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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 15th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I look forward to hosting the “Banking CEO of the Year” for 2014
National Bank Chief Executive Officer Munir Ahmed at #Mindspeak May
17th

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央视网视频 > 深度国际 > 《深度国际》 20140509 中国“新殖民主义论”背后 CNTV
Africa


CHINA IN AFRICA: A CLOSE FRIEND OR A NEO COLONIALIST? – ANALYSIS Eurasia
http://www.eurasiareview.com/14052014-china-africa-close-friend-neo-colonialist-analysis/

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Ethiopia, Nigeria, Angola and Kenya
between 4th and 11th May 2014. It was Li’s first visit to Africa, and
coincides with the 50th anniversary of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s
first visit to Africa in 1964. Li’s visit has been considered as
another milestone in China-Africa relations.

China is nurturing its relationship with Africa from a futuristic
perspective. It is evident from Premier Li’s speech when he underlined
that Africa ‘plays an important role in safeguarding world peace and
stability’ , ‘is an important force in the democratization of
international relations’ , is an important pole of the world politics’
and more importantly ‘Africa is world’s fastest growing economic
region’ and ‘a new pole of global economic growth.’ Therefore, we see
China-Africa relationship changing from a mere political and economic
significance towards a deeper comprehensive strategic partnership
aimed at the future

read more


Sunset over Amsterdam
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I saw all my Girls yesterday except for Aysha who called me from School.

I said to Nishet ''Aysha called me.''

She said ''Oh! She never calls me.''

And I wanted to shout

''But Darling Who's her Daddy?''

read more


The scale of our indoctrination wrote Harold Pinter is a “brilliant, even witty highly successful act of hypnosis”
Law & Politics


What matters is not truth, Henry Kissinger once said, but "but what is
perceived to be true".

read more


@NarendraModi: man of the masses WILLIAM DALRYMPLE
Law & Politics


In the intense afternoon heat, the streets of Delhi lay deserted.
April is hot in northern India, but on this occasion it was not
because the capital was befuddled by the sort of gasping summer
temperatures that Truman Capote described as a “white midnight”.
Instead the streets were empty because it was polling day in the Delhi
leg of the largest and most complex election in human history.

By the time the results are announced on 16 May, 815 million voters –
more than 12 times the population of the UK, or over two and a half
times the population of the US – will have cast their vote at one of
900,000 polling stations. One-fifth of the electorate will be voting
for the first time, adding to the sense of unpredictability. The
polling is staggered over nine separate stages to allow the
redeployment of more than eight million security and election
personnel around the country. In a further effort to prevent trouble,
and to encourage participation, the shops and the bars are closed at
each stage and everyone gets a day off.

So it was on that afternoon that the normally cacophonous Delhi roads
were strangely empty. The only sound was the whirr of discarded
political flyers tumbling in the late-afternoon breeze along the
deserted sidewalks. In a city usually bursting with humanity, the only
faces on show were those on election hoardings. And they were
everywhere: filling every frame attached to every lamp post and every
bus shelter, glued to every wall – the same three faces repeated over
and over, all the way down the tree-lined avenues, up the flyovers and
down into the cavernous entrances of the gleaming new Metro stations.

Rahul came across as conceited and dim, if not borderline
messianic-delusional, as he talked about himself in the third person:
“You’ve got to understand a little bit about who Rahul Gandhi is,” he
began. “Everybody understands that this fellow here is not just a
superficial chap who just talks. This fellow over here is thinking
deeply and long term.”

When not praising his own profundity, he parroted the same
pre-prepared answers, irrespective of the question he was asked.

What did he think about the Gujarat riots? “The real issue at hand
here is empowering the women of this country.”

Why did his party protect corrupt MPs? “The issue at hand is bringing
youngsters into the political system.”

Why had he not spoken up when his government had sold coal reserves
and telecom rights to party cronies for a fraction of their true
worth? “The real issue here is bringing youngsters into the political
system.”

Outnumbering the poster images of Gandhi and Kejriwal many times over
in the Delhi streets is the face of this election’s overwhelming
front-runner, Narendra Modi.

Modi is the Hindu nationalist son of a station chai-wallah, and as
different a man as could be imagined from the shahzada, or
“princeling”, as Modi mockingly refers to the heir to the Nehru-Gandhi
dynasty. With Kejriwal reduced to a minor player, the election in most
of the country has been an unequal contest between the Modi juggernaut
and a beleaguered Rahul, who is in the process of taking the can for
the failings of a government he didn’t lead and can do little to
redeem.

“He is teetotal and vegetarian and lives an almost monastic
lifestyle,” one told me. “He is extremely focused. When he talks to
you he really listens: he can focus like few people I know.” “He calls
it a day by eleven and gets up at four in the morning,” another aide
said. “He spends the first 90 minutes of the day happily surfing the
internet for articles about himself. His staff start getting calls by
5.30, latest.” “He is obsessed with personal hygiene,” said a third.
“He changes his clothes at least four or five times a day. And he
always eats alone. Always.”

Conclusions


@NarendraModi will surely accelerate India Inc along the Gujarat
Model. The Social consequences of a very exclusive View about India
Inc is however difficult to model.

read more



Sea strife follows Obama in Asia
Law & Politics


MANILA - US President Barack Obama's late April visit to Asia, where
he met leaders of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines,
was aimed at reassuring allies in the region of Washington's
commitment to serving as an anchor of stability in Asia. But Obama's
tour may have had the opposite effect.

Maritime tensions between Southeast Asian countries and China have
intensified since US President Barack Obama's visit last month, with
the usually restrained Vietnam demonstrating its willingness to test
the limits of American security commitments by dispatching vessels to
an altercation with Chinese ships. Association of Southeast Asian
Nations chairman Myanmar is also put to the test.

From China's perspective, Obama's stated commitments to the security
of its allies represent a thinly veiled encirclement strategy aimed at
containing its influence. In apparent response, Beijing has again
aggressively asserted its claims over contested maritime areas, this
time by dispatching a US$1 billion deep-water oil drilling rig to an
area near the Paracel Islands that is
claimed by Vietnam as part of its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic
zone (EEZ).

Vietnamese officials claimed, backed up by video, that Chinese ships
rammed and fired water cannons at their vessels sent to the contested
area, attacks that allegedly damaged several boats and injured at
least six people. They said Chinese ships continued the offensive
actions for three consecutive days, while Vietnamese ships exercised
restraint.

Against the backdrop of rising tensions, the recently concluded
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Myanmar was
predominantly focused on establishing multilateral mechanisms to
prevent an armed conflict in the South China Sea. Under new Secretary
General Le Luong Minh, a former Vietnamese diplomat, ASEAN has called
for a more robust regional response to the ongoing disputes,
specifically the establishment of a legally binding code of conduct in
the South China Sea.

China has apparently sought to justify its latest maneuver as a
logical response to what it views as "provocative" and "destabilizing"
actions by the United States and its allies in the region.

"From Tokyo to Manila, Obama has tried to pick his words so as not to
antagonize Beijing. But from the US-Japan joint statement to the new
US-Philippines defense agreement, it is increasingly obvious that
Washington is taking Beijing as an opponent," wrote China's state-run
newspaper, China Daily, which is generally noted for more measured
language vis-a-vis the US. "With Obama reassuring the US' allies of
protection in any conflict with China, it is now clear that Washington
is no longer bothering to conceal its attempt to contain China's
influence in the region."

During his trip to Asia, Obama pledged the US's categorical military
support to Japan if a conflict were to erupt over the Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands in the East China Sea, strengthening the Shinzo Abe
administration's leverage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate
bilateral tensions with China.

In the East China Sea, the balance of power has slightly shifted in
favor of Japan, which has, in turn, encouraged China to more seriously
consider a diplomatic rather than military course. In the South China
Sea, however, China continues to enjoy a considerable strategic
advantage, which allows Beijing to believe it can push the envelope
without risking a major reaction.

As the top trading partner of almost all Southeast Asian countries,
with the notable exception of the Philippines, China enjoys tremendous
economic leverage over its neighbors. That's factored into ASEAN's
inability until now to develop a united front on the South China Sea
disputes.

Conclusions


My Question is more around the Leash that @BarackObama holds over his Allies.

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Hundreds of Chinese had fled Vietnam, either by air or by crossing into neighboring Cambodia, reports said.
Law & Politics


More than 20 people were killed and rioters attacked Vietnam's biggest
steel plant overnight as violent anti-China protests spread to the
centre of the country a day after arson and looting in the south, a
doctor and newspapers said on Thursday.

A doctor at a hospital in central Ha Tinh province said five
Vietnamese workers and 16 other people described as Chinese were
killed in the rioting, one of the worst breakdowns in Sino-Vietnamese
relations since the neighbors fought a brief border war in 1979.

read more


Times of Oman | News :: Vietnam mobs set fire to foreign factories
Law & Politics


The Snake @Aiww

http://www.twitpic.com/bdl6zk

While sectarian fault lines largely define the Middle East’s
geopolitical order, a “Sunni Cold War” is simultaneously influencing
the regional network of alliances. Eurasia

http://www.eurasiareview.com/14052014-uaes-preservation-status-quo-analysis/

On one side, the distinctly undemocratic polity in Saudi Arabia
vehemently opposes Islamist political parties that promote democratic
institutions. On the other, Turkey and Qatar support the spread of
‘democratic Islamism’ throughout the region.

In reality, China is still in the East India Company stage of global
economic strategy – opportunistic and pragmatic rather than
ideological and intellectually coherent.

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/05/14/china-abroad-traders-not-imperialists/

(It is something of an irony that the one-party autocracy of China is
proving itself eclectic while the open-market democracy of the US has
been doctrinaire.) And while there are some signs that China’s
economic statecraft is moving towards the transparent and
plurilateral, most of its policies towards other emerging markets are
opaque and self-interested.

China’s much-discussed presence in Africa, for example, is often
accompanied by populist rhetoric from Chinese officials about the need
for a new economic model appropriate to Africa. African leaders tired
of the privatisation and deregulation conditions attached to IMF and
World Bank money no doubt welcome China’s willingness to let them keep
more control of their economy. But China’s loans are marked by an
absence of conditionality altogether rather than a different type. (It
is hardly alone in this: the conditionality-light loans of the
Corporación Andina de Fomento, a regional development bank run by
sixteen Latin American and Caribbean countries plus Spain and
Portugal, now finances more infrastructure in Latin America than the
World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank combined.)

Indeed, while China can be regarded as a huge aid lender, eclipsing
the World Bank on some measures, its assistance very largely comes in
forms that promote exports and investment for Chinese companies – a
type of aid financing that Western donors have progressively been
persuaded to reform over the past twenty years. With China’s
activities in Africa going way beyond the well-known projects of
resource extraction to seeing the continent as a valuable trading
partner, its financing is squarely aimed at extending its own
commercial and investment interests.

Yet if anything, China’s activities in Africa are less political than
in earlier decades. Its campaign from the 1960s onwards of building
infrastructure, including the famous Tazara railway from central
Zambia to the Tanzanian port capital of Dar es Salaam, were aimed
squarely at gaining friends in the region as a counterweight to the
Soviet Union and the US.

These days, China’s direct forays into Africa’s politics are
relatively sparse and measured, and the only explicitly political
demand in return for assistance is usually to derecognise Taiwan as an
independent nation. Chinese ambassadors to Zambia, for example, have
created a stir by speaking out against Zambian politicians who are
hostile to China’s ownership of copper mines and other investments.
But those interventions have been confined to protecting Chinese
interests in the country rather than freelancing widely about national
politics, and the volume of their complaints has reduced along with
declining hostility towards China from the Zambian government.

Anyone expecting a rapid shift from the Chinese equivalent of the East
India Company to the British Empire is likely to be disappointed.
China is not an empire: it is a vastly successful trading nation which
uses state power to further its commercial interests around the globe.
Its economic diplomacy is characterised by hard-nosed opportunism, not
by plurilateral or multilateral cooperation. Its own internal changes,
together with the goals it struggles to achieve on its own, suggest
only a slow migration from one to the other.

Conclusions


Aly-Khan Satchu | May 15 7:04am | Permalink

China is like any other Country and the course is surely determined by
a very hard nosed view of its own National Interest. In Africa, some
might regard China as a Santa Claus but they too will be disavowed of
this Notion. China's Thirst for commodities [and fuel for its economic
Engine] predictably lifted the entire Commodity Price Curve. China saw
this in advance and realised quickly that Africa could slake its
thirst. They moved in. Aly-Khan Satchu

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3715 The Finger is itching and on the trigger
Dollar Index 80.04 s
Japan Yen 101.86 Stronger than expected GDP Expansion in Q1
Swiss Franc 0.8897
Pound 1.6770 LOOKING TO RE ENTER ON THE LONG SIDE
Aussie 0.9376
India Rupee 59.44 Headed to 57.50
South Korea Won 1025.75
Brazil Real 2.2026
Egypt Pound 7.1049 [has been easing but in an orderly manner so far]
South Africa Rand 10.3123 looking for a move to 10.00

read more


Japan’s Economy Accelerated in First Quarter
International Trade


Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace since 2011 in the first
quarter as companies stepped up investment and consumers splurged
before the first sales-tax rise in 17 years last month.

Gross domestic product grew an annualized 5.9 percent from the
previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, more than a
4.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 32
economists. Consumer spending rose at the fastest pace since the
quarter before the 1997 tax increase, while capital spending jumped
the most since 2011.

Today’s data add to signs the economy will have sufficient momentum to
bounce back from the 3 percentage point levy rise that is set to
trigger a contraction this quarter. Such resilience lowers the odds of
any imminent extra easing by Bank of Japan and, if sustained, could
persuade the government to proceed with a planned further increase in
the tax rate.

“Maintaining capital spending growth will be a key factor” in
sustaining the recovery, said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan
Macro Advisors in Tokyo. “The situation doesn’t warrant additional BOJ
easing for now.”

Consumer spending rose 2.1 percent from the previous quarter, the
highest since a 2.2 percent increase in the first three months of
1997.

The run-up in demand ahead of the tax rise was more than expected,
Economy Minister Akira Amari told reporters in Tokyo today. At the
same time, consumer confidence after the levy rise in April fell to
the lowest level since August 2011, separate data today showed,
pointing to potential challenges ahead

“Sterling will come back to fight another day,” Gavin Friend, a
foreign-exchange strategist at National Australia Bank in London, said
in a telephone interview yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/pound-bulls-unfazed-by-carney-s-tone-say-rally-isn-t-over.html

“The dynamics of a strengthening economy place the U.K. well above its
peers and it’s likely to be the first major economy to raise interest
rates.”

BOE Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that the currency’s
appreciation reflected the strength of the U.K.’s recovery. The pound
has gained more than 10 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past 12
months, the third-best performance among 175 global currencies tracked
by Bloomberg.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3715 [The Bazooka is cocked
and The Finger is on the Trigger]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

I learnt from Lorenzo Bin Smaghi at Mr. Confuorti's conference that
the ECB's Finger is on the Trigger.

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Charles W. Calomiris Author Fragile by design @FSMilan Advantage
International Trade


thinks US Rates are going to rise much sooner and higher than the
markets have currently priced in and then certainly the dollar will
rally a lot harder than currently where the market is pricing in a
very benign scenario.

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Etihad Airways is installing a 125-square-foot, three-room suite it calls The Residence and sells as a premium cabin in its new Airbus A380 superjumbos.
International Trade


The space, which costs about $43,000 for some flights, is priced to
include two travelers and comes with a butler, chef, and shower. The
Residence will take to the skies in late December when Etihad begins
flying its first of 10 A380s from the United Arab Emirates to London.

read more




South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.82% a Fresh Record High
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3129

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1049

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +26.63% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,466.85 +159.66 +1.92%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.21% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.95% 2014 [Returns
have been crushed by a crumbling Cedi]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

The International Monetary Fund says it will delay the disbursement of
$6 million in aid to Mali pending a clarification from the government
on the purchase of a $40 million presidential jet, an IMF spokesman
said.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0O06T120140514

The controversy over the jet, and a separate loan for military
supplies, risks undermining confidence in Mali's donor-backed recovery
from twin crises in 2012. These involved the military ouster the
president and the occupation of its vast northern desert regions by al
Qaeda-linked Islamist fighters.

The IMF spokesman said the organisation questions the rationale of and
procedures that led to Mali buying the jet, given the country's
pledges to fight poverty.

The IMF has also flagged concerns about a separate 100 billion CFA
franc ($209.02 million) state guarantee issued for a loan secured by a
private company with a Malian bank to provide supplies for the army.

"Getting satisfactory information about these transactions and
reassurance that the authorities still stand behind the fiscal
stability and sound public financial management practices objectives
of their arrangement with the IMF will take time," the spokesman said.

The process will slow the first review of its post-war aid package and
a $6 million disbursement due in June will be delayed, the spokesman
added.

Mahamadou Camara, Mali's communications minister, said it was normal
for the IMF to seek clarifications, but added the government did not
appreciate the manner in which it was done.

The country's finance minister had provided explanations to IMF chief
Christine Lagarde at meetings in Washington in April, Camara told
French broadcaster RFI.

French troops scattered Islamists in an offensive last year, but the
country's recovery has been slow. The IMF slashed its estimates for
economic growth last year to 1.7 percent, down from 4.8 percent,
because of poor rainfall and a weak harvest.

The IMF agreed a $46 million financial aid package for Mali in
December to help with its balance of payments and restore economic
growth.

read more


Kagame’s Singapore of Africa Economy Rewards Debt: Africa Credit
Africa


Growth in the landlocked nation will reach 7.5 percent this year, up
from 5 percent in 2013 and versus 5.4 percent for all of sub-Saharan
Africa, the International Monetary Fund said last month. Rwanda’s
first dollar bonds, sold in April last year, returned 9.3 percent
since Dec. 31, compared with 6.6 percent for emerging-market peers,
according to Bloomberg indexes.

President Kagame, 56, who said in January he may return to markets
this year to borrow about $1 billion, is building roads and Internet
connections, tackling corruption and making it easier to start
businesses. Foreign aid has resumed after some donors withheld funds
in 2012 following allegations by the United Nations, denied by the
government, that the country was backing rebels in neighboring
Democratic Republic of Congo. Germany pledged 18 million euros ($25
million) in November.

“Rwanda is a sound macroeconomic story and that is why the bond has
done so well,” Rune Hejrskov, who helps oversee $1.4 billion in
emerging-market debt at Jyske Bank A/S, including the nation’s bonds,
said by phone from Silkeborg, Denmark, May 13. Progress includes
“government reforms, a reduction in crime, improving infrastructure,”
he said. “In house, we call it the Singapore of Africa.”

read more




THEY'RE ALL COMING HERE CHAPTER 1
Africa


They’re all coming here. Maybe not now, maybe not next year, but they
are coming. Halliburton, Monsanto, Nike, Samsung. They’re all coming.”

Our driver’s name is Edward. He’s in his mid 30s, white, and born in
Kenya, with rosy cheeks and blond, curly hair. His English accent is
the kind that some might call archaic. Others might say it’s colonial.

Hours earlier, Edward told me that he’d finally found a pilot who had
agreed to fly our motley crew into war-torn South Sudan, specifically
the volatile rebel-held region. South Sudan is Africa’s—and the
world’s—newest sovereign nation. It was granted independence on July
9, 2011, following a referendum that passed with more than 98 percent
of the vote.

Weeks before our arrival, the government had imploded after a series
of events that resulted in deep schisms within the administration,
perhaps most critically the ousting of former vice president and
current rebel leader Riek Machar at the behest of President Salva
Kiir. Current reports have Machar running for his life, hiding
somewhere deep in the bush. I was determined to find him and was
fairly sure I could—if only we could charter a goddamn plane and find
a pilot with the nerve to fly in.

Edward is telling me what he would do if he had a million dollars to
“invest in Africa.” All the while we’re driving at breakneck speed on
a dark Nairobi highway, with our low beams barely revealing the road
ahead or anything that could be obstructing it.

Accompanying me is Machot Lat Thiep, a Lost Boy and former child
soldier and now a manager of a Costco in Seattle, who insists he wants
to “save his country.” The third member of our party is photographer
and filmmaker Tim Freccia, an old hand at covering Africa. Persuading
these two to come along was easy.

Uganda has made it a crime to "wilfully and intentionally" transmit
the HIV virus and made it legal for medical staff to disclose a
patient’s HIV status to others without his or her consent.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0DU1G120140514

read more


Kenya extends payment on $600m loan as eurobond is delayed again @FT @JavierBlas2
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is extending a $600m syndicated loan due for repayment on
Thursday by three months, following an eleventh-hour agreement after
weeks of prevarication.

A Treasury official said negotiations with the three international
banks underwriting the loan – Citigroup, Standard Bank and Standard
Chartered – were concluded only on Tuesday, two days before the
repayment date.

Kenya had hoped to repay the 2012 loan with some of the $2bn it
expects to raise in its much-delayed first sovereign bond, which was
most recently due in the first quarter of this year but whose issuance
has again been pushed back by administrative and legal obstacles.

A person familiar with the matter said that although most of the
dozens of lenders within the syndicate were happy to extend the loan
on existing terms, some nevertheless still requested repayment on May
15 as originally promised. “Less than a third” of the total loan,
equivalent to less than $200m, will be paid out on Thursday, according
to the person, and by the underwriters rather than by the Kenyan
government.

“The majority of lenders have said ‘yes’ [to the extension] because
it’s a good asset… The others will be paid off tomorrow,” said the
person. “It’s a very good story for Kenya that the underwriters are
happy to step up and say ‘we’re happy to pay back anybody who doesn’t
want to extend’ – usually for African countries lenders are dragooned
kicking and screaming into some sort of restructured loan but that’s
not the case here. The Kenyan government is saying we have in our back
pocket the ability to pay back all the loan in one shot but for a
whole variety of reason it makes sense to extend this by three
months.”

Kenya had initially considered repaying the entire loan on time as a
symbol of its creditworthiness, which would be especially useful given
it is preparing to go to the international markets to issue its first
eurobond, but ultimately backed a decision to extend repayment until
August 15.

Kenya recently had its B+ credit rating reconfirmed by Standard &
Poor’s. The country has delayed issuing its eurobond because of unpaid
debts in Europe, which would limit its creditworthiness. Kenya’s
parliament has so far denied the government permission to make a $16m
payment to settle a claim from a company that won a European court
order instructing the government to pay debts owed to it. The company
is one of 18 caught up in the decade-old Anglo Leasing corruption
scandal, in which security tenders were awarded to several phantom
companies. Parliament is next due to sit on June 3.

Conclusions


Clearly more political work has to be done in Parliament.

“According to GlobalData, block 10BB/13T alone could generate
approximately $10 billion in revenue over a 30-year production period,
based on regional geological characteristics and well test resul
ts,”
said the consultant in a statement released on Wednesday.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Consultancy-values-Kenya-s-proven-oil-reserve-at-Sh870bn/-/539552/2314706/-/shqsjvz/-/index.html

GlobalData added revenues from the blocks would translate to GDP
growing by an extra 0.83 percentage points annually

Conclusions


Its a Game changer.

FDI flows may climb to $1 billion in the year through June from about
$400 million a year earlier, Industrialization Secretary Adan Mohamed
said yesterday in an interview in the capital, Nairobi.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-14/kenya-targets-more-than-doubling-foreign-investment-this-year

“We expect private funding for power generation to dramatically
increase FDI flows,” he said.

Kenya will target the same amount of investment in the fiscal year
starting July 1, according to a presentation e-mailed by Mohamed’s
office.

Kenya’s FDI flows represented 1 percent of gross domestic product in
2011, compared with 4.6 percent and 5.3 percent in neighboring
Tanzania and Uganda respectively, the information shows.

STORY: China Pledges Major Stimulus Projects, Invites Private and
Foreign Investors
Kenya’s Energy Ministry is in the process of procuring contractors for
the development of a 960-megawatt coal-fired electricity plant and a
700-megawatt natural gas-powered facility. The two projects are part
of a plan by the government to increase generation fourfold to 7,200
megawatts at an estimated cost of $15 billion by 2017.

The government expects to attract 9.5 billion shillings ($109 million)
of investment as it sells mainly agriculture-based companies to
private investors, according to the statement.

“We are finalizing the process of getting an investor for Pan African
Paper Mills,” Mohamed said. “The process of selling sugar factories is
already going on.”

Bata Shoe Company is set to open its largest retail store in Africa on
Muindi Mbingu Street in Nairobi

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/-/539550/2314826/-/w0a7u1z/-/index.html

Bata Kenya is a unit of family-owned Bata Shoes based in Switzerland,
a global footwear and fashion accessory manufacturer which also has a
presence in Europe and Latin America.

Of Bata’s 133 stores in Kenya, 25 are franchises rented out to
investors while 63 are fully owned by the company. They also manage 45
stores on behalf of their owners in profit-split agreements.

Regionally, Bata has stores in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and
South Sudan while it is has presence in countries like Malawi, Ghana,
Namibia as well as South, Africa among others.

Kenya’s antitrust authority may force Lafarge SA (LG) to sell some of
its interests in the East African country if the cement maker is found
to be flouting domestic competition rules, the head of the agency
said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-15/lafarge-may-face-censure-in-kenya-after-antitrust-agency-probe.html

The Competition Authority of Kenya is probing Lafarge’s influence on
Kenya’s cement industry through its 59 percent stake in Bamburi Cement
Co. and 42 percent shareholding in East Africa Portland Cement Co., or
EAPCC. The findings will be published next month, Director-General
Francis Kariuki said in an interview on May 9.

“The current arrangement between Lafarge and EAPCC from the face value
of it may be deemed to be an unwarranted concentration of economic
power because of the close directorship Lafarge is having in EAPCC and
Bamburi,” he said. Didier Treasarrieu, Lafarge’s representative on
EAPCC’s board, declined to comment when contacted on May 12 and said
he may respond to questions today.

The authority is investigating pricing in the Kenyan cement industry
amid a dispute between shareholders and the government over ownership
of EAPCC, the country’s third-biggest producer by market value.
Kenya’s Treasury holds a 25 percent stake in the company, while the
state-owned National Social Security Fund has 27 percent.

The government wants Lafarge to dilute its shareholding in EAPCC
because no company should hold a “monopolistic stake” in Kenyan
industries, Industrialization and Enterprise Development Permanent
Secretary Wilson Songa said Feb. 12.

Conclusions


the Word on the Street is that EAPCC is a Dangote Set Up Trade.

Dinner with Aliko Dangote Twitpic [And with Thanks to the Koinanges]

http://twitpic.com/4hp5fn

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.282 [Lots of
dividend payments headed overseas]

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.706% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.2845% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,940.99 -34.40 -0.69%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share turned 0.366% higher to close at 150.73.
It was a humdinger and a high octane session with Total turnover of
1.757b shillings versus 600.238m.
Internationals remain relentlessly on the Buy Side as they have been
across the Continent and especially for the Big Cap stocks.
The NSE20 edged 4.34 points higher to close at 4945.33.
Buyers stepped up for Safaricom after a very light 2.38% drawdown over
the preceding 2 sessions.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi rallied by the Daily Maximum of 10% to close at a 52 week High
of 132.00. Kakuzi is +38.947% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom which had retreated 2.38% over 2 sessions and through this
morning and since releasing its bulked up Full Year Earnings. The
Retreat was orderly and shallow and counterintuitively a Bullish
Signal. Safaricom closed unchanged at 12.60 and was trading at session
highs of 12.70 +0.79% at the finish Line, signalling the correction
was real shallow and is now effectively over. Large Bids started to
pepper the boards today and this level of 12.60 is a Floor and the
price turns higher again as early as tomorrow. There are not many
companies who can uplift their Dividend more than 50%. That Takeaway
might well have sunk into the Market's collective Intelligence now.
Safaricom traded 21.422m shares as Buyers looked for lines of stock.

Kenya Airways traded 1.99% higher to close at 12.80. Kenya Airways
will release Full Year Earnings june 4th and the price will rally into
that Release. Kenya Airways' share price has an equilibrium Level
someways over 15.00 and closer to 20.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Housing Finance followed on yesterdays 7.64% Rally with a further gain
of 8.39% to close at a Fresh 52 week High of 42.00. HFCK has rallied a
mighty 16.666% over two sessions and on healthy volume. HFCK traded
1.455m shares today.

Equity Bank eased 1.24% to close at 39.75 on very heavy volume of
11.443m shares worth 454.855m which was a Top 3 Volume Session in
2014. Equity Bank rallied 27.34% 4 weeks through the beginning of this
week and this period coincided with the announcement of their move to
avail themselves of a Virtual Mobile Operator license. Todays high
volume action was overdue after such a powerful Bull Move. Equity Bank
is +29.268% in 2014.

Co-op Bank this morning announced 1Q14 results posting  a 5.6% y/y
decline in net income to KES 2.5bn, with the year on year earnings
decline  arising from the expiry of the bank's five year listing tax
benefit which saw the tax rate increase to 30.0% from 20.0%. If you
strip that out, Co-op Bank results remain robust. Co-op Bank retreated
4.26% to close at 22.75 and traded 1.412m shares worth 32.095. Co-op
had 2 Sellers for every Buyer and todays Price action probably
constitutes an overeaction to the Headline Earning release. Co-op Bank
is +28.16% in 2014.

Centum firmed 2.56% to close at 40.00. Centum is +21.21% in 2014 and
that follows a blistering triple digit percentage gain in 2013.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased 0.33% to close at 300.00 and traded 934,000 shares worth
280.317m. EABL is +35.71% in a violent Rally since closing at a 52
week Low in February when all the weak Longs got flushed out. EABL is
now +3.44% in 2014 and the price is close to equilibrium. Some
Investors are also betting on some remission for Senator which was
originally designed as a Product for the mass market. Senator volumes
crashed after the Government lifted a Tax remission and recent news
around deaths from Illicits makes the argument compellingly that
Senator served a social good which was not considered at the moment
when the Government cancelled the Tax incentive.

KenolKobil traded its highest volume session in 2014 and eased 1.162%
to close at 8.50 with 19.492m shares representing 1.32% of the shares
of the company, which is evidently a material trading session.
KenolKobil was trading close to session Highs at 8.90 +3.49% at the
Finish. KenolKobil reported a FY PAT of 558.149m having reported a FY
Loss of 6.284b in 2012. Previously, Puma Energy had been a suitor and
I am sure a Suitor might well re surface.
Total Kenya traded 4% higher to close at 26.00 and traded 17,700 shares.

The Business Daily carried a story today that ''Kenya's antitrust
authority may force Lafarge SA (LG) to sell some of its interests in
the East African country if the cement maker is found to be flouting
domestic competition rules.''

Lafarge has a 59 percent stake in Bamburi Cement Co. and a 42 percent
shareholding in East Africa Portland Cement Co. The Name on the Street
is Aliko Dangote and Target spoken of is EAPCC.

Bamburi Cement eased 1.14% to close at 173.00 and traded 509,100
shares. Bamburi Cement has been soft in 2014 and has declined 17.61%
Year to date.
EAPCC traded 2,700 shares and all at 92.50 -1.07%. EAPCC is +34.05% in
2014 as Investors anticipate the counter being put into play.
Athi River [where Lafarge exited their stake a while back at a more
than 10x return] eased 50cents to close at 83.50 and traded a
meaningful 802,800 shares. The Price has real strong support here.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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