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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 20th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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Maputo from the Sea
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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I woke up Hannah a lot earlier this morning
Africa


And she told me that She did not love me even a little iota.

And I said 'But Hannah You are my World''

She said with some brevity 'Well You are not mine.''

Then just before I got out of the Car she says

''Do You Forgive me?''

And i thought Women! and i said.

''I forgive you everything.''

read more



Thailand's army declared martial law on Tuesday @Reuters
Law & Politics


Troops were patrolling in Bangkok, stopping some traffic from entering
the city and placing sandbags outside a city center police
headquarters, witnesses said.

Soldiers had secured television stations, one Thai army general said.

"We declared a state of emergency, it's not a coup. Because of the
situation, it's not stable, they kill each other every day," the
general, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

"We need cooperation from them to announce to the people 'do not
panic, this is not a coup'," the general said.

Weak exports and the political mayhem have damaged the economy,
prompting the state planning agency to cut its forecast for 2014
growth to between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, from a range of 3.0 to 4.0
percent.

Thailand's army declared martial law on Tuesday

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/74965000/jpg/_74965920_74965919.jpg

The Brzezinski Doctrine ("The Eurasian Balkans") is the definition of
non-linear warfare and subversive destabilization

http://www.globalresearch.ca/americas-non-linear-warfare-agenda-and-the-right-to-resist/5382799

Gene Sharp's writings have also provided pivotal tactical advice in
advancing the West's non-linear warfare strategy.

Taking the use of non-state actors even further, the West has a
history of promoting militarized proxy groups to carry out its
policies. This is most clearly seen in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq,
Libya, and Syria.

Kenneth Boulding: " 'That which is, is possible.'

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/your-democracy/2013/01/gene-sharp-machiavelli-non-violence

Ukrainian riot policemen hold the formation against "rioters" during
the exercises for mass disturbances suppression in the southern
Ukrainian city of Odessa. Photograph: Alexey Kravtsov/AFP/Getty Images

http://www.theguardian.com/news/gallery/2014/may/19/photo-highlights-of-the-day

"Part of the capacity needed by the AU is the establishment of the
African Standby Force for rapid deployment in crisis areas without
delays." @SAPresident

http://news.iafrica.com/sa/939149.html

The governments of both countries, disappointed with the results, have
reduced their level of co-operation. It is hard to see where the
president can begin Economist

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21601838-crime-terrorism-and-police-abuse-are-all-rising-together-little-law-less-order

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THE DASH-BOARD IS BLINKING AMBER
Law & Politics


Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega; ''When you strip away surfaces,
when you see into it, what's left is terror. This is the thing that
literature was meant to cure. The epic poem, the bedtime story."

read more


Al-Shabaab's New Face in Kenya? Jay Bahadur
Law & Politics


With the notable exception of Westgate, terrorism incidents in Kenya
have largely consisted of lobbed grenades and makeshift IEDs. The
perpetrators have tended to be sympathetic to al-Shabaab's ideology
but unlikely to have direct ties to the group.

But there are signs that al-Shabaab top brass are beginning to take a
more active role in Kenya, where the security climate has rapidly
deteriorated over the past year despite the East African country
receiving vast intelligence support from American, British and Israeli
spy agencies.

In a 23 April suicide attack, two militants detonated a Vehicle-Borne
Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) at a police station in the Nairobi
neighbourhood of Pangani, killing two police officers as well as the
attackers. Many believe that the station was not the intended target,
but that the bombers had been on their way to another site - perhaps a
nightclub - when they were pulled over for driving on the wrong side
of the road. The blast was atypically powerful, and it is possible
that the secondary bomber was wearing a suicide vest to augment the
main explosives contained in the vehicle's boot.

It was the second time in under two months that a sophisticated VBIED
- bearing the signs of more direct al-Shabaab involvement - had found
its way into a Kenyan police station. On 11 March, an impounded car
brought to an Anti-Terror Police Unit station in Mombasa was later
found to contain six pipe bombs attached to a mobile phone detonator,
containing enough plastic explosives to collapse a multi-storey
building.

Ikrima, the Somali-Kenyan militant suspected of organizing the
Westgate attack, and Mahad Karate - the head of Amniyaat, al-Shabaab's
intelligence and assassination unit - are believed to be working
closely together to plan further attacks in Kenya.

"Given the sophistication of what's going on in terms of VBIEDs...
clearly indicates to me that Amniyaat is now fully in change," said
Rashid Abdi, Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group.

Abdi argues that their increasing involvement is a product of
al-Shabaab dissatisfaction over the commitment level of homegrown
non-Somali Kenyan radicals, especially with respect to their
willingness to carry out suicide attacks. Abdi has identified a "new,
shadowy" Kenyan radical group made up almost exclusively of ethnic
Somalis, a group to which the Pangani suicide bombers had belonged.
Al-Shabaab, he believes, has been pressuring this network to take the
lead on the domestic terror front from other groups - such as the
Muslim Youth Centre (MYC)/ al-Hijra - which it judges insufficiently
radicalized. Indeed, the fact that the principal Pangani bomber was a
Nairobi-born university graduate, whose father had served as a surgeon
in the Kenyan Defence Forces, suggests a level of ideological
radicalization far exceeding that of the average MYC/al-Hijra cadre.

There may be other such attacks in the works. According to an analyst
source, a suicide VBIED attack in early April targeting the National
Intelligence Agency (NIS) operations centre at Nairobi's Nyati House
was disrupted only when one of the attackers failed to gain entry and
was shot dead outside the gate.

The prospect of a more centrally-planned, "hands on" approach by
al-Shabaab in Kenya is worrying, especially in light of the diverse
tactics the group has employed to create havoc in Somalia. A
proliferation of "complex attacks"- using a combination of gunmen and
suicide bombers - strikes on government buildings, and perhaps even
targeted assassinations against Kenyan politicians and security forces
officials may be in Kenya's future.

So far, the Kenyan government has had few answers to the mounting
threat, other than an indiscriminate crackdown on the Somali community
and a bizarre neighbourhood watch-type initiative.

Without a radical rethinking of counter-terrorism policy in the near
future, Kenya risks further erosion of state control and lasting
damage to its economic prospects.

read more


Russia is close to signing a decades-long contract to supply natural gas to China at a price that would value the deal at about $400 billion, according to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
Law & Politics


Medvedev's boss Vladimir Putin arrives in Shanghai today to try and
complete an agreement after more than 10 years of talks. The stumbling
block has been price, but with Putin facing trade and financial
sanctions from the U.S. and European Union after he annexed Crimea
from Ukraine, a deal is seen as probable.

"It's time we reached an agreement with the Chinese on this issue,"
Medvedev said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Moscow yesterday.
"It is very likely that there will be a contract, which means
long-term contracts."

hina, Russia's largest trading partner with $94.5 billion of business
last year, was the only country in the United Nations Security Council
not to censure Putin's actions in Ukraine.

"We expect the Sino-Russia gas deal to be finally ratified during
President Putin's visit and the pricing terms will not be too
demanding for China," said Simon Powell, head of oil and gas research
as CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong.

"We are just one digit away," Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller
said on Russian state television before flying to Beijing for a
meeting with CNPC Chairman Zhou Jiping on May 17. "There's just one
issue, which is the so-called P-zero, or basic starting price in the
formula."

Gazprom plans to build a $22 billion pipeline to China able to carry
as much as 38 billion cubic meters (1.34 trillion cubic feet) annually
after years of false starts. The company may begin supplying China in
2019 to 2020, Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in March.

That amount of gas is almost a quarter of China's current consumption
and about 10 percent of its estimated demand by 2020, said Gordon
Kwan, head of oil and gas research at Nomura International Hong Kong
Ltd.

Gazprom's average price in Europe was $380.5 per thousand cubic meters
last year. CLSA forecasts a price for Russia's gas of $9.50 to $10 per
thousand cubic feet ($335 to $350 per thousand cubic meters) delivered
to the Chinese border.

That target, worth almost $400 billion over a 30-year contract,
compares with the $10 per thousand cubic feet China pays for imports
from Turkmenistan and is substantially lower than liquefied natural
gas at about $15, Powell said.

''Better to sign a contract at a relatively low price now, than not to
sign it all," said Ekaterina Rodina, an oil and gas analyst at VTB
Bank (VTBR) in Moscow. "Especially if China agrees to provide
prepayments or loans, which Gazprom could use in pipeline construction
and field development."

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3712
Dollar Index 80.02
Japan Yen 101.54 The dollar fetched 101.53 yen from 101.50 yesterday,
when it reached 101.10, the least since Feb. 5.
Swiss Franc 0.8920
Pound 1.6818
Aussie 0.9300 Australia's dollar fell 0.3 percent to 92.99 U.S. cents
as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, after touching 92.95, the
lowest since May 6.
"What was most notable out of the minutes was that there was a little
bit more commentary around the labor market, highlighting that, while
we have seen some better jobs numbers recently, there is a lot of
spare capacity," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at
Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.
India Rupee 58.57
South Korea Won 1022.35
Brazil Real 2.2058
Egypt Pound 7.1167
South Africa Rand 10.3756

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.02
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3712
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

"We have seen that banks are accepting negative deposit rates, that
they see it as an insurance premium for an especially safe deposit,"
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said yesterday in Vienna.
"If this makes sense and is needed on a European level, it must still
be thoroughly discussed."

"ECB easing in June is becoming the consensus view," said Etsuko
Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in New
York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/euro-near-three-month-low-versus-yen-before-ecb-officials-speak.html

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.54
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Prime Minister @Abeshinzo turned to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller to try to restore a vital ingredient of his economic revolution: optimism.
International Trade


Abe met the Yale University professor in Tokyo on March 10 to discuss
how to reverse what the Japanese leader calls the "shrunken mindset"
entrenched in the country after two decades of economic stagnation.
With a public-relations team of about 100, TV appearances and use of
buzz-words like Abenomics, Abe is trying to revive a risk-taking
spirit to unlock the investment, spending and wage gains needed to
sustain his reflation plan.

"It's important to have it sound like a revolution," said Shiller,
co-author of the 2009 book "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology
Drives the Economy and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism."
"Launching animal spirits is about capturing the public spirit -- the
zeitgeist."

"A large part of Abenomics is psychology," said Yoichi Sekizawa, a
senior fellow at RIETI, a think-tank linked to Japan's trade ministry.
Abe's language on TV shows he's trying to lift the national mood by
"emotional contagion," or changing people's perceptions by blanketing
them with positive messages, Sekizawa said.

"If my mindset is negative, this will likely have an effect on the
whole country," Abe said on Fuji TV's "Waratte Iitomo" variety show in
March. "I have to be as cheerful as possible."

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1294.04 [The Price Pattern is signalling a
big break -Take your pick which way]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 102.20 [trades real expensive]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for June delivery was at $102.72 a barrel in electronic trading on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 11 cents, at 3:04 p.m. Sydney
time. The contract, which expires today, climbed 59 cents to $102.61
yesterday, the highest close since April 21.

read more



Thai Baht 1 Year Chart INO 32.501
Emerging Markets


The baht slid as much as 0.6 percent, the biggest intraday retreat in
two months, before trading 0.2 percent weaker at 32.52 per dollar. The
currency pared its loss on suspected intervention, according to Kozo
Hasegawa, a currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Frontier Markets

read more




United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report
Africa


2. Fighting started in the capital, Juba, on the evening of 15
December, initially among members of the Presidential Guard. The Sudan
People's Liberation Army (SPLA) split between forces loyal to the
Government and forces loyal to former Vice-President Riek Machar.
Fighting moved rapidly to various military installations and, by the
next morning, into civilian neighbourhoods. After forces loyal to Mr.
Machar were defeated, Government forces entered neighbourhoods
primarily populated by civilians of Nuer origin and began targeting
Nuer men. Multiple witnesses told the Human Rights Division that mixed
groups of security forces went house-to-house killing Nuer men or
taking them away. Thousands fled their homes and neighbourhoods were
left emptied and often destroyed by security forces. In one incident,
at least 300 men of Nuer origin were rounded up from the Gudele
neighbourhood and detained and then killed in a facility used by
several security forces as a joint operations centre.

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Over 3.7 million new #IDPs in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013, representing a 55 % increase from 2012
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.56% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3761
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1167
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +28.36% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,582.75 50.74 +0.59%

If the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe
votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2001.pdf

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.48% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.19% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Glencore and the Gatekeeper Global Witness
http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/library/Glencore%20and%20the%20Gatekeeper%20May%202014.pdf

How Portugal's economy is being saved by Angola 'The revenge of History'
http://www.neurope.eu/article/revenge-history'

In addition, more than 100,000 Portuguese work as immigrants in
Angola's booming construction sector.

When the crisis hit Portugal, Pedro Passos Coelho went searching for
help. He visited Angola. This was back in 2011. Eduardo dos Santos
then declared rather generously: "Angola is ready to help Portugal
face the crisis".

According to some estimates, Angola's investments in Portugal are
between EURO 10bn and EURO 15bn.

read more


Kenya economic growth projected to hit 5.7 per cent this year. @AfDB_ORG [I am a Seller]
Kenyan Economy


This is according to a yearly report released by the African
Development Bank on Monday during its annual general meeting held in
Kigali.

Carrefour is set to make an entry into Kenya by leasing space at the
upcoming Two Rivers shopping centre in Runda.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Dubai-group-signs-Runda-mall-lease/-/539550/2320532/-/t6k18xz/-/index.html

The Two Rivers project is the brain child of the Nairobi Securities
Exchange-listed investment firm Centum, which has lately raised its
stake in real estate with an eye on double-digit returns that the
sector has yielded over the past decade.

Centum CEO James Mworia said in an interview that Carrefour has booked
100,000 square feet or 16.1 per cent of the 620,000 square-feet
shopping complex expected to be complete by October next year.

"Majid Al Futtaim will be one of the tenants at our mall, bringing the
Carrefour franchise," said James Mworia, Centum's chief executive.

L'Oreal East Africa says the Nice & Lovely range of beauty products it
acquired last year from Kenyan businessman Paul Kinuthia contributed
two-thirds of its sales in the region.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/L-Oreal-reaps-from-Nice---Lovely-buy/-/539550/2320482/-/ws6cc6z/-/index.html

L'Oreal says it sold 40 million units of skincare, cosmetics, hair
care, hair colour and hair styling products last year compared to two
million products in 2012 when it only dealt with its Dark and Lovely
brands in the Kenyan market.

Managing director Patricia Ithau attributed the growth in sales to the
acquisition of Nice & Lovely, which gave the beauty firm an entry into
the mass retail market. The company declined to provide revenue
figures.

"The acquisition of Nice & Lovely helped us tap the low-end market
given its price point. This makes it a significant business for us,"
Ms Ithau said in an interview.

"It is now two thirds of the business, with Dark and Lovely
contributing a third of total revenue."

L'Oreal in April last year took over the health and beauty business of
Interconsumer Products in a deal estimated at Sh3 billion.

read more




"With the arrival of new players and growing demand, Bamburi's market share has been decreasing over time and is now in the region of 39 percent," Tresarrieu said in an interview
Kenyan Economy


 "None of the players is dominant and there is therefore no
possibility of abuse of a dominant position."

The competition authority said earlier this month it may force Lafarge
to sell some of its interest if the company is found to have a
dominant position in violation of antitrust legislation. Its
investigation comes amid a dispute between shareholders and the
government over ownership of EAPCC. Kenya's Treasury holds a 25
percent stake in the company, while the state-owned National Social
Security Fund has 27 percent.

The government wants Lafarge to dilute its shareholding in EAPCC
because no company should hold a "monopolistic stake" in Kenyan
industries, Industrialization and Enterprise Development Permanent
Secretary Wilson Songa said Feb. 12.

Suspected Somali al Shabaab militants killed at least 12 people in an
ambush in northern Kenya on Monday @Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/19/us-kenya-attacks-idUSBREA4I0R220140519

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.657
http://j.mp/5jDOot

The currency fell 0.2 percent to 87.80 per dollar by 10:46 a.m. local
time, its weakest level on an intraday basis since Aug. 12, bringing
its loss this year to 1.7 percent. The shilling is the seventh-worst
performing African currency, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/kenyan-shilling-slumps-on-fears-attacks-may-cut-tourist-arrivals.html?cmpid=yhoo

"Tourist arrivals, a key source of hard currency, have been cut by
frequent gun and grenade attacks," NIC Bank Ltd. said today in an
e-mailed research note. "Britain, the U.S. and other western
governments have warned holidaymakers against Kenya."

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +10.1939% 2014
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.25411% 2014
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Shilling was trading at a Fresh 2014 and in fact August 2013 Low
of 87.93 last. The Currency will have to hurdle a sharp slowdown in
hard currency Tourism receipts.
The Nairobi All Share eased a marginal 0.07 points to close at 150.51.
The Nairobi NSE20 traded 18.88 points lower to close at 4920.61 and
this Index is marginally below the water mark for this year.
Equity Turnover picked up speed and totalled 1.087b versus 319.303m last time.
The Banking Segment stood out as resilient today and was trading
broadly at session highs into the Closing Bell.
There were 13 Winners and 16 losers today.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi retreated 6.818% to close at 123.00 and traded 5,200 shares.
Kakuzi is +29.47% in 2014, however.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom improved +0.38% to close at 13.05 and traded 12.051m shares
worth 157.238m. Safaricom has rebounded +3.571% since 15th May and is
+20.276% in 2014.

Express traded 200 shares at 5.25 +9.38% and was the biggest single
winner at the Securities Exchange today. Express is +34.61% in 2014
and a part of what has been a general Trend of Small Cap
outperformance in 2014.

Uchumi finally snapped a quite relentless down trade in 2014 to bounce
2.26% to close at 13.60 and traded 68,100 shares. Uchumi is
egregiously oversold.

Kenya Airways eased 2.016% to close at 12.15 and traded 46,400 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Exchange today and closed unchanged at 46.75 and traded 7.467m shares
worth 349.439m and this ranked as a Top Ten Volume Session in 2014.
KCB trades on a Trailing PE of 9.6922 and looks inexpensive having
accelerated Q1 2014 PAT accelerated +33.727%.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 37.75 but turned higher during the
session and was trading at 38.50 +1.99% session highs at the closing
Bell. Equity Bank is +18.89% in 2014. Equity Bank traded 1.691m
shares.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 22.25 but turned higher during the
session and was trading at 22.75 +2.29% session highs at the Finish.
COOP Bank traded 2.584m shares.

NIC Bank firmed 1.72% to close at 59.00 and was at 60.00 +3.45% at the close.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Athi River Mining ticked 1.21% lower to close at 81.50 and traded
heavy Volume of 3.406m shares [0.6876% of its shares] worth 279.171m.
This was the highest volume session for ARM this year. ARM accelerated
FY 2013 Profit before Tax +12.00% and the share price is underpinned
by a sharp expansion in cement capacity and by a material Margin
expansion in H2 once the Clinker Facility comes on stream.

EABL eased 1.02% to close at 292.00 and traded 272,200 shares. EABL
has rallied strongly and +11.45% over the last 4 weeks.

Unga rallied 3.636% to close at 28.50 and traded 2,100 shares. There
was a 3 versus 1 Buyers versus Sellers Imbalance signalling this move
is set to gain traction. Unga is +58.333% in 2014 and a part of that
small cap outperformance about which I was referring to.

BAT traded 2,300 shares all at 600.00 +1.69%.

Sameer Africa followed up yesterdays 4.62% retreat with a further
6.06% drawdown today and closed at 7.75 with 20,800 shares traded.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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