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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 12th of June 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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@mandharini set up Zen Garden Nairobi cc @escharrenberg yesterday
Africa


The First #Worldcup I really remember is that one in Spain when Paulo
Rossi's Italy ambushed and shot down the beautiful team of Brazil led
by the 40 cigarettes a day Man Socrates.

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Brazil Christ The Redeemer Brazil #Worldcup
Africa


And the Film below is a remarkable one

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The film's title in Portuguese, Central do Brasil, is the name of Rio de Janeiro's main railway station. The film premiered at the 48th Berlin International Film Festival.
Africa


The film is ranked #57 in Empire magazine's "The 100 Best Films Of
World Cinema" in 2010

Filme Central do Brasil Completo @YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpZgPWTUrlE

Macro Thoughts

@alykhansatchu  ·  2h #China lifting the Price of WTI is an important
#Geopolitical Signal in the Noise
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu

Home Thoughts

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"All of Tikrit is in the hands of the militants," a police colonel told the AFP news agency. @AJELive
Law & Politics


The Iraqi city of Tikrit has been seized by fighters from the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant, security sources have said, the second
city to fall to the group in two days.

Sources told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that gunmen had set up
checkpoints around Tikrit, which lies between the capital Baghdad and
Mosul, Iraq's second largest city which was captured by ISIL on
Tuesday.

The New York Times also reported on Wednesday that Iraq's Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki had repeatedly asked the US to launch drone
attacks and airstrikes against the fighters since last month, but
Washington had so far refused to get involved.

The collapse of government forces, said to number 60,000 in the
region, before several hundred insurgents is a humiliation for the
central government

http://www.globalresearch.ca/al-qaeda-offshoot-isis-captures-mosul-from-iraqi-government-forces/5386611

Chinese fighter jets flew "abnormally close" to Japanese military
surveillance planes in the East China Sea, the second incident in less
than a month, Japan's Ministry of Defense said

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/japan-urges-china-to-withdraw-un-application-on-war-documents.html

Two Su-27 fighters came as near as 30 meters to one Japanese plane and
45 meters to another, according to Japan's Self-Defense Forces. The
incident happened over international waters between 11 a.m. and midday
yesterday, the ministry said on its website. Japan's Foreign Ministry
protested via China's embassy in Tokyo, Chief Cabinet Secretary
Yoshihide Suga said.

The close encounters follow a near miss on May 24 amid tensions
between China and Japan over disputed territory. Ships and planes from
the countries have tailed one another around the East China Sea
islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese since Japan
bought three of them from a private owner in 2012. Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe has not held a summit with China since taking office in
2012.

Conclusions


The Calibration is finely tuned but at any moment it could deteriorate.

A Chinese SU-27 fighter flies over the East China Sea, in this
handout photo taken May 24, 2014 and released by the Defense Ministry
of Japan May 25, 2014.

http://news.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/medium/public/original_images/Jun2014/chinajet.jpg?itok=dAm52_1R

Japan should play a bigger part in resolving conflicts in the
Asia-Pacific region, where it is caught up in a territorial dispute
with neighbor China, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-12/japan-should-have-role-in-fixing-asia-conflicts-australia-says.html

"We see Japan taking an ever increasing role in some of the areas of
conflict, some of the challenging environments," Bishop said in a
phone interview from Tokyo today.

Australia's Defense Minister David Johnston, left, and Foreign
Minister Julie Bishop, center, pose for photos with Japan's Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe at Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Wednesday,
June 11, 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-12/japan-should-have-role-in-fixing-asia-conflicts-australia-says.html

Vietnam Says China Sent Six Warships to Rig in Disputed Seas

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/vietnam-says-china-sends-six-warships-to-rig-in-disputed-waters.html

Vietnam said China again shifted an oil rig it has placed in disputed
waters, with six warships guarding the structure as the two communist
countries continue their South China Sea stand-off.

The rig was moved for a third time and remains off Vietnam's coast in
an area claimed by both countries, the official Vietnam News reported,
citing information from the Vietnam Fisheries Surveillance Department.
There are now six Chinese warships, 38 coast guard vessels, 13 cargo
ships and 19 tugboats protecting it, the paper said.

By placing its oil rig in the disputed area last month, and in
constructing artificial islands near the Spratlys, China is mapping
out an aggressive strategy, Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at
the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra, said in a phone
interview.

"It's an escalation," he said. "We are really reaching a regional
crisis stage. It seems that China has reached a decision to go for
broke."

China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, with two-way trade rising
22 percent to $50.2 billion last year from 2012, according to
Vietnam's General Statistics Office. Vietnam and China aim to boost
two-way trade to $60 billion in 2015, according to an April 14
statement from Vietnam's government. Vietnam bought $37 billion of
goods from China last year, according to the statistics office.

02-DEC-2013 The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0212.pdf

I see the pivot to Asia as the encirclement of China, then the
shrinking of its operating theatre and then lighting the tinderbox
that is the periphery and Xinjiang might well morph into China's
Afghanistan.

You will recall that the architect of Russia's defeat in Afghanistan
was Zbigniew Brzezinski and he remains a foreign policy eminence grise
with the president's ear.

The US probably feels it holds a decisive hard power advantage at this
moment and given that the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that
decisive advantage leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has a
logic and momentum of its own. Therefore, I see the US being
increasingly determined to press its advantage. One might even posit
that calming down the Iranian front, allows the US to better
concentrate its energies on the pivot to Asia.

One of the key elements of the Pivot to Asia is the air-sea battle
concept. This concept envisages the battle beginning with a "blinding
attack" against Chinese anti-access facilities and incorporates
"distant blockade" operations. China's dependence on foreign oil is
increasing just as the US' dependency is decreasing. And
interestingly, given my belief that the Eastern seaboard is a fabulous
energy prize, that puts the Indian Ocean in many respects right into
the geopolitical frame. If you are considering ''distant blockade''
operations, one of those areas you will be blockading is this part of
the world, given the amount of energy that is likely to be sold into
Asia, in the future.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3543
Dollar Index 80.74
Japan Yen 102.08
Swiss Franc 0.8995
Pound 1.6796
Aussie 0.9373
India Rupee 59.315
South Korea Won 1016.85
Brazil Real 2.2330
Egypt Pound 7.1501
South Africa Rand 10.7516

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.74 [Top of the Range]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1,3543

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1260.76 [yesterday climbed to $1,265.32, the
highest level since May 28]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 104.56 [China has been lifting Prices]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.N14.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for July delivery climbed as much as 28 cents to $104.68 a barrel
in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at
$104.61 at 1:50 p.m. Sydney time. The contract settled at $104.41 on
June 9, the highest close since March 3. The volume of all futures
traded was about 6 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have
increased 6.3 percent this year.

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Palacio de Alvarado (the official Presidential residence), Brasília Photo Booth
Emerging Markets


Situated in a large park filled with flora and fauna typical to
Brazil, the President's house is a sort of modernism-lover's dream
home. It's spacious, with giant rolling doors on two sides. A cool
breeze practically howls through the living area, especially just
before a storm.

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The Itamaraty Palace, Brasília. The Palace boasts the largest hall without columns in South America.
Emerging Markets


This serves to draw your eye to the one vertical element in the room:
the spectacular spiral staircase. It's so wide, our guide pointed out,
that it doesn't need bannisters, because it's impossible to fall off.
Even so, a temporary bannister was installed to accommodate a visit
from Queen Elizabeth II.

Frontier Markets

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He said funding for humanitarian work in Somalia had "dropped off a cliff" even though a top U.N. official had warned of "worrying parallels" between now and 2010 - the year before a famine which killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Africa


Somalia was entering a critical phase and it was far too soon to
reduce the international effort to help it, Kay said. "Reducing it now
could have severe humanitarian and security consequences in the
region," he added.

International donors promised 1.8 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in
reconstruction aid for Somalia at a Brussels conference last
September. The 28-nation European Union, already the largest donor to
the country in the Horn of Africa, led the financial pledges,
committing 650 million euros.

Even so, Kay said there was around a $750 million funding gap for
humanitarian work in Somalia this year.

Neighboring Kenya has suffered a series of gun and grenade attacks in
recent months blamed on al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab or its
sympathizers, raising concern about spreading violence.

Kay said al Shabaab had had "a regional intent and capability" for
some time but the regional focus was "probably becoming even more
pronounced now as they are under pressure in Somalia".

"It poses a significant threat to security," he said. "This is an
organization with an agenda that is beyond just Somalia."

African Union forces may start to leave Somalia after elections
scheduled in 2016 but that depends on Somalia having credible security
forces in place and Kay said he was concerned not enough progress was
being made towards meeting that goal.

"If we don't increase our effort on that, we shan't do it," he said.

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The Rwandan government said on Wednesday it had killed five soldiers from neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after a group of them crossed the border into their country and opened fire.
Africa


"These actions by the DRC are jeopardizing the region's extensive
efforts to ensure peace, stability and development for all our
citizens," said Louise Mushikiwabo, Rwanda's Foreign Affairs Minister
and government spokesperson.

The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that more gas lies off the
shores of Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique than off Nigeria, Africa's
biggest energy producer.

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0EM0GY20140611?sp=true

Around 180 trillion cubic feet of gas has been found in Mozambique's
Rovuma Basin, according to Jose Branquinho, resource assessment
director at Mozambique's National Petroleum Institute. This would be
enough to supply, Germany, Britain, France and Italy for some 18
years.

"The Mozambique discoveries have changed the world - that's why people
are still interested in East Africa," Miles Donnelly, commercial
director at oil and gas exploration firm Bahari Resources, said on the
sidelines of the conference.

"They are on a scale which could be comparable to Qatar," he said,
referring to the world's top LNG exporter.

read more


03-JUN-2014 Mozambique Could Be the Next Qatar
Africa


Today, it is self-evident that Mozambique sits on gas reserves which
will [if the execution is optimal - and optimal execution around our
natural resources is a sine qua non of the #Africarising narrative] in
my opinion transform Mozambique into the next Qatar.

read more





South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.518% 2014
Africa


50,659.44 -76.98 -0.15%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.7523

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1503

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +28.398% 2014 [Africa's best in 2014]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,708.69 +141.63 +1.65%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.7573% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

41,642.56 +121.16 +0.29%

The U.N. Security Council is set to sanction Abubakar Shekau, leader
of Nigeria's Boko Haram, and its faction Ansaru, the first individual
and entity to be designated by the world body since the Islamist
militant group was blacklisted last month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-nigeria-boko-haram-un-idUSKBN0EM1S420140611

Boko Haram whose leader Abubakar Shekar taunted President Goodluck
Jonathan with the comment ''I am in your city.'' [or is it Cities?]
28-APR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2804.pdf

Boko Haram's Abubakar Shekau [The Taunter]

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02909/Abubakar-Shekau_2909100b.jpg

taunt
verb (used with object)
1. to reproach in a sarcastic, insulting, or jeering manner; mock.
2.to provoke by taunts; twit.
noun
3.an insulting gibe or sarcasm; scornful reproach or challenge.
4.Obsolete . an object of insulting gibes or scornful reproaches.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +9.743% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,354.73 -6.85 -0.29%

Ghana annual consumer price inflation rose to a four-year high of 14.8
percent in May.

The changing face of West African retail

http://www.businessworldghana.com/the-changing-face-of-west-african-retail/

As a growing middle class in West Africa drives a boom in consumer
demand, Actis, the London-based private equity firm, has earmarked
funds of over $500m for commercial property development across the
region's two biggest economies.

"We have easily over half a billion dollars for buildings we are
developing in Ghana and Nigeria," says Michael Chu'di Ejekam, director
of real estate in Actis' Lagos office.

Africa is home to the world's youngest and fastest-growing population,
according to McKinsey & Company, which estimates that household
expenditure in the continent will expand 63 percent to $1.4trn by
2020. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with an economy
that has been growing at around 6 percent for a decade and a rising
middle class with a history of high expenditure abroad.

South African chains such as Shoprite or Game have used new malls to
gain a foothold across their home continent, and international brands
are increasingly following suit. Clothing, automotives, food and
supermarket companies, including the likes of Porsche, Carrefour and
Dominos, have already entered Nigeria. Actis says it is in talks with
many more.

"Several years ago people didn't know if retail could work at all
here, but that question has been answered with a resounding yes.
There's a brand grab where business people are looking to bring in the
brands that are not here," Mr Ejekam says. "Major groups like
Debenhams have been exploring; and luxury retailers including
Salvatore Ferragamo, Burberry, Ralph Lauren are looking at ways of
coming into the market."

To succeed in the tough market, Actis says that retail groups must be
willing to adapt their offerings. That is something which Massmart is
focusing on. "Adaptability is very important in developing markets,"
says Brian Leroni, Massmart's corporate affairs executive. "In Nigeria
this has led to our developing a completely new format." The group
opened its first 'Value Mart', which targets less wealthy shoppers, in
January.

Massmart says that Nigeria's power privatisation process will improve
the country's business climate and "in our opinion, lead to a consumer
boom".

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.806
Kenyan Economy



Kenya's shilling dropped the most in seven weeks against the dollar as
tea prices retreated to the lowest in at least a year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-11/kenyan-shilling-retreats-most-in-seven-weeks-as-tea-prices-slump.html

Kenya's shilling dropped the most in seven weeks against the dollar as
tea prices retreated to the lowest in at least a year, cutting
earnings from the East African nation's largest foreign exchange.

The currency of the world's biggest exporter of black tea weakened 0.2
percent, the most on a closing basis since April 22, to 87.80 per
dollar by 4:42 p.m. in the capital, Nairobi. The shilling has lost 1.7
percent in 2014.

President Uhuru Kenyatta proposed a stabilization fund today to
cushion the tea industry, a day after the price for African tea
slipped 2.1 percent to $1.86 per kilogram (2.2 pounds) at an auction
in the port city of Mombasa, the lowest since at least June last year,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The country also relies on
tourism to bring in the greenback, and arrivals have dipped amid
warnings by some foreign governments to avoid travel to the Indian
ocean coast.

"There's an increase in demand for dollars and the inflows continue to
deteriorate because of a nosedive in tea prices and tourist arrivals
have reduced," Bernard Omenda, head of treasury at Nairobi-based
Equatorial Commercial Bank Ltd., said by phone.

Moves by the Central Bank of Kenya to take excess shillings off the
market through sales of repurchase agreements didn't stem the
currency's slide today. The institution sold 5 billion shillings ($57
million) of seven-day repos, according to its page on Bloomberg.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +9.835% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

150.09 -0.15 -0.10%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.908% 2014 and just above 3 1/2 month lows]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,832.09 +3.44 +0.07%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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