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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 30th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

It was a pleasure meeting the Team from Citadel, RVR, The IFC and DEG yesterday.

read more


Mombasa Nairobi Railway
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I attended the Funeral yesterday of My Cousin Salina's [and Srikesh's]
 son Issar. Issar was due to turn 13. He had been poorly for a while,
however. The Funeral was very touching, eclectic but it made me feel
how fleeting Life in fact is, like how water can slip through your
Fingers.

I thought of the story of Kabir's Funeral.

read more


Kabir by Swami Sivananda
Africa


When Kabir died, his body was claimed by both the Hindus and the
Mohammedans. The King of Kashi, with thousands of Hindus, wanted to
cremate the body. The Hindus claimed that Kabir was a Hindu and that
therefore his body should be burnt. Bizli Khan, with thousands of
Mohammedans, wanted to bury it.

The Mohammedans said that Kabir was a Muslim and therefore his body
ought to be buried under Mohammedan rites. While they were
quarrelling, Kabir's apparition appeared and said, "I was neither a
Hindu nor a Mohammedan. I was both. I was nothing. I was all. I
discern God in both. There is no Hindu and no Mussalman. To him who is
free from delusion, Hindu and Mussalman are the same. Remove the
shroud and behold the miracle!"

The shroud was removed. A large quantity of flowers was seen under it.
Half of the flowers was taken by the king of Kashi and burnt on the
bank of holy Ganga. The ashes were then buried and a temple was built.
This temple is known by the name of Kabir Chaura--a great place of
pilgrimage for the followers of Kabir. The other half of the flowers
was taken by the Mohammedans and buried at Moghar where Kabir died. A
mosque was built over the grave. This is a place of pilgrimage for the
Mohammedans.

read more




Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who cast his ballot in Baghdad, will be a pivotal figure in post-election coalition making @BBC
Law & Politics


Polling began at 07:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and closes at 18:00.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is hoping to win a third term in office

Mr @BarackObama declared in Manila, there was an "Obama doctrine."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-foreign-policy-president-defends-his-obama-doctrine-where-military-intervention-is-a-last-resort-9303424.html

It was cautious and incremental, and saw military intervention as the
last, not the first resort. This approach to world affairs might not
be "sexy," he continued, using baseball metaphors to explain. The goal
was to avoid errors. Foreign policy progress consisted of "singles and
doubles.... every once in a while we may be able to hit a home run."

"It is increasingly obvious that Washington is taking Beijing as an
opponent," the editorial said. China Daily

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-warns-china-backs-philippines-052728352.html

"With Obama reassuring the US allies of protection in any conflict
with China, it is now clear that Washington is no longer bothering to
conceal its attempt to contain China's influence in the region."

The editorial warned against believing Obama's "sweet promises" of a
new, constructive relationship between the United States and China,
and instead outlined what it described as a "grim geopolitical
reality".

"Ganging up with its troublemaking allies, the US is presenting itself
as a security threat to China," it said.

Police are the "fists and daggers" in the fight against terrorism,
China's President Xi Jinping said on a trip to the western Xinjiang
region

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/us-china-xinjiang-idUSBREA3S03D20140429

"The Kashgar region is the front line in anti-terrorism and
maintaining social stability," the official Xinhua news agency citied
Xi as telling paramilitary police in the Silk Road city of Kashgar in
western Xinjiang that has been at the center of much of the unrest.

"The situation is grim and complicated. The local level police
stations are fists and daggers," Xi said.

The report, carried widely in state media, showed photographs of Xi
touring police facilities.

"You must have the most effective means to deal with violent
terrorists," Xi said at a police station where he was pictured
inspecting a wall of various kinds of truncheons.

"Sweat more in peacetime to bleed less in wartime," he said.

Conclusions


This Crimea Referendum business is a geopolitical conundrum for China.
The problem being, if you allow that periphery states can vote then
you will definitely see a whole lot of China peel off real quick, from
Tibet to Taiwan to Xinjiang.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX3103.pdf

read more



Russia was seeking to "change the security landscape of eastern Europe", @JohnKerry said on Tuesday, calling on Moscow "to leave Ukraine in peace."
Law & Politics


Speaking at an event about US-Europe ties at the Atlantic Council
think-tank, the US secretary of state warned that "Nato territory is
inviolable", adding: "We will defend every single piece of it."

read more



U.N. chief urges South Sudan's Kiir help end violence, anti-U.N. campaign
Law & Politics


U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged South Sudan President Salva
Kiir on Tuesday to publicly call for an end to a "negative campaign"
against U.N. peacekeepers and to bring to justice those responsible
for attacks there on civilians and the United Nations.

In a phone call with Kiir, the U.N. chief called for "an immediate
halt to the vicious fighting and the appalling killing of South
Sudanese civilians," according to a statement from Ban's press office.

More than 1 million people have fled their homes since fighting
erupted in December between troops backing Kiir and soldiers loyal to
his sacked deputy, Riek Machar. The fighting has exacerbated ethnic
tensions between Kiir's Dinka people and Machar's Nuer.

Ban "stressed the need to ensure that the perpetrators of the
completely unacceptable attack on the United Nations Mission in South
Sudan (UNMISS) compound in Bor and the ethnically motivated killings
in Bentiu are swiftly brought to justice."

Ban "urged the president to intervene personally to stop the negative
campaign against UNMISS staff and issue a public statement to this
end."

Negotiations between the Kiir government and rebels loyal to Machar
have failed to advance since the January 23 signing of a ceasefire
which never took hold.

read more



French officials welcomed Angola's president on Tuesday for the first time in 20 years, hailing his economic reforms in the clearest sign yet that Paris is turning its diplomatic focus to winning overseas contracts.
Law & Politics


Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius later rolled out the red carpet ahead
of a bilateral forum on investment opportunities in a country with
annual economic growth of about 9 percent.

"France has a deep historical relationship with Africa. We want that
to grow. We want to see the number of French companies increasing in
Angola ... I call on businessmen to invest in Angola," Dos Santos told
business leaders at the foreign ministry on a rare overseas visit for
the 71-year-old leader.

Despite its difficult ties, France has ploughed some $10 billion into
Angola, making it the third biggest investor, although it is the sixth
biggest trade partner behind the likes of the United States, China and
former colonial ruler Portugal.

France has about 70 companies operating in the oil producing nation,
ranging from Air France to BNPParis and Bollore.

Its main investor is Total, now the biggest operator in the country's
oil sector, which is the largest in Africa after Nigeria's.

Last week, the company decided to go ahead with a $16 billion
investment on the new Kaombo project, which is set to produce 230,000
barrels per day once it starts up in 2017.

"Economically, we are relaunching our partnership. The opportunities
are huge because your country is seeing a remarkable dynamism and
wants to diversify its approach," said Fabius, who identified
potential sectors of interest from water to transport and agriculture.

Alex Vines, research director at the Chatham House think tank in
London, said Angola had also shifted focus somewhat.

"Over the last 18 months, Angola's presidency has become more
ambitious internationally possibly signaling that President dos Santos
is looking for legacies after 34 years in power," he said.

France's attention to Angola was also recognition, he said, "that when
it comes to central Africa, Angola is increasingly a regional anchor
state for peace and security," he said, referring to the conflict in
Central African Republic where France intervened in December.

A private company said it had found what it believes is wreckage of a
plane in the Bay of Bengal that should be investigated as potential
debris from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight #MH370, but the
possibility was dismissed by search coordinators.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/us-malaysiaairlines-bengal-idUSBREA3S10E20140430

Conclusions


"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to
worry about answers." -- Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

"A screaming comes across the sky." -- Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3806
Dollar Index 79.79
Japan Yen 102.42
Swiss Franc 0.8836
Pound 1.6826 touched $1.6853 yesterday, the highest level since November 2009
Aussie 0.9284
India Rupee 60.34
South Korea Won 1032.25 South Korea's Won Touches Six-Year High
Against The Dollar
Brazil Real 2.2360
Egypt Pound 7.0012
South Africa Rand 10.5659

Sterling has rallied 5.8 percent in the past six months, the best
performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes, amid signs stronger economic growth will
spur the Bank of England to raise borrowing costs sooner than it
forecast. The euro appreciated 0.9 percent and the dollar rose 0.3
percent.

The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting today where economists
expect policy makers to cut monthly asset purchases to $45 billion.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in March that the central bank may start
to raise interest rates "around six months" after ending its
asset-buying program.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.79 [not energised]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3806 [Inflation number is key]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.6826 [My Objective is 1.7350]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Britain's GDP rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, up from 0.7
percent in the final three months of 2013, the Office for National
Statistics in London said.

read more


12-AUG-2013 The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It Is Real
International Trade


So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net
long sterling.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 3 Month  Chart INO 1294.18

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,295.13 an ounce at 9:30
a.m. in Singapore from $1,295.92 yesterday, when prices retreated for
a second day. The metal increased 0.9 percent this month after sliding
3.2 percent in March, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 100.45

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.M14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for June delivery fell as much as 93 cents to $100.35 a barrel in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at
$100.46 at 12:40 p.m. Singapore time. The contract advanced 44 cents
to $101.28 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was about 11
percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 1.1 percent in
April, the most in five months.

read more


South Korean Won 1 Year Chart INO 1032.75 6 Year Highs
Emerging Markets


Gross domestic product increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter from
a year earlier, the fastest in three years, while March's
current-account surplus widened to $7.35 billion, official data show.
Exports rose 5.5 percent in April from a year earlier, economists
surveyed by Bloomberg project before data due tomorrow.

The won gained 3.2 percent in April to 1,031.95 per dollar as of 10:16
a.m. in Seoul, the biggest monthly increase since September 2013, data
compiled by Bloomberg show. It fell 0.2 percent today, after earlier
touching 1,029.96, the strongest level since August 2008.

India Rupee 1 Year Chart INO 60.31 [heads to 57.50 on a decisive
@NarendraModi win]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDINR&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Narendra Modi @narendramodi  1h Voted!
Here is my selfie 
pic.twitter.com/7OnhFiJ0AC

Frontier Markets

read more




Bharti Airtel's African business has been a drag on the company, which has to yet to turn a profit there four years after spending $9 billion to acquire money-losing mobile phone assets.
Africa


Losses in its international business, which includes the African
operation, more than doubled to 12.18 billion rupees before
exceptional items.

Bharti Airtel operates in 20 countries across Asia and Africa and is
the world's fourth-biggest cellular carrier by customers.

Bharti said performance in Africa was hurt by a "seasonal downturn" in
parts of the continent and regulatory intervention in Nigeria, its
biggest African market.

"Africa didn't do well," said Daljeet Kohli, head of research at India
Nivesh Securities in Mumbai. '

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/bharti-profit-misses-estimates-as-africa-growth-slows.html

'That's a disappointment because many people were looking for Africa
to stabilize, that this time they would could come to a break-even
point. But that has not happened, so Africa will continue to be a drag
on the good work that Airtel does in India.''

Revenue in Africa increased 16.4 percent in the three months ended
March 31, slowing from a 17.2 percent pace in the preceding quarter.

"The quarter was impacted by the seasonal downturn in parts of Africa
and regulatory interventions in Nigeria," Christian de Faria, chief
executive officer of Bharti's Africa business, said in a statement.
"Our teams remain focused on accelerating growth through improving the
quality of network, growing the data business."

5.3.7.1 Africa

http://www.airtel.in/wps/wcm/connect/e10e645b-d938-4299-9761-4239f8b543e5/Bharti-Airtel-Limited_Quarterly-Report_March-31-2014.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

As on March 31, 2014, the Company had an aggregate customer base of
69.4 Mn. Customer acquisition in Nigeria was impacted due to
restrictions imposed by the Regulator on selling SIM cards during the
month of March 2014. Net additions during the quarter were 1.1 Mn
customers mainly arising out of the acquisition of Warid Congo S.A.
Total minutes on network during the quarter were 28.2 Bn as compared
to 23.4 Bn in the corresponding quarter last year, a growth of 20.5%.

Data customers during the quarter increased by 53.5% to 22.3 Mn as
compared to 14.5 Mn in the corresponding quarter last year. Data
customers now represent 32.1% of the total customer base, as compared
to 22.8% in the corresponding quarter last year. Data traffic has
registered a strong growth of 103.6% Y-o-Y to 6.1 Bn MBs during the
quarter as compared to 3.0 Bn MBs in the corresponding quarter last
year. Data usage per customer during the quarter was 96.4 MBs as
compared to 73.4 MBs in the corresponding quarter last year, an
increase of 31.4%.

The Company"s mobile money platform, Airtel Money is gaining customer
acceptance across Africa. The total customer base using the Airtel
Money platform increased by 28.2% to 3.5 Mn as compared to 2.7 Mn on a
sequential quarter basis. The total number of transactions during the
quarter was higher by 25.5% to 92.0 Mn in the current quarter as
compared to 73.3 Mn in the previous quarter. Total value of
transactions conducted using this platform increased by 28.6% to
$2,202 Mn in Q4 as compared to $1,713 Mn in Q3.

Revenue for the quarter was $1,145 Mn as compared to $1,120 Mn in the
corresponding quarter last year, representing a growth of 2.2%. Mobile
data revenue grew by 80.6% to $88.2 Mn during the quarter as compared
to $48.9 Mn in the corresponding quarter last year. Mobile data
revenue now represents 7.7% of the total mobile revenue during the
quarter as compared to 4.4% in the corresponding quarter last year.
Net revenue after netting off inter-connect costs and cost of goods
sold increased by 6.8% to $951 Mn as compared to $890 Mn in the
corresponding quarter last year.

Operating expenses excluding access costs, costs of goods sold and
licence fees increased by 8.5% to $602 Mn as compared to the
corresponding quarter last year, primarily on account of increased
network operating costs and higher sales and marketing costs. EBITDA
during the quarter at $290 Mn was higher compared to $285 Mn in the
corresponding quarter last year. However, EBIT for the quarter at $64
Mn was slightly lower compared to $62 Mn in the corresponding quarter
last year due to the impact of depreciation and amortization. After
accounting for finance costs and taxes, the net loss for the quarter
was $124 Mn as
compared to a loss of $91 Mn in the corresponding quarter last year.

Electrification in Africa, a question of credit: Kemp

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/kemp-africa-electricity-idUSL6N0NL25P20140429

In March, an official from the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) testified to the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee: "Over a year, a refrigerator uses six times more
electricity than a Tanzanian citizen, and it would take an Ethiopian
citizen two years to consume the amount of electricity that an
American does in three days."

He added: "Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) generates 28
gigawatts of power for more than 900 million people - about the same
as Argentina generates for 42 million people. And on any given day, a
quarter of that energy is unavailable due to inefficient outdated
infrastructure."

No electricity means no development. "Without electricity they (the
rural population) have no lights, and their children must do their
homework under dangerous paraffin lamps. Using a computer for
schoolwork or anything else is impossible," Symbion, an independent
power producer, told the committee.

There is no refrigeration to preserve food and cooking is done on
wood- or dung-burning stoves that cause deforestation, greenhouse
emissions, and toxic fumes that are responsible for an estimated 2
million premature deaths a year.

"Not being paid on time or at all is at the top of the fear list for
the private sector."

Foreign investors remain wary. Africa attracted an average of just
$8.4 billion in foreign direct investment in utilities in 2011 and
2012, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development's "World Investment Report 2013". That figure, which
includes gas and water as well as electricity and is for the whole
continent, is woefully inadequate.

"Decentralised off-grid and mini-grid solutions often offer the
swiftest, cleanest and most innovative solutions to energy poverty by
sidestepping the need to connect to the national electricity network,"
USAID said.

The aim is to tie payment closely and visibly to consumption. Many
rural communities already have some form of mobile phone service.
Mobiles avoid the problems of laying expensive fixed lines and trying
to recover the costs from subscribers; users are charged on
pay-as-you-go plans.

In Kenya, USAID is backing several innovative projects including a
pay-as-you-go lighting service, and a metered solar power and battery
system. In Tanzania, OPIC is funding software that will allow
customers to pre-pay for electricity via their mobile phone.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.29% [Fresh record closing High]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Booysen feels that if the ANC polls about 55 per cent, there "will be
panic" within the organisation. FT

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/04/29/extremist-workers-party-key-in-south-africa-election/

About 20% of headline earnings derives from the rest of Africa, up
from 12% in 2010.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/financial/2014/04/29/standards-africa-unit-must-pay-its-way

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.56575 [heads to 10.00 before 11.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9994

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +21.58% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,150.09 -15.87 -0.19%

"This ruling is the last nail in the coffin of the ruling powers that
led the coup," said Brotherhood general guide Mohamed Badie, who was
condemned to death along with 682 supporters on Monday. "The regime is
on the brink of collapse."

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0DF12W20140429

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.25% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.46% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

The Chinese People's Liberation Army yesterday donated US$4.2 million
(30 million RMB) to the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201404290637.html

Meanwhile, General Qi has praised President Mugabe for his stance
against Western powers bent on destabilising Africa.

He was speaking at a dinner hosted for him by Zimbabwe Defence Forces
Commander General Constantine Chiwenga in Harare on Sunday.

"General officers and men of China admire ZDF, especially your
Commander-in-Chief President Mugabe who has managed to stand against
Western powers' machinations to destabilise the African continent.

"Your President is one of the few leaders of the likes of Fidel
Castrol, Vladimir Putin and others who have stood against Western
powers.

"Few leaders have the courage to stand against United States of
America and its allies.

read more


Gross domestic product in East Africa's largest economy rose 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent a year earlier, Planning Secretary Anne Waiguru told a conference today in Nairobi.
Kenyan Economy


The figure is lower than the government's initial estimate a year ago
of as much as 6 percent expansion for 2013. The economy, which relies
on tourism as the second-largest source of foreign exchange, has
suffered a wave of gun and grenade attacks including a shooting spree
by al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab militants on the Westgate mall in
September that left at least 67 civilians and security personnel dead.

Tourist arrivals fell 18 percent to 1.4 million last year, moving the
country away from its target of 3 million visitors by 2017, while
revenue from the industry dipped to 94 billion shillings ($1 billion)
from 96.2 billion shillings. The decline was probably influenced by
travel warnings issued by foreign governments due to "security
concerns," Waiguru said.

The hotel and restaurant industry was the only facet of the economy
that contracted last year, declining 4.5 percent compared with a 2.6
percent increase in 2012, according to the annual Kenyan Economic
Survey released today. A fire that disrupted service at the main
Nairobi airport in August and elections in March 2013 also curbed
tourism, the report said.

read more


Kenya Economic Survey Report 2014.pdf SCRIB'D
Kenyan Economy


Growth in the agricultural sector decelerated in 2013 to 2.9 per cent
from a revised growth of 4.2 per cent in 2012
The Manufacturing sector grew by 4.8 per cent in 2013 compared to a
revised growth of 3.2 per cent in 2012
Cargo throughput handled at the Port of Mombasa increased by 1.8 per
cent to 22.3 million tonnes
Railway freight tonnage dropped from 1.4 million tonnes in 2012 to 1.2
million tonnes in 2013.
Total volume of white petroleum products through Pipeline increased
from 4.9 Million cubic metres in 2012 to 5.2 Million cubic metres in
2013
The number of mobile connections rose from 30.4 million in 2012 to
31.2 million in 2013
Internet subscriptions rose significantly from 8.5 million in 2012 to
13.3 million in 2013
The number of international visitor arrivals decreased from 1.7
million in 2012 to 1.5 million in 2013
The total import bill of petroleum products declined by 3.5 per cent
to KSh 315.4 billion in 2013
Total installed electricity generating capacity increased from 1,606.1
Mega Watts (MW) in 2012 to 1,717.8 MW in 2013.
During the year under review, building and construction sector
expanded by 5.5 per cent up from a growth of 4.8 per cent registered
in 2012
Total exports declined by 3.0 per cent from KSh 517.8 billion in 2012
to KSh 502.0 billion in 2013
Total imports increased by 2.8 per cent from KSh 1,374.6 billion in
2012 to KSh 1,413.0 billion in 2013.
 This led to the export-import ratio deteriorating from 37.7 per cent
in 2012 to 35.5 per cent in 2013
Operationalization of the development budget in the counties is
expected to spur further economic growth
Increase installed electricity capacity to 5000MW
To improve on the country's terms of trade, the government will expand
measures aimed at facilitating export growth such as establishment of
Special Economic Zones

read more


UPDATE 2-Kenya delays 2014 growth forecast after 2013 disappoints
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, April 29 (Reuters) - Kenya has delayed the release of its
official economic growth forecast for this year by more than a month
after saying on Tuesday that the economy grew less in 2013 than
expected.

The government had been expected to give its forecast for 2014 growth
on Tuesday but Cabinet Secretary for Planning Anne Waiguru told
reporters the release had been delayed.

"We will have it (2014 forecast) in the budget strategy paper, the one
that is going to precede the national budget, she said. "We need to
make a few consultations with the national Treasury before we give the
forecast."

The finance minister is scheduled to present the national budget to
parliament in mid-June. The Treasury said in January it expected the
economy to grow by 5.8 percent this year.

Analysts said deferring the growth estimate would buy the authorities
time to assess the effects of a drop last year in tea prices and
sluggish tourist arrivals.

Gun and grenade attacks blamed on al Shabaab rebels in neighbouring
Somalia, including September's attack on the Westgate shopping mall in
Nairobi, in which at least 67 people were killed, may also have an
economic impact.

"There are several factors that were negative last year and they are
up in the air," said Robert Shaw, a Nairobi-based economic analyst.

"It was quite wise not to make a projection at this stage because we
certainly need a little more time to see how those factors continue."

The sector grew 2.9 percent in 2013 compared with revised growth of
4.2 percent in the year before, with output of coffee and maize
dropping 20 percent and 2 percent respectively.

Razia Khan, head of research for Africa at Standard Chartered, said
slower spending by the government after an election in March could
have also weighed on growth last year.

"This will be a key factor in Kenya registering a positive surprise
when its budget numbers are published," Khan said.

"Slower-than-expected spending will see the fiscal deficit narrow,
relative to initial projections of -7.9 percent of GDP."

Total exports declined 3 percent from the previous year, causing the
trade balance to worsen, Waiguru said.

Kenya's balance of payments surplus declined to 74 billion shillings
($852.04 million) from 123 billion shillings in 2012.

"If there is one area that this government can be complimented on, it
is the relatively stable - one could almost say solid - macroeconomic
framework," Shaw said.

"It is quite a nice change from before where all sorts of factors
kicked in and it was all very turbulent."

"Commercial threshold resources have been exceeded in the South
Lokichar Basin. We know we have exceeded the commercial threshold and
that it is going to get higher and higher," he said.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/29/kenya-oil-idINL6N0NL3HX20140429

read more


ScanGroup reports FY EPS 2013 +22.17% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           46.75
Total Shares Issued:          378865102.00
Market Capitalization:        17,711,943,519
EPS:             2.70
PE:                17.314

The largest marketing services company in East Africa.

Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 31st December 2012

FY Billings 14.168001b versus 12.472198b +13.596%
FY Direct Costs [10.317607b] versus [8.549435b] +20.681%
FY Revenue 3.850394b versus 3.922763b
Gain on revaluation of equity interest 605.474m in 2013
FY Operating and Administration Expenses [3.547430b] versus [3.058750b]
FY Profit Before Tax 1.038416b versus 1.069566b
FY Profit After Tax 867.358m versus 752.009m
FY EPS 2.70 versus 2.21 +22.17%
FY Dividend 40 cents a share

Company Commentary

''Level of client spend in the first half was subdued due to the
General elections''
''The continued investment in growth disciplines, in particular
Digital and PR and further developing our presence and potential in
Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania led to a 16% increase in
operating costs.
''Overall EPS is +26% but the underlying EPS [excluding the
revaluation gain] shows a drop of 70% to 0.63.''

Conclusions


Its one of the very few SSA Advertising Pure Plays and has crossed the
Nadir in earnings.

read more



Express Kenya releases FY Earnings and a Profits Warning here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.75
Total Shares Issued:          34400000.00
Market Capitalization:        163,400,000
EPS:             0.01
PE:                475

Express Kenya Limited is a Kenya-based company engaged in the
provision of clearing and forwarding services for air and sea, as well
as warehousing and logistics services.

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013

FY Revenue 387.494m versus 229.908m
FY Direct Costs [323.440m] versus [312.535m]
Gross Profit 64.054m versus [82.627m]
Other Operating Income 15.469m versus 197.731m
FY Administrative Expenses [48.793m] versus [68.922m]
FY Operating Profit 6.318m versus 16.517m
FY Profit for the Year 229,000 versus 13.028m
FY Earnings Per Share 0.01 versus 0.37
No Dividend

Conclusions


I do not have a deep insight into the Company.
a PE Ratio of 475 is not cheap but the market cap of less than $2m is.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.851
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.633% 2014 Fresh Record Highs

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

151.18 +0.73 +0.49%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.5997% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,956.52 -1.64 -0.03%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Official closing Data has not been received as I file this.
The Securities Exchange had a very vigorous session with Volumes of
1.263b of which Safaricom traded 907.446m which represented its 2nd
highest volume session of 2014.
Liberty +46.179%, CIC Insurance +68.9%, CFC Stanbic Bank +48.275% all
set Fresh life Time closing Highs.
ScanGroup rallied 4.81% after releasing its FY Earnings.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.38% to close at 13.10 and traded its 2nd highest
volume session of 2014 with 69.200m shares worth 907.446m changing
hands. Safaricom is +20.737% and within 0.75% of a record Closing High
of 13.20 reached on 4 occasions this month. Safaricom will set a Fresh
Record as early next week.

ScanGroup released its FY 2013 Earnings pre market opening. ScanGroup
[where the Majority Shareholder is now Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP]
reported a 13.596% Expansion in FY Billings, Direct Costs accelerated
+20.681% as the Group chased expansion in Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa
and Tanzania. ScanGroup reported a +22.17% acceleration in FY Earnings
Per Share. Investors ran the price 4.81% higher.

Express Kenya closed unchanged at 4.75. Express Kenya reported Full
Year 2013 Earnings before the opening Bell and issued a Full Year
Profits Warning with that Earnings Release. Express Kenya a 1cent a
share Earnings Per Share versus 37 cents a share in 2012.

Kenya Airways traded its highest volume session of 2014 and eased
1.19% to close at 12.50 with 1.210m shares traded. Full Year results
[which the Commercial Director recently guided higher] are set to be
released early June.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank eased 1.51% to close at 49.00 and traded 487,800
shares ahead of its Q1 2014 Earnings Release slated for release after
the market closed today. KCB is +3.703% in 2014 and I am certain H1
2014 Earnings will outpace Consensus Estimates sending KCB to Fresh
All Time Highs.
CFC Stanbic Bank rallied 3.2% to close at 129.00 and was trading
shares as high as 134.00 +7.2%. CFC StanBic has rallied 48.275% in
2014.
Equity Bank eased 1.29% to close at 38.25 and traded 2.092m shares
worth 80.281m. Equity Bank had rallied +22.047% in April through this
morning and was overdue some Profit-Taking.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 17.00 and traded 3rd at the Exchange
with 2.446m shares traded. Barclays Bank has eased 3.4% in 2014.

Liberty Kenya rallied 8.64% to close at 22.00 which is a Post Listing
High. Liberty Kenya traded 476,600 shares. Liberty Kenya is +46.179%
this year.
CIC Insurance firmed 2.55% to close at 10.05 which is an All Time High
and was trading at 10.50 +7.14% at the Closing Bell. CIC Insurance is
+68.900% this year.
Pan Africa Insurance ticked 0.75% firmer to close at 135.00. Pan
Africa is +53.4% this year.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased 0.34% to close at 293.00 and was trading at 297.00 +1.02%
at the Finish Line. EABL has rallied +11.832% in April and in a very
muscular manner. EABL is in fact +33.78% since closing at a 52 week
low in the second half of February this Year and that low marked the
moment when weak Longs got flushed out of the system and this is
confirmed by the violent Price rally, seen subsequently. EABL traded
123,400 shares.

ARM eased 0.58% to close at 85.50 and traded 395,700 shares. ARM will
see serious margin expansion once their Clinker Facility comes on
stream this year.

Unga closed 2.97% to close at 26.00 and has rallied +44.44% in 2014.

BAT was high ticked 2.12% to close at 579.00 and traded 100 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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