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Friday 08th of August 2014
 
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The @SerenaHotels The Star
Africa


MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the
managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The
Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds
me of happy; joyful; carefree: halcyon days of youth.

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"Earlier this week, one Iraqi in the area cried to the world, 'There is no one coming to help'," said @BarackObama
Law & Politics


 "Well, today America is coming to help."

Obama said in an address that he authorized "targeted" strikes to
protect the besieged Yazidi minority and U.S. personnel in Iraq.

NATO's calls for Russia to "step back from the brink" of war in
Ukraine were still ringing in ears of volatile markets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/08/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0G80JM20140808

@Omar_Gaza  Aug 6 #Gaza sunset yesterday. I couldnt resist. <3

pic.twitter.com/wIuKAMkqHk

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Obama Is No Foreign Policy Wimp Noah Smith
Law & Politics


I find it hard to avoid the conclusion that the U.S. is doing very
well at the international Great Game under President Barack Obama.

Now, you may think U.S. hegemony is a good thing or a bad thing
(personally I prefer it to the alternatives currently on offer). And
you may disapprove of Obama’s methods, which include the scary advent
of drone warfare. But in terms of pure realpolitik, Obama seems to be
very far from the weak, ineffective statesman that the Republicans try
to portray him as.

Let’s try to take an unbiased look at the scoreboard. The U.S. has one
military enemy (international jihadists) and three geopolitical rivals
-- China, Russia, and Iran. All have suffered setbacks during the
Obama years.

Global Sunni Islamist jihadism is on the back foot. Osama bin Laden
sleeps with the fishes. Most of al-Qaeda’s leaders have been killed or
captured -- the single remaining villain of 9/11 is Ayman al-Zawahiri,
a cantankerous old man who has notably done nothing to boost the dying
terrorist organization. The new kids on the jihadist block are the
Islamic State (or ISIS), which is locked in a death struggle with one
of our rivals, Iran.

That’s worth repeating. If Obama had intervened in Syria, as many
wanted him to, it would be American bodies interposing themselves
between the bullets of the Sunni and Shiite combatants -- much as it
was in the later days of the war in Iraq, only worse. Instead, our
main enemy and one of our rivals are at each other’s throats. The
people of the Middle East are suffering -- and that’s bad -- but U.S.
power and prestige are enjoying a much-needed respite.

As for Russia, it took Crimea, that’s true. But in the process it
transformed Ukraine from a client state to an enemy, whose trade links
with the European Union will probably draw it further and further from
Russia’s orbit. Russia then tried to foment a rebellion in Ukraine,
perhaps thinking it might split off the Russian-speaking eastern
areas, but the rebels utterly failed to gain popular support. Now
Vladimir Putin’s hired goons can barely hold onto two cities in a tiny
and shrinking region on the Russian border. Meanwhile, Russia’s
economy, already suffering from stagnant oil prices, is taking a
beating from sanctions. It seems hard to believe that a U.S. military
intervention could have produced a better outcome.

Finally, China, by far the most powerful rival, has experienced some
minor setbacks. With its enormous size and hypercharged growth, China
looked in the 2000s as if it was poised to dominate Asia. Maybe it
still will, but its charm offensive has evaporated as it has engaged
aggressively in territorial disputes with almost every country in its
vicinity. Myanmar, one of its few regional allies, has defected from
China’s camp, opening up to the West and taking steps toward
democracy.

Speaking of democracy, the idea that it’s the U.S.’s responsibility to
promote our system of government may have gone out of fashion, but we
still generally think it’s beneficial when democracy spreads. On this
front, things are looking good, with Tunisia going democratic,
Indonesia showing that Muslim-majority countries have no problem with
durable democracy and Myanmar reforming substantially. A couple of
countries, such as Thailand and Turkey, have backslid, but not as a
result of the influence of the U.S.’s rivals.

Now note that during all this, the U.S.’s prestige in the world has
increased, while the prestige of Russia and Iran have fallen (China’s
has remained unchanged)

What about the idea that our president is a wimp, not sufficiently
feared by our enemies and rivals? For a supposed milquetoast, Obama
sure managed to cow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who agreed to
dispose of his entire arsenal of chemical weapons in the middle of a
civil war. That is a pretty unprecedented feat of intimidation.

The idea that Democrats are wimps is a standard old Republican saw.
They’ve used it constantly since World War II, usually flying in the
face of facts to the contrary. Former Secretary of State Dean Acheson,
for example, who in the 1950s implemented the policy of containment
that ultimately won the Cold War, was ridiculed by Richard Nixon for
his "College of Cowardly Communist Containment.” Don’t believe this
line -- it’s pure partisan noise.

It seems to me that the presidents who have done the most to advance
U.S. power and prestige aren't the ones who charge forward firing
their guns randomly -- as George W. Bush did -- but those who keep
their powder dry and wait until they see the whites of the enemy’s
eyes. Richard Nixon withdrew from Vietnam and allied with China
against the Soviet Union; Ronald Reagan built up U.S. strength and
avoided major military adventures even as he signed arms control
treaties with the Soviets. In both cases, the U.S. came out on top of
our rival.

Today, the growth of China and the U.S. recession have put America in
a much trickier situation. But Obama’s quiet, inexorable strategy --
whatever you think of his methods -- are defying the odds and paying
dividends for American hegemony.

Conclusions


This is the Point I have been making for a while. President
@BarackObama is very hard-edged and in my opinion the Idea that he is
somehow supine a ridiculous Canard.

read more


Canard
Law & Politics


canard (plural canards)

A false or misleading report or story, especially if deliberately so.
[quotations ▲]
2005, The New Yorker, 29 August, page 78.
It’s a cinch, now that Spurling has cleared away a century’s worth of
misapprehensions and canards.

Etymology[edit]
From Middle French canard (“duck, male duck”), from cane (“duck,
female duck”, literally “floater, little boat”), from Old French cane
(“boat, ship", also "waterbird”), from Middle Low German kane
(“boat”), from Proto-Germanic *kanô (“boat, vessel”), from
Proto-Indo-European *gan-, *gandʰ- (“vessel, tub”). Cognate with
Norwegian kane (“swan-shaped vessel”), Dutch kaan (“boat”), German
Kahn (“boat”), Old Norse kæna (“little boat”), and possibly Old Norse
knǫrr (“ship”) (whence also Late Latin canardus (“ship”), from
Germanic; and Old English cnearr (“merchant ship”)). Related to French
canot (“little boat”). Specifically, the term Canard refers to a
tactic used by a parent duck to deceptively draw a predator away from
its offspring or nest by quacking and feigning a broken wing. In other
words the "Canard" or "Duck" is lying.

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PRESIDENT Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia bared its fangs last week.02-DEC-2013
Law & Politics


China had declared an Air Defense Identification Zone in an area that
included those rocky Islands which are called the Senkakus by the
Japanese and Diaoyu by the Chinese. The US responded to the
declaration of the ADIZ by flying 2 B-52s directly into it and that
message is kind of incontestable.

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The President has been a sophisticated and aggressive exponent of a new kind of c21st warcraft. April 2014
Law & Politics


The answer to the Question you posed is yes President @BarackObama
drew a red line and in a manner as incontestable as flying two B-52s
directly into the ADIZ at the end of last year. The comparison between
the Syrian red line and the Senkakus is kind of spurious. Erdogan's
fingerprints were all over the Trigger Event in Syria and to advocate
intervening on such a compromised pretext was a cockamamie idea. I am
surprised that the US is pivoting in two directions simultaneously ie
both to Ukraine/Russia and to Asia/China. Nevertheless one senses that
the US Security complex senses it has a decisive advantage now and
that this is set to erode. The Nature of Advantages is you need to
press them. The President has been a sophisticated and aggressive
exponent of a new kind of c21st warcraft. The weak @Barackobama Canard
is cute but its a nonsense.

Airforce 1

http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/files/2009/03/ba.jpg

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3388
Dollar Index 81.40
Japan Yen 101.93
Swiss Franc 0.9066
Pound 1.6800
Aussie 0.9274
India Rupee 61.20
South Korea Won 1036.64
Brazil Real 2.2901
Egypt Pound 7.1512
South Africa Rand 10.7104

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.40

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3388

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1318.35 [lifted higher by Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 97.71

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.U14.E&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Zombies Free to Stalk Egypt Uncensored as Sisi Critics Silenced @BloombergNews
Africa


When Hany Hamdy decided to make a movie on Egypt’s political strife,
he turned to the living dead for inspiration.

“Zombies suck your blood to live. It’s the same thing as the Muslim
Brotherhood sucking the blood of Egyptians for its own interests,” the
32-year-old director of El-Dassas said, giving his creations vampire
tendencies to complete the analogy. “They’re ugly, pathetic haters.”

Hamdy’s vilification of an Islamist movement ejected from power by the
military last year and pursued by security forces and the courts over
the past 12 months hasn’t drawn the attention of Egypt’s authorities.
Those who questioned the crackdown, and the election as president of
the army chief who led it, haven’t been so lucky, with journalists
jailed, columnists forced into silence and television shows scrapped.

The pursuit of critics under Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi amounts to an
unprecedented assault on liberties, said Emad Mubarak, head of the
Cairo-based Association for Freedom of Expression and Thought. While
many Egyptians back El-Sisi -- he won the presidency with 97 percent
of votes albeit in an extended poll in which less than half the
electorate participated -- he’s overseen a return to the systematic
repression that exploded into street rage three years ago, rights
activists and freedom monitors say.

In the last year, hundreds of Brotherhood supporters have been killed
by security forces and many more put on trial. Human Rights Watch
recorded the killing at least 1,400 protesters in the 12 months
following Mursi’s removal.

Egyptians who hold the Brotherhood responsible for recent bombings
“think that the crackdown is necessary and support El-Sisi’s line that
security and stability must come first,” said Anthony Skinner,
director for Middle East and North Africa at the U.K.-based risk
analysis company Maplecroft.

Singer Mohamed Mohsen, who rose to fame during the 2011 uprising after
performing in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and is known for his political
song, is one of those out of favor. Mohsen was escorted off stage in
March shortly before he was to perform at an arts festival attended by
El-Sisi.

“We made this revolution just to be able to speak up, sing and raise
our free voices,” Mohsen said. “There’s no power whatsoever able to
take back this space and if someone thinks he can, he’s definitely
going to lose the battle.”

read more




Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa


Malawian President Mutharika Hopes for IMF Agreement by November

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-07/malawian-president-mutharika-hopes-for-imf-agreement-by-november.html

Malawi’s President Peter Mutharika said he hopes the country will
reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund by November as
the government struggles to pay its bills after donors cut aid.

Mutharika, who was elected in May, said Malawi may seek a loan from
the Washington-based lender at a later stage as he doesn’t expect
donors who have in the past financed 40 percent of the country’s
budget to resume aid this year.

“We’ll obviously need the IMF,” he said in an interview in Washington
at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit yesterday.

Mutharika, 74, took over an economy struggling to recover from a
suspension in donor aid in 2013 because of corruption concerns. He has
pledged to prosecute anyone guilty of graft and make efforts to recoup
money stolen during the “Cashgate” scandal, in which 13.5 billion
Malawi kwacha ($34 million) disappeared from government coffers
between April and the end of September 2013.

Still, he says it isn’t clear when aid will resume.

“The conditions have never been clear,” he said. “They say that when
they are satisfied that there is prudent financial management they’ll
resume the aid, so that’s very broad. I am sure they will do it
fairly.”

Malawi has cut expenditure and aims to boost tax collection, he said.
At the same time, the government is committed to cement, seed and
fertilizer subsidies, which the president promised in the election
campaign.

“It’s socially responsible to assist people who cannot afford things,”
he said. “We are committed to subsidies.”

Mutharika was in Washington along with more than 40 African heads of
state to attend the three-day U.S.-Africa summit. A business forum on
Aug. 5 was hosted by Bloomberg Philanthropies and the U.S. Commerce
Department. Bloomberg Philanthropies is led by Michael Bloomberg, the
founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg
News.

Malawi’s currency has declined 16 percent against the dollar since the
end of 2012 and the central bank last month cut the key interest rate
by 2.5 percentage points to 22.5 percent.

“We’ll try to protect the kwacha, I guess we have no choice,” he said.
An intervention would depend on “conditions,” he said.

The government hopes the central bank will cut the rate further within
six months, said Mutharika, who is the brother of President Bingu wa
Mutharika, who died while in office in 2012.

The economy has improved and is currently growing at a rate of 4
percent to 5 percent this year, he said.

“We hope that in the end it’ll be fine,” he said. “We’ve turned around
the corner, probably not completely.”

Malawi’s President Peter Mutharika.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-07/malawian-president-mutharika-hopes-for-imf-agreement-by-november.html

@KPMGAfrica Many gaps exist in Africa today, but imagine the
opportunities therein- Paul Kagame of Rwanda #USAfricaSummit

pic.twitter.com/ednBg9oFyl

Mugabe Paying Wages Using Debt as Zimbabwe Economy Slows

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-07/mugabe-paying-wages-with-debt-as-economy-sputters-africa-credit.html

Zimbabwe is selling bills and bonds to pay a ballooning wage bill as
the economic growth outlook dims and deflation takes hold, a year
after President Robert Mugabe extended more than three decades in
office.

The southern African nation of 13 million people raised $2 million in
July through private placements of six-month Treasury bills carrying a
rate of 9.5 percent, according to an official with knowledge of the
matter. Commercial banks held $261.9 million of bills as of June, more
than double the $118 million in December and $75.5 million a year
earlier, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s monthly review
for June.

The southern African nation of 13 million people raised $2 million in
July through private placements of six-month Treasury bills carrying a
rate of 9.5 percent, according to an official with knowledge of the
matter. Commercial banks held $261.9 million of bills as of June, more
than double the $118 million in December and $75.5 million a year
earlier, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s monthly review
for June.

The recovery from a decade-long recession is wavering as factories
shut and households come under pressure because of delayed salary
payments by the government and job cuts by private companies. Growth,
which averaged 10 percent between 2009 and 2012, is forecast at 3.1
percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Consumer prices fell for five straight months through June, government
data show.

“Zimbabwe’s push to sell local debt stems from the government’s
inability to meet growing wage demands,” Charles Laurie, head of
Africa at Bath, U.K.-based risk advisory Maplecroft, said in an
e-mailed response to questions on Aug. 1. “Increasing issuance of
Treasury bills and bonds to pay salaries signals a weakening fiscal
condition.”

The IMF projects Zimbabwe will pay $2.22 billion for wages and
salaries this year, out of total expenditure and net lending of $4.3
billion. Spending on salaries is forecast to increase each year until
at least 2019.

Mugabe, who led Zimbabwe’s fight against white-minority rule, has run
the country since 1980. Land reforms, which saw white-owned farms
seized sometimes violently, led to a drop in agriculture output that
curbed growth. The country abandoned its dollar in 2009, bringing in
currencies including the South African rand and U.S. dollar to stem
hyperinflation.

Zimbabwe will decide “sector by sector” what percentage of foreign
companies should be ceded through the country’s indigenization plans
to blacks, Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said on April 22.
Willard Manungo, secretary for finance at the ministry, was in a
meeting and couldn’t comment, his assistant said yesterday by phone.

The country’s main stocks gauge pared its loss this year to 5.8
percent, while spot prices for platinum gained 7.2 percent in 2014 to
$1,470.10 an ounce by 3:56 p.m. in Harare. Zimbabwe has the world’s
biggest reserves of the metal after neighboring South Africa.

“Investors will remain relatively cautious as issues and uncertainties
over Robert Mugabe’s exit remain, no clear direction over
indigenization prevails and growth prospects continue to be
downgraded,” Thea Fourie, Pretoria-based senior economist for
sub-Saharan Africa at risk-analysis company IHS Global Insight, said
in an e-mailed response to questions Aug. 5. “Political issues remain
the biggest obstacle to investment flows.”

Mugabe, 90, may be succeeded by Vice President Joice Mujuru, a
“relatively pragmatic” leader who could usher in investor-friendly
policies, New York-based Eurasia Group said in a July 29 note.

Zimbabwe also sold debt this year to pay back tobacco farmers, whose
earnings were retained between 2006 and 2008 to raise foreign
currency. The country issued $200 million of three- to five-year bonds
last month to banks, according to a person who asked not to be
identified because the sale hasn’t been made public. Reserves are low,
projected by the IMF at $464 million by year-end, or less than a month
of imports. Revenue missed estimates in the first quarter, according
to the Treasury.

“Any debt accumulation, especially if you are living from hand to
mouth, is not sustainable,” Nhlahla Mpofu, an economist at investment
group 4Cast Research, said by phone from Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, on July
31. “It however helps to buy time hoping revenues will soon improve.”

read more




EABL releases FY Earnings 2014 FY PAT +5.157% here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           309.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        244,349,467,584
EPS:            8.22
PE:                 37.59

Full Year Net Revenue 61.292176b versus 59.061875b [restated] +3.776%

FY Cost of Sales [31.098550b] versus [31.562560b]
FY Gross Profit 30.193626B versus 27.499315b  +10.00%
FY Total Costs [19.787007b] versus [16.384396b]
Full Year Profit before Tax 10.406619b versus 11.114919b
Full Year income Tax Expense [3.548011b] versus [4.592719b]
Full Year Profit After Tax 6.858608b versus 6.522200b +5.157%
Full Year Earnings Per share 8.22 versus 8.55 -3.85%
Full Year diluted Earnings Per Share 8.21 versus 8.54 -3.85%
Final Dividend 4.00 shillings a share +1.50 Interim Dividend

Company Commentary


Kenya [64% of NSV] 1% decline in NSV
Uganda [18% of NSV] Net Sales Growth +13%
Tanzania [11% of NSV] Net Sales Growth -1.00%
Export Markets [7% of NSV] +50% Net Sales Growth
One of staff reorganisation costs of 1.2b
Tusker Lager +17%
Guinness +20%
We already knew Senator Volumes have cratered
Net Capex of 6.8b

read more




It was indeed a pleasure interviewing Charles Ireland CEO EABL after the release of Full Year Earnings @Diageo_News
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions


I thought these results were better than expected given the Known
Known that was Senator.
FY Revenue Growth of +3.776% was a significant achievement in those
circumstances.
Strong Growth at Tusker and Guinness and Reserve Spirits +60% and
Emerging Spirits +75%.
I thought these results beat estimates by a margin

read more





ScanGroup reports H1 PBT 2014 +151% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           47.00
Total Shares Issued:          378865102.00
Market Capitalization:        17,806,659,794
EPS:             2.7
PE:                 17.407

The largest marketing services company in East Africa.

H1 2014 versus H1 2013

2.263371b versus 1.805381b +25.4% [10% organic balance via
consolidation of Millward Brown]
Operating and Administrative expenses [2.100986b] versus [1.766293b]
H1 Operating Profit 162.385m versus 39.088m
Net Interest Income 111.727m versus 19.546m [Interest earned on the
subscription amount 1.83b received from Cavendish [WPP PLC]
Foreign Exchange [Loss] or Gain [29.903m] versus 7.980m
H1 Profit before Tax 253.853m versus 101.169m +151%
H1 Profit after Tax 182.690m versus 43.624m
H1 EPS 0.42 versus 0.02

Conclusions


The Network Effect is set to kick in further.
Strong rebound numbers.
remains WPP's SSA Vehicle and of course recently acquired EMPL.

read more


Pan Africa Insurance Company reports H1 PAT -51.16% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           128.00
Total Shares Issued:          96000000.00
Market Capitalization:        12,288,000,000
EPS:             13.05
PE:                 9.808

First listed insurance company on the NSE.

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

H1 Profit Before Tax 494.585m versus 859.562m
H1 Profit After Tax 390.794m versus 800.178m -51.16%
H1 EPS 4.07 versus 8.34 -51.19%
Total Assets +27% to 23b
No Dividend

Company Commentary


Profit before Tax decline attributable to ''significant unrealised
gains on equity investments recognised in investment return on
shareholders' assets in the comparable 2013 period
Lower Property Sales H1 2014 reduced operating surplus 13%
Core life Business Operating Profit +18%
Gross Premium of 2.8b is +30% versus H1 2013

Conclusions


disappointing and the Implied Forward PE is now rich.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

@vimalafrica  @UKenyatta currently speaking to US Investors on the
Great East African Future! @EABCArusha @KEPSA_KENYA

pic.twitter.com/Hu9ZI5ZxH2

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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