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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 19th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank @CNBCAfrica for today's Interview

Mr. Ahmed @National_Bank CEO was a splendid Guest. We are in the Edit
suite and will post the session later this week

read more



19-MAY-2014 :: The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber
Africa


Safaricom chief executive Bob Collymore who has proven to be such an
outstanding wealth creator for his shareholders and whose more than 50
per cent year on year dividend increase [which remains the loudest
signal in the earnings release] is surely reso- nating around the
world, has a dash-board that sits on his personal computer. At the
first level, it has a colour scheme where green is good and red is
bad. You can drill into what is driving the dash-board. It is a real
time computer algorithm.

Now put yourself in front of that dash-board and lets start reading
it. Ambassador Robert Godec said additional police are already
patrolling around the embassy and that more assets will arrive from
Washington next week.

"Unfortunately, the security situation in Kenya, especially in Nairobi
and Mombasa, continues to worsen. Since the tragic events of Westgate
in September 2013, the number of attacks, threats, and warnings is
deeply concerning," Godec's letter said [source @jstraziuso AP]. The
dash-board is telling us that the frequency and the intensity of
attacks is spiking. Subsequent to that letter, twin improvised
explosive devices exploded in Gikomba, Nairobi killing 10 people and
wounding more than 70.

Nairobi is the largest US diplomatic facility in East Africa and the
embassy has about 1,300 employees or more inside it on any given day.
Godec said he is reducing the embassy's "overall footprint" in Kenya
by reducing the number of Americans stationed in Nairobi. If Nairobi
represents close to 50 per cent of Kenya's GDP, then the
Muthaiga/Gigiri economy surely represents
up to a quarter of that 50 per cent.

The Muthaiga/Gigiri economy is flashing red on the dash- board.

One of my friends from Mombasa called me Thursday and told me ''They
are evacuat- ing my guests.''

Tourism is one of the pillars [more than a $1b Pillar] of our economy.
I will recall the President who described Tourism as ''being on its
knees.'' It's capitulated now. Mombasa was already a tinderbox and a
full blown recession is lighting a match next to that tinderbox.

Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;

''When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what's left is
terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic
poem, the bedtime story."

I embraced social media in 2009. And it has become quite a passion and
even a business now. We scan the real time and measure, sometimes try
and shape but we are measuring responses to brands across the
continent.

There is an enormous conversation and hullabaloo going on and we
search this for signals. And the signal is very loud and clear and
unanimous. We are being spun ''an epic poem, the bedtime story.''
Disbelief can be suspended, of course but eventually we reach a Marx
Brothers in duck soup moment.

''Well, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?''

And if you mine social media like I do, you will know that duck soup
moment was crossed during Westgate. And continuing resolutely down
this path is eroding political capital.

"Look at the world around you. It may seem like an im- movable,
implacable place. It is not, with the slightest push - in just the
right place - it can be tipped." Malcolm Gladwell.

Everything is looking extremely fragile.

read more


Point Omega
Africa


"The true life is not reducible to words spoken or written, not by
anyone, ever."
-- Don DeLillo, Point Omega

Home Thoughts

Hannah had a lovely day on Saturday, celebrating her Birthday a little
belatedly, admittedly.
http://www.twitpic.com/e46hf2

read more


"The reason for the schizophrenic quality of Chinese behavior, I suspect, has to do with what China thinks U.S. intention and strategy toward it might be," Tan said by e-mail.
Law & Politics


"China's big worry is the U.S. and its partners will block China's
access to strategic trade routes through the South China Sea.".

China said yesterday it was sending five ships to Vietnam to evacuate
its citizens, with more than 3,000 Chinese nationals leaving as of May
17.

While Vietnam has confronted China in the waters it "also realizes
that it's quite impossible to confront China in a very sustainable
way," he said. "China has become the No. 2 power."

@rhodes44 After the largest democratic election in history, US
congratulates the BJP for its victory and looks forward to working
closely with new gov

https://twitter.com/rhodes44/status/467296398938218496

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3704 The euro was little changed at $1.3705 after touching
$1.3648 on May 15, the least since Feb. 27.
Dollar Index 80.01
Japan Yen 101.42 The yen traded at 101.44 per dollar from 101.50 at
the end of last week, having gained 0.7 percent in the previous three
sessions. It touched 101.32 on May 15, the strongest since March 19
Swiss Franc 0.8915
Pound 1.6822
Aussie 0.9351
India Rupee 58.52 The rupee surged 2.1 percent last week to 58.78 per
dollar, the best performance among 78 global currencies tracked by
Bloomberg.
South Korea Won 1022.75
Brazil Real 2.2142
Egypt Pound 7.1349
South Africa Rand 10.3492

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.01

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Federal Open Market Committee last month reduced monthly bond
buying to $45 billion, down from $85 billion when the Fed started
trimming purchases in December. Yellen is scheduled to give the New
York University Commencement speech on May 21.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3704

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has signaled he may add
monetary stimulus in June because policy makers are "dissatisfied"
with the inflation outlook, in part due to an increase in the exchange
rate.

Conclusions


I extrapolated from a conversation with Bin Smaghi that Draghi is a
racing certainty to add stimulus in June.

read more



Draghi Isn't Doubted as Economists Await ECB Stimulus Measures
International Trade


Ninety percent of economists in the Bloomberg Monthly Survey predict
the European Central Bank president will ease monetary policy in June
after saying on May 8 that officials are "comfortable" with acting
then.

"Draghi clearly pre-committed," said Elwin de Groot, an economist at
Rabobank in Utrecht, the Netherlands. "As any other central banker
should know, he would risk his reputation, and a significant
strengthening of the euro, if the ECB doesn't follow through in June."

read more


Super Mario: The Euro's Saviour September 10, 2012 - 00:00 -- BY ALY KHAN SATCHU
International Trade


I have spent my life studying the linguistics of the world's central
bankers. I ran short term interest trading desks. My life was spent in
whats called the short end of the yield curve. And the biggest
impactor on interest rates is of course, the central banker. I
actually enjoy studying and parsing the semantics, the language, the
emphasis of central bankers.

You have to weigh every nuance with the same care that you might hold
a Fabergé egg. The personality of the central banker is also key. He
or she has to be compelling and never underwhelming. Last week, I was
invited to speak about Africa in Zurich at a conference hosted by the
Neue Zurcher Zeitung and Credit Suisse. The current Swiss central
banker Thomas J. Jordan, his predecessor Thomas Hildebrand, the
previous head of the Bundesbank Axel Weber amongst many European
banking worthies spoke on the first day about the Euro.

My day one takeaway was that they were complacent but later I realised
that they had evidently met Mario Draghi and what I was perceiving as
complacency was in fact a real sense of confidence that they had a
secret silver bullet and that was super Mario. Mario Draghi is a super
star in my world.

He came up with a plan which can work and he has an air about him
which is persuasive and compelling. The triple bottom line is that
this is not a fellow to bet against. The Euro rallied sharply last
week as he outlined his programme called outright monetary
transactions as those betting against the Euro ran for the hills and
covered their shorts.

"We designed a parcours, a road, and it's in the hands of the
governments" Draghi said. Draghi has effectively triangulated the
politicians and those governments that will seek help. He has
established a new Euro framework. "Governments must stand ready to
activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional
financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist
- with strict and effective conditionality," Draghi said. The ECB
reserves the right to terminate bond purchases if governments don't
fulfil their part of the bargain, he added.

He said the programme "will enable us to address severe distortions in
government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded
fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the Euro. Under
appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to
avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for
price stability in the Euro area."

What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area. Last
year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said "As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes," he answered. I do not expect a sharp rebound in the Euro
area yet but the downside, the vortex risk has been back stopped and
thats a major achievement. Mario Draghi stepped up or as Billy Ocean
once sang when the going gets tough, the tough get going and he has.

read more



Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1295.83 [price action might be presaging a
sharp break lower]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 101.73

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

A spread of food at Caviar Kaspia Photography by Nacho Alegre for
WSJ. Magazine

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304572204579501762018450316?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304572204579501762018450316.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009

THERE'S A SCENE in Anna Karenina in which Oblonsky, Anna's brother and
irrepressible man about town, bounds into his favorite Moscow
restaurant accompanied by his compatriot, the more earthbound Levin,
who is fresh from his country estate. Levin is in awe of the
"restrained radiance" that immediately takes over his friend's entire
being; he watches Oblonsky direct "the Tartar waiters," greet
acquaintances "joyously" and help himself to "a preliminary appetizer
of fish and vodka." When he finally takes a seat amid the "fuss and
bustle, the surroundings of bronzes, mirrors, gaslights," he orders a
bottle of champagne. Tolstoy may have published his novel's first
installment in 1875, but that particular scene--or one awfully close to
it--is still reenacted countless times a day (and night), six days a
week at Caviar Kaspia, the quixotically chic restaurant in Paris's
eighth arrondissement on the Place de la Madeleine.

read more


@NarendraModi 's Bharatiya Janata Party got 282 of 543 parliamentary seats in the world's biggest-ever vote, compared with 272 needed to form a government
Emerging Markets


The BJP has garnered the first single-party majority since 1984 and
that's boosting bets the new administration will pursue policies to
improve the economy without being constrained by coalition politics,
according to Deutsche Bank AG. Nomura, the second-most accurate rupee
forecaster in the last four quarters, and Aberdeen Asset see the
currency rising toward 57 per dollar by year-end, while Mirae Asset
predicts a rally to 55.

India Rupee 1 Year Chart INO 58.495 [My Objective is 57.50]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDINR&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

The exchange rate has rebounded 17 percent from a record low of 68.845
reached last year

India Bombay Sensex ^BSESN is at all time Highs @YahooFinance

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

Frontier Markets

read more


West Africa leaders vow to wage 'total war' on Boko Haram
Africa


West African leaders on Saturday agreed to work together to wage
"total war" on Boko Haram saying the Nigerian Islamist group had
become a regional al Qaeda that threatened all of them.

Nigeria's neighbors Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Benin, and Western
officials, met in Paris to flesh out a plan enabling them for the
first time to share intelligence, coordinate action and monitor
borders.

Although Boko Haram has been fighting for five years, carrying out
bombings and attacks on civilians and the security forces, the
kidnapping last month of more than 200 girls from a school in the
northeast has focused world attention on them.

"Boko Haram is no longer a local terrorist group, it is operating
clearly as an al Qaeda operation, it is an al Qaeda of West Africa,"
Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan told a news conference in Paris
following the meeting.

"We have shown our commitment for a regional approach. Without West
African countries coming together we will not be able to crush these
terrorists," he said.

"There is determination to tackle this situation head on ... to launch
a war, a total war on Boko Haram," Chad's President Idriss Deby said.

The countries agreed to launch coordinated patrols and rescue
operations, share intelligence, put in place a mechanism to prevent
weapons' smuggling and monitor borders.

Intelligence services and army heads would also meet soon to come up
with a region-wide strategy to fight terrorism.

"The threat is serious and dangerous for the region, Africa and
Europe," French President Francois Hollande said, although no concrete
operational measures were announced.

Conclusions

This comment by the leader of Nigeria's Boko Haram Islamists Abubakar
Shekau caught my attention; "We are in your city," he said, addressing
Nigeria's President Goodluck 22-APR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2104.pdf

That comment could have been made by the Al-Shebaab.

Both Boko Haram and Al-Shebaab represent a risk that David Lipton did
not touch on, that being asymmetric risks. The recent bombings in
Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm the potency of
asymmetric risks. African markets have taken these risks in their
stride. They might stumble if these asymmetric risks ratchet higher.

French President Francois Hollande (C) poses for a familly photo
with (LtoR) Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague, Niger's
President Mahamadou Issoufou, Chad's President Idriss Deby, Nigerian
President Goodluck Jonathan, Cameroon's President Paul Biya, Benin's
President Thomas Yayi Boni, European Council President Herman Van
Rompuy and U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy
Sherman during a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, May 17, 2014.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/17/us-nigerian-violence-summit-idUSBREA4G06120140517

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's #Nairobi on the 19th Floor [and asymmetric risks]

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.79% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3506

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1349 [on the slide of late]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +27.61% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,532.01 -21.42 -0.25%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.44% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

A Jihadist's Face Taunts Nigeria From the Shadows

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/19/world/africa/a-jihadists-face-taunts-nigeria-from-the-shadows.html?_r=0

Boko Haram whose leader Abubakar Shekar taunted President Goodluck
Jonathan with the comment ''I am in your city.''

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2804.pdf

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.12% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

IFC issues first Rwandan local currency bond @FT

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/05/15/ifc-issues-first-rwandan-local-currency-bond/

Investor appetite for African local currency bonds issued by foreign
institutions shows little sign of abating. On Thursday, the
International Finance Corporation (IFC) sold its first Rwandan franc
bond, raising the equivalent of $22m after receiving bids worth more
than twice that amount.

The five-year "Umuganda" bond, named after the east African country's
day of community service held once a month, was issued at a yield of
12.25 per cent and follows similar issues by the IFC in Nigeria and
Zambia last year. It is the first placement by a non-resident issuer
in Rwanda's domestic capital markets and IFC's first local currency
bond in east Africa.

The AAA-rated private sector arm of the World Bank hopes the issuance
will help deepen Rwanda's nascent bond market and give other issuers
the confidence to tap the market in the future.

"The first transaction is always the one that will send a signal that
the country is ready," Jingdong Hua, IFC's vice president and
treasurer, told beyondbrics. "To get here we have been working with
Rwandan regulators and market participants for the past two years in
terms of making sure the regulatory framework is in place, the
settlement and all the logistics are in place so that an AAA bond
issued by the IFC could be issued."

Just over 80 percent of bids were from domestic banks and pension
funds, while offshore investors accounted for the rest.

Such offerings by IFC are popular with investors because of their
rarity value. While Rwanda sold a debut $400m 10-year Eurobond last
April, the first country in east Africa to do so, its domestic bond
market, like many in sub-Saharan Africa, is small and illiquid.

At 15bn Rwandan francs, the size of the "Umuganda" bond is slightly
less than the total amount of government bonds outstanding in Rwanda -
18.5bn francs. Its corporate bond market is practically non-existent,
with only with a 1bn franc instrument outstanding. Rwanda's yield
curve extends only to five years, compared with 30 years for Kenya and
10 years for Uganda.

Hua said he hoped the Umuganda issue, coming a year after the
Eurobond, would keep the investor spotlight on Rwanda, which the
International Monetary Fund expects to grow at 7.5 per cent this year.

"Hopefully, more and more investors will pay attention to the country
while benefiting from the growth story," Hua said.

The issue will also support efforts by the Rwandan government to
revive its domestic bond market. In February, the central bank sold an
oversubscribed 12.5bn franc three-year bond at a yield of 11.625 per
cent, its first issue since 2011. The bank, which already issues
Treasury bills weekly, said it plans to issue bonds quarterly this
year.

IFC received approval for a local-currency bond programme in Rwanda in
June 2012, allowing it to issue bonds of up to 200bn Rwandan francs,
or approximately $290m. Standard Bank South Africa/CfC Stanbic Bank
and Bank of Kigali Rwanda Ltd. are lead arrangers for the programme.

Last February, the IFC issued a 12bn naira ($74m) "naija" bond in
Nigeria at a yield of 10.2 per cent and in September sold a 150m
kwacha ($23m) "Zambezi" bond in Zambia at 15 per cent. Both were
comfortably oversubscribed.

Rwanda: Spate of Enforced Disappearances HRW

http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/16/rwanda-spate-enforced-disappearances

He disputed a list of 14 names presented by Human Rights Watch saying,
"I really don't think this can be right. This is too many people." He
said: "We are next to the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo]. Some
people can leave for the DRC for days or weeks or even months and not
tell others."

Banda in tough race to remain Malawi's president

http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/109-world-top-news/172959-banda-in-tough-race-to-remain-malawis-president.html

"We have never really had elections that are this close, that are
really hard to call," said Boniface Dulani, Afrobarometer coordinator
in Malawi.

African Development Bank Steps Up Funding as China Boosts Role

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-18/african-development-bank-steps-up-funding-as-china-boosts-role.html

The African Development Bank is stepping up plans to finance power and
rail projects as China boosts lending on the continent by half.

The Tunis-based lender is set to endorse this week the Africa50 Fund,
which is targeting $10 billion of equity from an initial capital of $3
billion, to finance infrastructure projects. Central bank governors
and finance ministers across the continent will meet from today at the
bank's annual conference in Rwanda's capital, Kigali, to back the
plan.

African nations have a funding shortfall of $50 billion a year to ease
energy shortages and transport bottlenecks, according to the World
Bank. The AfDB's spending on the continent is dwarfed by China, which
invested more than $13 billion in infrastructure in 2012, as the
world's second-largest economy boosts its reliance on Africa's oil,
coal and other commodities.

"The AfDB is investing significantly into African infrastructure," Joe
Cosma, head of government and infrastructure at Ernst & Young in
Johannesburg, said by phone. "They are investing a lot of time in
working out how they can work with African governments to define
infrastructure requirements and investment options. In a sense, they
are competing with the Chinese."

The AfDB approved funding of $9 billion in 2011, with infrastructure
projects accounting for $3.4 billion of that, according to the lender.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on a visit to Africa this month that
the government will boost its line of credit to African nations by $10
billion to $30 billion. He also pledged to almost double capital in
the China-Africa Development Fund, which gives financing to Chinese
companies for private equity deals, to $5 billion.

Sub-Saharan Africa, a region of 48 countries with a combined
population of 800 million, generates the same amount of electricity as
Spain, which has a population of 45 million, according to the World
Bank. Only a third of Africans living in rural areas are within 2
kilometers (1.2 miles) of an all-season road, compared with two-thirds
of the population in other developing regions.

"Chinese investors provide both funding and technical expertise, a
full implementation package, which African governments find
attractive," Cosma said. "The AfDB is much more connected to the
African governments and they can use this relationship to their
advantage."

The AfDB's fund will help complement China's investment in Africa
given the scale of the infrastructure shortfall in the region, said
Alastair Herbertson, an investment specialist at Investec Asset
Management.

"The actual quantum of the infrastructure investment deficit is so
great that all of this goes together," Herbertson said by phone from
Cape Town on May 15. "It's never going to displace the Chinese
investment."

The AfDB, which is marking its 50th anniversary this year, will focus
its funding on large-scale projects, mainly in energy and transport,
in all 54 countries across the continent, Neside Tas Anvaripour, who
heads Africa50 fund, said in an e-mailed response to questions on May
15.

Given the scale of Africa's financing needs, the Africa50 fund is too
small to bridge the funding gap and more businesses need to be
encouraged to invest in infrastructure, said Aurelien Mali, vice
president and senior analyst at Moody's Investors Service. This will
require reforms in industries such as electricity because the
regulated price for energy in many countries doesn't cover the cost of
producing it, he said.

"Until it's done, the investment is not going to happen," Mali said.
"It's one of the first rules: you don't invest in something if you are
not going to have a return, or if it's a loss-making situation."

read more


US EMBASSY IN KENYA REQUESTS SECURITY UPGRADE @AP @Jstrasiuzo
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) -- The U.S. ambassador in Kenya has requested
additional Kenyan and American security personnel and is reducing the
size of the embassy staff because of an increase in terrorist threats
in Kenya, according to a letter sent to embassy employees Friday.

Ambassador Robert Godec said additional police are already patrolling
around the embassy and that more assets will arrive from Washington
next week.

The embassy warned Americans this week that it was taking new security
steps because of recent threat information. Militants from al-Shabab,
an al-Qaida-linked group in Somalia, are blamed for an increasing
number of attacks in Kenya.

Al-Qaida bombed the U.S. Embassy in Kenya in 1998, killing more than 200 people.


"Unfortunately, the security situation in Kenya, especially in Nairobi
and Mombasa, continues to worsen. Since the tragic events of Westgate
in September 2013, the number of attacks, threats, and warnings is
deeply concerning," Godec said, referring to the assault on Westgate
Mall by four al-Shabab gunmen that killed at least 67 people.

Since the Westgate attack, there have been 12 explosions in Nairobi
killing more than 20 people, Godec's letter said. Twin improvised
explosive devices exploded in a market area of Nairobi on Friday,
killing 10 people and wounding more than 70.

The U.S. Embassy in Nairobi, which was relocated after the 1998
attack, sits far off the road and is surrounded by thick walls. Armed
Marines have recently begun patrolling the grounds wearing
bullet-proof vests and helmets. The frequency of emergency drills that
tell embassy personnel to "duck and cover" have also increased.

The largest U.S. diplomatic facility in East Africa, the embassy has
about 1,300 employees or more inside it on any given day. Godec said
he is reducing the embassy's "overall footprint" in Kenya by reducing
the number of Americans stationed in Nairobi.

"If the Americans decide to make a structural adjustment rather than a
temporary relocation of staff, then other countries are certain to
follow. It shows they know something and haven't been reassured by the
Kenyan authorities," a European diplomat, who asked not to be named,
told AFP.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/17/kenya-nairobi-bomb-us-embassy-security

Security forces secure the scene at the site where two blasts
detonated, one in a mini-van used for public transportation, in a
market area of Nairobi. Picture: AP Source: AP

http://www.news.com.au/world/at-least-ten-dead-70-injured-as-explosions-hit-market-and-bus-in-nairobi-comes-after-uk-tourists-evacuated-over-terror-threat/story-fndir2ev-1226920820583

read more


"A former US President once said 'you are either with us or against us.' But when we are hit, they say 'ni shauri yetu' (you are on your own)," said President @UKenyatta
Kenyan Economy


"Kenya hii ni yetu na tutaijenga. ...wachukue watu wao lakini utalii
utaendelea, tutatafuta nchi zingine, tutapigana na ugaidi, na
hatutakubali vitisho" (Kenya is our country and we will develop it.
Even if they take their tourists, we will look for others. We will
fight terrorists and we will not be cowed," added the President.

read more


Kenya president says expects Eurobond issue by end-June
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI May 16 (Reuters) - Kenya expects to issue its debut Eurobond
in the financial year that ends on June 30 as planned in this year's
budget, President Uhuru Kenyatta said on Friday.

"We expect the Eurobond to be issued and finalised in this particular
financial year," he told a news conference. "So we need to move with
speed given the fact that we only have to months left till the end of
the financial year."

Kenya authorizes payment of controversial security contracts

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2014-05/16/c_133339616.htm

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has authorized the Treasury to pay
16.1 million U.S. dollars controversial Anglo Leasing debt, which
officials and Kenyans believe was a corruption scandal.

In a statement issued on Thursday evening, Kenyatta said the
government's decision to settle the judgment debt is premised on
protecting Kenya's economy on account of rising interest rates
occasioned by domestic borrowing due to constrained access to
international borrowing.

He said settling the debt will also protect Kenya's reputation as a
country that meets its contractual obligations and adheres to the rule
of law; protecting assets abroad, and maintaining and improving the
country's credit rating currently at B+.

"The government has exhausted all judicial options to forestall
payment of the judgment debts and the way forward is for the
government to settle to minimize further loss as the outstanding
awards continue to accrue interest," Kenyatta said.

The statement however stated that by making the "painful decision" to
settle the debt, the president is not legitimizing what he and many
Kenyans believe to have been a series of fraudulent transactions.

Tourist arrivals to the country fell to 1.4 million last year from 1.7
million in 2012 in the wake of the Westgate attack.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-18/kenyan-fighter-jets-strike-militant-targets-in-southern-somalia.html

The tourism industry is the nation's second-biggest source of foreign
exchange, generating $1.1 billion in 2013.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.463

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.611% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.8385% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

CMC directors ousted in fresh board shake-up @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/CMC-directors-ousted-in-fresh-board-shake-up/-/539550/2319446/-/10e9xamz/-/index.html

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Kenya Shilling had a poor session and retreated more than 0.33% to
trade at 87.79 last  which is the Shilling's weakest level on an
intraday basis since Aug. 12.
The Stock Market traded to the downside but on relatively low volume.
Evacuations of Tourists in Mombasa coupled with a Tsunami of Travel
warnings and a spike in asymmetric attacks have begun to sap
confidence.
Associated Press is reporting the US Ambassador @BobGodec as
announcing a downsizing of the ''US Footprint'' in Kenya.
Markets are oftentimes the most honest Messenger and Shilling and
Equity Market is turning defensive.
The Effects of a defensive posture can spread like ''wildfire''
through the Economy.
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.377% to close at 150.58.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index retreated 28.08 points to close at 4939.49.
Equity Turnover slowed down to 319.303m from 972.392m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Williamson Tea improved 1.838% to close at 277.00 and was trading at
285.00 +4.78% session highs at the Finish Line. Williamson Tea had
become a little oversold.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 1.17% to close at 13.00 and traded 3.512m shares.
Safaricom is +19.815% in 2014 and well supported at these levels after
a muscular Full Year Earnings Release a week ago.

Scangroup improved 2.13% to close at 48.00 and traded shares at a
session high of 49.00 +4.26%. Scangroup traded 24,600 shares and
Sellers are light below 50.00, in point of fact.

Sameer Africa retreated 4.624% to close at 8.25. Sameer remains
+60.194% in 2014, however.

Kenya Airways eased 3.225% to close at 12.40 and transacted 249,900
shares. The near term Tourism news has not been constructive.

Nation Media turned 3.726% lower to close at 310.00 and traded 15,300 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and retreated 3.205% to close at 37.75 and traded 1.474m
shares worth 56.001m. Equity Bank rallied +27.34% 4 weeks through 9th
May. Equity Bank has given back 7.239% since 9th May.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 46.75 and traded 511,400
shares. Kenya Commercial Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 9.6922 and
looks inexpensive given that Q1 2014 PAT accelerated +33.727%.
CO-OP Bank eased 1.11% to close at 22.25 and traded 633,900 shares.
Sellers outpaced Buyers by a Factor of 4 to 1 at the closing bell.

Jubilee Insurance firmed 0.9146% to close at a Fresh 2014 high of
331.00. Jubilee has lagged its Peers and is playing a little Catch-up.
Jubilee is +18.214% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power KPLC closed unchanged at 14.90 and traded 3.260m shares
worth 48.59m. KPLC is +5.3003% in 2014 and trades on a Trailing PE of
6.682.
Kengen eased 0.9% to close at 10.95 and this matched a 52 week low
previously reached in February. Kengen has retreated 19.188% in 2014
as Investors anticipate a super sized  Rights Issue call.

EABL eased 0.67% to close at 295.00 and traded 67,500 shares. EABL has
bounced 34.7% since closing at 52 week low after its last Earnings
Release. Investors are calculating that post the Illicits Debacle,
Senator might receive some remission. Senator was designed as a Drink
that would reduce the Illicit menace.

KenolKobil continued its strong rally to close +2.185% at 9.35 and
traded 920,300 shares. KenolKobil has rebounded 10% over 2 sessions.
Total Kenya firmed 0.952% to close at 26.50.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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