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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 29th of May 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Africa


#MindSpeak Munir Ahmed, CEO @National_Bank @YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghZN_ZCCP-A

Post #Mindspeak Interview with Munir Ahmed, CEO @National_Bank @YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahXIzikadCc

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Government of Mozambique and the IMF conference May 29th-30th @IMFNews
Africa


The Government of Mozambique and the IMF will convene a high-level
conference in 2014 to take stock of Africa's strong economic
performance, its increased resilience to shocks, and the key ongoing
economic policy challenges. The Africa Rising conference will be held
May 29-30, 2014, in Maputo. The event is intended to follow up on the
2009 Tanzania Conference, which helped galvanize international support
for Africa after the 2008 financial crisis.

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Calling millennials the "most engaged, altruistic, informed, technically advanced and entrepreneurial" generation in history, Coke's chairman and CEO
Africa


"Never before has a generation had more promise, potential or power to
change the world for the better," he told the graduates. "I believe in
you... you have the head and the heart (to go far)."

Here are 10 pieces of advice Kent shared with the class of 2014:

1.    Nothing is more important than personal relationships. "Never
eat alone, never stop making new friendships, and never stop nurturing
those you have."

2.    Stay humble. "Carry your own bags, literally and metaphorically."

3.    Remember that one-time success can be a fluke. "Repeating
success proves your worth."

4.    Build an abiding respect for cash. "Keep some on you at all
times. Never let money become an abstraction."

5.    Learn something new every day.

6.    Keep growing. "Everyone needs growth: nations, companies,
individuals. You're either growing or you are losing ground. There's
no standing still."

7.    Take care of the job at hand.  "The next one will take care of itself."

8.    Reject doubt, fear and cynicism. "All three are corrosive.
Instead, whatever you do, do with all you have. That will make all the
difference."

9.    Remember that a commencement is not an ending, but a beginning.
"The door to the future is swung wide before you. Step through with
confidence and purpose."

10. There's no substitute for excellence and quality. "Pursue both
relentlessly."

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My Tweets when watching @BarackObama make his speech yesterday
Law & Politics


Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu ''We have to see the World as it is''
@BarackObama ''but we should also see World as it should be''
Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu ''The Odds of success are still long''
@BarackObama Iran
Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu  ''Our Ability to shape world opinion''
 @BarackObama its a more diffuse World
Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu  ''We must not create more enemies than
we take off the battlefield'' @BarackObama
Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu  ''The most direct threat to America
remains Terrorism'' @BarackObama
Aly-Khan Satchu @alykhansatchu   ''Just because we have the best
Hammer does not mean every problem is a nail''  @BarackObama
@alykhansatchu ''The World is changing at an accelerating speed'' @BarackObama

Conclusions

President Obama's very hard-nosed approach is more subtle and more
c21st than his any of his predecessors but it does not resonate and is
a little to subtle for Folks who were brought up on ''shock and awe''

For example

Javier Espinosa @javierespinosa2 #Syria in numbers: Inflation reached
173% in 3 years & unemployment rate is approaching 50%, according to a
government report

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@ianbremmer Share of Global Defense Spending
Law & Politics


US             37%
China          11%
Russia         5%
Saudi          3.8%
France        3.5%
UK             3.5%
Germany     2.8%
Japan         2.8%

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This is not an idea. It is a reading of the data. African revenue is going up, the number of educated people in Africa is going up, Africa's transparency and governance is improving
Law & Politics


We are in the business of data, not the business of slogans.

The dominant dynamic in the East China Sea will be of Japan trying to
achieve unity of doctrine and response with the United States for a
contain-China policy, while the PRC will be trying to wedge US and
Japan.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-270514.html

Indeed, the gray zone problem neatly crystallizes the whole problem of
the pivot: that it creates a moral hazard (in Western terms) or
emboldens US allies (the PRC formulation) to engage in reckless
behavior not necessarily advantageous to US interests, specifically
the US interest in not engaging in a scorched earth economic conflict
with the PRC for the sake of some uninhabited rocks.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3593
Dollar Index 80.54
Japan Yen 101.56
Swiss Franc 0.8980
Pound 1.6706
Aussie 0.9286
India Rupee 58.87
South Korea Won 1020.74
Brazil Real 2.2333
Egypt Pound 7.1515
South Africa Rand 10.4785

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.54

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3593

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 101.56

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1253.31 [told you it was going to break down]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 102.79

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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China's overall imports of crude oil jumped 20.8 percent in April on the year to 6.81 million bpd, a record high on a daily basis.
Africa


Angola overtook Saudi Arabia as China's top supplier last month, with
its shipments growing 9.9 percent to 995,000 bpd, and followed by
Saudi Arabia with 939,000 bpd, down 23.7 percent.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.04% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.4785

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1515

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Easing Egypt Debt Risk Shows Investors Favor El-Sisi Victory
Africa


To gauge how Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi's likely victory in
this week's Egyptian presidential election is winning over investors,
look no further than the country's creditworthiness.

The cost of insuring the nation's debt fell to the lowest since July
2011 this month, according to data provider CMA. It was at 348 basis
points today, about half its level in the run-up to the 2012
presidential race, in which the Islamist Mohamed Mursi beat 12
contenders into office.

Since Mursi was ousted July 3, the military-backed interim government
has attracted billions of dollars in aid from the Persian Gulf and has
promised reforms to cut the Middle East's highest budget deficit and
boost investment. Egypt's default-swap contracts, now priced at about
half for those of similarly-rated Pakistan, may signal improving
investor sentiment and better prospects for the most populous Arab
state to tap international capital markets.

"Investors view an El-Sisi win as a near certainty that would bring
about more stability in Egypt and, going forward, this can generate
some sort of economic resurgence," Farouk Soussa, London-based chief
Middle East economist at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd., said by phone
May 22. "The way they see Egypt is that it's going to give you a
decent return and is less likely now to blow up in your face."

The yield on the government's 5.75 percent Eurobonds due in April 2020
fell less than one basis point to 4.96 percent as of 2:46 p.m. in
Cairo, the lowest since December 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg
show.

The benchmark EGX 30 Index of stocks slipped 0.3 percent yesterday
from an almost six-year high, paring gains in the past six months to
40 percent, the best performing equity gauge worldwide after Dubai,
the data show. The stock market is closed today for a public holiday
announced by the government last night to encourage people to vote.

The commission in charge of supervising the election extended voting
by one hour to 10 p.m. today, saying they may keep stations open
beyond that if necessary "depending on conditions at each polling
station."

Unofficial results are expected to start streaming in overnight as
vote counts are completed at each station. The official result will be
announced by June 5, Nile News reported today.

Egypt's economy will probably grow 2.5 percent this year, up from 2.1
percent in 2013, according the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey
of economists. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have
pledged about $15 billion in aid.

"Aid inflows from the Gulf have substantially improved Egypt's debt
fundamentals, as have the ever more convincing signs that a new
political order is finally coalescing," Simon Williams, chief
economist for the Middle East and North Africa at HSBC Holdings Plc in
Dubai, said by phone yesterday. "Should that be reversed, that will
necessarily reflect on the country's credit fundamentals."

The extra yield investors demand to own Egypt's dollar debt rather
than U.S. Treasuries dropped five basis points to 349 on May 22, the
lowest level since August 2011, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
indexes. Egypt's dollar bonds have returned 14 percent this year,
compared with a 7.3 percent average gain for developing nations
worldwide, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +27.69% 2014 Africa's best in 2014
Africa


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.72% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

 "We're being tweeted into combat," an anonymous military official
informs NBC News.

http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5757112/bringbackourgirls-us-military-action-nigeria

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.86% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Ghana's cedi retreated to a record low, falling past 3 per dollar for
the first time

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-27/ghanaian-cedi-retreats-below-3-for-first-time-in-record-slump.html

The currency of the world's second-biggest cocoa producer weakened 2.3
percent to 3.025 per dollar by 3:46 p.m. in Accra, the capital. That's
the biggest drop in the world today after Somali shilling among more
than 150 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Its year-to-date loss of 21
percent is the worst in Africa.

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28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel
Africa


3. Rising fiscal imbalances in some countries. This for me remains the
Achilles' Heel. The IMF said: "In a few cases, policy missteps, such
as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won
macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. In
addition, important home-grown risks arise from fiscal vulnerabilities
in a number of countries such as Ghana and Zambia.'' Ghana's cedi has
been in free-fall and the Zambian kwacha not far behind. The price the
markets are exacting for 'policy mis- steps' is brutal.
4. Security conditions remain difficult, in some areas threatening
spill-over effects. The IMF has focused on the dreadful situation in
South Sudan and in Central African Republic, but I would also raise
the red flag around the risks posed by the likes of al-Shabaab and the
Boko Haram whose leader Abubakar Shekar taunted President Goodluck
Jonathan with the comment ''I am in your city.''
The main downside risk to this generally positive baseline scenario is
the risk that growth in emerging markets might slow much more abruptly
than currently envisaged.

My takeaway is; the tailwinds remain favourable but that the markets
are no longer as benign and that we would be wise to look very closely
how policy makers are getting crunched in places like Ghana. A more
than 30 per cent collapse in a currency is a direct cause-and-effect
of poor policy making. Putting Humpty Dumpty together again is not an
easy thing.

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The United States said on Tuesday it lifted all remaining restrictions on direct assistance to Madagascar after the country's successful 2013 elections and the installation of a new government.
Africa


State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki added that as the African Union
had lifted its suspension of Madagascar's membership, Washington
invited Madagascar President Hery Rajaonarimampianina to the
U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in August.

A coup in 2009 had prompted international donors to cut ties to the
Indian Ocean island, hitting the country's economy and deepening
poverty.

A senior official at the World Bank said last week it would give
Madagascar $400 million in financial support over the next three
years, after the Washington-based lender restored ties with the
country following its peaceful election.

The State Department said the United States provided Madagascar more
than $55 million in food security and health programs in fiscal 2013.

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"It doesn't seem to me the government really has a handle on what is going on," Rashid Abdi, an independent Horn of Africa said by phone from Nairobi.
Kenyan Economy


"All these dodgy deals, and much else, have failed to make Kenya less
vulnerable to terrorism," he said by phone from Sevenoaks, England.
"The terrorists have got more sophisticated, while the state has just
become more bloated."

Kenya's direct involvement in the civil war in Somalia started in
October 2011 when it sent troops to the Horn of African nation after a
series of kidnappings and the murder of a British tourist in northern
Kenya, which the militants said they didn't carry out. At the time,
the Kenyan army said it planned to end its intervention by that
Christmas.

"It wasn't clear what they wanted; now they almost own the entire
Somalia problem," Salim said. "I don't see them exiting any time soon,
but I don't see how they're going to get out of this mess."

Abdi said real reform in the intelligence and security services is vital.

"Foreign governments are frustrated at the government, but even within
the Kenyan security services these people feel helpless," Abdi said.
"They are not getting anywhere. Officers who are doing this job are
not happy, they feel demoralized."

Conclusions

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19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber
Kenyan Economy


Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;

''When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what's left is
terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic
poem, the bedtime story."

Disbelief can be suspended, of course but eventually we reach a Marx
Brothers in duck soup moment.

''Well, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?''

And if you mine social media like I do, you will know that duck soup
moment was crossed during Westgate. And continuing resolutely down
this path is eroding political capital.
"Look at the world around you. It may seem like an im- movable,
implacable place. It is not, with the slightest push - in just the
right place - it can be tipped." Malcolm Gladwell.
Everything is looking ex- tremely fragile.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.902 Last [88.50 is a key level]
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +9.2133% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

149.24 -0.17 -0.11%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.783% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,888.36 11.56 0.24%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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