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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 07th of August 2014

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Interview with Howard French @Hofrench @Alykhansatchu Part 3 China Africa @Youtube

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

I got my first Email from my Daughter Hannah.

And I told her it was a momentous moment for me and that from now she
had to send me an email every single day.

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NATO fears ground invasion as Russia masses troops on Ukraine border
Law & Politics

 Russia has massed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's
border and could use the pretext of a humanitarian mission to invade,
NATO said on Wednesday, its starkest warning yet that Moscow could
soon mount a ground assault against its neighbor.

With fighting escalating and rebels losing ground in the weeks since a
Malaysian airliner was shot down over separatist-held territory,
Russia has announced military exercises this week in the border

"We're not going to guess what's on Russia's mind, but we can see what
Russia is doing on the ground - and that is of great concern. Russia
has amassed around 20,000 combat-ready troops on Ukraine's eastern
border," NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said in an emailed statement.

Moscow could use "the pretext of a humanitarian or peace-keeping
mission as an excuse to send troops into Eastern Ukraine", she said.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday the threat of a
direct intervention by Russia's military in Ukraine has risen over the
last couple of days.

As the military endgame in Ukraine approaches, President Vladimir
Putin must decide just how far he's prepared to go to defend the
pro-Russian insurgency.


With Ukrainian forces closing in on the remaining separatist
strongholds in the eastern part of the country, military analysts say
the revolt sparked by Putin's annexation of Crimea in March is
destined to fail without a sharp increase in aid from Russia. That
means Putin must now decide whether to double down and risk further
international isolation, which seems likely, according to Olga
Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist studying the country's elite at the
Russian Academy of Sciences.

"Putin has a very difficult choice in front of him," Kryshtanovskaya
said by phone from Moscow. "He has to protect his position in Russia.
He has to show that he's successfully pursuing his goals. He can't
afford to look like a loser in the eyes of the people."

Putin has so far been able to deny controlling the separatists by
pursuing a "hybrid war" that his predecessors have practiced on the
fringes of the czarist and Soviet empires for hundreds of years,
according to James Sherr, an associate fellow at London's Royal
Institute of International Affairs.

This model relies on "informal networks" of operatives and fighters
and aims to "erase the frontier between civil and interstate
conflict," Sherr said in a research note. "Its constituent parts are
not only serving officers of Spetsnaz units and the Federal Security
Service, but retired servicemen and deserters, the private security
forces of oligarchs, Cossacks, Chechen fighters, adventurers and

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Why Obama's Russia sanctions are doomed MK Bhadrakumar
Law & Politics

Obama doesn't get the point that the world is not interested in
isolating Russia or in wrecking the Russian economy at a juncture when
the world economy is in dire need of growth centres, especially
outside the Western world.

So, if Europe wants only Russian gas and will ban Russian oil, that's
fine with the fast-growing economies such as India or China or
Vietnam. If Europe doesn't want to purchase Russian weapons anymore,
that's also fine with India, Iraq, Egypt, Venezuela, Brazil, etc which
will still have arms deals with Russia. Most certainly, BRICS and
Shanghai Cooperation Organization are not going to wither away.

What Obama overlooks is that the instruments of the Cold War era have
outlived their utility. It's plain arrogance on his part to delude
himself that he's something of a magical Pied Piper and the rest of
the world simply follows him. Why should the world fight America's war
to salvage the pristine status of the US dollar so as to preserve
America's global hegemony -- despite being a power inexorably in

The BRICS bank, which is destined to rival the World Bank and the IMF
-- signifying "the end of western dominance of the global financial and
economic order," to quote, here,  a prominent Indian strategic pundit
who heads the National Security Council Advisory Board -- is an
immutable fact of life already. India, Brazil and China are not going
to be frightened by the West's restrictions on Russian banks.

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Obama's Africa Summit Ends With China Lead Over U.S. Challenged
Law & Politics

Obama's administration has sought to use the three-day U.S.-Africa
Leaders Summit that ends in Washington today as a way to spur
investment in a continent that holds some of the richest mineral
deposits, fastest-growing economies and a burgeoning middle class.
While China has stolen a march on the U.S., with its trade with Africa
surpassing $200 billion last year, more than double that of the U.S.,
contrasting investment styles mean American businesses have the
potential to profit.

"Does America want to invest in infrastructure in roads? Probably
not," Bob Collymore, chief executive officer of Safaricom Ltd., East
Africa's largest mobile-phone operator, said in an interview in
Washington yesterday. "I don't think there's a question of competing."

"This should have started much earlier," Rwandan President Paul Kagame
said in an interview in Washington yesterday. "If things are done
right, the relationship, the partnership between the United States and
Africa, has the potential to bypass that relationship between Africa
and Europe. Also the relationship between Africa and China."

There is a "complementary role," Collymore said. "We see American
private investors coming into the country, and we don't see Chinese
private investors coming into the country."

"American companies are really losing out on opportunities to grow and
to create jobs, both here and in Africa" as China is "delving into
Africa head first," former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said on
Aug. 4.

China's approach "is a big bang, and I don't believe that Africa will
transform because of a big bang," Joshua Oigara, chief executive
officer of Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd., said in an interview in
Washington yesterday. "It will transform because of simultaneous, many
businesses, partnerships across different sectors."

"A new Africa is emerging - some of the world's fastest-growing
economies and a growing middle class, the youngest and fastest growing
population on Earth," Mr Obama said.


"Africa will help shape the world like never before," he said, adding:
"Africa's progress is being led by Africans".

U.S. President Barack Obama (C) delivers opening remarks to more
than 50 fifty leaders gathered for the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit
Washington August 6, 2014.


Barack Obama arrives at a dinner for the US-Africa leaders summit
at the White House. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images


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.@JohnKerry Zeinab Badawi BBC Hard Talk Interview Transcript
Law & Politics

QUESTION: You do invest in Africa. Let me just tell you what Aly-Khan
Satchu, chief executive of Rich Management in Nairobi, that's been
approved by the Nairobi securities exchange as an advisory service -
he says, "Look at Kenya. America is already heavily invested. We
issued a euro bond in Kenya where we borrowed $2 billion. Sixty-six
percent of that was bought by North America." And just in that, you
see that North America is putting the capital down, as you say, that
Africa is then using to build infrastructure. The irony is that most
of this stuff is being built by Chinese contractors and not the
Americans. You're putting the investment in, but somebody else perhaps
is benefited?

SECRETARY KERRY: Well, that's life. It also shows that we're not in it
just to have our own contractors come over. We are doing this because
we think it's the right thing for Africa. And indeed, other countries
and other companies will benefit. More power to them. Ultimately, this
is good for Africa and it's good for these countries to have the
stability and the capacity as they build. We will all benefit that -
from that on a global basis. There will be less Boko Harams, less
Al-Shabaabs. There will be less cause for people to have their minds
filled with extremist ideology, rather than to engage in the broader
benefits of society. And we're interested in that, and I'm glad we are
as a country.

QUESTION: Okay. Just looking at this infrastructure point. When you
say you're not just in it for construction projects and so on, and the
Chinese, of course, have been doing a great deal of that, because now,
of course, since 2009 they have overtaken the United States as the
biggest single country to trade in total with Africa. It's now $200
billion in total trade.

SECRETARY KERRY: Trade, but not invest.

QUESTION: Yes, not investment.

SECRETARY KERRY: We are the biggest investor.

QUESTION: I accept that, but in terms of trade, China's is way out there.

SECRETARY KERRY: What does that tell you? That tells you something, doesn't it?

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U.S. to spend up to $550 mln on African rapid response forces
Law & Politics

"The United States doesn't have a desire to expand and create a big
footprint inside of Africa," Obama said at a news conference at the
conclusion of the summit.

"What we want to make sure we can do is partner with the African Union
... with individual countries, to build up their capacity," he said.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3379
Dollar Index 81.50
Japan Yen 102.28
Swiss Franc 0.9081
Pound 1.6841
Aussie 0.9271
India Rupee 61.42
South Korea Won 1037.20
Brazil Real 2.2737
Egypt Pound 7.1504
South Africa Rand 10.7594

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.50 [Feels like it is going to push on]


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3379


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Nestle SA (NESN), the world's largest food company, plans to spend 8 billion Swiss francs ($8.8 billion) in its first share buyback in three years after reporting first-half revenue growth that exceeded analysts' estimates.
International Trade

Revenue gained 4.7 percent excluding acquisitions, divestments and
currency shifts, the Vevey, Switzerland-based maker of KitKat bars and
Nespresso coffee said today in a statement. That compares with the 4.5
percent median of 14 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.
Nestle said it plans to repurchase the stock starting this year and
into 2015. The shares rose as much as 3.1 percent.

"We've had a few disappointments in the food industry lately, but
Nestle has managed to report numbers that are slightly better than
expected, doing better than Danone and Unilever,"

Organic sales growth in the Asia, Oceania and Africa zone was 4.7
percent, compared with analysts' estimates for a 5.7 percent gain.

Nespresso Dubai Mall @Nestle 

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"We might go for double that or more, up to $1 billion," @PaulKagame said

Rwanda plans to sell its second international bond of as much as $1
billion next year to fund the construction of an airport and power
plants, seeking to tap burgeoning investor demand, President Paul
Kagame said.

The East African nation wants to build on the success of the $400
million bond issued in April 2013 that was more than eight times
oversubscribed, Kagame said in an interview at the U.S.-Africa Leaders
Summit in Washington yesterday. At that foreign-debt sale, the
government declined investors' suggestions to increase the size of the
offer, he said.

"We might go for double that or more, up to $1 billion," Kagame said.

Yields on Rwanda's Eurobond, due May 2023, have dropped 142 basis
points, or about 1.4 percentage point, this year to 6.06 percent as of
9 a.m. in London. Falling borrowing costs have prompted African
nations from Kenya to Senegal to tap global bond markets, with
sub-Saharan African nations selling $6.39 billion in debt this year,
compared with $9.7 billion in all of 2013, according to Standard Bank
Group Ltd., the continent's biggest lender.

Kagame said investor appetite for Rwandan bonds was a vindication of
his policies and show investors are undeterred by criticism from
human-rights advocates that the government is stifling political
freedoms. Groups including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
International have accused Kagame's administration of carrying out
abuses such as illegal detentions and cracking down on dissent. The
government has denied the claims.

"The markets are never wrong," Kagame said. "Look at the situation in
Rwanda, where we have been 20 years ago and where we are now. It's
short of miraculous. It can't be just because we are violating human
rights. It's because actually we value and respect human rights."

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.452% 2014

51,091.80 -257.31 -0.50%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.7596


MTN Group Ltd. first-half profit increased and data revenue soared
Sales grew 11 percent to 72.8 billion rand ($6.8 billion), with data
revenue up 39 percent


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1503


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +33.39% 2014 Africa's best in 2014


9,047.61 +37.30 +0.41%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +2.443% 2014


42,339.86 +46.91 +0.11%

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Boko Haram is accused of unleashing a new weapon of war - the female suicide bomber @BBCAfrica

Four of them - all teenage girls - carried out attacks in the biggest
northern city, Kano, last week, leading to social media sites going
viral with speculation - dismissed as unfounded by the government -
that Boko Haram had turned some of the more than 200 schoolgirls
abducted in April into human bombs.

Nigeria's first female bomber - a middle-aged woman - struck in June:
Riding a motorcycle, she went to a military barracks in the
north-eastern city of Gombe, where she detonated her explosives while
being searched at a checkpoint, killing one soldier.

"To use female suicide bombers is the most dramatic strategy that an
organisation can use. It becomes easier to penetrate targets because
we are less suspicious about women," Martin Ewi, a researcher with
South Africa's Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told the BBC.

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A petrol station was targeted in Kano city by a woman last week

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.2004% 2014


2,278.98 -6.53 -0.29%

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Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama said his government is open to receiving loans from the International Monetary Fund as it turns to the lender for help in rescuing a currency in crisis.

"We are not looking for a bailout," Mahama, 55, said in an interview
with Bloomberg TV Africa in Washington, where he attended the
three-day U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. "It is more along a discussion
and a program that we are looking at. If it comes with money, that is

The Coca-Cola Company and its African bottling partners today
announced a new investment of US$5 billion during the U.S.-Africa
Leaders Summit here. The investment, to be made over the next six
years, increases its total announced investment in Africa to $17
billion from 2010 to 2020.


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In Africa, haircare becomes a multi-billion dollar industry Reuters

(Reuters) - With all the skill of a master weaver at a loom, Esther
Ogble stands under a parasol in the sprawling Wuse market in Nigeria's
capital and spins synthetic fibre into women's hair.

Nearby, three customers - one in a hijab - wait for a turn to spend
several hours and $40 (£23.7) to have their hair done, a hefty sum in
a country where many live on less than $2 a day.

While still largely based in the informal economy, the African
haircare business has become a multi-billion dollar industry that
stretches to China and India and has drawn global giants such as
L'Oreal (OREP.PA) and Unilever (UNc.AS) (ULVR.L).

Hairdressers such as Ogble are a fixture of markets and taxi ranks
across Africa, reflecting both the continent's rising incomes and
demand from hair-conscious women.

"I need to braid my hair so that I will look beautiful," said
25-year-old Blessing James, wincing as Ogble combed and tugged at the
back of her head before weaving in a plait that fell well past the

While reliable Africa-wide figures are hard to come by, market
research firm Euromonitor International estimates $1.1 billion of
shampoos, relaxers and hair lotions were sold in South Africa, Nigeria
and Cameroon alone last year.

It sees the liquid haircare market growing by about 5 percent from
2013 to 2018 in Nigeria and Cameroon, with a slight decline for the
more mature South African market.

This does not include sales from more than 40 other sub-Saharan
countries, or the huge "dry hair" market of weaves, extensions and
wigs crafted from everything from synthetic fibre to human or yak

Some estimates put Africa's dry hair industry at as much as $6 billion
a year; Nigerian singer Muma Gee recently boasted that she spends
500,000 naira (£1,842) on a single hair piece made of 11 sets of human

The French cosmetics giant this year opened what it billed as South
Africa's first multi-ethnic styling school, training students of all
races on all kinds of hair, something that would have been unthinkable
before the end of apartheid in 1994.

While the South African hair market remains divided, salons are
looking to boost revenues by drawing in customers across ethnic
groups, meaning hairdressers who once catered only for whites will
need stylists who can also work on African hair.

L'Oreal is looking to build on its "Dark and Lovely" line of relaxers
and other products with more research into African hair and skin and
has factories in South Africa and Kenya producing almost half the
products it distributes on the continent.

Nor is it alone. Anglo-Dutch group Unilever has a salon in downtown
Johannesburg promoting its "Motions" line of black haircare products,
and niche operators are springing up in the booming dry hair market.

"We supply anything to do with dry hair, across the board," said Kabir
Mohamed, managing director of South Africa's Buhle Braids, rattling
off a product line of braids, weaves and extensions that use tape,
rings or keratin bonds.

Today there are more than 100 brands of hair in South Africa, making
the market worth about $600 million, he said, roughly four times more
than in 2005.

Much of the hair sold is the cheaper synthetic type and comes from
Asia. Pricier natural hair is prized because it lasts longer, retains
moisture and can be dyed.

India's Godrej Consumer Products (GOCP.NS) acquired South African firm
Kinky in 2008 and sells synthetic and natural hair, including
extensions, braids and wigs.

Buhle Braids, like its rivals, sources much of its natural hair from
India, which has a culture of hair collection, particularly from Hindu
temples or village "hair collectors".

The hair is then sent to China where it is processed into extensions
and shipped to Africa. Hair from yaks, to which some people are
allergic, is now used less.

In one clue to the potential for Africa, market research firm Mintel
put the size of the black haircare market in the United States at $684
million in 2013, estimating that it could be closer to $500 billion if
weaves, extensions and sales from independent beauty stores or
distributors are included.

What is certain is that Africa's demand for hair products,
particularly those made from human hair, is only growing.

"It hurts, but you have to endure if you want to look nice," said
Josephine Ezeh, who sat in Wuse market cradling a baby as a
hairdresser tugged at her head. "Hair is very, very important."

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With respect to ourselves, I sincerely wish we reset our relations. 04-AUG-2014 Africa goes to visit @barackobama in Washington
Kenyan Economy

Photographs from the White House yesterday showing President Kenyatta
being graciously received by President Obama and Michelle Obama and is
an important Signal in the noise and signals a resetting of relations

Kenya's bond with US is unbreakable, Uhuru Kenyatta tells Americans


"I want to reassure you concerning a rumour going round the
international public sphere that Kenya and my government have turned
away from the West in favour of the East," he said.

President Kenyatta said Kenya's trade deals with countries from the
East has not changed in any way the historic bonds it has with the US
and other Western nations.

He said Kenya's economy was getting more sophisticated and such
maturity was naturally driving the country to extend itself globally,
including exploring opportunities in the East to complement its
existing partnerships.

He emphasised that Kenya's bonds with the US are born of shared values
and would not be broken easily.

"These values impelled our independence movements to partner with the
United States to secure the ideal of freedom from colonialism, racism,
exploitation and exclusion, and to pursue the principles of democracy,
human rights and free enterprise," he said.

He said there should be no anxiety about Kenya's relationship with the
US, which he described as eternal.

"Every time Kenya and the US have collaborated on any project, the
world has witnessed spectacular success," he said.

He said one of the collaborations that changed American and world
history was the one facilitated by President John F. Kennedy and Tom
Mboya in which Kenyan students were airlifted to study in the US
during the 1960s.

President Barack Obama's father was one of the Kenyan students who
went to study in the US.

The President told US investors to view Kenya as the destination of
choice for their business.

He said his government was aware of the keen interest and confidence
American investors have in Kenya and its future outlook.

"Recently, when we floated our inaugural Euro bond, there was 500 per
cent oversubscription, 60 per cent by American investors," he said.

President Kenyatta said the government is now dedicated to making the
country a favourable investment and trading destination through proper

He called on American firms to take advantage of Kenya's strategic
location and its position as the economic powerhouse of the Eastern
and Central Africa region.

Mr Kenyatta added that the East African Community economic bloc makes
Kenya and the other member countries a prime location for investors.

"Already, we are a common market, and are putting finishing touches on
a single customs union while there is broad agreement and steady
progress towards a political federation," he said.

The President said the mining and petroleum industry in Kenya provide
massive investment opportunities that call for more partnerships.

President Kenyatta said Kenya was dealing with security threats that
have recently posed a challenge to the country and the region's
business environment.

He said Government has increased investment and expenditure in the
security sector by five times.

"Kenya is involved in anti-terrorism cooperation with many regional
and international partners. Among our stalwart allies in these efforts
is the United States," he said.

The President spoke at a business forum organised by the Bloomberg
Foundation, which also included a networking breakfast session.

"Safaricom expects its joint acquisition of rival yuMobile to be
completed within months at a cost of about $120 million," Bloomberg
News reported Wednesday quoting Mr Collymore who is in Washington DC
attending the US-Africa Summit.


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +14.657% 2014 Record High


156.68 1.29 0.83%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.9488% 2014 [2nd close above 5,000 and that
is since 29th January 2014]


5,022.36 +19.00 +0.38%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share had rallied +14.657% in 2014 and through this
morning finally met a round of profit taking and throttled back 0.542%
to close at 155.83.
The Nairobi NSE20 whilst drifting 10.86 points lower to close at
5011.51 and keeping its nose in front of the 5,000 Level for the 3rd
consecutive session and the previous time it was above 5,000 was 29th
January this year.
Equity Turnover surged to 1.496b with some high volume sell side Action.
Evidently Locals were on the Sell Side with Foreigners emerging as the
Buy Side which has been a Trend since this bull market began in 2012.
The market recorded 15 gainers against 22 losers
BAT set a record high and is +16.5% in 2014 without accounting for dividends.
BRITAM EA set a Fresh Record high and is +63.36% in 2014.
Heavy and [probably telegraphed and a little botched selling] by a
Local institution or Institutions contaminated the Big Cap stocks
EABL reports FY Earnings this evening.
ScanGroup reports tomorrrow.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed 0.39% easier at 12.90 and traded 16.411m shares worth
211.689m. Safaricom was overdue a Pause to catch its breath as it has
rebounded violently and 8.36% since the 22nd of July. Safaricom's Bob
Collymore was reported as saying "Safaricom expects its joint
acquisition of rival yuMobile to be completed within months at a cost
of about $120 million," Bloomberg
News. Safaricom is set to threaten its all time high of 13.15 which is
less than 2% away from todays closing Price.

Bharat Thakrar's [and Now Sir Martin Sorrell's] ScanGroup traded real
light and just 2,900 shares all at 47.00 +0.53% ahead of its Earnings
Release tomorrow.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank traded its 2nd highest volume session of 2014
and eased 5.17% to close at 55.00 and traded 12.935m shares worth
717.51m. Kenya Commercial Bank traded a 54.50-57.50 range and closed
out the session trading at 55.00. Kenya Commercial Bank rallied
+23.809% and set a winning sequence closing Highs culminating on
Monday 4th August when it closed at 58.50. Kenya Commercial Bank has
eased back 5.986% since monday in a long overdue bout of profit
taking. Kenya Commercial Bank will find good sized buy side support
just below here. KCB reported a 16% First Half Profit Before Tax
Acceleration. Locals sold and Foreigner Investors represented 95.6% of
the Buy Side Action.

CIC Insurance was the biggest Winner at the Securities Exchange and
rallied 6.47% to close at 9.05 and traded 634,600 shares. CIC
Insurance is +52.1% in 2014.
BRITAM EA rallied +2.06% to close at a Fresh Record High of 24.75 and
traded 975,000 shares. BRITAM EA is +63.36% in 2014 and on a Trailing
PE of 17.679, it looks rich.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL which will report Full Year Earnings as early as this afternoon
via a Press Conference at their Ruaraka HQ, throttled back 1.277% off
a 2014 closing high reached yesterday to close at 309.00 and traded
817,500 shares worth 269.804m. EABL was soft into the finish line and
was trading at session lows of 302.00 -3.51% at the closing Bell. Ivan
Menezes gave us some insight into these Full Year Earnings when Diageo
released their Earnings earlier in the week;

"Senator's performance in Kenya was impacted by the excise duty levied
in October. I don't expect any material improvement here until we lap
the duty increase this October and the brand will have a new base"
said Mr Menezes.

"In East Africa we're using Jebel Gold to reach value-conscious
consumers. Accelerating the launch of the brand helped offset some of
the weakness on Senator Keg as we rolled it out using our bespoke
Senator route to consumers in Kenya," said Mr Menezes.

Foreigners constituted 99.9% of the Buy Side Action in the stock today.

BAT rallied 2.99% to post an all time Closing High of 699.00 on strong
volume action of 122,600 shares worth 85.762m. BAT is the premier
dividend stock at the Securities Exchange and will float higher in an
easing rates environment as its rock solid dividend credentials shine
in the contrast. BAT is +16.5% in 2014 excluding dividends.

Mumias Sugar turned 2.08% higher to close at 2.45 and traded 869,200
shares. At the current Trajectory, Mumias has to be a candidate for a

Sameer fell by the daily limit of 10% to close at 6.30 on heavy
selling of 570,300 shares. Sameer has slumped 25% since issuing a
Profits Warning.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2014

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