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Monday 31st of March 2014 |
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My Weekly Piece for the Star |
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Geopolitical Musings:Role of Information Flow Africa |
DON DeLillo in his book, Cosmopolis, says: "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live." And cer- tainly, the 21st century is a world hurtling at a dizzying velocity.
Where once we were far away on the frontier of our world with less than 15,000 landlines with which to connect to each other, today millions of mobile phones connect us all to the world. This has happened over the last decade. The mobile phone in my view has flattened the world and has precipitated rapid convergence of expectations world-wide. In some instances, and particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, we saw these expectations simply explode and then get throttled. I call it 'throttling', others might characterise it as a 'repression'. You can throttle only for so long but then history shows that when the 'tipping point' arrives, everything simply gets blown away.
Gil Scott-Heron famously announced: "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised" in his poem and song from 1970.
However, I recall the Iranian revolution of 1978/79 which was televised and which I watched unfold on my TV screen. More than 30 years later, the US is still grappling with the Iranian theocracy and the consequences of that revolution. Interestingly, there is a school of thought that the kingdom is now as brittle as the 'Peacock Throne'. It is this sense which might be informing the pivot (after a fashion) to Tehran. The counter-revolutionary forces cannot keep a lid on things for a meaningful time. It is a pressure cooker.
There is a canard propagated by the Right in the US that President Barack Obama is somehow spineless when it comes to projecting American power in the 21st century. The failure to bomb Bashar into the Stone Age is always cited as evidence that Obama blinks and that this has emboldened the likes of Vladimir to munch Crimea. In my opinion, President Obama has been incredibly ag- gressive ( just look at the drone fatalities chart and compare Obama's numbers to the period under President Bush - Obama has been red in tooth and claw), he has espoused a very sophisticated tool kit that has encompassed currency war - take a look at something like the Iranian currency; cyber war; and a number of other strategies which whilst they might not serve the spectacle of the Iraq war are nevertheless just as effective and more subtle. It is not Putin who has parked himself somewhere right up against Obama's rear end, it is President Obama who is parked on Russia's European corner. Various iterations of the revolution from Benghazi to Kiev were largely manufactured in a laboratory somewhere in the recesses of the US National Security Complex.
Putin, of course, is a formidable adversary and in a very cute move inverted the R2P (Right to Protect) rule in his favour and over Crimea. It was the right to protect civilians in Benghazi from the wrath of Gaddafi rule which was used as justification to overthrow him and his 'Green Book'.
And let's be frank, Crimea has always been Tatar and Russian. No one really believes that Crimea is European, do they? This Crimea Referendum business is a geopolitical conundrum for China. The problem being, if you allow that periphery states can vote then you will definitely see a whole lot of China peel off real quick, from Tibet to Taiwan to Xinjiang.
Which brings me to my next point: the tone of US media when it comes to advocating the US position is just too stri- dent and unipolar in what is now a more diffuse and connect- ed world. It was Hillary Clinton who alerted us to an information war and she thought the US was losing it.
And finally, when Bouazizi self-immolated and triggered a brush fire across North Africa, I recall everyone dismissing such a brush fire could leap the Sahara and enter sub-Saharan Africa; out of hand. And that's right for now, but for how long?
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The Revolution Will Not Be Televised Africa |
You will not be able to stay home, brother. You will not be able to plug in, turn on and cop out. You will not be able to lose yourself on skag and skip, Skip out for beer during commercials, Because the revolution will not be televised.
The revolution will not be televised. The revolution will not be brought to you by Xerox In 4 parts without commercial interruptions.
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A Selection of Tweets tagged #Mindspeak Africa |
@carolinekere #Mindspeak "We have to catch up and compete, there is an urgency, we cannot wait 50-60 years" cc @alykhansatchu @rsezibera .... EAC-Afrika Mashariki @jumuiya #EAC Common Market Scorecard: Tanzania slowest in removing NTBs, Kenya fastest in Removing & Reintroducing NTBs @rsezibera #Mindspeak @carolinekere @alykhansatchu @rsezibera his words are slow and succinct , a lot to think about, we need to forget chasing flags #Mindspeak ... @ndettombalu @alykhansatchu @rsezibera very intellectually stimulating discussions keep the conversation on #EAC #Mindspeak out most Regard @maujjo"@alykhansatchu: Dont agonise Please organise says Dr. @rsezibera to the Youth re involvement of Youth with EAC #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi" @carolinekere #WordOfTheDay >> "Look for a Language that will make YOU Money,INVEST in it " cc @alykhansatchu @rsezibera #Mindspeak ... @jamalabdihakim "@alykhansatchu:South Sudan has applied to join EAC Somalia has applied says Sec Gen @rsezibera #Mindspeak"the fastr we intergrate the bettr EAC-Afrika Mashariki @jumuiya 1h DOWNLOAD: #EAC Industrialization Policy 2012 2032 http://industrialization.eac.int/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=130&Itemid=70 ... #Mindspeak @rsezibera @alykhansatchu @KyesubireThe East African Community has a National Anthem? Clearly you learn something new everyday #Mindspeak @alykhansatchu @rsezibera EAC-Afrika Mashariki @jumuiya Manufactureing contributes less than 10% to GDP, #EAC Industrializtion Poicy targets for atleast 40% @rsezibera #Mindspeak @alykhansatchu EAC-Afrika Mashariki @jumuiya ON A LIGHTER NOTE: #EAC has 135m people and 135m chicken!! 1 Person, 1 Chicken! @rsezibera at #mindspeak @alykhansatchu Ennuka Africa @jkkinoti EA has 135m people and 135m chicken!! The SG @rsezibera is just too real up there #mindspeak @alykhansatchu @jamalabdihakim "@alykhansatchu:Lets create wealth first but lets not get into fights about sharing a non existent cake @rsezibera #Mindspeak EAC"True that! @WillydeAfrican RT @alykhansatchu: The Opportunities are enormous for East African Youth says Dr. @rsezibera EAC SG #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi @kaburaR EAC GDP combined is smaller than Angola Alone @rsezibera @alykhansatchu at #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi @erastotle #mindspeak that's the biggest case I've heard for EA and generally African integration @rsezibera @alykhansatchu @Kyesubire Food security is Key; we need infrastructure to be able to move the food @rsezibera @alykhansatchu @jumuiya #Mindspeak @Kyesubire Invest in Kiswahili; it cements our unity @rsezibera @alykhansatchu @jumuiya #Mindspeak
Macro Thoughts
In 2007, the United States' economy was four times as large as that of China; by 2012, it was only twice as large Foreign Affairs http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140755/minxin-pei/how-china-and-america-see-each-other?nocache=1
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Putin calls Obama to discuss situation as Russia positions 40,000 troops along border Law & Politics |
"President Obama suggested that Russia put a concrete response in writing and the presidents agreed that Kerry and Lavrov would meet to discuss next steps", the White House said. The telephone call was placed by Mr Putin to Mr Obama who spent Friday on an official visit to Saudi Arabia.
Mr Kerry abruptly diverted his flight on Saturday to attend the talks in Paris http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26809625
South Korea returned artillery fire after North Korea lobbed shells over the two countries' western sea border, pushing tensions to their highest in months. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-31/north-and-south-korea-exchange-fire-across-western-sea-border.html
South Korea's shells landed in North Korean waters, the South's Defense Ministry said. North Korea earlier today notified Seoul of planned live-fire drills, the South's Defense Ministry spokesman Wi Yong Seob said in a briefing. Residents on the South Korean islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong were moved to shelters.
The exchange of fire comes after North Korea yesterday said it may conduct a "new form" of nuclear test, and after South Korea President Park Geun Hye in a speech last week in Germany proposed building closer links with the North to spur reunification.
North Korea began its drills at about 12:15 p.m. and some artillery shells landed in South Korean waters, the South's Defense Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. South Korea returned fire into North Korean waters "in line with proper counter-measures," and the military will provide further details after the situation ends, the ministry said.
Turkey has ratcheted up its intervention in the Syrian war to an unprecedented level, according to exclusive DEBKAfile military and intelligence sources. http://www.debka.com/article/23808/Syrian-rebels-allowed-to-attack-Latakia-from-Turkish-soil-under-Turkish-air-cover-Iran-raises-Cain-in-Ankara
For the first time in the three-year conflict the Turkish army is allowing Syrian rebel forces, including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, passage through Turkish territory for their offensive to capture the northwestern Syrian coastal area where the Assad clan's lands are situated.
Ankara's support for the rebels is inclusive: Turkish troops are posted at the roadside with supplies of ammo, fuel, food, mechanical repair crews and medical aid for rebel forces as they head north. The Turkish air force gives them air cover and Turkish agents arm them with surveillance data on Syrian military movements ahead.
The Syrian fighter jet shot down on March 23 just inside the Turkish border was in fact downed in a dogfight with Turkish warplanes, while trying to bomb the rebel convoy heading for the new combat arena. Both sides preferred to stay quiet about the incident and its causes.
Philippine ship dodges China blockade to reach South China Sea outpost http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-philippines-china-reef-idUSBREA2T02K20140330
The Philippine government vessel made a dash for shallow waters around the disputed reef in the South China Sea, evading two Chinese coastguard ships trying to block its path to deliver food, water and fresh troops to a military outpost on the shoal.
The cat-and-mouse encounter on Saturday, witnessed by Reuters and other media invited onboard the Philippine ship, was a rare glimpse into the tensions playing out routinely in waters that are one of the region's biggest flashpoints.
It's also a reminder of how assertive China has become in pressing its claims to disputed territory far from its mainland.
"If we didn't change direction, if we didn't change course, then we would have collided with them," Ferdinand Gato, captain of the Philippine vessel, a civilian craft, told Reuters after his boat had anchored on the Second Thomas Shoal under a hot sun.
The outpost is a huge, rusting World War Two transport vessel that the Philippine navy intentionally ran aground in 1999 to mark its claim to the reef.
There, around eight Filipino soldiers live for three months at a time in harsh conditions on a reef that Manila says is within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). China, which claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, says the shoal is part of its territory.
Things were going smoothly for the Philippine ship until it was spotted by a Chinese coastguard ship about an hour away from the Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese boat picked up speed to come near the left of the white Philippine ship, honking its horn at least three times.
The Chinese ship slowed down after a few minutes, but then a bigger coastguard vessel emerged, moving fast to cut the path of the Philippine boat.
The Chinese sent a radio message to the Filipinos, saying they were entering Chinese territory.
"We order you to stop immediately, stop all illegal activities and leave," said the radio message, delivered in English. Gato replied that his mission was to deliver provisions to Philippine troops stationed in the area.
Philippine troops wearing civilian clothes and journalists then flashed "V" for the peace sign at the Chinese.
Instead of stopping or reversing, the Philippine vessel picked up speed and eventually maneuvered away from the Chinese, entering waters that were too shallow for the bigger coastguard ships.
A U.S. navy plane, a Philippine military aircraft and a Chinese plane - all visible from their markings - flew above the ships at different intervals.
Filipino troops on the civilian vessel clapped as they came within a few meters of the marooned transport ship, the BRP Sierra Madre. Supplies of food and water were then hauled up to troops onboard.
"The United States does not seek to militarize cyberspace," Hagel he told an audience at Fort Meade, Maryland, the home of Cyber Command and the NSA signals spy service http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-usa-defense-cybersecurity-idUSBREA2R1ZH20140328
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, pushing for openness ahead of a trip to China, said on Friday in an unusual live broadcast from a secretive base the Pentagon would exercise restraint in using the military in cyberspace and urged other nations to do so as well.
He said the United States wanted to promote the qualities of the Internet that have made it a "catalyst for freedom and prosperity."
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The value of deals in the technology, media and telecoms sector hit $174bn during the first three months of the year, the highest level since 2006, as some of the world's largest companies battled to secure access to global consumers FT International Trade |
Of the deals announced in the first quarter, the most valuable is Comcast's $68.5bn proposed takeover of rival cable operator Time Warner Cable. On Friday, Charter - the cable company that had spent six months pursuing its own deal with TWC - filed legal documents contesting Comcast's bid, claiming it was subject to a "flawed process". However, the competition between the rivals only emphasises the moves towards consolidation among "old" media companies in recent months.
At the other end of the TMT spectrum was Facebook's $16bn acquisition of WhatsApp - the mobile messaging business that eschews advertising. The purchase, the third-largest so far this year, raised eyebrows from Wall Street to Silicon Valley as dealmakers struggled to justify the pricetag for a company that, as yet, has little demonstrable revenues.
But the theme of technology's largest operators buying up businesses whose prominence is rising - even if their profits are not - is one that bankers and analysts expect to dominate the year ahead.
"It is the most interesting and disruptive time in the market I have ever seen," said Gene Sykes, global co-head of M&A at Goldman Sachs. "The value of the technology incumbents is more at risk than it has ever been. The best way for the established tech companies to overcome the challenge of new forms of technology is for them to be venturesome, as some of the leading companies have recently demonstrated."
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3749 The euro was little changed at $1.3756 as of 8:35 a.m. London time after reaching $1.3705 on March 28, the lowest since Feb. 28 Dollar Index 80.18 Japan Yen 102.97 The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 102.97 yen after reaching 103 yen, the most since March 12. It has fallen 2.2 percent against its Japanese counterpart this year. Swiss Franc 0.8871 Pound 1.6643 Aussie 0.9241 The Aussie declined 0.1 percent to 92.40 U.S. cents after reaching 92.95 on March 28, a level not seen since Nov. 21. It is set for a 3.6 percent quarterly advance. India Rupee 59.90 South Korea Won 1064.70 Brazil Real 2.2540 Egypt Pound 6.9668 South Africa Rand 10.5817
The euro has declined 0.5 percent this year against, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed-nation currencies. The dollar has lost 0.6 percent, while the yen has risen 1.9 percent.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.18 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Yellen is scheduled to deliver remarks at a conference in Chicago today. The U.S. central bank head said this month borrowing costs could rise "around six months" after officials end the Fed's monthly bond-buying program, which currently stands at $55 billion. The Federal Open Market Committee next meets on April 29-30.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3749 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
The European Union's statistics office will say in an initial estimate today that consumer prices in the region rose 0.6 percent this month from a year earlier, compared with a 0.7 percent final figure for February, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.97 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
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Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, MARCH 29, 2014 Here Comes $75 Oil Commodities |
The long-term outlook for global oil prices is lower, perhaps much lower, giving a strong boost to the U.S. economy while potentially crippling the economy of Vladimir Putin's Russia. Vast new discoveries of oil and natural gas in the U.S. and around the globe could drive the oil price to as low as $75 a barrel over the next five years from a current $100.
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Zimbabwe urges AU boycott of EU summit Africa |
"We are waiting to hear if the African Union (AU) decides to go ahead and postpone the summit," the European Union (EU) ambassador in Harare Aldo Dell'Ariccia, told Business Day.
The highest-level encounter between European and African leaders has been in the diary for months and is to be held on April 2 and 3 in the Belgian capital.
But preparations were thrown into disarray on Thursday after a meeting in Addis Ababa of the AU's Peace and Security Council. It ended with a recommendation to the AU's 54 members not to attend the summit because the EU was trying to dictate who should participate. The extraordinary spat seemed to come out of the blue and it was unclear last night if a compromise would be found.
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South Sudanese rebels plan to capture key oil installations to force President Salva Kiir to step down and end more than three months of conflict in the world's newest nation, former Vice President Riek Machar said. Africa |
Fighters allied with Machar, known as the White Army, are "mobilizing" to attack the Paloch oil fields that are the main source of revenue for the country's military, the 60-year-old rebel leader said in a March 27 interview at his bush hideout in Upper Nile state. Machar fled the capital, Juba, in December after the government says he attempted a coup against Kiir.
"We want to take control of the oil field," said Machar, dressed in green military fatigues and wearing gold-rimmed sunglasses. "This is our oil. We must take control of Paloch to deny Salva Kiir revenue to buy more arms."
Upper Nile is South Sudan's only remaining crude-producing state after the insurgency forced oil companies to stop pumping in neighboring Unity state in December. The country, which gained independence from Sudan in July 2011, is producing about 160,000 barrels per day of oil from fields in Upper Nile, according to the government. The state produces Dar Blend, a low-sulfur crude that is prized by Japanese buyers as a cleaner-burning fuel for power plants.
Current output is probably about 150,000 barrels per day, generating about $15 million for the government and oil companies, said Luke Patey, a researcher on South Sudan's oil industry from the Danish Institute for International Studies. Production has declined from a pre-conflict level of 240,000 barrels per day, he said.
Capturing Paloch would "basically shut down" the economy, Patey said in a phone interview on March 29 from Copenhagen. "It's really the choke point for South Sudan government earnings. It's a major piece in the struggle strategically."
Rebel forces have massed in Upper Nile and may advance on Paloch by the end of this week, Major-General Gathoth Gatkuoth, commander of rebel forces in Upper Nile, said in a separate interview on March 27 in the town of Nasir.
"As long as Salva is still in the seat in Juba, then I don't think we are going to realize peace in the country," Gatkuoth said.
White Army fighters and defected soldiers are now ready to capture Paloch, which should have been taken a month ago, said Machar, who is from Unity state.
"We had our own difficulties," he said. "We didn't do enough mobilization, enough sensitization of the importance of the oil field."
The violence in South Sudan has pitted members of Kiir's ethnic Dinka community against members of Machar's Nuer group. The targeting of Nuer people in Juba by security forces loyal to Kiir has divided South Sudan into "tribes" and "discredited" the president, said Machar, who denies Kiir's allegations he tried to stage a coup.
"I think he should be honest to himself and see that getting a solution would mean him stepping down," Machar said. Capturing Paloch after retaking Malakal will force Kiir to "talk," he said.
The proposed forces from Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi would also secure vital infrastructure such as oil installations, IGAD said this month.
The deployment would be "hostile" and treated the same as Uganda's army fighting alongside South Sudan's military, Machar said.
"They've no right to deploy in our oil fields," he said. "If they want to colonize us we will fight them."
Glaxo to invest millions in factories and jobs for Africa http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/pharmaceuticalsandchemicals/10732194/Glaxo-to-invest-millions-in-factories-and-jobs-for-Africa.html
Sir Andrew Witty, the chief executive, will make the announcement at the EU-Africa Business Summit in Brussels. He will also announce investment in research and development activities in Africa.
GSK considers Africa to be at an economic "tipping point" and believes it will be one of the world's most important growth drivers within 20 years.
GSK currently brings in around £500m in revenues from the Sub-Saharan region, a tiny fraction of its £26.5bn sales.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.67% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5808 [Rand is Right at chart Resistance] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9673 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +20.14% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.17% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
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President Jonathan is safe and well - Presidency assures Africa |
Presidential spokesman, Reuben Abati has denied speculations that the Aso Rock Presidential Villa was under attack early Sunday morning after prolonged gunshots were heard.
The usual quiet and heavily militarised area was a picture of confusion after elements suspected to be affiliated with the dreaded Islamic militant sect, Boko Haram reportedly launched an attack against the Headquarters of the State Secutity Service (SSS) in close proximity to the Presidential Villa.
Abati tweeted that President Jonathan is "safe and well".
"What happened at the SSS HQ this morning was an attempted jailbreak which has been effectively foiled. There is no cause for alarm.
"What happened at the SSS HQs has nothing to do with the Villa. President Jonathan is safe & well. Thank you for your concern & support," he tweeted.
We shall bring you more details as the story unfolds.
Detainees suspected of being members of Islamist militant group Boko Haram overpowered their guards at a prison near Nigeria's presidential villa in Abuja, seizing a rifle and triggering a gun battle that killed 21 people, security officials said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-nigeria-jailbreak-idUSBREA2T0O620140330
The prisoners struck on Sunday as the guards from Nigeria's State Security Service (SSS) came in to feed them at their headquarters' prison near the residence of President Goodluck Jonathan, SSS spokeswoman Marilyn Ogar said.
The military was deployed to quell the unrest. Ogar did not say how many of the dead were inmates or security personnel.
A security source said at least one guard was killed in the gun fight before the military turned up.
An increase in attacks by Boko Haram and uncontrolled reprisals by Nigeria's security forces has seen the death toll in North East Nigeria rise to at least 1,500 people, more than half of whom are civilians, in the first three months of 2014, Amnesty International http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/nigeria-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity-violence-escalates-north-east-2014-03-31
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.32% 2014 Africa |
Ghana's debt outlook was lowered to negative from stable by Fitch Ratings, which said the government's policy credibility is at risk from above-target budget deficits for the past two years. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/fitch-lowers-ghana-s-rating-outlook-as-deficits-breach-target.html
Ghana's fiscal deficit last year expanded to 10.8 percent of gross domestic product, from an estimate of 10.2 percent in November, as tax revenue declined and spending on wages increased, according to the Finance Ministry. The gap had ballooned to 12.1 percent of GDP before elections in 2012, exceeding the government's 9 percent target.
"Policy credibility has been significantly weakened following two years of double-digit and larger-than-expected budget deficits," Fitch said in a note today.
Fitch maintained Ghana's credit rating at B, five steps below investment grade, after cutting it by one level in October.
The International Monetary Fund said last month the West African nation may miss its goal of narrowing the gap to 8.5 percent of GDP this year if action is not taken to boost sluggish economic growth and tame inflationary pressure.
Fitch said it forecasts a budget deficit of 9.3 percent this year and 8.2 percent in 2015. Inflation is projected to average 15 percent in 2014, it said.
The cedi declined 20 percent against the dollar last year and has fallen a further 12 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency weakened 0.1 percent to 2.6925 per dollar by 4:44 p.m. in the capital, Accra.
Ghana's cedi, the worst-performing African currency in the first quarter, could depreciate another 20 percent this year as foreign-exchange reserves recede and inflation accelerates, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/jpmorgan-sees-ghana-s-cedi-dropping-20-on-inflation-reserves.html
The U.S. investment bank, which cut Ghana's gross domestic product forecast for 2014, said lower growth will affect revenue generation and widen the budget deficit to 10 percent of GDP against the government's target of 8.5 percent. Inflation quickened to 14 percent in February, climbing for a sixth consecutive month, as the government stopped utility subsidies and the cedi weakened. It climbed from 13.8 percent in January, above the central bank's target of 9.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points.
"Bank of Ghana has revised up its inflation forecasts," Pellegrini said. "It sees inflation staying above the target band until 2015, with risks tilted to the upside on the weakening cedi and slower-than-planned fiscal consolidation."
JPMorgan cut the economic growth forecast to 5.2 percent given the West African nation's erratic power supply and uncertainty around commodity prices, Pellegrini said. The government's GDP estimate for this year is 8 percent.
Ghana's gross foreign-exchange reserves dropped to $5.3 billion in January from $5.6 billion the previous month, the central bank said March 19.
The currency of the world's second-biggest cocoa producer slumped 20 percent against the dollar last year. It is 12 percent weaker in the first quarter, the most among 24 African currencies monitored by Bloomberg. The cedi slipped 0.1 percent to 2.6925 per dollar by 4:40 p.m. in Accra, the capital, declining for a second day.
24-MAR-2014 :: Mixed Performance continues to be witnessed in Africa's Markets http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2403.pdf
This year there has been a great deal more differentiation, more nuance. Egypt is the stand-out in 2014 with the benchmark EGX30 at a more than five-year high plus a blistering 25.29 per cent so far. Egyptian markets had become very oversold and Saudi and GCC support [ex Qatar] for Egypt has evidently tipped the scales.
Ghana has posted a +11.4 per cent return in 2014 but nearly all of that has been eroded by the Cedi [Ghana Currency] in free fall. Ghana's Eurobond has a 9 per cent handle and sentiment has soured so much, it is entirely feasible that Ghana might print a double digit yield. Ghana is a near perfect harbinger of what can go wrong when you front load your recurrent expenditure in the expectation that revenues are a rising tide. The open question is whether, Ghana is in the cockpit or whether the markets will simply elbow the Government aside.
The Zambia Kwacha is the worse performing currency versus the dollar so far in Africa in 2014 and had retreated 13 per cent through Friday morning.
The Kwacha [70 per cent of Zambia's revenues are received from copper] had moved in near perfect lockstep with copper which had retreated by nearly the exact same amount in 2014 i.e 13 per cent. The Zambian authorities took some dramatic steps on Friday and scrapped two laws restricting foreign-exchange trade, triggering the kwacha's biggest gain against the dollar in 15 months.
Both the Ghana and the Zambia debacles are informing us that the markets once so benign are now baring their fangs and how easy it is for policy makers to lose control to the markets. Ghana and Zambia are a shot across a lot of African bows.
The Monetary Policy Committee increased the key lending rate to 12 percent from 10.25 percent, the Lusaka-based central bank said in an e-mailed statement today. Last month the MPC increased the rate by half a percentage point. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/zambia-raises-key-rate-to-record-high-to-contain-surge-in-prices.html
Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda a week ago scrapped two laws restricting trade in foreign currency in a bid to support the kwacha. Inflation quickened for the fifth straight month to 7.7 percent in March, the highest since November 2011, the Lusaka-based Central Statistical Office said yesterday.
Papers printed headlines like "Mwani is money", "A gift from the ocean" and "Mama, mwani and money". http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26770151
It transformed the lives of the women in Zanzibar. They were able to support their families.
According to the government, the sector used to employ 23,000 people - 90% of whom were women.
But lately, Ms Jidawi says, "a lot of women are complaining that the seaweed is dying. A lot of women have therefore left seaweed farming".
But exports fell by 4,000 tonnes last year from the 2012 high of 15,000 tonnes.
"The quality of seaweed in Zanzibar is much better than the others," says Khamis Issa Mohammed, secretary-general of the Zanzibar Exporters Association.
But he concedes that his competitors have the advantage of being closer to the market.
Seaweed from Zanzibar is exported to China, Korea, Vietnam, Denmark, Spain, France and the US.
It is used as a base for cosmetics, lotions, toothpaste, medicines and food - in China, for instance, it is eaten as a vegetable.
At its peak, the trade contributed almost $8m (£5m) a year to the Zanzibar economy. Half of that, says Mr Mohammed, went straight into the pockets of the farmers.
A Belgian woman was wounded in a machete attack in a Mozambican region which is being transformed by a rush of foreign investment in newly found natural gas, police said on Saturday. http://news.yahoo.com/belgian-woman-wounded-mozambique-machete-attack-174200681.html
The woman nearly had her hand chopped off in the overnight attack at a house in a village near Pemba, a city in north Mozambique.
"Police registered a case yesterday (Friday) of an assault on a property in which a woman of Belgian nationality was injured," Capo Delgado province police spokesman Chaaguro Momad told AFP by telephone.
Crime has been very rare in the area, according to locals.
"In the seven years we have been living here we have never had an incident of this kind," the owner of the tourist Ilala Lodge, George Korb, told AFP.
The face of Pemba city, a previously remote, palm tree fringed coastal town, is changing fast due to billions of dollars pouring into the building of plants to process recently discovered natural gas.
Pemba Airport #Mozambique #Africa 663 days ago http://www.twitpic.com/9t4tnb
Pemba #Mozambique from the Air #Africa 663 days ago http://www.twitpic.com/9t4u1g
A Bull Market of a Different Kind WSJ Subscriber http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303563304579445382496815614?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303563304579445382496815614.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009
NORMAN ADAMI IS bouncing down a dirt track in the back of a safari truck when he spots his prized possession: a cape buffalo with what happens to be $2.6 million worth of hoof, hide and recurved horn on its one-ton frame. He quickly grabs the Leica camera hanging around his neck. "Beautiful," Adami says.
Wealthy investors in South Africa are jumping into an especially exotic asset class - big game animals. Prices for trophy animals are up more than 50% over the last six years. WSJ's Patrick McGroarty reports.
Thirty yards away in the acacia scrub stands Horizon, the big bull that three wealthy breeders bought for that record sum at a game auction in 2012. Horizon wrinkles his nose at the truck, full of tanned men in khaki, then squares his shoulders and shakes his horns. They stretch nearly 4 1/2 feet across his head.
Picture taken, Adami cracks open a beer, and the truck turns back toward a thatched lodge on the 3,700-acre ranch, about 120 miles north of Johannesburg in South Africa's Limpopo province. When he is not on safari, Adami is chairman of SABMiller's operations in South Africa. But on this occasion, he and Horizon's two other owners have come, each in his own helicopter, to hash out a business plan for the trophy bull and his herd of 40 buffalo cows. Altogether, it's quite a pricey gathering of animals, worth an estimated $7 million.
"We're busy negotiating everything tonight," says Adami, a chain-smoking 59-year-old with a salt-and-pepper mustache and the even keel of a hostage negotiator. "There's huge potential," he says. "Huge opportunity that lies before us."
Adami is bullish on what must be one of the world's more exotic investments: African-game breeding. With a steady flow of hunters from around the globe drawn to the romance of the African wild, hunting ranches here are reporting a brisk boost in business. But a select pack of well-off investors say the real sport--and the real money--is in breeding the animals that stock those ranches. The more impressive the specimen from a sought-after species, the more impressive the money.
It's a business that takes some getting used to; some animal lovers can think of few things more appalling than supplying rare and majestic African creatures to ranches for the sake of sport hunting. Biologists argue as well that investors trying to breed animals with special attributes like long horns or unusually colored hides could be exposing some of these species to harmful side effects.
And yet, from a purely financial standpoint, it's hard to argue with the returns that supersized breeding can bring. According to Vleissentraal, a top South African livestock auction company, prices for the biggest cape buffalo, sable antelope and other prized species rose 50 percent over the past six years. Total turnover at wildlife auctions was more than $100 million last year, a huge jump from $18.3 million in 2009, says Flippie Cloete, a professor of agricultural economics at North-West University in South Africa, who studies this curious corner of breeding.
While big-game breeding was never a middle-of-the-road business, these days $1 million is barely enough to get started in the big leagues. A run-of-the-herd buffalo bull costs about $200,000, and those with the biggest horns sell for well over $1 million. In 2013, the six-month auction season set new records for the purchase of four of the species breeders covet most: buffalo, roan antelope and two rare color variants prized by hunters--impala with black rather than tan hides, and wildebeest with golden pelts rather than the standard bluish-black.
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Kenyan president says tourism sector 'on its knees' after attacks Kenyan Economy |
"We all have a responsibility to bring this to an end. Tourism has been greatly affected by these terror activities. The industry which contributes 10 percent to the GDP is virtually on its knees," Kenyatta said.
Tourist arrivals in Kenya in the first five months of 2013 were down 15 percent on the previous year as visitors stayed away, worried by attacks blamed on Somalia's al Shabaab rebel group and by fears of trouble around elections in March, which in the event passed off peacefully. Full-year tourist figures have not been published yet.
The tourism sector employs 150,000 people in a country hard up for jobs. Kenyatta's own family owns the Heritage Group of hotels that range from a beach resort in Mombasa to an Indian Ocean island hideaway in Lamu, and others in the Maasai Mara National Reserve in the great Rift Valley.
Kenyatta ordered police to stop taking bribes from suspects arrested on suspicion of being linked to the attacks. He said action would be taken against "the fools who take bribes and allow criminals to commit crimes."
Kenya Grants Conditional Approval for Sale of Essar Telecom http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/kenya-grants-conditional-approval-for-safaricom-airtel-purchase.html
Kenya's telecommunications regulator granted conditional approval to Safaricom Ltd. and Airtel Kenya Ltd.'s joint offer to buy Essar Telecom Kenya Ltd., two days after Safaricom threatened to pull out of the deal.
The acquisition can proceed subject to conditions including the payment by Safaricom and Airtel of license fees totaling $5.4 million each, Communications Authority of Kenya Director-General Francis Wangusi told reporters today in the capital, Nairobi. Essar Telecom is also required to pay all outstanding regulatory fees, he said.
Safaricom, 40 percent owned by Vodafone Plc, and Airtel, a unit of New Delhi-based Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI), plan to spend "in the hundreds of millions of dollars" acquiring Essar, which operates Kenya's third-biggest mobile company, Safaricom Corporate Affairs Director Nzioka Waita said March 26. Safaricom threatened to to withdraw from the acquisition after the regulator failed to acknowledge receipt of the companies' application, he said.
"The matter has received due attention from the authority," Wangusi said today. "The parties have been notified of the decision of the authority."
Safaricom plans to buy Essar's network base stations and transmission equipment. The company failed to meet the regulator's quality-of-service criteria in 2012-13, achieving a compliance level of 50 percent compared with the minimum of 80 percent, which the company must meet to obtain a new license, the regulator said in July. Safaricom's permit expires in June and will cost $27 million to renew, according to the CAK.
Airtel, the second-biggest operator, is set to take over Essar's 2.75 million subscribers and licenses. That would boost Airtel's Kenyan market share to 26.4 percent from 17.6 percent, according to Bloomberg Industries.
Other conditions listed by the regulator include Safaricom and Airtel submitting a plan on implementing a national roaming service and a written commitment on how mobile-phone users will benefit from the service, Wangusi said. In addition Safaricom has to share both its "passive and active" infrastructure with its competitors, he said.
"We have not given them difficult conditions that should make them say no," he said.
Shares in Safaricom have gained 13 percent so far this year to 12.30 shillings at the close in Nairobi today.
Kenya police kill 2 suspects in church killings http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Kenya-police-kill-2-suspects-in-church-killings-5358301.php
A Kenyan official says police have killed two men suspected of being terrorists who fatally shot six people in a church.
Mombasa County police chief Robert Kitur said Friday the gunmen were killed by officers after a gunfight in the Likoni area of the coastal city of Mombasa.
Three gunmen opened fire inside the Joyland Church in Likoni on Sunday, killing two people on the spot while four others died in hospital from bullet wounds.
Kenya has experienced dozens of small attacks, many on churches, after al-Qaida-linked Somali militants known as al-Shabab vowed to avenge Kenya sending troops to Somalia in October 2011 to fight the militants.
The body of the a worshipper lies on the floor inside Kenyan Joyland church in Likoni, near Mombasa, Kenya Sunday, March 23, 2014. http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Kenya-police-kill-2-suspects-in-church-killings-5358301.php
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Kenya in Talks With Standard Bank, AfDB on Airport Project Funds Kenyan Economy |
Kenya's government is in talks with four companies, including Standard Bank Group Ltd. (SBK), Africa's biggest lender, about funding the construction of a $653 million airport terminal, the Kenya Airports Authority said.
The state is in discussions with the African Development Bank, China Development Bank Corp. and Sunnyvale, California-based AAE Systems Inc. about funding 85 percent of the project cost, Managing Director Lucy Mbugua told reporters today in the capital, Nairobi. The first phase of construction of the new terminal in Nairobi will begin in July and is expected to end in 2017, she said.
"They have already given us their terms and we are in discussion," Mbugua said.
Kenya is expanding its Jomo Kenyatta International Airport as it seeks to boost arrivals of tourists who are the second-biggest source of foreign-currency earnings in East Africa's largest economy. The new terminal will have the capacity to handle 20 million passengers a year, compared with the 7 million that the existing terminal, built in 1978, can process.
Telecoms sector regulator the Communications Authority of Kenya (CAK) on Friday set 13 conditions that Safaricom, Airtel and Essar's yuMobile must meet to complete the planned takeover of assets - key among them the opening up Safaricom's M-Pesa agency network to rival operators. http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Regulator-sets-tough-conditions-for-mobile-firms/-/539546/2263526/-/3laksfz/-/index.html
Francis Wangusi, the CAK director-general, told a Press conference that approval of the deal now depends on "Safaricom and Airtel submitting to the authority, for approval, a framework for sharing agent outlets for various mobile consumer services including money transfer services and SIM registration centres."
"Approval of the buyout now depends on the three operators. Unless these conditions are met we are not going to approve the transaction and the faster they respond to the conditions the quicker we will conclude the matter," he said.
Conclusions
I cannot see Mr. Collymore accepting this as a condition precedent.
He should just let Yu expire, in my humble opinion.
Africa's digital money heads to Europe March 30, 2014 9:32 pm on.ft.com/1fEOL5p
The mobile payment system that has revolutionised business and banking in sub-Saharan Africa is to come to Europe as Vodafone seeks to spread the popular digital currency outside emerging markets.
Vodafone has acquired an e-money licence to operate financial services in Europe, with plans to launch M-Pesa (which means mobile money in Swahili) in Romania as a first step to potential expansion in the region.
M-Pesa has become so popular in parts of Africa that it is now a virtual currency, offering a secure means of payment for people who do not have easy access to banking services. A mobile phone text message is all that is needed to pay for everything from bills and schools fees to flights and fish, and means that the mobile phone can double as an office for the continent's smaller entrepreneurs.
Vodafone now hopes to win over an estimated 7m Romanians who mainly use cash.
Michael Joseph, Vodafone director of mobile money, said that the European e-money license would allow Vodafone to operate M-Pesa in other markets, although he indicated that the focus would be on central and eastern Europe.
"There are one or two [countries] we are looking at but [these are] unlikely to be in western Europe in the next year or so," he said, adding that countries with a large migrant population such as Italy were potential markets.
There was also the chance to extend the platform into savings, loans and insurance in the same way Vodafone had done in Africa, he added. Within little more than a year of launching its M-Pesa-based loans and savings platform, M-Shwari, at the end of 2012, Vodafone's Kenyan operator banked more than $270m.
Vodafone has also considered expanding M-Pesa to countries where it has partnership arrangements with the local telecoms groups but no mobile telecoms business.
In Kenya, where M-Pesa launched in 2007, the platform is so widely used that a third of the country's $44bn economy washes through the system, sold by 79,000 agents nationwide. It has since been extended to Tanzania, Egypt, Lesotho and Mozambique.
More recently, M-Pesa has been introduced in India, where Vodafone is seeing rapid growth given the large numbers of people without bank accounts. More than 1m people have registered in India, although Vodafone expects that will accelerate if revised regulations being considered by the Reserve Bank of India ease restrictions on such money platforms.
The launch comes amid controversy over other digital means of payment such as Bitcoin. However, M-Pesa is not a digital currency rather a means of exchanging money already on mobile phone accounts.
Romanian M-Pesa customers will be able to transfer as little as one new Romanian leu (0.22 euro cents) up to 30,000 lei (EURO 6,715) per day.
"The majority of people in Romania have at least one mobile device, but more than one-third of the population do not have access to conventional banking," Mr Joseph said.
M-Pesa had about 16.8m active customers at the end of last year, generating about EURO 900m in transactions per month. While M-Pesa was originally conceived as a means to retain customers in Kenya's mobile phone market, it is now profitable in its own right with $143m in revenues from the 18.2m M-Pesa customers in Kenya alone, or about 18 per cent of overall country sales
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Safaricom share price data and Earnings Releases here +13.364% 2014 Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 0.05/- Closing Price: 12.30 Total Shares Issued: 40044601000.00 Market Capitalization: 492,548,592,300 EPS: 0.44 PE: 27.955
First Half Earnings for the Period ended 30 September 2013 H1 Revenue 69.201287b versus 59.118149b +17.1% H1 Cost of Sales [30.215501b] versus [27.529922b] +9.8% H1 Gross Profit 38.985786b versus 31.88227b +23.4% H1 Operating Expenses [22.829488b] versus [19.206278b] +18.9% H1 PBT 15.908812b versus 11.509998b +38.2% H1 PAT 11.260242b versus 7.7774849b +44.8% H1 EPS 0.28 versus 0.19 +47.4%
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BOC Kenya reports FY EPS 2013 +2.97% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 150.00 Total Shares Issued: 19525446.00 Market Capitalization: 2,928,816,900 EPS: 5.20 PE: 28.846
FY 2013 versus FY 2012 FY 2013 Revenue 1.242602b versus 1.294550b -4.00% FY EBITDA 231.125m versus 230.068m FY Net Finance Income 77.267m versus 56.624m FY Profit before Tax 308.392m versus 286.692m +8.00% FY Profit after Tax 202.636m versus 197.374m FY EPS 5.20 versus 5.05 +2.97% FY Dividend of 2.60 a share making that a Total Dividend of 5.20 FY Dividend worth 1.733% of Yield at a Price of 150.00
Conclusions
Looks richly priced on a PE Basis but that might be a mistake.
East African Portland Cement Company reports H1 PBT 2013 -54.576% Earnings here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzM%3D
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 93.50 Total Shares Issued: 90000000.00 Market Capitalization: 8,415,000,000 EPS: 19.73 PE: 4.739
First Half Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 6 months through 31st December 2012 First Half revenue 4.567292b versus 4.549385b First Cost of Sales [3.247919b] versus [3.204266b] First Half Gross Profit 1.319373b versus 1.345119b First Half Other operating income 126.428m versus 42.447m First Half Administration and selling expenses [1.260462b] versus [1.000298b] +26.008% First Half Profit from operations 185.339m versus 387.268m First Half Finance Income 130.630m versus 158.750m First Half Finance Costs [144.939m] versus [169.498m] First Half Profit before Tax 171.030m versus 376.520m -54.576% First Half Full Year Profit after Tax 183.460m versus 327.193m -43.92% First Half Earnings per share 2.03 versus 3.68 -44.83% Fair Value of Loan Swaps 177.504m versus 148.692m [Portland benefits from a weaker Yen] No Interim Dividend
Conclusions
soft earnings with a +26.008% spike in Admin and Selling Expenses taking a big bite. Lots of Talk around the Value of Real Estate which could be sold to make EAPC debt free and have some left over. It is this chatter which has seen EAPC rally 36.49% through 2014 upto March.
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.501 http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.656% 2014 http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.68% 2014 http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
4,972.45 13.83 +0.28%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
MO JILLO @emmjeey @Ma3Route: What remains of the Prado that hit a pedestrian.. So sad for both the pedestrian n motorist. pic.twitter.com/hNADgjX5ka
Riding along the Shore Lake Elmentaita @SerenaHotels http://www.twitpic.com/chc1u0
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