term
unemployment benefits, cuts to food stamps and businesses placing
fewer orders with manufacturers as they work through a pile of unsold
goods in their warehouses.

"I don't think the fundamentals have changed appreciably," said Ryan
Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester,
Pennsylvania. "Heading into this year we knew it wasn't going to be
smooth sailing."

Conclusions

I think that was the Soft Patch and we will see an acceleration in the
US from here.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3787 [1.3380 STOP]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Feb. 28 figures showed the inflation rate was an annual 0.8
percent last month, exceeding the median estimate of 0.7 percent in a
Bloomberg survey of economists. It remains at less than half the 2
percent level the ECB uses to define price stability. ECB President
Mario Draghi testifies in the European Parliament in Brussels today.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.37 [outside chance of a move to 95.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Bullion is the biggest gainer in 2014 after coffee and lean hogs on
the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities.

Gold 3 month Chart INO 1344.19 [17 week highs on Crimea]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Bullion for immediate delivery climbed as much as 1.4 percent to
$1,344.87 an ounce and traded at $1,342.50 at 10:57 a.m. in Singapore.
Prices advanced 6.6 percent last month after a 3.2 percent gain in
January, and reached a 17-week high of $1,345.46 on Feb. 26.

"Geopolitical risk out of Ukraine is giving gold a safe-haven bid,"
Victor Thianpiriya

Silver advanced 1.1 percent to $21.4611 an ounce, after climbing 11
percent in February, the first monthly gain since October.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 103.77

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.J14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Coffee 3 month Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_KC.K14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party picked Defence Minister Filipe Nyussi as its presidential candidate late Saturday
Africa


Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party picked Defence Minister Filipe
Nyussi as its presidential candidate late Saturday, a decision likely
to see current President Armando Guebuza maintain influence even after
he steps down following October polls.

"Filipe Nyussi won with 68 percent," party spokesman Damiao Jose told
AFP early Sunday following two rounds of voting.

Frelimo -- a formerly Marxist-Leninist but now avowedly capitalist
party -- has won every election since Mozambique's civil war ended 21
years ago, and is expected to do so again in October.

This means Nyussi is effectively president-in-waiting.

Filipe Jacinto Nyusi

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Images/2011/6/bcce9bb7-927a-4cf9-b017-3cadde0c5a75HiRes.JPG

The project with capacity to produce 20 million tonnes of LNG annually
would be the world's largest LNG export site after ExxonMobil-run Ras
Laffan in Qatar.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil-gas/ovl-to-invest-3-billion-more-in-mozambique-gas-field/articleshow/31272308.cms

Rovuma Area 1 Offshore Mozambique Block (Block Area 1) is located
along the coasts of northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania in the
Indian Ocean. Block Area 1 has a total area of more than 10,000 square
kilometres in water depths ranging 900 meters to 1,600 metres and
about 30-60 kms from shore.

Maputo Boom Town 4th June 2012

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/040NSX0406.pdf

GREETINGS from the Serena Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is
the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. The Architecture
is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was built in 1922
and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky. It is less than
4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the most of in
things and places to visit.

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea. I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa
is clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through Tanzania,
Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this discovery
process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

Maputo from the Sea 637 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/9sab9t

World Bank postpones $90m Uganda loan over anti-gay law

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26378230

Uganda accused the World Bank of blackmail on Friday after the lender
stalled a $90-million loan over the East African nation's adoption of
a draconian anti-gay law.

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-03-01-world-banks-block-of-uganda-loan-is-blackmail

"World Bank is a multi-lateral institution that should not blackmail
its members, however small," government spokesperson Ofwono Opondo
said on Twitter.

"Russia has worked in Africa since 1917, meaning they have been here
for more than 100 years. I want to work with Russia because they don't
mix up their politics with other country's politics," Mr Museveni
said.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Yoweri-Museveni-Barack-Obama-Anti-Homosexuality-Bill/-/1066/2218372/-/fpui3kz/-/index.html

He added: "If you see a person going to another person's home then you
know there is a problem."

"This is my home. You cannot find a man with a bald head like mine in
his home and tell him what you want. Go back to your home," he said in
a veiled reference to President Obama.

"In Ankole, if you find such a thing happening, one will enter his
house and pick his stick."

Rwanda Gets Record Demand at First Franc Debt Sale Since 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/rwanda-gets-record-demand-at-first-franc-debt-sale-since-2011.html

The sale of 12.5 billion francs ($18 million) of three-year bonds had
a coupon of 11.48 percent and a yield of 11.6 percent, the
Kigali-based National Bank of Rwanda said in a statement on its
website. Investors sought 40 percent more than offered, it said.
Uganda's three-year notes yielded 13.19 percent at an auction on Jan.
29, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"The success of the bond is attributed to the far-reaching awareness
campaign," the bank said in the statement. "The marketing strategy
consisted of split roadshows covering the four provinces while at the
regional level a roadshow was organized in Nairobi."

Rwanda's moves to restart sales of local-currency debt that mature in
more than one year join East African nations including Tanzania and
Uganda extending bond terms to pay for infrastructure projects.
Rwanda's January inflation rate of 2.4 percent was the lowest in the
region.

The country will offer more debt in May, August and November, the
central bank said. Local investors bought 94 percent of the debt at
this week's issuance, according to the bank.

Rwanda is the only East African nation in the region to have issued a
Eurobond, raising $400 million in 2013. The debt has returned 4.2
percent in 2014, the best in Africa, according to Bank of America
Merrill Lynch indexes. President Paul Kagame said Jan. 24 the
government plans to obtain $1 billion from international bond markets
this year.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.68% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.8086

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9624

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +19.13% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.27% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

This banker turned whistleblower has a revolutionary message for Nigeria

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/lamido-sanusi-revolutionary-message-nigeria

Sanusi had, up until now, led a pretty predictable life. He attended
the right schools, enjoyed a successful banking career and in 2009 was
appointed governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Hardly your
stereotypical activist candidate.

But this wealthy nobleman has emerged as a thorn in the neck of
Nigeria's government since alleging last December that $20bn of the
country's oil revenue went missing in the year 2012-13, and that
Nigeria is being "raped by vested interests". The government has
rejected his claims. Sanusi insists the money is gone.

Last week, President Goodluck Jonathan "suspended" him from his
position as central bank chief, sending the country's currency on a
downward spiral and prompting uncertainty on the Nigerian stock
exchange.

Rooting for the underdog is not part of the national psyche in
Nigeria. Admiration is usually reserved for the mighty, and the
instinct is to bow low before them. Fela Kuti, the late legendary
Nigerian Afrobeat musician and social critic, once said his countrymen
"suffer and smile"; a stance he described as "approaching slave
mentality".

I asked the man at the centre of the controversy how he would respond
to such concerns. "It is always easier for power to deal with an
individual than with a mass movement, no matter who that individual
is. If the population as a whole starts protesting what is going on in
our country, how many of them can they kill?" Sanusi replied, adding
that the ousted leaders of Ukraine and the Arab spring nations "never
did half as much damage to their countries as our rulers have".

He complained of a "worrying lack of social consciousness" in Nigeria
and a "reluctance to ask the powers that be tough questions anywhere
other than on Facebook".

"We should always remember that, in the end, this country belongs to
us," Sanusi added. Nowadays, "entitlement" has become a dirty word in
many western countries, conjuring up images of welfare-seeking bums.
However, in the case of Nigeria, it is the people's lack of a sense of
entitlement that enables their rulers rip them off so easily while
they meekly accept a life of poverty and hardship as inevitable.

read more



The president denied Sanusi's suspension was related to his interference in politics but the decision spooked investors and the naira has now lost 3.6 percent this year.
Africa


Those who do subscribe to the notion of a correct naira value mostly
believe it still has far to fall. The bank's resources to support the
currency are weakening: liquid reserves have slipped by $3.26 billion,
or 8 percent, since the start of 2014 to $39.2 billion - or by about
$57 million a day.

Analysts at Renaissance Capital said this week that reserves could
fall to $35 billion before the bank would be forced to give up the
game and devalue.

Gregory Kronsten at FBN capital thinks "at the current pace of
depletion, the tipping point would come within weeks."

Portfolio outflows aren't helping: foreign investors' holdings of
Nigerian bonds - which grew nearly fivefold in 12 months after the
country was included in a J.P. Morgan local currency bond index in
2011 - have plunged by $2 billion since the start of January, to $7
billion as emerging markets became more volatile.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +12.85% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Kinshasa (AFP) - UN gunships targeted a base of the Ugandan Muslim
rebel group ADF-Nalu in the eastern DR Congo for the first time
Saturday, the UN force said.

http://news.yahoo.com/un-gunships-strike-ugandan-muslim-rebels-dr-congo-200544428.html

The Congolese army had in recent weeks taken the lead in the drive to
root out ADF-Nalu, one of the oldest but lesser known armed
organisations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

A statement from MONUSCO, the UN mission in the country, said two
attack helicopters struck an ADF base northeast of Beni at 1255 GMT.

Beni is a remote town in North Kivu, a restive resource-rich province
that borders Rwanda and Uganda.

"This operation, conducted with great precision, helps achieve a clear
goal: bringing an end to ADF's recent attacks against the civilian
population," said MONUSCO chief Martin Kobler, quoted in the
statement.

A South African Air Force Rooivalk helicopter

http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2013/09/04/rooivalk-holds-key-to-drc-conflict---un

People flee Bangui in a container in this photograph by a regular
contributor to this gallery, Fred Dufour.

http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/gallery/2014/mar/01/20-photographs-angelina-jolie-ukraine#/?picture=431009389&index=19

read more



CORPORATE EARNINGS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, NSE POISED HIGHER
Kenyan Economy


THE earnings season is upon us at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. For
a reason best known to the inner and subliminal workings of my mind, I
always imagine it to be a little like the Ngong races in my childhood.

I remember a time watching the pre-race Parade and this fellow saying:

''Damn fine filly!'' Occasionally I find myself out of an evening and
I want to exclaim:''Damn fine filly!'' but then I catch myself.

So a little like at the races, you cannot argue with the tape and the
earnings season is the tape. It gives us a fix on a company. I tend to
make an effort and attend as many earnings' releases as physically
possible.

About five years ago, I discovered the extraordinary Dr. Paul Ekman
who is a pioneer in the study of emotions and their relation to facial
expressions. Dr.Ekman has created a road map for reading faces and I
have found the study of faces as useful as the study of numbers. And
the point about reading faces is you need to be physically present.

I went to the release of Kenya Commercial Bank's results and I found
myself doing a linguistic analysis and I told Joshua Oigara, the CEO:

'''Joshua, trigger words in your commentary were ''21st century col-
laboration: outlier, catalyst.''

My point is that when you invest in the markets, there is plenty to
sift through in the raw data but I have found in order to create a
''leading edge'' there are many more contours to study than just
science around the numbers.

Returning to the earnings season at the Securities Exchange,earnings
have outperformed expectations on balance. Mumias Sugar, for example,
has rallied +30.508% since releasing its first half results. Mumias
Sugar narrowed its first half loss before tax from Sh1.58 billion to
Sh104.874m. Kenya Commercial Bank posted a +17.517% full year profit
after tax and a +60% acceleration in its international businesses
[Non-Kenya but EAC] speaks to a muscular EAC. EABL is trading 4.34%
higher since releasing its earnings and +20.54% higher than a low
close of 219.00 immediately after the earnings release. That looks
like a ''blow-off bottom''. A ''blow-off bottom'' is when pes- simism
climaxes and everyone with any uncertainty gets flushed out.
Counter-intuitively, it's a very bullish signal. Interestingly it
looks like both Mumias Sugar and EABL have put in ''blow-off
bottoms.'' KenGen reported a 24.43% decline in first half profit
before tax. KenGen has retreated 20% this year ahead of what is
expected to be a supersized rights issue and debt raising exercise.
The power generator remains defensive for the foreseeable future or at
least until the rights issue.

This year had you been a pairs trader and you had been long Kenya
Power and short KenGen, you would already have earned 2600 basis
points of performance. Of course, you cannot short shares at the
Securities Exchange. I think that trend has further to run.

Overall and taking everything into the mix, results have outper-
formed ''street'' expectations and the market is underpinned and
poised to move higher.

There is plenty of rotation happening, however, and this is making the
market interesting for traders who trade on a tactical basis.

read more



CFC Stanbic reports FY PAT 2013 +70.343% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           106.00
Total Shares Issued:          395300000.00
Market Capitalization:        41,901,800,000
EPS:             12.97
PE:                8.172

The Kenyan Banc assurance model includes CFC Bank, CFC Financial
Services and Heritage Assurance.

Full Year Results through 31st December 2013 versus Full Year Results

through 31st December 2012
Total Assets 180.511797b versus 143.212155b +26.045%
Financial Investments 45.153463b versus 20.966076b +115.36%
FY Loans and Advances Net to Customers 103.847691b versus 78.483828b +32.317%
FY Customer Deposits 130.285985b versus 100.463247b +29.685%
FY Net Interest Income 7.542114b versus 6.542787b +15.273%
FY Non Interest Revenue 8.660968b versus 7.549557b +14.721%
Total Income 16.203082b versus 14.092344b +14.977%
Credit Impairment Charges [766.601m] versus [635.429m]
Income after Impairment 15.346481b versus 13.456915b
FY Total Operating Expenses [8.212476b] versus [8.868827b] -7.4006%
FY Profit before Taxation 7.224005b versus 4.588088b +57.45%
FY Profit After Tax 5.127156b versus 3.009891b +70.343%
FY Earnings per Share 12.97 versus 9.90 +31.01%
FY Dividend Pay Out 2.15 versus 0.73 +194.52%

Conclusions


Predictably and in fact predicted muscular FY Earnings. CFC StanBic is
cheap versus its Peers on a PE of 8.172 and the Price has Headroom
towards 130.00 and a PE of 10.00
CFC Stanbic has undertaken significant Transformation and I expect the
Acceleration to gain more Earnings Traction going forward.

read more


NIC Bank FY PAT 2013 +6.602% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           62.50
Total Shares Issued:          542980000.00
Market Capitalization:        33,936,250,000
EPS:             6.12
PE:                 10.2124

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus through 31st December 2012

FY Loans and Advances to customers [net] 83.493313b versus 71.540092b +16.708%
FY Total Assets 121.062739b versus 108.348593b +11.734%
FY Total Interest Income 11.642416b versus 11.467574b
FY Total Interest Expense 4.374437b versus 5.983706 -26.894%
FY Net Interest Income 7.267979b versus 5.483868b
FY Total Non-Interest Income 3.218319b versus 2.896530b
FY Total Operating income 10.486298b versus 8.380398b
FY Loan Loss Provision 1.092873b versus 0.297485b
FY Staff Costs 2.150877b versus 1.814769b
FY Total Operating Expenses 5.476726b versus 3.862431b
FY Profit Before Tax 5.009572b versus 4.517967b +10.885%
FY Profit After Tax and Exceptional Items 3.237302b versus 3.036794b +6.602%
FY Earnings Per share 6.12 versus 5.50 +11.272%
Interim Dividend 0.25
Final Dividend 0.75 versus 1.00
The Directors recommend subject to regulatory approvals and that of
the shareholders, to make a bonus issue in the proportion of 1 new
ordinary share for every 10 held.

Conclusions


relatively inexpensive, a low base Effect and NIC Bank is always
talked of as a Potential Acquisition target.

read more


KenGen aims to raise 30 billion Kenyan shillings ($347 million) in a rights issue and via other routes in 2014 to fund expansion of its power generating capacity, its chief executive told Reuters on Friday.
Kenyan Economy



The company, 70 percent owned by the government, has installed
capacity of 1,252 megawatts (MW) out of Kenya's total 1,664 MW. It
aims to add another 844 MW to the grid by 2017 as part of a broader
national power expansion programme.

"We are looking at being able to raise this money by June. We have
financial arrangers," Chief Executive Albert Mugo told Reuters. The
firm had earlier said it would raise 15 billion shillings in a rights
issue and Mugo said the government would raise the remaining 15
billion shillings but did not say how.

KenGen share price data and H1 Earnings here -19.557% in 2014
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzc%3D

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           10.90
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        23,962,138,650
EPS:             2.39
PE:                 4.561

H1 through 31st December 2013 versus H1 through December 2012
H1 Electricity Revenue 8.483b versus 8.432b
H1 Operating Expenses [5.695b] versus [5.144b]
H1 Operating Profit 3.221b versus 3.995b
H1 Finance Costs [1.385b] versus [1.566b]
H1 PBT 1.836b versus 2.429b -24.413%
H1 PAT 1.018b versus 1.659b -38.63%
H1 EPS 0.46 versus 0.75 -38.66%

Conclusions

The Trough in Earnings might last for up to 24-36 months as KenGen
bulks up big. The Share price remains under near term pressure
[-19.557% in 2014] ahead of a supersized Rights Issue.

Mumias Sugar share price data and Earnings releases here +30.508%
since 19th February
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzg%3D

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           3.85
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,890,500,000
EPS:             -1.09
PE:                 -3.532

H1 Earnings through December 2013 versus H1 Earnings through December 2012
H1 Net Revenue 7.132846b versus 5.426043b +31%
Fair Value [Loss]/Gain on biological assets -37.952m versus -56.862m
Gross Profit 1.452914b versus 141.957m +923%
Marketing and Distribution Costs -385.963m versus -419.732m
Administrative Expenses -782.613m versus -802.266m
Other Operating Expenses -339.940m versus -409.669m
Finance Income 154.176m versus 231.856m
Finance Costs -315.201m versus -458.408m
Loss before Tax -104.874m versus -1.580581b
H1 Loss after Tax -73.412m versus -1.106407b
H1 EPS -.05 versus -0.72
Cash and Cash Equivalents at at 31st Dec [1.392256b] versus [2.058867b]

"We are looking to conclude it before the end of our financial year in
June. Everything is ready except the final approval from the Capital
Markets Authority (CMA)," said Mr Ciano. The rights issue had been
widely anticipated to take place by the end of last year. @BD_Africa
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Uchumi-targets-June-to-conclude-Sh1-5bn-cash-call/-/539552/2227926/-/rulov9z/-/index.html

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +3.22% 2014
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.13% 2014
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Nairobi 'one of the most livable cities in Africa'
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Nairobi-Rent-Living-Accommodation-Africa-Report/-/996/2227172/-/f8cu92z/-/index.html

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share edged 0.1417% lower to close at 140.85.
The Nairobi NSE20 edged 1.6 points higher to close at 4935.01.
Equity Turnover was 470.208m.
There were 14 Winners and 23 losers today.
Rea Trading lifted its Offer for the shares it does not own in Rea
Vipingo 70 shillings a share plus a kicker of another 15 shillings a
share making a Total [potential] Pay out of 85/= a share.
That is 309% higher than the price pertaining in the market before the
Initial Offer was made. Its a compelling Offer and expected to carry
the day.
Mumias Sugar maintained its blistering Rally and closed 3.8961% higher
and that makes it a +35.59% Rebound since the 19th of February.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


It was a Pleasure meeting Richard M. Robinow [Chairman of R.E.A.
Holdings PLC] on the same day that Rea Vipingo's majority shareholder,
REA Trading, has raised its offer to buy the rest of the company's
shares by 75 percent. REA Trading said in a statement it had proposed
to buy the shares at 70 shillings each, higher than its original offer
of 40 shillings a share in November. REA Trading said its original
offer had failed to account for the value of the company's land if it
were put to other uses. REA Trading also said shareholders who
accepted its offer would be entitled to a pro-rata share of dividends
or distributions of proceeds from future sale of land for up to 15
shillings per share. Rea Vipingo's shares closed at 27.50 shillings on
Nov.13, when they last traded on the bourse. The shares were suspended
when REA Trading first unveiled its offer. Mr. Robinow chose to remind
me that I had advocated a Fair Price of a $1.00 per share and
therefore, I, for one, think this is a fair and decent Price and will
carry the day. Of course, this Final Offer should prove a Catalyst for
a re-pricing of the rest of the Sector.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 11.70 and traded 2.948m shares worth
34.511m. Demand outweighed Supply by a Factor of 83 versus 18
signalling The Price points higher. The News around Yu's sale to
Airtel Kenya [They get the Yu Subscribers who are price sensitive and
I venture low-yielding] and Safaricom [They get the Infrastructure] is
constructive for the Price. There is a lot of informed Chatter that
Telkom Kenya is also in 'GO SHOP' Mode. Safaricom is +7.8341% in 2014
and will retest its record Closing High of 12.45 from January 24th
this year.

ScanGroup firmed +1.01% to close at 50.00 and traded 481,700 shares.
WPP now has a Majority Stake and I, for one, believe the WPP Network
Effect justifies a Price of over 55.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


CFC Stanbic Bank [a little counterintuitively] eased 3.77% to close at
102.00 the First Session after Releasing FY 2013 Earnings where CFC
reported a +70.343% Acceleration in FY Profit After Tax to 5.127156b.
At todays closing Price CFC Stanbic trades on a PE of 7.864 which
remains cheap versus its Peers.
NIC Bank reported Full Year 2013 Earnings where FY 2013 Earnings Per
Share expanded FY Earnings Per Share expanded +11.272% and the Bank
announced a Bonus of one share for every ten held. NIC Bank closed
unchanged at 62.50.

Equity Bank closed unchanged at 32.25 and traded 2.451m shares worth
79.218. Equity Bank is +4.878% in 2014 and trades on a PE Ratio of
8.983 after the Release of its Full Year 2013 Earnings where FY PAT
accelerated +9.9132%.
Kenya Commercial Bank firmed +0.57% to close at 44.00 and traded
1.279m shares worth 56.321m. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on a PE
Ratio of 9.128 and accelerated Full Year Profit After Tax +17.517%.
Standard Chartered firmed +0.66% to close at 304.00 and traded 3,700
shares. I think Standard Chartered to outperform Earnings Expectations
and a Possible Split to further accelerate the Price from here.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 18.85 and traded 1.362m shares.

CIC Insurance rallied +5.97% to close at 7.10 and was trading at
session highs of 7.20 +7.46% at the closing Bell. CIC Insurance is
+19.32% in 2014 and trades on a Trailing PE of 11.09375.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Mumias Sugar rallied a further +3.8961% to close at 4.00 and traded
6.455m shares. Mumias Sugar has rallied +35.59% since 19th February
and since releasing its First Half Earnings.

BAT firmed +1.21% to close at 585.00 and traded 31,800 shares. BAT has
further headroom after releasing FY 2013 Earnings where Full Year
Earnings Per Share accelerated +13.848%. The Final Dividend of 33.50 a
share is worth 5.726% of Yield and supports the Price through 600.00.

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
today and eased 0.76% to close at 262.00 and traded 343,100 shares
worth 89.919m. EABL sits 19.63% above its 52 week closing low of
219.00 from the 19th of February and I, for one, believe that was an
Important Low and entirely unlikely to be breached in 2014.

Total Kenya rallied 3.41% to close at 22.75 and traded 37,800 shares.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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