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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 10th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Mindspeak with EAC SECGEN Dr. @rsezibera RICH TV
Africa


07-APR-2014 Snapshots from South Africa and Its role in Africa's Economy
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Happy Birthday Hannah.

"You go away for a long time and return a different person - you never
come all the way back."
-- Paul Theroux

LIGHTS OFF | Baan used a helicopter to capture the breadth of
Manhattan's power outage following Hurricane Sandy Photo by Iwan Baan
for New York
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303563304579445540585409618?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303563304579445540585409618.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

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Def. Sec. Chuck Hagel meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at Great Hall of the People in Beijing
Law & Politics


@NarendraModi is going to win this all ends up

http://media2.intoday.in/btmt/images/stories/narendra-modi_505_022614043035_033114041848.jpg

David Ignatius: Putin's borrowed playbook

http://www.jconline.com/article/20140409/OPINION/304090010/David-Ignatius-Putin-s-borrowed-playbook

The West has made NATO's military alliance the heart of its response
to Russia's power grab in Ukraine. But we may be fighting the wrong
battle: The weapons President Vladimir Putin has used in Crimea and
eastern Ukraine look more like paramilitary "covert action" than
conventional military force.

Putin, the former KGB officer, may in fact be taking a page out of
America's playbook during the Ronald Reagan presidency, when the
Soviet empire began to unravel thanks to a relentless U.S.
covert-action campaign. Rather than confront Moscow head on, Reagan
nibbled at the edges, by supporting movements that destabilized
Russian power in Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Angola, and finally Poland
and eastern Europe.

It was a clever American strategy back then, pushing a wounded Soviet
Union and opportunistically exploiting local grievances, wherever
possible. And it's an equally clever Russian approach now, offering
maximum gain at minimum potential cost.

The parallel was drawn for me this week by John Maguire, a former CIA
paramilitary covert-action officer, who served in the contras program
in Nicaragua and later in the Middle East. "At the end of the day,
Putin is a case officer," says Maguire. "He watched what we did in the
1980s, and now he's playing it back against us."

From the beginning in Crimea, Putin ran the campaign there as a
"black" operation. Russian troops wore no insignia, to preserve a fig
leaf of deniability. Russian officials, from Putin on down, insisted
they weren't seizing Crimea even as their forces consolidated
positions. They controlled information flows, and coordinated their
messaging.

Conclusions


Putin is geopolitically subtle.

read more


Nel: She is doing everything to make you happy, it's all about you. #Pistorius
Law & Politics


In an interview with the UK's Daily Mirror newspaper, her mother,
June, said the apology "left me unmoved. I knew it was coming".

She said: "He has been very dramatic, the vomiting and crying... I
don't know whether he's acting."

read more



African Warlord Kony Stays Elusive Despite Offensive WSJ Subscriber
Law & Politics


On a routine foot patrol in December, Ugandan troops bumped into a
dozen rebel fighters belonging to the world's most-wanted warlord,
Joseph Kony. After a 15-minute shootout, the rebels vanished into the
jungle of neighboring Central African Republic, taking with them a
chance to catch him.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Kony has led hundreds of fighters of
his Lord's Resistance Army across northern Uganda, South Sudan, Congo
and the Central African Republic, killing at least 100,000 people and
abducting more than 20,000 children, according to Christian Aid, a
U.K.-based charity. In 2012, an U.S. charity group called Invisible
Children released a 30-minute Internet video titled "Kony 2012"
showcasing his violent history.

Following the video's viral popularity, the U.S. government announced
a $5 million reward for anyone with information leading to Mr. Kony's
arrest.

For nearly three years, Mr. Kony and scores of his fighters have
eluded a U.S.-backed offensive in the jungles of Central Africa. When
the U.S. deployed military advisers to help African troops in 2011,
many Kony watchers expected a quick capture. But the cagey guerrilla
fighter split his rebels into small units, and headed deeper into the
jungles, living off wild fruit and tubers.

"Kony and his fighters are constantly on the run," said Lt. Col. Paddy
Ankunda, Uganda's military spokesman. "They have adopted animal-like
survival instincts."

Col. Kevin Leahy, the commander of the U.S. counter-LRA force, said
stepped-up operations by U.S. and Ugandan forces have forced Mr. Kony
to change tactics and abandon offensive operations.

"He has lost fighters; he has lost the grip on his organization; he
doesn't go on the offense," Col. Leahy said. "He hides."

The pursuit of the rebel leader has exposed the limits of high-tech
surveillance and weaponry when pitted against a low-tech target. Now,
the Pentagon is pumping more resources into this hunt, doubling up on
its earlier bet.

In March, the U.S. dispatched four long-range tilt-rotor aircraft,
CV-22s Ospreys, as well as cargo and air-refueling planes, to boost
the offensive. Defense officials say the new aircraft are not only
allowing the U.S. to move Ugandan troops deeper into jungles, but they
also transport with more surprise. To reach such remote areas in the
past, the U.S. and Ugandan forces would have to create refueling
zones, tipping LRA forces as to where the troops would be searching.

"We can move a larger force a long way and get to areas where
essentially the LRA has been out of reach," Col. Leahy said last week.

On Tuesday, Gen. David Rodriguez, the head of Africa command, said the
U.S. has begun to pull out the additional aviation assets, and could
return once the African Union regional task force hunting for Mr. Kony
develops new leads on his whereabouts. "It will depend on the
intelligence the African Union regional task force develops," Gen.
Rodriguez said. "We will come back at their request."

The U.S.-backed offensive has helped to reduce Mr. Kony's fighters to
about 250, from as many as 3,000 six years ago. But Mr. Kony and his
devoted fighters have hunkered down in densely forested terrain,
between the borders of the Central African Republic, Democratic
Republic of Congo and South Sudan.

Although Mr. Kony sees himself as prophet of God, those who track him
say his elusiveness owes more to evolving guerrilla tactics.

Mr. Kony's fighters have largely abandoned kidnapping, which had
slowed them down. They have scaled down raids on civilian food
supplies to evade troops who stalk river banks and townships. Mr. Kony
relies on trusted human couriers to send messages to his commanders,
avoiding technology that can be used to track his movements.

"He has been very savvy on how he has maneuvered these forces for as
long as he had," said a defense official in Washington who works on
the Counter-LRA mission. "He is also pretty paranoid."

Another factor in favor of Mr. Kony: Africa's recent strife. Regional
countries such as Congo, Central African Republic and South
Sudan--consumed with their own rebellions--haven't fulfilled pledges to
contribute troops to the offensive. Meanwhile, a coup in the C.A.R.
has forced the U.S. to stop training forces from that country. And
conflict in South Sudan has reduced its military's participation,
leaving only Ugandans in actual combat.

U.S. and Ugandan forces are trying to erode what remains of Mr. Kony's
forces. They have dropped one million leaflets in LRA-affected areas,
encouraging rebel fighters to defect. The leaflets, developed in
several local languages by Invisible Children, promise good treatment
by the Ugandan government for those who leave Mr. Kony.

The Counter-LRA force is putting a priority on defections. Col. Leahy
said 99% of remaining LRA fighters are themselves abductees. One
recent defector he said was kidnapped when he was 10 and spent the
past 15 years in the bush. "No one wants to victimize the same people
twice," Col Leahy said.

A former LRA fighter who defected to the Ugandan army in 2008 said Mr.
Kony inspires both devotion and terror. New recruits are forced to
execute captives. Mr. Kony also warns those who consider fleeing will
be pursued by the angry spirits of their victims.

"He will look at you in the eyes and tell you that he is aware of your
plans to escape," said the former fighter, who said he fled after a
Uganda-led assault scattered his unit in northeastern Congo.

Capturing Mr. Kony remains a tall order. During the battle in
December, along the bank of the Ouarra River, Ugandan troops wounded
several rebel fighters, including Okot Odhiambo, Mr. Kony's deputy.

A couple of other wounded rebels later surrendered to the army. They
revealed Mr. Odhiambo later died, but said Mr. Kony wasn't in their
group. The rebels had been relying on couriers to keep in touch with
their commander, but said they hadn't heard from him in weeks.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3848 The euro held steady near $1.3849, but was up about 1
percent on the week and remained well above a low of $1.3672 plumbed
on Friday.
Dollar Index 79.53 The dollar index hit a three-week low of 79.430
.DXY earlier on Thursday, well below a seven-week high of 80.599 set
last Friday. It last stood at 79.526, down about 1.1 percent for the
week.
Japan Yen 101.76
Swiss Franc 0.8795
Pound 1.6795 The pound has appreciated more than 9 percent against the
dollar in the past year
Aussie 0.9408 The Australian dollar rose to as high as $0.9440, its
highest level since last November.
India Rupee 60.255
South Korea Won 1039.51
Brazil Real 2.1862
Egypt Pound 6.9751
South Africa Rand 10.4010

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.53 [Dollar Price Action is shocking]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (NZPMISA), which tracks the greenback
against 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,005.72 after
touching 1,004.70, the lowest level since Oct. 30.

"The FOMC minutes are dovish. We thought rate hikes would come sooner,
but these expectations have receded."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-10/dollar-near-5-month-low-on-rate-outlook-kiwi-highest-since-2011.html

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3848

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.6795 [reached $1.6823 on Feb. 17, the
highest level since 2009]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

2-AUG-2013 :: I think you need to be net long sterling

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net
long sterling.

I reckon There is an outside chance that UK property, which is
projected to rally 25 per cent over five years achieves that in 24 to
30 months.

I like looking for narratives that are embedded and entrenched and
where I can see an Inflexion Point.

The United Kingdom, Europe and the US have inflected. Watch closely
how the narrative starts changing.

Australia Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 0.9408

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

A year after Nicolas Ghesquière's reign ended at Balenciaga, the news
that he would succeed Marc Jacobs as Louis Vuitton's creative director
touched off a rare hullabaloo in the fashion world: What daring! What
a triumph!

http://www.vanityfair.com/style/2014/04/nicolas-ghesquiere-louis-vuitton-creative-director

What I find most interesting in fashion is that it has to reflect our
time," he says. "You have to witness your own moment. People used to
define me as a futurist designer, but, you know, the future is now for
me."

Nicolas Ghesquière on the terrace of the Louis Vuitton
headquarters, in Paris.

http://www.vanityfair.com/style/2014/04/nicolas-ghesquiere-louis-vuitton-creative-director

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1316.36 [I remain a Bear and believe the
2014 High has already been posted]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

read more


Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 103.29 [Its called a Squeeze]
Commodities


 The contract rose $1.04 to $103.60 yesterday, the highest close since
March 3. The volume of all futures traded was about 28 percent above
the 100-day average. Prices have advanced 5.2 percent this year.

read more




Pakistan issued a US$1bn five-year bond yielding 7.25% and a US$1bn 10-year bond yielding 8.25% on Tuesday amid US$7bn in orders.
Frontier Markets


The 10-year note priced with a lower yield than the 8.625% Zambia paid
on a US$1bn 10-year bond on Monday. Yet, Zambia is rated B+/B by
Standard & Poor's and Fitch while Pakistan is rated Caa1/B- by Moody's
and Standard & Poor's. Sri Lanka is rated B1/B+/BB-.

read more


"This increase in smartphone penetration rates leads to the expectation that the mobile data demand per user in SSA will increase from approximately 0.08 GB per month in 2012 to 0.45 GB per month in 2016,"
Africa


"This translates into a mobile data growth of an average of 119% per
year," said Roos.

Smartphone usage in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to surge by 40%
each year until 2017, placing a strain on local networks according to
research firm Frost & Sullivan.

This is according to an analysis report that notes data demand in the
region is also expected to reach an average 0.45GB per month per user
by 2016.

Demand for mobile broadband internet in most African countries will
likely be driven by the "rise in local content," development of new
mobile applications and the "growth of social media" platforms, says
the research company.

Conclusions

read more


Africa's future is not seen in the rear view mirror @FT Aly-Khan Satchu of Rich Management
Africa


It was Vinod Khosla, who bagged a billion at Sun MicroSystems in
Silicon Valley, who said, 'The future is not seen in the rear view
mirror.'

I started my journey from Mombasa, spent half my life in the City of
London running interest rate trading desks, packed my bags when I
turned 40 and returned home in 2005.

I have a supreme conviction that Africa is the last great convergence
trade in the 21st century. In many respects, the great flattener was
the mobile phone (and with it the mobile internet and the mobile
wallet). Where once the continent was adrift and played a different
riff, the mobile phone connected the continent to itself and the rest
of the world. It was the phone that was the entry ticket into the game
for each and every African. It was a wonderful grass roots, bottoms up
revolutionary thing because every African could own one. Mo Ibrahim
bagged a billion on understanding this simple fact. Sure the resources
in the ground are very valuable but it was the mobile phone that
unlocked the talent of those who walked upon the ground. Without the
phone and ICT, Kenya would have posted zero growth over the last
decade. The generation Y are walking around Nairobi, surfing the 21st
century on their phones. It is a remarkable thing. And with smart
phones costing less than $100 now, this is about to tip and accelerate
again.

read more


The World Bank says that at over $50 billion, Africa's "services exports trail all other developing regions; however, it is expanding annually at about 12%, on average."
Africa


Enel Green Sees Africa as 'Next Big Place' for Renewables

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/enel-green-sees-africa-as-next-big-place-for-renewables.html

Enel Green Power SpA (EGPW), the clean energy company majority owned
by Italy's largest utility, sees Africa as "the next big place" for
renewables as it seeks to expand in markets with faster growth in
power demand.

"We said, what is the next big region of the world where renewables
can come, can grow, and where we can play a role similar to the one we
are playing today in Latin America?" Chief Executive Officer Francesco
Starace said in an interview at his company's Rome headquarters
yesterday. Latin America accounted for 28 percent of the company's
added capacity last year.

The operator of about 8.9 gigawatts of hydroelectric, solar, wind and
alternative energy power plants is focusing on places where
governments are seeking to expand electricity access as developed
nations wind down subsidies for renewable power. The company, which
has operations in 16 countries, is expanding its reach in South Africa
and Morocco and plans to enter Kenya and Egypt, among other nations,
in the next five years.

About 57 percent of Africa's population doesn't have access to
electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. The number
of people without power is forecast to rise 7.5 percent by 2030, to
645 million from 600 million.

Enel Green Power plans to spend about 73 percent of the 5.4 billion
euros ($7.42 billion) it has set aside for growth during the next five
years in emerging markets, according to the 2014-2018 business plan
presented April 3.

In South Africa, the company is planning geothermal and wind projects.
Biomass might be the next type of renewable investment in the country,
Starace said.

The Rift Valley, which stretches across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania,
has "a huge geothermal potential and for us geothermal is very
important," Starace said.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.71% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.399815 [headed to 10.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

The rand appears to have snapped a more than 12 month down trend 07-APR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

BNP Paribas SA (BNP) started talks to buy RCS Investment Holdings
Ltd., a South African provider of consumer credit, from Standard Bank
Group Ltd. and Foschini Group Ltd. for 2.65 billion rand ($254
million)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-10/bnp-paribas-offering-to-buy-south-africa-s-rcs-for-254-million.html

RCS is a joint venture between Foschini, a clothing retailer that owns
55 percent, and Standard Bank, Africa's largest lender. Credit demand
from South Africa's growing black middle class has helped boost
retailers' earnings. BNP, France's biggest bank, first expanded in
South Africa when it bought a controlling stake in Cadiz Holdings
Ltd.'s securities unit in 2011.

Foschini, which may make about 1.4 billion rand, will use the proceeds
of the sale to repurchase its own shares, the Cape Town-based retailer
said in a separate statement today. The company has wanted to reduce
its shareholding in RCS to less than 50 percent since last year
because a large portion of its debt is linked to RCS, it said.

Standard Bank plans to use the additional capital released from the
sale to invest in its African operations, the lender said in an
e-mailed statement. "The proceeds will provide Standard Bank with
leverage for growth opportunities and will help improve the group's
return on equity," it said.

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9759

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +15.35% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,768.11 63.61 +0.83%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.42% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

read more


SABMiller's Hero Taps Into Nostalgia for Biafra in Nigeria
Africa


At the Estate Sports Club in the southeastern Nigerian city of
Onitsha, men troop up to the open-air bar and order a bottle of "Oh
Mpa," the local name for SABMiller Plc's Hero beer.

Oh Mpa means "Oh Father" in Igbo, the language of the area, and is
widely regarded as referring to the late Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu,
who led a failed attempt to secede from Nigeria in the 1960s and set
up an independent nation of Biafra that sparked a 30-month civil war.
With its Hero bottles bearing the rising sun that appeared on the
Biafran flag, SABMiller is tapping into the area's nationalism.

While London-based SABMiller says the presentation of Hero beer
carries no political motivation, it's aiming to create a "local feel"
for its beverage.

"Hero was developed as a result of deep local consumer insight and
positive associations with the Igbo tribe," the company said in a
March 13 e-mailed response to questions. "There is no historic or
political motivation behind the brand and it is in no way designed to
represent a political view."

A giant statue of Ojukwu in military uniform with a rifle slung over
his shoulder stands at the driveway leading to SABMiller's brewery in
Onitsha, the Anambra state's biggest city with more than one million
people.

In response to robust demand for Hero Lager and other drinks,
SABMiller plans to invest $110 million to triple its output capacity
at the 18-month-old Onitsha brewery to 2.1 million hectoliters a year,
the company said in a statement on Jan. 23.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country with about 170 million people,
is the continent's second-largest beer market after South Africa,
growing at an annual volume of 6 percent, according to SABMiller.

The company, which has brewing or beverage interests in 32 African
countries, entered the Nigerian market in 2009 with the purchase of
controlling interests in Pabod Breweries, based in the southern oil
hub of Port Harcourt.

SABMiller is competing in Africa's top oil producer with rivals
including Diageo Plc, which has sold more Guinness in Nigeria than in
the beer's native Ireland since 2007, and Heineken NV (HEIA), which
controls Nigeria Breweries Plc (NB), the country's biggest brewer.

While the two biggest brewers in Nigeria, Heineken BV's unit Nigerian
Breweries Plc and Diageo Plc (DGE)'s Guinness Nigeria Plc, have
experienced slower growth because of higher fuel prices and depressed
consumer income since 2012, SABMiller is pushing lower-cost products,
according to industry analysts. Hero is as much as 40 percent cheaper
than rival lagers.

"SABMiller's approach of going down the price ladder widened their
revenue base given the subdued state of consumer incomes over the last
two years," said Adewale Okunriboye, an analyst covering the industry
at Lagos-based Assets Resource Management Ltd.

In Onitsha, Nigerian Breweries last year bought Life Breweries Ltd.,
and is pushing the Life beer brand to compete with Hero.

"Regional tastes, loyalties and traditions may inspire the growth of
regional brands which the big brewers will eventually have to embrace
to remain competitive," Efemena Esalomi, analyst at Lagos-based Vetiva
Capital Management Ltd.

Otti, dressed in a polo shirt and shorts, appeared to agree with that analysis.

"We needed a beer brand that we could trust, that we could call our
own," Otti said as he raised his glass to his lips for a gulp. "This
is ours; ours is ours!"

read more


At night, gas flares outshine everything else in the Niger River delta except for the lights of Port Harcourt and Benin City.
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.13% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

The open question is whether, Ghana is in the cockpit or whether the
markets will simply elbow the Government aside 24-MAR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2403.pdf

Ghana has posted a +11.4 per cent return in 2014 but nearly all of
that has been eroded by the Cedi [Ghana Currency] in free fall.
Ghana's Eurobond has a 9 per cent handle and sentiment has soured so
much, it is entirely feasible that Ghana might print a double digit
yield. Ghana is a near perfect harbinger of what can go wrong when you
front load your recurrent expenditure in the expectation that revenues
are a rising tide. The open question is whether, Ghana is in the
cockpit or whether the markets will simply elbow the Government aside.

Ghana's Economy Expands 7.1% in 2013 While Inflation Accelerates

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-09/ghana-s-economy-expands-7-1-in-2013-while-inflation-accelerates.html

Ghana's economy expanded 7.1 percent last year, led by faster growth
in banking and insurance services, while inflation soared as the
currency continues to slide.

Banking and insurance surged 23.2 percent, boosting overall growth in
services to 8.9 percent, Philomena Nyarko, an official at the Ghana
Statistical Service, told reporters today in the capital, Accra.
Inflation accelerated for a seventh month to 14.5 percent in March
from 14 percent in the previous month, she said.

Ghana's economy, the biggest in West Africa after Nigeria, is at risk
as the government struggles to contain its budget and current-account
deficits, contributing to the currency's 13 percent plunge against the
dollar this year. Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on Ghana's debt last
month to negative from stable, five months after downgrading the
rating by one level to B.

The cedi fell 0.4 percent against the dollar to 2.73 as of 12:25 p.m. in Accra.

Economic growth slowed last year from 8.8 percent in 2012, Nyarko
said. Industry output, which includes manufacturing and oil
production, expanded 7 percent in 2013 while agriculture rose 5.2
percent.

Angola's $5 billion sovereign wealth fund, sub-Saharan Africa's
second-biggest, has this year made its first investments by buying
fixed income securities but is yet to start financing infrastructure
projects, its chairman said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/09/us-africa-summit-idUSBREA3712520140409

Africa's biggest oil producing nation after Nigeria set up the FSDEA
fund in 2012 to invest foreign exchange reserves and finance economic
diversification and infrastructure but it has been criticized for
making a slow start.

The fund is smaller than Botswana's $6.8 billion Pula Fund but is
likely to become sub-Saharan Africa's largest shortly due to top-ups
estimated at $3.5 billion per year.

Jose Filomeno dos Santos, the eldest son of long-serving President
Jose Eduardo dos Santos, told the Reuters Africa Summit the fund would
now push on and with making investments in the coming months.

"Since the start of the year the FSDEA has been gradually developing
its portfolio through investments in high-grade fixed income
securities but it has not committed to any direct investments yet," he
said.

But the fund will start investing in agriculture, mining,
infrastructure and hospitality projects soon, he added, without giving
details.

The FSDEA plans to invest half its endowment in these sectors, in
Angola and nearby countries to benefit from strong regional economic
growth.

Angola has $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

Dos Santos's appointment last year raised concerns about nepotism,
with critics viewing it as a step towards the 36-year old replacing
his father, who has been in power since 1979.

The younger Dos Santos has dismissed the criticism, pointing to his
experience as the founder of an investment bank in 2008.

Angola's Banco BIC eyes expansion in Africa, overseas

http://businessdayonline.com/2014/04/angolas-banco-bic-eyes-expansion-in-africa-overseas/#.U0YicxZViX1

Isabel dos Santos, daughter of Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos
Santos and who ranks as one of the continent's richest businesswomen,
owns a quarter of BIC Angola. Americo Amorim, one of Portugal's
richest men, also owns 25 percent.

BIC also operates in Portugal, where it bought bailed-out bank BPN in
2012 for 40 million euros, giving it a branch network and client base
that helped BIC Portugal swing to a profit of 2.5 million in 2013 from
losses in the previous years.

BIC is expanding across borders in its own region, having opened an
office in Johannesburg in February and requested a licence to operate
in Namibia.

"We're looking at all the countries around us. Sooner or later the
Southern African Development Community will be even more
interconnected and we have to be ready for the business that will
occur in that economic zone," Teles said, referring to a 15 state
organisation forging political and economic links.

He added that BIC planned to open an office in China, which is
Angola's main oil buyer.

In Brazil, where BIC bought BPN's network, it expects to obtain a
licence from the central bank in the next months. BIC plans to open
branches in several cities and serve a niche of clients which do
business between Brazil, Portugal and Angola.

read more




Oil consumption has doubled in 10 years in Ethiopia, one of Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies and now the region's fifth-largest after leap-frogging Kenya.
Africa


Demand for oil in Ethiopia is seen tripling by 2025, indicative of the
economic transformation under way in Africa's second-most populous
nation which is still better known abroad for the famine of 1984 and
communist-era purges.

Tadesse Tilahun, CEO of National Oil Ethiopia, said untapped crude
deposits in Kenya and Uganda handed governments and investors the
opportunity to construct a refinery able to compete with cheap imports
from India, the Gulf and beyond

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/09/us-africa-summit-noc-idUSBREA3815Z20140409

Namibian trendsetter Loux the Vintage Guru. Photograph: Harness
Hamese and Lukas Amakali

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/09/namibia-hipster-vintage-fashion-africa

read more


Kenya to make wealth leap with new GDP statistics
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is set to achieve the key middle-income economic status next
month following a government-led statistical review that is likely to
increase the size of the country's economy by a fifth to $50bn.

The statistical review follows in the footsteps of Nigeria, where a
similar exercise raised its gross domestic product by 89 per cent to
$510bn, making the country the largest economy in Africa.

The middle-income status - if confirmed - will open the door for extra
borrowing from international institutions and could serve as a
catalyst for further foreign direct investment, analysts said. Telecom
groups, banks and food companies traditionally target new
middle-income countries as key investment destinations.

Benjamin Macharia Muchiri, senior manager at the Kenya National Bureau
of Statistics, said the gross domestic product for 2009, the new base
year, was "about 20 per cent higher than previously estimated". He
added: "Preliminary results for other years between 2006 and 2011 show
revised GDPs going up by between 15 to 25 per cent."

The increase - expected to be announced in May, although 2014
quarterly figures will not be updated until September - would push
Kenya's GDP for 2009 to about $37bn. Applying the same jump to 2013
could put the country's economy above $50bn. At that level, Kenya, a
nation of more than 43m people, will enjoy a GDP per capita of more
than $1,136, up from a current estimate of $943, and within the
benchmark of $1,036 set by the World Bank for middle-income nations.

African countries are revising their GDP figures with the help of
international donors to take into account new booming sectors,
including banking, telecoms and entertainment. The revisions are
providing a comprehensive estimate of their economies and will
probably act as a further magnet attracting foreign investors.

Kenya will become the fourth-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa,
behind Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, according to IMF data. The
east African country is already a regional heavyweight, with a
developing stock market heavily backed by foreign money, consistent
domestic consumer-driven growth and the prospect of a boost in the
next few years from new oil and gas exploration should early finds
turn out to be commercially viable.

Kenya's bureau of statistics, which is changing the base year for
calculating GDP from 2001 to 2009, says the upward revision reflects
previously uncaptured data that shows growth in the manufacturing,
agricultural, transport and communication sectors.

"The difference was primarily due to the use of new data sources
[rather than change of base year]," said Mr Muchiri, who pointed to a
2010 Census of Industrial Production and VAT returns data from Kenya
Revenue Authority among six improved new data sets.

The recalculations may still underestimate total GDP as 2009, the new
base year, saw the country affected by drought that depressed
agricultural output and household spending. The statistics bureau
rejected 2008 as a possible replacement base year because of
post-election violence that had a dramatic impact on the economy:
growth fell to 1.5 per cent, down from 7 per cent the year before, and
more than 1,100 people were killed.

Ragnar Gudmundsson, IMF representative in Kenya, said the new GDP
estimates could make Kenya eligible for extra borrowing at a time when
the country is hoping to tap international markets. "It would most
likely give them access to our non-concessional facility but the
amounts are still up for discussion," he said.

Kenya is readying a maiden $1.5bn-$2bn sovereign bond, although
officials fear they may have missed the best window because of the
impact of the US curtailing its policy of quantitative easing. Zambia
this week raised $1bn from a 10-year dollar-denominated bond, paying
an interest rate of 8.625 per cent - significantly higher than the
5.625 per cent it achieved when it issued its first bond two years
ago.

Shilling sovereign debt of East Africa's biggest economy, which plans
to sell its debut Eurobond this year, returned 6.2 percent in dollar
terms in 2014, the most after Turkey among 16 emerging markets in
Africa, Europe and the Middle East, according to Bloomberg indexes.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-09/kenyan-debt-beats-peers-as-market-awaits-eurobond-africa-credit

The yield on the local-currency 10-year security, sold in January, has
been at a record low since April 3.

The economy is forecast to grow 5.5 percent this year, versus 5
percent in 2013, driven partly by exports of tea and flowers and
spending on ports and railways amid speculation that crude production
may begin by early 2016. While terror attacks including September's
siege of the Westgate Mall in Nairobi roiled sentiment, demand for
10-year shilling bonds at a sale in January exceeded supply by four
times.

Kenya, which first considered selling a Eurobond in 1997, may offer at
least $1.5 billion, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said in September.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc are arranging the sale, which
the government is still completing documents for, Rotich said on April
2. The country plans to use the debt as an "exit strategy from
borrowing in the local market," Deputy President William Ruto said
April 7. Rotich was in the U.S. and didn't have any new details on the
sale, he said by phone yesterday.

Kenya is building Africa's biggest wind-power plant in the country's
north and a $5.2 billion standard-gauge railway from the port at
Mombasa to Nairobi. Tullow Oil Plc doubled its estimate for oil
resources to more than 600 million barrels in January.

The shilling weakened less than 0.1 percent to 86.55 per dollar by
9:37 a.m. in Nairobi, extending its loss this year to 0.3 percent.
Ghana's cedi, which has the same B1 rating as Kenya at Fitch Ratings,
is Africa's worst-performing currency in 2014, down 14 percent as the
West African nation struggles to contain its budget and
current-account deficits. Futures contracts show the shilling is set
to slide to 92.54 per dollar over the next 12 months, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg.

The currency is set to weaken amid "an expected rise in the level of
imports due to heightened demand for capital goods to support the
construction of large-scale infrastructural projects," Vinita Kotedia,
a research analyst at Nairobi-based Genghis Capital Ltd., said in an
e-mail yesterday.

Visits to the country, known for bush safaris and beaches, fell 7
percent last year after seeing an increase in gun and bomb attacks
since deploying soldiers in neighboring Somalia in 2011 to battle the
al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab militia. The Australian government
warned its citizens against visiting Nairobi and Mombasa because of
reports that terrorists are planning attacks in the cities, it said
March 29.

"Travel advisories from developed nations may slow down the inflow of
tourists, bearing in mind the current sensitive security situation,"
Kotedia said.

Conclusions

read more


And of course, there is our big Wembley stadium moment with the eurobond, which is now imminent. 20-JAN-2014
Kenyan Economy


I incline to the view that the Kenya government should slot the
Eurobond market the full $2bn. This eurobond issue will release the
pressure cooker that is the domestic bond and interest rate markets--we
should see a good rally in interest rates. Hopefully, the banks will
go for some volume and not just spread and the economy can get juiced
a little on lower interest rates.

read more


Kenya deports Somalis, arrests hundreds in crackdown after attacks
Kenyan Economy


Kenya said on Wednesday it had deported 82 Somalis and rounded up
hundreds of others without proper documents, part of a security
crackdown launched after repeated attacks claimed by militants from
neighboring Somalia.

Police had detained 472 people in the past few days, Interior Cabinet
Secretary Joseph Ole Lenku told reporters at a stadium where other
people were being screened to establish their identity.

"The process will continue until we do not have illegal aliens and
those found to have refugees documents are taken to refugees camps,"
Lenku said.

Emmanuel Nyabera, a information officer with the U.N. refugee agency
UNHCR, said its officers had found detainees with the proper
documentation were being released.

Kenya's Comcraft Group discussing possible share offerings: chairman

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0CV03D20140409?sp=true

Kenyan industrial magnate Manu Chandaria said his family-owned
conglomerate Comcraft Group is in discussions about taking parts of
the business public, reflecting its growing size and need for capital
as it expands internationally.

Comcraft Chairman Chandaria said both the steel and aluminium sections
of the family business - which in Africa mainly make corrugated iron
roofing and pots and pans - could go public within the next two to
three years.

"Ultimately groups of our size cannot remain only private," Chandaria
told the Reuters Africa Summit at his home in a lush Nairobi suburb,
perched on the edge of the dense Karura Forest.

But with Comcraft companies rapidly expanding in Asia and Africa,
especially in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa, Chandaria
said there are fears among some in the group that an initial public
offering (IPO) could hinder growth due to short-term shareholder
demands.

"Some of (our) top management still don't think that we are ready for
taking it public. I would have taken it public a long time back," said
Chandaria, who is also a leading Kenyan philanthropist.

U.S. business magazine Forbes in 2011 estimated Comcraft to be worth
$2.5 billion, the last time it valued the business. Chandaria declined
to comment on the current value of the group.

Over the next two years Comcraft plans to treble the number of
factories in Ethiopia to nine, even though in the 1970s the regime
that overthrew Emperor Haile Selassi also seized the Chandaria
businesses, a fate the family also suffered in Uganda.

In neighbouring Kenya, Chandaria said Comcraft is looking to build
several factories and grow 50 percent over three years.

Comcraft is also targeting expansion in Nigeria, where it already
employs more than 4,000 people, hoping to tap into a market boasting a
growing middle class among its 140 million residents.

Chandaria said the group is undeterred by the threat from Islamist
Boko Haram rebels and has set up businesses in their stronghold areas.

"Yes, it is difficult, it's demoralising but you do not see that as a
stop," he said. "If you live in the sea, you have to live with
sharks."

Lifetime Achievement Dr. @Manuchandaria #ForbesAfricaPOTY last
time we were together he slotted a triple #JWBL

http://www.twitpic.com/dnd6yc

read more


Its a party Johnnie Walker #Nairobi @Diageo_News @NorfolkFairmont cc @Ckirubi Charles Ireland
Kenyan Economy


I was sitting next to Dr. @Manuchandaria, he was on my left. During
the course of the Dinner Dr. Chandaria tells me ''I was the Black
Sheep of the Family.''

I said ''Really?''

He says ''Yes The Family sent me to North America and i developed a
Taste for Bourbon.''

But he says ''I gave up drink more than 40 years ago.''

Preceding this exchange He had told the Waiter just keep filling the
Glass and I will toast the proceedings.

By this time There are 3 Triples on the Table and we have now
graduated to the really good stuff.

Next Toast and he slugs a Triple.

Mrs. Chandaria is a tiny little thing and I like to think Dr.
Chandaria slung her over his shoulder not too much later that evening.

read more


@KenolKobil reports FY 2013 PBT 563.918m versus [8.964b loss FY 2012] Earnings here +2.475% in 2014
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           10.35
Total Shares Issued:          1471761200.00
Market Capitalization:        15,232,728,420
EPS:             0.38
PE:               27.2368

Major energy supplier in the Region.

Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus FY through December 2012

FY Net Sales 109.687453b versus 192.527486b -43.027%
FY Cost of Sales [104.660874b] versus [188.239327b] -44.4001%
FY Gross Profit 5.026579b versus 4.288159b +17.2199%
FY Other Income 1.402931b versus 483.364m +190.243%
FY Distribution Costs [761.412m] versus [995.560m]
FY Administrative Expenses [3.369232b] versus [5.859819b] -42.502%
FY Net Foreign Exchange Losses [105.347m] versus [4.605632b] -97.712%
FY Interest Expense [1.671759b] versus [2.351185b] -28.897%
FY Profit Before Tax 563.918m versus [8.964664b]
FY Profit After Tax 558.149m versus [6.284575b]
FY Earnings Per Share 0.38 versus [4.26]
FY Dividend 10 cents a share

Company Commentary


''represents a major turnaround of the company's performance''
''The Restructuring Process will continue in 2014 and has concentrated
on five major areas: corporate restructuring, financing costs,
operating costs, human resources realignment and risk reduction.''
''Financing Costs were reduced 28% by optimizing Inventory and
re-negotiating interest rates.''
''41% reduction in workforce from 574 employees to 338 employees''
''change of sales mix by focusing on high margin sales and exiting low
margin businesses.''
''Management is confident of significantly improved results in 2014.''

Conclusions


KenolKobil took deep and decisive Action after FY 2012.
FY Turnover slashed 43.027%, 41% reduction in workforce and a
respectable FY Profit.
These results were signalled in the First Half Release but on balance
I think the Rebound has further to go and that the recent radical
surgery means returned will be optimised for shareholders.
And that it remains in play.

read more


I&M Holdings reports FY 2013 PAT +20.764% Earnings here share price +4.1666% 2014
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           125.00
Total Shares Issued:          392362035.00
Market Capitalization:        49,045,254,375
EPS:             11.75
PE:                10.6382

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus FY through December 2012

Full Year Loans and advances to Customers 91.882664b versus 71.012960b +29.388%
FY Total Assets 141.200545b versus 119.233345b +18.423%
FY Deposits from Customers 97.145568b versus 87.774149b
FY Net Interest Income 8.887714b versus 5.995006b +48.25%
Net Fee and Commission Income 1.895754b versus 1.511564b +25.416%
FY Other Operating Income 1.542237b versus 1.477393b
FY Operating Income 12.325705b versus 8.983963b +37.196%
FY Operating Expenses [4.672154b] versus [3.576541b] +30.633%
FY Profit Before Tax 7.257794b versus 5.702304b +27.27%
FY Profit After Tax 4.974956b versus 4.119557b +20.764%
FY Earnings Per Share 11.75 versus 9.84 +19.41%
Interim Dividend 2.50 a share

Conclusions


Fairly priced versus its Peers.

read more


Liberty Kenya reports FY PAT 2013 +28.91% Earnings here share data +2.657% 2014
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           15.45
Total Shares Issued:          515270364.00
Market Capitalization:        7,960,927,124
EPS:             2.15
PE:                7.186

Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd, a leading insurer in Kenya, has been
operational since 1964.

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 12 months through Dec 2012

FY Gross earned premium Revenue 7.397981b versus 6.953842b +6.386%
FY Less outward reinsurance [3.330854b] versus [2.971456b]
FY Net Insurance premium Revenue 4.067128b versus 3.982386b
FY Commissions earned 657.492m versus 660.441m
FY Investment Income 2.629519b versus 3.180431b
FY Total Income 7.378610b versus 8.049399b
FY Net Insurance benefits and claims [3.076841b] versus [3.761475b] -18.2%
FY Total expenses and commissions [2.995520b] versus [3.137549b]
FY Profit before Tax 1.298862b versus 1.174079b +10.628%
FY Profit after Tax 1.105920b versus 857.849m +28.91%
FY Earnings Per Share 2.15 versus 1.66 +29.518%

Company Commentary


''liberty Kenya's performance in 2013 was reassuringly sound across
our main business activities''

Conclusions


Well organised, strong insurance skills as evidenced in a 18.2%
reduction in FY Net Insurance benefits and claims, expanding off  a
Low base. Has headroom.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.60
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +5.1445% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

143.68 +0.81 +0.57%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.6955% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,892.70 +10.37 +0.21%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more




 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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