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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 06th of June 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank the High Commissioner of the Republic of Pakistan and Mrs.
Rafiuzzaman Siddiqui for the Invitation to Dinner last night.

most enjoyable.

read more


Captain Koki Mutungi @ms_koki 1st Female African Pilot @Boeing Dreamliner #KQ @KenyaAirways
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I have been immersed for a while in Don Delillo's world. Its luminous
and prophetic and for someone who saw the Iranian Revolution and other
big Ticket World Events unfold in front of him and recalls them like
yesterday - Don Delillo writes about that newsreel in my head in a
wonderfully erudite way.

read more


DeLillo's novels "marked by the way in which word and image, film and televisual effects are reconfigured as aspects of an englobing media assemblage " (Johnston 168).
Africa


The news is fiction, the news is the new narrative

In Mao II, the author lets Bill Gray comment on the same question:
"News of disaster is the only narrative people need. The darker the
news, the grander the narrative"

"What makes this city different is that nobody expects to be in one
place for ten minutes. Everybody moves all the time. Seven nameless
men own everything and move us around on a board. People are swept out
into the streets because the owners need the space. Then they are
swept off the streets because someone owns the air they breathe. Men
buy and sell air in the sky and there are bodies heaped together in
boxes on the sidewalk. Then they sweep away the boxes."-- Don DeLillo,
Mao II

DeLILLO
http://www.theparisreview.org/interviews/1887/the-art-of-fiction-no-135-don-delillo

In Mao II I thought about the secluded writer, the arch individualist,
living outside the glut of the image world. And then the crowd, many
kinds of crowds, people in soccer stadiums, people gathered around
enormous photographs of holy men or heads of state. This book is an
argument about the future. Who wins the struggle for the imagination
of the world? There was a time when the inner world of the
novelist--Kafka's private vision and maybe Beckett's--eventually folded
into the three-dimensional world we were all living in. These men
wrote a kind of world narrative. And so did Joyce in another sense.
Joyce turned the book into a world with Ulysses and Finnegans Wake.
Today, the world has become a book--more precisely a news story or
television show or piece of film footage. And the world narrative is
being written by men who orchestrate disastrous events, by military
leaders, totalitarian leaders, terrorists, men dazed by power. World
news is the novel people want to read. It carries the tragic narrative
that used to belong to the novel. The crowds in Mao II, except for the
mass wedding, are TV crowds, masses of people we see in news coverage
of terrible events. The news has been full of crowds, and the TV
audience represents another kind of crowd. The crowd broken down into
millions of small rooms.

read more






http://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/97816189310231.jpg?w=226&h=289
Law & Politics


"China's [current] leaders are personally vulnerable because they
trace their lineage to the winners of the power struggle that cleaved
their party in 1989," said veteran China journalist Louisa Lim.

The leaders who have governed China since 1989 have emphasized a
dictum attributed to Deng: "The gunshots have afforded us 20 years of
peace and opportunity for doing business" (Radio Free Asia, June 7,
2011; BBC Chinese Service, June 6, 2004). According to noted China
expert Perry Link, the massacre has bequeathed the CCP this terrific
inheritance: "Deng Xiaoping's logic is that shooting to kill can
ensure stability," Link said in a talk last week in Hong Kong. If a
massive opposition movement were to recur, Link added, the CCP would
again face the choice of either a bloody crackdown or giving up power.
"They will still choose force," he said. Another tool that the CCP is
using to consolidate its support base is nationalism. Said French
Sinologist Jean-Philippe Béja: "Xi Jinping has raised the Chinese
Dream slogan and bolstered China's position on the world stage. The
CCP is relying on nationalism to uphold its legitimacy" (Ming Pao, May
30; Apple Daily [Hong Kong], May 30).

read more



Soldiers from the honour guards of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) march in front of Tiananmen Square, after the welcoming ceremony for Kuwait's Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Sabah at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, June 3, 2014
Law & Politics


Xi likes Putin, the first foreign leader he met as China's president,
and calls him his "good friend."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-05/this-time-russia-china-alliance-will-last

Conclusions


I must admit i think this twin-sided Pivot to Asia and then to
Russia/Ukraine was poor strategy and tactics because it has allowed
and pushed Xi and Vladimir into a Triangulation Trade of @BarackObama.

Trucks packed with criminals and suspects in Yili, Xinjiang, last
month at a mass public sentencing. Photograph: Reuters

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/china-sentences-nine-death-terrorism-offences-xinjiang

U.S. to beef up Black Sea presence after Crimea crisis: Hagel

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/05/us-usa-hagel-idUSKBN0EG1GF20140605

The $1 billion fund will allow for a "stronger presence of U.S. ships
in the Black Sea", Hagel said, adding that the presence of the Vella
Gulf was an expression of Washington's commitment to regional
security.

"We will sustain that tempo going forward," Hagel told reporters,
referring to the rotating presence of U.S. ships in the Black Sea
since the Crimea crisis erupted.

Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/06/us-usa-china-military-idUSKBN0EG2XK20140606

read more



The Mistral is like a small aircraft carrier. It is "quite difficult to build, enormously complicated and very potent," says Peter Roberts, "It's a one-stop shop for intervention."
Law & Politics


The Mistral's first function is to deliver helicopters, either for
close support or to bring troops to the front. Each ship can carry 16
large helicopters, with six on deck at a time. Each wave of six can
carry up to 250 troops 125 miles inland, before returning to pick up
more. As soon as the first wave leaves, the next six helicopters are
brought up from the hangar in elevators. The ship can accommodate 700
troops plus crew in basic comfort.

The second function is to land amphibious craft. Four such craft are
loaded in the rear of the ship. As the ship approaches shore, the
stern submerges slightly, like a parked Citroen car, so that the bay
floods and the craft float out. These craft can be used to beach the
59 assorted armored vehicles or 40 battle tanks the Mistral can carry.

The Mistral

http://rt.com/files/news/1f/8e/d0/00/mimi-1.jpg

President Barack Obama sits with French President Francois
Hollande, right, Secretary of State John Kerry, and National Security
Adviser Susan Rice, back to camera, left, as they have dinner at Le
Chiberta, in Paris, France, Thursday, June 5, 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-05/hollande-dinners-with-obama-putin-feature-ukraine-and-bank-spat.html

read more


ECB President Mario Draghi reduced the deposit rate to minus 0.10 percent from zero, making the institution the world's first major central bank to use a negative rate.
International Trade


Policy makers also lowered the benchmark rate to 0.15 percent from
0.25 percent. Draghi will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in
Frankfurt.

The promise of further measures today "has stoked up hopes that the
ECB is going to unleash a huge bazooka on the market in the press
conference," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities
Ltd. in London.

The currency was 0.2 percent lower on the day, trading at $1.3567 as
of 2:03 p.m. in Frankfurt. That's the lowest since Feb. 5.

Inflation in the euro area slowed to 0.5 percent in May, matching the
lowest rate in more than four years. Officials will significantly
reduce their 2014 inflation outlook from the 1 percent forecast in
March when they publish their latest forecasts today, one central-bank
official said.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3650 "For the euro, it was the usual "buy the rumor, sell the
fact" story," said Emma Lawson, strategist at National Australia Bank
in Sydney.
Dollar Index 80.37  dollar index .DXY dropped almost 0.4 percent from
a four-month peak to 80.347.
Japan Yen 102.32 The dollar was little changed at 102.34 yen at 6:58
a.m. in London, having gained 0.6 percent this week, the most since
the period ended April 18
Swiss Franc 0.8917
Pound 1.6809
Aussie 0.9334 strong post ECB Rally
India Rupee 59.215
South Korea Won 1020.20
Brazil Real 2.2611
Egypt Pound 7.1492
South Africa Rand 10.6889

The dollar has rallied 1.4 percent in the past month, the best
performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation Weighted Indexes. The euro weakened 0.8 percent, while the
yen appreciated 0.7 percent.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3650

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

"We think it's a significant package," Draghi told reporters in
Frankfurt. "Are we finished? The answer is no."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-06/draghi-s-resilient-euro-recalls-greenspan-conundrum.html

"The magnitude and multi-faceted nature of the stimulus suggests that
the ECB's main goal here is to take a chainsaw to the euro, but the
markets are just laughing at Draghi's slasher mask," Guy LeBas

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-06/draghi-s-resilient-euro-recalls-greenspan-conundrum.html

Germany's DAX Index (DAX) topped 10,000 yesterday for the first time
and Italian two-year yields fell to a record 0.594 percent. Europe's
shared currency rose 0.5 percent to $1.3660 yesterday after earlier
dropping as much as 0.7 percent to $1.3503, the lowest level since
Feb. 6.

Conclusions

Price Action yesterday with Euro buying and Peripheral outperfomance
is an important signifier.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.37

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 5 day Chart INO 1.6809

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=FOREX_GBPUSD

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1254.93 [short covering]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 102.54

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The contract slid 16 cents to $102.48 yesterday, the lowest close in
three days. The volume of all futures traded was about 70 percent less
than the 100-day average. Prices have dropped 0.3 percent this week.

Conclusions


trades expensive.

read more


Hog futures for July delivery gained 44 percent this year to $1.227 a pound on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Commodities


The Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities gained 2.2
percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 4 percent.
The Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index gained 2.9 percent.

The virus, which can be 100 percent fatal to young piglets, has
trimmed the U.S. hog herd by about 10 percent, according to Vilsack.

read more


When some investors were fleeing Russian stocks as President Vladimir Putin moved to annex Crimea, Pacific Investment Management Co. (PEQWX) turned bullish. [as i did]
Emerging Markets


The Micex's dividend yield on March 14, the last trading day before
Crimeans voted to join Russia, was 4.59 percent, while the gauge
traded at 4.56 times estimated earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg
show. Valuations slumping below payout levels can signal a buying
opportunity to investors.

"The market's dividend yield exceeded its" price-to-earnings ratio,
Gordon said. "This is very unusual."

 The dollar-denominated RTS Index is the world's fourth-best
performer, having risen 26 percent from a more than four-year low on
March 14. The Micex is now trading at 5.3 times estimated earnings,
compared with 10.8 times for MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Frontier Markets

read more


U.S. envoy urges Congo's Kabila to respect law, step aside in 2016 [very low probability of this happening]
Africa


"Our strong advice is that there is a global election calendar with
the presidential elections no later than the end of 2016, and (that
there should be) no attempt to disregard the unamendable stipulation
of article 220," U.S. special envoy Russ Feingold told a news
conference in the capital Kinshasa.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.094% in 2014 and back above 50,000
Africa


50,000.43 +40.22 +0.08%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.6889

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1478

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt studies international bond issue

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/BANK_259556.html

The yield on Egypt's $1 billion sovereign bond maturing in 2020
tumbled to 4.73 per cent this week, its lowest level since December
2010, from a peak of 11.07 per cent in June 2013. Five-year credit
default swaps (CDS) , used to insure against the risk of an Egyptian
sovereign debt default, are at their lowest level since mid-2011.

Even with the Gulf aid, the government remains under heavy pressure to
raise funds as it runs huge budget deficits. State spending is
projected to exceed revenues by 290 billion Egyptian pounds ($40
billion) in the year to June 30, 2015, according to an official budget
draft.

While many Western investors remain wary of Egypt, Gulf governments
are encouraging their state-backed companies and financial
institutions to invest there, so an Egyptian bond issue might attract
substantial demand from them.

A Fitch ratings analyst said on Thursday that improvements in the
political outlook suggest Egypt may be at the bottom of its ratings
cycle. Fitch upgraded Egypt's outlook to stable on its B-minus rating
in January.

Egypt is due for a ratings review on June 27.

The black-market exchange rate has appreciated by 6 piastres to
E£7.30:US$1 following the official announcement of the victory of
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi @EIU

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=691883253&Country=Egypt&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Exchange+rates&u=1&pid=1341797518&oid=1341797518&uid=1

There is speculation that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are readying an aid
package for Egypt worth US$20bn, to be disbursed during Mr Sisi's
presidential term.

Following the unrest that unseated the former president Hosni Mubarak
in January 2011, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) managed a gradual
depreciation of the local currency against the dollar at the expense
of its foreign reserves, which stood at US$33.6bn at end-2010. But the
rapid depletion of reserves, which reached a low of US$13.5bn in
February 2013, forced the CBE to introduce a dollar-rationing
mechanism at end-2012. The CBE has conducted five major
dollar-auctions totalling US$5.3bn since the dollar-rationing system
was introduced, enabled by an inflow of grants and deposits from the
Gulf. (In addition, the CBE holds a US$40m auction three times a
month.) Media reports suggest that monthly demand for dollars in Egypt
exceeds the amount provided through the official market by half a
billion dollars.

Conclusions


The Signal in the Noise

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +4.71% yesterday +25.3022% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,498.65 382.46 +4.71%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.5831% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +8.811% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Zambia Seen Losing Battle Against Kwacha Speculators on Deficit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-05/zambia-seen-losing-battle-against-kwacha-speculators-on-deficit.html

The Bank of Zambia's measures to stem a slide in the kwacha by
clamping down on currency speculators are being undone by government
overspending.

Central bank Governor Michael Gondwe on May 30 raised the overnight
rate that lenders use to borrow from each other and ordered reserves
be set aside for Zambian accounts held abroad. Gondwe is seeking to
ease pressure on the kwacha, Africa's worst-performing currency this
year against the dollar after Ghana's cedi, as the budget deficit
swelled because of higher salaries for civil servants and fuel and
corn subsidies.

The new rules spurred a 4 percent gain in the kwacha this week, paring
losses versus the greenback for 2014 to 16 percent. The rally will be
short-lived until the government demonstrates more fiscal discipline,
according to Shilan Shah, a London-based Africa economist at Capital
Economics Ltd. and Irmgard Erasmus, an analyst at Paarl, South
Africa-based NKC Independent Economists.

"Investors are essentially seeing through these kinds of emergency
foreign-exchange restrictions," Shah said by phone yesterday. "What is
really needed is more fundamental reform, particularly in terms of
fiscal policy, as opposed to just implementing stopgap
foreign-exchange restrictions."

The Bank of Zambia raised overnight borrowing costs to 22 percent, 10
percentage points above the key policy rate from 6 percent previously,
while subjecting foreign-exchange accounts to a 14-percent statutory
reserve ratio, Razia Khan, Standard Chartered regional head of
research for Africa, said in an e-mailed note to clients on June 2.
The central bank's Mayondi confirmed the measures by phone on June 4.

Speculating against the currency may result in "heavy financial
losses" when the kwacha "reverts to an equilibrium path that is
consistent with fundamentals," the central bank said in a statement on
May 29. The currency strengthened 1.3 percent to 6.6150 per dollar as
of 6:27 p.m. yesterday in Lusaka.

Policy makers have spent more than $178 million of the central bank's
reserves to stem the kwacha's slide and contain inflation in Africa's
second-biggest copper producer, which imports items from oil to
fertilizers.

"We remain quite bearish on the kwacha in the medium term," NKC's
Erasmus said on June 3. "High government expenditure, leading to
substantial fiscal overruns, and sovereign borrowings to meet
budgetary needs have created an environment where the central bank has
to tighten monetary policy to curb the inflationary pressure."

Increasing external debt has also contributed to the currency's
weakness, NKC's Erasmus said. The government may be forced to cut back
on spending as demand for Treasury bills and local bonds wane, making
it difficult to raise the 3.5 billion kwacha ($529 million) envisaged
for local borrowing in the 2014 budget.

"Policy makers need to demonstrate a bit more ambitious targets of
tightening fiscal policy before things calm down," Capital Economics'
Shah said. "There's only so much the central bank can do without
wide-scale fiscal reform. These measures will maybe slow the pace of
depreciation but the fundamental weaknesses that have been allowed to
build are still there."

Conclusions


I caught up with the Governor in Maputo.

Burundi is ready to send hundreds more troops to Central African
Republic, where international forces are trying to put an end to
sectarian violence, President Pierre Nkurunziza told AFP.

http://news.yahoo.com/burundi-ready-boost-c-africa-contingent-044048789.html

Burundi is ready to send hundreds more troops to Central African
Republic, where international forces are trying to put an end to
sectarian violence, President Pierre Nkurunziza told AFP.

"We have been asked by the African Union and the United Nations to
raise the number of our troops in the CAR," Nkurunziza said during a
visit to Paris. "We are ready to deploy 450 troops and have prepared
two police units of a total of 280 officers."

Burundi is looking for necessary equipment and support from its
partners to see the mission through, he added.

Burundi currently has 850 men in the 6,000-strong African peacekeeping
force known by the acronym MISCA, which is trying to contain the
crisis along with about 2,000 French troops.

read more


KKR buys rose farm in first Africa deal
Africa


Afriflora is an Ethiopian company that grows about 730 million of the
flowers a year for export to Europe, making it a significant player in
the east African country's blossoming cut flower export industry. KKR
is investing about $200 million from its $6.2 billion European fund to
buy a stake in the company, according to a person familiar with the
transaction.

The deal opens a new chapter for KKR, the New York-based firm
best-known for its hostile $25 billion leveraged takeover of RJR
Nabisco in 1988, the subject of the book "Barbarians at the Gate."

It also comes as private-equity firms, seeking opportunities outside
the crowded markets of North America and Europe, show tentative
interest in Africa. KKR rival, Washington-based Carlyle Group, raised
a $698 million African fund earlier this year and has invested in a
food distributor and a logistics company, for instance.

Private-equity investment in sub-Saharan Africa increased 43% to $1.6
billion in 2013 from the previous year, according to the Emerging
Markets Private Equity Association. Investors are attracted by fast
economic growth in some countries on the continent. The Ethiopian
economy grew by an average 10.6% a year between 2004 and 2012,
according to the World Bank.

"We see Africa as a long-term attractive investment destination," said
Kayode Akinola, head of KKR's African operations. "The potential is
astounding. But the work to get there is going to be considerable."

Afriflora, whose roses are certified by Fairtrade International, a
nongovernmental organization that seeks to ensure workers are treated
well, employs 8,700 people in Ethiopia, 80% of whom are women. All
employees and their children are provided with free health care and
schooling. The company's extensive greenhouses are irrigated with
water from the nearby Lake Ziway and rainwater that is recycled and
piped through a computerized drip irrigation system. The
flowers--including sweetheart roses, a variety with smaller buds and
shorter stems--are harvested three times a day and flown by Ethiopian
Airlines to the Netherlands for sale.

East African production of roses is expanding to meet demand for
lower-cost flowers in large supermarkets in Europe. Ethiopia's rose
exports to the European Union more than doubled to EURO 131 million in
2012 from EURO 62 million in 2008, according to the International
Association of Horticultural Producers. Ethiopia sent 1.27 billion
roses to Europe in 2012, making it the second largest exporter of cut
roses to the region behind Kenya, according to the association.

read more


Kenya: US Embassy increases defenses amid threat @AP
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, Kenya -- The Marine stood behind a camouflaged sandbag bunker
atop the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi and scanned the horizon with
binoculars. What he saw was a busy street that officials fear is full
of targets for an attack by al-Qaida-linked militants because
diplomatic missions are in the neighborhood.

More than 15 years after al-Qaida destroyed the U.S. Embassy in
Nairobi with a massive truck bomb that killed more than 200 people,
fear is rising that U.S. diplomatic personnel and property could again
be targeted. Armed Marines are now stationed on the embassy's roof,
one indication of recent security upgrades.

Intelligence has been circulating in the region the last two months
that American interests are the next intended target for al-Shabab, an
al-Qaida linked group in Somalia responsible for last year's attack on
Nairobi's Westgate Mall, said a Kenyan police official who insisted on
anonymity to talk about security matters.

The terror group has also shown interest in attacking the U.S.
military base in Djibouti, just north of Somalia, and there were
indications that the U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia was being considered as
a target last year, said Matt Bryden, the former head of the United
Nations Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea and a top expert on
al-Shabab.

Ambassador Robert Godec last week told some 400 Americans at a town
hall meeting: "We know that there's a threat, and we know it's
serious." Diplomats have indicated that global terrorists affiliated
with al-Qaida are moving in to the region.

The embassy looks likely to scale back the number of U.S. personnel
stationed in Kenya, in part by reducing or moving the East Africa
mission for the U.S. aid agency USAID.

The embassy's top security officer, Marion Cotter, detailed the
evolution of terror in Kenya: The first improvised explosive device
explosion was in August 2012. Then militants began using remote
controlled IEDs and brought into Kenya a massive, complex car bomb
this year that the FBI disarmed. Militants now also use multiple IEDs
in a single attack, and gunmen on suicide missions.

"Westgate was the first time there was really a Western target since
2002," Cotter told the U.S. audience, referring to the September
attack on an upscale mall by four gunmen that killed at least 67
people, many of them foreigners.

In a statement to The Associated Press after the town hall, Godec, who
was stationed in Nairobi during the 1998 embassy bombing, said the
embassy is continually evaluating its security posture and updating
security based on threat information analysis.

The embassy on Thursday told U.S. citizens to be cautious in large
groups -- at bars or restaurants, for instance -- when watching the
upcoming soccer World Cup. Al-Shabab detonated bombs in neighboring
Uganda as people watched the World Cup final four years ago, killing
70 people.

Late last month an al-Shabab leader named Fuad Mohamed Khalaf, also
known as Shongole, said Islam's flag will fly over Washington and New
York. In an earlier speech, al-Shabab leader Ahmad Godane foreshadowed
attacks on French interests, Bryden said, which may have referred to a
suicide bomb attack at a restaurant in Djibouti, where French forces
are also stationed.

The U.S. Embassy sits across from the street from the U.N.
headquarters in Kenya. Kenya recently deployed more security forces on
the street.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in a speech on Wednesday said his
government is committed to protecting the country. The military is
planning to station troops on roads potentially used by al-Shabab to
enter Kenya.

"Serious tests lie before us," Kenyatta said.

Conclusions


We are seemingly into a New Normal.

read more


19-MAY-2014 The Dash-Board is Blinking Amber
Kenyan Economy


This comment by the leader of Nigeria's Boko Haram Islamists Abubakar
Shekau caught my attention; "We are in your city," he said, addressing
Nigeria's President Goodluck 22-APR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2104.pdf

That comment could have been made by the Al-Shebaab.

Both Boko Haram and Al-Shebaab represent a risk that David Lipton did
not touch on, that being asymmetric risks.

read more



Kenya's economic growth will rise to 6.4 percent in 2015 from a forecast 5.8 percent this year while inflation in 2014 will be around 7.5 percent, according to a preliminary prospectus for Kenya's debut Eurobond.
Kenyan Economy


"Inflation will remain in the upper limit target of 7.5 percent in
2014," said the prospectus, seen by Reuters on Thursday. Kenyan
inflation increased to 7.30 percent in the year to May from 6.41
percent a month earlier.

The preliminary prospectus did not give the size, tenor or other
details about the Eurobond, which is expected to raise up to $2
billion and for which an investor roadshow began on Thursday.

Yerlan Syzdykov, head of emerging markets, bond and high yield at
Pioneer Investments, said investors are likely to be willing to
overlook political risks associated with east Africa's largest economy
if the yield on the bond is appealing.

"We will be assessing the creditworthiness of the country, but given
how tight this market is, very much driven by lack of growth stories
or yield stories, Kenya will be popular if it is priced reasonably,"
Syzdykov told a briefing this week.

The Eurobond document said Kenya's cabinet approved the 2014/2015
budget on April 28, allocating 116.7 billion shillings ($1.33 billion)
for on-going and new road projects and 43.6 billion to energy-related
initiatives.

The budget also estimated the net public debt to GDP ratio will
decline from 52.1 percent at the end of this month to 49.8 in
2016/2017.

GOK Eurobond THIS PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS IS AVAILABLE ONLY: (1) TO
QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS (AS DEFINED BELOW) OR (2) OUTSIDE OF
THE U.S

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/Republic%20of%20Kenya%20Preliminary%20Prospectus%20-%203%20June%202014.PDF

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.555
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.2499% 2014 [2.213% below an all time
High set 12th May]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

149.29 +0.05 +0.03%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.8743% 2014 [Feb 20th 2014 low]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,835.53 -21.01 -0.43%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Uchumi postpones rights issue @BD_Africa [Thats a Buy Signal]
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Uchumi-postpones-rights-issue/-/539552/2338602/-/11gba7a/-/index.html

Uchumi Supermarket market cap is $37.76m which makes it a Takeover Target surely

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTM%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           12.45
Total Shares Issued:          265426614.00
Market Capitalization:        3,304,561,344
EPS:             1.35
PE:                 9.222

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Republic of Kenya mandated Barclays, J. P. Morgan, Standard Bank
and QNB Capital to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings
in the US and UK commencing on Thursday 5th June 2014 through June
15th for purposes of marketing its First Eurobond.
The Government of Kenya Team is being led by the Cabinet Secretary
Henry Rotich and were in San Francisco yesterday and Los Angeles
today.
The Sub Saharan bond markets were a rising tide in 2012 and 2013 and
it was the Republic of Rwanda which sold its $400m Bond last year into
the sweetest of sweet spots.
In 2014, the SSA Sovereign Bond market has bifurcated with the market
punishing Ghana and Zambia who were seen as playing too fast and too
loose.
In North Africa, Egypt has seen its Yields at the lowest level since
December 2010.
And i think notwithstanding the spike in SSA Issuance Demand
significantly outpaces Supply and its a secular medium term Allocation
thing.
I see Kenya looking to go one time and I think we will see a $2b issue.
My Rate Range is 6.95%-7.5% but this is a moving target.
The Shilling has bounced off 2 and a half year lows above 88.00 and
was last at 87.555
Net New Liquidity via the Eurobond will see the Equity Markets glide
higher from here. and today should mark a Bottom.
Big Cap stocks have continued to outperform in 2014 on robust
International Buy Side Demand.
Small Caps have been a Stand Out in an interesting development in 2014.
Value stocks like Kenya Airways, Mumias Sugar, Uchumi, TPS Serena have
seriously underperformed of late. Value stock valuations are
egregious.
The Nairobi All Share ticked 0.04 points higher to close at 149.33 and
is +9.279% in 2014.
The Nairobi NSE20 bounced 12.31 points higher and off a february Low
to close at 4847.83.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi firmed 2.74% to close at 150.00. Kakuzi has rallied +27.11%
over the last 4 weeks and sits 4.45% below a record closing High of
157.00 set this week.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom closed unchanged at 12.80 and traded 1.601m shares. There
were Buyers for 500% more shares than were traded during the session,
at the closing Bell signalling an absolute floor in the Price here.
With France Telecom hitting the exit Button and the Virtual Mobile
Operator License regime, we are witnessing a big change in the
competitor landscape.

Scangroup traded 3rd at the Securities Exchange and Scangroup has seen
a material upscaling of volume traded of late. Scangroup closed
unchanged at 47.25 and traded 2.002m shares. With WPP now the majority
shareholder, I surmise Scangroup will be running down growth more
aggressively and that there will be a Network Effect Kicker.

Insert Scangroup 5weeks Volume traded chart

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Car and General was the biggest Winner at the Exchange today and
traded 8,200 shares all at 40.00 +8.11%.

Uchumi improved 0.8% to close at 12.55 and bounce off a more than 2
year closing Low from yesterday. Uchumi has apparently postponed its
Rights Issue. Uchumi has a market cap of just over $36.65m and after a
quite unfathomable poor run is surely a choice Takeover Target.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank rallied +1.0256% to close at 49.25 and traded
solid volume of 3.291m shares worth 162.843m. KCB was trading at 49.75
+2.05% session highs at the closing Bell. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a
Factor of 3 versus 1 at the Close, signalling KCB might well be set to
push through a Record All Time Closing High of 50.00 reached on a
number of occasions last year.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 41.75 and traded 2.287m shares worth
95.504m. Equity Bank has been on a Tear since announcing it would
piggy back Airtel's Infrastructure via a Virtual Mobile Operator
License to bring a mobile banking solution to its Customers. Equity
Bank is +9.15% over the last 4 weeks and +35.77% in 2014. The Optimal
scenario for equity Bank shareholders is one where Equity Bank
leverages the Airtel Africa infrastructure in a regional direction.

Centum eased 0.625% to close at 39.75 and traded brisk volume of
1.419m shares. Centum is set to release Full Year Earnings this month.

Jubilee rallied 2.608% to close at a Fresh 2014 High of 354.00.
Jubilee has rallied relentlessly and +14.193% since the beginning of
May.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Athi River Cement traded a chunky block of 745,500 shares all at 80.00
and unchanged. Athi River is making a regional cement market share
grab via its Plant in Tanzania and in Kitui. Mr. Paunrana has always
bet on growth and is doing so again.
Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 172.00 and was trading at 175.00
+1.74% at the Finale. Bamburi Cement is finding support at 2014 Lows
and after a very soft patch and news of an interim Dividend of 6
shillings a share will buttress the Floor under the price.
Portland retreated 3.75% to close at 77.00 and traded 3,500 shares.
Portland is +11.594% in 2014. and has corrected 31% since end March
when Portland closed at 100.00. There is a lot of anecdotal Chatter
that Portland is being stalked by Mr. Aliko Dangote.

EABL closed unchanged at 281.00 and was in fact trading at intra day
highs of 290.00 +3.2% at the Finale. EABL has corrected 6.6455% since
closing at a 52 week High of 301.00 on 12th May. I expect a retest of
that 52 week High from May in June.

KenolKobil closed unchanged at 9.00 on better than solid volume of
4.862m shares.
Total Kenya ticked 0.95% lower to close at 26.00 and traded



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2014
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
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  aly khan says:
june 9th, 2014 at 08:20 am
Captain Koki Mutungi @ms_koki 1st Female African Pilot @Boeing Dreamliner #KQ @KenyaAirways @YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GZ8lE_BJCs