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I am reading the Crying of Lot 49 Africa |
"I came," she said, "hoping you could talk me out of a fantasy." Cherish it!" cried Hilarious, fiercely. "What else do any of you have? Hold it tightly by it's little tentacle, don't let the Freudians coax it away or the pharmacists poison it out of you. Whatever it is, hold it dear, for when you lose it you go over by that much to the others. You begin to cease to be." -- Thomas Pynchon, The Crying of Lot 49
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Bit by bit, then, Beijing is creating new facts on the ground, or rather in the sea and in the air. Law & Politics |
With each new incident, it is throwing down the gauntlet. Is it worth fighting for a Vietnamese fishing boat? Thought not. How about a submerged Philippine reef? An uninhabited island?
China is seeking to prove to its neighbours that containment cannot work and that the US cannot be relied upon to defend them. If it can do so, they and Washington will have to acknowledge that the status quo is untenable. It is a dangerous strategy. It is also a clever one
Pro-Russian separatists shot down a military helicopter in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on Thursday http://www.dw.de/image/0,,17670638_303,00.jpg
An economic adviser to Putin, Sergei Glazyev, said the U.S. controls the new Ukrainian government and is seeking to use the conflict to start a "third world war." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-28/russia-urges-emergency-steps-over-ukraine-after-rebel-losses.html
"This can't be called anything but madness -- the bombing of cities, airports, escalation of unmotivated violence against their own people," Glazyev told reporters today in the Kazakh capital Astana.
If his identity is confirmed, he would be the first American known to have committed a suicide bombing in Syria on behalf of al Qaeda, said Laith Alkhouri, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/28/us-syria-usa-bomber-idUSKBN0E824S20140528
Recap: Missing flight MH370 NOT in Indian Ocean search zone where 'pings' were heard @DailyMirror http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/recap-missing-flight-malaysia-airlines-3619988
Conclusions
Thomas Pynchon had the Answer
"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers." -- Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow
"No matter how the official narrative of this turns out," it seemed to Heidi, "these are the places we should be looking, not in newspapers or television but at the margins, graffiti, uncontrolled utterances, bad dreamers who sleep in public and scream in their sleep." -- Thomas Pynchon, Bleeding Edge
"I have told the MEC and related stakeholders that I will accept their decision, and the decision of the courts" Banda http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/us-malawi-election-idUSKBN0E91ZL20140529
our days after the election, the MEC said a count of 30 percent of the votes cast showed that the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), headed by Peter Mutharika, brother of the late President Bingu wa Mutharika, was in the lead with 42 percent of the vote.
Banda, southern Africa's first female head of state, followed with 23 percent. The MEC has finished counting but has not announced the result. Local media reports suggest Mutharika would comfortably win if there is no recount.
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Japan Inflation Quickens to Fastest Since 1991 International Trade |
Barclays Plc. became the latest bank to drop a prediction for further BOJ easing this year. Economists Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai cited in an e-mailed note the BOJ's strengthened confidence that it will achieve its inflation target given the firm trend in consumer prices among reasons for revising the forecast.
There's no need for the BOJ to add to stimulus at this point, International Monetary Fund First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton told reporters today in Tokyo. Japan needs to minimize its reliance on monetary policy, he said.
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African Currencies Weaken, As Emerging Markets Bounce Back Africa |
JOHANNESBURG--African currencies are plunging even as capital flows back to the developing world, a sign of the challenge the continent faces in attracting fickle foreign investment.
Ghana's cedi and Zambia's kwacha hit record lows against the U.S. dollar this week. The Kenyan and Tanzanian shillings dipped to the lowest point against the dollar in more than two years.
African economies are growing rapidly, but many run wide trade and budget deficits. This makes some investors nervous about their ability to repay debts if foreign funding runs short.
"We've gotten very little sympathy," said Ghana's President John Dramani Mahama, who has instituted new taxes and cut subsidies to close the West African country's funding gap. "A lot are saying 'Oh no, Ghana has gone astray.' But you don't turn around a deficit in one year."
The African currency selloff comes as investors desperate for strong returns dive into larger emerging-markets, including troubled economies such as Russia and Thailand.
In South Africa, the continent's most-developed economy, growth is falling and a protracted platinum miner's strike is putting new pressure on a wide trade deficit. But the rand is holding up against the dollar this year--thanks to the South African central bank nudging up rates--and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange hit a record high on Monday.
"It's a cycle, and investors are moving back toward emerging markets now," said Mthuli Ncube, the African Development Bank's chief economist.
The latest rush back into emerging markets isn't reaching Africa's smaller economies, though. Their currencies are often too thinly traded to allow a quick exit, and many governments aren't doing enough to explain how they plan to rebalance their economies, said Ridle Markus, an Africa strategist at Barclays Capital in Johannesburg.
Others are battling mounting security concerns that have affected foreign currency flows.
In Kenya, grenade attacks at markets and bus stops have prompted British tour operators to evacuate hundreds of tourists from the Indian Ocean resort town of Mombasa. Nigeria is facing similar problems as the Islamist insurgency Boko Haram ramps up attacks across the country's restive northeast.
Speaking Thursday at the IMF conference in Mozambique, Managing Director Christine Lagarde called volatile investor sentiment a top threat to Africa's short-term economic outlook.
"Policy makers will no doubt have their hands full," Ms. Lagarde said.
Kenya's central bank said this week that the shilling's recent drop was due mostly to foreign companies moving profits out of the country, and pledged to step in if the exchange rate becomes too volatile. Zambia's central bank said on Thursday that the falling price of copper, its key export, has fueled bets against the kwacha.
The bank warned speculators that when the kwacha returns to stronger levels "this may result in heavy financial losses on their part."
Overall, Africa remains a popular investment destination. Economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa will average 5.4% in 2014, the IMF says, well above a global average of 3.6%. The African Development Bank expects a record $80 billion of foreign direct investment into the continent this year.
In Ghana, construction cranes crowd the skyline of the capital, Accra, pulling up new hotels and shopping malls next to tin-roofed shacks.
But the country's wide deficits are tarnishing that appeal. President Mahama has levied a 5% tax on profitable industries such as banks and telecoms, and has cut gasoline subsidies in an effort to pull the budget deficit down to 8.5% this year from 10.5% of gross domestic product in 2013.
Many economists doubt that will be enough for Mr. Mahama to reach his goal. "We are finding homegrown solutions to fixing our economy," Mr. Mahama said in an interview this month. "I believe the economy is responding."
Conclusions
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28-APR-2014 Rising Fiscal Imbalance is Region's Achilles Heel Africa |
Rising fiscal imbalances in some countries. This for me remains the Achilles' Heel. The IMF said: "In a few cases, policy missteps, such as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. In addition, important home-grown risks arise from fiscal vulnerabilities in a number of countries such as Ghana and Zambia.'' Ghana's cedi has been in free-fall and the Zambian kwacha not far behind. The price the markets are exacting for 'policy mis- steps' is brutal.
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Africa needs massive investment in infrastructure: IMF Africa |
Maputo (AFP) - Africa's fast growing economies need to spend $93 billion a year just to bring infrastructure up to speed, the head of the IMF said on Thursday, sketching out the daunting challenges still faced by the continent.
Opening a major meeting for finance ministers and central bankers in Maputo to plot Africa's rise, Christine Lagarde said the continent still faced massive challenges.
"Only 16 percent of all roads are paved, compared with 85 percent in South Asia. These shortfalls represent huge costs to business -- and to people."
Sub-Saharan African economies, some of the fastest growing in the world, are expected to expand by more than five percent this year.
But poor infrastructure, including a lack of capacity in electricity production and poor roads, is seen as curbing growth.
"High quality infrastructure can be a magnet for foreign investment," said Lagarde.
After years of hailing Africa's economic development, policy makers want to usher in a second phase of development that sees economic gains benefit all.
While the emergence of a middle class has boosted consumer growth, much of the continent's growth has come from oil, gas and other natural resources.
"Let me be frank, in too many countries, the rents from extractive industries are captured by just a few," said Lagarde.
"Mining can account for an important share of output and export earnings, but often contributes relatively little to budget revenues and job creation."
Beyond the corridors of power and conference talk-shops, Africans are increasingly frustrated by the lack of good jobs.
"Jobs are scarce," says Maputo street vendor Ercilia, who sells bread to passers by. "Some days I make a living and some days I don't."
"I believe in Africa some day all this will change," said security guard, Marcelino Jaime, noting that few jobs were available for uneducated young people.
"In Africa we need a lot of creativity to improve things," he added.
Lagarde earlier hailed the leaps made by African economies in the last decade as "nothing short of remarkable."
But as policymakers take stock of Africa's strong economic performance, many are also looking at the risks that lie ahead.
The region could face lower demand for its exports should growth slow in increasingly important emerging markets like Brazil, India and, in particular, China.
Beijing is a top buyer of African resources from copper to oil and gas.
In rapidly growing cities such as Maputo the Chinese presence is manifest, from a Chinese-built airport to the country's businessmen chattering on cell phones as they walk from meeting to meeting.
But poverty perhaps remains the continent's biggest challenge.
Ahead of the meeting, rights groups questioned the current optimistic view of "Africa's rise".
"Africa is not rising for ordinary citizens," said Oxfam International's Executive Director Winnie Byanyima.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.06% 2014 Africa |
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.4214 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1510 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
The man who led Egypt's military coup last year, General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, has won the country's presidential election with a staggering share of the vote, well above 90 percent. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-29/egypt-vote-is-more-a-warning-than-a-victory
if the equity markets had a vote in Egypt, army chief general Abdel Fattah al-Sisi would actually get one of those impossible- to-believe votes of 99.8% 20-JAN-2014 http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2001.pdf
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +23.28% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
8,242.94 -294.95 -3.45%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.74% 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
"They (Boko Haram) are better equipped," one soldier told Reuters by telephone "I'm taking a knife to a gunfight," he said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/us-nigeria-kidnap-missteps-idUSKBN0E916320140529
22-APR-2014 The New set of Risks are Geopolitical Risks http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2104.pdf
Coming to Africa, we have to accept that geopolitical risks have ratcheted higher. At a macro level, the US and China are in my view in a conflictual relation on our continent. As we drill further down to the micro level, we can see from South Sudan [where I cannot see how either side can win this decisively] to places like CAR, a significant deterioration.
This comment by the leader of Nigeria's Boko Haram Islamists Abubakar Shekau caught my attention;
"We are in your city," he said, addressing Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan.
That comment could have been made by the Al-Shebaab.
Both Boko Haram and Al-Shebaab represent a risk that David Lipton did not touch on, that being asymmetric risks. The recent bombings in Abuja and last years attack on Westgate confirm the potency of asymmetric risks.
Gunmen on motorbikes kill 32 villagers in northeast Nigeria http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0EA0JA20140530
Gunmen mounted on motorbikes killed at least 32 people in the northeastern Nigerian village of Gurmushi, a police source said on Thursday.
The attacked occurred along the Cameroon border area of Borno state, the heart of an insurgency by Boko Haram militants fighting for an Islamic state in religiously mixed Nigeria, on Wednesday afternoon.
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"Corruption -- systemic graft -- is at the heart of the state's inability to respond to insecurity in general," said John Githongo Kenyan Economy |
Grand theft by the country's ruling elite has allowed an attitude of "if he can do it so can I" to permeate the country's lower ranking security apparatus, he said.
"We are paying the price in blood," Githongo said.
Conclusions
19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1905-2.pdf
Don DeLillo writes in Point Omega;
''When you strip away surfaces, when you see into it, what's left is terror. This is the thing that literature was meant to cure. The epic poem, the bedtime story."
I embraced social media in 2009. And it has become quite a passion and even a business now. We scan the real time and measure, sometimes try and shape but we are measuring responses to brands across the continent.
There is an enormous conversation and hullabaloo going on and we search this for signals. And the signal is very loud and clear and unanimous. We are being spun ''an epic poem, the bedtime story.'' Disbelief can be suspended, of course but eventually we reach a Marx Brothers in duck soup moment.
''Well, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?''
And if you mine social media like I do, you will know that duck soup moment was crossed during Westgate. And continuing resolutely down this path is eroding political capital.
"Look at the world around you. It may seem like an immovable, implacable place. It is not, with the slightest push - in just the right place - it can be tipped." Malcolm Gladwell. Everything is looking ex- tremely fragile.
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.66 http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.652% 2014 http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
149.84 +0.60 +0.40%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.6462% 2014 http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
4,895.13 +6.77 +0.14%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
Kenya Commercial Bank traded its highest volume session yesterday for 2014 and 28.809m shares share data here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Netherlands overtakes UK as Kenya's main buyer @BD_Africa http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Netherlands-overtakes-UK-as-Kenya-main-buyer/-/539546/2331246/-/12bgv1bz/-/index.html
Netherlands has overtaken the UK as the second top market for Kenya's exports in the three months to March as shipments to key traditional markets dropped.
Official data shows that exports to Netherlands rose 26.9 per cent to Sh11.8 billion, narrowing the gap with Uganda which imported Kenyan goods worth Sh12.4 billion, down from Sh13.6 billion.
The increased shipments to Netherlands were linked to increased flower sales, which accounted for nearly 75 per cent of the earnings.
While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Trade officials maintain the policy targets in all parts of the world, the government has increasingly been seen as seeking closer ties with states in Africa, eastern Europe, Gulf and Asia.
Conclusions
There is a fundamental dysfunction at the heart of the Government's Foreign Policy in that it is increasingly not synchronised with its main Trading Partners.
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