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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 15th of August 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"The butterfly counts not months but moments, and has time enough."
-- Rabindranath Tagore

"I seem to have loved you in numberless forms, numberless times, in
life after life, in age after age forever."
-- Rabindranath Tagore

"Reach high, for stars lie hidden in you. Dream deep, for every dream
precedes the goal."
-- Rabindranath Tagore

"Don't limit a child to your own learning, for she was born in another time."
-- Rabindranath Tagore

Frankly Thats how I feel about my Hannah.

Hannah on her Birthday
http://www.twitpic.com/e46hf2

"The true life is not reducible to words spoken or written, not by
anyone, ever."- Don DeLillo, Point Omega

read more




In a speech, Iraq's two-term leader Maliki said that he accepted the candidacy of Haider al-Abadi
Law & Politics


Prime Minister Maliki when he visited @BarackObama

https://unobama.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/obamameetsnourialmaliki.jpg

Islamic State Said to Challenge Al-Qaeda for Leadership

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/islamic-state-said-to-challenge-al-qaeda-for-leadership.html

The U.S. intelligence community thinks the Islamic State has an
incentive to conduct a major terrorist strike against U.S. or European
targets, in part to further assert itself as the true leader of
radical Islam, the officials said. There's evidence that the group is
establishing cells beyond Iraq and Syria, they said.

There's a "competition for jihadi leadership" in which the Islamic
State disparages al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri and his lieutenants
for hiding in the mountains as it tries to seize the global jihadi
crown, retired U.S. Army Colonel Derek Harvey, a former senior analyst
on Iraq for General David Petraeus, said at a panel on Iraq today
hosted by the New America Foundation, a Washington policy
organization.

IS began as al-Qaeda in Iraq, was suppressed by U.S. forces and local
Sunni tribesmen during the so-called "surge" in 2006-2007, then
transformed itself into the Islamic State of Syria and the Levant and
finally into its current form, the Islamic State.

The Obama administration also may have underestimated the Islamic
State's capabilities in Iraq and Syria -- with the president famously
comparing it to a junior varsity team -- in part because of the
president's reluctance to put his "toe, foot and then leg" back into
Iraq, said Harvey.

Its leader, known by his nom de guerre, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,
frequently on the move between hiding places in Iraq and Syria, is in
control, though he doesn't micromanage the group's actions, officials
said.

The Islamic State is essentially self-funding, able to draw on
hundreds of millions of dollars through taxes, money looted from
banks, sales of oil from areas it now controls, extortion and other
measures, the intelligence officials said.

That means one key element of the strategy used against al-Qaeda --
curbing the money flow from the Persian Gulf and other outside sources
-- wouldn't be effective, they said.

While the U.S. intelligence community had estimated that the Islamic
State had about 10,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq before it captured
Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, that estimate is now being revised
upward, the intelligence officials said.

The officials said the Islamic State's ranks are bolstered by
thousands of foreign fighters, including some from Europe and the U.S.
whom officials said may return home with orders or independent plans
to hit targets. That threat is highlighted by recent arrests in
Europe, including about 40 men detained in Kosovo who reportedly had
been fighting for the Islamic State.

he Islamic State is essentially self-funding, able to draw on hundreds
of millions of dollars through taxes, money looted from banks, sales
of oil from areas it now controls, extortion and other measures, the
intelligence officials said.

That means one key element of the strategy used against al-Qaeda --
curbing the money flow from the Persian Gulf and other outside sources
-- wouldn't be effective, they said.

Islamic State militants are "better equipped, they're better manned,
they're better resourced, they're better fighters, they're better
trained than the al-Qaeda in Iraq that our forces faced," Brett
McGurk, deputy assistant U.S. secretary of state for Iraq and Iran,
said yesterday on the Charlie Rose show.

"It is a global expansionist, global jihadist organization" he said.
"It is swollen with foreign fighters and suicide bombers" who will go
"wherever the organization tells them to go. And that could very
easily be capitals in the region, it could be capitals in Europe and,
God forbid, it could be here."

The intelligence community doesn't anticipate a move against Baghdad
soon because the Iraqi capital is defended by security forces and
Shiite militias, the officials said. It's an unlikely target, since
the vast majority of city's population are Shiites who would fight the
Sunni insurgent group, the officials said.

Conclusions


The Complexity for the US is that IS is extremely well heeled and
supported by US Allies in the region.

read more







Fort Detrick was the center of US government chem/bio warfare research.
Law & Politics


Here is the opening quote from the document:

"In early 1952, CIA effected an agreement with the Army Chemical Corp
for the performance of certain research and development work by the
Army Chemical Corp at the laboratory facilities of Special Operations
Division, Army Biological Laboratories, Frederick, Maryland."

And here is a key quote about a research project:

"Adaptation and testing of a non-discernible microbioinoculator
(device for clandestine inoculation with BW/CW
[biowarfare/chemicalwarfare] agents) to determine compatibility with
various materials to assure that the microbioinoculator cannot be
identified structurally or easily detected upon a detailed autopsy..."

read more






Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3368
Dollar Index 81.59
Japan Yen 102.54
Swiss Franc 0.9064
Pound 1.6690
Aussie 0.9326
India Rupee 60.885
South Korea Won 1021.20
Brazil Real 2.2665
Egypt Pound 7.1476
South Africa Rand 10.5439

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.59 [The Dollar is set to push on
and corrections will be shallow]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The average cost of options betting on a decline in Brazil's real,
Indonesia's rupiah, South Africa's rand, Turkey's lira and India's
rupee has jumped to the highest level in almost five months, data
compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/fragile-five-looking-fragile-again-as-fed-takes-root.html

"Each month that goes by, you're coming closer to the point when
you're going to be tightening," Alan Ruskin, the global head of Group
of 10 foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank AG in New York, said by phone
yesterday. "You're picking up pennies in front of the steam roller --
you've got to be very careful indeed."

In the last six months, the real's 5.4 percent appreciation made it
the second-best major currency in the world, trailing just the
Colombian peso's 7.2 percent rally, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.

The rand's 3 percent gain made it the sixth-best performer, with the
rupee, the lira and the rupiah coming in seventh, ninth and tied for
10th.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3368

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

traders reporting that the yield had touched 0.998 percent. French
yields fell as well, to 1.392 percent, also a record low. Spanish bond
yields reached record lows as well, dropping to 2.42 percent

read more




Ebola Threatens Growth as Costs Squeeze Budgets, Moody's Say
Africa


The world's worst outbreak of Ebola may inflict "broad" economic
damage on the West African countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra
Leone, according to Moody's Investors Service.

Commercial and transport disruptions that will probably last for at
least the next month, along with increased health expenditure, may put
pressure on budgets, jeopardizing the nations' economic growth, Matt
Robinson, a senior credit officer at Moody's in London, wrote in a
report today.

"Ebola threatens to have significant economic and fiscal ramifications
for a number of sovereigns in the region," Robinson said. "The
outbreak risks having a direct financial effect on government budgets
via increased health expenditures that could be significant, and an
indirect effect arising from an Ebola-induced economic slowdown on
government revenue generation in a region where budgets are already
hindered by low tax collection."

The outbreak that has killed more than 1,000 people, the worst since
the virus was first identified in 1976, has spread to Nigeria,
Africa's most populous nation of about 170 million. There is no cure
for the disease, which is normally treated by keeping patients
hydrated, replacing lost blood and using antibiotics to fight
opportunistic infections.

Three people have died so far in Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer.
Should it spread further, "the consequences for the west African oil
and gas industry would be considerable," Robinson said.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.413784% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

51,073.90 -192.61 -0.38%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.5439

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1476

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +38.39575% 2014 Fresh Multi Year Highs

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,386.57 +98.33 +1.06%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +1.0186% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

41,750.41 -2.80 -0.01%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +4.4289% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,240.89 -0.27 -0.01%

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the U.S.'s largest oil company, ended
exploration plans with Total SA (FP) in South Sudan, Total and the
government said, a sign of faltering investor confidence

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-13/exxon-abandons-oil-search-with-total-in-south-sudan-as-war-rages.html

read more




"HE the President has asked Major-General Gichangi to remain in his role until a replacement is nominated" Esipisu
Kenyan Economy


A statement read on national television by President Uhuru Kenyatta's
spokesman Manoah Esipisu said Michael Gichangi, a fighter jet pilot
who rose to the rank of major general in the armed forces, had
resigned on personal grounds.

"His Excellency the President has asked Major-General Gichangi to
remain in his role until a replacement is nominated," Esipisu said in
the statement.

Gichangi was appointed to lead the National Intelligence Service in
2006 for a five year term, which was renewed in 2011.

Kenyan security bosses have been severely criticised in the wake of
the Westgate attack for failing to stop the attackers from the al
Shabaab group who said they launched the attacks to punish the country
for sending its troops into Somalia in 2011.

The criticism grew after a mid-June attack in the coastal town of
Mpeketoni, in which at least 50 people were killed, after Kenyatta
said intelligence on the impending attack was available but it had not
been acted on.

Esipisu said Kenyatta had also reshuffled his principal secretaries,
the No.2 bureaucrats in ministries, the most notable being the
transfer of Mutea Iringo from the interior ministry to the defence
ministry.

Iringo was replaced with Monica Juma.

Kenyatta also nominated new ambassadors including Njeru Githae, a
former finance minister, to the coveted Washington post. Githae is a
key ally of Kenyatta who was beaten in a contest for the governorship
of a rural county in last year's election.

Conclusions


I once was wandering around Chandarana in Muthaiga and I turned a
corner and there was the Major-General and he raised an eyebrow as if
he had been waiting for me.

Major-General Gichangi

http://nairobiwire.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/gich.jpg

read more


Standard Chartered Kenya reports 1st PAT Half Earnings 2014 +34.1769% here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           312.00
Total Shares Issued:          309159514.00
Market Capitalization:        96,457,768,368
EPS:             29.42
PE:                 10.605

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

First Half Loans and Advances to Customers [Net] 131.699706b versus
118.369916b +11.2611%
First Half total Assets 228.719900b versus 213.755222b +7.0008%
First Half Total Interest Income 10.914887b versus 10.420669b +4.7426%
First Half Total Interest Expenses 2.154853b versus 2.402068b -10.291%
First Half Net Interest Income 8.760034b versus 8.018601b +9.2464%
First Half other Income 1.840248b versus 0.655165b +280.88%
First Half Total Non Interest Income 4.992609b versus 3.811324b
First Half Total Operating Income 13.752643b versus 11.829925b
First Half Staff Costs 2.583832b versus 2.521234b
First Half Total Other Operating Expenses 5.664788b versus 5.290912b +7.066%
First Half Profit Before Tax 8.087855b versus 6.539013b +23.686%
First Half Profit after Tax 6.060905b versus 4.517100b +34.1769%
First Half Earnings Per Share 19.60 versus 14.61 +34.154%

Conclusions


strong results and on neutral balance sheet expansion Total Assets +7.008%.
very attractive on a Forward PE Basis
and I as i mentioned in a board presentation the share needs to be split.
the Optics of such a high price is capping the Price.

read more


Kenya Re reports First Half Earnings PAT 2014 +4.577% here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           17.70
Total Shares Issued:          700000000.00
Market Capitalization:        12,390,000,000
EPS:             4.29
PE:                 4.126

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

First Half Net Written Premium 4.472360b versus 3.663045b +22.094%
First Half Investment Income 1.333295b versus 1.22361ob +8.964%
First Half Total Income 5.522901b versus 4.653250b +18.689%
First Half Claims and Policyholders benefits [2.410590b] versus
[1.751897b] +37.5988%
First Half Total Outgo [3.793571b] versus [3.024765b] +25.4170%
First Half Profit before Tax 1.729330b versus 1.628485b +6.19256%
First Half Profit After Tax 1.248290b versus 1.193655b +4.577%
First Half Earnings Per Share 1.78 versus 1.71 +4.0935%

Conclusions


Revenues +22.094% but First Half claims outpaced that at +37.5988%
Its a Cheap share versus its peers on a PE of 4.126.

read more


CIC Insurance reports First Half PAT 2014 +296.98% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           9.00
Total Shares Issued:          2178195820.00
Market Capitalization:        19,603,762,380
EPS:             0.67
PE:                 13.433

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

First half Net Earned premiums 5.952481b versus 4.488731b +32.609%
First Half Investment and Other Income 538.742m versus 537.423m
First Total Income 6.491223b versus 5.026154b +29.148%
First Half Net Claims and policyholders benefits [4.501004b] versus
[3.396047b] +32.536%
First Half Operating and other expenses [1.834373b] versus [1.537809b] +19.284%
First Half total Expenditure [6.335377b] versus [4.933856b] +28.406%
First Half Profit Before Tax 154.360m versus 92.298m +67.24%
First Half Profit after Tax 138.348m versus 34.850m +296.98%
First Half Earnings Per share 0.06 versus 0.02 +200%

''To sustain the growth momentum,the group is pursuing regional
expansion, micro insurance, new channels of distribution and
investment diversification strategies.''

Conclusions


There is a second Half Bias in CIC's results.
Whilst Profit before Tax surged +67.24% even after that surge H1 EPS
represented 8.95522% of FY 2013 EPS.

read more


.@Delta Air Lines Inc may become the first carrier to fly directly to Kenya from the US
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Airways plans to more than double the number of routes it flies
and increase the size of its fleet to 107 aircraft as part of a
decade-long expansion plan, it said in 2012. The company took delivery
of its third Boeing Co. (BA) 787-800 Dreamliner airplane this month
and has ordered six more of the aircraft. Its fleet also consists of
another 28 Boeing passenger and cargo aircraft and 18 Embraer SA (ERJ)
jets.

KQ, which flies 44 times a week to 10 West African cities, said it
would continue servicing all the destinations' routes, partly with the
support of the government which sent Kenyan doctors to Liberia to
assess the situation.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Why-KQ-has-defied-pressure-to-abandon-West-Africa-route-/-/539550/2419412/-/1525uloz/-/index.html

READ: Crisis team to visit Ebola-hit West Africa as KQ flights continue

KQ's strong opposition to abandoning the West African routes is
informed by the huge contribution that Africa makes to the airline's
revenues.

The airline earned about Sh48.6 billion (or 54 per cent of last year's
Sh90.1 billion annual revenue) from African operations -- excluding
Kenya -- where it flies to about 36 destinations.

West Africa's contribution to the total Africa revenue is significant
because the region accounts for 10 or more than a quarter of the
destinations.

KQ's refusal to stop flying to West Africa is also driven by the fact
that its main rival, Ethiopian Airlines and even upcoming RwandAir
have braved the Ebola crisis to continue servicing the region.

Insight into Frontier and SSA Tourism Interview with: Mahmud Jan
Mohamed @SerenaHotels @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXiD7W9lIJ0&feature=youtu.be

Insight into EAC Beverage Markets An Interview with Charles Ireland MD
East African Breweries Full Year 2014 Earnings Diageo @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNAkvqox4iw&feature=youtu.be

We have been around for 92 years says Charles Ireland EABL CEO
Full Year Earnings release @Serenahotels

http://www.twitpic.com/e9prsv

Insight into EAC Banking Interview with @JoshuaOigara CEO @KCBGroup @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKLDclnfluQ

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 88.102 [Key Support is 88.25]

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.0625% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

154.50 0.000.00%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.8879% 2014 [Has closed above 5,000 since August 5th]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,019.28 +9.15 +0.18%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

The bank reported a 48 per cent jump in the net earnings from its
subsidiaries in Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi to Sh770 million, which
group managing director Nasim Devji attributed to a strong performance
from small and medium sized enterprise (SMEs) lending across the
region.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/DTB-posts-half-year-profit-of-Sh2-94-billion-/-/539550/2419344/-/g3vs1nz/-/index.html

Ms Devji said DTB is looking to complete its feasibility studies for
expansion into Madagascar and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) with
a view to establishing a presence in one of these countries within the
next 15 months.

This is part of a wider expansion plan that will see DTB also
establish a presence in Rwanda, Mozambique and South Sudan.

DTB's expansion to Madagascar and DRC could have been informed by
focus on the mineral rich countries' SME sectors.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi NSE20 Index which closed above 5,000 for every session
since August 5th [and was previously above 5,000 on January 29th]
rallied 23.62 points to close a fresh 6 month High of 5042.90.
The Bulls will be encouraged by the NSE20's price action in August.
The Nairobi All Share edged 0.03 points higher to close at 155.39.
The All Share is +13.713% in 2014 and just 0.8233% below a record
closing High set on the 6th of this month.
Equity Turnover was 492.266m and in fact the Turnover clock speed has
slowed of late signalling sell side supply exhaustion and a move
higher as Buyers will have to look higher for lines of stock.
Equity Bank and Kenya Commercial Bank traded 56.10% of the volume traded today.
The Shilling was last trading at 88.10. 88.25-88.50 is a key area of
chart support for the shilling and is expected to hold.
Crude Oil Prices have retreated more than 10% in the past 4 weeks and
this will lift some of the pressure off the Shilling.
Its been Results season at the Bourse.
KenGen rallied 9.31% to close at a 3 month high. The Oversubscription
of the Eurobond informs us that KenGen's supersized cash call is
infinitely more feasible than it was pre Eurobond.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Marshalls EA was the 2nd biggest Winner at the Exchange and closed at
9.60 +6.67% and traded 3,000 shares.
Car and General rallied 6.25% to close at 46.75 and traded 10,300
shares. Car and General has rallied 55.8333% Year to date.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered rallied 1.28% to close at 316.00 and was trading at
320.00 +2.56% session highs at the Finish. Standard Chartered traded
1,300 shares, there were 30 Buyers for every 1 Seller at the Finish
Line. Standard Chartered reported the fastest growth of the Big Cap
Banks. Stanchart reported that First Half Profit after Tax accelerated
+34.1769% to 6.060905b and First Earnings Per share improved +34.154%.
Standard Chartered has subsequent to the reporting Period for these
Earnings taken up an aggressive position via the Mortgage Market which
signals that this 6 month performance will gain more Traction via
Balance sheet expansion. One of the challenges for Standard Chartered
is that the optics of the share price 320.00 is certainly tapering the
upside action. The Share will predictably be split over the next 12
months, I venture.
Diamond Trust Bank rallied 2.03% to close at 251.00. DTB reported a
+17.2355% First Half Profit before Tax Acceleration. Ms Devji DTB MD
said the Bank is looking to complete its feasibility studies for
expansion into Madagascar and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) with
a view to establishing a presence in one of these countries within the
next 15 months.
This is part of a wider expansion plan that will see DTB also
establish a presence in Rwanda, Mozambique and South Sudan.

Kenya Commercial Bank improved 0.892% to close at 56.5o but
interestingly was trading session highs of 57.50 +2.68% at the closing
bell. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2.228m shares worth 126.823m. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +19.576% Year to date and sits 4.42% below an All
Time Closing High of 59.00 set on the 5th of this month. KCB trades on
a PE of 11.721 and accelerated H1 2014 PAT +13.62%.
Equity Bank was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
eased 0.54644% to close at 45.50 and traded 3.272m shares worth
149.377m. Equity Bank was trading at session highs of 46.25 +1.09% at
the finish line. Equity Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 12.674 and
accelerated H1 PAT 2014 +21.451%. Equity Bank has posted a blistering
+47.96% Year to date.
It was a pleasure catching up with Barclays Bank's MD Jeremy Awori
over Lunch today and on the day Barclays Bank firmed 0.58% to close at
17.30 and traded 2.003m shares worth 34.724m. Buyers outpaced Sellers
by a Ratio of 2 to 1 throughout the Trading Session. Barclays Bank
accelerated H1 PAT 2014 +13.424% and trades off a Trailing PE of
12.357. Barclays is clearly seeking to carve out a more offensive
Posture under its Captain.

CIC Insurance firmed 2.22% to close at 9.20 and traded 687,900 shares
the days after releasing H1 Earnings where First Half Profit Before
Tax improved +67.24% to 154.360m,  First Half Profit after Tax rallied
+296.98% to 138.348m and First Half Earnings Per share ramped 200%
higher to 6 cents a share. CIC Insurance is +54.62% this year but
Earnings have exhibited a very strong H2 Skew. For example, First Half
 EPS which rallied 200% only represented 8.95522% of FY 2013 EPS.

Kenya Re eased 1.13% to close at 17.50 and traded 178,800 shares.
Kenya Re reported First Half Earnings yesterday where First Half Net
Revenues increased +22.094% but First Half Claims and Policyholders
benefits spiked +37.5988%. Kenya Re reported a +4.577% H1 PAT
acceleration. Kenya Re trades on a Trailing PE of 4.079 and by that
measure it trades at a steep discount to its peers.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen rallied 9.31% to close at a 3 month High of 11.15 and traded
412,600 shares. At the Finish Line, Buyers outpaced Sellers in the
Ratio of 67 Buyers for every 12 Sellers.

Athi River Cement firmed 1.85% to close at 82.50 which is a 4 week
high. ARM traded an 82.00-83.00 range and 465,600 shares. ARM on
boards its Tanga Clinker Facility H2 and this will be a Catalyst for
spread widening.

KenolKobil rallied 3.13% to close at 8.25.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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