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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 21st of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I am looking forward to being a Moderator and at the Republic of
Mozambique and IMF #Africarising conference in Maputo #IMFNews
http://www.africa-rising.org/conference-agenda/

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I am finishing Brighton Rock

“People change,' she said
'Oh, no they don't. Look at me. I've never changed. It's like those
sticks of rock: bite it all the way down, you'll still read Brighton.
That's human nature.”
― Graham Greene, Brighton Rock

“He was like a child with haemophilia: every contact drew blood.”
― Graham Greene, Brighton Rock

“There are no passengers on spaceship earth. We are all crew.”
― Marshall McLuhan

“We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards
into the future.”
― Marshall McLuhan

“Our permanent address is tommorrow.”
― Marshall McLuhan

Marshall McLuhan
http://www.alienated.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/mcluhan_gaz.jpg

 “Untitled (composite print),” 1973. Courtesy Trustees of Princeton
University/The J. Paul Getty Museum.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/photobooth/2014/05/minor-whites-manifestations.html#slide_ss_0=9

read more





Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on Wednesday that China is committed to peacefully resolving disputes over territory, and warned other countries that strengthening military alliances against a third party will not benefit security.
Law & Politics


Xi made the remarks at a speech in Shanghai.

Chinese President Xi Jinping gives a speech during a gala dinner
ahead of the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building
Measures in Asia (CICA) summit, in Shanghai May 20, 2014.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/us-china-xi-idUSBREA4K02V20140521

“The relationship is clearly tipping in the direction of greater
strategic competition, greater friction,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China
expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. “It’s strained, there’s no doubt about it.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/spying-fuels-u-s-sino-friction-year-after-obama-xi-talks.html

Conclusions


The President and the National Security Establishment clearly feel
they can pivot in 2 directions simultaneously, which I feel is not
that wise.

Russia Fails to Sign China Gas Deal at Shanghai Meeting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/russian-chinese-leaders-silent-on-gas-deal-in-shanghai.html

“It shows that Russia is not willing to cut a low-price deal just to
make a political point with the west,” said Chris Weafer, founder at
Macro Advisory in Moscow. “The danger is if a deal is not concluded
this year China may switch its efforts to secure pipeline gas
elsewhere.”

The two countries are working out pricing, and an agreement could be
reached at any time, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said after
yesterday’s meeting.

read more



Russia-China ties at highest level in history – Putin
Law & Politics


Now Russia-China cooperation is advancing to a new stage of
comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. It would not be
wrong to say that it has reached the highest level in all its
centuries-long history.

In 2013, the volume of bilateral trade was close to $90 billion, which
is far from being the limit. We will try to increase trade turnover to
$100 billion by 2015 and up to $200 billion by 2020.

read more




What is Operation New Normal? Nick Turse
Law & Politics


It’s a question without an answer, a riddle the U.S. military refuses
to solve. It’s a secret operation in Africa that no one knows anything
about. Except that someone does. His name is Lieutenant Colonel Robert
E. Lee Magee. He lives and breathes Operation New Normal. But he
doesn’t want to breath paint fumes or talk to me, so you can’t know
anything about it.

Washington has, however, visibly “pivoted” to Africa and, in recent
weeks, many news organizations, especiallythose devoted to the
military, have begun waking up to the new normal there.

While daily U.S. troop strength continent-wide hovers in the
relatively modest range of 5,000 to 8,000 personnel, an
under-the-radar expansion has been constant, with the U.S. military
now conducting operations alongside almost every African military in
almost every African country and averaging more than a mission a day.

The East Africa Response Force (EARF), operating from the lone avowed
American base in Africa — Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti — is another new
quick-reaction unit.  When asked about EARF, Benson said, “The growing
complexity of the security environment demonstrated the need for us to
have a [Department of Defense]-positioned response force that could
respond to crises in the African region.”

A batch of official Army Africa documents obtained by TomDispatch
convinced me that EARF was intimately connected with Operation New
Normal.  A July 2013 briefing slide, for instance, references “East
Africa Response Force/New Normal,” while another concerning operations
on that continent mentions “New Normal Reaction Force East.”  At the
same time, the phrase “new normal” has been increasingly on the lips
of the men running America’s African ops.

Jason Hyland, a 30-year State Department veteran who serves as Foreign
Policy Advisor to Brigadier General Wayne Grigsby, the commander of
Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA), for instance,
told an interviewer that the task force “is at the forefront in this
region in implementing U.S. policy on the ‘new normal’ to protect our
missions when there are uncertain conditions.”

A news release from CJTF-HOA concerning the Juba operation also used
the phrase: “While the East Africa Response Force was providing
security for the embassy, additional forces were required to continue
the evacuation mission. Under the auspices of ‘the new normal,’ which
refers to the heightened threat U.S. Embassies face throughout the
world, the SP-MAGTF CR arrived from Morón, Spain,” wrote Technical
Sergeant Jasmine Reif.

Earlier this year in Seapower magazine, the commander of
Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response, Colonel
Scott Benedict,described the “new normal” as a world filled with “a
lot of rapidly moving crises,” requiring military interventions and
likened it to the Marine Corps deployments in the so-called Banana
Wars in Central America and the Caribbean in the early twentieth
century.

The Benghazi killings, unrest in South Sudan, and now the Boko Haram
kidnappings have provided the U.S. with ways to bring a long-running
“light footprint in Africa” narrative into line with a far heavier
reality.  Each crisis has provided the U.S. with further justification
for publicizing a steady expansion on that continent that’s been
underway but under wraps for years.  New forces, new battlefields, and
a new openness about a new “war,” to quote one of the men waging it.
That’s the real new normal for the U.S. military in Africa — and you
don’t need to talk to Lieutenant Colonel Lee Magee to know it.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3702 The Trigger gets pulled in June
Dollar Index 80.03
Japan Yen 101.16 Dollar lowest since February 5
Swiss Franc 0.8915
Pound 1.6836
Aussie 0.9234 touched $0.9216, its lowest since May 2.
India Rupee 58.855
South Korea Won 1027.85
Brazil Real 2.2158
Egypt Pound 7.1167
South Africa Rand 10.4556

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.03

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3702

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.16

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


CDS Lowest Since Lehman Show Economy Comes of Age: Poland Credit
International Trade


Investors are paying the least to insure Polish debt since Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed 5 1/2 years ago as economic growth
accelerates and the nation plays a leading role in responding to the
crisis in Ukraine.

The cost of five-year credit-default swaps, which protect a bondholder
should the borrower renege, slid to 62 basis points at 10:52 a.m. in
Warsaw, the least since September 2008, the month Lehman declared
bankruptcy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A report last
week showed the economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the
first quarter even as the conflict in neighboring Ukraine heightened
regional tensions.

“Poland’s economic fundamentals are improving and it’s clear investors
differentiate it from other countries in the region,” Jacek
Wieclawski, a fixed-income and derivatives trader at Rabobank
International in London, said by e-mail yesterday. “Politically,
Poland has grown through its decisive and effective policy toward
Ukraine. It has become a partner to western European nations.”

With Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s proposal to build a Europe-wide
energy union to break Russia’s grip over gas supplies and calls for
solidarity toward Ukraine, the country has taken center stage in
European Union diplomacy for the first time since joining the bloc a
decade ago. Poland has become “something of a sweet spot in terms of
political risks, and macro trends and prospects,” Tim Ash, an
emerging-market strategist at Standard Bank Plc, wrote in a note on
May 16.

The cost of Polish CDS is four basis points above South Korea’s, rated
two levels higher at Moody’s Investors Service, and three basis points
lower than neighboring euro-member Slovakia, the data show. The extra
yield on Poland’s dollar bonds over Treasuries fell one basis point to
100 basis points, after reaching an five-year low last week, JPMorgan
Chase & Co. indexes show.

Poland’s gross domestic product expanded 3.3 percent in the first
three months of 2014 from the same period last year, accelerating for
the fourth quarter running, the statistics office said May 15, a day
after reporting inflation slowed to 0.3 percent in April. An overhaul
of pensions this year reduced public debt relative to GDP as country
pushes ahead with fully funding this year’s borrowing needs by the end
of July.

Tusk is showing “strong leadership” and Poland has played a “central
role” responding to the conflict in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said May 8.

“Poland’s recent initiatives to resolve the Ukraine crisis has won it
friends and a place in the EU premier league of decision-making
countries,” Standard Bank’s Ash said.

read more



And I for one am sure that Africa can collaborate with Poland, particularly via its thriving manufacturing sector. GO AFRICA 12-MAY-2014
International Trade


I learnt that Poland represents one per cent of the world’s GDP output
and a back-of-the-hand calculation confirmed Po- land’s GDP of over
€500 billion (Sh60.29 trillion) represents more than a third of
Africa’s total GDP. Poland is seeking to enter Africa with some vigour
via its ‘Go Africa’ programme. And I for one am sure that Africa can
collaborate with Poland, particularly via its thriving manufacturing
sector. The big challenge for Africa is jobs, which will surely be
created in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, where Poland is
preeminent.

read more



Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1295.30 [The Price Range has been narrowing
and narrowing]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Gold has risen 7.7 percent this year

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 102.96 [trades very expensive]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for June delivery was at $102.56 a barrel in electronic trading on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 5 cents, at 1:33 p.m. London
time. The contract, which expires today, climbed 59 cents to $102.61
yesterday, the highest close since April 21.

Libya is pumping 210,000 barrels a day, Mohamed Elharari, a spokesman
for the National Oil Corp., said today. That’s down more than 80
percent from a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Copper 1 Year Chart [A Trading Sell]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_HG.N14.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Modi Shows Emotion as He Becomes India’s Prime Minister
Emerging Markets


Narendra Modi fought back tears during a speech accepting his party’s
nomination to become India’s next leader, a display of emotion that
contrasted with his predecessor who had limited interaction with the
public during a decade in office.

“Modi is talking and connecting with the people,” said S.
Chandrasekharan, director of the New Delhi-based South Asia Analysis
Group, adding that his style is a “total contrast” to outgoing Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh. “The previous prime minister never talked.
There was a joke going around that he only opened his mouth for the
dentist.”

Subdued economic growth and Asia’s second-fastest inflation have
eroded the purchasing power of more than 800 million Indians who live
on less than $2 per day, according to the World Bank. The BJP-led bloc
won 336 of the 543 seats up for grabs, with the party alone winning
282.

“The government should think of the poor, hear them and live for
them,” Modi, the son of a tea seller, told BJP lawmakers yesterday in
New Delhi. “The new government is dedicated to the poor of this
country, to the country’s youth and for the respect of our mothers or
sisters. It’s for the farmers, villagers, poor and the lower castes.
It’s to fulfill their dreams and aspirations.”

“Can you imagine any other Indian prime minister standing on the
footboard of the car and trying to pump flesh?,” Bhaskar said. “When
did you last see anyone doing that?”

@NarendraModi Shoe In

http://shahernama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/MODI.jpg

read more





The New Frontier: Economies on the Rise
Frontier Markets


Many frontier countries are growing at a fast pace, in most cases
helped by sustained efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability, and by
building business-friendly institutions ( Chart 1). -

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/05/the-new-frontier-economies-on-the-rise/?utm_source=contactology&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EconoMonitor%20Highlights%3A%20The%20China%20Syndrome

read more


Africa Economic Outlook 2014 from the AfDB
Africa


Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa was 5% in 2013 and is projected to be
5.8% in 2014. Excluding South Africa, the figures are 6.1% and 6.8%,
respectively. East and West Africa recorded the fastest growth in
2013, above 6%. Furthermore, growth in low-income countries, at more
than 6%, exceeded that of upper-middle-income countries in North and
Southern Africa at below 3%. Africa’s medium-term growth prospects
look good. Africa ́s average growth is projected to accelerate to
close to 5% in 2014 and 5%-6% in 2015, thus to levels last seen before
the onset of the 2009 global recession.

Official statistics put Africa’s GDP at about $1.5tn. But Mthuli
Ncube, chief economist at the African Development Bank (AfDB), told
delegates at the bank’s annual meeting that in reality the figure is a
third larger: $2trn, “if not higher”. @FT

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/05/19/afdb-says-africas-gdp-is-a-third-larger-than-thought/

Official statistics put Africa’s GDP at about $1.5tn. But Mthuli
Ncube, chief economist at the African Development Bank (AfDB), told
delegates at the bank’s annual meeting that in reality the figure is a
third larger: $2trn, “if not higher”.

The reason? African countries are revising their economic statistics,
measuring for the first time in decades booming sectors such as
banking and telecommunications. When earlier this year Nigeria updated
its statistics, it nearly doubled its GDP estimate. Ghana found its
GDP to be 60 per cent larger than thought in a similar update in 2010.

Ncube says many other African countries, including regional
heavyweights such as Kenya, have yet to rebase their GDP, leaving
plenty of room for much higher figures.

“Rebasing is producing [on average] a 30 per cent increase,” he said
at the meeting in Kigali, Rwanda. “From the work we are doing in
rebasing [the GDP], we think the final figure [for Africa’s economic
size] will be closer to $2tn, if not higher,” he said.

Although upward revisions of the size of Africa’s GDP will not put
more money in the pockets of consumers, it could well have a
“feelgood” effect on perceptions about the region. With Africa firmly
on the radar of multinational companies and global institutional
investors, upward revisions could lure considerable inflows of
capital.

Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix, a frontier markets
specialist in London, said the revision would have a positive impact
in the psychology of foreign investors. “If countries are bigger,
investors are more likely to look at them”.

According to the AfDB, only ten African countries out of 54 meet the
international standard of using a base year in their GDP calculations
that was five or fewer years ago. Another group of 19 countries use a
base year that is at least a decade old and seven countries –
including heavyweights such as Sudan – use base years that are more
than 20 years old. Worse, commodities-rich Democratic Republic of
Congo and Equatorial Guinea use base years from the 1980s.

One method of measuring GDP is to multiply the quantity of all goods
and services purchased in a given year by their prices in the base
year. Thus, if prices have risen sharply over the past decade, then
using a base year from a decade ago will significantly understate the
value created, and thus the GDP.

The reality check inherent in rebasing can be huge. When Guinea-Bissau
and The Gambia, two tiny west African nations, recalculated the size
of their GDP a few years ago, they discovered their economies were
more than double the size of what had been reported.

But African officials are not rushing for the champagne. True, the
continent’s GDP may be much higher than currently estimated. But the
re-calculation will show some of the problems blighting the region, in
particular growing income inequality. Africa may be richer, but so far
only a minority is benefiting from the wealth.

And higher GDP figures will also highlight other problems, such as a
lower tax base compared to the size of the economy, and low spending
on health and education.

Malawians vote in presidential election

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/05/malawians-vote-presidential-election-201452031555475647.html

Malawians have started voting in an election in which 11 candidates
are vying to unseat President Joyce Banda, southern Africa's first
female head of state, who came to power two years ago.

The only two opinion polls published have had very different results,
but most analysts rank Banda as favourite in Tuesday's vote, pointing
to her popularity in rural areas where the government has been rolling
out development projects and farm subsidy schemes.

Banda's main challenge is from Lazarus Chakwera, a conservative
evangelical pastor who retired from the church last year to take the
helm of the Malawi Congress Party, the former British colony's first
ruling party.

Mutharika's younger brother Peter is also running as the head of the
Democratic Progressive Party, as is Atupele Muluzi, a son of former
president Bakili Muluzi.

Allegations of vote-rigging plots have been rife, although Banda has
rejected them. Malawi-based diplomats say the problem does not appear
to be as big as Banda's challengers make out.

"We have seen no credible evidence of rigging," British High
Commissioner Michael Nevin told the Reuters news agency.

"The electoral commission has, overall and up to now, done a fair job.
They have made, and they probably will make, mistakes - but that
doesn't mean that there is rigging or manipulation."

Polls are schedule to close at 16:00GMT and results are expected on
Wednesday or early Thursday.

Soldiers have been deployed in Malawi's commercial capital Blantyre
after voters, angered by delays and mishaps at polling stations in the
hotly contested presidential election, torched voting materials and
blocked roads.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/05/army-deployed-as-riots-mar-malawi-election-2014520224044241265.html

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.80% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.4549

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1167

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +29.49% 2014 [Fresh 2014 and more than 60 month High]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,658.13 75.38 +0.88%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.09% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

More than 100 killed in Nigeria twin blasts @AJEnglish

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/05/more-than-100-killed-nigeria-twin-blasts-201452021371317392.html

Twin car bombs that exploded at a crowded bus terminal and market in
Nigeria's central city of Jos have killed at least 118 people, the
country's emergency agency said.

"We've now recovered 118 bodies from the rubble," he said. "This could
rise by morning, as there is still some rubble we haven't yet
shifted."

The bombs were concealed in a truck and a minibus. officials said. The
second blast killed some of the rescue workers who had rushed to the
scene, which was obscured by billows of black smoke.

"It's horrifying, terrible," said Mark Lipdo of the Stefanos
Foundation, a Christian charity based in Jos, who described the
sickening smell of burning human flesh.

President Goodluck Jonathan condemned the blasts, calling the
perpetrators "cruel and evil".

Jos has been relatively free of attacks by Boko Haram, but the group
claimed responsibility for a bomb in a church in the highland city, as
well as two other places, on Christmas Day in 2011.

The city is in the heart of Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt", where
its largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet. The
surrounding Plateau state is often a flashpoint for violence.

Conclusions


President Goodluck seems strangely detached and that was a consequence
of not saying a single word about #BringbackourGirls until three whole
weeks after the event.

The Intensity and frequency continues to spike higher.

jos, Nigeria @AFP
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/74993000/jpg/_74993464_jbv2hput.jpg

read more



Boko Haram's Abubakar Shekau [The Taunter]
Africa


taunt
verb (used with object)
1.
to reproach in a sarcastic, insulting, or jeering manner; mock.
2.
to provoke by taunts; twit.
noun
3.
an insulting gibe or sarcasm; scornful reproach or challenge.
4.
Obsolete . an object of insulting gibes or scornful reproaches.

read more


Government’s continued failure to curb Boko Haram’s growing reach, which now extends far beyond the group’s stronghold in the rural northeast.
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.25% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Congo Republic set to climb African oil producer rankings

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0DZ13V20140519?sp=true

Geologists have drawn parallels between the West African coastline and
the geology of offshore Brazil, where billions of barrels in oil
reserves are tucked beneath a submerged salt crust layer.

In February, Eni said it had struck so-called "pre-salt" oil in
Congo's Nene Marine fields and estimated total reserves at 1.2 billion
barrels of oil and 30 billion cubic metres of gas. [ID:nI6N0LB00P]

While oil from new pre-salt finds may not come onstream for many
years, a series of multi-billion dollar projects will allow Congo to
leapfrog the current number 3 producer Equatorial Guinea by 2017,
Reuters calculations show.

"The international oil companies with the deep pockets have all opted
for Congo," said Ecobank's Lagos-based Energy Research Analyst Dolapo
Oni. "There are interesting opportunities in pre-salt and in shallow
water and onshore."

Ecobank also expects Congo to become the region's number three producer.

Production in Congo, a Central African nation of 4 million people, is
below the peak of around 310,000 bpd in 2010, according to data from
U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The data, based on announced projects from Total, Eni and Chevron,
indicate that production will rise by 175,000 barrels per day,
assuming steady output from existing fields.

This would raise total output to nearly 500,000 barrels per day from
around 270,000 bpd in 2013.

Top sub-Saharan African oil producers in 2013:

Country Production (BPD)


1. Nigeria 2,373,184
2. Angola 1,838,539
3. Equatorial Guinea 290,797
4. Republic of Congo 278,912
5. Gabon 242,834
6. South Africa 180,622
7. Chad 101,244
8. Ghana 97,483
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

NB. Sudan and South Sudan are excluded in the chart as the data is not
broken down by country


Nine dead in cholera outbreak in South Sudan capital - WHO

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0DZ13P20140519

read more



African Union Air Strike in Somalia Kills 50 al-Qaeda Militants
Kenyan Economy


African Union forces killed more than 50 insurgents in an attack on an
al-Shabaab stronghold in Somalia, as the death toll from clashes
between security forces and the Islamist militants in northeastern
Kenya doubled.

An African Union Mission in Somalia air strike targeted “senior
leadership and foreign al-Shabaab fighters” on the outskirts of the
southern town of Jilib earlier today, according to a statement on the
mission’s Twitter account. Kenyan military spokesman Major Emmanuel
Chirchir said the raid, the second targeting militants in Jilib since
May 18, was carried out by Kenyan Defence Force jets.

This week’s air raids come after twin explosions in the Kenyan
capital, Nairobi, on May 16 killed at least 12 peopled and injured
another 99. No one has claimed responsibility for the bombings.

In a separate incident in northeastern Kenya yesterday, at least 24
people were killed when security forces clashed with suspected
al-Shabaab militants who hijacked vehicles transporting consignments
of the narcotic leaf khat, according to a police official.

Eight police officers, a police inspector, six reservists and six
civilians were killed after they gave chase to three hijacked
vehicles, Mandera county Police Commander Noah Mwivanda said in a
phone interview today. Three people driving the vehicles were also
killed during the hijacking, he said.

Al-Shabaab said its fighters killed at least 10 Kenyan security forces
during the confrontation in Mandera, about 810 kilometers (502 miles)
northeast of Nairobi, and vowed to carry out further attacks unless
Kenyan troops withdraw from Somalia.

Since the Westgate incident, at least 54 people have died and more
than 193 have been wounded in “terrorist attacks” in Kenya, excluding
the May 16 explosions, according to Maplecroft

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/african-union-air-strike-in-somalia-kills-50-al-qaeda-militants.html

Westgate as seen from @CNBCAfrica's Office on the 19th Floor Ambank House

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

THE DASH-BOARD IS BLINKING AMBER 19-MAY-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1905-2.pdf

Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;


‘’When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what’s left is
terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic
poem, the bedtime story.”

Disbelief can be suspended, of course but eventually we reach a Marx
Brothers in duck soup moment.

‘’Well, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?’’

And if you mine social media like I do, you will know that duck soup
moment was crossed during Westgate. And continuing resolutely down
this path is eroding political capital.

“Look at the world around you. It may seem like an im- movable,
implacable place. It is not, with the slightest push - in just the
right place - it can be tipped.” Malcolm Gladwell.

22-APR-2014 :: The New set of Risks are Geopolitical Risks

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2104.pdf

Coming to Africa, we have to accept that geopolitical risks have
ratcheted higher. At a macro level, the US and China are in my view in
a conflictual relation on our continent.

As we drill further down to the micro level, we can see from South
Sudan [where I cannot see how either side can win this decisively] to
places like CAR, a significant deterioration.

This comment by the leader of Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamists Abubakar
Shekau caught my attention;

“We are in your city,” he said, addressing Nigeria’s President
Goodluck Jonathan.

That comment could have been made by the Al-Shebaab.

Both Boko Haram and Al-Shebaab represent a risk that David Lipton did
not touch on, that being asymmetric risks.

The recent bombings in Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm
the potency of asymmetric risks. African markets have taken these
risks in their stride. They might stumble if these asymmetric risks
ratchet higher.

Twin spikes in terror and crime hit Nairobi CS Monitor

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2014/0520/Twin-spikes-in-terror-and-crime-hit-Nairobi-video

 therefore, it is “behind the curve in a big way,” says investment
analyst Aly Khan Satchu.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.849

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.1427% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.129% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


@Samsung Tuesday launched a solar-powered classroom in Kajiado County in a model that is set to be replicated in rural areas not connected to the electricity grid #SamsungSmartSchoolKE
Kenyan Economy


Arap Moi Primary School in Ongata Rongai got the solar-powered
Internet classroom worth Sh12.9 million, a 40-foot shipping container
that Samsung has equipped with 25 Galaxy tablets, a multi-purpose
printer, a 50-inch electronic board, a server, internet and the solar
panels.

All the devices are built for use in a solar-powered environment.

Besides Kenya, Samsung has rolled out this project in South Africa,
Ethiopia, Gabon and Rwanda. The firm is targeting to connect 2.5
million students in the next twelve months.

“The world is fast changing and the only way to bridge the digital
divide in the rural schools is to provide them with innovation that
will make them globally competitive,” said Robert Ngeru, vice
president Samsung East Africa.

“In cases whereby schools have electricity and secure classrooms,
Samsung is able to supply the galaxy tablets, e-board, servers and
internet.”

@SamsungMobileKE  ·  20h Samsung partnered with Intel and Korea
Education and Research Information Service for content on the
computers. #SamsungSmartSchoolKE
@SamsungMobileKE  ·  20h "@SafaricomLtd has provided FREE internet to
the school for 5 years!" -  Samsung Vice President, Robert Ngeru
#SamsungSmartSchoolKE
@SamsungMobileKE  ·  23h Today, Samsung launches the FIRST Solar
Powered Internet School (SPIS) in Kenya #SamsungSmartSchoolKE

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Cabinet Secretary @H_Rotich gave an interview to Bloomberg from
Kigali, where he said  ''Kenya may sell its debut Eurobond this month
after settling two court-awarded payments linked to a corruption
scandal that had blocked the offering.''

The 1.4 billion-shilling ($16 million) payments, awarded by courts in
Geneva in 2012 and London in 2013, were made after authorization by
President Uhuru Kenyatta and "we don't have any other legal hurdles,"
Rotich said.

A schedule of planned presentations to investors will be announced by
next week, he said.

"The roadshow will take four or five days, so we could go to the
markets this month," Rotich said.

Kenya plans to sell $1.5 billion of Eurobonds to fund infrastructure
projects as per Bloomberg [I expect the National Treasury to unload
$2b worth of Bonds].

 The government has also said part of the funds raised will repay a
$600 million, two-year syndicated loan and therefore a $2b Benchmark
Issue will give the GOK $1.4b net.

This net $1.4b, will be a Catalyst for a further easing in domestic
interest rates, will be a counterweight to the Tourism related
slowdown and will support the Equity Markets higher and a much needed
shot in the Arm.

Clearly, the Equity markets are casting a wary eye at the Security
Situation. Interestingly, The Nigerian All Share which has had to
hurdle an even more intense news flow, Foreign Investors [who are in a
medium term secular allocation process re SSA] picked up everything
that the locals had to sell.

There are many moving parts now but on balance prices are now
underwritten at these levels given the forward Liquidity position post
the Eurobond.

The Shilling remains at August 2013 lows of 87.856 but will surely stabilise.

Safaricom, KCB and EABL traded a cumulative Value of Kenya shillings
1.196b and 80.298% of what was a busy session of 1.489b shillings of
Turnover.

The All Share eased 0.20 points to close at 150.31.

The Nairobi NSE20 eased 17.99 points to close at 4902.62.

a noteworthy feature of 2014 has been Small-Cap outperformance.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi improved 1.63% to close at 125.00 and was trading session highs
of 132.00 +7.32% at the finish line.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 13.05 [The weighted average price was
13.09 but that gets rounded down] on brisk volume of 55.25m shares
worth 723.252m. Safaricom traded its 3rd highest volume session of
2014, today. Safaricom has rebounded 3.571% since 15th May.
Safaricom's price is probably now underwritten at 13.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank ticked 0.53% lower to close at 46.50 and traded
5.288m shares worth 245.887m. Kenya Commercial Bank raced out of the
Blocks Q1 2014 and accelerated Q1 PAT +33.78% and therefore, looks
inexpensive on a Trailing PE of 9.6473.
Equity Bank firmed 0.66% to close at 38.00 and traded 2.092m shares
worth 79.501m. Equity Bank is +19.685% in 2014 and has corrected
6.172% since setting a 52 week closing High of 40.50 on the 9th of
this month. The Bulls ran with the news of The Application for the
Mobile Virtual Operation License.
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 22.25 and traded 927,600 shares. Sellers
outpaced Buyers by a Ratio of 3 versus 1 at the finish line, however.

CIC Insurance retreated 4.245% to close at 10.15 and was trading
shares at session lows of 9.95 -6.63% at the Finale. CIC Insurance
traded 822,200 shares and there was twice that for sale at the Finish.
CIC Insurance remains +70.588% in 2014 and one of the high flyers in
what has been a high flying sector since Q4 2013.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased 0.34% to close at 291.00 and traded 779,600 shares worth
227.043m. EABL rallied +14.885% 1st April through 12th May and has
subsequently corrected 3.32% in an orderly fashion which suggests this
is a small correction in a very much in play Bull Move that started in
February in fact.

Athi River Mining followed on yesterdays big ticket of 3.406m shares
traded to close unchanged at 81.50 and traded 507,100 shares worth
41.554m.
Bamburi Cement eased 2.82% to close at 172.00 and traded 204,500
shares. Bamburi Cement has retreated 18.095% this year.
East African Portland Cement EAPCC [where there is persistent chatter
that EAPCC might well be the Entry Point for Aliko Dangote] did not
trade. Portland Cement is +34.05% this year and thats after issuing a
Profits warning which speaks to the certainty that it is in play.

Sameer Africa which had encountered a bout of profit taking recently
rebounded 5.81% to close at 8.20 and traded shares as high as 8.50
+9.68% at the Finish. Sameer is +59.22% this year.

Crown Berger rallied 3.76% to close at a Fresh All Time High of 96.50.
Crown Berger is +28.666% in 2014.

Total Kenya firmed 2.9411% to close at 26.25. Total Kenya is +5.00% in
2014 and has further headroom.
Kenolkobil firmed 0.55% to close at 9.15. KenolKobil has rallied
7.647% and on very heavy volume since the middle of last week.

Express rallied 4.76% to close at 5.50. Express is now +41.025% and a
part of a very muscular Small-Cap performance at the Nairobi
Securities Exchange.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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