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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 26th of May 2014

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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I am looking forward to being in Maputo for the Government of Mozambique and the IMF conference May 29th-30th @IMFNews

The Government of Mozambique and the IMF will convene a high-level
conference in 2014 to take stock of Africa's strong economic
performance, its increased resilience to shocks, and the key ongoing
economic policy challenges. The Africa Rising conference will be held
May 29-30, 2014, in Maputo. The event is intended to follow up on the
2009 Tanzania Conference, which helped galvanize international support
for Africa after the 2008 financial crisis.

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GREETINGS from the @SerenaHotels Polana, Maputo. I can confirm that Maputo is the land of wonderful and flavoursome tiger prawns. Maputo Boom Town June 4th 2012

The Architecture is also deliciously retro. By the way, the Polana was
built in 1922 and the flavour is fabulously Riviera and very swanky.
It is less than 4 hours by plane from Nairobi and surely set to be the
most of in things and places to visit.

Of course, Mozambique has popped large onto the global radar because
of gas reserves that have been discovered offshore and in the deep
sea. I have said before, that I believe the eastern seaboard of Africa
is clearly the last great energy prize in the c21st and I believe this
lake of hydrocarbons stretches from Mozambique up through
Tanzania,Kenya and Somalia. We remain in the early stage of this
discovery process but Mozambique is further along the curve.

Mozambique is the next Qatar.

read more

Christine @Lagarde MD @IMFNews at #Mindspeak @YouTube

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I thank Marco Silvi of the Italian Embassy for a lovely dinner Friday.

Marco is a very accomplished Host and an Epicurean.

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Far-right parties sweep EU polls @AJEnglish
Law & Politics

Far-right and anti-European Union parties have made sweeping gains in
the European parliament election.

Voters in 21 of the EU's 28 nations went to the polls on Sunday,
choosing politicians for the bloc's 751-seat legislature.

The other seven countries in the bloc had already voted in a sprawling
exercise of democracy that began on Thursday in Britain and the

One of the most significant winners was France's far-right National
Front party, which was the outright winner in France with 26 percent
support or 4.1m votes.

The anti-immigration, anti-EU party should win about 25 of France's 74
seats in the parliament, according to average results from five
polling institutes published on Sunday. The party currently holds
three seats.

Marine Le Pen, the National Front's leader, said: "The people have
spoken loud and clear. They no longer want to be led by those outside
our borders, by EU commissioners and technocrats who are unelected."

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, in an impassioned televised
speech, called the National Front win "serious, very serious for
France, for Europe".

"It's an earthquake," said Manuel Valls, the French Socialist prime
minister brought in by President Francois Hollande barely two months
ago after the party suffered a similar rout in local elections.

France's National Front was not the only party benefiting from
widespread disillusionment with the EU.

Nigel Farage, leader of Britain's fiercely anti-EU UKIP party, looked
set to score an historic victory over both the Conservatives and

"I don't just want Britain to leave the European Union," Farage said,
"I want Europe to leave the European Union".

Official results announced with only Scotland and Northern Ireland
left to declare had UKIP with about 27 percent of the vote, some 10
percent higher than the most recent European election in 2009 and with
23 seats. David Cameron's Conservatives and Labour both won 18 seats.

The anti-immigration and anti-EU Danish People's Party won its
country's EU election, snaring 26.7 percent of the vote and four of
Denmark's 13 seats.

Exit polls in Sweden showed the Feminist Initiative Party entering the
EU parliament for the first time, backed by 7 percent of Swedes. The
Green Party surged to 17.1 percent from 11 percent in 2009 and the
far-right Sweden democrats won 7 percent support compared to 3.3
percent in 2009.

While Greece's left-wing opposition Syriza party succeeded in
capturing 26.6 percent of the Greek vote on its anti-austerity
platform, the country's extreme right Golden Dawn party was third in
the count with 9.4 percent. Golden Dawn, a former neo-Nazi
organisation whose leader and members are to face trial for criminal
acts including murder, arson and extortion, will send three
representatives to the European parliament.

Austria's far-right Freedom Party advanced to take 20 percent of the
vote with an anti-immigrant campaign that called for halving Vienna's
EU contributions and demanded a referendum on the EU's crucial bailout

The right-wing anti-immigration party in the Netherlands, Gurt
Wilders' Freedom Party, however, was a surprise failure, winning just
12.2 percent of the vote and just three seats, compared with 17
percent in 2009.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives claimed victory
with 35.3 percent of the vote, despite strong gains for the
centre-left Social Democrats. A new anti-EU party, the Alternative for
Germany made its debut into the parliament, polling 7 per cent.

Despite the anti-EU, or so-called Eurosceptic gains, established
pro-EU parties were forecast to remain the biggest group in the

The conservative caucus, known as EPP, was set to win 211 seats, down
from 274, but enough to remain the largest group.

The estimated turnout by the 400m eligible voters was narrowly up from
2009, at 43.1 percent.

The European parliament's members have a say in approving all EU laws
and also in appointing a new EU commission president.


Europe turns right.

 Russia-China Gas Deal Concerning: Harvard's Kaplan [US triangulated
by Russia and China]


China and Japan trade blame over fighter jets


Japan and China have traded accusations after China scrambled fighter
jets when Japanese military aircraft entered an air defence zone
declared by Beijing over the East China Sea.

China's defence ministry said on Sunday that two Japanese planes
entered the defence zone the previous day during a joint military
drill with the Chinese and Russian navies.

A ministry statement demanded that Japan stop all reconnaissance and
interference activities.

"Japanese military planes intruded on the exercise's airspace without
permission and carried out dangerous actions, in a serious violation
of international laws and standards, which could have easily caused a
misunderstanding and even led to a mid-air accident," the statement

China declared its air defence zone last year despite protests by
Japan and the United States.

According to Tokyo's defence ministry, a Japanese surveillance
aircraft OP-3C was approached closely by a Chinese fighter jet on the
same day.

Shortly after, Tokyo claimed that another Chinese fighter jet came as
close as 30 metres to another Japanese aircraft, the AP news agency

"This time, it is completely out of ordinary that they came so close
to our aircraft which was flying over the international sea. I really
think this was totally out of line action," said Itsunori Onodera,
Japanese defence minister.


Its all very finely calibrated and a Game of Cat and Mouse.

China stays on an incremental course and just below the radar of an
American Hand being forced.

The Question re Japan is around the leash.

And Japan evidently were seeking to re confirm that the Pivot has not
been defanged

02-DEC-2013 The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs


PRESIDENT Barack Obama's pivot to Asia bared its fangs last week.

China had declared an Air Defense Identification Zone in an area that
included those rocky Islands which are called the Senkakus by the
Japanese and Diaoyu by the Chinese. The US responded to the
declaration of the ADIZ by flying 2 B-52s directly into it and that
message is kind of incontestable.

The US probably feels it holds a decisive hard power advantage at this
moment and given that the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that
decisive advantage leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has a
logic and momentum of its own. Therefore, I see the US being
increasingly determined to press its advantage.



The Snake by @Aiww @Hirshhorn [best symbolises the ''policy of containment'']


Japan will continue surveillance activities around its waters after
Chinese jets made a "dangerous" approach to its intelligence-gathering
planes, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said today.


Chinese Su-27 fighter jets armed with missiles came within about 30
meters (100 feet) of one Japan Self-Defense Forces plane and about 50
meters of another on May 24, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera told
reporters yesterday.

The incident was the closest recorded encounter between Chinese and
Japanese military planes since the founding of the People's Republic
of China in 1949, according to Ni Lexiong, director of national
defense policy research at Shanghai University of Political Science
and Law.

It's a well-known fact now that creating a humanitarian crisis in
Syria, whether real or fabricated, and holding the Syrian government
responsible for it as a casus belli for foreign military intervention
under the UN 2005 so-called "responsibility to protect" initiative was
from the very beginning of the Syrian conflict the goal


Pope Francis visits Israel's separation barrier in Bethlehem. Photograph: AP


It is an image that will define Pope Francis's first official visit to
the Holy Land. Head bowed in prayer, the leader of the Catholic church
pressed his palm against the graffiti-covered concrete of Israel's
imposing "separation wall", a Palestinian girl holding a flag by his
side. It was, as his aides conceded later, a silent statement against
a symbol of division and conflict.


I think @Pontifex is plain compelling.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3620 The euro declined 0.1 percent to $1.3619 at 6:06 a.m. in
London after falling to $1.3615, the weakest since Feb. 13.
Dollar Index 80.41
Japan Yen 101.92
Swiss Franc 0.8966
Pound 1.6841
Aussie 0.9238
India Rupee 58.532 within 0.3 percent of an 11-month High
South Korea Won 1024.05
Brazil Real 2.2223
Egypt Pound 7.1376
South Africa Rand 10.3270

The euro has declined 1.5 percent in the past month, the worst
performer after the Swiss franc of 10 developed-nation currencies
tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar gained
0.3 percent and the yen advanced 0.5 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.41 [being lifted by Euro weakness]


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3620 [lower still because
Draghi fires in June]


The euro has declined since touching a 2 1/2-year high of $1.3993 on
May 8, when Draghi said he was comfortable with adding stimulus as
soon as next month, denting demand for the currency. The ECB next
meets on June 5.

"The best hope for some life later today resides with a keynote speech
from ECB President Mario Draghi. Markets will be looking for more
clues as to what may be on offer following next Thursday's ECB Council
meeting," he said.

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.92


S&P 500 Chart and at a record above 1,900 Yahoo Finance


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1292.44 [trades without conviction]


Gold for August delivery traded at $1,293.30 an ounce on the Comex in
New York from $1,291.90 on May 23. Investors cut their net-long
positions on gold for a second straight week to 90,358 contracts in
the week ended May 20, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 104.02 [expensive but can get to 105.50+]


WTI for July delivery decreased as much as 35 cents, or 0.3 percent,
to $104 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. The U.S. benchmark crude traded at a discount of $6.05 to
Brent. The spread closed at $6.19 on May 23, the narrowest in five

There will be no floor trading in New York today because of the U.S.
Memorial Day holiday and transactions will be booked tomorrow for
settlement purposes.

read more

Narendra Modi will be sworn in as India's prime minister today in a ceremony that his Pakistani counterpart will attend
Emerging Markets

Indian President Pranab Mukherjee will preside over the event, due to
start 6 p.m. at the colonial-era presidential place in New Delhi.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will join heads of state or
representatives from the eight-nation South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation. As a goodwill gesture, Sri Lanka and Pakistan
plan to release more than 150 Indian fishermen, who had been taken
into custody after allegedly straying into foreign territorial waters.

"It has been a greatly symbolic week of thawing tensions in South
Asia," said B.G. Verghese, visiting professor at the Centre for Policy
Research in New Delhi. "First the invitations, their confirmation and
then the release of prisoners -- these are all great first steps that
should have been made long ago. Now the pressure is on Modi and all of
the SAARC leaders to deliver so these don't end up as empty gestures."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Maldives President Abdulla Yameen, Sri
Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Nepal Prime Minister Sushil
Koirala, Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, Mauritius Prime
Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam and Shirin Chaudhury, Bangladesh
parliamentary speaker, will attend.

Sartaj Aziz, Sharif's adviser, and other officials will accompany him,
Mohiyuddin Wani, the Pakistani prime minister's press secretary, said
in a May 24 phone interview from Islamabad. Bilateral talks after the
swearing in will be the first face-to-face meeting between the
nations' leaders since September.

India Rupee 1 Year Chart INO 58.56 [My Target remains 57.50]


India Bombay Sensex ^BSESN at record highs Yahoo Finance


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Al Shabaab attacks Somali parliament, at least 10 dead

The attack started with a car bomb at a gate to the heavily fortified
parliament compound, followed by a suicide bombing and then a gun
battle that continued for hours.

"We are behind the suicide bombing, explosions and the fighting inside
the so-called Somali parliament house, and still heavy fighting is
going on inside," said the al Shabaab spokesman.

The diplomat said the attack showed that a surge by the African Union
peacekeeping troops had not weakened al Shabaab's capacity to wage
asymmetric warfare in the capital, where coordination between Somali
and foreign intelligence agencies is poor.

"Because intelligence is fragmented, al Shabaab is slipping through
the net," said the diplomat. "They are becoming more dangerous."

In neighboring Djibouti, at least two people were killed on Saturday
in double grenade blasts at a busy restaurant popular with Westerners
in Djibouti, police said.

A proliferation of "complex attacks"- using a combination of gunmen
and suicide bombers - strikes on government buildings, and perhaps
even targeted assassinations against Kenyan politicians and security
forces officials may be in Kenya's future.


19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber


Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;

''When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what's left is
terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic
poem, the bedtime story."

African spending spree faces punishment by markets


Resource-reliant Ghana and Zambia show how star economic performers
can quickly face the heat. Ghana's cedi and Zambia's kwacha have hit
record lows against the dollar this year as rising spending has
strained state finances.

"It's as if we haven't learnt anything about macroeconomic
management," said Mthuli Ncube, chief economist at the African
Development Bank (AfDB), echoing other delegates at the bank's annual
meeting in Rwanda this week.

"The macro-policies are out of line, whether you are looking at budget
deficits, current account positions, the debt positions and so forth,"
he said.

"Market access for any sovereign seen to have mismanaged its fiscal
affairs might alter quite dramatically," said Standard Chartered's

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.56% [Fresh All Time Highs]


South African airforce jets fly over a statue of Nelson Mandela at
the Union Buildings in Pretoria


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.3263 [10 before 11]


The rand has gained 1.9 percent against the dollar since the beginning
of January after sliding 19 percent last year and was trading at
10.2993 late on May 23.

Zuma Promotes Nhlanhla Nene to South Africa Finance Minister


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1373


"You saw all those people in Tahrir and it was impossible not to
believe it would bring the change we wanted," said Amira


Foreign investors dumped almost all of their 59 billion pounds of
government debt since the start of the unrest in 2011, according to
central bank data. Foreign reserves are around 50 percent of their
December 2010 levels and the stalled economy has bred a wave of
protests and street crime feeding off the absence of police on the

Amira looks at her daughter and son on mattresses and then up at the
poster of El-Sisi.

"Don't deceive us," she said.

read more

Egyptians wave their national flag as army helicopters fly over Cairo's Tahrir Square

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +31.06% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]


8,762.86 +35.32 +0.40%

If the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe
votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.41% 2014


39,833.94 280.95 0.71%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.32% 2014


@harumutasa  May 20 #malawielections2014 army in some areas of
#blantyre to maintain the peace


Malawi president orders election re-run, but decision challenged


President Joyce Banda on Saturday cancelled Malawi's elections citing
fraud and "rampant irregularities" in a decision that triggered
protests and was challenged by the national electoral authority and a
political rival. Banda, who had been standing for re-election, ordered
a new vote within 90 days but said she would no longer be a candidate
to guarantee a credible outcome.

Her decision led to protests at Limbe outside the commercial hub of
Blantyre, where demonstrators smashed shops, police said.

"I, Dr. Joyce Banda, President of the Republic of Malawi, in exercise
of the powers conferred by section 88 (2) of the Constitution, hereby
issue this Proclamation nullifying all on-going processes in relation
to the 2014 Tripartite Elections," Banda said in her broadcast.

She cited "fraudulent and rampant irregularities" and ordered that
voting be repeated within 90 days.

Shortly before Banda's announcement, the electoral commission released
preliminary results showing opposition Democratic Progressive Party
candidate Peter Mutharika leading with 42 percent of the vote,
followed by Banda with 23 percent. This was based on 30 percent of the
total votes counted.

Malawi's High Court has rejected a decision by President Joyce Banda
to annul this week's general election


Madonna has seized on political chaos in Malawi to attack its
president, Joyce Banda, claiming to have witnessed "the depths of
corruption" in her government.


The American singer, whose school-building charity projects have led
to bitter acrimony, spoke out on Saturday after southern Africa's
first female president sought to nullify an election in which she
apparently faces defeat.

"I am so sad to see that because of the actions of their president,
Malawians will continue to suffer," Madonna said. "In my philanthropic
work I have seen the depths of corruption in Malawi's government. I
can only hope that change will come: Malawians deserve so much


Madonna - 4 minutes @YouTube


"I am interested in coming out of the bush to start my party work for
the presidential election," Dhlakama


Mozambique's opposition RENAMO Presidential candidate Afonso
Dhlakama shows an ink dyed finger after voting in the country's
Presidential, Parliamentary and Provincial Elections in Maputo October
28, 2009.


The Tanzania shilling has depreciated 0.6 percent in the past five
days and is East Africa's worst performer this year, falling 4.2


It gained 0.1 percent to 1,660 per dollar by 3:10 in Tanzania's
commercial capital. The currency's run of weekly losses is the longest
since an eight-week period that ended in July 2011.

The nation's external current-account deficit is seen at 13.9 percent
this year, compared with the sub-Saharan African average of 3.6
percent, according to the IMF. That's prompted the government to cut
spending in an effort to meet a target of 5 percent, the IMF said in a
statement dated May 15.

In this photograph people protest against French soldiers after three
people were killed when Muslims with machetes and rifles clashed with
French peacekeeping troops trying to disarm rebels, a rebel spokesman


Goran Tomasevic was covering the conflict in the Central African
Republic. In this photograph people protest against French soldiers
after three people were killed when Muslims with machetes and rifles
clashed with French peacekeeping troops trying to disarm rebels, a
rebel spokesman said

read more

But," he added, "they don't trust that we can do anything about it. I don't think they take us seriously." East African
Kenyan Economy

Mr Mbijiwe said the Western intelligence services "must have shared
with" Kenya any information they have about any looming terror
attacks. "But," he added, "they don't trust that we can do anything
about it. I don't think they take us seriously."

"Kenya's brand equity, as a destination, is at stake and is quite
eroded due to these incidents," Ndegwa said.


"We are here to say Kenya is open for business despite the ongoing challenges."

Tourism is Kenya's second-biggest source of foreign currency after
tea, generating $1.1 billion last year. Arrivals fell by almost a
fifth to 1.4 million last year

The spate of attacks in Kenya has reduced occupancies at companies
including Hemingways Holdings, which has spent $25 million building
hotels in Nairobi, at the coast and in the Masaai Mara region famed
for its safaris, according to Chief Executive Officer Alastair
Addison. From this month, Hemingways shut down its coastal hotel for
six weeks and put staff on leave because of poor bookings, he said in
a May 19 interview.

The attacks come ahead of the Kenya's high season for tourists -- the
end of June, July and August accounts for almost 80 percent of the
industry's annual revenue, Addison said.

"If we lose that a lot of companies will not be able to continue," he
said. "Frankly they will just shut up shop."

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.823


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.623% 2014 [The All Share is 1.879%
below an All Time High of 152.67 from 12th May]


149.80 -0.25 -0.17%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.0282% 2014


4,925.58 +10.52 +0.21%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share retreated 0.26% to close at 149.41.
The All Share has retreated 2.13% since setting an All Time Closing
High of 152.67 on the 12th of May.
The Nairobi NSE20 lost its grip on the 4,900 level for the first time
since April 10th and closed 25.66 points lower at 4,899.92.
Equity Turnover clocked 634.968m.
The Shilling printed 88.00+ Intra day but then clawed back some ground
to trade at 87.844 last.
The Small Cap component of the Securities Exchange has outperformed
this year in what has been an interesting development.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kapchorua Tea rallied 8.33% to close at 156.00 which is a 52 week
High. Kapchorua Tea is +24.8% this year.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Scangroup was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and firmed 0.52% to close at 48.50 and traded 5.389m shares
[1.422% of its shares and a material position] worth 261.404m. This
was Scangroup's most active session in 2014.  Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP
is the majority shareholder as of Q4 2013 and surely underpins the
Price. ScanGroup reported a +22.17% expansion in FY 2013 Earnings per
share and deserves to command a higher premium given that it clearly
is Sorrell's preferred SSA Vehicle.

Safaricom firmed 0.386% to close at 13.00 and traded 2.205m shares
worth 28.701m. Safaricom is +19.815% in 2014, Buyers outpaced Sellers
by a Factor of 2 versus 1 and the price is underwritten here.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

CFC Stanbic Bank eased 1.388% to close at 142.00 and traded strong
volume of 1.113m shares worth 159.183m in what was its 2nd busiest
volume session in 2014. CFC Stanbic rallied 71.264% since the start of
the year through the 14th of this month. CFC Stanbic was overdue a
correction and remains 4.69% below its multi year closing High of
149.00 reached on the 14th of May.

Equity Bank rallied 1.26% to close at 40.25 on the day that the
Management Team laid out their Stall with respect to the Mobile
Virtual Operator license. Equity Bank traded 685,600 shares but there
were Buyers for 400% more shares than were traded during the session,
at the Finish Line, signalling strong Buy Side Interest and further
near term upside traction. Equity Bank is +30.89% in 2014 and most of
that Price Acceleration has happened subsequent to the release of the
news of Equity Bank's successful application for a virtual Mobile
Operator license.

Kenya Commercial Bank rebounded 1.6% to close at 47.50 and traded
225,600 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 5 versus 1 at
the Closing Bell.
Barclays Bank lost ground and 2.0588% to close at 16.65 and traded

Centum eased 0.64% to close at 39.00 and traded 527,100 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL lost ground to close 2.867% lower at 271.00 and traded shares as
low as 252.00 -9.68% during the session. EABL traded 68,100 shares.
EABL has retreated 5.244% over the last 2 sessions. EABL has now
corrected 9.966% since closing at 301.00 a 52 week closing High on
12th May. The Price correction is overcooked now.

Kenya Power [KPLC] ticked 0.34% lower to close at 14.50 and traded
2.084m shares worth 30.228m. KPLC is +2.743% in 2014 and has
materially outperformed KenGen which is -21.4% over the same period.
KenGen eased 0.93% to close at a Fresh 2014 low of 10.65. KenGen
traded 102,400 shares and Sellers outpaced Buyers by a Factor of 2.5
versus 1.

Express Kenya traded 2,000 shares all at 6.25 +9.68% and the Daily
Limit. Express Kenya has rallied +60.25% in 2014 and a Piece of the
outperformance of the Small Caps seen at the Securities Exchange in

Unga surged +8.474% to close at a Fresh multi Year High of 32.00. Unga
has rallied +77.77% in 2014.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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