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Thursday 14th of August 2014
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Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
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Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
I said to someone ''Either I am clairvoyant or you are thoroughly
predictable.'' |
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Snow peaks Kilimanjaro 74 days ago Africa |
“the only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to
live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same
time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn,
burn, burn like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders
across the stars.”
― Jack Kerouac, On the Road
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Iraq and Syria’s Poetic Borders BY ELIAS MUHANNA Law & Politics |
The late historian and critic Tony Judt once described Europe before
the First World War as “an intricate, interwoven tapestry of
overlapping languages, religions, communities and nations.” After the
period between 1914 and 1945, as a result of war, ethnic cleansing,
and border drawing, a new, more stable Europe emerged, in which
“almost everybody now lived in their own country, among their own
people.” Thirty million were uprooted and dispersed by Stalin and
Hitler between 1939 and 1943, a process that was repeated after the
defeat of the Axis armies. Germans, Poles, Balts, Croats, Ukrainians,
Hungarians, Slovaks, Romanians, Turks, and many others were shunted
around the continent. The result was “a Europe of nation states more
ethnically homogenous than ever before.”
Is a similar process of nation formation taking place in Iraq and
Syria today? As in Europe, borders were drawn all over the Fertile
Crescent following the First World War, and many of those borders have
now become notional abstractions as millions of refugees flee conflict
zones in Mosul, Aleppo, Homs, and Raqqa. The demographic map of the
region is in flux, and analysts have wasted little time in declaring
that the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham augurs the
death of Sykes-Picot, the British-French treaty that established many
of the Middle East’s modern borders, its creations now unstitched and
exposed in their artificiality.
Dismantling the colonial Middle East is a narrative that ISIS itself
has made a centerpiece of its propaganda. A video posted on YouTube
earlier this summer features a soft-spoken Chilean fighter named Abu
Safiyya hoisting ISIS’s black banner up a flagpole at an abandoned
checkpoint on the Iraqi-Syrian border. The flag flutters as a
pathos-filled soundtrack swells, and the clip’s title, “The End of
Sykes-Picot,” appears on the screen in a handsome sans-serif font.
“Right now, we’re on the side of al-Sham,” or Syria, Abu Safiyya says,
surveying the landscape. “As you can see, this is the so-called border
of Sykes-Picot. … We do not recognize it and we will never recognize
it.” What ISIS recognizes instead is a single, borderless expanse
comprising most of the Middle Eastern territories formerly ruled by
the Ottoman Empire, for a start. With the self-appointment of the
group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as the new caliph of the world’s
1.6 billion Muslims, one can see how a line drawn in the sand of the
Syrian desert might not hold very much significance to him.
The history of the region is one of variegation and multiplicity, and
its indigenous geography has long recognized boundaries, territories,
and localisms where the new caliph and his army see only the
singularity of his rule.
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Brazil presidential candidate Campos killed in plane crash [Planes have been falling out of the Sky like Flies in 2014] Emerging Markets |
(Reuters) - Brazilian presidential candidate Eduardo Campos was killed
in a plane crash on Wednesday, throwing the October election and local
financial markets into disarray.
A private jet carrying Campos and his entourage crashed in a
residential area in bad weather as it prepared to land in the coastal
city of Santos. The accident killed all seven people on board, the Sao
Paulo state fire department said.
Campos, 49, was running on a business-friendly platform and was in
third place in polls with the support of about 10 percent of voters.
While he was not expected to win the Oct. 5 vote, he was widely seen
as one of Brazil's brightest young political stars and his death
instantly changes the dynamics of the race.
Brazilian financial markets initially slumped on the news of Campos'
death and seesawed throughout the day as investors struggled to grasp
what the impact would be on the election.
The Bovespa stock index .BVSP ended 1.53 percent lower after falling
as much as 2 percent, then rebounding and finally dropping again in
late trade. Brazil's currency BRL= BRBY weakened 0.53 percent before
bouncing back.
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Growth and Governance in Africa: Towards a Sustainable Success Story @generalelectric @marcoannunziata Africa |
African businesses are also poised to reap substantial rewards: they
recognize the disruptive potential of accelerating innovation as the
digital world meets the physical, and they are ready to become
enthusiastic early adopters of new technologies. Most importantly,
this is a tremendous opportunity for Africa’s citizens to enjoy a
rapid and sustained rise in living standards.
Africa’s transformation is not yet self-sustaining. Governance and
institutions have improved significantly, but from a low starting
point and lag other growth markets.
The road ahead is long, but the progress already achieved is
impressive. We are optimistic. This is the time to bet on Africa.
After two decades of underperformance, starting in 2001 SSA exceeded
world growth by an average of 2 percentage points per year; since the
great financial crisis it has emerged as the second fastest growing
region, with an average annual growth of over 5 percent, closing in on
emerging Asia. It is still early days, though: SSA accounts for just
about 2 percent of global GDP, even though with over 900 million
inhabitants, it is home to 13 percent of the world’s population.
This demographic trend poses a challenge, to create rapid job growth
to safeguard social stability and ensure rising living standards. But
it also represents a tremendous opportunity: the development of a
large middle class. The process has already begun. Income levels have
been climbing throughout the region, supported by rapid urbanization
and growth of the working-age population; the region’s spending
profile is similar to India and comparable to where China was 20 years
ago.
SSA’s trade with Asia has grown much faster than with any other
region, overtaking trade with Europe in 2010, and reaching over a
third of the region’s total trade in 2013. China, the region’s largest
single trading partner, accounts for roughly half of that figure.
Overall, SSA’s share of fuels, unprocessed metals and raw agricultural
materials out of total goods exports is about 55 percent: nearly
one-half of the region’s exports are goods and services other than
commodities.
A proposed Bilateral Investment Treaty between the U.S. and East
Africa would substantially expand opportunities for countries in the
region, as would deeper trade integration in West Africa. Trade
agreements should be complemented by a push to develop a common
infrastructure strategy: a denser, interconnected network of transport
and communication lines linking together SSA countries would greatly
facilitate trade and a more efficient allocation of resources,
boosting economic growth, employment and productivity.
Foreign direct investment inflows to SSA rose from $6.4 billion in
2000 to $42 billion in 2013. Over the past few years, a rising share
of capital is flowing to domestic-oriented sectors, such as finance,
telecommunications and retail trade. According to U.N. data, the share
of consumer-related greenfield projects in Africa rose from 7 percent
in 2008 to close to a quarter of all projects in 2012.
SSA has made limited progress so far in developing a manufacturing
sector. While total manufacturing production has grown by 50 percent
since the turn of the century, the sector’s value added as a share of
GDP declined from 12 percent in 2000 to less than 10 percent in 2012.
Manufacturing is essential to create jobs for large numbers of
unskilled and semi-skilled workers, raising incomes; moreover, it
offers the best possibilities for technology transfer and learning.
The knowledge and skills acquisition that takes place within firms
complements the contribution of the formal education system and
enhances the competitiveness of the workforce.
Development of a stronger manufacturing sector in Africa is impeded by
two main factors: (1) Infrastructure bottlenecks, notably in power
generation and distribution and in transportation networks; and (2)
Still weak and challenging business environments.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s greatest infrastructure challenge is power
generation. The entire region of approximately 900 million people
generated roughly 15 percent less electricity than South Korea (with
50 million people) in 2011. Only 35 percent of the population in SSA
has access to electricity, while in South Asia, which has similar
per-capita income levels, the figure is twice as high.
In fact, the African business executives polled in the GE 2014
Innovation Barometer rank above the global average in their conviction
that the meshing of the digital world with the physical world of
machines is bringing about a new industrial revolution. The barometer
shows that a strong majority (about 80 percent) of business executives
in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa see innovation as a positive force
that has already helped raise living standards in their countries.
They recognize that innovation is increasingly becoming a global game,
and that collaboration, across small and large companies, universities
and government organizations, is essential to innovate successfully.
The viral success of M-Pesa, the mobile banking and micro- financing
system that quickly by-passed the relative under- development of
traditional banking, is a case in point.
We take an instrumentalist approach to the question of “what is
governance?” For the purposes of this analysis, we define governance
as a government’s ability to equitably deliver the core functions of
state to its citizens. This is in line with Francis Fukuyama’s view of
“...governance as a government’s ability to make and enforce rules,
and to deliver services, regardless of whether that government is
democratic or not.” 2 We add the notion of equity to Fukuyama’s
definition because we feel it plays an especially important role in
Africa’s context.
To some extent, the dissatisfaction recorded by Afrobarometer may
reflect the fact that the bar of expectations has been raised both by
the improvement recorded so far and by the greater ease with which
young Africans today can benchmark their situation against their peers
in more developed economies, thanks to greater digital access to
information.
. If policies keep moving in the right direction, the region’s upside
potential is enormous.
The region’s future could play out in one of four different scenarios,
depending on the speed of progress in economic and governance reform:
Africa ascending.
Back to the future. This is the worst case scenario.
Treading water.
Run & stumble.
A lot more work is needed, however, to push progress beyond the
tipping point where it will become self- sustaining. Africa has so far
been harvesting the low hanging fruits, putting in place Just Enough
Governance to spark a rapid improvement in economic performance. To
sustain it will require greater investment in infrastructure, to give
everyone access to power and health care; the development of a strong
manufacturing sector, to generate a rapid growth in jobs and incomes;
the bolstering of education and training; greater regional and global
trade integration; and a substantial further improvement of
institutions and business conditions. The challenges are formidable,
but so are the opportunities. Public and private sector actors have a
huge interest in working together to lay the basis for strong,
sustainable and equitable economic growth. It will not be easy, and it
will not be smooth. But the economic success of the last decade and a
half shows that the process has begun: Africa is ascending.
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Generation 2030/AFRICA @UNICEF Africa |
“It can be said that there are four basic and primary things that the
mass of people in a society wish for: to live in a safe environment,
to be able to work and provide for themselves, to have access to good
public health and to have sound educational opportunities for their
children.” These words belong to Nelson Mandela.
Consider this: on current trends, almost 2 billion babies will be born
in Africa in the next 35 years. Over the same period Africa’s under-18
population will increase by two thirds, reaching almost 1 billion by
mid-century; and close to half of the world population of children
will be African by the end of the 21st century.
Our previous reporting of one in every three children in the world
living in Africa by 2050 has proven to be an underestimate: the
population revisions now indicate that by mid-century the continent
will be home to around 41 per cent of all of the world’s births, 40
per cent of all global under-fives, and 37 per cent of all children
(under-18s).
Africa has experienced a marked increase in its population in last few
decades. Its current population is five times its size in 1950. And
the continent’s rapid population expansion is set to continue, with
its inhabitants doubling from 1.2 billion to 2.4 billion between 2015
and 2050, and eventually reaching 4.2 billion by 2100.
• The future of humanity is increasingly African. More than half the
projected 2.2 billion rise in the world population in 2015-2050 is
expected to take place in Africa, even though the continent’s
population growth rate will slow. On current trends, within 35 years,
1 in every 4 people will be African, rising to 4 in 10 people by the
end of the century. Back in 1950, only 9 among 100 of the world’s
number of inhabitants were African.
• With its inhabitants set to soar, Africa will become increasingly
crowded, with its population density projected to increase from 8
persons per square kilometre in 1950 to 39 in 2015 and to about 80 by
mid-century.
In 2050, around 41 per cent of the world’s births, 40 per cent of all
under-fives, 37 per cent of all children under 18 and 35 per cent of
all adolescents will be African — higher than previously projected. In
1950, only about 10 per cent of the world’s births, under-fives,
under-18s and adolescents were African.
• The population of Africa’s under-fives will swell by 51 per cent
from 179 million in 2015 to 271 million in 2050 and its overall child
population (under-18s) will increase by two thirds from 547 million in
2015 to almost 1 billion by mid-century.
• It is projected that 1.1 billion children under 18 will be living in
Africa by 2100, accounting for almost half (47 per cent) of the world
population of children at that time.
In Africa, one in every 11 children born still dies before their fifth
birthday, a rate 14 times greater than in the average in high-income
countries.
Today, Africans’ average life expectancy at birth is 58 years
Currently, 40 per cent of Africa's population lives in cities. The
past few decades have seen a frenetic pace of urbanization,
considering that in 1950 just 14 per cent, and in 1980 just 27 per
cent of the continental population was classified as living in urban
areas.
• By late 2030s, Africa is set to become a continent with more
population living in urban than in rural areas. On current trends, by
mid-century almost 60 per cent of Africa's population will live in
cities.
• Africa’s urban children are increasingly likely to grow up in the
continent’s rapidly expanding megacities with 10 million or more
inhabitants. Lagos, Africa's second biggest urban agglomeration, will
see its population swell by 1.8 times over the next 15 years from 13
million in 2015 to 24 million in 2030, while the populace of
Al-Qahirah (Cairo), currently in first place, will expand from 19
million to 25 million over the same period.
Of the 34 countries classified by the World Bank in 2014 as having
fragile and conflict-affected contexts, 20 are African.
• Around one fourth of the continent's population resides in these 20
countries, which also account for almost three in 10 African children
under 18, totalling 143 million. Almost 3 in every 10 births in
Africa, and one third of all under-five deaths in Africa, occur in
countries with fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
About 60 per cent of the African population — and 70 per cent of
sub-Saharan Africa -- survives on less than US$2 per day. In the two
subregions of Eastern Africa and West Africa, about three quarters of
the population lives on less than US$2 per day.
by 2015 one fifth of the continent’s births will take place in that
country alone, accounting for 5 per cent of all global births. From
2015 to 2030, 136 million births will take place in Nigeria — 19 per
cent of all African babies and 6 per cent of the global total. By
2050, Nigeria alone will account for almost one tenth of all births in
the world.
In the next 35 years, 1.8 billion babies will be born in africa; the
continent’s population will double in size; and its under-18
population will increase by two thirds to reach almost 1 billion.
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HVS African Hotel Valuation Index reveals hotel rooms in Seychelles have the highest value Africa |
Hotels in the Seychelles have the highest value per room across
Africa, according to the first annual African Hotel Valuation Index
(HVI) compiled by hotel valuation specialist HVS London.
The survey of internationally branded properties covers 14 African
markets including Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Angola
and Zambia. The HVI ranks each market relative to an African average
and monitors annual percentage changes in the values of four- and
five-star hotels, reporting the average value per room in each region
in US dollars.
Hotels in the Seychelles demonstrated the highest value per room
(US$522,000) largely because of the high quality of properties on the
islands and high barriers to entry, along with its reputation as a
luxury leisure destination. Occupancy in the Seychelles is around 65%,
although visitation to the region has grown by 8% from 2008 to 2013.
In terms of value growth hotels in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, a
city that was built in the 1980s, have seen a rapid rise in value from
US$450,200 in 2012 to US$492,000 in 2013, ranking it second in the
HVI. Hotels in Nigeria are expected to retain their position as one of
the top performers because hotel supply is limited.
With an average hotel rooms value of US$380,300 Lagos, the centre of
Nigeria’s modern economy, is one of the hot spots of Africa’s hotel
development. The city already boasts a number of internationally
branded hotels, including the newly-opened 352-room InterContinental.
More than 4,000 are in the pipeline for development and occupancy in
the high 60%s.
Lack of supply was the reason hotels in the Angolan capital city of
Luanda reached third place in the valuation index at US$471,000 per
room. The city, despite having high levels of poverty, is acknowledged
to be one of the most expensive in the world with accommodation in
short supply and the oil industry employing a high level of
foreigners. Value increases of 15% in 2013 meant that Luandan hotels
have seen the highest rise in room value of the 14 markets surveyed
for the African HVI.
Hotels in Nairobi have been amongst the most turbulent over the past
few years, largely because of the country’s political problems and
terrorist attacks. However, values per room have remained virtually
unchanged from 2009 to 2013 at around US$160,00, with last year being
another year of recovery.
“Recent events in Kenya and Nigeria remind us of the unique challenges
hotel investors to this continent face. It is not for the
faint-hearted, but returns available can compensate for the risks,”
said HVS director Tim Smith, co-author of the report.
“The African continent is one of fastest growing emerging markets in
the world with rapidly evolving economies and developing local wealth
which is leading to an increased demand for hotels that is not
satisfied by current stock.”
Global valuation and strategic specialist HVS has recently increased
its interest in Africa as a result of investor demand for local
knowledge across the continent. A new HVS office will open later this
year in Cape Town, reflecting the demand for investment expertise.
“There is enormous demand from operators and investors to add to hotel
supply across the African continent, but the challenge is to
understand where and when to open these hotels. HVS has now developed
a comprehensive understanding of hotel supply and demand across Africa
and we are now well placed to advise on development opportunities,”
Smith added.
“We are hugely excited about the launch of the inaugural African HVI,”
commented report co-author and HVS director Sophie Perret. “We look
forward to expanding the survey into new markets as more data becomes
available in future years.”
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Diamond Trust Bank reports H1 PAT 2014 +10.23964% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 4/-
Closing Price: 244.00
Total Shares Issued: 220100096.00
Market Capitalization: 53,704,423,424
EPS: 21.61
PE: 11.291
Prominent Kenyan commercial bank
First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013
First Half Loans and Advances to Customers [net] 120.201701b versus
94.816302b +26.773%
First Half Total Assets 179.644371b versus 142.713801b +25.877%
First Half Interest Income 9.851440b versus 8.013821b +22.93%
First Half Interest Expense [3.689261b] versus [2.874834b] +28.32%
First Half Net Interest Income 6.162179b versus 5.138987b
Net Fee and Commission Income 1.076191b versus 0.997874b
First Half Operating Income 8.006600b versus 6.844208b +16.983586%
First Half Operating Expenses [3.537267b] versus [2.948815b] +19.9555%
First Half Profit before Income Tax 4.105257b versus 3.501716b +17.2355%
First Half Profit After Tax 2.940691b versus 2.667544b +10.23964%
First Half Earnings Per Share 11.93 versus 11.14 +7.091%
Net Decrease in cash and cash equivalents [7.312321b]
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 2.186758b versus 9.886704b
Conclusions
Its a well organised Bank.
The Rights Issue was subscribed 440.27%.
Earnings have decelerated a little, however.
Diamond Trust Bank 13-AUG-2014 2014 Rights Issue Results
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Diamond%20Trust%20Bank%20-%202014%20Rights%20Issue%20results.pdf
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@KCBGroup 1st Half 2014 Earnings release and share price data here Kenyan Economy |
African M-Pesa technology expands in Europe @AFPhttp://www.fin24.com/Tech/News/African-M-Pesa-technology-expands-in-Europe-20140813"From east Africa to eastern Europe, that's quite phenomenal when you think about it," Michael Joseph, who heads Vodafone's Mobile Money business, said in the Kenyan capital Nairobi. "I think that this is something the rest of the world can look at, to say that there are ideas that can emanate out of the developing world, and take it to the developed world." Romania is the latest nation Vodafone is tapping, with its first European launch last March. "Technology that started out in Kenya is being exported to Europe," said 24-year-old Rhoda Kibuchi, who runs an M-Pesa outlet in Nairobi. "It's good news."
M-Pesa The Jewel in the @Safaricomltd Crown 825 days agohttp://www.twitpic.com/9jcude
@Safaricomltd share price data herehttp://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D
"Our South Sudan subsidiary, which started operations in September
2013 is on the verge of breaking even and contributing positively to
our profitability this year. Ethiopia and Uganda remain our new
frontiers," Gideon Muriuki, Co-op Kenya's managing directorhttp://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0GD0J820140813
COOP Bank 1st Half 2014 Earnings release and share price data herehttp://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTY%3D
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 88.101http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.0625% 2014http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND154.50 +0.10 +0.06%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.705% 2014 [has closed above 5,000 since
August 5th previously January 29th]http://j.mp/ajuMHJ5,010.13 -13.36 -0.27%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated herehttp://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
The yield on Kenya's 364-day Treasury bills inched down to 10.263
percent at auction on Wednesday while that on six-months bills was
flat at 8.700 percent, the central bank said.http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFJ8N0NK00J20140813
Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy, now owes China a total of Sh80.9
billion, the debt pile having risen 30 per cent in 12 months to May,
according to the Treasury’s 2014 Debt Bulletin.http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/China-beats-Japan-to-become-Kenya-s-top-foreign-financier-/-/539552/2418376/-/i9txq/-/index.html
@Samsung electronics opens engineering academy in Nairobi @SamsungmobileKehttp://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Samsung-electronics-opens-engineering-academy-in-Nairobi/-/539550/2418086/-/9cdfb/-/index.htmlRobert Ngeru, Samsung’s vice president for east and central Africa, said the academy is part of the company’s strategy to train 10,000 technical engineers in Africa and address skill-gaps by next year. “The essence of this programme is to impart practical skills to students who have only learnt theory in class and make them competitive in the job market,” he said. Mr Ngeru added that the skills learnt in the academy would energise young people to chart their own entrepreneurial paths for wealth creation. Some 200 Kenyan students have graduated since 2012 when the programme started. The electronics giant also has another training academy in Westlands, Nairobi.
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