|
Morning Africa |
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
Good Morning from Doha en route to Warsaw. |
read more |
|
Kenya Foreign Policy The ICC Qatar EU Africa |
The recent state visit by President Uhuru Kenyatta to Qatar captured my attention. Qatar has found itself on the wrong side of a red line amongst its Gulf Cooperation Council allies. Qatar pursued aggressive interventions during the Arab Spring and was a full throated supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Today leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have been sentenced to death en masse and a number of Aljazeera journalists are in prison in Cairo including my friend Peter Greste.
Saudi Arabia and the GCC even saw fit to remove their ambassadors from Doha. The sunnis are the majority and the MB has created a schism in the majority complex. It has become as simple as 'you are either with us, or against us.' When you consider that backdrop, the state visit to Qatar, at this moment, was an important 'win' for the Emir.
I appreciate that the raison d'être behind such a visit is prob- ably to source the deep pools of capital that reside in the GCC for our leapfrog moment.
I have no doubt that Mozam- bique is the next Qatar (in terms of gas resources) and the the oil and gas on the eastern seaboard of Africa from Mozambique all the way through Kenya and Somalia is seriously material in what remains a hydrocarbon world.
As this region emerges as a gas player, it makes compelling sense to seek a collaborative approach and not an adversarial one with a player as important as Qatar is in the global gas markets. In fact, the overarching theme of our foreign policy should be collaboration and multi-lateralism.
Interestingly, the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will visit Kenya and (Nigeria where a second bombing was experienced in Abuja con- firming Abubakar Shekau's recent comment to President Goodluck ''We are in your city'') and other destinations on the continent. The president's wish list surely includes permission to set up a clearing house for the Chinese currency renminbi and to conclude discus- sions on the Standard Gauge Railway. China enjoys a 'special status' with the Jubilee government and this was a direct consequence of its policy of non-interference in internal affairs of a sovereign country.
Jubilee partisans saw the "choices have consequences'' comment as direct interference. In fact, in a quite masterful political move, Jubilee amplified that com- ment and reaped a handsome vote dividend, in my view.
Naturally, the thrust of our for- eign policy was singular and aimed at the ICC. Measuring foreign policy on that issue, its been sin- gularly effective. It was relentlessly adversarial and I for one began to get a little nervous when I read the Addis Ababa speech.
There is a tipping point when throwing sand in people's eyes can become embedded. Look at Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe certainly had a point but the cost of making it year in year out has been brutal for the aver- age citizen.
I look forward to visiting Poland this week to attend an EU-Africa focused conference. The EU takes more than 30 per cent of our exports and is heavily invested in Kenya Inc. The European Union to Kenya's Ambassador Lodewijik Briet looked to reset relations in the Standard on Sunday.
"Kenya occupies a very crucial space in the region and the fact that the president has elected to resolve emerging conflicts in Somalia, including calling for a special conference on South Sudan is laudable. It is a pointer to the fact that Kenya has taken a strategic position regionally and it is for this reason that EU values this country as a credible partner," said Briet.
The president and his Cabinet Secretary are like conductors. The most effective conductors make the whole orchestra play.
The economy expanded at 4.7 per cent in 2013. Thats not fast enough. To grow faster, we need to have everyone all aboard. All aboard!
Macro Thoughts
The Dollar is going nowhere.
Home Thoughts
reading Brighton Rock by Graham Greene
|
read more |
|
By any reasonable measure, Russia is getting the best of the West in the showdown over Ukraine. FP Law & Politics |
Could it be that Putin has grasped the meaning of the strategic standoff with the West better than we have? Has he figured out an approach -- do we dare call it a strategy? -- that minimizes our strengths and his weaknesses to achieve his objectives?
I think he has. Whether it is written up in some grand strategy document, I seriously doubt. But whether playing the game by instinct or following some plan (in the end it really doesn't matter which), Putin is taking a page from the doctrine of asymmetrical warfare. He's minimizing his weaknesses while turning the strengths of his opponents against themselves. The aim is not merely to control Ukraine as much as possible but to force the West to accept new terms for the European order and for the international system at large.
In an April 30, 2014, article in Foreign Policy, "It's Not a Russian Invasion of Ukraine We Should Be Worried About," Emile Simpson describes what's at stake: "Framing [the nature of the conflict] provides a lens that gives meaning to a story, so getting your opponent to accept your chosen frame gives you power over the meaning of events. Right now, Russia is winning that battle."
China Buys Friends and Influences Nations http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-05/china-buys-friends-and-influences-nations
With an anticipated $50 billion kitty, Beijing's new fund could begin to put the ADB out of business as China effectively bribes leaders from Dili to Ulaanbaatar. Indonesia needs a swanky new port? Here's $3 billion. Manila's airport needs a facelift? No problem. Thailand's power grid is overloaded? Send us the bill.
It doesn't take a wild imagination to see this largess growing and eventually eclipsing the World Bank, too. Beijing may even look beyond roads and bridges to address balance-of-payments needs. If you're Vietnam, why go to the IMF and submit to the policy changes and increased transparency its officials demand in exchange for aid? All China asks for is friendship and support against rivals -- whether nationalists in Japan or "splittists" in Taiwan and Tibet. If Myanmar or Mongolia suddenly suffered a run on their currencies, Beijing wouldn't send a financial SWAT team with spreadsheets and conditions -- just a check.
By contrast, the only strings attached to China's money involve its geopolitical agenda: cheap fossil fuels, isolating Taiwan, winning control of disputed territory, supporting Beijing's priorities at the United Nations and elsewhere. With $4 trillion of currency reserves, China can buy lots of friends. Better to give Beijing a say in current institutions than to risk having China's largess undermine them completely.
|
read more |
|
Congo-Kinshasa: Information Minister - Kabila Not Urged to Avoid Third Term Africa |
But Information Minister Lambert Mende said there is no way Kerry could have made such a remark because Kabila has not indicated whether he will stand in the 2016 elections.
"First of all, I will say that Secretary of State Kerry told us a lot of things. We are very happy with what he told us, and we agree with the fact that a government must respect the state constitution. It is our constitution; it is the will of our people. So, we must respect it and we have no problem with that advice," he said.
Mende reiterated that Kerry did not urge Kabila not to seek re-election.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.17% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma has spoken openly about why his Nkandla home requires strong security, revealing that one of his wives was raped there. http://news.iafrica.com/sa/921587.html
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5228 [I expect 10.00 before 11.00] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3
"There will be nothing called the Muslim Brotherhood during my tenure," Sisi said on Egypt's privately-owned CBC and ONTV television channels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/06/abdel-fatah-al-sisi-muslim-brotherhood-egypt
According to a recent survey by the Egyptian polling centre Baseera, 72% of those who intend to vote in the elections say they will back Sisi, with 2% supporting Sabahi.
Gulf oil producers have given Egypt a free fuel lifeling totalling $6 billion in value to help fend off unrest on its streets in the summer when consumption soars, the head of its national oil company said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/egypt-oil-idUSL6N0NR0M420140505
Tarek El-Molla, head of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), told financial newspaper Al-Mal that the aid consisted of "huge quantities" of benzene, diesel, heavy fuel oil mazut, butane and crude oil, since last July.
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.0139 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +23.90% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.97% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
|
read more |
|
|
|
|