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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 28th of July 2014

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#Mindspeak on @Twitter

@IMwauraKimani  @alykhansatchu Happy to hear that @JoshuaOigara as
chairman of the KBA will lower the mortgage rates to as low as 10%
@KCBGroup #MindSpeak
@KenyanSam  Some things we must totally erase from our mind and
vocabulary like "To give up" @alykhansatchu @JoshuaOigara #Mindspeak
@KCBGroup  In closing, @JoshuaOigara implores us: "You only live once.
If you do it right, once is enough". - #Mindspeak
@bobcollymore  "The ones who are doing nothing shouldn't stop the ones
who are doing something" says @JoshuaOigara  at #Mindspeak
@bobcollymore  "Distinguish the signal from the noise" @JoshuaOigara #Mindspeak
@KenyanSam  Joshua Oigara: "The only thing that stands between you and
your dream is the will to try and the determination to see it through"
@bobcollymore  Looking forward to hearing what one Mr @JoshuaOigara
of  @KCBGroup has to say for himself at #Mindspeak today.
@alykhansatchu  If you have passion and determination you don't need
an alarm clock to wake you up @JoshuaOigara @KCBGroup #mindspeak
@carolinekere  @alykhansatchu @JoshuaOigara I never forget his 1st
#Mindspeak,his father told him "Your education IS your inheritance". I
pass that on
@swaggerfarm #MindSpeak was quite awesome today. Some describing it as
kind of spiritual. @Joshuaoigara @alykhansatchu
@reHerBitated  RT @WaviMuigai: Become better than yourself tomorrow.
Outcompete yourself - JO #Mindspeak @JoshuaOigara @KCBGroup @waithash
@JacobNyaundi  @alykhansatchu thank you for hosting the #MindSpeak
forum.@joshuaoigara thank you too for telling me to believe in the
power of vision.
@NaphKrashHollic  "@KCBGroup: Your character speaks more about you
than what people say about you out there.  -JO #Mindspeak"
@waithash  @JoshuaOigara is the CEO that I admire most in Kenya. ~
@bobcollymore  #Mindspeak. @alykhansatchu pic.twitter.com/FkrwnUmyKZ
@DavidNgua  Methinks @alykhansatchu should televise #Mindspeak to
challenge our corporate culture & train #youth thru the #thought
#leaders he invites
@fredgituthu  ''@alykhansatchu Out compete yourself says @joshuaoigara
#Mindspeak who is Rudisha competing with but himself
pic.twitter.com/WYXh1icVR2'' #fb
@Mananashah  @KCBGroup I would really appreciate if i could watch
today's recorded #Mindspeak event online. Thanks
@marmbithi  My name is @bobcollymore CEO @SafaricomLtd & I have a
question #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi cc @JoshuaOigara @KCBGroup
@MwihakiGachanja  @JoshuaOigara That was truly excellent.#Mindspeak
@alykhansatchu @KCBGroup
@IsaacTN  #Mindspeak, thanks for all the posts, inspired - Mindspeak on Twitter!
@NjagiNjagz  THIS ~> "@dennis_makori: @JoshuaOigara: @KCBGroup aims to
float a corporate Eurobond by 2015. Working at the credit rating.
@MaggieIreri: #mindspeak "we are in the era of handshakes and
collaborations" Joshua Oigara @alykhansatchu
@vickvickings  Even in a period of turbulence in South Sudan, we've
been able to setup two new branches in Juba.   #Mindspeak @KCBGroup
@MuigaiDennis  " #Mindspeak your greatest challenge is to out compete
yourself. To be better today than you were yesterday @JoshuaOigara
@MaggieIreri  @JoshuaOigara reminds us " great battles are won through
the belief of one person" . Are you THE PERSON?? #mindspeak
@bobcollymore  Mr @JoshuaOigara has given an exceptional and truly
inspirational exposition at #Mindspeak this morning
@ashawil  Our vision is to be a top tier bank in Africa by 2019 today
we are at 41 says @joshuaoigara  #MindSpeak
@KKombani  Of Mindset of Scarcity - with @JoshuaOigara #Mindspeak
@alykhansatchu @bobcollymore
@bharatthakrar  20h This is our time @JoshuaOigara at #MINDSPEAK. Very
inspiring talk to a very lively audience pic.twitter.com/QrvF27ePtI
@dennis_makori @JoshuaOigara: The only thing between you and your
dream is the will to try and the belief that it is possible.
@alykhansatchu #Mindspeak

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@alykhansatchu Jul 26 My name is @bobcollymore and I have a question #Mindspeak @InterConNairobi cc @JoshuaOigara

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated
warriors go to war first and then seek to win"
-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack,
we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive;
when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when
far away, we must make him believe we are near."
-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"Opportunities multiply as they are seized."
-- Sun Tzu

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"You name it, the world is aflame," Gary Samore, a former national-security aide in the Obama Administration, told Peter Baker, of the Times, the other day.
Law & Politics

"We always have a mix of complicated interests. That's not unusual.
What's unusual is there's this outbreak of violence and instability

Border Patrol finds an average of one corpse a day in the badlands
near the U.S.-Mexico border; in the past 15 years, the toll has
reached 5,570, exceeding all U.S. combat deaths for the wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan combined.


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No matter how and when the conflict between Hamas and Israel ends, two things are certain.
Law & Politics

The first is that Israel will be able to claim a tactical victory. The
second is that it will have suffered a strategic defeat.


The Game Changer has been how Social Media has meant for the first
time the Framing of the conflict is now being done from the ground up.
Israel has lost control of the framing of its conflict and entirely.
Aly-Khan Satchu

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Why no Arab state cries for Gaza By Ehsan Ahrari
Law & Politics

Considering that the Arab autocrats view the entire world through the
prism of how new global events might affect the durability of their

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July 24, 2014 East Africa Rising By Robert Kaplan
Law & Politics

The Greater Indian Ocean is the maritime organizing principle of
geopolitics, uniting the entire arc of Islam (including the Red Sea
and the Persian Gulf), East Africa, the Indian subcontinent and
Southeast Asia. But while economic dynamism has focused more on the
Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia over the past quarter-century,
lately the most intriguing success story has been East Africa. So
while the situations look dire in Ukraine and Gaza this week, take a
moment to look at a part of the world -- once deemed hopeless -- that
is quietly experiencing a regeneration.

From Mozambique northward to the confines of Somalia even, there has
been sustained progress and renewed hope. Over the past ten years,
annual GDP growth rates have averaged 8 percent in Mozambique, 7
percent in Tanzania, 5 percent in Kenya and 10 percent in Ethiopia.
Tens of billions of dollars are in the process of being poured into
Mozambique and Tanzania to tap into vast offshore deposits of natural
gas intended to feed growing demand in both South and East Asia, at
the other end of the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, hydrocarbon exploration
is occurring in northwestern Kenya and off of Kenya's coast, as well
as in the interior reaches of East Africa, particularly in the Great
Rift Valley basin stretching through parts of Uganda, the Democratic
Republic of the Congo and Tanzania.

Exploring for energy is not the only development in East Africa. A
growing middle class with an attendant consumer sector -- along with
increased economic and political integration -- is contributing to
significant foreign interest in building road, harbor, rail and power
projects that will connect these Indian Ocean countries with Africa's
interior. Such projects will also make these countries a maritime and
energy center on which the Indian subcontinent and Asia partly depend.

Even Somalia, long isolated because of its civil war and Islamist
insurgency, is no longer quite as cut off from global economic
interests as it once was. The radical al Shabaab group is still a
guerrilla threat, but it has lost substantially the capability of
defeating and replacing the Somali government. A multiyear effort by
African Union peacekeepers, with extensive Western security and
economic backing, has led to the group's degradation. And thanks to
counterpiracy operations from a host of world navies, Somali piracy is
just not the threat it once was. As Somalia slowly and tenuously moves
in the direction of stabilization, there is interest from foreign
companies in exploring for minerals in the country's interior and for
hydrocarbons off the Somali coast -- for the rich offshore natural gas
fields of Somalia's southern neighbors may extend farther north.

Even the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo -- to the west of
Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda -- may be on the long march to greater
stability as peacekeepers from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi have
been making some headway against Rwandan-backed guerrillas there. If
this trend continues, there is sure to be more foreign interest in the
region's vast yet underdeveloped mining sector, even as Uganda becomes
a hub for a cross-border trade in hydrocarbons and consumer goods for
central-east Africa. Rwanda, too, has attracted investment in its
agriculture and light manufacturing sectors -- the fruit of greater
stability there also.

Of course, nearby South Sudan has been going in the opposite
direction, toward greater dissolution. The Western-encouraged breakup
of Sudan in 2011 has thus far tragically backfired, with tribal
animosities inflamed by an internal battle over the hydrocarbon spoils
of the new nation in the south. Unity in South Sudan existed only as
long as there was a common threat in Khartoum. That threat now absent,
distrust has spiraled into a seemingly irreconcilable armed conflict
between the once brothers-in-arms.

The overall trend in this vast region is dominated by increasing
foreign investment in the pursuit of natural resources, but this level
of investment would simply not be possible without greater political
and economic stabilization itself. Governments here and elsewhere in
Africa are no longer driven by the same statist ideas of the sort that
once dominated the continent, especially during the Cold War when
socialism was the philosophical avatar of too many African leaders.
While little may have changed in terms of who rules over these African
states (with often the same political parties in control as during the
Cold War), the difference has come in the reward of capital now within
reach for the resources over which these governments hold sovereignty.
Put another way, the opportunity cost of not developing a country's
resources is a political calculation leaders in East Africa are no
longer willing to wager.

Certainly the defeat of the Soviet Union had a positive effect on
Africa, albeit delayed and indirect, but it has not been Western
liberalism that has succeeded in Africa so much as pragmatism. For it
is the institution of the ruling party that affirms political
continuity across much of the East Africa region, even as countries in
East Africa have achieved consistent and strong economic growth. After
all, Ethiopia's government is by no means a democratic regime; neither
is Rwanda's. Yet Ethiopia has averaged a 10 percent annual growth in
GDP and Rwanda 8 percent over the past decade or so. Thus, to say that
Western-style democracy has succeeded in Africa is a narrow version of
the truth. More truthful is the fact that what is transpiring
constitutes Asian-like pragmatism with African characteristics.
Further encouraging this is the large-scale presence of the Chinese
nearly everywhere in Africa, scouring for minerals, metals and
hydrocarbons, and building transportation infrastructure as a
consequence. For the Africans, the Chinese are, in part, symbols of
economic dynamism without the stern moral lectures about democracy
that they get from the West.

Examples of Asian-like pragmatism are in evidence throughout the
continent. Banished are political leaders in countries such as
Mozambique and Tanzania, willing to oppose the development of vast
reaches of their countries -- and the economic potential therein --
for the sake of internal political control. Others, such as the
political leadership of Uganda and Rwanda, will embrace economic
liberalism, as long as political freedoms do not challenge the ruler's
interests. East Africa has the edge over regions elsewhere in the
continent because of its geographical links to Asia and the Indian
subcontinent by way of the Indian Ocean.

The real test will come as the wealth from natural resources continues
to accumulate. Will that money be stolen by new elites or will it
diffuse throughout societies, so that the result is more modern middle
classes that can, in turn, stabilize and expand effective institutions
and a culture of civility and human rights? The risk of another
descent into rampant corruption and misrule is real, since hydrocarbon
and mineral wealth are of the kind whose profits can be concentrated
into relatively few hands. The bottom-line question is this: Will the
presidency control the hydrocarbons, such as is the case in Angola or
Nigeria, or will the institutions of the state and the private sector
be empowered to develop and adjudicate the pursuit of Africa's
emerging resources?

One thing is clear: Economic change is so ever-present and vibrant
throughout East Africa that the region's geographical orientation
itself may be changing. Rather than be part of a once-lost and
anarchic continent, the area from Mozambique north to Ethiopia may be
in the process of becoming a critical nodal point of the dynamic
Indian Ocean world.


I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique
through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize in the c21st August
19th 2013


Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st.  Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean becomes kind
of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite quickly. A
Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO
Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

A Photo Journey Eastern Seaboard Africa

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An al-Qa'ida-linked group fighting in Syria has released a video of the first American to carry out a suicide attack in the country's civil war, showing him smiling and saying he looked forward to going to heaven.
Law & Politics

Libya: western countries urge citizens to leave as civil war intensifies


 "British nationals in Libya should leave now by commercial means,"
the Foreign Office said. Britain's embassy would remain open but with
reduced staff.

France, Germany and the Netherlands issued similar warnings. "The
situation is extremely unpredictable and uncertain," the German
foreign ministry said. "German nationals are at increased risk of
kidnapping and attacks."

Earlier on Sunday, a vehicle carrying a British diplomat was ambushed
and sprayed with gunfire on the outskirts of Tripoli.

Fighters from the Misrata brigade fire at Tripoli airport on
Saturday amid turmoil in the Libyan capital. Photograph: AP


Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3429 The dollar traded at $1.3429 per euro at 6:35 a.m. in
London, little changed from July 25, when it reached $1.3422, the
strongest since Nov. 21
Dollar Index 81.04
Japan Yen 101.82
Swiss Franc 0.9050
Pound 1.6976
Aussie 0.9390
India Rupee 60.09 Three-month implied volatility, a measure of
expected moves in the rupee used to price options, fell 12 basis
points to 6.33 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's the
lowest since June 2008.
South Korea Won 1024.43
Brazil Real 2.2292
Egypt Pound 7.1509
South Africa Rand 10.4981

The dollar has risen 1.3 percent in the past month, the best performer
among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has gained 0.8 percent in the
same period, while the euro has lost 0.5 percent.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3429 [breaking down]


The ECB predicts the euro-area economy will grow 1 percent this year,
1.7 percent next year and 1.8 percent in 2016. It expects inflation to
rise gradually over the next two years to 1.4 percent in 2016.

@TheEIU  #PMI for #eurozone jumps to 54 in July. We believe the
bloc will grow by 1% overall this yr


Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.04 [nearing the top of the range]


 Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against
10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,014.01 from the end of
last week, when it rose 0.5 percent, the most since the period ending
March 21, and touched 1,014.39, the highest since June 18.

The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers' Index of U.S.
services from Markit Economics was at 59.8 in July, according to the
median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. That would be the
ninth-straight month above the 50 level that divides expansion from

Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll predict the U.S. Commerce
Department will say on July 30 that gross domestic product rose at a 3
percent annualized rate in the second quarter. The 2.9 percent decline
in the first quarter was the worst reading since the same three months
in 2009.

London's 10 Most Important Restaurants for Visitors


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 3 month Chart INO 1305.42


Gold for immediate delivery decreased as much as 0.4 percent to
$1,301.49 an ounce and was at $1,305.40 by 2:15 p.m. in Singapore,
according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed 1.1 percent
on July 25, the most in a week. Prices dropped for a second week

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 101.53 [a big Buy below 100.00]


WTI for September delivery slid as much as 59 cents to $101.50 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $101.75 at 4:05
p.m. Sydney time. The contract gained 2 cents to $102.09 on July 25.
The volume of all futures traded was about 16 percent below the
100-day average. Prices are down 3.4 percent in July, the most in
eight months.

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The dollar-denominated RTS Index has dropped 14 percent
Emerging Markets

"We are not investing in Russia because the tail risk is too high,"
Bauer said by phone on July 25. "You just don't know where the crisis
in Russia is going. Political risk is higher than in other emerging

Equities touched a four-year low in March after Putin moved to annex
the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. The benchmark Micex index trades at
5.1 times estimated earnings. Its 57 percent discount to the MSCI
Emerging Markets gauge is the biggest since the end of 2008.

The currency has depreciated 6.5 percent against the dollar this year,
the third-worst performance in emerging markets.


Russia is at a rock bottom price.

Frontier Markets

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The New Scramble for Africa Empire @AJElive @AJEmpire

Ebola Requires a Team Africa

There's a reason Ebola generates more terror than most viral
illnesses: Doctors have no cure, and as many as 9 in 10 of its victims
die. The only silver lining is that outbreaks have always been readily

Sadly, the new epidemic in Africa is another story. It has killed more
than 650 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and shows no sign
of abating. Last week, Sierra Leone's top Ebola doctor became infected
with the virus, and the first case was reported in Lagos, the
continent's biggest city.

Doctors Without Borders has declared this outbreak to be "out of
control." It should know. The group, working in conjunction with local
health authorities, is a principal provider of Ebola care.

This time, Ebola has gotten an edge that has enabled it to infect more
people than any preceding outbreak. The epidemic is centered at a
crossroads, an area where roads connecting Guinea, Liberia and Sierra
Leone come together. It's a place of high mobility, with people coming
in and out. People caring for infected relatives often travel
considerable distances to do so, then return home, often via minibus,
making transmission easier for the virus.

 Zimbabwe has cut its 2014 growth forecast to 3.1 percent from 6.1
percent, in line with projections from the IMF, the finance minister
and central bank governor said in a letter to the monetary fund seen
by Reuters.

"A baseline projection for real GDP growth for 2014 is 3.1 percent,"
Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa and central bank governor John
Mangudya said in the July 1 letter seen by Reuters on Friday.

"We've become a rudderless ship isolated from the world community,"
Tsvangirai said

Zimbabwe's economy faces implosion a year after disputed elections,
said Morgan Tsvangirai, the former prime minister and leader of the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

The country faces a serious liquidity crisis and a lack of investment,
Tsvangirai said at an event at Chatham House in London today.

Zimbabwe's economy is threatened with recession as factories shut,
consumer spending slumps and deflation takes hold. Retail sales fell
30 percent in February from the previous month, while 15 factories in
the metals and engineering industries closed in the period, according
to the government

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Fitch Upgrades Rwanda to 'B+'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Rwanda's Long-term foreign and local
currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'B+' from 'B'. The Outlooks
are Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS The upgrade of Rwanda's IDRs reflects the following
key rating drivers and their relative weights: High Economic growth
prospects are strong. GDP growth averaged 6.9% in 2009-2014 in a
stable macro environment, supported by structural reforms. In 2014,
Fitch expects real GDP growth to be 6.5% and to increase to 7%-8% in
the medium term, in line with performance during the past decade.
Growth will benefit from stronger regional integration within the East
African Community and rapid gains in agriculture, mines, tourism and
services. The business environment is the second best in Africa
according to the World Bank. Rwanda has a track record of prudent and
coherent fiscal and monetary policy management evident in moderate
inflation (average 4.6% in 2010-2013) and limited depreciation of the
exchange rate (-2% in 2012 against the US dollar and -5% in 2013) and
successfully steering the economy through the testing donor crisis in
2012/13 when aid disbursements were frozen.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.445% 2014

51,550.17 -71.35 -0.14%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.4981

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1511

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +28.79% 2014 [more than 60 month highs]

8,735.24 -9.15 -0.10%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +2.313% 2014

42,285.85 -256.25 -0.60%

Based on data collected on tax-free shopping in the UK, Nigerians are
among the top global spenders.

The region is experiencing the second-fastest economic growth, after
Asia-Pacific, and between 2008 and last year the luxury goods sector
grew 35%, the Global Powers of Luxury Goods report by professional
services firm Deloitte said on Wednesday.

Deloitte Africa leader for consumer business Rodger George said that
urbanisation had led to more people becoming aspirational and having
the money to back their aspirations.

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Police officers in Kano on July 24, 2014 stand near the mangled remains of a water dispenser in which an explosive was concealed (AFP Photo/Aminu Abubakar)

Lagos (AFP) - A female suicide bomber blew herself up outside a
university in Kano, northern Nigeria's largest city, after they
prevented her from carrying out an attack, injuring five officers,
police said.

"A female suicide bomber was isolated as she was walking towards the
gate of the university," police spokesman Frank Mba told AFP, adding
that she had hidden the bomb under her "long black hijab".

"Police on duty isolated her" because she was behaving strangely, Mba said.

They were about to ask a woman colleague to frisk the woman when she
detonated the bomb, killing herself and injuring the five police
officers, he said.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.993% 2014

2,295.57 -1.05 -0.05%

@JDMahama John Dramani Mahama retweeted you

Jul 22:  U.S. Embassy in Accra says it has apologized to Ghana's
president @JDMahama also apologizing to the Ghanaian people
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php ...

Red Friday - is gaining momentum after several thousand activists
marched through Accra on 24 July.

The date had an added significance as it marks the second anniversary
of the death in office of President John Evans Atta Mills. His
Vice-President, John Dramani Mahama, took over amid a wave of
sympathy, then went on to win the 2012 elections narrowly but his
National Democratic Congress (NDC) government has been dragged down
this year by a series of economic and political missteps.

Campaigners are throwing two statistics at the government that they
think sum up the problem: inflation was running at 15% in June and the
cedi has lost 30% of its value against the US dollar. The marchers in
Accra on 24 July turned those numbers into sarcastic slogans such as
'Somalia's shilling is doing better than Ghana's cedi', and 'Fatal
error: Mahama's government must reboot now!'

Congo president fires CEO of state miner Gecamines for "gross negligence"

Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila has fired the
chief executive of the country's state mining company Gecamines for
"gross negligence", according to a presidential decree read out on the
state television channel.

@SABMiller Africa Commentary

Strong group NPR performance with lager volumes returning to growth

In Africa, group NPR grew by 11%, driven by pricing and total beverage
volume growth of 5%. Lager volume growth of 3% was aided by market
share gains. Total soft drinks volume growth was 9%, with strong
performance in Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe.  In Tanzania,
group NPR grew by 11% and lager volumes recovered in June to end level
for the quarter after a slow start impacted by particularly heavy
rainfall. Group NPR in Mozambique grew by 15%, driven by the strong
growth of Castle Lite and the return to lager volume growth in the
quarter.  In Uganda, lager volumes returned to growth, helping to
drive group NPR growth of 7%.  Group NPR in Zambia grew by 4% although
lager volumes declined as a result of the excise-related pricing in
January.  In Zimbabwe, group NPR grew by 6% while lager volumes
declined, reflecting poor economic fundamentals. Strong group NPR
growth continued in Nigeria assisted by the recently commissioned
incremental capacity. In Botswana, group NPR grew by 8% reflecting
strong market execution in both lager and soft drinks. High single
digit group NPR growth at our associate, Castel, reflected lager
volume growth of 1% and soft drinks growth of 8%.

South Africa: Beverages

Strong group NPR growth buoyed by Easter trading

South Africa: Beverages group NPR grew by 12% reflecting price
increases, the continuing premiumisation of the portfolio, and total
beverage volume growth of 6%, against a backdrop of the challenging
economic environment.  Lager volume growth of 4% benefited from a
number of public holidays and favourable weather conditions throughout
the country over Easter. The premium lager portfolio performed well,
with both Castle Lite and Castle Milk Stout delivering double digit
volume growth.  Soft drinks volume grew 11% also benefiting from
public holidays at the start of the quarter, but driven further by
effective in trade execution, focus on the full brand portfolio, and
price point management of bulk PET packs in particular.  The rand has
continued to depreciate, and consequently reported group NPR grew by
only 1%.

@EconomistLake  Jul 24 foreign direct investment in East Africa

Rawbank, Democratic Republic of Congo's biggest lender, said it may
use the credit rating it received last week from Moody's Investor's
Service to sell an international bond.

"The conditions seem ripe for Rawbank to consider conducting its first
international bond issue, which would be a first for a corporation
based in the Democratic Republic of Congo," co-founder and Chief
Executive Officer Thierry Taeymans said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News
on July 25.

Rawbank was assigned a B3 local-currency deposit rating and a b3
standalone baseline credit assessment, Moody's said on July 24. That
was in line with the B3 sovereign rating given to Congo last
September, the ratings company said.

Rawbank, founded in 2002 by Taeymans and India's Rawji family, is the
first bank in Congo to receive a credit rating from Moody's. The
lender, with 36 branches in a nation the size of western Europe, will
tap increasing foreign investor interest, said Director of Corporate
Strategy Mustafa Rawji.

"With an increase of foreign direct investment into Congo, on the back
of strong economics growth, a rating provides us with a tool to access
longer-term funding in international capital markets," Rawji said in a
phone interview from the capital, Kinshasa.

The International Finance Corp. said in May that it would offer a $15
million loan to Rawbank to support lending to small and medium-sized
businesses and female entrepreneurs in Congo. The country's biggest
bank by deposits and assets last year became the first lender to make
Congolese francs available at automated teller machines and introduced
a debit card for clients doing business in China.

Congo is the world's sixth-largest producer of copper and the biggest
of cobalt. The central African nation has been ruled by President
Joseph Kabila since he took office 10 days after his father, Laurent
Kabila, died in January 2001. The country is scheduled to hold
presidential elections in 2016 and opposition parties have said Kabila
may change the constitution to secure a third term, which is currently

Congolese security forces last week repelled an attack by about 20
men, some armed with guns and others with machetes, at the main
military barracks in Kinshasa, and deployed tanks to secure the
installation, the government said. At least seven attackers and one
soldier died in the assault on Camp Tshatshi on July 22, while the
city's N'djili Airport was evacuated.

"The primary driver for Rawbank's ratings is Moody's assessment that
the bank's credit profile is closely linked to that of the sovereign
as a result of the bank's high credit concentration to government and
public-sector exposures," Moody's said. "Rawbank also displays
elevated credit risks stemming from the bank's high corporate loan
concentrations and the fragile domestic operating environment."

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The five-year average growth rate picked up from 3.8% in 2012 to 5% in 2014, above the 'B' median, but below regional peers, held back by domestic and weather-related shocks.
Kenyan Economy

itch Ratings has affirmed Kenya's Long-term foreign and local currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'B+' and 'BB-', respectively, with
Stable Outlooks.

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Kenyan police said on Friday they shot and killed two armed men suspected of planning an attack on a ferry in the port city of Mombasa
Kenyan Economy

Police believe the two killed on Friday might have been planning to
attack the busy Likoni ferry that plies the channel that lies between
Mombasa and the south coast.

The men were traveling in a public minibus heading towards the ferry
around the peak time of 6 p.m. (11 a.m. EDT) when they were approached
by police.

"When they sensed police had cornered them, one drew a grenade and
tried to detonate it, but he was shot and killed before he could do
so. The other had a pistol and was also killed," Mombasa County
Commissioner Nelson Marwa said.

"We think they may have been planning to attack passengers on the
ferry," he told journalists at the scene.

The Likoni ferry transports thousands of passengers daily from their
homes on the south coast to Mombasa for work and back. It is also the
main route for tourists heading to and from the airport to hotels on
the popular southern beaches.

Several Western nations have warned citizens about travel to some
areas of Kenya, including Mombasa. The attacks combined with
advisories have hammered the once-vibrant coastal tourist industry.

"Today there would have been a tragedy on this ferry had the police
not noticed these suspects and acted quickly. They have saved many
lives," Emmanuel Kimoto, a ferry guard, told Reuters.

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As I sat on the Likoni ferry, deep in the milieu of the overwhelming tide of humanity 17-FEB-2014
Kenyan Economy

I could not help recalling Antonio Gramsci;

''The old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum
there arises a great diversity of morbid symptoms. ''

I suppose post Westgate I notice how often in a day I am at a
standstill and that the density of humanity around me means I am in
fact helpless, whether its the Likoni ferry or crawling at 2mph around
the Likoni environs or stuck in a jam on Waiyaki Way.

These are asymmetric sweet spots as it were.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.694
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.808% 2014

151.42 +0.41 +0.27%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.9541% 2014

4,879.09 -4.66 -0.10%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

Serena group lashes out at Tourist Board

The Serena Hotel group has launched a scathing attack on the Kenya
Tourism Board which it accuses of burying its head in the sand over
the falling figures.

The accusation came over the major battering that tourism has taken
from raging insecurity at the Coast; beach tourism accounts for a
major revenue stream for the industry.

Operators say the industry suffered up to a 50 per cent decline over
the same period last year when the country held a General Election.

Serena's director of sales and marketing Rosemary Mugambi criticised
Kenya Tourism Board managing director Mureithi Ndegwa for his claim
that the industry had suffered only a four per cent drop.

In a statement on the hotel's website yesterday, Ms Mugambi says, "We
wonder if KTB and the Kenya tourism industry live in the same Kenya".

Last weekend, Mr Ndegwa told reporters that despite efforts by the
government to revive the tourism sector by offering holiday
incentives, the industry's performance has declined by four per cent
compared to the same period last year.

But Ms Mugambi countered that in 2012, the industry declined by 30 per
cent, and in 2013, the Coast sector dropped by between 30 per cent and
50 per cent.

"In the year 2013, the safari market to Tsavo, Amboseli, Mara, Mt
Kenya and Nakuru which form Coast's main attraction dropped by 20 per
cent," she said in her statement.

"Tragedy is when one does not accept that there is a problem, one
never seeks solutions. Businesses are suffering, our Kenyan brothers
and sisters are losing jobs, the manufacturing, agriculture, fishing,
curio suppliers, and boat operators are all being impacted negatively.
Kenya Revenue Authority Revenue from tourism industry must be way
down. It is just not business as usual, let's not kid ourselves", she

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Kenya's KCB to offer Islamic banking in all its branches
Kenyan Economy

Matatu tour of Nairobi DURATION: 05:55 Is it a bus or a disco on wheels?

The lowdown on travel by matatu in Nairobi

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share retreated 0.67% to close at 150.40.
The Nairobi NSE20 shaved off 15.22 points to close at 4863.87.
Equity Turnover was lackadaisical at 308.596m.
There were 17 Winners and 22 Losers today.
Centum +35.6% and BRITAM EA +53.46% set fresh record closing Highs.
The 10 Year Eurobond was trading at a record high Price of
106.250-107.000 and a record Low yield of  6.03/5.93 last time I
The Outstanding performance of the Eurobond will create an Elastic
Band Effect between Dollar Interest rates and local Kenya Shilling
interest rates. I expect Kenya Shilling interest rates to ratchet
This ratcheting lower will prove a Tonic for the Securities Exchange.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kenya Orchards rallied 8.47% to score a Fresh 2014 High of 10.25 and
traded 800 shares. Kenya Orchards which now carries a market
capitalisation of 132.225m  [$1.508m] has rallied an eye popping
241.66% this year on very small volume, however.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom reacted 1.639% lower to close at 12.00 and traded 2nd in
what was in fact a lackadaisical trading session at the Exchange.
Safaricom traded 4.541m shares worth 54.569. Safaricom is +10.599% in
2014 and sits 8.74% below an all time closing High of 13.15 set on 3
occasions in April this year. The Knee-jerk move lower was probably a
reaction to the news that the Competition Authority of Kenya had
instructed Safaricom to open up its M-Pesa mobile money platform.

Car and General was the biggest Winner at the Exchange and closed 9.6%
higher at 48.50 and traded 200 shares. Car and General has rallied
+61.66% this year and is a Piece of the Small Cap Out-performance seen
this year at the Securities Exchange.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange and firmed 0.9433% to close at 53.50 and was
trading at 54.00 +1.89% at the closing Bell. Kenya Commercial Bank
traded 1.118m shares worth 60.245 and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a
Factor of 17 versus 7 signalling an imminent test of a record closing
High of 54.00 set 17th through the 21st of this month. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +13.22% and reports Half Year Earnings this

Centum rallied 1.70% to close at a Fresh Record Closing High of 44.75
and traded 273,400 shares. Centum traded shares as high as 46.00
+4.55% [an all time high price print] at the Finale. Centum is +35.6%
this year that follows on a triple digit percentage gain in 2013.

BRITAM EA rallied 1.09% to score a Record Closing High of 23.25.
BRITAM EA traded 574,800 shares. BRITAM is +53.46% so far this year in
what has been a blistering rally.
Kenya Re retreated 4.244% to close at 18.05 on strong volume of 1.936m
shares worth 35.044m. Kenya Re remains +16.45% in 2014. Kenya Re
trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 4.207.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Mumias Sugar rebounded 6.52% off an all time closing Low to close at
2.45 and traded 742,300 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a factor of
2 versus 1 signalling the rebound might run further as soon as
tomorrow. At a Market Cap of 3.748b Kenya Shillings, I have to expect
that someone might launch a takeover Bid. The Current impasse is no
longer tenable.

BAT was low ticked 4.82% to close at 651.00 and traded 2,000 shares.

Eveready firmed 4.35% to close at 3.60 and traded 20,300 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2014

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