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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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と〜ちゃん® @tochandesu 東京のゲリラ豪雨がやばい Tokyo Storm Africa |
“All cruel people describe themselves as paragons of frankness.” ― Tennessee Williams
“I don't want realism. I want magic!” ― Tennessee Williams, A Streetcar Named Desire
“The violets in the mountains have broken the rocks.” ― Tennessee Williams, Camino Real
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3650 within sight of a three-month low of $1.3634 set on Wednesday. Dollar Index 80.25 Japan Yen 101.76 Swiss Franc 0.8948 Pound 1.6870 Aussie 0.9236 India Rupee 58.505 India’s rupee headed for a fourth weekly gain, the longest winning streak in more than a year The rupee was steady today after touching 58.3700, the strongest level since June 18, 2013. It has rallied 3.2 percent since April 30. South Korea Won 1023.73 Brazil Real 2.2158 Egypt Pound 7.1308 South Africa Rand 10.3484
The euro has fallen 0.3 percent since May 16, extending a 1.3 percent decline in the previous two weeks. The yen is set for a 0.3 percent weekly drop.
The euro fell 1.25 percent in the past month versus a basket of nine other developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the worst performance within the gauge after the Swiss franc’s 1.32 percent slide. The yen climbed 0.9 percent, while the dollar added 0.1 percent.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.25 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Financial data firm Markit, meanwhile, said its preliminary or "flash" U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.2 in May from 55.4 in April
U.S. Treasury yields edged up on the data with the benchmark yield briefly hitting a 1-1/2 week high of 2.57 percent.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3650 [an outside objective is 1.3380] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
ECB President Mario Draghi said this month officials are ready to ease monetary policy in June, citing the euro’s strength as “cause for serious concern.” Policy makers next meet on June 5.
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.76 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
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China’s central bank chief admits difficulties with Africa @FT @Javierblas2 Africa |
Beijing has made a rare and candid admission of the difficulties in its economic relationship with Africa, with one of the country’s top financial officials describing some Sino-African deals as “not so good, not so satisfactory”.
The comments by Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, appear part of a much broader effort by Beijing to recalibrate its economic and trade relations with Africa in response to growing criticism inside and outside the continent.
“Different entities have behaved differently. There may have been some phenomena of Chinese investors [that were] not so good, not so satisfactory,” Mr Zhou said.
The comments are among the most forthright by senior Chinese officials about troubles in their country’s relationship with the continent, although Mr Zhou did not elaborate about specific deals.
China-Africa trade has surged over the past decade, reaching $200bn last year, up from $10bn in 2000 and $1bn in 1980, according to customs data. About 2,500 Chinese companies have established themselves in Africa over the last two decades.
Li Keqiang, Chinese premier, acknowledged during his first trip to the continent earlier this month that the relationship between Beijing and its African partners had suffered “growing pains”. But he rejected accusations that Beijing was pursuing a neocolonialist policy in Africa seeking the continent’s commodities.
Mr Zhou made his comments after he signed a $2bn deal with the African Development Bank, Beijing’s first ever departure from its “cheque book” policy of multibillion-dollar bilateral deals on the continent. The new fund will open contracts to the most suitable bidder rather than just to Chinese companies.
Western countries have in the past criticised what they describe as Beijing’s “cheque book” policy of lending money to African countries to largely benefit its own construction groups, which have built everything from roads to hospitals on the continent. African officials have complained about the poor quality of some of the Chinese-built infrastructure and the use of migrant labour from China rather than locals.
Mr Zhou said the new “Africa growing together” fund was “supplementary” to traditional Chinese lending to the continent, which until now has been channelled exclusively into grants, bilateral loans and infrastructure projects financed by Chinese state-owned banks. “[The fund] provides new flexibility and arenas to operate.”
Deborah Brautigam, an expert on China-Africa relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote that the new fund was a “huge change”.
“While the multilateral banks are not immune from corruption and embezzlement challenges, they do have stakeholders that try to hold them accountable in a transparent process,” she said. “That has not been the case with the Chinese policy banks.”
Despite the latest multilateral move, China’s bilateral engagement with Africa remains far larger – and it continues to grow. Mr Li announced during his trip that Beijing would increase its bilateral credit lines to African countries by $10bn, bringing the total to $30bn for 2013-15. He also announced another $2bn for infrastructure.
Malawi's ruling People Party has found "serious irregularities" in the counting and announcement of results from the southern African nation's May 20 election, President Joyce Banda said on Thursday, raising fears of a disputed outcome and violence. http://news.yahoo.com/serious-anomalies-malawi-vote-count-president-115152474.html
Reports included hackers breaking in to Malawi Election Commission (MEC) computers and ballot tallies exceeding the number of registered voters in some constituencies, prompting Banda to demand a manual count.
"It has come to my attention that there are some serious irregularities in the counting and announcement of results in some parts of the country," Banda said in a statement.
"I call upon the Malawi Electoral Commission to carry out an immediate manual audit of the whole process," she added, urging Malawi's 13 million people to remain calm during the delay.
The MEC said late on Wednesday it was abandoning its digital results platform, fuelling suspicions of skulduggery after a catalogue of mishaps surrounding the poll.
The only result released so far - a partial tally put out by the private Zodiak radio station - gave opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Peter Mutharika, the brother of late President Bingu wa Mutharika, a narrow lead.
However, the People Party of Banda, who took over as president after Bingu wa Mutharika's death in office two years ago, disputed the interim total and said the count had been compromised.
"We have reason to believe that the Malawi Electoral Commission digital election management platform has been hacked by some suspected DPP operatives," PP spokesman Wakuda Kamanga said a statement.
Mutharika said police and soldiers had been sent to his residence in the capital, Lilongwe, to search for a "hacking machine" but were refused entry because they had no warrant.
"What we want as DPP is a free and fair election. We know that Joyce Banda is trying to intimidate me by sending the army and making claims of rigging," he told reporters. "That is nonsense."
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.40% Fresh All Time Highs http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3486 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1312 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +30.53% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014] http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
8,727.54 +100.57 +1.17%
if the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014 http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2001.pdf
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.11% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE ASI) – has risen by 11.7 per cent since May 2013, despite having fallen by 6.7 per cent this year. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/05/22/guest-post-frontier-markets-more-profitable-less-volatile/
In the case of the largest African economy, whose weight in the MSCI FM is close to 15 per cent, the story is pretty much the same. Despite Sanusi’s suspension, widespread corruption and some recent restrictive decisions by the Nigerian Central Bank, the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE ASI) – has risen by 11.7 per cent since May 2013, despite having fallen by 6.7 per cent this year.
The recent bombings in Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm the potency of asymmetric risks. African markets have taken these risks in their stride. They might stumble if these asymmetric risks ratchet higher. 22-APR-2014 http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2104.pdf
#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's #Nairobi on the 19th Floor [and asymmetric risks] 241 days ago http://www.twitpic.com/deneco
@BBCAfrica Boko Haram Map of Attacks pic.twitter.com/Qx9lcXzTZV
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.50% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
The cedi retreated 1.4 percent to 2.9975 per dollar as of 12:30 p.m. in Accra, the capital, heading to breach 3 per dollar for the first time since it was rebased in 2007 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/ghana-s-cedi-weakens-to-head-for-3-against-dollar-for-first-time.html
The cedi retreated 1.4 percent to 2.9975 per dollar as of 12:30 p.m. in Accra, the capital, heading to breach 3 per dollar for the first time since it was rebased in 2007, when four zeroes were removed. The currency of the world’s second-largest cocoa producer declined 21 percent this year, the worst performer among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
“Their fiscal balance is really not doing well and then at the same time their exports aren’t doing well,” Celeste Fauconnier, an Africa analyst at FirstRand Ltd.’s Rand Merchant Bank, said by phone from Johannesburg. “That is affecting the current account which in turn is affecting the cedi.”
Ghana has been struggling to curb spending since its fiscal deficit ballooned to 12.1 percent of gross domestic product before 2012 elections. The gap will probably exceed 10 percent of GDP for a third consecutive year in 2014, Moody’s Investors Service said in February. Ghana has a B rating at Standard & Poor’s, five steps below investment grade, with a negative outlook, while Fitch Ratings lowered its assessment to negative from stable in April, five months after downgrading the rating one level to B.
Yields on the nation’s Eurobonds due August 2023, which started trading at about 8 percent when they were sold more than eight months ago, rose 1 basis point to 8.75 percent today. The cedi has weakened every year since Bloomberg began tracking it in 1994.
Ghana placed limits on dollar withdrawals and transfers to stem the cedi’s slide in February, while the central bank held interest rates at 18 percent on April 2 after increasing borrowing costs by 200 basis points, or two percentage points, in February. Finance Minister Seth Terkper cut fuel subsidies last year as the country increased water and electricity prices. Last month, Terkper said he plans to reduce the government’s wage bill, which absorbs more than 70 percent of tax income, to narrow the budget gap.
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28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel Africa |
3. Rising fiscal imbalances in some countries. This for me remains the Achilles’ Heel. The IMF said: “In a few cases, policy missteps, such as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. In addition, important home-grown risks arise from fiscal vulnerabilities in a number of countries such as Ghana and Zambia.’’ Ghana’s cedi has been in free-fall and the Zambian kwacha not far behind. The price the markets are exacting for ‘policy mis- steps’ is brutal.
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But commenting on the “disappointing” performance in Africa in the last quarter, he said: “We do not see Q4 as evidence of a new pattern emerging in Africa, so our growth ambitions remain strong for Africa.” SABMiller FT Subscriber Africa |
However, growth was “hampered by poor economic fundamentals” in South Sudan and Zimbabwe. Nigeria meanwhile saw “double-digit lager volume growth” SABMiller http://www.just-drinks.com/analysis/focus-sabmillers-fy-performance-by-region_id113776.aspx
Barclays, ex-boss Diamond compete for Africa's banking promise http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0E119B20140521?sp=true
LONDON/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Gaborone and Lusaka are the unlikely settings for a battle between one of the world's most famous investment bankers and his former firm over the future of African banking.
American banker Bob Diamond last week unveiled plans to raise $400 million to double the war chest of his African venture Atlas Mara and set him up to buy more banks.
This was just five days after Barclays, the British bank where Diamond was chief executive before he was ousted in 2012, announced the dismantling of the investment bank he built up and pinpointed Africa as one of its two main growth engines.
The prize both are chasing is sub-Saharan Africa's mostly unbanked 1 billion population and the companies there looking for capital to grow. Economies are growing on average at 5-7 percent a year, the fastest expansion in a generation, offering lucrative returns for lenders who get it right.
"It's ripe for entry," said Keith Jefferis, a former deputy governor at Botswana's central bank and now managing director at Econsult, a consultancy in Botswana's capital Gaborone.
"If you operate efficiently and pick up market share then potentially it's a very profitable strategy, but there is a lot of fragmentation. Each country has different systems so it’s very management intensive, but openings are there."
Diamond has already bought a platform in Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Rwanda. Barclays wants to be a top three bank in South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Botswana and Zambia and also operates in seven other countries.
New technology, in particular a mobile banking boom, should help banks spread further and reach more customers at far lower cost than in the past.
Diamond has teamed up with Africa-based entrepreneur Ashish Thakkar to set up Atlas Mara, with the intention of building it into Africa's leading financial services firm.
They spent most of a $325 million initial fundraising to buy BancABC in March, and will use the extra $400 million to get a deeper and broader footprint.
Less than a third of sub-Saharan Africans have bank accounts, and an even lower percentage of firms hold a loan or line of credit.
As well as huge untapped markets, margins are attractive, with the spread between borrowing and lending rates over 10 percent in many countries, compared to 2 percent or less in many western countries.
Barclays said its Africa business made a return on equity of 8-9 percent last year, below what it costs to raise capital, but it expects to improve that.
One investor in Atlas Mara said he expected Diamond to deliver a return on equity of 20 percent or more and pursue "an M&A strategy" in the company's early years.
"There's high growth in Africa and it's an underpenetrated market. It should also have a cost of capital advantage over the domestic banks, which is very significant and if he (Diamond) executes well it will only get stronger over time," the investor said, who asked not to be named as Atlas Mara is raising funds.
Two U.S. hedge funds are the biggest early backers for Atlas Mara. Clough Capital, based in Boston with $4.7 billion in assets, has a 10.8 percent stake, and Owl Creek Asset Management, a $4 billion hedge fund based in New York, has an 8 percent stake, according to regulatory filings.
Diamond's co-founder Thakkar runs conglomerate Mara Group with IT, manufacturing and real estate businesses across 19 African countries, and Atlas Mara Chairman Arnold Ekpe was CEO of Togo-based Ecobank Transactional between 1996 and 2001 and from 2005 to 2012.
Diamond has also poached John Vitalo, a former U.S. marine who has headed Barclays' Middle East and North Africa region for the past five years and previously led its African investment bank arm, to become chief executive. [ID:nL6N0N00ZZ]
Atlas Mara shares were suspended after its purchase of BancABC was treated as a reverse takeover, and are expected to relist in the next two months, probably with a market value of about $800 million. The shares last traded at $11.40, up from their December IPO price of $10.
Barclays, Standard Chartered and Citigroup are the biggest overseas banks in sub-Saharan Africa, although others are active in selling government bonds and catering to companies - which will remain the main focus of most international banks.
New technology has encouraged several domestic banks to grow regionally, including South Africa's Standard Bank, Nigeria's United Bank for Africa and Ecobank.
Chinese lenders also stepped in to fund infrastructure projects when some European lenders retreated during the financial crisis, and ICBC has taken a 20 percent stake in Standard Bank.
Ecobank, which operates in 35 countries, has been seen as a possible target for Diamond, although industry sources said he is more likely to be attracted by smaller banks that would be less of a turnaround task and could be integrated with BancABC.
Jenkins, meanwhile, is keen to increase the slice of revenue that comes from outside South Africa.
Barclays, which has 45,000 staff and 12 million customers in Africa, made a 1 billion pound profit there last year. Although its returns are short of target, the Africa business required 4 billion pounds of capital, or 8 percent of the group total, while it accounted for 16 percent of profit, adding to its attraction at a time when capital is scarce.
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Fuad Shongole said in a speech broadcast on the rebels' radio station that al-Shabab fighters would carry out jihad, or holy war, in Kenya and Uganda "and afterward, with God's will, to America." Kenyan Economy |
"America is waging a war in the Horn of Africa because they are responsive to the Quran verses saying that the Islamic flag will fly in every corner of the world," Shongole said, referring to Islam's holy book.
U.S. officials have long feared that Somali-Americans who left the U.S. to join the extremist fighters could travel back to the United States to carry out terror attacks. Senior al-Shabab leaders have rarely, if ever, publicly threatened to carry out attacks in the U.S.
The threat comes amid a heightening of security by the U.S. Embassy in neighboring Kenya.
"We swear by the almighty Allah that we'll move the war into Kenya, so let's see who suffers most," said Shongole, who spoke before a noisy crowd of supporters. "If one Somali girl is killed by their soldiers in Somalia, we shall murder their girls at home."
Mogadishu (AFP) - Somalia's Al-Qaeda linked Shebab vowed Thursday to move their war to neighbouring Kenya, one of the top commanders said in broadcast urging fighters to launch attacks. http://news.yahoo.com/somalias-shebab-chief-war-shifting-kenya-091005856.html
"The war will be shifting to Kenya, if they kill a Somali girl we kill a Kenyan girl," Fuad Mohamed Khalaf, one of the Shebab's most senior commanders, said in a radio broadcast.
"We are urging all the Muslims in Kenya... to fight the government of Kenya inside that country, because Kenyans killed your people including children," Khalaf said in a speech broadcast on the Shebab's Radio Andalus.
"When their soldiers and war planes kill your people, God permits you to retaliate accordingly, we will fight the Kenyans," Khalf said, viewed as second in importance only to Shebab chief Ahmed Abdi Godane.
The Shebab, who claimed responsiblity for the September 2013 attack on Nairobi's Westgate mall in which at least 67 people were killed, have also been blamed for a string of grenade blasts and killings.
Last week a double bomb attack in a Nairobi market left 10 people dead and scores wounded, while the United States has said it was preparing to cut staff levels in Kenya because of the mounting threat of attacks.
The Shebab said it was their guerillas who carried out a deadly ambush on an army convoy in Kenya's northeastern Mandera region on Monday, close to the border with Somalia.
Khalaf said the Shehab had trained fighters and vowed more would be sent to carry out attacks inside Kenya.
"We have trained the people... they are the ones who carried out the Mandera attack," he said. "More are going to be sent soon."
The United States have offered a $5 million bounty for Khalaf, who holds both Somali and Swedish nationality.
Conclusions
19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1905-2.pdf
Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;
‘’When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what’s left is terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic poem, the bedtime story.”
Grenade attack on police vehicle wounds two in Kenya's Mombasa http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/22/us-kenya-blast-idUSBREA4L11Q20140522
Officers had just picked up two suspects after getting information they were planning an unspecified crime, Mombasa county commissioner Nelson Marwa told journalists at the scene.
As the car left "their accomplice threw a grenade which exploded behind the police vehicle," he added.
Earlier in the evening, the government's National Disaster Operations Centre had said the blast was caused by an improvised explosive device.
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N.S.E Today |
The Kenya Shilling was last trading at 87.843 and below the key 88.00 Level which was breached momentarily this week. This Period of the year is one of secular weakness for the Shilling as Full Year Dividends get up streamed to Parent Companies. Nerves are frayed on the security side as well and this has added a further weaker tone. If 88.00 holds [which I expect it to do] then i can see the Shilling snapping back below 87 as everyone factors in the Liquidity from the Sale of our first international Eurobond. The Cabinet Secretary announced a Green Light in this regard from Kigali earlier this week. The Closing Data has not been received as I file this. Equity Turnover clocked 482.23m with Big Cap Banks seeing the Lion's share of activity and a strong feature. Kakuzi hit a record High and is +52.63% this year and a part of Small Cap Outperformance at the Exchange in 2014.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Kakuzi rallied 9.68% [the daily maximum] to close at an All Time High of 145.00. Kakuzi is +52.63% in 2014 and has led the Re-Pricing higher of this Niche post the bidding war for Rea Vipingo. That Exercise has proven and properly so a bullish Catalyst for prices in the Agricultural Sector.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom eased 0.3846% to close at 12.95 on scratchy volume of 2.74m shares. Safaricom was locked at 13.00 for most of the session. The Full Year Earnings Release will see Safaricom trend higher from here. The Price is underwritten below 13.00.
longhorn Kenya traded 10,200 shares all at 14.00 +4.87%.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
CFC Stanbic was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange today and closed unchanged at 144.00 and traded 682,300 shares worth 98.397m. CFC Stanbic has rallied a blistering +65.51% in 2014 and trades on a Trailing PE of 11.103. Equity Bank rallied 2.58% to close at 39.75 and was trading at session highs of 40.50 +4.52% at the Finale. Equity Bank traded 2.101m shares and Buyers for 2.5x that amount at the Closing Bell. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Ratio of 49 versus 11 at the Close. Equity Bank has rebounded 4.605% over the last 2 trading sessions. Equity Bank is +29.26% in 2014 and the news [which I discovered on my Twitter Time line via @LordGithinji] that ''Equity Bank will on Monday, 26th May 2014 Unveil its MVNO Strategy, report on progress of preparedness and rollout plan'' was likely a Buy side catalyst today. Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.5376% to close at 46.75 and was trading at 47.25 +1.61% session highs at the Finish Line. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 1.783m shares worth 83.616m and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 3 versus 1 which further underpins the price. Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 17.00 and traded 903,100 shares.
National Bank improved 2.34% to close at 32.75 and traded 130,800 shares.
Jubilee Holdings firmed 0.3% to close at 334.00 and was traded shares at a session high of 340.00 +2.1%. Jubilee has rallied strongly and +9.9009% over the last 4 weeks.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL retreated 2.45% to close at 279.00 and traded 146,100 shares. EABL rallied sharply and 15.267% 4 weeks through the middle of this month. Subsequently EABL has ticked 7.615% lower as some Longs probably had hoped for a faster Senator reprieve. The Price correction has now run its course.
Unga firmed 0.8547% to close at 29.50 and was trading at 32.00 +9.4% at the Closing Bell. Unga is +65.22% in 2014.
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