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と〜ちゃん® @tochandesu 東京のゲリラ豪雨がやばい Tokyo Storm
“All cruel people describe themselves as paragons of frankness.”
― Tennessee Williams
“I don't want realism. I want magic!”
― Tennessee Williams, A Streetcar Named Desire
“The violets in the mountains have broken the rocks.”
― Tennessee Williams, Camino Real
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.3650 within sight of a three-month low of $1.3634 set on Wednesday.
Dollar Index 80.25
Japan Yen 101.76
Swiss Franc 0.8948
India Rupee 58.505 India’s rupee headed for a fourth weekly gain, the
longest winning streak in more than a year
The rupee was steady today after touching 58.3700, the strongest level
since June 18, 2013. It has rallied 3.2 percent since April 30.
South Korea Won 1023.73
Brazil Real 2.2158
Egypt Pound 7.1308
South Africa Rand 10.3484
The euro has fallen 0.3 percent since May 16, extending a 1.3 percent
decline in the previous two weeks. The yen is set for a 0.3 percent
The euro fell 1.25 percent in the past month versus a basket of nine
other developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes, the worst performance within the gauge after the Swiss
franc’s 1.32 percent slide. The yen climbed 0.9 percent, while the
dollar added 0.1 percent.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.25
Financial data firm Markit, meanwhile, said its preliminary or "flash"
U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.2 in May from
55.4 in April
U.S. Treasury yields edged up on the data with the benchmark yield
briefly hitting a 1-1/2 week high of 2.57 percent.
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3650 [an outside objective is 1.3380]
ECB President Mario Draghi said this month officials are ready to ease
monetary policy in June, citing the euro’s strength as “cause for
serious concern.” Policy makers next meet on June 5.
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.76
China’s central bank chief admits difficulties with Africa @FT @Javierblas2
Beijing has made a rare and candid admission of the difficulties in
its economic relationship with Africa, with one of the country’s top
financial officials describing some Sino-African deals as “not so
good, not so satisfactory”.
The comments by Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank,
appear part of a much broader effort by Beijing to recalibrate its
economic and trade relations with Africa in response to growing
criticism inside and outside the continent.
“Different entities have behaved differently. There may have been some
phenomena of Chinese investors [that were] not so good, not so
satisfactory,” Mr Zhou said.
The comments are among the most forthright by senior Chinese officials
about troubles in their country’s relationship with the continent,
although Mr Zhou did not elaborate about specific deals.
China-Africa trade has surged over the past decade, reaching $200bn
last year, up from $10bn in 2000 and $1bn in 1980, according to
customs data. About 2,500 Chinese companies have established
themselves in Africa over the last two decades.
Li Keqiang, Chinese premier, acknowledged during his first trip to the
continent earlier this month that the relationship between Beijing and
its African partners had suffered “growing pains”. But he rejected
accusations that Beijing was pursuing a neocolonialist policy in
Africa seeking the continent’s commodities.
Mr Zhou made his comments after he signed a $2bn deal with the African
Development Bank, Beijing’s first ever departure from its “cheque
book” policy of multibillion-dollar bilateral deals on the continent.
The new fund will open contracts to the most suitable bidder rather
than just to Chinese companies.
Western countries have in the past criticised what they describe as
Beijing’s “cheque book” policy of lending money to African countries
to largely benefit its own construction groups, which have built
everything from roads to hospitals on the continent. African officials
have complained about the poor quality of some of the Chinese-built
infrastructure and the use of migrant labour from China rather than
Mr Zhou said the new “Africa growing together” fund was
“supplementary” to traditional Chinese lending to the continent, which
until now has been channelled exclusively into grants, bilateral loans
and infrastructure projects financed by Chinese state-owned banks.
“[The fund] provides new flexibility and arenas to operate.”
Deborah Brautigam, an expert on China-Africa relations at Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote that the new
fund was a “huge change”.
“While the multilateral banks are not immune from corruption and
embezzlement challenges, they do have stakeholders that try to hold
them accountable in a transparent process,” she said. “That has not
been the case with the Chinese policy banks.”
Despite the latest multilateral move, China’s bilateral engagement
with Africa remains far larger – and it continues to grow. Mr Li
announced during his trip that Beijing would increase its bilateral
credit lines to African countries by $10bn, bringing the total to
$30bn for 2013-15. He also announced another $2bn for infrastructure.
Malawi's ruling People Party has found "serious irregularities" in the
counting and announcement of results from the southern African
nation's May 20 election, President Joyce Banda said on Thursday,
raising fears of a disputed outcome and violence.
Reports included hackers breaking in to Malawi Election Commission
(MEC) computers and ballot tallies exceeding the number of registered
voters in some constituencies, prompting Banda to demand a manual
"It has come to my attention that there are some serious
irregularities in the counting and announcement of results in some
parts of the country," Banda said in a statement.
"I call upon the Malawi Electoral Commission to carry out an immediate
manual audit of the whole process," she added, urging Malawi's 13
million people to remain calm during the delay.
The MEC said late on Wednesday it was abandoning its digital results
platform, fuelling suspicions of skulduggery after a catalogue of
mishaps surrounding the poll.
The only result released so far - a partial tally put out by the
private Zodiak radio station - gave opposition Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) leader Peter Mutharika, the brother of late President
Bingu wa Mutharika, a narrow lead.
However, the People Party of Banda, who took over as president after
Bingu wa Mutharika's death in office two years ago, disputed the
interim total and said the count had been compromised.
"We have reason to believe that the Malawi Electoral Commission
digital election management platform has been hacked by some suspected
DPP operatives," PP spokesman Wakuda Kamanga said a statement.
Mutharika said police and soldiers had been sent to his residence in
the capital, Lilongwe, to search for a "hacking machine" but were
refused entry because they had no warrant.
"What we want as DPP is a free and fair election. We know that Joyce
Banda is trying to intimidate me by sending the army and making claims
of rigging," he told reporters. "That is nonsense."
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.40% Fresh All Time Highs
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3486
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1312
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +30.53% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]
8,727.54 +100.57 +1.17%
if the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe
votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -1.11% 2014
the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NSE ASI) – has risen by
11.7 per cent since May 2013, despite having fallen by 6.7 per cent
In the case of the largest African economy, whose weight in the MSCI
FM is close to 15 per cent, the story is pretty much the same. Despite
Sanusi’s suspension, widespread corruption and some recent restrictive
decisions by the Nigerian Central Bank, the Nigerian Stock Exchange
All-Share Index (NSE ASI) – has risen by 11.7 per cent since May 2013,
despite having fallen by 6.7 per cent this year.
The recent bombings in Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm
the potency of asymmetric risks. African markets have taken these
risks in their stride. They might stumble if these asymmetric risks
ratchet higher. 22-APR-2014
#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica 's #Nairobi on the 19th Floor [and
asymmetric risks] 241 days ago
@BBCAfrica Boko Haram Map of Attacks
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.50% 2014
The cedi retreated 1.4 percent to 2.9975 per dollar as of 12:30 p.m.
in Accra, the capital, heading to breach 3 per dollar for the first
time since it was rebased in 2007
The cedi retreated 1.4 percent to 2.9975 per dollar as of 12:30 p.m.
in Accra, the capital, heading to breach 3 per dollar for the first
time since it was rebased in 2007, when four zeroes were removed. The
currency of the world’s second-largest cocoa producer declined 21
percent this year, the worst performer among 24 African currencies
tracked by Bloomberg.
“Their fiscal balance is really not doing well and then at the same
time their exports aren’t doing well,” Celeste Fauconnier, an Africa
analyst at FirstRand Ltd.’s Rand Merchant Bank, said by phone from
Johannesburg. “That is affecting the current account which in turn is
affecting the cedi.”
Ghana has been struggling to curb spending since its fiscal deficit
ballooned to 12.1 percent of gross domestic product before 2012
elections. The gap will probably exceed 10 percent of GDP for a third
consecutive year in 2014, Moody’s Investors Service said in February.
Ghana has a B rating at Standard & Poor’s, five steps below investment
grade, with a negative outlook, while Fitch Ratings lowered its
assessment to negative from stable in April, five months after
downgrading the rating one level to B.
Yields on the nation’s Eurobonds due August 2023, which started
trading at about 8 percent when they were sold more than eight months
ago, rose 1 basis point to 8.75 percent today. The cedi has weakened
every year since Bloomberg began tracking it in 1994.
Ghana placed limits on dollar withdrawals and transfers to stem the
cedi’s slide in February, while the central bank held interest rates
at 18 percent on April 2 after increasing borrowing costs by 200 basis
points, or two percentage points, in February. Finance Minister Seth
Terkper cut fuel subsidies last year as the country increased water
and electricity prices. Last month, Terkper said he plans to reduce
the government’s wage bill, which absorbs more than 70 percent of tax
income, to narrow the budget gap.
28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel
3. Rising fiscal imbalances in some countries. This for me remains the
Achilles’ Heel. The IMF said: “In a few cases, policy missteps, such
as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won
macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. In
addition, important home-grown risks arise from fiscal vulnerabilities
in a number of countries such as Ghana and Zambia.’’ Ghana’s cedi has
been in free-fall and the Zambian kwacha not far behind. The price the
markets are exacting for ‘policy mis- steps’ is brutal.
But commenting on the “disappointing” performance in Africa in the last quarter, he said: “We do not see Q4 as evidence of a new pattern emerging in Africa, so our growth ambitions remain strong for Africa.” SABMiller FT Subscriber
However, growth was “hampered by poor economic fundamentals” in South
Sudan and Zimbabwe. Nigeria meanwhile saw “double-digit lager volume
Barclays, ex-boss Diamond compete for Africa's banking promise
LONDON/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Gaborone and Lusaka are the unlikely
settings for a battle between one of the world's most famous
investment bankers and his former firm over the future of African
American banker Bob Diamond last week unveiled plans to raise $400
million to double the war chest of his African venture Atlas Mara and
set him up to buy more banks.
This was just five days after Barclays, the British bank where Diamond
was chief executive before he was ousted in 2012, announced the
dismantling of the investment bank he built up and pinpointed Africa
as one of its two main growth engines.
The prize both are chasing is sub-Saharan Africa's mostly unbanked 1
billion population and the companies there looking for capital to
grow. Economies are growing on average at 5-7 percent a year, the
fastest expansion in a generation, offering lucrative returns for
lenders who get it right.
"It's ripe for entry," said Keith Jefferis, a former deputy governor
at Botswana's central bank and now managing director at Econsult, a
consultancy in Botswana's capital Gaborone.
"If you operate efficiently and pick up market share then potentially
it's a very profitable strategy, but there is a lot of fragmentation.
Each country has different systems so it’s very management intensive,
but openings are there."
Diamond has already bought a platform in Botswana, Mozambique,
Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Rwanda. Barclays wants to be a top
three bank in South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Botswana and Zambia and also
operates in seven other countries.
New technology, in particular a mobile banking boom, should help banks
spread further and reach more customers at far lower cost than in the
Diamond has teamed up with Africa-based entrepreneur Ashish Thakkar to
set up Atlas Mara, with the intention of building it into Africa's
leading financial services firm.
They spent most of a $325 million initial fundraising to buy BancABC
in March, and will use the extra $400 million to get a deeper and
Less than a third of sub-Saharan Africans have bank accounts, and an
even lower percentage of firms hold a loan or line of credit.
As well as huge untapped markets, margins are attractive, with the
spread between borrowing and lending rates over 10 percent in many
countries, compared to 2 percent or less in many western countries.
Barclays said its Africa business made a return on equity of 8-9
percent last year, below what it costs to raise capital, but it
expects to improve that.
One investor in Atlas Mara said he expected Diamond to deliver a
return on equity of 20 percent or more and pursue "an M&A strategy" in
the company's early years.
"There's high growth in Africa and it's an underpenetrated market. It
should also have a cost of capital advantage over the domestic banks,
which is very significant and if he (Diamond) executes well it will
only get stronger over time," the investor said, who asked not to be
named as Atlas Mara is raising funds.
Two U.S. hedge funds are the biggest early backers for Atlas Mara.
Clough Capital, based in Boston with $4.7 billion in assets, has a
10.8 percent stake, and Owl Creek Asset Management, a $4 billion hedge
fund based in New York, has an 8 percent stake, according to
Diamond's co-founder Thakkar runs conglomerate Mara Group with IT,
manufacturing and real estate businesses across 19 African countries,
and Atlas Mara Chairman Arnold Ekpe was CEO of Togo-based Ecobank
Transactional between 1996 and 2001 and from 2005 to 2012.
Diamond has also poached John Vitalo, a former U.S. marine who has
headed Barclays' Middle East and North Africa region for the past five
years and previously led its African investment bank arm, to become
chief executive. [ID:nL6N0N00ZZ]
Atlas Mara shares were suspended after its purchase of BancABC was
treated as a reverse takeover, and are expected to relist in the next
two months, probably with a market value of about $800 million. The
shares last traded at $11.40, up from their December IPO price of $10.
Barclays, Standard Chartered and Citigroup are the biggest overseas
banks in sub-Saharan Africa, although others are active in selling
government bonds and catering to companies - which will remain the
main focus of most international banks.
New technology has encouraged several domestic banks to grow
regionally, including South Africa's Standard Bank, Nigeria's United
Bank for Africa and Ecobank.
Chinese lenders also stepped in to fund infrastructure projects when
some European lenders retreated during the financial crisis, and ICBC
has taken a 20 percent stake in Standard Bank.
Ecobank, which operates in 35 countries, has been seen as a possible
target for Diamond, although industry sources said he is more likely
to be attracted by smaller banks that would be less of a turnaround
task and could be integrated with BancABC.
Jenkins, meanwhile, is keen to increase the slice of revenue that
comes from outside South Africa.
Barclays, which has 45,000 staff and 12 million customers in Africa,
made a 1 billion pound profit there last year. Although its returns
are short of target, the Africa business required 4 billion pounds of
capital, or 8 percent of the group total, while it accounted for 16
percent of profit, adding to its attraction at a time when capital is
Fuad Shongole said in a speech broadcast on the rebels' radio station that al-Shabab fighters would carry out jihad, or holy war, in Kenya and Uganda "and afterward, with God's will, to America."
"America is waging a war in the Horn of Africa because they are
responsive to the Quran verses saying that the Islamic flag will fly
in every corner of the world," Shongole said, referring to Islam's
U.S. officials have long feared that Somali-Americans who left the
U.S. to join the extremist fighters could travel back to the United
States to carry out terror attacks. Senior al-Shabab leaders have
rarely, if ever, publicly threatened to carry out attacks in the U.S.
The threat comes amid a heightening of security by the U.S. Embassy in
"We swear by the almighty Allah that we'll move the war into Kenya, so
let's see who suffers most," said Shongole, who spoke before a noisy
crowd of supporters. "If one Somali girl is killed by their soldiers
in Somalia, we shall murder their girls at home."
Mogadishu (AFP) - Somalia's Al-Qaeda linked Shebab vowed Thursday to
move their war to neighbouring Kenya, one of the top commanders said
in broadcast urging fighters to launch attacks.
"The war will be shifting to Kenya, if they kill a Somali girl we kill
a Kenyan girl," Fuad Mohamed Khalaf, one of the Shebab's most senior
commanders, said in a radio broadcast.
"We are urging all the Muslims in Kenya... to fight the government of
Kenya inside that country, because Kenyans killed your people
including children," Khalaf said in a speech broadcast on the Shebab's
"When their soldiers and war planes kill your people, God permits you
to retaliate accordingly, we will fight the Kenyans," Khalf said,
viewed as second in importance only to Shebab chief Ahmed Abdi Godane.
The Shebab, who claimed responsiblity for the September 2013 attack on
Nairobi's Westgate mall in which at least 67 people were killed, have
also been blamed for a string of grenade blasts and killings.
Last week a double bomb attack in a Nairobi market left 10 people dead
and scores wounded, while the United States has said it was preparing
to cut staff levels in Kenya because of the mounting threat of
The Shebab said it was their guerillas who carried out a deadly ambush
on an army convoy in Kenya's northeastern Mandera region on Monday,
close to the border with Somalia.
Khalaf said the Shehab had trained fighters and vowed more would be
sent to carry out attacks inside Kenya.
"We have trained the people... they are the ones who carried out the
Mandera attack," he said. "More are going to be sent soon."
The United States have offered a $5 million bounty for Khalaf, who
holds both Somali and Swedish nationality.
19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber
Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;
‘’When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what’s left is
terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic
poem, the bedtime story.”
Grenade attack on police vehicle wounds two in Kenya's Mombasa
Officers had just picked up two suspects after getting information
they were planning an unspecified crime, Mombasa county commissioner
Nelson Marwa told journalists at the scene.
As the car left "their accomplice threw a grenade which exploded
behind the police vehicle," he added.
Earlier in the evening, the government's National Disaster Operations
Centre had said the blast was caused by an improvised explosive
The Kenya Shilling was last trading at 87.843 and below the key 88.00
Level which was breached momentarily this week.
This Period of the year is one of secular weakness for the Shilling as
Full Year Dividends get up streamed to Parent Companies.
Nerves are frayed on the security side as well and this has added a
further weaker tone.
If 88.00 holds [which I expect it to do] then i can see the Shilling
snapping back below 87 as everyone factors in the Liquidity from the
Sale of our first international Eurobond.
The Cabinet Secretary announced a Green Light in this regard from
Kigali earlier this week.
The Closing Data has not been received as I file this.
Equity Turnover clocked 482.23m with Big Cap Banks seeing the Lion's
share of activity and a strong feature.
Kakuzi hit a record High and is +52.63% this year and a part of Small
Cap Outperformance at the Exchange in 2014.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Kakuzi rallied 9.68% [the daily maximum] to close at an All Time High
of 145.00. Kakuzi is +52.63% in 2014 and has led the Re-Pricing higher
of this Niche post the bidding war for Rea Vipingo. That Exercise has
proven and properly so a bullish Catalyst for prices in the
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom eased 0.3846% to close at 12.95 on scratchy volume of 2.74m
shares. Safaricom was locked at 13.00 for most of the session. The
Full Year Earnings Release will see Safaricom trend higher from here.
The Price is underwritten below 13.00.
longhorn Kenya traded 10,200 shares all at 14.00 +4.87%.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
CFC Stanbic was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange today and closed unchanged at 144.00 and traded 682,300
shares worth 98.397m. CFC Stanbic has rallied a blistering +65.51% in
2014 and trades on a Trailing PE of 11.103.
Equity Bank rallied 2.58% to close at 39.75 and was trading at session
highs of 40.50 +4.52% at the Finale. Equity Bank traded 2.101m shares
and Buyers for 2.5x that amount at the Closing Bell. Buyers outpaced
Sellers by a Ratio of 49 versus 11 at the Close. Equity Bank has
rebounded 4.605% over the last 2 trading sessions. Equity Bank is
+29.26% in 2014 and the news [which I discovered on my Twitter Time
line via @LordGithinji] that ''Equity Bank will on Monday, 26th May
2014 Unveil its MVNO Strategy, report on progress of preparedness and
rollout plan'' was likely a Buy side catalyst today.
Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.5376% to close at 46.75 and was trading
at 47.25 +1.61% session highs at the Finish Line. Kenya Commercial
Bank traded 1.783m shares worth 83.616m and Buyers outpaced Sellers by
a Factor of 3 versus 1 which further underpins the price.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 17.00 and traded 903,100 shares.
National Bank improved 2.34% to close at 32.75 and traded 130,800 shares.
Jubilee Holdings firmed 0.3% to close at 334.00 and was traded shares
at a session high of 340.00 +2.1%. Jubilee has rallied strongly and
+9.9009% over the last 4 weeks.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
EABL retreated 2.45% to close at 279.00 and traded 146,100 shares.
EABL rallied sharply and 15.267% 4 weeks through the middle of this
month. Subsequently EABL has ticked 7.615% lower as some Longs
probably had hoped for a faster Senator reprieve. The Price correction
has now run its course.
Unga firmed 0.8547% to close at 29.50 and was trading at 32.00 +9.4%
at the Closing Bell. Unga is +65.22% in 2014.