home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 25th of August 2014

Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

read more

“The markets are never wrong,” President @PaulKagame said

THE markets are never wrong,” President @PaulKagame said in an
interview in Washington on August 5 at the #USAfricaSummit.

There was no sharper signal delivered in Washington than those five
words that President Kagame uttered.

Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no easy thing.

In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic world. When I
plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

The Ebola Virus continues to gain velocity and the World Health
Organisation in their latest release dated August 22 announced that
the ‘’magnitude of the Ebola out- break....has been underestimated’’
and of ‘’the existence of an invisible caseload of patients who are
not being detected by the surveillance system.’’ WHO spoke of ‘’the
existence of numerous “shadow-zones.’’

Nato has thrown out a whole new characterisation of warfare called
‘ambiguous’ warfare. Eastern Ukraine has become a ‘shadow- zone.’

And then of course, the behead- ing of James Foley by a jihadist with
a British accent went viral. There was a spookiness about the British
accent which spoke to centuries of received history. IS and the likes
of Al-Shabaab have proven accomplished and frightening and frightful
exponents of the 21st century digital ecosystem. And what is so
fascinating is that their media efforts all point West. The richest
hunting ground for these new 21st century serial killers/terrorists is
among the disaffected in the Western World. It is clear that the
‘surveillance’ system was switched off because then these ne’er- do
-wells were doing the dirty work of toppling Muammar and trying to
topple Bashar. The indigenes are apparently bit part players.

Last week we learnt from the pentagon that the US govern- ment filed a
formal complaint with China about the near miss between a Chinese J-11
fighter jet and a Navy Poseidon P-8 patrol aircraft 135 miles east of
Hainan Island. Kirby said the Chinese fighter jet brought one of its
wingtips within 20 feet of the Poseidon, performed a ‘barrel roll’ at
close range and also flashed past the nose of the US aircraft at a
90-degree angle with its under- side exposed, apparently “to make a
point of showing its weapons.”

Now given this new level of arrhythmia, friction,and a kind of
unsettling ambiguity, how are we to navigate the Financial Markets.

You see in the old days, these conditions would have created a flight
into the dollar. And interestingly the dollar has been punching
higher. If things tip big, the dollar might soar.

read more

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

I look forward to hosting @Dennis_Makori CEO ONFON Media at #Mindspeak
on the 30th of August

read more

#Mindspeak 2014 RICH TV

In 2014, #Mindspeak has hosted Christine @Lagarde @IMFNews, Dr. Titus
Naikuni @KenyaAirways, Charles Ireland EABL @TuskerLager, EAC SG Dr.
@rsezibera, Munir Ahmed National Bank Joshua Oigara @KCBGroup.

read more

Good African Coffee Ltd

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Dreams in a time of war Ngugi wa Thiong’o

Years later when I read T. S. Eliot’s line that April was the
cruellest month, I would recall what happened to me one April day in
1954, in chilly Limuru, the prime estate of what, in 1902, another
Eliot, Sir Charles Eliot, then governor of colonial Kenya, had set
aside as White Highlands. The day came back to me, the now of it,

‘He was caught red-handed,’ some were saying.

‘Imagine, bullets in his hands. In broad daylight.’

Everybody, even we children, knew that for an African to be caught
with bullets or empty shells was treason; he would be dubbed a
terrorist, and his hanging by the rope was the only outcome.

‘We could hear gunfire,’ some were saying.

‘I saw them shoot at him with my own eyes.’

‘But he didn’t die!’

‘Die? Hmm! Bullets flew at those who were shooting.’

‘No, he flew into the sky and disappeared in the clouds.’

read more

Whisper it in Washington but Putin may have been right about Syria all along
Law & Politics

 “Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed
conflict between government and opposition in a multi-religious
country,” he wrote, suggesting that the nominally secular Assad
regime, despite its misdeeds, was a stabilising force preferable to
what could possibly replace it.

Putin decried the growing Islamist cadres in the Syrian rebels’ ranks:
“Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of
militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our
deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience
acquired in Syria?”

read more

An obvious first step – close the jihadis' highway
Law & Politics

The point at which jihadis should be best identified, intercepted and
stopped is not within Britain or even Europe, but as they cross from
Turkey into Syria. The Turks have a 560-mile border with Syria and it
is across this that jihadis must travel if they are to reach their
destination, primarily but not exclusively the Islamic State of Iraq
and the Levant (Isis), to offer their services. Those who head for
Iraq must also take what Turkish journalists call "the Jihadist
Highway", a network of roads across Turkey and Syria.

The Turkish government protests that it gets 34 million tourists a
year and cannot arrest everybody with a beard

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3191 The dollar rose to $1.3184, the strongest since Sept. 9.
Dollar Index 82.56
Japan Yen 104.13 The dollar advanced for a sixth day against the yen
Swiss Franc 0.9168
Pound 1.6568
Aussie 0.9315
India Rupee 60.46
South Korea Won 1020.34
Brazil Real 2.2765
Egypt Pound 7.1512
South Africa Rand 10.6994

The dollar has gained 1.5 percent in the past month, the best
performer after Norway’s krone among 10 developed-nation currencies
tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro fell 0.4
percent and the yen declined 1.1 percent.

Dollar Index 1 Month Chart INO 82.56 [Dollar has posted six
consecutive weekly gains]


Euro versus the Dollar 1 Month Chart 1.3191


read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 month Chart INO 1277.75


Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 93.68


WTI for October delivery was 4 cents lower at $93.61 a barrel in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at a
discount of $8.54 to Brent, compared with a close of $8.64 on Aug. 22.

read more

According to the Investment Grade Scotch index, published by Whisky Highland in Tain, Scotland, the top 100 single malts delivered an average return of 440 percent from the start of 2008 till the end of July this year.

That compares with a 31 percent gain in S&P 500 stocks index and a
sobering 2 percent drop in the Liv-ex 100 Benchmark Fine Wine Index.

The holy grail of Japanese whiskies is the Karuizawa 1960. Released in
2013, only 41 bottles were produced after 52 years of aging in the
cask, and each cost about 12,500 pounds. It has an aroma of scented
wood, dark chocolate, orange peel, citrus and honey, and tastes of
pepper, malt, orange marmalade and liquorice, according to Chan, who
tried it at an exclusive 12-person sampling at the Auld Alliance
whisky bar in Singapore.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more

Mozambique's Frelimo government and the Renamo main opposition party have signed a formal end to hostilities, sealing a peace pact ahead of a presidential election scheduled for Oct 15, negotiators from both sides said.

"The declaration of the cessation of military hostilities which we've
just signed is made in the spirit of good faith and represents the
will of all of Mozambique's people to establish peace and harmony in
our country," said Renamo's negotiator Saimone Macuiane, who initialed
the document with the government representative, Agriculture Minister
Jose Pacheco.

The accord, which is expected to be ratified by Dhlakama and Guebuza
in a public ceremony in coming days, foresees the demobilisation of
Renamo's fighters and their integration into the national army and
police, a process that will be overseen by foreign military observers.

It will also allow Dhlakama to leave his bush base in central Sofala
province and begin campaigning for the Oct. 15 elections. The
constitution bars Guebuza from running for a third term and former
Defence Minister Filipe Nyusi will run as the Frelimo candidate.

read more

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.681% 2014

51,197.81 -0.65 0.00%

Dollar versus Rand 1 Month Chart INO 10.6991


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1510


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +39.899% 2014 [Multi Year Highs]


9,488.71 -6.59 -0.07%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.568% 2014


41,564.21 -203.14 -0.49%

Nigeria’s population is likely to overtake America’s by 2045,
according to projections by the United Nations


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.0769% 2014


2,212.28 +1.02 +0.05%

The Bank of Ghana said the yield on its 91-day bill rose to a fresh
four-year high of 25.0241 percent at Friday's auction, from 24.9903
percent at the last sale.


The Bank said it accepted all 705.29 million cedis ($189.6 million)
worth of bids tendered for the 91-day paper.

The World Health Organization has said the speed and extent of the
Ebola outbreak in West Africa is "unprecedented".


The WHO's Dr Keiji Fukuda expressed concern over so-called "shadow
zones", areas which cannot be reached and where patients are not being

Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics #Ebola


Why the Ebola outbreak has been underestimated WHO


The magnitude of the Ebola outbreak, especially in Liberia and Sierra
Leone, has been underestimated for a number of reasons.

Many families hide infected loved ones in their homes. As Ebola has no
cure, some believe infected loved ones will be more comfortable dying
at home.

Others deny that a patient has Ebola and believe that care in an
isolation ward – viewed as an incubator of the disease – will lead to
infection and certain death. Most fear the stigma and social rejection
that come to patients and families when a diagnosis of Ebola is

These are fast-moving outbreaks, creating challenges for the many
international partners providing support. Quantities of staff,
supplies, and equipment, including personal protective equipment,
cannot keep up with the need. Hospital and diagnostic capacities have
been overwhelmed.

Many treatment centres and general clinics have closed. Fear keeps
patients out and causes medical staff to flee.

In rural villages, corpses are buried without notifying health
officials and with no investigation of the cause of death. In some
instances, epidemiologists have travelled to villages and counted the
number of fresh graves as a crude indicator of suspected cases.

In parts of Liberia, a phenomenon is occurring that has never before
been seen in an Ebola outbreak. As soon as a new treatment facility is
opened, it is immediately filled with patients, many of whom were not
previously identified. This phenomenon strongly suggests the existence
of an invisible caseload of patients who are not being detected by the
surveillance system.

For example in Monrovia, Liberia’s capital, an Ebola treatment centre
with 20 beds, which opened last week, was immediately overwhelmed with
more than 70 patients.

An additional problem is the existence of numerous “shadow-zones”.
These are villages with rumours of cases and deaths, with a strong
suspicion of Ebola as the cause, that cannot be investigated because
of community resistance or lack of adequate staff and vehicles.

In some areas, most notably Monrovia, virtually all health services
have shut down. This lack of access to any form of health care
contributed to the mobbing incident on Saturday at an Ebola holding
facility in the West Point township, Liberia’s most disease-prone

Rumours spread that the holding facility, hastily set up by local
authorities in an abandoned schoolhouse, was actually a clinic for
general health care. People from other communities brought their
ailing family members there, where they were housed together with
suspected Ebola patients.

The presence of patients from these other communities was resented by
the West Point community, and this resentment contributed to the riot
and subsequent looting, in which potentially contaminated materials
were carried into these communities.

WHO epidemiologists in Sierra Leone and Liberia are working with other
agencies, including Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders)
and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to produce more
realistic estimates and thus communicate the true magnitude of needs.

I err on the side of a massive undercount in the matter of Ebola.


The human species has existed in something like our present form for
approximately 200,000 years.


“Such a long run should itself give us confidence that our species
will continue to survive, at least insofar as the microbial world is
concerned. Yet such optimism,” wrote the Ehrlich prize-winning former
chair of zoology at the University College of London, “might easily
transmute into a tune whistled whilst passing a graveyard.”3154

In Democratic Republic of Congo, Health Minister Felix Kabange Numbi
said an Ebola outbreak had been confirmed in the remote northern
Equateur province -


There have been six outbreaks of Ebola in Democratic Republic of Congo
since the disease was discovered there in 1976, with a total of more
than 760 deaths.

In Democratic Republic of Congo, Health Minister Felix Kabange Numbi
said an Ebola outbreak had been confirmed in the remote northern
Equateur province - 1,200 km (750 miles) from the capital Kinshasa -
but it was a different strain of the virus from the West African one.

There have been six outbreaks of Ebola in Democratic Republic of Congo
since the disease was discovered there in 1976, with a total of more
than 760 deaths.

read more

Standard Group reports H1 PBT 2014 -7.317% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           32.00
Total Shares Issued:          81481478.00
Market Capitalization:        2,607,407,296
EPS:             2.41
PE:                 13.278

First Half through 30th June 2014 versus through June 2013

First Half 2014 Revenue 2.370592b versus 2.335509b +1.5%
First Half Total Operating Costs [2.105973b] versus [2.051657b]
First Half Profit before Taxation 205.139m versus 221.335m -7.317%
First Half Earnings Per Share 2.68 versus 2.92
No Interim Dividend

Company Commentary

Print advertising business grew by 12% over the same period last year
Television broadcasting segment declined marginally to 380m versus 389m
Rado Business recorded 50% growth
Digital Revenue expanded +82%

''Group profitability stood at 205m versus 223m due to provision for
delinquent debt in the magazine distribution business.''


Radio and Digital expanding fastest.

Kenya Port Traffic Up 5% as Container Unit Ahead of Schedule


Kenya’s Mombasa port may handle 5 percent more cargo this year and
construction of a second container terminal at East Africa’s busiest
seaport is running ahead of schedule, according to the state-run
harbor authority.

Throughput may climb to 23.5 million metric tons in 2014 from 22.3
million tons last year as a result of “an improvement of economic
performance,” Managing Director of Kenya Ports Authority Gichiri Ndua
said in the capital, Nairobi, on Aug. 20. Tonnage rose 13 percent to
11.9 million tons in the six months through June from a year earlier,
Ndua said. The port also handles trade for landlocked Uganda, Rwanda,
South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The first phase of building the container terminal to handle 450,000
twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, a year is two-thirds complete
and the facility will probably be ready by the middle of next year,
ahead of the March 2016 goal, he said.

Kenya’s port is facing competition for customers from neighboring
Tanzania, to the south, where the government is investing to upgrade
the main Dar es Salaam facility and building a new port north of the
commercial hub in Bagamoyo.

It takes 3.2 days to 3.5 days for shipments to pass through Kenya’s
port, down from 18 days last year, after an reorganization of the
systems and management, President Uhuru Kenyatta said in June. Kenya
is building another international port in Lamu, north of Mombasa near
the border of Somalia.

The second container terminal being developed in Mombasa will be
expanded to handle 1.2 million TEUs. The existing container facility
processed 894,000 TEUs last year, from 903,000 in 2012, amid
uncertainty as the country held its first national elections since
2007, when violence after the polls left more than 1,100 people dead
and displaced another 350,000.

The port city is facing increased security threats, with the U.K.
government closing its consular office there this year. Britain, the
U.S. and other states are advising travelers against non-essential
visits to the city over “terrorism” threats. The city, also a tourist
hub, is one of the places in Kenya that has suffered gun and grenade
attacks in recent months, which the government has blamed on
al-Qaeda-linked militant group, al-Shabaab, and local political

Imports handled by the Mombasa port increased 12 percent to 10 million
tons in the first half of this year, exports climbed 14 percent to 1.7
million tons and transshipments, or cargo that changes vessels at the
port, rose to 106,000 tons from 72,000 tons. The increase follows the
opening of a 19th docking station last year and the completion of
dredging that allows the terminal to handle larger vessels, according
to Ndua.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Kenya’s gross domestic
product will increase 6.3 percent this year and next.

Export-Import Bank of China will help finance construction of a
600-kilometer (373-mile) rail line joining Mombasa and Nairobi that
will begin in October and be completed in 42 months. The link will be
extended to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan.

Currently, more than 90 percent of cargo is ferried by road from
Mombasa because transporting goods on an existing single-track railway
built by the former colonial power Britain in the 19th century can be
slow and inefficient.

read more

Safaricom’s M-Pesa agents earned total commissions of Sh10.6 billion in the year to March 2014, equivalent to nearly half (40 per cent) of the mobile money platform’s revenue.
Kenyan Economy

The agents’ take-home grew by a quarter from Sh8.5 billion in 2013
driven by an increase in M-Pesa subscribers and a surge in the average
number of transactions per customer.

Safaricom spends Sh40 out of every Sh100 the telco earns from M-Pesa
to compensate mobile money agents —offering a peek into the sales
commission model for the mobile money transfer service.

Safaricom generated Sh26.5 billion in revenue from the M-Pesa service
last year — representing nearly a fifth of total turnover.

@Safaricomltd share price data here


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           12.75
Total Shares Issued:          40044601000.00
Market Capitalization:        510,568,662,750
EPS:             0.57
PE:                 22.368

First Half Earnings for the Period ended 30 September 2013

FY Revenue 144.67b versus 124.29b +16.4%

FY M-Pesa Revenue 26.56b versus 21.84b +21.61%
 M-PESA revenue increased by 22% to Kshs 26.6bn.
 15% increase in 30 day active M-PESA customers to 12.2m – 56% of our
total customer base.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 88.36


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +14.474% 2014


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.0706% 2014 [Above 5,000 every session
since 5th August]


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


read more

N.S.E Today

The Shilling was trading last at 88.653 which is a 2014 Low and has
now broken down and through a Key area of chart support for the
Clearly Hard Currency Tourism receipts have slumped.
However, The more than 10% Retreat in the Price of Oil over the last 4
weeks is going to significantly taper the $ spend at the next round of
Oil buying and give some respite to the Shilling.
Volumes thinned out and clocked 324.862m.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.34 points to close at 156.77 and is
+14.723% in 2014.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 5.63 points to close at 5033.69 and has
closed above 5,000 every day since August 5th.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Eaagads traded 2,000 shares all at 33.75 +7.14%. Eaagads is the only
Coffee Pure Play at the Securities Exchange and is +42.105% in 2014.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Standard Group released First Half Earnings after the market closed
Friday, where Revenue expanded +1.5% to 2.370592b and First Half
Profit before Tax eased -7.317% and in the accompanying commentary the
Company cited a ''provision for delinquent debt in the magazine
distribution business.'' as being responsible for that Profit Before
Tax slowdown. We also learnt that Television Broadcasting was behind
marginally, Print grew +12%, Radio accelerated +50% and Digital +82%.
Standard Group was lightly traded [shares are tightly held] and closed
unchanged at 32.00. Standard Group trades on a Trailing P/E Ratio of
13.278 and has rallied 23.076% this year.

Kenya Airways rebounded +1.621% to close at 9.40 and was trading at
session highs of 9.60 +3.78% at the Finale. Kenya Airways had
encountered Knee Jerk 'Ebola'' Selling last week and has further to

Safaricom closed unchanged at 12.75 and traded 2.583m shares. Thinning
volume action is signalling Sellers are nearing exhaustion and a
higher price point is therefore expected.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

NIC Bank surged +7.482% to close at 79.00 and traded 309,200 shares
worth 24.557m. NIC Bank was trading at 80.50 +9.52% and the Daily
Limit for most of the session. NIC Bank has rallied +38.596% over the
last 4 weeks. NIC Bank is undertaking a Medium Term Note Program in
the amount of  8b shillings of which 3b is currently live at a Yield
of 12.5% and a yield Pick up of more than 100 basis points over the
equivalent Maturity Government paper, will be oversubscribed.

Equity Bank traded 2nd at the Exchange today and firmed 0.55% to close
at 46.00 and traded 1.025m shares worth 47.192m.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 57.00 and traded 493,800
shares with 2 Buyers for every one Seller at the Finish Line.
Standard Chartered firmed 0.63% to close at 319.00 a 4 month High.
Standard Chartered accelerated First Half 2014 Profit after Tax
+34.1769% to 6.060905b.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenolKobil was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and closed unchanged at 8.10 and traded 9.134m shares worth
74.065m. KenolKobil has traded 77.7182m shares and 5.28% of its issued
shares over three trading sessions and since releasing First Half
Earnings where First Half Turnover was slashed 33.846% to 43.181308b
and First Half Profit before Income Tax surged +299.416% to 795.182m
from 199.086m previously. 8.00 is probably a Floor for the share price
post the First Half Earnings Release.

.@KenolKobil share price data and H1 2014 Earnings here 

Crown Berger traded 100 shares at 107.00 +7.00% and has therefore set
a Fresh All Time Closing High. Crown Berger is +42.666% in 2014 and a
Part of the Small Cap Outperformance at the Securities Exchange seen
in 2014.

Home Africa surged a further +5.825% to close at 5.45 and was locked
at 5.50 +6.8% for most of the session. Home Africa traded 1.511m
shares and has rallied 65.15% since the beginning of August [when it
closed at a Post Listing Low] in what has been a parabolic rally.

Home Africa share price data 


ARM Cement firmed 2.38% to close at a 7 week high of 86.00 and traded
63,200 shares and buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 4 versus 1 at
the Finish Line.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
Login / Register

Forgot your password? Register Now
August 2014

In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.