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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 14th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I look forward to hosting the “Banking CEO of the Year” for 2014
National Bank Chief Executive Officer Munir Ahmed at #Mindspeak May
17th

read more




Mr Confuorti (the President of Advantage Financial, about which I am sure you will hear a great deal in the near term) is a magnetic personality
Africa


whom I met in Nairobi and he is kind of irresistible. I am a deep
believer in serendipity and the ‘power of pull’ and I like being in
the company of folks who can bend serendipity at a per- sonal level. I
have found that in life, you can be the most intelligent person on the
block but without serendipity and the power of pull, all that
intelligence can be a wasted asset.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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央视网视频 > 深度国际 > 《深度国际》 20140509 中国“新殖民主义论”背后 CNTV
Africa


本期介绍
本期节目主要内容: 中国两位领导人习近平、李克强接连踏上非洲这片大陆,中非关系迎来全面合作升级版。伴随中非合作的日趋成熟,“中国在非洲搞新殖民主义”的传言也传来。西方还认为中国在非洲进行基础设施建设,是为了其总体战略服务。中国和非洲有着相似的历史和命运,中非合作也将会完美诠释“休戚与共”的丰富内涵,任何别有用心的论调都将会不攻自破。
(《深度国际》 20140509 中国“新殖民主义论”背后)

The main content of this program: two Chinese leaders Xi Jinping, Li
Keqiang foot on the African continent after another, ushered
China-Africa relations and comprehensive cooperation upgrade. With the
increasing maturity of China-Africa cooperation, "Chinese
neo-colonialism in Africa to engage in" rumors also came. West also
believes that China build infrastructure in Africa is to their overall
strategy. China and Africa share a similar history and fate of
China-Africa Cooperation will also be a perfect interpretation of
"solidarity," the rich content, will have any ulterior motives
argument proved unfounded. ("Deep International" 20140509 Chinese
"neo-colonialism theory" behind)

read more


"The dynasty per se is finished. It will be a long slow death but it is incredibly difficult to see them recover from here," said Ramachandra Guha, an Indian political historian and commentator.
Law & Politics


Nehru Gandhi

http://ridingtheelephant.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/the-gandhi_family.jpg

Pro-Russian separatists ambushed Ukrainian troops on Tuesday, killing
seven in the heaviest loss of life for government forces in a single
clash since Kiev sent soldiers to put down a rebellion in the
country's east.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA4C0PV20140513

It's just a matter of waiting for the NATO junta to go broke, and
frozen to death.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-130514.html

“This Is What a Holy Sxxt Moment for Global Warming Looks Like,”
read a headline on the Web site of Mother Jones.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2014/05/the-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-melt-defending-the-drama.html

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3718
Dollar Index 80.03 Dollar bounce entirely because of the Euro being
wrestled lower by Draghi
Japan Yen 102.14
Swiss Franc 0.8890
Pound 1.6860 Sterling touched $1.6996 on May 6, the highest since August 2009.
Aussie 0.9403 touched 94.09, the highest since April 15.
India Rupee 59.43 My Target is 57.50
South Korea Won 1026.75 touched 1,020.97 on May 9, a level unseen
since August 2008. Korean Won Falls Most Since February on Suspected
Intervention
Brazil Real 2.2146
Egypt Pound 7.0551
South Africa Rand 10.2954 The Rand is at 2014 highs

The euro slid 1.1 percent in the past week, the worst performer after
the Swiss franc among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by
Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen rose 0.2 percent while
the dollar advanced 0.5 percent. The pound lost 0.1 percent. The
Australian dollar led gains with a 1.4 percent advance.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3718 [Draghi has persuaded
the market of his intentions next month]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.03

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1295.45 [trades without conviction]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

The metal fell on May 12 to $1,280.02, the lowest level since May 2,
according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

Gold has rallied 7.6 percent this year in part as tension between
Ukraine and Russia boosted haven demand.

Insurgents killed seven Ukrainian soldiers in an ambush yesterday as
the defense minister said the country was fighting an “undeclared war”
with Russia.

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 102.05 [toppish]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.M14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for June delivery increased as much as 45 cents to $102.15 in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at
$102.05 at 3:11 p.m. Seoul time. The contract gained $1.11 to $101.70
yesterday, the highest close since April 24. The volume of all futures
traded was about 11 percent above the 100-day average. Prices have
advanced 3.7 percent this year.

A 100-carat Graff yellow diamond ring sold for 14.5 million Swiss
francs ($16 million) last night at a Sotheby’s (BID) auction in Geneva

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-13/graff-yellow-diamond-fetches-16-million-at-sotheby-s-in-geneva.html

read more




“The Development Implications of the Fracking Revolution” Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Africa


If Chinese shale gas production increases as predicted, African
countries that provide its current supply could suffer greatly.

Angola and the Republic of Congo would incur the greatest losses — an
estimated 13 percent drop in national earnings from energy exports.
Guinea and Sudan could lose as much as 5 percent and Yemen 4 percent,
according to the study.

Africa experienced similar decreases when the U.S. took to fracking.
In the five to 10 years it took the U.S. to develop its
infrastructure, African exporters lost $1.5 billion in gas and $32
billion in oil revenues.

Shale oil exports to the U.S. from OPEC's African members Angola,
Algeria and Nigeria fell to their lowest in decades from 2011–12 —
dropping 41 percent — largely because of the U.S. fracking revolution,
the U.S. Department of Energy said.

In May 2013, Nigerian Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke called U.S.
shale oil a "grave concern." African OPEC countries produce oil of a
similar grade to shale oil and therefore suffer some of the worst
economic effects as a result of North America's fracking boom.

Countries like Yemen, Mozambique, Ghana, Congo, Trinidad and Tobago,
and Mauritania could also experience losses and lower incomes as a
result of China’s increased production, the report said.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.87% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.2954

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

South Africa's rand hits fresh 2014 highs vs dollar

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0DT15320140513

South Africa's rand extended gains to a 2014 high of 10.2725 against
the dollar on Tuesday, breaking through a 10.3000 technical level
after a positive credit rating opinion from Moody's in the wake of
last week's elections.

The rand appears to have snapped a more than 12 month down trend and
that is a constructive forward indicator 07-APR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0705.pdf

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.0551

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +24.24% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,307.19 63.41 +0.77%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.69% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Nigeria signals readiness to talk to Boko Haram rebels

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/us-nigeria-girls-idUSBREA4A0B620140513

"The window of negotiation is still open," Minister of Special Duties
Tanimu Turaki told Reuters by telephone.

Jonathan returned to Abuja on Tuesday from the Congo Republic, where
he held talks with President Denis Sassou ahead of a regional summit
in Paris on Saturday.

He asked parliament on Tuesday for a six-month extension of a state of
emergency in the northeastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe due to
persistent attacks by Boko Haram. The emergency was declared last May
and extended in November.

Yobe state Governor Ibrahim Gaidam rejected the proposal on the
grounds that local people had suffered under the emergency and this
harmed the government's counter-insurgency strategy.

“If they knew where they were, I certainly would send in US troops to
rescue them, in a New York minute I would, without permission of the
host country,” @SenJohnMcCain said on Tuesday.

http://rt.com/news/158756-nigeria-schoolgirls-mccain-rescue/

“I wouldn’t be waiting for some kind of permission from some guy named
Goodluck Jonathan,” he declared, in reference to Nigeria’s president.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +4.43% 2014 [BUT
CRUSHED ON FX see below]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Currency fall deepens Ghana's cocoa smuggling troubles

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/ivorycoast-ghana-cocoa-idINL6N0NY34S20140512

* Ghana's cedi has slipped 23 pct against dollar this year

* Farmers seeking to cash in on I.Coast's higher price

* Trafficking likely to continue, analysts say

By Joe Bavier and Sarah McFarlane


Ghana's falling currency has fuelled smuggling of as much as 100,000
tonnes of cocoa into neighbouring Ivory Coast since October, reversing
a trend, industry sources said.

Cocoa smuggling between the world's two biggest cocoa producers is
common, but over the past decade it has mainly involved Ivorian beans
being taken illegally to Ghana.

That has changed this season.


Ghana's cedi currency, which the government has struggled to prop up,
has fallen nearly 23 percent against the dollar so far this year,
while Ivory Coast's euro-pegged CFA franc has remained stable, making
the country's official farmer price around 24 percent higher than
Ghana's.

Ghana focussing on "home-grown" strategy to tackle fiscal crisis -president

http://af.reuters.com/article/ghanaNews/idAFL6N0NZ3L120140513

"What we are concentrating on is the preparation of a home-grown
strategy of fiscal consolidation. It is our expectation that both our
domestic and international partners will join us in the implementation
of this strategy," he said.

read more


Policy makers are getting crunched in places like Ghana. 28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel
Africa


A more than 30 per cent collapse in a currency is a direct
cause-and-effect of poor policy making. Putting Humpty Dumpty together
again is not an easy thing.

read more


Atlas Mara Co-Nvest Ltd. (ATMA), the investment firm backed by former Barclays Plc (BARC) Chief Executive Officer Robert Diamond, disclosed plans for a share sale that would raise about $400 million for future acquisitions.
Africa


The company will sell 36.5 million shares for $11 apiece to investors,
Atlas Mara said in a statement yesterday.

Diamond, who quit Barclays in July 2012 after the British bank
admitted rigging global interest rates, and Ugandan entrepreneur Anish
Thakkar raised $325 million for the venture in an initial public
offering last year. They committed $20 million each of their own money
to the company, which lists an address in Tortola, British Virgin
Islands and has said it wants to focus on Africa.

The executives are targeting a region where a third of the economies
are expanding at more than 6 percent, according to the World Bank. In
March, Atlas Mara agreed to buy BancABC, which offers financial
services in Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and
said it will use the company as a springboard for further
acquisitions.

Diamond last month hired former Barclays colleague John Vitalo as
Atlas Mara’s CEO. Vitalo had been head of the London-based bank’s
operations in the Middle East and North Africa since 2009.

read more


Kenya May Reschedule Payment of $600 Million Syndicated Loan Businessweek
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is considering rescheduling a $600 million syndicated loan as
part of its discussions with commercial banks about repaying the debt
that matures this month, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said.

The East African nation in its 2013-14 budget said it will settle the
syndicated loan with the proceeds from a proposed Eurobond, an
offering that has been repeatedly delayed since September. The
government says it’s prevented by law from issuing sovereign debt
until it pays two court awards, made in Geneva in 2012 and London last
year, totaling 1.4 billion shillings ($16 million) that must be
approved by parliament.

“We are discussing within and with the banks, and are considering
various options including retiring the loan, and if we get an offer
for rescheduling, we can consider that also,” Rotich said today by
phone from the capital, Nairobi.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange would sell up to a 38 percent stake in
an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of next month its chief
executive, Peter Mwangi, said yesterday.

http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/kenya-nairobi-bourse-to-list-38-stake-1.1687248#.U3Iqkr-XK8U

The Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed company announced a 15.4 per
cent drop in net profit for the year ended December 2013 on the back
of lower sales.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/TransCentury-hit-by-Sh1bn-loss-from-RVR-exit-/-/539550/2313672/-/12solmoz/-/index.html

TransCentury is set to book a Sh1 billion loss this financial year
from its recent divestiture from Rift Valley Railways (RVR), the
company has revealed in its latest annual report.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/TransCentury-hit-by-Sh1bn-loss-from-RVR-exit-/-/539550/2313672/-/12solmoz/-/index.html

TransCentury earned Sh3.78 billion in March from sale of its 34 per
cent stake in RVR to Cairo-based private equity fund Citadel Capital.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.252

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +11.43066% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

152.27 -0.40 -0.26%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.92875% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,975.39 +41.98 +0.85%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share eased 0.65% to close at 151.28.
The All Share has been on a real hot streak setting a Sequence of All
Time Highs in April and June.
The All Share is +10.706% in 2014 and is just 1% under a record High.
The Nairobi NSE20 closed 34.39 points lower at 4940.99. The NSE20
spent a good deal of January above 5,000 but has been unable to poke
its head over that level since then.
Equity Turnover was 600.238m



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Limuru Tea traded 2,500 shares at 670.00 +8.06%. Limuru Tea is +34.00%
in 2014 and given the proximity of its Tea Estate to Nairobi trades at
the steepest discount to Net Asset Value of any counter in this niche.
The Real estate value remains a steep multiple of the share price.

Sasini Tea and Coffee traded 3.47% lower to close at 16.70 and traded
70,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased 1.95% to close at 12.60 and traded 12.96m shares worth
163.411m. Safaricom has retreated 2.32% over 2 sessions since
releasing its Full Year Earnings in a ''Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact''
type of profit taking trading pattern. Safaricom released muscular FY
Earnings. The Core Voice Franchise posted double digit growth of
11.6%, M-Pesa posted a 22% Expansion and Mobile Data ramped 41% higher
year on year. The Signal in the Noise was the eye popping +51.61% hike
in the Dividend. The 2 two day drawdown has been real orderly and will
be short lived. Data is the next big thing [in my opinion] and this
was evidenced in the 41% year on year acceleration. Safaricom is
+16.129% in 2014 and the dividend is worth a further 3.73%. Safaricom
trades at a premium to the likes of MTN and with good reason and this
premium will remain intact.

Kenya Airways improved 0.8% to close at 12.55 and transacted 659,900
shares. Kenya Airways reports Full Year Earnings June 4th and the
commercial Director steered earnings expectations to a Full Year
Profit, last month. This has not been reflected in the Price

Standard Group bounced 3.65% higher to close at 35.50. Shares are
tightly held but the Times Media offer for Radio Africa has made
Standard look cheap in the comparison. Standard is +36.53% this year
with most of that happening since the announcement by Times Media.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Housing Finance was a Big Winner at the Exchange rallying +7.6388% to
close at 38.75 and traded 475,100 shares. HFCK is +23.015% in 2014.

Liberty Kenya traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased 3.6144% to close at
20.00 on heavy volume of 5.038m shares [representing 0.9778% of the
company and a material position] worth 100.779m. Liberty Kenya has
posted a 32.89% return this year and reported a FY PAT Acceleration of
+28.91%. ''liberty Kenya's performance in 2013 was reassuringly sound
across our main business activities'' was how the Company
characterised its performance at the Full Year Earnings Release.

Jubilee Insurance tracked 2.88% higher to close at 321.00 and traded
14,600 shares. Jubilee is +14.64% this year and has lagged its Peers
and hence has some space to the Upside.

CFC Stanbic closed unchanged at 148.00 a more than 60 month high and
traded 403,000 shares worth 59.869m. CFC StanBic has soared +70.11% in
2014 and recently reported a +59% acceleration in Net Profit in Q1.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 47.00 and traded 1.021m
shares. KCB has lagged the Banking Rally in 2014 and -0.52% in 2014
and after a +33.72% Q1 2014 Profit After Tax acceleration has some
headroom.
Diamond Trust whose Rights issue is a racing certainty to be
oversubscribed tracked 2.16% higher to close the session at 236.00.
Diamond Trust is +22.91% this year.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 16.95 and traded 1.991m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


ARM eased 0.51% to close at 84.00 and traded 253,000 shares. ARM
reported a +12% Acceleration in FY Profit before Tax and will see
significant margin expansion in H2 as its Clinker Capacity comes on
line.

Eveready rallied 5.405% to close at 3.90 and traded 32,700 shares.
Eveready has posted a +44.44% rally so far this year. Interestingly, a
number of the smaller cap stocks have posted some blistering returns
this year and this is a noteworthy development and speaks to the
broadening out of the more than two year rally.

Unga rallied +4.95% to close at 26.50 and traded 9,000 shares. Unga
has posted a +47.222% rally in 2014.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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