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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 18th of August 2014
 
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Africa

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I look forward to hosting @Dennis_Makori CEO ONFON Media at #Mindspeak

#Mindspeak is held at the @InterConNairobi
http://www.twitpic.com/cm03ub

Macro Thoughts

read more




@BinaShah Girls on their way to school in Nepal. No bridge, no other way to get there. Bravest girls in the world.
Africa


“But that's why you built the towers, isn't it? Weren't the towers
built as fantasies of wealth and power that would one day become
fantasies of destruction? You build a thing like that so you can see
it come down. The provocation is clear. What other reason would there
be to go so high and then to double it, do it twice? It's a fantasy,
so why not do it twice? You are saying, Here it is, bring it down.”

read more


Don DeLillo, Falling Man
Africa


IT’S the deadliest wave in the world, and every year diehard
surfers flock to its shores.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/teahupoo-tahiti-the-worlds-heaviest-wave/story-e6frfqer-1227022429732

Located at the southwest tip of Tahiti, Teahupo’o is the subject of a
local legend, and if you think you’re saying it right, you’ve got it
all wrong.

Teahupo’o (pronounced che-au-po-o, or chopes in hip Aussie circles) is
one of the most famous and challenging surf breaks in the world. It’s
a yearly fixture on the ASP World Championship Tour — in fact, brave
surfers are about to kick off the 2014 Billabong pro event.

read more





How peaches and propaganda are helping to shape the new world order @PaulMasonNews
Law & Politics


Italy is back in recession and approaching deflation; Germany's
economy has shrunk and France stagnates. In Britain, we have a record
number of jobs but plummeting real wages. Only the US – which borrowed
massively, restructured its banks and printed money on a historic
scale – enjoys anything like a sustainable recovery, and even that's
being sustained only by the promise that quantitative easing will go
on ad infinitum.

Although its social impact has been milder than that of the 1930s, the
crisis that began in 2008 has been longer and by some measures deeper.
As a result, we have quietly entered the "exit" phase economic
historians warned about: a competitive dash for safety driven by
economic nationalism. The first moves are being made by proxy and
centre around the diplomatic conflict over Ukraine.

Capital flight from Russia is real and massive: the $150bn or so that
has left Russia this year – combined with the complete dry-up of
inward investment – will permanently alter Russia's position in the
financial system.

Russia's agricultural trade embargo with the EU is also real. Like all
disruptions to global free trade, these moves will create, almost
immediately, new patterns that will be hard to break.

For example, Greek peach farmers face ruin as their produce rots at
the roadside. The Turkish government, meanwhile, has enraged Greeks by
pledging to step up exports to Russia to fill the gap. Greek
politicians are under pressure from the leftwing opposition party
Syriza to defy the EU sanctions on Russia; in reply, they have pointed
out to voters not only that the EU holds their country's debt, but
also that, if they recognise Russia's hold on Crimea, they might as
well recognise Turkey's hold on northern Cyprus. Thus do peaches and
nectarines turn into issues involving debt mountains, military no-go
zones and historic ethnic rivalries.

These eddies of trouble, the revival of secondary disputes and the
mixture of economic policy with diplomatic grievances and popular
rhetoric all echo the atmosphere of the early 1930s.

Even more ominous is the fragmentation of the global news agenda, and
with it public opinion, into clear propaganda blocs. It is not only
Vladimir Putin's propaganda channels that spew untruths: if you read
certain magazines in the US and rely on Twitter, it is possible to
believe that the Ukrainians shot down MH17, that Barack Obama ordered
the poison gas attack on east Damascus last summer, that the west
"provoked" the conflict in Ukraine in order to boost the fracking
industry, and so on.

When trade wars start, mirrored by conspiracy wars, the next thing to
expect is the Balkanisation of the internet – and it is happening.
Censorship, shutdowns, the arrest of bloggers and tweeters: these
tactics were pioneered in Syria, exploited in Turkey and Egypt and are
being perfected in Russia.

Although it seems like a separate thing – a hangover from the cold war
or a product of an "accidental" revolution – the Ukraine dispute
cannot be kept clear of the economic fault lines produced by the
six-year crisis. These fault lines lie at the heart of the eurozone,
and between Europe and the US, and central to all of them is Germany.

It is clear that Germany has pursued a mercantilist strategy
throughout the euro project. It has become the continent's productive
powerhouse by rigging all economic relationships in its favour. When
all boats were rising, nobody noticed; now voters in Greece, Italy and
Spain not only notice but also react. They look at their own jobless
rates – 25% and rising – and at Germany's – just 5% – and see a system
stacked in favour of growth in northern Europe and depression in the
south.

They observe that this Germany, so ruthless in the imposition of EU
rules when it came to austerity, is now lax and unwilling in the
pursuit of collective sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, there is rising frustration in the US over what it sees as
Europe's weakness over Russia. In July, Russian banks allied to
Putin's clique were sealed off from issuing bonds on Wall Street, only
to issue them the next week in Frankfurt.

Since 2008, three streams of instability have dominated world affairs:
the economic crisis; social unrest among a thwarted young generation
that produced the Arab spring and the Occupy movements; and increased
diplomatic rivalry between Russia, its proxies and the west.

Since the start of 2014, these streams have begun to veer into each
other and collide. Euromaidan was a delayed echo of the social unrest
wave, driven by the country's economic failure; it collided with a
diplomatic situation that was already fractious over Syria. It has
produced, via the murder of 298 people on MH17, the first significant
use of economic sanctions between developed countries since the era of
globalisation began.

Many chroniclers of the 1930s say the decade only really took on its
doomed, chaotic character when major countries left the gold standard
(Britain first in 1931, Italy last five years later). Today, a breakup
of the world system would take a different form: the competitive
devaluation of currencies in which large amounts of debt are held by
other countries, or the closure of financial markets to certain
countries. We are still far from this – but not unimaginably far.

After the release of this week's GDP figures, the debt dynamics of
Europe – above all Italy – once again look ominous. Italy has the
eurozone's biggest debts and is the biggest loser from the arrangement
whereby Germany profits from everyone else's inefficiency. Without
recovery, not only do its debts look unsustainable; it also becomes
yet another candidate for imposed austerity and technocratic
government.

It is possible that, at some point, there will be a replay of summer
2011, in which a bond market crisis has to be averted by concerted
global action, but this time with Italy rather than Greece and Spain
needing the bailout. Such action will be all the harder in a world
where trade and financial markets have become weapons of diplomatic
war, in which anti-globalist parties of the right and left have
significantly more support, and where the global order looks much more
worn and frayed.

read more



@AlArabiya_Eng Syrian warplanes #hammer #ISIS targets in #Raqqa #Syria
Law & Politics


Britain must prepared to ally itself with Iran to combat the “shared
threat” of Sunni Islamist extremists in Iraq and Syria who want to
create “a terrorist state” that could extend to “the shores of the
Mediterranean” @David_Cameron

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/isis-extremists-a-threat-to-the-streets-of-britain-warns-david-cameron-9674015.html

Suggesting that it was now in the UK’s national interest to put aside
decades of enmity with the Shia regime in Tehran, the PM called on
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to “engage with the international
community” in combating Isis.

In an article for the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Cameron wrote that Britain
was in the midst of a “generational struggle” that would last “for the
rest of my political lifetime”.

“Already IS [Isis] controls not just thousands of minds, but thousands
of square miles of territory... It makes no secret of its expansionist
aims... And it boasts of its designs on Jordan and Lebanon, and right
up to the Turkish border. If it succeeds, we would be facing a
terrorist state on the shores of the Mediterranean and bordering a
Nato member. This is a clear danger to Europe.”

Writing inThe Independent on Sunday, General Sir Richard Shirreff,
former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said: “This unhappy
saga highlights all too graphically the collective loss of nerve in
matters of defence and security, increasingly the defining
characteristic of this government.

“The consequence has been knee-jerk reactions dictated by events,
whether last year's abortive attempt to launch Tomahawk missiles at
Syria, or last week's response to events in northern Iraq.”

28-OCT-2013 @BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The Two Husseins

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/042NSX2306.pdf

THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran’s
Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran
relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of
Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi
and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein
Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet
Muhammed’s revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of
anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably
view this as very fortuitious.

I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year
and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:

What’s in a name?


A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of
interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests
fully invested in the status quo.

read more


艾未未 Ai Weiwei ‏@aiww RT @alykhansatchu: @Aiww What's in a Name? @Hirshorn
Law & Politics


A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed
part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic
characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich,
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the
expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

read more


@Aiww Installation @Hirshhorn
Law & Politics


@ianbremmer  Kim Jong Un REALLY enjoys launching missiles.

pic.twitter.com/TDDawUGkSY

@ianbremmer  Aug 14 Geopolitics & Google Search: 2014 is the Year of Ukraine

pic.twitter.com/Bu3nlzoD2V

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A nurse and a doctor for tropical medicine wearing isolation suits demonstrate the decontamination procedure as part of the Ebola treatment capability at Station 59 in Charite hospital, Berlin.
Law & Politics


The specialised quarantine unit at Station 59 is among a handful of
facilities in Germany that are capable of handling Ebola cases. The
disease has so far claimed over 1,000 lives in western Africa in
recent weeks

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3396
Dollar Index 81.42
Japan Yen 101.28
Swiss Franc 0.9028
Pound 1.6730
Aussie 0.9320
India Rupee 60.97
South Korea Won 1016.35
Brazil Real 2.2595
Egypt Pound 7.1503
South Africa Rand 10.5850

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 81.42

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Benchmark U.S. 10-year note yields slid to as low as 2.30 percent last
week, the least since June 2013.

The Fed reduced monthly bond-purchases by $10 billion for sixth
consecutive meeting last month to $25 billion. The central bank has
kept the benchmark interest rate at a record zero to 0.25 percent
since December 2008. Futures traders see a greater than 70 percent
chance the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate to at least 0.5
percent by October next year.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10
major currencies, fell 0.1 percent to 1,018.90 as of 1:30 p.m. in
Tokyo from Aug. 15, after earlier touching 1,018.70, the lowest level
since Aug. 1. The gauge declined 0.2 percent last week, its first
weekly drop in a month.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3396

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

If hot thermometers actually exploded like they do in cartoons,
there would be a lot of mercury to clean up in California right now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/california-s-record-heat-is-like-nothing-you-ve-ever-seen-yet.html

The California heat this year is like nothing ever seen, with records
that go back to 1895. The chart below shows average year-to-date
temperatures in the state from January through July for each year. The
orange line shows the trend rising 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

Vessels anchor in the sea as storm clouds gather over the east
coast of Singapore

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2014/aug/16/photography-gaza-ebola-athletics#/?picture=444683182&index=18

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 3 month Chart INO 1299.775

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 94.83

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.V14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nutella Hogs Hazelnuts to Meet the World's Insatiable Craving for
Chocolaty Goodness

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-14/nutella-buys-hazelnut-supplier-to-protect-against-worldwide-shortage#r=rss

There are more than 50 hazelnuts per 13-ounce jar of Nutella, and with
180 million kilograms of the chocolatey spread produced each year,
that adds up to an insane number of hazelnuts. Right now, many
confectioners are scrambling to secure hazelnuts: Hail storms and
frost in March damaged the crop in Turkey, the world’s main growing
area, causing prices to climb by as much as 60 percent this year.
Nutella maker Ferrero Group has less reason for concern. It acquired
Turkish hazelnut supplier Oltan Group in July.

“Ferrero has protected itself from the supply issues to an extent by
buying Oltan Group,” said Julian Gale, deputy editor of Foodnews, in
an e-mail.

Ferrero is already the largest consumer of hazelnuts, consuming 25
percent of the world’s supply. “Oltan Group is the worldwide leading
operator in the procurement, processing and marketing of hazelnuts,”
Ferrero said in a press release. Oltan has five production facilities
exporting to the European Union and the world’s other major markets.

read more




“I wouldn’t call this a bloodbath,” Alberto Bernal, head of research at Bulltick Capital Markets, said by phone from Miami
Emerging Markets


Prices for the notes due in 2033 fell 5.84 cents on the dollar this
week to 80.17 cents, their biggest weekly drop since January 2013.

While bonds are down from the three-year high of 95.6 cents they
reached before the default, they’re still about 7 cents higher than
their average over the past five years.

Frontier Markets

read more


The Ebola Virus is non-linear and Economic Forecasting is now high beta
Africa


THE World Health Organisation said on Friday that the death toll from
the virus in West Africa had now risen to 1,145.

WHO said on its website that “staff at the [Ebola] outbreak sites see
evidence that the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly
underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak”.

That is surely a given. The World Bank has written treatises on data
gathering in sub-Saharan Africa and therefore I err on the side of a
massive undercount in the matter of Ebola.

According to Nobel Prize-winning biologist Joshua Lederberg, “The
single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on this planet is
the [Ebola] virus.”

Harmit Malik, an evolutionary geneticist, has said that “We have been
in an evolutionary arms race with viruses for at least one hundred
million years.’’

“There is genetic conflict everywhere. That’s evolution. It’s the
world’s definitive game of cat and mouse. Viruses evolve, the host
adapts, proteins change, viruses evade them. It never ends. To even
think about the many million-year processes that caused that sort of
evolution. It’s dazzling,” Malik said.

Conspiracy theorists, and there are plenty on social media, refer us
back to Fort Detrick which was the centre of US government
chemical/biological warfare research.

“In early 1952, CIA effected an agreement with the Army Chemical Corp
for the performance of certain research and development work by the
Army Chemical Corp at the laboratory facilities of Special Operations
Division, Army Biological Laboratories, Frederick, Maryland.”

African Ebola is one of the deadliest of known human viruses. It kills
by clotting the blood of its victims, shutting off the flow of
nutrients to key parts of the body and chewing through connective
tissue, so that the infected literally cough their guts out.

The Ebola epidemic re-emerged in Guinea in February and has since
spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. And as of Friday, the
death toll rose to 1,145 after WHO said 76 new deaths had been
reported in the two days to August 13. There have been 2,127 cases
reported. And it is unclear to me where the ‘Tipping Point’ will be.

Malcolm Gladwell says “The tipping point is that magic moment when an
idea, trend, or social behaviour [read Ebola virus] crosses a
threshold, tips and spreads like wildfire.”

Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics and the new
“cheek by jowl” living arrangements in so many of our cities surely
present the Ebola virus with optimal conditions.

Nigerian epidemiologist Chikwe Ihekweazu, who runs the website Nigeria
Health Watch told Reuters: “Lagos is big, it’s crowded. It would make
in many ways a perfect environment for the virus to spread.”

“In the heart of Lagos, people live on top of each other, sharing
bedrooms and toilets. In densely populated communities infection
control becomes almost impossible to do well.”

Joanne Liu, the international president of Doctors Without Borders,
said: “We are not talking weeks; we’re talking about months to get an
upper hand on the epidemic.”

Modelling the economic impact of the Ebola virus is notoriously dif-
ficult. Has the virus tipped yet? Will it? Ebola is an “unknown
known”. We know it exists but its effects remain as yet “unknown”.

Moody’s issued a note on Thursday saying it expected “critical com-
mercial and transport disruptions” to last for at least a month as a
result of the Ebola outbreak.

Kenya has said it will not allow passengers from Liberia, Guinea and
Sierra Leone into the country starting next Tuesday.

Among the signs of the regional economic impact, Ivory Coast will not
allow any ships from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia to enter its
port at Abidjan, according to a port statement.

Therefore, economic forecasting across vast swathes of sub-Saharan
Africa now carries a very high component of Beta.

read more



Mugabe to Head African Blocs in Endorsement of Election Victory
Africa


Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is set to win an endorsement of his
fellow African leaders to head two regional bodies, an affirmation of
his victory in last year’s disputed elections.

Mugabe, 90, will take over the rotating chairmanship of the 15-nation
Southern African Development Community today from Malawian leader
Peter Mutharika at the start of a two-day leaders’ summit in the
Zimbabwean resort town of Victoria Falls. He is also in line to lead
the 54-nation African Union from 2015.

Mugabe was the only southern African leader who wasn’t invited to the
U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, which was hosted earlier
this month by U.S. President Barack Obama with the intention of
boosting economic ties.

read more



President Peter Mutharika has held no mass rallies, travelled abroad just once and spoken in public only five times.
Africa


Even his own Democratic People's Party (DPP) is perplexed by the
change in style, according to a source in State House.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.8115% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

51,257.72 +183.82 +0.36%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.5850

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1503

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +39.236% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,443.81 +57.24 +0.61%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.1209% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

41,379.49 -370.92 -0.89%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.31% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,216.52 -24.37 -1.09%

Banks Vie for a Piece of Africa’s Mobile Banking Market WSJ Subscriber

http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2014/08/15/banks-vie-for-a-piece-of-africas-mobile-banking-market/

George Kabiria, who makes decorative sculptures for this city’s lush
garden homes, recently sold a small iron frog to a customer through
M-Pesa, Kenya’s most popular mobile-payments service.

Mr. Kabiria’s customer punched in a few numbers and transferred 700
Kenyan shillings, or about $8, to the iron monger. With the money in
his M-Pesa wallet, Mr. Kabiria can pay other M-Pesa users or withdraw
cash from agents at convenience stores and roadside stands across
Kenya.

Fearing theft in crime-rife Nairobi, Mr. Kabiria operates mostly
through M-Pesa, owned by Safaricom, the Kenyan subsidiary of global
telecom giant Vodafone Group VOD.LN +0.64% VOD.LN +0.64% PLC.

“I don’t like having cash in the shop,” he says.

M-Pesa, launched in 2007, handles $18 billion in transactions
annually. They come from cow herders in the country’s dusty Rift
Valley villages, pedicab drivers in the bustling port of Mombasa and
technology entrepreneurs in traffic-clogged Nairobi. Together, they
are equivalent to 43% of Kenya’s economic output.

Now, a top Kenyan bank is challenging that business. Equity Bank,
Kenya’s largest in terms of customers, wants a piece of Safaricom’s
brisk trade in charging mobile customers for financial transactions.
It also aims to draw users into traditional banking products such as
loans and savings accounts.

Earlier this year, Equity acquired a telecom license and made plans to
distribute to its customers SIM cards that would enable them to access
all their accounts without visiting a branch. The ultrathin cards are
designed to be placed on top of any SIM card already in a user’s
phone, effectively giving people one phone line linked to Equity’s
bank service and another for Safaricom’s voice and M-Pesa services.

The bank has given the cards to its employees and hopes to distribute
a million to current customers within a year.

At the heart of this push: Equity’s belief that banks are best
positioned to provide banking services. “We have a major problem with
the mobile provider also providing financial services,” says John
Staley, Equity’s chief of finance, innovation and technology. “You
can’t have a freight company controlling the tracks.”

Bob Collymore, Safaricom’s chief executive, shrugs off any threat. He
says his firm isn’t competing against Equity but for the 95% of Kenyan
transactions that are still done in cash. “The market is massive, it’s
there to be had,” Mr. Collymore says. “I don’t worry about [Equity].”

Fewer than a quarter of Africa’s 1.4 billion people have a bank
account, the World Bank says, but 70% have a mobile phone. That has
made the continent particularly fertile ground for mobile-payments
businesses.

On average, 4,361 out of 100,000 people globally were using
mobile-payments services as of June 2013, according to Groupe Speciale
Mobile Association, an international mobile-telecommunications group,
and the World Bank. In sub-Saharan African, the figure was six times
that — with nearly a quarter of the population banking on mobile
phones. In contrast, for every 100,000 Europeans and Central Asians,
just 416 used such services.

Still, Safaricom has taken steps to counter Equity’s attempt to enter
the market. Just as Equity was about to roll out its new
mobile-payments service in July, Safaricom filed a petition with the
Kenyan communications regulator, contending that Equity services
designed to coexist with Safaricom would expose M-Pesa users to
security risks, such as fraud.

Equity’s Mr. Staley called the complaint “completely
unfounded…obviously a delay tactic.”

Before the legal move, the Kenyan bank had been advertising in English
and Swahili inviting Equity customers to punch *247# into a phone
carrying a new Equity SIM card to activate Hapo Hapo, the Equity
mobile-banking account. Safaricom’s petition has forced equity to
suspend marketing and distribution for its new mobile-payments
service.

A spokeswoman for the regulator declined to say when a decision would
be reached.

“Across Africa we continue to make progress in opening new plants to
serve the continent’s growing need for cement and later this year we
will open our plants in Zambia, Ethiopia, Cameroon and Sierra Leone.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/dangote-cement-profit-declines-as-gas-supply-issues-boost-costs.html

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 88.154
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +13.713% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

155.39 +0.89 +0.58%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.354% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,042.90 +23.62 +0.47%

The benchmark NSE-20 share index rose 0.5 percent to finish at
5,042.90 points, its highest level since Jan. 28.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/kenya-markets-idINL6N0QL2H820140815

Aly-Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst, said stocks have
risen steadily this month as investors moved their money from bonds
into the stock market, expecting government borrowing to dwindle and
yields decline.

President Uhuru Kenyatta earlier this month said domestic borrowing
would almost halve this fiscal year after Kenya issued its debut $2
billion Eurobond. The yield on benchmark 91-day Treasury bills has
also fallen to 8.2 percent from 11.4 percent at the end of June.

"We've had a market that's been driven higher by foreign investors,
who have been the catalyst, but all of a sudden you now have local
investors who have to get in," Satchu said.

Shares in KenGen, the country's main electricity producer, jumped 9.3
percent to a three-month high on Friday. The company's shares have
risen about a quarter this month.

Satchu said investors who were rattled by the company's escalating
borrowing needs this year no longer worry that it will struggle to
raise the capital to finance new plants.

"Recent events, including the Eurobond, are indicating that what
looked like enormous supersize meal the market would not be able to
digest suddenly looks digestible," he said.

read more




B.O.C Kenya Ltd reports First Half Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           146.00
Total Shares Issued:          19525446.00
Market Capitalization:        2,850,715,116
EPS:            10.38
PE:               14.0655

First Half through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

First Half Revenue 674.982m versus 629.176m +7.3%
First Half Profit Before Tax 127.391m versus 151.872m -16.1194%
First Half Profit After Tax 85.621m versus 101.255m -15.44%
First Half Earnings Per Share 4.39 versus 5.19 -15.414%
First Half Dividend 2.20 versus 2.60 -15.384%
Cash at the End of the Period 719.882m

Company Commentary


''However, profits before Tax were down 16% due to increased
electricity costs and a revision of the calculation methodology for
stock obsolescence allowances.

Conclusions


In line.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Kenya Airways to suspend flights to Freetown, Monrovia due to Ebola
Kenyan Economy


Kenya will not allow passengers from Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone
into the country starting next Tuesday, the private Citizen Television
said on its website, quoting the Minister of Health James Macharia.

Chief Executive Titus Naikuni said on Thursday all its West African
destinations account for less than a quarter of annual revenue.

Its flights to Nigeria were not affected by the suspension.

Korean Airlines suspended its flights to Nairobi last week citing the
risk of Ebola.

The World Health Organization said on Friday that the death toll from
the virus in West Africa had now risen to 1,145.

read more





Reflections on #Westgate, #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow
Kenyan Economy


That's the Backgrounder. Now lets jump to #Westgate. As I scanned the
Al-Shabaab Tweets I recalled this one that @GGoodwin retweeted

“Westgate: 14hr standoff relayed in 1400 rounds of bullets & 140
characters of vengeance & still ongoing. Gd morning Kenya!”

Another read ''Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall,
unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.''

I kept thinking to myself 'sangfroid' is such an unusual word. It
means coolness of mind; calmness; composure a kind of cold bloodedness
under Pressure. I kept thinking to myself that Sangfroid is a Quality
highly prized in the Military. Thats a word the Daughter of a Military
Man might know. Nishet tells me, I think this is a Woman. And I said
Thats exactly it. Another Tweet says ''I am Titanium.'' referencing a
David Guetta Song, whose lyrics read and are practically a Taunt

read more


David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia (Official Video)
Kenyan Economy


The Lyrics

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/davidguetta/titanium.html

[Sia:]
You shouted out
But I can't hear a word you say
I'm talking loud not saying much
I'm criticized but all your bullets ricochet
You shoot me down, but I get up

[Chorus:]
I'm bulletproof, nothing to lose
Fire away, fire away
Ricochet, you take your aim
Fire away, fire away
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium

[Sia:]
Cut me down
But it's you who'll have further to fall
Ghost town and haunted love
Raise your voice, sticks and stones may break my bones
I'm talking loud not saying much

#Westgate from @CNBCAfrica Bureau #Nairobi on the 19th Floor

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Shilling was last trading at 88.258 and this is a key Area of
Chart Support for the Shilling.
Crude Oil prices have been on a 4 week Losing Streak and will give
some respite.
The NSE20 which crossed the 5,000 mark for the first time since 29th
January on August 5 and has closed above that key Chart level every
session thereafter eased 2.34 points to close at 5040.56.
The NSE20 is at 7 month Highs.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.32 points to close at 155.71.
Equity Turnover clocked 642.226m with Safaricom taking 53.348% of that volume.
BAT +22.16% and Crown Paints +41.333% in 2014 both posted record closing Highs.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi rallied 5.49% to close at 173.00 and just a whisker away from
an All Time Closing High. Kakuzi is +82.10% Year To Date.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom was the most actively traded share and firmed 0.39% to close
at 12.75 and traded 26.877m shares worth 342.637m and some 53.348% of
the volume traded at the Securities Exchange. Safaricom has rallied
17.511% year to date and will test an All Time High of 13.15 set in
April this year. The Dividend Yield of 3.68% underpins the share price
in what is a reducing rate environment.

Kenya Airways got caught up in the Ebola Virus crossfire and retreated
4.854% to close at 9.80 and traded 105,600 shares. 61 deals today
confirm this was Retail small lot selling. West Africa is an important
market but the price has reached an egregious level.

Raphael Kuuchi, IATA's vice president for Africa, told the body's
Africa Aviation Day conference in Johannesburg "They have been very
clear that travel and trade bans are unnecessary"



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank firmed 0.55% to close at 45.75 and traded 1.576m shares
worth 72.367m. Equity Bank has rallied a blistering +48.78% in 2014
and the Catalyst for this Rally was the calculation that the MVNO Play
was a Agency of Disruption for Safaricom's M-Pesa. The Frontier
Markets Blog of the Wall Street Journal carried some interesting
quotes from Equity Bank and Safaricom, in this regard.

"We have a major problem with the mobile provider also providing
financial services," says John Staley, Equity's chief of finance,
innovation and technology. "You can't have a freight company
controlling the tracks."

Bob Collymore, Safaricom's chief executive, shrugs off any threat. He
says his firm isn't competing against Equity but for the 95% of Kenyan
transactions that are still done in cash. "The market is massive, it's
there to be had," Mr. Collymore says. "I don't worry about [Equity]."


Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 56.50 but was trading at
57.50 +1.77% session highs at the closing bell. Kenya Commercial Bank
traded 530,700 shares and the price is underpinned with the CEO Joshua
Oigara on an international Roadshow.

Jubilee Insurance rallied 4.72% to close at 399.00 and traded 1,700 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


BAT rallied +4.415% to close at a Fresh All Time High of 733.00. BAT
traded shares at an All Time High Price Print of 750.00 +6.84% during
the session. BAT traded 25,600 shares. BAT has rallied +22.16% this
year excluding Dividends. BAT pays approximately 99.6% of its Earnings
Per Share out as Dividend and the dividend increases in attraction in
a falling rate environment.

KenGen rallied a further +3.39% to close at a more than 3 month High
of 11.50. KenGen traded 348,500 shares and has rallied 12.745% over
the last 2 Trading sessions in what is a noteworthy move. I explained
my View about the Price Spike to Reuters;

"Recent events, including the Eurobond, are indicating that what
looked like enormous supersize meal the market would not be able to
digest suddenly looks digestible."

I was referencing KenGen's widely telegraphed Cash Call.

EABL eased 0.3378% to close at 295.00 and traded 240,900 shares worth
71.299m. EABL was, however,  being low ticked at 285.00 -3.72% at the
Finale. EABL has retreated 5.448% and off a 2014 closing High since
releasing its Full Year Earnings. EABL reported a +3.776% Full Year
Net Revenue expansion to 61.292176b and given the Senator Headwinds, I
for one, view this retracement as a Buying Opportunity because those
results were considerably better than consensus estimates.

BOC Gases did not trade after releasing  First Half Earnings [which
were largely in line] on Friday. BOC reported a First Half Revenue
expansion of +7.3% to 674.982m, a -16.1194% decline in First Half
Profit before Tax and reduced the Dividend by 15.384%. BOC cited
Electricity Prices re Margin compression. BOC Gases is +16.8% year to
date.

Home Africa rallied 3.488% to close at 4.45 and was trading at 4.60
+6.98% session highs at the Finish line. Home Africa traded 937,700
shares and has rallied +34.84% since the start of the month but
admittedly off a Post Listing closing Low.

Crown Paints rallied 6.00% to close at 106.00 and has closed at a
Fresh All Time Closing High. Crown Paints is +41.333% Year To date and
trades on a trailing PE of 11.765.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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