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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 22nd of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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THURSDAY, MAY 29 MAPUTO - Africa Rising Conference in Mozambique (to May 30). @Reuters
Africa


Speakers:- Mozambique Finance Minister Manuel Chang, Mozambique
President Armando Guebuza, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde,
Bank of Botswana Governor Linah Mohohlo, Uganda Finance Minister Maria
Kiwanuka, Cameroon Finance Minister Alamine Ousmane Mey, Bank of
Tanzania Governor Benno Ndulu, Bank of Mozambique Governor Ernesto
Gove, Mali Finance Minister Bouare Fily Sissoko, Ghana Finance
Minister Seth Terkper, Burkina Faso Finance Minister Lucien Marie Noel
Bembamba and IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard. CAIRO - Central
Bank of Egypt holds Monetary Policy Committee Meeting.

THURSDAY, MAY 29
Opening (Conference Center)

8:30am-9:30am
Introduction and welcome by:

Manuel Chang (Minister of Finance, Mozambique)
Opening speeches by:

Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, International Monetary Fund)
Armando Guebuza (President, Mozambique)
10:00am-12:00pm
Simultaneous
interpretation in English, French, and Portuguese.

PLENARY SESSION I: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Much of SSA has proven to be extraordinarily resilient to the 2007-08
global financial crisis. Growth slowed to 3.6 percent in 2009, but
quickly recovered to over 5.5 percent in the sub sequent years. For
low-and middle income countries, the key challenge in reducing poverty
is to maintain high growth going forward, while boosting job creation
and accelerating structural transformation in the context of pervasive
informality and the predominantly rural nature of poverty. But for
others, notably the fragile states, the first priority remains to
establish sufficient political and economic stability to join the
ranks of the "African Lions." At the same time, all of Sub-Saharan
Africa is facing significant long-term challenges, including those
stemming from climate change and demographic developments.

Moderator: Nikiwe Bikitsha (Television and Radio Journalist)

Panelists:

Aiuba Cuereneia (Minister of Planning and Development, Mozambique)
Linah Mohohlo (Governor, Bank of Botswana)
Ncube Mthuli (Chief Economist and Vice President of the AfDB)
Wang Yong (Vice President of the China-Africa Development Fund)
Mahktar Diop (Vice President for Africa, World Bank)
Read more about this session

12:30pm-2:00pm  Lunch--Keynote Speech
Rokia Traore (Singer and Founder of Fondation Passerelle, Mali)
The afternoon sessions will look at specific challenges facing African
economies. To discuss these issues, four panel sessions will cover
four inter-connected themes.
2:30pm-3:45pm
Simultaneous
interpretation in English, French, and Portuguese.

PARALLEL PANEL SESSION 1: HARNESSING AFRICA'S NATURAL RESOURCES FOR
THE BENEFIT OF CURRENT AND FUTURE GENERATIONS

PARALLEL PANEL SESSION 2: FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

PARALLEL PANEL SESSION 3: CREATING SUSTAINABLE DEEPER AND BROADER
FINANCIAL MARKETS

Finance is critical for long-term growth. However, financial markets
in many African markets lack depth, and therefore offer limited
financing opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, as
well as insufficient access for the population at large to financial
services. Yet, rapid increases in connectivity offer new opportunities
to all, even the poorest land-locked countries. With microfinance
institutions, mobile banking, and an intensification of the
development of debt markets, innovations over the past decade have led
to a broader range of institutions in a number of countries, but the
reach of those institutions is narrow and the sector remains largely
bank-centric. Most recently the fast growth of some African
cross-border banks has raised concerns about maintaining financial
stability in the context of rapid expansions of home-grown
institutions, and about adequate cooperation among financial
supervisors.

Moderator: Aly-Khan Satchu (CEO, rich.co.ke)

Panelists:

Ernesto Gove (Governor, Bank of Mozambique)
Benno Ndulu (Governor, Bank of Tanzania)
Tiémoko Meyliet Koné (Governor of the BCEAO)
Kitili Mbathi (Chairman, Stanbic Financial Services Kenya)
Lucio Vinhas de Souza (Managing Director and Sovereign Chief
Economist, Moody's Investors Services)
Read more about this session

PARALLEL PANEL SESSION 4: OVERCOMING FRAGILITY

4:45pm-5:45pm
Simultaneous
interpretation in English, French, and Portuguese.

PLENARY PANEL SESSION 2:FOSTERING INCLUSION AND JOB CREATION

The over-arching objective for low-income countries is poverty
reduction. How can SSA's growth acceleration be translated into
improvements in living standards for the majority of the population,
particularly for the poorest? Recent IMF work shows that while the
poor have generally benefitted from high growth, relative income
disparities have widened and employment generation has been
disappointing. Whether growth was inclusive or not depended in many
countries to a large degree on developments in the agricultural
sector, often neglected. Social safety nets, which can provide direct
support to the poorest, remain limited in SSA.

Moderator: Eleni Giokos (Senior anchor, Bloomberg TV Africa)

Panelists:

Lucien Marie Noël Bembamba (Minister of Finance, Burkina Faso)
Patrus Ananias (Former Brazilian Minister of Social Development and
the Fight Against Hunger)
Sipho Moyo, Africa Director of the ONE Campaign
Antoinette M. Sayeh (Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund)
Lemma Senbet (Executive Director, African Economic Research Consortium
Lionel Zinsou (Chairman and CEO, PAI Partners)

5:45pm-6:45pm   Special session between the Managing Director and
African Ministers and Governors

FRIDAY, MAY 30
Back To Top

8:30am-8:45am
Keynote Speech:

Graça Machel (Member, Africa Progress Panel)
8:45am-10:15am
Simultaneous
interpretation in English, French, and Portuguese.

PLENARY PANEL SESSION 3:STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND PRIVATE SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

The public sector remains the most important source of formal sector
employment in most Sub-Saharan African countries, but global
experience suggests that the key to long-term growth is boosting
private sector activity. While constraints are diverse and country
specific, reducing business costs, streamlining regulations, and
promoting trade remain important goals for many African countries.
Moreover, despite sustained high growth, structural transformation has
been limited in many African countries. Manufacturing sectors are
small in most of SSA; agriculture is characterized by low productivity
and little use of technology; and mining sectors are typically
foreign-owned enclaves with limited job opportunities and little
integration into the overall economy. Yet, population projections
suggest that Sub-Saharan Africa will enjoy a demographic dividend,
reflected in much faster-growing working age populations than other
regions of the world.

Panelists:

Henry Rotich (Cabinet Secretary, Kenya)
Sarah Alade (Acting Governor, Nigeria)
Olivier Blanchard (Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund)
Jingdong Hua (Vice-President and Treasurer, International Finance Corporation)
Andrew Rugasira (CEO, Good African Coffee, Uganda)
Peter Sands (CEO, Standard Chartered Bank)
Read more about this session

10:45am-12:15pm
CONCLUDING ROUNDTABLE: NEXT STEPS AND JOINT ACTION

The panel will draw key conclusions from the conference Africa Rising:

What are the long term challenges, both at the global and continental
levels, for policy making in SSA?
What can governments, the private sector and civil society do jointly
over the next decade, and what are their respective roles?
What is the IMF's role as a partner for SSA, and are the IMF's policy
advice, financial support, and capacity building efforts adequate?
Moderator: Nikiwe Bikitsha (Television and Radio Journalist)

Panelists:

Alberto Vaquina (Prime Minister, Mozambique)
Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, International Monetary Fund)
Daniel Kablan Duncan (Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Côte d'Ivoire)
Winnie Byanyima (Executive Director, Oxfam International)
Bob Collymore (CEO, Safaricom, and Governance Director for Africa, Vodacom)

read more





Difficult times have helped me to understand better than before, how infinitely rich and beautiful life is in every way, and that so many things that one goes worrying about are of no importance whatsoever. Isak Dinesen
Africa


Out Of Africa Karen Blixen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Out_of_Africa

P.196

The early morning Air of the African highlands is of such a tangible
coldness and freshness that time after time the same fancy there comes
back to you: you are not on Earth but in dark deep waters, going ahead
along the bottom of the Sea. It is not even certain that you are
moving at all: the flows of chilliness against your Face may be the
deep-sea currents, and your car, like some sluggish electric Fish, may
be sitting steadily upon the bottom of the Sea, staring in front of
her with the glaring Eyes of her Lamps, and letting the submarine life
pass by here. The Stars are so large because they are not real stars
but reflections, shimmering upon the surface of the Water. Alongside
your path on the sea-bottom, live things, darker than their
surroundings, keep on appearing, jumping up and sweeping into the long
grass, as crabs and beach-fleas will make their way into the sand. The
Lights get clearer, and, about sunrise, the sea-bottom lifts itself
towards teh surface, a new created Island. Whirls of smells drift
quickly past you, fresh rank smells of the olive-bushes, the brine
scent of burnt grass, a sudden quelling smell of decay.

read more



Russia's Putin signs 30 year gas deal with China BBC
Law & Politics


The deal between Russia's Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp
(CNPC) has been years in the making. No official price has been given
but it estimated to be worth over $400bn.

Conclusions

This is a direct consequence of a simultaneous Pivot to Asia/China and
to Ukraine/China which has led to a Sino-Russian Embrace.

On balance, this makes it more likely that the US will seek to harden
its hand and expeditiously.

The agreement is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually over 30
years, Miller said. He declined to give a price.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/russia-signs-china-gas-deal-after-decade-of-talks.html

"This is undoubtedly an historic event," Miller said, adding the deal
was clinched at 4.a.m. "This is truly an enormous supply volume."

Gas supply will start in four to six years and the construction of the
$22 billion pipeline linking Siberian fields with China may be partly
financed through advance payments for the gas, under discussion now,
Miller said.

read more



completely predictable dynamic of the Western hardline on Ukraine driving Russia and its gas into the arms of the PRC
Law & Politics


Russia-China gas deal: The strengthening of ties between these two
nations bodes ill for US power

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/russiachina-gas-deal-the-strengthening-of-ties-between-these-two-nations-bodes-ill-for-us-power-9412817.html

In 1972, at the height of the Cold War, President Nixon made his
famous visit to China to normalise relations with Beijing and thus
gain advantage against its superpower rival, the Soviet Union. This
week, Russia's Vladimir Putin made his journey to China. The countries
in this strategic triangle are the same, but their roles have been
transformed.

"To beef up military alliances targeted at a third party is not
conducive to maintaining common security in the region," Xi

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/us-china-xi-idUSBREA4K02V20140521

Xi made his remarks at a regional conference in Shanghai in front of
Vietnamese Vice President Nguyen Thi Doan, as well as representatives
from the Philippines, Japan and more than 40 other countries and
organizations.

He did not mention the United States.

"We need to innovate our security cooperation (and) establish new
regional security cooperation architecture," said Xi, speaking to an
audience that included President Vladimir Putin of Russia

http://news.yahoo.com/china-calls-asian-security-structure-030807705.html

Chinese courts jail dozens of Uighurs over terror charges

http://www.dw.de/chinese-courts-jail-dozens-of-uighurs-over-terror-charges/a-17650254?maca=en-TWITTER-EN-2004-xml-mrss

The Xinjiang Supreme Court on Wednesday said 39 people had been
sentenced to prison after they were convicted of crimes that included
organizing and leading Uighur separatist terror groups.

Other offences included inciting ethnic hatred, both verbally and
through the distribution of audio and video material.

"Violent terrorism has become a major threat to ethnic unity and
social stability in Xinjiang," the court said in a statement. "We must
eliminate from the root the soil where violent terrorist thoughts
should grow by severely cracking down on the criminal activities of
spreading terrorism audios and video."

 Xinjiang might well morph into China's Afghanistan 02-DEC-2013

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0212.pdf

Explosions at market in restive Xinjiang capital claim lives

http://www.dw.de/explosions-at-market-in-restive-xinjiang-capital-claim-lives/a-17652738?maca=en-TWITTER-EN-2004-xml-mrss

read more


A person lies on the ground after a blast in Urumqi, in an unverified photo. Photo: Weibo
Law & Politics


An unknown number of people have been killed following "multiple
explosions" at an open-air market in the restive Xinjiang capital
Urumqi.

Witnesses said cars ploughed into people as their occupants threw
explosives from the windows in the incident at 7.50am.

read more



Cold War Return Leaves @AbeShinzo's Russia Strategy in Tatters
Law & Politics


Japan's escalating tensions with China in recent years spurred Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe to resolve decades-old differences with another
neighbor -- Russia. Just as those efforts offered promise, the Crimea
crisis hit.

Now, Abe is backing U.S.-led efforts to punish Russia and President
Vladimir Putin is tightening ties with China, with the two nations
this week mounting their first joint naval drills near
Japan-controlled islands that are at the center of the
Chinese-Japanese rift. With a warning against other nations' planes or
ships entering the exercise zone, the budding Russia-China
relationship poses fresh challenges to Abe.

In contrast to the five meetings with Putin, Abe has yet to sit down
with Chinese President Xi Jinping

read more



The notoriety of global causes on Twitter @Economist
Law & Politics


The socioeconomic challenges that all of these countries will confront
could trigger a new youth rebellion, which, unlike the 2011 uprisings,
would not be directed at the current rulers but at the entire
political and economic establishments that control these countries.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141442/tarek-osman/who-will-win-the-middle-east

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3673 might trade as low as 1.3380
Dollar Index 80.15
Japan Yen 101.70 Dollar-yen touched 100.82 yesterday, the lowest since
Feb. 5, before closing in New York at 101.37, above the 200-day moving
average at 101.28
Swiss Franc 0.8938
Pound 1.6888 heads to 1.7350 I venture
Aussie 0.9266 The Aussie climbed 0.2 percent to 92.66 U.S. cents after
earlier weakening as much as 0.3 percent. It touched 92.09 yesterday,
the least since May 2.
India Rupee 58.56 still looking for a move to 57.50
South Korea Won 1024.75
Brazil Real 2.2080
Egypt Pound 7.1249
South Africa Rand 10.3811

A preliminary reading of a Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers'
index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 49.7 in May, the
strongest since December.

Pound's Five-Year High Shows Ascent to Hero From Zero Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/pound-holds-four-day-gain-before-boe-minutes-retail-sales-data.html

A trade-weighted index of the currency climbed to its strongest level
since 2008 today on speculation surging retail sales will push the
Bank of England closer to raising interest rates.

The pound's 10 percent surge in the past 12 months made it the best
performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes

"It wasn't long ago that there was speculation about a triple-dip
recession and that was reflected in a weaker sterling," said Neil
Jones, the head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London.
"Since then sentiment has turned a complete 180, and with it the
currency. The U.K. will be the first major economy to raise interest
rates. I'm looking for more of the same."

Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.6888 [My near objective is 1.7350]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

So how does an investor play this recovery. I think you need to be net
long sterling. 12-AUG-2013 The Recovery in the West is not a Mirage It
Is Real

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1208.pdf

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.15

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3673 [will remain under pressure]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more





Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1292.135

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 104.01

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

Front-month futures climbed $1.63 to $104.07 yesterday, the highest
close since April 21. The volume of all contracts traded was about 7
percent below the 100-day average. Prices have gained 5.7 percent this
year.

Louis Vuitton leather-product label's value jumped 14 percent to $25.9
billion, placing LVMH's biggest and most profitable brand atop the
luxury ranking for the ninth straight year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/less-is-more-as-vuitton-stays-top-luxury-brand-in-ranking.html

Hermes, the French maker of Birkin bags that's part-owned by LVMH,
also rose 14 percent to place second at $21.8 billion. Kering SA
(KER)'s Gucci, a direct competitor to Vuitton, gained 27 percent to
$16.1 billion was third on the list.

Clothing brand Prada (1913), watchmaker Rolex, jewelry producer
Cartier, and fashion labels Chanel and Burberry placed fourth to
eighth in the luxury list, respectively. Burberry's value surged 42
percent to $5.9 billion, the fastest growth in the segment, as the
London-based company halted some promotions on rainwear and leather
goods, Millward Brown said.

read more


The value of Indian equities has climbed about $412 billion since Sept. 13, when the Bharatiya Janata Party named Modi as its candidate for prime minister.
Emerging Markets


India's S&P BSE Sensex index rallied 15 percent this year through May
19, the most among the world's 20 largest stock markets tracked by
Bloomberg. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., State Bank of India and Oil
& Natural Gas Corp. jumped more than 40 percent for the top gains. The
rupee climbed 5.5 percent versus the dollar in the period.

India's market value climbed to $1.42 trillion on May 19.

Switzerland is the ninth largest stock market at $1.61 trillion, while
Germany is eighth at around $2 trillion. The U.S. is the biggest at
$22.5 trillion.

Frontier Markets

read more


African bonds lose honeymoon feeling @FT
Africa


Few statistics better show the rise of Africa over the last decade
than the sharp increase in the number of countries in the region
boasting a sovereign credit rating. With the inclusion last week of
Ethiopia, the number of African nations rated by at least one of the
three top agencies - Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's - has risen
to 26, up from 15 a decade ago and just one in 1994.

Africa has until now enjoyed a honeymoon of maiden ratings and a
handful of upgrades. The trend has accompanied a wave of foreign
direct investment and cheap funding through sovereign bonds. The
African Bank of Development forecasts that foreign flows into the
continent will rise this year to a record high of $84.3bn, up 22.5 per
cent from last year and surpassing the record set in 2012.

But for a handful of African countries, the honeymoon is over. They
have discovered that sovereign ratings are a painful two-way street.
Some have already seen their ratings cut due to mounting fiscal
deficits, and the rating agencies have told several others they risk
downgrades. S&P has over the past six months put on negative outlook
Zambia, Ghana and Nigeria; and it has cut the credit rating of
Mozambique, Uganda and Cape Verde.

"We see slippage on fiscal deficit and current account and that
triggers the alarm," says Ravi Bhatia, a regional expert on Africa at
S&P in London. Aurelien Mali, analyst at Moody's in Dubai, adds:
"Deteriorating fiscal metrics are an increasing risk to public finance
stability for some sub-Saharan African sovereigns."

Part of the problem is that Africa is the victim of its own success.
Mr Bhatia explains that as economic growth accelerates, "countries are
sucking in imports, causing the current account to post sizeable
deficits". At the same time, "governments are spending lots, partially
on development related items, creating big fiscal deficits", he adds.

As a whole, the region looks robust, and is enjoying a virtuous circle
of strong economic growth and improved governance that many have
called "Africa Rising". Debt-to-GDP ratios remain far lower than in
southern European countries. Thus investors remain unnerved, and
continue to pour billions of dollars into local equity and bond
markets in the region.

But if the trend of rising deficits continues and spreads, it could
derail the surge in investments that have transformed stock markets
from Lagos to Nairobi.

African policy makers have already seen some of the negative effects
associated with this kind of leap in economic growth.

The government in Zambia lifted public sector salaries by 50 per cent
last year, sending its fiscal deficit to 8.5 per cent, up from 2.5 per
cent five years earlier. When Zambia returned to the sovereign bond
market earlier this year, it was forced to pay a yield of 8.625 per
cent for a 10-year $1bn sovereign bond, up from 5.63 per cent on its
bond market debut in 2012.

And Ghana, battling a double-digit fiscal deficit after a 75 per cent
hike in public salaries over two years, has had to postpone its return
to the bond market.

Add to this mix the impact of the US Federal Reserve "tapering" its
emergency bond-buying programme, and borrowing costs across several
African countries, which are expected to surge this year and into
2015. This complicates the task of refinancing existing bonds when
they mature over the next two to three years, particularly if
investors turn away from frontier markets.
Kenya is an example of the refinancing problem. Nairobi earlier this
month was forced to negotiate a three-month extension in the repayment
of a $600m two-year syndicated loan due to the delay in issuing its
first sovereign bond.

Carmen Altenkirch, a director for Africa at Fitch in London, says: "If
a eurobond were to mature at a time when market access were denied,
then an issuer might have no alternative but to pay the bond out of
possibly limited reserves."

Investors can find some solace: the pipeline of new sovereign ratings
seems full. Ivory Coast is likely to get one in the next two months,
lifting the number of rated countries in Africa to 27. And Tanzania,
Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are future candidates, bankers say.
They may be able to prolong the honeymoon.

Conclusions

Dear @JavierBlas2,


I thank you for your timely and interesting filings from Kigali. What
is clear is that what was a homogenous SSA rising tide has morphed
into something more nuanced and sophisticated in 2014. The Recurrent
Expenditure component is the Achilles Heel and some Governments Ghana
and Zambia were working with some extremely optimistic models and have
been crushed. In some recent reports, Macro-economic stability has
been cited as a key ingredient of recent gains. I can think of no
better Crew that can keep SSA Policy making on an even keel than the
International Bond Markets. Therefore, I for one, welcome SSA Bond
Issuance because its going to be positive and normative. of course,
some Governments have yet to properly understand what it is like to
cede the pricing over your own credit on a real time basis to
International Investors. Aly-Khan Satchu

read more


AfDB annual meeting: "You can't eat GDP" @FT Subscriber
Africa


The AfDB on Monday forecasted economic growth across the region will
accelerate this year to 4.8 per cent, from 3.9 per cent in 2013. Next
year, it will increase to 5-6 per cent, "thus to levels last seen
before the onset of the 2009 global recession".

Violence in Africa is a key reason behind the note of caution.
According to the AfDB, in 2012 - the latest available data - there
were 13 armed conflicts across the continent, twice the number in
2005, when violence in Africa hit its lowest level since the end of
the Cold War in 1989. Add to the figure of 2012 the current conflicts
in South Sudan and the Central African Republic, and Islamist terror
attacks in Nigeria and Kenya, and the outlook would sober even the
most ardent "Africa Rising" enthusiast.

And yet, progress towards democracy remains unabated. In 2014-15, 600m
Africans, including many first-time voters, will elect their leaders,
the bank notes.

Another reason for the caution is intra-African trade - or, more
properly, the lack of it.

The thriving business community in Africa still faces huge obstacles
to trade and investment into other countries within the continent.
According to the AfDB, African nationals need visas to get into at
least two thirds of other African countries. And intra-African
transport is not easy, either. "To get from the port of Mombasa to
Kigali via Kampala, a lorry has to pay $864 in bribes and stop at 36
roadblocks," the bank says.

And yet, there are signs of progress on the trade front too. Although
commerce between African states remain comparatively low, it has been
growing at an annual rate of 13.5 per cent since 2000. Intra-African
trade was valued in 2012 at $81bn and has already overtaken Africa-US
trade for the first time. Meanwhile, African-based companies accounted
last year for nearly a quarter of all the foreign direct investment
that the region received, in spite of visa problems.

read more


"I have stopped counting the Africa Rising conferences I have been to," Dr Kaberuka chided on Monday, and not for the first time.
Africa


"Whose Africa is rising? You cannot eat economic growth," he said,
using a catchphrase that can be heard anytime and anywhere in Africa.
That in itself should be worrying leaders.

Dr Kaberuka referred to the "severe problems" affecting several
countries, naming South Sudan and Zimbabwe. Prof Ncube put poverty
reduction at the centre of Africa's immediate objectives. He named the
Democratic Republic of Congo as a country whose macroeconomic policies
were less likely to make headway, and Ethiopia as one whose policies
were having a positive effect.

For those who continue to get it wrong, conflicts and instability
await. And, as Prof Ncube said, it takes an average of 15 years for
countries to recover from conflicts.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.86% 2014 [All Time High]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3834

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

South Africa's inflation rate accelerated to 6.1 percent in April,
exceeding the central bank's maximum 6 percent target and bolstering
the case for higher interest rates.

Egypt's Hosni Mubarak jailed for embezzlement

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27499325

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1249

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +29.03% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,626.97 -31.16 -0.36%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.24% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

But the death toll and frequency of extremist attacks have increased
this year, with more than 2,000 killed in the insurgency compared with
an estimated 3,600 between 2010 and 2013.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/21/boko-haram-militants-kill-48-attacks-villages-northeast-nigeria

Rescuers carry a body recovered from a shop burned by car bombs in
Jos's terminus market. Most of the victims were women and children.
Photograph: AFP/Getty

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/21/boko-haram-militants-kill-48-attacks-villages-northeast-nigeria

Kidnappings are a fact of life in Nigeria. It is a rare day that
passes without a kidnapping.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-05-20-bringbackourgirls-and-the-trouble-with-hashtag-diplomacy/#.U3xcIhZViX2

According to one database, there were 3,608 kidnappings in 2013 alone,
and 2,285 in the first four months of 2014. It is an epidemic.

"The Abuja, Kano and Plateau bombings would appear to suggest that
Boko Haram retains the capacity and intent to stage deadly strikes
outside of its stronghold in the northeast despite the nearly yearlong
sustained military operations in the region," Drum Cussac, said in
e-mailed comments today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-20/nigerian-city-hit-by-blasts-as-more-troops-sent-to-northeast.html

The bombings will put the security record of President Goodluck
Jonathan's administration under "further scrutiny," Drum Cussac said.

Nigeria Mapping Boko Haram Attacks [Theatre of operations is expanding]

http://www.marxist.com/images/stories/nigeria/boko_haram_map.jpg

Pillar of west African security struggles to keep peace at home in
Nigeria FT Subscriber

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3a0d25f0-e0f0-11e3-a934-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32MCvLtOE

The army is deployed in 25 of the federation's 36 states, according to
security officials, who acknowledge that troops are thinly stretched
and slow to adapt to evolving security threats. Those include a wave
of deadly banditry across the predominately Muslim north, conflict
over land and other resources at the centre, and a surge in
kidnapping, armed robbery and oil theft in the south
The most obvious threat, however, is in the escalating violence
perpetrated by the extremist sect Boko Haram, the prime suspect in
twin car bombings that claimed at least 118 lives in the city of Jos,
northeast of the capital, on Tuesday.
It was one of the deadliest attacks yet in a five-year insurgency that
has cost 12,000 lives, according to President Goodluck Jonat han, and
which gained international notoriety with the abduction on April 14 of
more than 200 teenage schoolgirls at Chibok.
The Jos bombings appear calculated to reignite tension along religious
and ethnic faultlines in a part of Nigeria's "middle belt", where
thousands have been killed in communal violence over the past decade
but where Boko Haram has not recently been active.
The bombs, and recent terrorist attacks in Abuja, the capital, and
Kano, reasserted the al-Qaeda-linked group's capacity to strike well
beyond its heartland in the impoverished northeastern states bordering
Chad, Cameroon and Niger. It also sent a defiant message to the
foreign security experts lining up behind Nigeria.
"The military are not normally equipped to fight terrorists who abduct
children and detonate suicide bombs. They are trained for conventional
warfare," said Olusegun Obasanjo, a former head of state who in the
1960s was a commander in Nigeria's civil war. "They need to be
specially trained and equipped."

''There is a dark underbelly to the army that the government does not
want any other government to see," a western official told the
Financial Times.

Paradoxically, as defence spending has increased insecurity has risen,
with allegations of corruption in defence contracts and of "security
votes" - a term used to describe opaque allocations to the presidency
and state governors.

Muhamadu Buhari an austere former military ruler who ran against Mr
Jonathan in 2011 elections, said members of the national assembly were
preparing to ask tough questions of the service chiefs.

"What have they being doing with the trillions if they can't equip the
military?" he said, referring to this year's $5.8bn defence budget.
"Professionalism in the military has to be revived to stabilise the
polity. You can't have a developing country of this size with an
incompetent military.".

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.25% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

''No You shouldn't take Photos'' says Grace Mugabe @channel4

http://www.channel4.com/news/is-robert-mugabe-in-hospital-for-cancer-treatment-video

The Gleneagles Hospital was named one of the world's top 10 hospitals
for medical tourists in 2013. In a statement, Mugabe's spokesman
George Charamba said the president was on a week-long "private visit"
during which he will undergo "a routine eye check-up following a
recent procedure on the same". There have long been reports though
that Mugabe is suffering from cancer. There is a well-regarded cancer
clinic at the hospital.

Swaziland's Mswati III bans meetings and berets Video

http://mg.co.za/multimedia/2014-05-20-swazilands-mswati-iii-bans-meetings-and-berets

Senegal Finance Minister Says $500 Million Eurobond Sale by July

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/senegal-finance-minister-says-500-million-eurobond-sale-by-july.html

Yields on Senegal's $500 million of 10-year notes due May 2021 fell 62
basis points since Dec. 31, or 0.62 percentage point, to 6.23 percent
by 10:17 a.m. in Dakar.

Senegal's economy, which earns much of its foreign currency from
exports of fish and peanuts, is forecast to expand 4.9 percent this
year from 3.5 percent in 2013, the International Monetary Fund said
last month. The second-largest economy in the eight-nation West
African Economic and Monetary Union targets growth of at least 7
percent annually in the next 10 years, Ange Constantin Mancabou, an
adviser to Ba, said in an interview in Kigali.

read more


Mo ibrahim Tweets via Javier Blas of the FT
Africa


Javier Blas @JavierBlas2  ·  40m #afdam2014 Mo Ibrahim: "We have
presidents at 90 years old starting new terms... presidents in
weelchairs" #Africa
Javier Blas @JavierBlas2  ·  42m #afdam2014 Mo Ibrahim: "This is a
continent of young people ... [but] look at the age of our presidents:
66 years old" #Africa

Angola and Gabon 'to become holiday hotspots'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/africaandindianocean/10846108/Angola-and-Gabon-to-become-holiday-hotspots.html

read more



Kenya May Sell Eurobond This Month After Legal Hurdles Cleared
Kenyan Economy


Kenya may sell its debut Eurobond this month after settling two
court-awarded payments linked to a corruption scandal that had blocked
the offering, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said.

The 1.4 billion-shilling ($16 million) payments, awarded by courts in
Geneva in 2012 and London in 2013, were made after authorization by
President Uhuru Kenyatta and "we don't have any other legal hurdles,"
Rotich said in an interview today in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. A
schedule of planned presentations to investors will be announced by
next week, he said.

"The roadshow will take four or five days, so we could go to the
markets this month," Rotich said.

Kenya plans to sell $1.5 billion of Eurobonds to fund infrastructure
projects including rail and roads as part of a program to transform
the country into a middle-income country by 2030. The government has
also said part of the funds raised will repay a $600 million, two-year
syndicated loan that was extended for three months last week.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.787
Kenyan Economy


The last time the shilling traded above Sh87.80 was in January 5, 2012
when it stood at Sh88.44 to the dollar via @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-slide-to-new-low-piles-pressure-on-consumers/-/539552/2322768/-/item/1/-/128xi63z/-/index.html

"When the Eurobond goes through, hard currency worth billions of
shillings will have a strengthening impact on the shilling and pull
down interest rates. That is the kind of scenario our next fiscal year
is based on," said Dr Thugge.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-slide-to-new-low-piles-pressure-on-consumers/-/539552/2322768/-/item/1/-/128xi63z/-/index.html

National Treasury relied on a presidential fiat when it drew Sh1.4
billion from the Consolidated Fund on Monday to settle contentious
claims by two Anglo Leasing firms, Parliament heard on Wednesday.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-paid-Anglo-Leasing-on-Uhuru-spokesman-s-order/-/539546/2322758/-/j2h044z/-/index.html

Treasury principal secretary Kamau Thugge told a parliamentary
committee that his office released the payment on President Uhuru
Kenyatta's directive, which was communicated through an email from
State House spokesperson Manoah Esipisu.

"I had the consent of Controller of the Budget and a directive from
the President, but the law allows me to inform Parliament two weeks
after the transaction in case it is in recess," Dr Thugge told the
Public Accounts Committee (PAC) on Wednesday.

"I did not wait for the President's written and signed directive under
seal as required by the Constitution because the payment was to be
made urgently and Mr Esipisu had assured me it (signed directive) was
on the way," he added.

The two firms are associated with Irish businessman Anura Perera, one
of the architects of Anglo Leasing contracts. "I can't say we made
payment to Mr Perera, but the law firms are his agents," Dr Thugge
said.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.9963% 2014 [1.545% below a record high
reached 12th May]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

150.31 -0.20 -0.13%

Kenya Stocks Drop as Attacks Prompt Longest Selloff in 5 Months @eombok

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-21/kenya-stocks-drop-as-attacks-prompt-longest-selloff-in-5-months.html

Kenyan shares fell for a seventh day in the longest stretch of losses
since December as attacks in the country prompted foreign investors to
pull their money from East Africa's biggest economy.

The FTSE-NSE 25 Share Index dropped 0.1 percent to 191.66 by the close
in Nairobi, the lowest since April 25. CIC Insurance Group Ltd. was
the biggest decliner in the period, falling 13 percent, followed by a
7.3 percent drop in Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd.

"The decline is mostly about security concerns," Moses Waireri, head
of research at Nairobi-based Sterling Capital Ltd., said by phone.
"Foreigners are pulling out their money."

Kenya has faced a growing number of attacks since sending troops to
fight the al-Shabaab Islamist militants in neighboring Somalia in
October 2011. Countries including the U.K. and U.S. have advised
against traveling to parts of Kenya, including the port city of
Mombasa. On May 16, two explosions hit the Gikomba market in Nairobi,
killing 12 people and injuring 99. In September, al-Shabaab attacked a
shopping mall in Nairobi, leaving 67 dead.

The Kenyan index rallied 8.7 percent in April, the biggest monthly
gain since January 2013, prompting investors to take profit, according
to Aly-Khan Satchu, chief executive officer of Rich Management Ltd. in
Nairobi. CIC Insurance, Co-op Bank, Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd.
and Equity Bank Ltd., are the worst performers in the selloff.

"The recent spike in frequency and intensity of attacks has given the
bulls a pause," he said. "We had some pretty out-sized gains on these
four stocks and now people are taking gains, which is a natural
consequence of a more defensive market," Satchu said.

Conclusions


My Comments from yesterday apply

Kenya plans to sell $1.5 billion of Eurobonds to fund infrastructure
projects as per Bloomberg [I expect the National Treasury to unload
$2b worth of Bonds].

 The government has also said part of the funds raised will repay a
$600 million, two-year syndicated loan and therefore a $2b Benchmark
Issue will give the GOK $1.4b net.

This net $1.4b, will be a Catalyst for a further easing in domestic
interest rates, will be a counterweight to the Tourism related
slowdown and will support the Equity Markets higher and a much needed
shot in the Arm.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.4942% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,902.62 -17.99 -0.37%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Insurance and financial services group Jubilee Holdings has won a
joint 30-year concession deal to operate Uganda's Bujagali
hydro-electric power project

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Jubilee-signs-deal-to-operate-Uganda-hydro-power-plant-/-/539550/2322722/-/d54r7h/-/index.html

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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