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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
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Prompt Board Next day settlement
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Good Morning from Doha en route to Warsaw.
Kenya Foreign Policy The ICC Qatar EU
The recent state visit by President Uhuru Kenyatta to Qatar captured
my attention. Qatar has found itself on the wrong side of a red line
amongst its Gulf Cooperation Council allies. Qatar pursued aggressive
interventions during the Arab Spring and was a full throated supporter
of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Today leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have been sentenced
to death en masse and a number of Aljazeera journalists are in prison
in Cairo including my friend Peter Greste.
Saudi Arabia and the GCC even saw fit to remove their ambassadors from
Doha. The sunnis are the majority and the MB has created a schism in
the majority complex. It has become as simple as 'you are either with
us, or against us.' When you consider that backdrop, the state visit
to Qatar, at this moment, was an important 'win' for the Emir.
I appreciate that the raison d'être behind such a visit is prob- ably
to source the deep pools of capital that reside in the GCC for our
I have no doubt that Mozam- bique is the next Qatar (in terms of gas
resources) and the the oil and gas on the eastern seaboard of Africa
from Mozambique all the way through Kenya and Somalia is seriously
material in what remains a hydrocarbon world.
As this region emerges as a gas player, it makes compelling sense to
seek a collaborative approach and not an adversarial one with a player
as important as Qatar is in the global gas markets. In fact, the
overarching theme of our foreign policy should be collaboration and
Interestingly, the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will visit Kenya and
(Nigeria where a second bombing was experienced in Abuja con- firming
Abubakar Shekau's recent comment to President Goodluck ''We are in
your city'') and other destinations on the continent. The president's
wish list surely includes permission to set up a clearing house for
the Chinese currency
renminbi and to conclude discus- sions on the Standard Gauge Railway.
China enjoys a 'special status' with the Jubilee government and this
was a direct consequence of its policy of non-interference in internal
affairs of a sovereign country.
Jubilee partisans saw the "choices have consequences'' comment as
direct interference. In fact, in a quite masterful political move,
Jubilee amplified that com- ment and reaped a handsome vote dividend,
in my view.
Naturally, the thrust of our for- eign policy was singular and aimed
at the ICC. Measuring foreign policy on that issue, its been sin-
gularly effective. It was relentlessly adversarial and I for one began
to get a little nervous when I read the Addis Ababa speech.
There is a tipping point when throwing sand in people's eyes can
become embedded. Look at Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe
certainly had a point but the cost of making it year in year out has
been brutal for the aver- age citizen.
I look forward to visiting Poland this week to attend an EU-Africa
focused conference. The EU takes more than 30 per cent of our exports
and is heavily invested in Kenya Inc. The European Union to Kenya's
Ambassador Lodewijik Briet looked to reset relations in the Standard
"Kenya occupies a very crucial space in the region and the fact that
the president has elected to resolve emerging conflicts in Somalia,
including calling for a special conference on South Sudan is laudable.
It is a pointer to the fact that Kenya has taken a strategic position
regionally and it is for this reason that EU values this country as a
credible partner," said Briet.
The president and his Cabinet Secretary are like conductors. The most
effective conductors make the whole orchestra play.
The economy expanded at 4.7 per cent in 2013. Thats not fast enough.
To grow faster, we need to have everyone all aboard. All aboard!
The Dollar is going nowhere.
reading Brighton Rock by Graham Greene
By any reasonable measure, Russia is getting the best of the West in the showdown over Ukraine. FP
Law & Politics
Could it be that Putin has grasped the meaning of the strategic
standoff with the West better than we have? Has he figured out an
approach -- do we dare call it a strategy? -- that minimizes our
strengths and his weaknesses to achieve his objectives?
I think he has. Whether it is written up in some grand strategy
document, I seriously doubt. But whether playing the game by instinct
or following some plan (in the end it really doesn't matter which),
Putin is taking a page from the doctrine of asymmetrical warfare. He's
minimizing his weaknesses while turning the strengths of his opponents
against themselves. The aim is not merely to control Ukraine as much
as possible but to force the West to accept new terms for the European
order and for the international system at large.
In an April 30, 2014, article in Foreign Policy, "It's Not a Russian
Invasion of Ukraine We Should Be Worried About," Emile Simpson
describes what's at stake: "Framing [the nature of the conflict]
provides a lens that gives meaning to a story, so getting your
opponent to accept your chosen frame gives you power over the meaning
of events. Right now, Russia is winning that battle."
China Buys Friends and Influences Nations
With an anticipated $50 billion kitty, Beijing's new fund could begin
to put the ADB out of business as China effectively bribes leaders
from Dili to Ulaanbaatar. Indonesia needs a swanky new port? Here's $3
billion. Manila's airport needs a facelift? No problem. Thailand's
power grid is overloaded? Send us the bill.
It doesn't take a wild imagination to see this largess growing and
eventually eclipsing the World Bank, too. Beijing may even look beyond
roads and bridges to address balance-of-payments needs. If you're
Vietnam, why go to the IMF and submit to the policy changes and
increased transparency its officials demand in exchange for aid? All
China asks for is friendship and support against rivals -- whether
nationalists in Japan or "splittists" in Taiwan and Tibet. If Myanmar
or Mongolia suddenly suffered a run on their currencies, Beijing
wouldn't send a financial SWAT team with spreadsheets and conditions
-- just a check.
By contrast, the only strings attached to China's money involve its
geopolitical agenda: cheap fossil fuels, isolating Taiwan, winning
control of disputed territory, supporting Beijing's priorities at the
United Nations and elsewhere. With $4 trillion of currency reserves,
China can buy lots of friends. Better to give Beijing a say in current
institutions than to risk having China's largess undermine them
Congo-Kinshasa: Information Minister - Kabila Not Urged to Avoid Third Term
But Information Minister Lambert Mende said there is no way Kerry
could have made such a remark because Kabila has not indicated whether
he will stand in the 2016 elections.
"First of all, I will say that Secretary of State Kerry told us a lot
of things. We are very happy with what he told us, and we agree with
the fact that a government must respect the state constitution. It is
our constitution; it is the will of our people. So, we must respect it
and we have no problem with that advice," he said.
Mende reiterated that Kerry did not urge Kabila not to seek re-election.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.17% 2014
African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma has spoken openly
about why his Nkandla home requires strong security, revealing that
one of his wives was raped there.
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5228 [I expect 10.00 before 11.00]
"There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my
tenure," Sisi said on Egypt's privately-owned CBC and ONTV television
According to a recent survey by the Egyptian polling centre Baseera,
72% of those who intend to vote in the elections say they will back
Sisi, with 2% supporting Sabahi.
Gulf oil producers have given Egypt a free fuel lifeling totalling $6
billion in value to help fend off unrest on its streets in the summer
when consumption soars, the head of its national oil company said.
Tarek El-Molla, head of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
(EGPC), told financial newspaper Al-Mal that the aid consisted of
"huge quantities" of benzene, diesel, heavy fuel oil mazut, butane and
crude oil, since last July.
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.0139
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +23.90% 2014
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.97% 2014