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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 15th of July 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

@alykhansatchu  looking forward to speaking to @BBCNuala @kasujja
#bbcnewsday about the BRICS the EU and Africa

read more



Nadine Gordimer: A life in quotes
Africa


Nothing factual that I write or say will be as truthful as my fiction.

He is at the epicentre of our time, ours in South Africa, and yours,
wherever you are. [re Nelson Mandela]

The gap between the committed and the indifferent is a Sahara whose
faint trails, followed by the mind's eye only, fade out in sand.

In a democracy -- the greatest veneration one can show the rule of law
is to keep a watch on it, and to reserve the right to judge unjust
laws and the subversion of the function of the law by the power of the
state. That vigilance is the most important proof of respect for the
law.

read more




China will dedicate itself to "perfecting" the role developing countries play in international affairs to give them better representation and a greater say, President Xi Jinping said ahead of a summit of BRICS nations Brazil.
Law & Politics


Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa are due on Tuesday to
sign off on a new development bank being launched by the BRICS
emerging market nations.

Officials from BRICS nations have said Shanghai will likely be the
headquarters, but an official involved in talks on the bank told
Reuters late on Monday in Brazil there still was no agreement among
the five on where the lender will be located.

China is also planning an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

"The Chinese people love peace. In the blood of the Chinese people
there are no genes for invading others or dominating the world. China
does not acknowledge the old logic of 'when a country is strong it
must dominate'," Xi said.

"China will resolutely pursue the path of peaceful development, to
proactively seek a peaceful international environment for its own
development, and will use its own development to promote world peace,"
the president added.

In a meeting with Indian Prime Narendra Modi in Brazil, Xi invited
India to become a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

"The two countries should join hands in setting global rules, so as to
raise the voice of developing countries," Xinhua cited Xi as saying.

Xi Jinping in Africa

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02518/jinping-2_2518987b.jpg

France sets up anti-Islamist force in Africa's Sahel

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28298230

France is to set up a new military operation in the Sahel region of
northern Africa in an effort to stop the emergence of jihadist groups.

About 3,000 French soldiers will be deployed, along with troops from
Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Chad.

On Monday France ended its military deployment in Mali, set up 18
months ago after an Islamist insurgency there.

French forces helped the Malian government recapture the north from
al-Qaeda-linked militants last year.

The new long-term force, named Operation Barkhane, will be based in
the Chadian capital Ndjamena, but will have a mandate to operate
across borders.

It will target Islamist extremists in Mali, Chad and Niger.

The French troops will be backed by six fighter jets, 20 helicopters
and three drones.

The main objective of Operation Barkhane is counter-terrorism, Defence
Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has said.

Conclusions


Hard Power is a powerful Lever with which France and others can tilt the Pitch.

Islamist groups and areas of influence via BBC

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28298230

read more


THE ROVING EYE Watch this caliph rip By Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics


So The Caliph is now a global superstar. Ever since Dr Ibrahim
al-Badri of Samarra, a minor Sunni cleric who impersonates
neo-medieval Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, showed up in the stone
pulpit of a Mosul mosque at the start of Ramadan, he's been on a roll.

He fully advertised his piece of transnational real estate - from the
suburbs of Aleppo to Mosul (and promised more takeovers). He cut his
own video - essentially his own, a monotone rap, dressed in trademark
Men in Black regalia. He eliminated the competition, essentially by
killing them all. He exalted the mujahid, inviting them to follow
jihad in the name of Allah. He condemned miscreants and hypocrites,
exalting the "victory of Muslims" from "the West to the East".

Modestly sporting a US$7,000 watch (or Chinese replica) and asking for
"corrections" in his behavior, The Caliph announced that his Islamic
State (IS) business, former ISIS, is not only about the Levant. Want
an IS passport? Just ask The Caliph.

He firmly set his sights on conquering Rome (Saracens sacked St
Peter's in 846); "You will conquer Rome and will be masters of the
world." It won't happen before Sunday though, so Pope Francis can
watch Argentina against Germany in peace without fear of decapitation.

But first, The Caliph seems to be ready to ride his holy camel
shouting "Allahu Akbar!" all the way to Baghdad and then Mecca. After
all, he also proclaimed that the 1916 Sykes-Picot colonial racket,
sorry, agreement between Britain and France is now null and void. No
wonder the House of Saud, that pristine fountain of courage, has
already massed 30,000 mercenaries, sorry, troops, on their border with
Iraq (until six months ago the Saudis were facilitating an Air and Bus
Jihad all the way to both Syria and Iraq; now they dread the boomerang
effect.)

Notorious French orientalist Olivier Roy is not impressed with all
this thunder. He brands The Caliph as "delirious" without dismissing
his cunning; "... as cautious and invisible as Mullah Omar, as
ambitious and megalomaniac as Osama bin Laden". Which prompts the
inevitable question; how come he's not on Double O Bama's
license-to-kill list and has not been droned into Mesopotamian sand?

Still, The Caliph is all over the place. His Salafi-jihadi Declaration
of Independence - not only from historic al-Qaeda but mostly from
those jaded/corrupt Arab monarchies and the Western intel apparatus
which has nurtured International Jihad for decades - is indeed
groundbreaking. Which explains the perplexity of the Empire of Chaos.
That good ol' "strategy" of projecting imperial/NATO power by proxy -
via jihadis for rent - now lies in shambles. The Caliph is the
ultimate jihadi Frankenstein.

No wonder the Obama lame-duck dinner, sorry, administration, is
contemplating, at least in Syria, the usual plan A, which is to
weaponize both sides (let Arabs kill Arabs). In Iraq, the plan still
being discussed in the Beltway might be to drone IS convoys. It won't
be a walk in the park because the IS military leadership is composed
of battlefield-experienced former Iraqi guerrillas. And they are not
foolish to start parading those gleaming white Toyotas in open desert
all over again now they have become instant celebrities.

On the political front, there are insistent rumors of an imminent
military coup in Baghdad, planned by the city's military commander,
Abdulamir al-Shumanni. The coup-in-the-wings' leaders claim they are
supported by both Washington and Tehran (fabulous job; they should be
summoned to help in the P5+1 nuclear negotiations). As for the Return
of the Living (Neo-con) Dead brigade in the US, they bet on the only
tainted horse they know: Ahmed Chalabi.

No matter his raw ambition, The Caliph will have to get his act
together. A lot of Syrian jihadi outfits have turned against IS. The
same thing is happening in Iraq; Sunni militias are turning against
them in Nineveh province.

Enter tribal Sunni sheikhs - the ghosts in this infernal machine. The
Caliph must have enough trusted moles to tell him that once the
sheikhs have finished using IS as a tool to "destabilize" the
al-Maliki administration in Baghdad, they will definitely advance to
smash the caliphate. This is an extremely temporary alliance of
interests - a sort of remix of the previous Islamic State in Iraq
having its emirate smashed because of the American cash-propelled
Anbar Awakening.

The notion that The Caliph will soon attack "the West" or the US is
bogus. IS terror incursions have happened so far in Irbil (in Iraq
Kurdistan), Basra and Damascus. All of these cities are relatively
close to IS's operational command. IS's reach does not extend to the
West. Even attacking Baghdad is a major challenge. They are not
competent enough to attack the Vatican-sized US embassy. Not to
mention that Sadrists militias in Sadr City, for instance, would
reduce them to dust. The most they can aspire to is to keep destroying
Sunni, Sufi and Shi'ite shrines.

In parallel, the really juicy story to be followed is that IS can
develop as the ideal, proxy weapon of choice for the Empire of Chaos -
and the House of Saud - to fight what could be described as the
Iran-Hezbollah-Syria-Iraq alliance. Exactly the opposite peddled by
this prodigy of wishful thinking.

Realistically, in geopolitical terms, The Caliph's hypothetical
journey to Rome is also a joke. IS is surrounded by hostile powers,
from Iran and Turkey to Egypt. If the Men in Black decided to cross
300 kilometers of desert to attack King Playstation's realm, also
known as Jordan, they would be all droned to death.

So now that he's announced himself as the new Osama, The Caliph had
better watch his back. Most probably he's a one-trick camel. He might
realize he's got a better shot at stardom by branding himself as the
second coming of Michael Jackson and start doing the Moonwalk (the
jihadi remix). What he will certain realize is that Bashar al-Assad's
Syrian Arab Army is the only game in town on the Syrian side in terms
of attacking and inflicting serious pain on IS. And on the Iraq side
there are even more options.

All coup rumors notwithstanding, al-Maliki will most likely remain in
power in Baghdad. And he will be fully weaponized not only by Tehran
but also Moscow. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is already
involved in helping to build what could be described as National Guard
brigades. They will go after IS big time. In a pincer movement,
attacks from Syria and from Iraq could destroy most of IS six months
from now.

The Caliph, apart from his mighty watch, may now hold a lot of weapons
and make money by selling oil, but his Caliphate is a mirage. Only one
thing is certain. Before it vanishes into the sands of time, there
will be blood. A lot of blood.

read more


Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (أبو بكرالبغدادي)
Law & Politics


Conclusions


Beware the Abu Bakrs Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abubakar Shekau

"We confirm that we still adhere to our pledge of allegiance to our
sheikh and emir, Ayman al-Zawahri" AQIM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/14/us-iraq-security-qaeda-idUSKBN0FJ24320140714

read more


As advanced societies are de-politicised, the changes are both subtle and spectacular.
Law & Politics


In everyday discourse, political language is turned on its head, as
Orwell prophesised in 1984. “Democracy” is now a rhetorical device.

read more


@WilliamJHague · Renewal in politics is good, and holding office is not an end in itself. After 26 years as an MP time will be right for me to move on
Law & Politics


@WilliamJHague  Tonight I am standing down as Foreign Secretary after
4 years to serve as Leader of the House of Commons

read more


@williamjhague It really was a Pleasure to meet the Foreign Secretary Thank You Aly-Khan 892 days ago
Law & Politics


@williamjhague and where it all started

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01708/will_1708350c.jpg

Conclusions


I think very highly of William Hague [I might disagree with some of
the Policies] from the moment he spoke that day long time ago at the
Conservative Party Conference.

read more



Iran nuclear negotiators under pressure after leader's speech
Law & Politics


In a public address filled with technical detail, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said last week Iran needs to significantly increase its
uranium enrichment capacity, clashing with the powers' push for it to
be reduced to minimise the risk of nuclear bombmaking, as a July 20
deadline for a deal nears.

One Western diplomat said the delegation appeared "taken aback" by
Khamenei's remarks at such a sensitive time in the nuclear
negotiations - just ahead of the July 20 deadline for a deal. Two
Iranian sources confirmed that assessment.

"In ostensibly expressing support for the Iranian negotiating team,
close scrutiny of Khamenei's speech shows that in reality his remarks
were aimed at severely curtailing his team's room for manoeuvre,
making it effectively impossible to bridge gaps with the stance of the
(six powers)," according to a Western intelligence analysis of the
speech seen by Reuters.

Khamenei suggested that Iran needed 190,000 centrifuge machines in the
long term - a 19-fold increase in its current operational capacity to
refine uranium.

U.S. and European negotiators want Iran to have a figure in the low
thousands to ensure it cannot quickly amass enough for atomic bomb
fuel, should it someday choose to do so

"In our assessment, Khamenei's remarks were not coordinated with the
Iranian negotiating team in Vienna at present, and were intended to
cut off their ability to negotiate effectively," the intelligence
analysis said.

"Furthermore, they were aimed at sending a clear message to the
international community that the negotiating team does not have the
mandate to compromise on the most critical issues under discussion -
above all, Iran's uranium enrichment capacity."

Iran expert Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said of
Khamenei's speech that "drawing public red lines won't help the
negotiators to narrow the gaps" in positions.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3616
Dollar Index 80.19 holding above a two-month low of 79.740 touched on July 1.
Japan Yen 101.60 Bank of Japan tweaked its growth forecast lower
Swiss Franc 0.8920
Pound 1.7084
Aussie 0.9391
India Rupee 60.185
South Korea Won 1027.41
The won slid 0.8 percent to 1,026.36 per dollar as of 2:04 p.m. in
Seoul, trimming this year’s advance to 2.3 percent, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 1,026.74, the weakest level since
May 21
Brazil Real 2.2102
Egypt Pound 7.1504
South Africa Rand 10.6978

The dollar has strengthened 0.4 percent in the past three months,
according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes that tracks 10
developed-nation currencies. The yen gained 0.8 percent, while the
euro weakened 1.2 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 80.19

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today and the
House Committee on Financial Services tomorrow.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3616

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 month Chart INO 1307.97 [finally cracked after a 6 week Upswing]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d1

Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 100.45 [very oversold unless Iran is now]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.U14.E&v=d1&t=c&a=50&w=1

WTI for August delivery was at $100.92 a barrel in electronic trading
on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 1 cent, at 2:52 p.m. Sydney
time. The contract closed at $100.83 on July 11, the lowest since May
12. The volume of all futures traded was about 19 percent below the
100-day average. Prices have advanced 2.5 percent this year.

Conclusions


I think its a Big Buy below $100.00.00

Alternatively sell $90.00 Puts.

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Zambia released photographs of President Michael Sata chairing a cabinet meeting on Monday, allaying speculation that the 77-year-old leader was critically ill.
Africa


Sata's spokesperson emailed the photos to the press on Monday. Sata
also posted the same photographs and a statement on his Facebook page.
His previous post had been five weeks ago, fuelling talk of his ill
health because the page was updated at least once a week before then.

"I am determined to ensure that our government scales up interventions
aimed at accelerating rural development in order to improve the
people's living standards," Sata said in his statement on Facebook.

read more






I predict African equity markets will make it a three-year bull year phenomenon 20-JAN-2014
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.6978

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1504

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +25.499% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,508.98 +107.82 +1.28%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +3.888% 2014 [2008 highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

42,936.06 +103.21 +0.24%

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Boasting a GDP of over $100billion, Lagos as a distinct economy is larger than the entire economies of Ghana, Kenya or Uganda Damina
Africa


The greater Lagos area is home to over 20 million Nigerians, (more
than 11% of the country’s total population), and the local Lagos
economy serves as the vital spinal axis undergirding Nigeria’s $522
billion economy, the largest in Africa. Boasting a GDP of over
$100billion, Lagos as a distinct economy is larger than the entire
economies of Ghana, Kenya or Uganda, and the economies of US states
Virginia, North Carolina, or Georgia. With a GDP per capita of $4,000,
the average Lagos resident has a higher consumer purchasing power than
the average Ukrainian, Indonesian or the Filipino. In short, Lagos is
emblematic of the fast growing African consumer market. Lagos is
simply the terra firma of Africa’s economic renaissance.
With the confirmed presence of Boko Haram terrorist operations in
Lagos, the fundamental risks to the Nigerian economic outlook in 2014
have multiplied exponentially. A major bomb attack in Lagos will
accelerate capital market flight, weaken the Naira, dent economic
growth, reduce corporate earnings and slash equity market values.

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''Jonathan! Jonathan! “Bring back our army”. says Abubakar Shekau #Bringbackourgirls [kind of surreal] Video
Africa


Watch that Video and You will agree [i hope] that my characterisation
of the Shekau as the 'Taunter'' was not far off the mark.

read more


Boko Haram's Abubakar Shekau [The Taunter]
Africa


taunt
verb (used with object)
1.
to reproach in a sarcastic, insulting, or jeering manner; mock.
2.
to provoke by taunts; twit.
noun
3.
an insulting gibe or sarcasm; scornful reproach or challenge.
4.
Obsolete . an object of insulting gibes or scornful reproaches.

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — Suspected Islamic extremists bombed a major
bridge on a northeast Nigerian highway, further limiting access to
base camps in the Sambisa Forest where scores of kidnapped girls are
believed to be held captive

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/boko-haram-leader-demands-fighters-swap-for-girls/2014/07/14/c6b8ebc6-0b37-11e4-bd2c-919fc31dc2e6_story.html

Gunmen destroyed most of the bridge on the road between Maiduguri and
Biu on Saturday night, the spokesman for the Nigerian Vigilante Group,
Abbas Gava, told The Associated Press.

“The bridge has now collapsed and it is impossible for vehicles to
cross over the bridge from either side,” he said. It is the fourth
major bridge destroyed in the area in recent months.

It would be the first reported bombing by Boko Haram in Lagos —
Nigeria’s commercial capital, an Atlantic port and probably the
continent’s most populous city with some 20 million people. At least
four people died in the June 25 blasts, including an alleged female
suicide bomber, according to Western diplomats who spoke on condition
of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Nigeria’s government, which often plays down insurgent attacks, said
there was one explosion caused by a gas cylinder. But the diplomats
said there is clear evidence of a car bomb exploding on the crowded
road outside the depot, backed up with tankers, and of a person at the
entrance gate believed to be a woman wearing a suicide bomb vest.

read more


“We were the ones that detonated bomb in Abuja, that corrupt city,” Shekau
Africa


“We were responsible for the bomb in Kano, in Plateau. We were the
ones that sent a female bomber to the refinery in Lagos,” Shekau says
of other recent bombing in the video, which the AP obtained through
similar channels used for previous messages.

read more


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +10.489% 2014
Africa


2,370.51 +4.79 +0.20%

Ghana Drops Plans for Longer-Term Debt as Cedi Plunges

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-11/ghana-drops-plans-for-longer-term-debt-as-cedi-plunges.html

Ghana’s central bank held off on selling cedi bonds with maturities
more than three years as the world’s worst-performing currency makes
longer-dated debt less attractive, according to Databank Financial
Services Ltd.

The Bank of Ghana will issue 800 million cedis ($237 million) of
three-year bonds in the second half of 2014, with sales this month and
October, it said in a circular on its website. There will be no sales
of five- or seven-year debt, the longest duration the West African
nation offers in local-currency notes, according to the calendar.
Foreign investors are only able to buy notes three years and longer.

Ghana’s currency slumped 30 percent this year against the dollar,
spurring inflation and eroding cedi assets. The value of oil, gold and
cocoa exports dropped in the first five months of 2014 as the
government spent 47 percent of revenue on salaries from 44 percent a
year earlier. Bank of Ghana Governor Kofi Wampah raised the key
lending rate on July 9 to a decade high of 19 percent.

“Because of the depreciation of the cedi, it will be very difficult
for the market to invest in long-term issues, unless it will come at a
very high cost,” Sampson Akligoh, an economist at Accra-based
Databank, which has the country’s biggest mutual fund, said by phone
today. “The strategies for issuing longer-term bonds depend on foreign
investor appetite and how the pension funds will have an interest.”

In his budget for 2014, Finance Minister Seth Terkper said financing
strategies to mitigate debt risk will include “lengthening the
maturity profile of domestic debt through the issuance of longer-dated
bonds.” He didn’t answer calls made to his mobile phone today. Deputy
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson was in a meeting and couldn’t
immediately comment, said a woman who answered his phone and didn’t
give her name.

Ghana canceled a five-year bond auction in March as yields on other
maturities rose. An offer of seven-year debt was halted in May. Yields
on the country’s benchmark 91-day Treasury bills climbed 487 basis
points this year to 24.1 percent last week. The last sale of
three-year debt, held April 14, saw yields jump 250 basis points to
25.48 percent.

Moody’s Investors Service cut Ghana’s credit rating one step to B2 on
June 28, five levels below investment grade, citing a budget gap it
estimated will exceed 10 percent of gross domestic product for a third
year. The cedi fell 2.9 percent to 3.4101 by 1:57 p.m. in Accra.

“The deficit reduction strategy remains a bit unclear to the market,”
Akligoh said. “The government would be aware that in the circumstances
investors would be more committed to the shorter end of the market
than the longer.”

Ghana’s bond calender for the second half involves a total debt sale
of 17.44 billion cedis, including 3.9 billion cedis each of two- and
one-year bonds, and 4.42 billion cedis each of 182- and 91-day bills.

Look at Ghana where the president claims he is looking for a
'home-grown' solution to a situation of his making and frankly there
isn't one 2 JUNE 2014

http://allafrica.com/stories/201406030221.html

Globally, Luanda in Angola and N’Djamena in Chad are the most
expensive cities out of 211, followed by Hong Kong, Singapore and
Zurich

http://blogs.wsj.com/middleeast/2014/07/13/as-rents-rise-so-too-does-dubais-rank-for-expensive-living/

“The port of Maputo is gradually recovering its role as a great
transit point for the Southern Africa region,” said the EIU analysts

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/07/14/maputo-regains-its-place-as-a-trade-hub-for-southern-africa/

Development of the port of Maputo and the railway lines that link the
facility, which is used by companies from South Africa and Zimbabwe,
will be “great drivers of growth in 2014-18,” said the Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU) in its latest report on Mozambique.

Last year the construction sector saw growth of around 11.3 percent,
whilst transport grew by 16.1 percent, which has diversified the
“drivers of economic activity beyond coal mining, which  as new mines
have started operating has allowed for substantial growth in the ports
of Beira (centre) and Nacala (north).

“The port of Maputo is gradually recovering its role as a great
transit point for the Southern Africa region,” said the EIU analysts,
who noted that at the beginning of the 1970s the Mozambican capital
was a great regional trade hub.

The cargo that passed through the port of Maputo in 2013 – 17 million
tons – beat the previous record, from 1973.

read more





14-JUL-2014 :: The Euro Bond Gets off to a Flier
Kenyan Economy


On Friday, the recently issued 10-year dollar denominated Government
of Kenya bond reached a record low yield of 6.195 per cent. This bond
was sold at a yield of 6.875% and a price of 100. Buyers have so far
bagged close to a five point gain which in the bond world represents a
spectacular return in such a short space of time.

The $2 billion worth of Eurobonds – the largest for an Africa
sovereign excluding South Africa – spread over two tranches and over
four times oversubscribed, with an order book of $8.8 billion, were
sold you will recall less than a month ago. Five point gains on a bond
in less than 20 trading sessions is kind of legendary and the
President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Cabinet secretary Henry Rotich should
see the price action as strong confirmation of their macroeconomic
credentials. I prefer price action over words and the price action has
been breath taking. It would be churlish not to give credit to madam
Lagarde’s IMF which institution has invested heavily in Kenya Inc. and
might well have sprinkled some fairy dust.

However, nothing goes up forever and investors might look to bag gains
because we are now entering the bird in the hand territory. The Kenya
shilling has also proved real resilient and my Friend on Twitter
@cedricmuhammad characterised the shilling as ‘’The Teflon Shilling’’
which characterisation deserved an A Star. The shilling has held and
bounced off two and a half year lows at 88.20 on several occasions
over the last few weeks. The shilling whilst down about 1.5 per cent
versus the dollar in 2014 remains only behind the Malawi Kwacha [which
has rallied +8.8 per cent over the same period] when you look at the
African currency league table. Look at John Dramani Mahama’s Ghana @
JDMahama, whose macro-economic credentials have been shredded and the
currency has now fallen 30 per cent and off a cliff in 2014. Teflon
shilling indeed and another powerful and bullish signal in the noise.
In fact, I have a 48 month forecast of 60 for the shilling versus the
dollar. I tested my forecast in a seminar I was hosting for the
Mandharini property development in Kilifi just to test the reaction. I
will return to that forecast in the near future because it’s going to
scramble a lot of models, I am sure.

Returning to the Eurobond price action, this will surely be a catalyst
for wrestling local interest rates lower. The spread between GOK USD
borrowing rates and GOK local currency rates is like an elastic band
that is now stretched too far and will snap back by way of local Kenya
shilling interest rates easing. The net liquidity add of $1.4 billion
net is yet to transmit through the system and this will guide rates
lower. You will notice that Kenya Commercial Bank [who last week
launched an important collaboration with Safaricom at the intersection
point of technology and finance targeted at SME’s [one million within
12 months according to @BobCollymore] under the name of Biashar@smart]
now have mortgage rates that carry a 12 per cent handle. I have
followed markets from the time I was nine and in Mombasa and used to
wait for my dad’s Economist which would turn up every Tuesday via
Wason’s. What I have learnt over these near enough four decades, is
that when our mortgage rates reach single digits, we are going to see
the next big rally in property prices. The move into single digits is
a tipping point and I have seen it happen all over the world. Property
prices rose more than threefold over the last decade in Kenya. I told
the Mandharini property seminar that I am predicting a similar outcome
over the next decade.

What about the bifurcation I hear everyone asking as I write this in
the early morning in the wonderfully luminescent green that is Kiambu
at this time of year. It is a fact that the ‘’Coastal Insurgency’’
[Edmund Blair via Reuters] has gained in intensity and in virulence. I
wrote on Sep tember 3, 2012 that:

‘’My concern remains that what appear like uncorrelated spikes and
paroxysms of violence conflate, become more broad based and amplify.’’

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.756

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.64% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

151.19 +0.07 +0.05%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.4872% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,902.30 0.12 0.00%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Sameer to spin off tyre subsidiary in Sh1bn deal @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Sameer-to-spin-off-tyre-subsidiary-in-Sh1bn-deal/-/539550/2383812/-/27woeyz/-/index.html

Sameer chief executive Allan Walmsley says the group has identified a
strategic investor who will buy about a 50 per cent stake in the
tyre-making unit. The deal will see the manufacturer get a cash
injection of over Sh1 billion to finance the purchase of new
machinery.

“We are creating a separate legal entity in which we are offering a
maximum of 50 per cent equity to the technical partner in exchange for
more than Sh1 billion in cash,” said Allan Walmsley, Sameer’s chief
executive.

Sameer terminated its partnership with Bridgestone last year, accusing
it of inadequate technical and sales support.

This saw Bridgestone sell its 14.9 per cent stake in the Nairobi
Securities Exchange-listed firm for Sh207.4 million to Sameer
Investments Limited (SIL), a company associated with billionaire
Naushad Merali.

This pushed SIL’s ownership in Sameer to 72.15 per cent from the
previous 57.25 per cent. The 14.9 per cent was to be held temporarily
by SIL before being sold to a new partner, a move that would have
replicated the arrangement with Bridgestone.

The strategy has however been revised with the move to spin off the
mainstay tyre business in which the new investor will buy the stake of
up to 50 per cent.

Tyre manufacture and distribution is Sameer’s biggest business,
accounting for 97.1 per cent and 76.6 per cent of sales and net
earnings respectively last year.

Commercial properties account for the rest of the business. Sameer is
the sole-owner of the Sameer Industrial Park and Sameer Export
Processing Zone. It also has a 25 per cent shareholding in Sameer
Business Park that leases space to banks and other retailers.

Sameer’s net profit in the year ended December more than doubled to
Sh401.1 million, helped by the sale of a two-acre land along Mombasa
Road for 297.5 million.

It made a gain of Sh255 million from the land sale, which helped to
boost earnings as operating profit before tax remained unchanged at
Sh1 billion.

Sameer share price data here +53.398% 2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDA%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           7.90
Total Shares Issued:          278342000.00
Market Capitalization:        2,198,901,800
EPS:             1.44
PE:                 5.486

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


Trading picked up speed with Equity turnover clocking 769.637m.
The Stock Market is poised on the cusp of an acceleration higher as
Lower interest rates [And Mortgage Rates are signalling the reduction
is gaining traction] juice the stock market.
We have encountered a period of circumspection of late.
That Period is near or at completion.
Kakuzi +73.68% in 2014 and Kenya Commercial Bank are at all time highs.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi firmed 0.61% to close at 165.00 and set a Fresh All Time High
for the 2nd consecutive session. Kakuzi traded 149,200 shares [0.76%
of the issued shares which total 19,600,000] worth 24.617m. This was
the highest volume session for Kakuzi in 2014. Kakuzi is +73.68% in
2014.
Eaagads rallied 4.48% to close at 35.00 and traded 10,000 shares.
Eaagads is +47.36% in 2014 and in fact post Rea Vipingo the Entire
Sector is expected to post very sharp absolute returns as egregious
Net Asset value Discounts continue to narrow.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased 0.4% to close at 12.30 and traded 8.040m shares worth
99.192m. Safaricom is +14.41% in 2014 and has corrected 6.106% off a
record closing High of 13.10 reached in April this Year. We are at the
bottom of the Trading Rage and overdue a Bounce. I expect a sharp
lowering in local interest rates [The Mortgage Market is proving a
Forward Indicator in this regard] and this will make Safaricom's
dividend pay out even more attractive and support the next leg higher
beyond 13.50.

Nation Media turned 0.98% higher to close at 309.00 and traded 50,800
shares worth 15.728m.

LongHorn Kenya rallied +3.53% to close at 16.10 and was trading at
17.00 +9.32% at the Finish Line. LongHorn Kenya is +19.25% in 2014.

Car and General was high ticked 6.02% to close at 44.00 [100 shares traded].



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank improved 0.9708% to regain an All Time High
Closing High of 52.00 which was previously reached on two occasions
and on the 1st and 2nd of this month. Kenya Commercial Bank printed
trades at 53.50 +3.88% all time intra day high price prints into the
Closing Bell. This Move see the Price head to 55.00.

Equity Bank rebounded +1.12% to close at 45.00 and was trading at
45.25 +1.69% at the closing Bell. Equity Bank traded 4.924m shares
worth 222.497m and 28.909% of todays turnover at the Securities
Exchange. Equity Bank rallied +52.845% start of the Year through 2nd
July and set a winning sequence of Record All Time Highs.
Subsequently, Equity Bank corrected 7.446% off that All Time High of
47.00 reached 2nd July, through July 11th. Equity Bank has been in a
steep Up Trend since the middle of April and the less than 10%
correction [now complete] is actually a bullish chart signal. Equity
Bank is 4.255% below a record High.

Standard Chartered Bank rallied +2.243% to close at 319.00 on the same
day that they announced they would offer Mortgage Loans from 10.9%
[The Ratcheting lower of mortgage interest rates is an important
Signal in the Noise and a fundamentally bullish one for Real Estate
and Asset Prices in general]. Standard Chartered traded 102,800 shares
worth 32.872m. Standard Chartered trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of
10.605 which looks cheap versus its Peers especially when you plug in
the Q1 2014 Earnings Acceleration. Standard Chartered has plenty of
head room in the price.

BRITAM EA firmed +1.204% to close at 21.00 and was trading at 21.25
+2.41% at the Closing Bell. BRITAM EA has been a beehive of Activity
of late, raising Funds through a Corporate Bond, snaffling up Equity
Bank's stake in HFCK and signally the intent to increase its own stake
in Equity Bank. BRITAM EA has rallied +38.61% in 2014 and more than 3x
faster than the All Share Index.

Trans-Century completed the acquisition of 100.0% of Cable Holdings
Kenya through a share-swap transaction with Aureos East Africa Fund
(Aureos) and has thus increased its effective shareholding in E.A.
Cables from 64.4% to 68.4%. Transcentury allotted 6.3m new ordinary
shares to Aureos and in exchange.Trans-Century closed unchanged at
25.25.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


ARM Cement closed unchanged at 82.00 and traded 721,800 shares worth
59.217m. ARM holds its AGM this Friday at the Laico Regency and has
rallied 7.89% over the last 4 weeks. The News that Cement consumption
accelerated 25% in the first 5 months of the year validated the
Bulking Up and EAC accelerated Capacity Expansion Trajectory.
East African Portland cement traded 7.547% higher to close at 85.50 on
light volume of 1,200 shares.

EABL closed unchanged at 300.00 and traded 144,800 shares worth
43.484m. EABL has traded a 221.00-304.00 range in 2014 and I expect a
move through 2014 Highs in reasonably short order. The Up Swing might
reach as far as 330.00.

Olympia Capital was high ticked +8.08% to close at 5.35.

BAT traded 2,000 shares at 631.00 -7.21%. The Equilibrium Price is
higher than todays closing price especially after some better than
expected H1 2014 Earnings.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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