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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 13th of August 2014
 
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Amid the continued tensions, Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, plunged as much as 6.9 percent to a record-low 13.715 per dollar yesterday.
Law & Politics


The head of the central bank, Valeriya Gontareva, told lawmakers in
Kiev the hryvnia dropped after “a mood of panic” spread “because of
speculation about the start of a full-scale war.”

read more




The ‘New Now’, where so much content is upstreamed in real time and distributed, curated and amplified before mainstream media can filter.
Law & Politics


Its revolutionary. The crowd is now the narrator and its happening in
real time. Essentially the news is being set ground up whereas once it
was being set up from the top down.

read more



Merrill said that @HillaryClinton “looks forward to hugging it out” with the president @BarackObama at that party.
Law & Politics


The timing of her remarks caused discomfort for the White House
because of the crisis in Iraq. In addition, Clinton and the president
are scheduled to appear together tomorrow night on Martha’s Vineyard
at a birthday party for Ann Dibble Jordan, wife of Vernon Jordan, the
former president of the National Urban League and a confidant of both
Obama and former President Bill Clinton.

Tension has been building between the Obama and Clinton camps since
Aug. 10, when Atlantic writer Jeffrey Goldberg published an interview
with the former secretary of state in which she said “great nations
need organizing principles, and ‘don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an
organizing principle.”

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3366 The euro eased 0.1 percent against the dollar EUR= to
about $1.3362 EUR=. The single currency had dipped to $1.3336 on
Tuesday, coming within a whisker of a nine-month trough of $1.3333 set
last week.
Dollar Index 81.53
Japan Yen 102.30  traded between 103.15 yen and 101.51 yen over the
past couple of weeks.
Swiss Franc 0.9078
Pound 1.6806 The pound held a two-day advance as investors await the
Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report today
Aussie 0.9279 The Australian dollar advanced for a second day after
Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute said their index of
consumer sentiment for August rose 3.8 percent to 98.5, the highest
since April.
India Rupee 61.24
South Korea Won 1027.65
Brazil Real 2.2779
Egypt Pound 7.1490
South Africa Rand 10.6369

The euro lost 0.3 percent in the past month, according to Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed-nation
currencies. The yen climbed 0.6 percent, while the dollar gained 1.7
percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.53

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3366

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The European Union’s statistics office will probably say tomorrow
growth in the euro-area economy weakened to 0.1 percent in the second
quarter from 0.2 percent in the previous period, according to the
median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate
report may confirm consumer prices gained 0.4 percent last month on an
annual basis, the slowest pace in more than four years.

Japan's economy shrank an annualised 6.8 percent in the second
quarter, suffering its biggest contraction since the devastating March
2011 earthquake as a sales tax hike took a heavy toll on household
spending.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/13/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0GB29C20140813

The annualised contraction in gross domestic product, however, was
slightly less than a median market forecast for a 7.1 percent drop.

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1309.42

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 97.16

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.U14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Cora International LLC paid $25.6 million for the uncut, 29.62-carat
stone in February

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/blue-diamond-worth-25-6-million-hints-at-earth-s-origins.html

Petra Diamonds Ltd. recovered the Blue Moon in January at the Cullinan
mine in South Africa. The company also found a 26.6 carat rough blue
diamond that yielded an internally flawless 7-carat polished stone
that sold for $9.49 million in 2009. It unearthed a 122.5-carat blue
diamond in June that will go on display next week for prospective
buyers.

Coming in at 12 carats, Blue Moon is big, but no heavyweight in the
world of luxury stones. It’s turning heads for its clarity, cut and
kaleidoscopic hues of blue. The family of colored diamonds --
technically known as fancy -- also includes reds, greens, yellows and
other shades.

read more



Population boom: 40% of all humans will be African by end of century @geoffreyyork
Africa


A seismic shift in demographic trends is transforming the world into
an increasingly African place, creating huge economic opportunities,
as well as new risks for political instability and extreme poverty, a
United Nations agency says.

“The future of humanity is increasingly African,” says a report by the
UN children’s agency to be issued on Tuesday, based on revised
population forecasts that reveal an unprecedented demographic shift
this century.

Africa accounted for only 9 per cent of the world’s population in
1950, but by the end of this century about 40 per cent of all humans
(and nearly half of all children) will be African, heralding one of
the fastest and most radical demographic changes in history, the
report says.

While every other continent is seeing a slower rise in births, or even
a decline, UNICEF projects that 1.8 billion babies will be born in
Africa over the next 35 years, and the total African population will
nearly quadruple to about 4.2 billion by the end of the century.

Until recently, the UN had predicted that one-third of the world’s
children would be living in Africa by mid-century, yet that prediction
is now believed to be an underestimate. Instead, 37 per cent of the
world’s children will be African by 2050, and more than 40 per cent of
births will take place in Africa.

The population explosion will be biggest in West Africa, especially in
Nigeria. By 2050, Nigeria alone will account for an astounding
one-tenth of all births in the world, the report says, and its total
population will reach nearly a billion by the end of the century.

UNICEF says, predicting that African life expectancy will reach 65
years in the next two decades. (By contrast, in the 1950s, African
life expectancy was less than 40.)

As part of these trends, Africa will become increasingly urbanized and
crowded. In 1950, its population density was just eight persons per
square kilometre. By mid-century, Africa will hold 80 people per
square kilometre. Its megacities will soar in size, with the
population of Lagos nearly doubling to 24 million by 2030 and Kinshasa
growing from 12 million to 20 million in the same period.

read more


Researchers say the outbreak probably began in December with a 2-year-old child in Guinea, and the disease has raced through Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and recently entered Nigeria, which has recorded two Ebola-related deaths as of Aug. 9
Africa


@Independent Ebola claims first European victim as Spanish priest
dies of disease in Madrid

pic.twitter.com/meNcSxp6VS

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.2266% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

51,449.01 -74.26 -0.14%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.6372

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1490

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +36.744% 2014 [Fresh multi Year Highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,274.09 +36.99 +0.40%

@KenRoth  Putin let me in Moscow to issue report on Andijan
massacre but Sisi didn't let me in Cairo for Rab'a massacre report.

pic.twitter.com/nx1HqIlSpv

Report: Mass Killings by Security Forces Egypt Human Rights Watch Video

http://mm.hrw.org/content/egypt-mass-killings-security-forces

Russia to Boost Wheat Supplies to Egypt, Mulls Free Trade Zone-Putin

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/08/12/world/europe/12reuters-ukraine-crisis-russia-egypt.html?ref=world&_r=0

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +1.8461% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

42,092.81 +80.00 +0.19%

"Lagos is big, it's crowded. It would make in many ways a perfect
environment for the virus to spread," said Nigerian epidemiologist
Chikwe Ihekweazu, who runs website Nigeria Health Watch

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0GC1N820140812

"In the heart of Lagos, people live on top of each other, sharing
bedrooms and toilets. In densely populated communities infection
control becomes almost impossible to do well."

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.314%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,259.65 -8.51 -0.38%

Two activists from Swaziland said Tuesday they are worried about their
safety after the Swazi prime minister reportedly said they should be
strangled for traveling to Washington during a recent summit of
African leaders.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/swazi-pm-reportedly-threatens-activists/2014/08/12/7e55bd86-2212-11e4-8b10-7db129976abb_story.html

Labor leader Vincent Ncongwane and lawyer Sipho Gumedze appeared at a
news conference in Johannesburg to express their concern but did not
say when they plan to return to the southern African kingdom. They
called for free expression in Swaziland, which is ruled by King Mswati
III, Africa’s last absolute monarch.

“We have the intention to go home,” Gumedze said. “There is no
guarantee that we will be safe.”

He said he and Ncongwane were unlikely to get a fair trial in the
event of prosecution, and that he was also concerned about eviction
from his rural home if traditional leaders act on the remark by the
prime minister, Sibusiso Barnabas Dlamini.

The prime minister told lawmakers last week that union leaders had
gone to Washington without announcing their plans, the Times of
Swaziland reported.

“They leave your constituencies and do not even inform you where they
are going, and once they come back and you find out that they are from
your constituency, you must strangle them,” the newspaper quoted
Dlamini as saying.

Anadarko harbors some even grander plans. Over the next few decades,
it envisions building as many as 14 refrigerated plants here, says Mr.
MacLiver, the Anadarko executive. Such a scale could rival the world's
biggest hub for exporting liquefied gas in Qatar.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/anadarkos-controversial-mozambique-project-shows-appetite-for-natural-gas-1407810602

read more




Lisbon - The healthy bank carved out of Portugal's heavily indebted Banco Espirito Santo will assume BES's 3 billion euros credit line to a troubled Angolan subsidiary but take provisions for losing the entire amount, the Bank of Portugal said on Tuesday.
Africa


Bank of Portugal said Novo Banco would take on the interbank loans
granted to BES's troubled Angolan subsidiary but that the credit line
had been “fully provisioned”.

“The total provisioning for these credits is only a measure of caution
and does not reflect, in any way, a lack of expectations of recovering
the loans,” the Bank of Portugal added in the statement.

Taking on the loans, while providing for 100 percent losses on them,
means that any money recouped from BES Angola will count as profit for
Novo Banco.

read more


COOP Bank Kenya reports First Half PBT 2014 +15.062% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           19.00
Total Shares Issued:          4190845080.00
Market Capitalization:        79,626,056,520
EPS:             2.17
PE:                 8.756

Group First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

Loans and Advances [Net to Customers] 165.759035b versus 124.922159b +32.689%
First Half Total Assets 266.672685b versus 225.252258b
First Half Total Interest Income 13.651045b versus 11.743502b
First Half Total Interest Expenses 3.720848b versus 2.881310b
First Half Net Interest income 9.930198b versus 8.862192b
First Half Fees and commissions on Loans and Advances 1.028917b versus 0.868748b
First Half other Fees and Commissions 3.869909b versus 2.434541b
First Half Total Non Interest Income 6.238414b versus 4.498174b
First Half Total Operating Income 16.168612b versus 13.360366b
First Half total Staff Costs 4.037123b versus 3.286978b
First Half Profit before Tax 6.755168b versus 5.870886b +15.062%
First Half Profit After Tax 4.715331b versus 4.714073b +0.266%
First Half Earnings Per share 1.13 versus 1.12 +0.89%

Conclusions


 an increase in its effective tax rate (+1,050 bps y/y to 30.2%)
informs us why PBT was +15.062% versus PAT +0.266%
 The effective tax rate increased following the expiry of the bank’s
grant of a lower tax rate for the 5-year period between 2008 and 2013,
as a benefit following its listing on the NSE in 2008.
Not factoring in the higher effective tax rate, the bank’s performance
improved, with its PBT growing 15.1% y/y to KES 6.8bn.

read more





TPS @SerenaHotels share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           36.25
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        6,603,811,415
EPS:             3.45
PE:                 10.507

TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena
brand name.

First Half through 30th June 2014 versus 30th June 2013

First Half Sales 2.711993b versus 2.921193b
Profit before exchange loss, interest, depreciation and Taxation
335.441m versus 486.343m
First Half profit before Income Tax 58.247m versus 205.079m
First Half Profit after Tax 41.475m versus 141.077m
H1 Earnings Per Share 0.13 versus 0.69

Company Commentary


''a challenging business landscape in Kenya''
''Serena Tanzania and Serena Uganda recorded good performances during
the period under review''
Peak Season [July to October 2014] is at satisfactory levels
No Interim Dividend

Conclusions

Those results are better than I in fact expected. Serena is a
diversified Franchise - sure Coastal Tourism is soft and expected to
remain so but there is diversification and the business is worth a
great deal more than its current 6.785b valuation.

26 MILLION KENYAN MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS SENT $12.7 BILLION – IN SIX MONTHS

http://www.pymnts.com/news/2014/26-million-kenyan-mobile-subscribers-sent-12-7-billion-in-six-months/#.U-oamxbWH8s

Mobile money services have more than doubled of Kenya’s banked
population to 67 per cent from a low of 26.1 per cent in 2009.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 87.999

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +12.989% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.969% 2014 [6 month highs]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,023.49 +7.92 +0.16%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Barclays Kenya turns to UK parent firm for Sh4bn loan

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Barclays-Bank-Kenya-Borrowing-Loan-Capital-Base/-/996/2417060/-/790godz/-/index.html

Barclays Bank reports First Half PAT 2014 +13.424% Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTQ%3D

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           17.05
Total Shares Issued:          5431540000.00
Market Capitalization:        92,607,757,000
EPS:             1.4
PE:                 12.179

Barclays Bank first Half Earnings through June 2014 versus through June 2013

First Half Loans and Advances to Customers [Net] 128.446955b versus
107.050039b +19.987%
First Half Total Assets 213.166988b versus 185.562330b +14.876%
First Half Profit before Tax before exceptional items 6.111838b versus
6.263009b -2.4137%
First Half exceptional items 0 versus [0.788259b]
First Half Profit before Tax after exceptional items 6.111838b versus
5.474750b +11.636%
First Half Profit after Tax 4.233294b versus 3.732269b +13.424%
First Half Earnings Per Share 0.78 versus 0.69 +13.043%
No interim Dividend

Company Commentary


Mr Jeremy Awori ''The Banking industry is currently undergoing
unprecedented disruption resultant from a highly dynamic market
environment. We have therefore amplified our innovations agenda...''
''Additionally we have set up an investment Banking Arm''

Barclays Bank of Kenya plans to start a mortgage finance division to
tap demand for housing

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0QI0XZ20140812

The capital markets regulator has approved NIC Bank’s plan to raise
Sh8 billion through a corporate bond to finance expansion.

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/NIC-Bank-Group-MD-John-Gachora-Corporate-Bond/-/996/2417046/-/qg8tt9z/-/index.html

NIC Bank share price data here and First Half Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjM%3D

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           61.50
Total Shares Issued:          542980000.00
Market Capitalization:        33,393,270,000
EPS:             6.12
PE:                 10.049

1st Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

H1 Total assets 129.603862b versus 121.062739b
H1 Loans and Advances to Customers 91.517322b versus 83.493313b
H1 Profit before Income Tax 2.90479b versus 2.627588b +10.7%
H1 Profit after Tax 2.041436b versus 1.866727b +9.4%
H1 EPS 3.38 versus 3.12 +8.4%

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share snapped a 4 session losing Streak to edge 0.10
points higher to close at 154.50.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased 13.36 points to close at 5010.13 and has
closed above the 5,000 Level for the 6th consecutive session.
Previously the NSE20 had been above the 5,000 Level on the 29th of January.
Equity turnover clocked 371.028m and has slowed of late as Sellers
thin out which is normally a bullish Signal.
Equities point higher.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Eaagads rallied 6.35% to close at 33.50 and traded 21,300 shares.
Eaagads is the only Coffee Pure Play at the Securities Exchange and is
+41.052% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased 0.39% to close at 12.75 and traded 2.964m shares worth
37.915m. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Ratio of 2 to 1 and the price is
underpinned here ahead of a move to test all time Highs of 13.15 set
in April this year.

Kenya Airways rallied 1.95% to close at 10.45 and traded 151,900
shares. A big line of Stock has apparently been absorbed and the price
targets 11.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


COOP Bank released First Half Earnings before the Opening Bell this
morning. COOP Bank accelerated its Net Loans and Advances +32.689%,
accelerated First Half Profit Before Tax +15.062% and Profit After Tax
+0.266%. This Deceleration between Profit before Tax and Profit After
Tax was due to an increase in its effective tax rate (+1,050 bps y/y
to 30.2%) following the expiry of the bank's grant of a lower tax rate
for the 5-year period between 2008 and 2013, as a benefit following
its listing on the NSE in 2008. Clearly if you stripped out the Tax
Effect Growth was pegged at around 15%. COOP Bank firmed 0.26% to
close at 19.05 and traded 191,800 shares. Interestingly There were
Buyers for 6x the volume traded at the closing Bell.

Diamond Trust released the results of their recently conducted rights
Issue where 22.010009m shares were on Offer. The Subscription Rate was
440.27% and frankly that was predictable. Diamond Trust did not trade
today.

Kenya Commercial Bank rebounded 1.851% to close at 55.00 and was
trading at 55.50 +2.78% at the Closing Bell. Kenya Commercial Bank is
+17.46% and within striking distance and within 6.77% of a record
closing High of 59.00 set 7th August. Kenya Commercial Bank targets
60.00.
Barclays Bank of Kenya announced plans to start a mortgage finance
division to tap demand for housing a day after releasing their First
Half Earnings and a call on the Parent for 4b shillings.  Barclays
Bank closed unchanged at 17.05 and traded 2.512m shares worth 42.939m.
Buyers ran NIC Bank's share price 3.25% higher to close at 63.50 and
traded shares as high as 65.00 +5.69% during the session. The Positive
Price Catalyst was the news that The capital markets regulator has
approved NIC Bank's plan to raise Sh8 billion through a corporate bond



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


ARM Cement rallied +2.439% to close at 82.00 and traded 1.013m shares
worth 83.607m. ARM reported a 21% First Half 2014 Profit After Tax
Acceleration and is it predictable that 2nd Half There will be
material margin expansion via the on streaming of the Tanga Clinker
Plant. Interestingly, Bamburi Cement cited imported Clinker as one of
the reasons for significant margin compression in their Earnings
Release.
Bamburi Cement retreated 2.79% to close at 174.00 and traded 60,100 shares.

Home Africa rallied 3.703% to close at 4.20 and was trading at session
highs of 4.30 +6.17% at the Finish line. Home Africa has rallied
27.27% since the 1st of this month when it closed at a post Listing
Low.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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