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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 06th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

Good Morning from Doha en route to Warsaw.

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You can see from this Map that I am quite close to the Front line in Ukraine
Africa


I look forward to hosting the "Banking CEO of the Year" for 2014
National Bank Chief Executive Officer Munir Ahmed at #Mindspeak May
17th

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#Mindspeak 2014 has featured Christine Lagarde, Dr. Naikuni, Charles Ireland and EAC SG Dr. Richard Sezibera RICH TV
Africa


The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

An Interview with Aly Khan Satchu on Both China and U.S. Top Leaders
Visit To Africa @Youtube @cctvnewsafrica
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q77-d_bOqkU

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Kenya Foreign Policy The ICC Qatar EU
Africa


The recent state visit by President Uhuru Kenyatta to Qatar captured
my attention. Qatar has found itself on the wrong side of a red line
amongst its Gulf Cooperation Council allies. Qatar pursued aggressive
interventions during the Arab Spring and was a full throated supporter
of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Today leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have been sentenced
to death en masse and a number of Aljazeera journalists are in prison
in Cairo including my friend Peter Greste.

Saudi Arabia and the GCC even saw fit to remove their ambassadors from
Doha. The sunnis are the majority and the MB has created a schism in
the majority complex. It has become as simple as 'you are either with
us, or against us.' When you consider that backdrop, the state visit
to Qatar, at this moment, was an important 'win' for the Emir.

I appreciate that the raison d'être behind such a visit is prob- ably
to source the deep pools of capital that reside in the GCC for our
leapfrog moment.

I have no doubt that Mozam- bique is the next Qatar (in terms of gas
resources) and the the oil and gas on the eastern seaboard of Africa
from Mozambique all the way through Kenya and Somalia is seriously
material in what remains a hydrocarbon world.

As this region emerges as a gas player, it makes compelling sense to
seek a collaborative approach and not an adversarial one with a player
as important as Qatar is in the global gas markets. In fact, the
overarching theme of our foreign policy should be collaboration and
multi-lateralism.

Interestingly, the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will visit Kenya and
(Nigeria where a second bombing was experienced in Abuja con- firming
Abubakar Shekau's recent comment to President Goodluck ''We are in
your city'') and other destinations on the continent. The president's
wish list surely includes permission to set up a clearing house for
the Chinese currency
renminbi and to conclude discus- sions on the Standard Gauge Railway.
China enjoys a 'special status' with the Jubilee government and this
was a direct consequence of its policy of non-interference in internal
affairs of a sovereign country.

Jubilee partisans saw the "choices have consequences'' comment as
direct interference. In fact, in a quite masterful political move,
Jubilee amplified that com- ment and reaped a handsome vote dividend,
in my view.

Naturally, the thrust of our for- eign policy was singular and aimed
at the ICC. Measuring foreign policy on that issue, its been sin-
gularly effective. It was relentlessly adversarial and I for one began
to get a little nervous when I read the Addis Ababa speech.

There is a tipping point when throwing sand in people's eyes can
become embedded. Look at Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe
certainly had a point but the cost of making it year in year out has
been brutal for the aver- age citizen.

I look forward to visiting Poland this week to attend an EU-Africa
focused conference. The EU takes more than 30 per cent of our exports
and is heavily invested in Kenya Inc. The European Union to Kenya's
Ambassador Lodewijik Briet looked to reset relations in the Standard
on Sunday.

"Kenya occupies a very crucial space in the region and the fact that
the president has elected to resolve emerging conflicts in Somalia,
including calling for a special conference on South Sudan is laudable.
It is a pointer to the fact that Kenya has taken a strategic position
regionally and it is for this reason that EU values this country as a
credible partner," said Briet.

The president and his Cabinet Secretary are like conductors. The most
effective conductors make the whole orchestra play.

The economy expanded at 4.7 per cent in 2013. Thats not fast enough.
To grow faster, we need to have everyone all aboard. All aboard!

Macro Thoughts

The Dollar is going nowhere.

Home Thoughts

reading Brighton Rock by Graham Greene

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By any reasonable measure, Russia is getting the best of the West in the showdown over Ukraine. FP
Law & Politics


Could it be that Putin has grasped the meaning of the strategic
standoff with the West better than we have? Has he figured out an
approach -- do we dare call it a strategy? -- that minimizes our
strengths and his weaknesses to achieve his objectives?

I think he has. Whether it is written up in some grand strategy
document, I seriously doubt. But whether playing the game by instinct
or following some plan (in the end it really doesn't matter which),
Putin is taking a page from the doctrine of asymmetrical warfare. He's
minimizing his weaknesses while turning the strengths of his opponents
against themselves. The aim is not merely to control Ukraine as much
as possible but to force the West to accept new terms for the European
order and for the international system at large.

In an April 30, 2014, article in Foreign Policy, "It's Not a Russian
Invasion of Ukraine We Should Be Worried About," Emile Simpson
describes what's at stake: "Framing [the nature of the conflict]
provides a lens that gives meaning to a story, so getting your
opponent to accept your chosen frame gives you power over the meaning
of events. Right now, Russia is winning that battle."

China Buys Friends and Influences Nations

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-05/china-buys-friends-and-influences-nations

With an anticipated $50 billion kitty, Beijing's new fund could begin
to put the ADB out of business as China effectively bribes leaders
from Dili to Ulaanbaatar. Indonesia needs a swanky new port? Here's $3
billion. Manila's airport needs a facelift? No problem. Thailand's
power grid is overloaded? Send us the bill.

It doesn't take a wild imagination to see this largess growing and
eventually eclipsing the World Bank, too. Beijing may even look beyond
roads and bridges to address balance-of-payments needs. If you're
Vietnam, why go to the IMF and submit to the policy changes and
increased transparency its officials demand in exchange for aid? All
China asks for is friendship and support against rivals -- whether
nationalists in Japan or "splittists" in Taiwan and Tibet. If Myanmar
or Mongolia suddenly suffered a run on their currencies, Beijing
wouldn't send a financial SWAT team with spreadsheets and conditions
-- just a check.

By contrast, the only strings attached to China's money involve its
geopolitical agenda: cheap fossil fuels, isolating Taiwan, winning
control of disputed territory, supporting Beijing's priorities at the
United Nations and elsewhere. With $4 trillion of currency reserves,
China can buy lots of friends. Better to give Beijing a say in current
institutions than to risk having China's largess undermine them
completely.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3880
Dollar Index 79.46
Japan Yen 102.04
Swiss Franc 0.8776
Pound 1.6888
Aussie 0.9285 Australia's currency traded little changed at 92.78
cents as of 6:34 a.m. in London after rising as much as 0.5 percent to
93.17 U.S. cents, matching the highest since April 23.
India Rupee 60.215 The rupee gained 0.1 percent to 60.18 per dollar as
of 10:17 a.m. in Mumbai, according to prices from local banks compiled
by Bloomberg. It touched 60.0550 earlier, approaching yesterday's high
of 59.9975 that was the strongest since April 9. - I am looking for
57.50
South Korea Won 1030.20
Brazil Real 2.2450
Egypt Pound 7.0151
South Africa Rand 10.5263

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.46 [insipid]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

"For the USD to lift off, the market has to feel like the Fed hiking
cycle is coming into view within 12 months or maybe even sooner; it
has to feel like it can taste it."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-05/aussie-holds-declines-against-yen-before-rba-amid-budget-outlook.html

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3880 [resilient]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The 18-nation euro zone's inflation rate will be 0.8 percent this year
and 1.2 percent in 2015, both lower than forecast in February and well
below the European Central Bank's target of just below 2 percent, the
Brussels-based commission said today. Gross domestic product is
projected to rise 1.7 percent in 2015, compared with the commission's
previous forecast of 1.8 percent.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.04

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1308.925 [looking to reset a short]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold futures for June delivery gained 0.5 percent to settle at
$1,309.30 an ounce at 1:42 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the
price reached $1,315.80, the highest for a most-active contract since
April 15.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 99.35

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.M14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Obama: U.S. secures 'long term' lease for Djibouti base
Africa


The United States secured a ten-year lease Monday for a key military
base in Djibouti that it relies on to launch counter-terrorism
missions, including drone strikes, in Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

"Camp Lemonnier is extraordinarily important to our work throughout
the Horn of Africa but also throughout the region. We very much
appreciate the hospitality that Djiboutians provide," Obama said.

"I have absolutely no doubt that this could be an inflection point for
the new Africa, a time and a place where Africans bend the arc of
history toward reform, and not retribution; toward peace and
prosperity, not revenge and resentment." @JohnKerry

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/rising-african-cache-poses-choice-for-us-ties/2014/05/05/38bb7b80-d48d-11e3-8f7d-7786660fff7c_story.html

Exclusive: U.S. to sanction both sides of South Sudan conflict in days - sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/06/us-southsudan-unrest-sanctions-idUSBREA440UX20140506

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry threatened sanctions and other
"consequences" for South Sudan's rebel leader Riek Machar on Monday if
he refuses to commit to peace talks

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-southsudan-unrest-usa-idUSBREA440CI20140505

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (left) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn signed a raft of trade agreements in a bid to shore up China-Africa ties.
Africa


Chinese Premier Li Keqiang yesterday unveiled extra aid for Africa
totalling at least US$12 billion (S$15 billion) and offered to share
advanced technology with the continent to help with its development of
high-speed rail, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Mr Li, who is on a four-country tour of Africa, pledged the additional
funding in a speech at the Organisation of African Union headquarters
in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

China will increase credit lines to Africa by US$10 billion and will
boost the China-Africa Development Fund by US$2 billion, bringing it
to a total of US$5 billion, Xinhua said. It provided no details of the
timeframe.

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Congo-Kinshasa: Information Minister - Kabila Not Urged to Avoid Third Term
Africa


But Information Minister Lambert Mende said there is no way Kerry
could have made such a remark because Kabila has not indicated whether
he will stand in the 2016 elections.

"First of all, I will say that Secretary of State Kerry told us a lot
of things. We are very happy with what he told us, and we agree with
the fact that a government must respect the state constitution. It is
our constitution; it is the will of our people. So, we must respect it
and we have no problem with that advice," he said.

Mende reiterated that Kerry did not urge Kabila not to seek re-election.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.17% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma has spoken openly
about why his Nkandla home requires strong security, revealing that
one of his wives was raped there.

http://news.iafrica.com/sa/921587.html

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5228 [I expect 10.00 before 11.00]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

"There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my
tenure," Sisi said on Egypt's privately-owned CBC and ONTV television
channels.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/06/abdel-fatah-al-sisi-muslim-brotherhood-egypt

According to a recent survey by the Egyptian polling centre Baseera,
72% of those who intend to vote in the elections say they will back
Sisi, with 2% supporting Sabahi.

Gulf oil producers have given Egypt a free fuel lifeling totalling $6
billion in value to help fend off unrest on its streets in the summer
when consumption soars, the head of its national oil company said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/egypt-oil-idUSL6N0NR0M420140505

Tarek El-Molla, head of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
(EGPC), told financial newspaper Al-Mal that the aid consisted of
"huge quantities" of benzene, diesel, heavy fuel oil mazut, butane and
crude oil, since last July.

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.0139

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +23.90% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.97% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

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This comment by the leader of Nigeria's Boko Haram Islamists Abubakar Shekau caught my attention; "We are in your city," he said, addressing Nigeria's President Goodluck
Africa


That comment could have been made by the Al-Shebaab.

Both Boko Haram and Al-Shebaab represent a risk that David Lipton did
not touch on, that being asymmetric risks. The recent bombings in
Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm the potency of
asymmetric risks. African markets have taken these risks in their
stride. They might stumble if these asymmetric risks ratchet higher.

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"They are slaves and I will sell them because I have the market to sell them," he said, speaking in the Hausa language of northern Nigeria.
Africa


Security forces bar Lamido Sanusi from leaving Nigeria @FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/62cfd03a-d44f-11e3-a122-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz30lFTdQoL

State security agents in Nigeria have barred Lamido Sanusi, the
suspended governor of the central bank from leaving the country for a
second time and seized his ordinary passport in apparent defiance of a
high court restraining order. Mr Sanusi, who was planning to travel to
Saudi Arabia at the weekend to perform umra, the lesser pilgrimage,
was turned back at the airport in the northern city of Kano on
Saturday. The central bank governor, who won international acclaim for
his role in sanitising the Nigerian banking sector following a 2009
crash, was suspended from his position in February by President
Goodluck Jonathan. He had his official passport taken from him on the
same day by state security services.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.48% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.9403% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

151.60 -0.25 -0.16%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.07% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,930.63 -29.28 -0.59%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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