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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 08th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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European Economic Congress Katowice Poland
Africa


A lot of the First day's discussion was around Energy, Energy Pricing
and I suppose thats because of Events in Ukraine.

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The 2nd Africa – Central Europe Economic Cooperation Forum
Africa


PANEL II
 (8 May 2014 r., godz. 12.00-14.00, Altus)
·       Central European and Polish investments – examples of business
strategies pursued in Africa
·       Invest and create a market. The influence of selected
investments on internal demand stimulation, economic growth and the
development of related industries. A study of good practice
·       Assessment of the “Go Africa” programme after one year of its
operation. The role of diplomacy and administration in supporting the
expansion of European enterprises in Africa
·       Business security in Africa. Types of risks and
risk-mitigating factors. Market knowledge
·       Education and HR – a challenge for Africa. In what way can
European business influence the quality of the African labour & HR
market?
Guests taking part in the session include (in alphabetical order):
Anna Burylo – Head of Operations Section, European Union Delegation to
the African Union; Djiby Diagne* - Head of Research, Strategic
National Plan, Senegal (Plan Sénégal Emergent); Józef Dulian –
Chairman of the Board, Director-General, NITROERG Grupa Kapitałowa
KGHM Polska Miedź SA; Filip Elżanowski – Partner, Kancelaria
Elżanowski, Cherka & Wąsowski; Jacek Jankowski – Ambassador of the
Republic of Poland to Ethiopia; Richard Kasesela – Chairman of the
Board, Mining Advisory Board, Ministry of Energy and Minerals,
Tanzania; Jarosław Kłapucki  – Chairman of the Board, Consus Group;
Joseph Macri – EMEA VP Public Sector, Microsoft Corporation; Killion
Munyama – Member of the Polish Parliament (Sejm);  Andrzej Polus –
Department of European Union Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences,
Institute of International Studies, University of Wroclaw, President
of the Polish Centre for African Studies; Aly-Khan Satchu – CEO, Rich
Management Ltd., Kenya; Mountaga Sy* – General Director, APIX
Moderation: Wojciech Tycholiz – Member of the Board, Polish Centre for
African Studies

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Hagia Sophia could be a mosque/church [I second that]
Africa


However, it is not just Muslims but also Orthodox Christians who yearn
for a free Hagia Sophia in which they can worship their Lord. Both
religions, after all, have a long history here: Hagia Sophia served
Christians from 360 A.D., when it was built by the Byzantine Emperor
Constantine II, to 1453, when Constantinople was conquered by the
Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II. The latter converted Hagia Sophia into a
mosque, and it served Muslims for the next five centuries.

Therefore, I argue, today both religions should have Hagia Sophia
back. The magnificent temple, in other words, should be shared by
Christians and Muslims, both with regards to space and time.

Conclusions

Its a remarkable Place.

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China to Start Anti-Terror Operations After Third Station Attack
Law & Politics


China’s top security official said a special anti-terrorism operation
will begin after a third violent attack this year at a railway station
occurred in Guangzhou, near the border with Hong Kong.

China must “resolutely beat the terrorists’ arrogant brazenness,” Meng
Jianzhu, head of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs and a
member of the Communist Party Politburo, said at a meeting of cadres,
the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday. The country is on
high alert after a series of violent attacks that have shaken its
domestic security apparatus, with more sophisticated acts of violence
blamed on ethnic Uighur separatists from restive Xinjiang province in
China’s northwest.

Yesterday, six people were wounded in the knife attack in the southern
city of Guangzhou, a week after three were killed and 79 hurt when
assailants slashed travelers at the train station in Xinjiang’s
capital, Urumqi, on the same day that President Xi Jinping visited the
city.

Tensions surge in South China Sea as China locks horns with Philippines, Vietnam

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/07/us-china-seas-fishermen-idUSBREA4603C20140507

MANILA/BEIJING (Reuters) - China has demanded the Philippines release
a Chinese fishing boat and its crew seized in the disputed South China
Sea on Wednesday, the latest flare-up in the oil and gas-rich waters
that are claimed wholly or in part by six nations.

Tensions are also brewing in another part of the sea, where China has
warned Vietnam not to disturb activities of Chinese companies
operating near disputed islands. Earlier, Hanoi condemned the movement
of a giant Chinese oil rig into what it said was its territorial
waters.

Dozens of patrol boats and other navy and coastguard vessels from both
countries are in the area, Vietnamese officials say. Some collisions
have taken place, said a navy official, but he did not give details
and they appeared to be minor.

"No shots have been fired yet," said the official, who could not be
identified because he was not authorized to speak to media. "Vietnam
won't fire unless China fires first."
Chief Superintendent Noel Vargas of the Philippine National Police
Maritime Group said a maritime police patrol apprehended a Chinese
fishing boat around 7 a.m. on Tuesday off Half Moon Shoal in the
Spratly Islands on the South China Sea.

The boat has 11 crew and police found about 350 turtles in the vessel,
some of which were already dead, a police report said, adding that a
Philippine boat with crew was also seized, and found to have 70
turtles on board. Several species of sea turtles are protected under
Philippine law.

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02-DEC-2013 ::The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs
Law & Politics


Predicting that the US will continue to send flights through the area,
Francois Godement, senior policy fellow at the European Council on
Foreign relations, said, “What they are doing is dropping their
business card.”

I see the pivot to Asia as the encirclement of China, then the
shrinking of its operating theatre and then lighting the tinderbox
that is the periphery.

The US probably feels it holds a decisive hard power advantage at this
moment and given that the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that
decisive advantage leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has a
logic and momentum of its own. Therefore, I see the US being
increasingly determined to press its advantage

read more


Saudi Arabia Sending Takfiri Fighters to Kiev?
Law & Politics


“A large number of terrorist Takfiri fighters in Syria, who bear Saudi
and Chechnian nationalities and receive financial and military backup
from the Saudi intelligence agency, have been transferred to the
Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on several planes to help the Ukrainian army
in its fight against the pro-Russian population.”

“The forces have been immediately dispatched to Kramatosk city in
Eastern Ukraine, and are now fighting beside the Ukrainian army forces
against the pro-Russians under the name of militias who support the
government.”

The Kremlin's approach might be called "non-linear war"

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-070514.html

Two years into the siege of Homs, the Old City, the last neighborhood
held by the rebels, has been evacuated today in a deal brokered by the
UN and Iran.

http://news.antiwar.com/2014/05/07/after-two-year-siege-syrian-rebels-leave-homs/

Conclusions


Assad is winning.

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Alibaba Files for US Public Offering of E-Commerce Giant
International Trade


The company’s market value is estimated at $168 billion, bigger than
95 percent of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index -- and the most valuable
Internet company after Google Inc., according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. The company is looking to sell about a 12 percent stake,
people familiar with the matter have said, which would make the
offering around $20 billion based on the estimated value.

The value of transactions on Alibaba’s platforms was $248 billion last
year. The number of annual active buyers rose 14 percent to 231
million, each placing an average of 49 orders over that period,
according to the filing.

 “Alibaba has a huge amount of scale,” said Jeff Papp, senior analyst
at Oberweis Asset Management Inc., which oversees $1 billion in Lisle,
Illinois. “The gross market value of the stuff that they’re selling is
massive, and what that’s allowing them to do is create a model in a
way that’s uniquely profitable.”

The IPO will be a boon for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO), which plans to sell
part of its 22.6 percent stake in Alibaba. Other shareholders include
SoftBank (9984) Corp., which will continue to own more than 30 percent
of Alibaba after the offering.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3914 The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.3917, but remained
below a near two-month peak of $1.3952 reached on Tuesday.
Dollar Index 79.21 The dollar held steady versus a basket of major
currencies at 79.208 .DXY, up slightly from a six-month low of 79.06
on Tuesday.
Japan Yen 101.82
Swiss Franc 0.8760
Pound 1.6954 touched $1.6996 yesterday, the strongest since Aug. 6, 2009
Aussie 0.9371 The Aussie dollar rose 0.5 percent to $0.9373, having
added to its gains after data showed that Chinese exports and imports
both rose slightly in April from a year ago
India Rupee 60.04
South Korea Won 1022.31 strongest level since August 2008
Brazil Real 2.2170
Egypt Pound 7.0301
South Africa Rand 10.4568

Sterling has jumped 9.5 percent in the past 12 months, the best
performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro gained 6 percent, while the
dollar weakened 1.1 percent

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.21 [trades very poorly]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3914 [if there are no
surprises from the ECB then it will head towards 1.4000]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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South Korea 6 month Chart INO 1022.045 [strongest level since August 2008]
Emerging Markets


Vietnam Stocks Head for Worst Drop Since 2001 Amid China Tension

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/vietnam-stocks-head-for-worst-drop-since-2001-amid-china-tension.html

The benchmark gauge for Vietnam’s $52 billion equity market has
tumbled 13 percent from this year’s peak on March 24 amid growing
tension with China over disputed waters and speculation that leveraged
traders are liquidating positions. The VN index has wiped out most of
the 20 percent advance through its March high that had made the gauge
this year’s top performer in Asia.

“The talk is all about the political tension,” Michel Tosto, the head
of institutional sales at Viet Capital Securities in Ho Chi Minh City,
said by phone. Some investors are showing signs of “panic” while
others are “bottom-fishing” for beaten-down stocks, he said.

Frontier Markets

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.3%% 2014
Africa


Polling stations will close at 9pm local time. The IEC have seven days
to declare the results.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/05/south-africans-vote-general-election-2014575511319369.html

ANC Takes Early Lead as South African Election Results Roll In

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/anc-set-for-fifth-victory-as-south-african-vote-count-begins.html

With ballots counted in about a quarter of the 22,263 voting districts
so far, the ANC’s support stood at 56.9 percent, according to
provisional figures released by the Independent Electoral Commission.
The main opposition Democratic Alliance won 29.8 percent, while the
Economic Freedom Fighters, a party that was formed in October last
year by expelled ANC youth leader Julius Malema, was in third place
with 4 percent.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.4577 [headed to 10.00, in
my opinion]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.0301

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +24.63% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,333.10 -37.47 -0.45%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.64% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

More than 200 killed in northern Nigeria Boko Haram attack

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.589336

Islamist extremist group Boko Haram has killed more than 200 people in
a raid on a village in north-eastern Nigeria, local newspaper Daily
Trust reported.

Gunmen in armoured vehicles, pick-up trucks and on motorcycles
attacked the village of Gamboru in Borno State on Monday night, but
details about the attack only became public on Wednesday.

"People are still counting the dead bodies. They have counted over 200
and they have not finished yet," said Abdulrahman Terab, a federal
lawmaker from Gamboru.

Nigeria faces a serious domestic test of its stability which also
threatens regional peace and security Amnesty

http://livewire.amnesty.org/2014/05/07/nigerias-serious-test-of-stability/

There are vast distances between the cities. The terrain is
varied. Forest gives way to savanna with scattered trees (shea, locust
bean), and then to drier Sahel landscape.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/books/2014/05/captivity.html

On these journeys one forgets city life, enters into something more
delicate and more fragile.

Where are they now? The shock of a sudden captivity will have given
way to other fears. There are more than two hundred of them, Muslim
and Christian. Nigeria’s northeastern border is massive, porous. They
don’t know when they crossed the border, or if they crossed the
border. They could be in Niger, or Chad, or Cameroon (these three
neighboring countries are impoverished states with weak security). The
girls know only what their captors say. They have lost track of time.
But they feel, in their bodies, the distances covered by the rumbling
trucks. They cannot imagine what the world is thinking about them, or
if it is.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.1% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Zimbabwe Plans to Secure Chinese Financing With Gold, Diamonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/zimbabwe-plans-to-secure-chinese-financing-with-gold-diamonds.html

Zimbabwe owes China about $1.5 billion in loans taken out since 2011,
said Samuel Undenge, the southern African nation’s deputy economic
planning minister.

Zimbabwe’s government, facing deflation and a liquidity crunch, is
trying to revive an economy that has shrunk by 49 percent since 2000,
according to ZimTrade, a government organization that promotes trade
and investment.

Zimbabwe has the world’s biggest platinum and chrome reserves after
South Africa and it also has deposits of gold, coal and iron, all of
which provide the country’s largest source of foreign exchange.

The world's most wanted woman, Samantha Lewthwaite, dubbed the White
Widow, is being protected in Somalia by al-Qaeda fighters.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/white-widow-samantha-lewthwaite-being-protected-by-15-al-qaeda-suicide-fighters-114050700866_1.html

read more


Economy faces bad weather and terrorism shocks @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


“If the risks are sustained at the current levels or intensify in
frequency we will have entered a new normal and this six per cent-plus
forecast will be a hard attain,” said Aly-Khan Satchu, who runs an
investment advisory and data vending firm Rich Management.

Kenya is also facing the prospect of increased capital flight as the
European and American economies recover from the crisis that has
dogged them since the onset of the global financial meltdown in 2008.

Mr Satchu said tourism was so beholden to “news flow” that its
earnings would probably remain under downward pressure this year,
putting a damper on economy-wide growth.

“Europe and the US are on the mend but tourism is beholden to news
flow and it is difficult for tourism to raise its head in the current
environment,'' said Mr Satchu.

American business information firm Teneo Intelligence – with
representation in Kenya – told its clients a briefing Monday that the
simultaneous attacks in Kenya’s capital Nairobi and port city of
Mombasa pointed towards a new level of sophistication and boldness by
terrorists that if not stopped could have serious ramifications on
economic activity.

“By attacking bus stations and transport hubs the assailants
understand that they can slowly cripple Kenya’s economy, which
continues to be undermined by the challenging security outlook,” said
the brief.

read more




Kenyan Court to Rule on Payments Needed to Begin Eurobond Sale
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s High Court will today rule on a bid by the nation’s top legal
body to temporarily halt two court-awarded payments that the
government must make before it can proceed with a planned Eurobond
offering.

The Law Society of Kenya asked the court to suspend the payments
currently being considered for approval by lawmakers until a ruling on
their petition to stop them completely is made on May 26, James Mwamu,
a spokesman for the society, said in the capital, Nairobi. Justice
David Majanja is expected to make a ruling on the requested suspension
at 2 p.m.

The LSK, which represents all of Kenya’s lawyers, served a petition on
Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich and Attorney-General Githu Muigai on
May 5 seeking to stop the 1.4 billion-shilling ($16 million) payments
ordered by courts in Geneva and London.

Rotich said April 29 the government is unable to sell as much as $2
billion of Eurobonds until the payments are made. The court awards,
made in Geneva in 2012 and London in 2013, are linked to contracts
that the Kenyan government awarded to Swiss and British companies to
supply communication equipment between 1997 and 2004.

The agreements relate to a corruption scandal, known as Anglo-Leasing,
in which contracts were secured by the Kenyan government through a
“fake company,” Mwamu said, citing an investigation by the
government’s anti-graft agency. The investigation then found that the
companies had no directors or offices, he said.

Transparency International, the Berlin-based anti-graft watchdog, said
April 30 that parliament approving the awards to “faceless entities”
would be rewarding corruption. Procurement processes weren’t followed
in signing the contracts with companies, and transactions were
concluded outside the budget process, Transparency said.

Kenya is selling Eurobonds to help fund infrastructure projects aimed
at helping the economy become a middle-income economy by 2030 and to
help repay a $600 million syndicated loan due this month. The Treasury
said in February it was considering talks with lenders to extend
repayment of the facility for three years, the Nairobi-based Business
Daily newspaper reported in February.

The sale of Eurobonds “cannot take place unless all obligations
related to the court awards are paid,” Rotich said in a statement on
April 29. Payment will “protect Kenya’s hard-won international
reputation as a country which meets its lawful obligations.”

Kenya’s government wants to make the payment to avoid a default
situation that may reduce its credit ratings, Robert Bunyi, managing
director of Nairobi-based Mavuno Capital said by phone. Kenya’s
long-term, foreign currency debt has been assigned a B+ rating by
Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, four levels below investment
grade and on par with Mongolia. It has the equivalent B1 rating from
Moody’s Investors Service.

“They may be fictitious contracts, but they exist and can’t be wished
away,” Bunyi said. “They have a bearing on the country’s credit
assessment.”

Parliamentary budget committee Chairman Mutava Musyimi April 30
withdrew a motion he tabled in the house to approve the payments,
citing the need for further consultation on the issue.

The Treasury is seeking parliamentary approval to make the payments
after the attorney general advised the awards be paid. There is no
room to further appeal the Swiss and London court rulings, and the
awards are accruing penalty interest of 96.6 million shillings per
year, according to Rotich’s statement.

‘Everyone Is Corrupt in Kenya, Even Grandmothers’  MICHELA WRONG

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/06/everyone_is_corrupt_in_kenya_even_grandmothers

Kenya Allocates Seven Oil Blocks to Nigerian Companies

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/kenya-allocates-seven-oil-blocks-to-nigerian-companies/177982/

Nigerian businessmen have been awarded seven oil blocks for
exploration from the 46 newly discovered oil blocks in Kenya.

The Chairman of the Nigeria-Kenya Chamber, Dr. Kiprono Kittony,
disclosed in Abuja late on Monday that this was agreed at a meeting
with prominent businessmen from both countries.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.152

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.064% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

151.77 +0.34 0.22%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.3911% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,946.24 +3.37 +0.07%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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