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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

THE markets are never wrong,” President @PaulKagame said in an
interview in Washington on August 5 at the #USAfricaSummit.

There was no sharper signal delivered in Washington than those five
words that President Kagame uttered.

Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no easy thing.

In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic world. When I
plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up this;

I look forward to hosting @Dennis_Makori CEO ONFON Media at #Mindspeak
on the 30th of August

In 2014, #Mindspeak has hosted Christine @Lagarde @IMFNews, Dr. Titus
Naikuni @KenyaAirways, Charles Ireland EABL @TuskerLager, EAC SG Dr.
@rsezibera, Munir Ahmed National Bank Joshua Oigara @KCBGroup.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shakes hands with Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko
http://media.komonews.com/images/140826_ukraine_putin_660.jpg

Taiwan Fighters Chase China Jets a Week After U.S. Incident
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/taiwan-says-chinese-military-aircraft-entered-island-s-airspace.html

Taiwan sent fighter jets to tail two Chinese military planes that
entered the island’s air space, a week after a close encounter between
a U.S. and Chinese jet.

“We responded immediately, asking them to leave,” Taiwan defense
minister Yen Ming said yesterday in Taipei. Fighter jets were
dispatched to warn the Chinese surveillance aircraft, each of which
entered Taiwan airspace twice yesterday, to leave, David Lo, spokesman
for the Ministry of National Defense, said by phone today.

Last week we learnt from the pentagon that the US filed a formal
complaint with China about the near miss between a Chinese J-11
fighter jet and a Navy Poseidon P-8 patrol aircraft 135 miles east of
Hainan Island.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2508.pdf

Now given this new level of arrhythmia, friction,and a kind of
unsettling ambiguity, how are we to navigate the Financial Markets

You see in the old days, these conditions would have created a flight
into the dollar. And interest- ingly the dollar has been punching
higher. If things tip big, the dollar might soar.

Conclusions

In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic world. When I
plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

The US probably feels it holds a decisive hard power advantage at this
moment and given that the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that
decisive advantage leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has
alogic and momentum of its own. Therefore, I see the US being
increasingly determined to press its advantage.

With its reign of terror over a large population and ability to
self-finance on a staggering scale, the extremist group that beheaded
American journalist James Foley resembles the Taliban with oil wells.

The Islamic State, which now controls an area of Iraq and Syria larger
than the U.K., may be raising more than $2 million a day in revenue
from oil sales, extortion, taxes and smuggling, according to U.S.
intelligence officials and anti-terrorism finance experts.

“The Islamic State is probably the wealthiest terrorist group we’ve
ever known,” said Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury terrorism and
financial intelligence official who now is director of the
counterterrorism and intelligence program at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy. “They’re not as integrated with the
international financial system, and therefore not as vulnerable” to
sanctions, anti-money laundering laws and banking regulations.

 In contrast, the late al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was from a
wealthy family and enjoyed a network of foreign patrons, and his
funding sources were squeezed by financial intelligence officers. The
Islamic State “makes their money primarily -- if not entirely --
locally,” said Patrick Johnston, a counterterrorism specialist at the
Santa Monica, California-based Rand Corp.’s Pittsburgh office and
co-author of a forthcoming analysis of declassified documents on the
Islamic State’s finances.

The revenue streams available to the Islamic State through its control
of a vast oil-rich territory and access to local taxes dwarfs the
income of other groups.

With its control of seven oil fields and two refineries in northern
Iraq, and six out of 10 oil fields in eastern Syria, the terror group
is selling crude at between $25 and $60 a barrel, Luay al-Khatteeb, a
visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center in Qatar,
said in a telephone interview. That reflects a discount from world
market prices due to the risk faced by middlemen smuggling and
brokering the oil. By comparison, Brent crude for October settlement
fell 1 cent today to $102.28 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures
Europe exchange.

Based on al-Khatteeb’s interviews with contacts in Iraq, the extremist
group controls Iraqi fields with a production capacity of 80,000
barrels a day and now is extracting about half that amount. The
Islamic State, he said, is likely earning some $2 million a day from
crude sales, paid in cash or bartered goods as the oil crosses into
the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Jordan.

Still, Brian Fishman, a research fellow with the Washington-based New
America Foundation, a policy research organization, and many U.S.
intelligence analysts, are skeptical of the oft-quoted figure of $2
billion controlled by the Islamic State.

Similarly, initial estimates immediately after the Sept. 11, 2001
attacks putting al-Qaeda’s wealth in the hundreds of millions of
dollars greatly exaggerated the amount of money bin Laden had at his
disposal, according to later reports by the National Commission on
Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, also known as the 9/11
Commission. The CIA estimates that it cost al-Qaeda about $30 million
per year to sustain its activities before 9/11, an amount raised
almost entirely through donations, according to a commission staff
report.

The 9/11 attacks cost only $1 million, so even if the Islamic State
has a fraction of the purported $2 billion -- and if it can continue
to earn $1 million to $2 million a day from black market oil sales --
that’s still a lot of money.

The Quran says that the jinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching
fire",[1] but are also physical in nature, being able to interfere
physically with people and objects and likewise be acted upon.

They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to
jinn, as they can possess them. Jinn have the power to travel large
distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas,
mountains, seas, trees, and the air, in their own communities. Like
humans, jinn will also be judged on the Day of Judgment and will be
sent to Paradise or Hell according to their deeds.[10]

The father of the British-born jihadist named in some reports as the
killer of an American journalist last week is currently behind bars in
a high security jail in Manhattan awaiting trial on charges arising
from the East Africa US embassy bombings in 1998 that killed 224
people.

The reports that the man seen on an Isis video clip beheading the
journalist, James Foley, almost one week ago was, in fact, a
23-year-old Londoner named Abdel-Majed Abdel Bary threatens to add
unwelcome new complication to the upcoming US terror trial slated to
open in Manhattan on 3 November.

Ordered by Osama bin Laden, the 1998 attacks struck at the US
embassies of both Kenya and Tanzania.

The father, Adel Abdel Bary, 54, was extradited to the US from Britain
in 2012 alongside the former London imam Abu Hamza al-Masri, who was
convicted at a separate New York trial earlier this year. He faces
multiple charges of murder and has two co-defendants, Abu Anas
al-Libi, who was snatched from the streets of Tripoli by US special
forces last year and another man also extradited from Britain,  Khalid
al-Fawwaz.

The criminal complaints say that Mr Bary’s fingerprints had been found
at a location from where a fax message was sent to the US authorities
claiming responsibility for the embassy bombings.

“James Foley was first arrested by the Free Syrian Army and he was
sold to ISIS [an earlier name for the IS]. You can check with the
UN…James Foley was killed a year ago, not now, they only released the
pictures now, but he was killed a year ago. We have definite
information, the UN has the information,” said Shaaban.

Bouthaina Shaaban, advisor to Syrian President Bashar Assad
http://bit.ly/1viVcXO

 The United States has begun reconnaissance flights over Syria and is
sharing intelligence about jihadist deployments with Damascus through
Iraqi and Russian channels, sources told AFP on Tuesday.

"The cooperation has already begun and the United States is giving
Damascus information via Baghdad and Moscow," one source close to the
issue said on condition of anonymity.

CBS News, August 18, 2011:

President Barack Obama officially demanded that Syrian President
Bashar Assad resign for the sake of his own people, saying he was no
longer fit to lead after “imprisoning, torturing, and slaughtering his
own people” during a crackdown on pro-reform protesters.

New York Times, October 24, 2012:

Most of the arms shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to
supply Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad
are going to hard-line Islamic jihadists, and not the more secular
opposition groups that the West wants to bolster, according to
American officials and Middle Eastern diplomats.

Barack Obama, August 31, 2013:

Now, after careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States
should take military action against Syrian regime targets. . . . [W]e
are the United States of America, and we cannot and must not turn a
blind eye to what happened in Damascus.

New York Times, today:

President Obama has authorized surveillance flights over Syria, a
precursor to potential airstrikes there, but a mounting concern for
the White House is how to target the Sunni extremists without helping
President Bashar al-Assad. . . . The flights are a significant step
toward direct American military action in Syria, an intervention that
could alter the battlefield in the nation’s three-year civil war. . .
.

On Monday, Syria warned the White House that it needed to coordinate
airstrikes against ISIS or it would view them as a breach of its
sovereignty and an “act of aggression.” But it signaled its readiness
to work with the United States in a coordinated campaign against the
militants.

It was not even a year ago when we were bombarded with messaging that
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a Supreme Evil and Grave Threat,
and that military action against his regime was both a moral and
strategic imperative. The standard cast of “liberal interventionists”
–  Tony Blair, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Nicholas Kristof and Samantha
Power - issued stirring sermons on the duties of war against Assad.
Secretary of State John Kerry actually compared Assad to (guess who?)
Hitler, instructing the nation that “this is our Munich moment.”
Striking Assad, he argued, “is a matter of national security. It’s a
matter of the credibility of the United States of America. It’s a
matter of upholding the interests of our allies and friends in the
region.”

U.S. military action against the Assad regime was thwarted only by
overwhelming American public opinion which opposed it and by a
resounding rejection by the UK Parliament of Prime Minister David
Cameron.

“Oh, this is beyond anything that we’ve seen. So we must prepare for
everything,” he said
http://blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/2014/08/26/this-months-ultimate-enemy-the-islamic-state/

Enemies exist, of course. But boogeymen don’t. Anyone who tells you
otherwise is just trying to sell you something.

CNCNEWS(Africa) Ebola taking toll on W African economy @YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SXXAB12Aq4

Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/042NSX1808.pdf

Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, was in Liberia on Tuesday and later planned to stop in
Sierra Leone and Guinea. Nigeria also has cases, but officials there
have expressed optimism the virus can be controlled.

“Lots of hard work is happening. Lots of good things are happening,”
Frieden said at a meeting attended by Liberian President Ellen Johnson
Sirleaf on Monday. “But the virus still has the upper hand.”

MSF can only offer limited help in Congo Ebola outbreak @Reuters
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0GQ17520140826

Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF), the leading organisation in fighting
Ebola, said on Tuesday it could provide only limited support to tackle
a new outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo as it was already
overstretched by the worst ever epidemic.

Congo declared an Ebola outbreak on Sunday and announced plans to
quarantine the area around the town of Djera where a high number of
suspected cases has been reported. It is Congo's seventh outbreak
since the deadly hemorrhagic fever was discovered in 1976 in the same
isolated northwestern jungle province, Equateur.

MSF said that four of its samples had tested positive for the virus,
without specifying whether these were in addition to two cases already
confirmed by the government at the weekend.

"Usually, we would be able to mobilise specialist hemorrhagic fever
teams, but we are currently responding to a massive epidemic in West
Africa," said Jeroen Beijnberger, MSF medical coordinator in Congo.

"This is limiting our capacity to respond to the epidemic in Equateur Province."

The charity will nevertheless send doctors, nurses and logistics
experts to the region and will work with the government to open an
Ebola case management centre in Lokolia.

MSF said that the timing of the Congo outbreak was likely an
"unfortunate coincidence", although it did not entirely discount a
link with the outbreak currently raging in West Africa that has
already killed at least 1,427 people.

Congo's Health Minister Felix Kabange Numbi said on Sunday that the
outbreak in Equateur was a different strain of the virus from the
deadly Zaire version detected in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and
Nigeria.

The World Health Organization, which also plans to send protective
equipment to protect medical staff from the highly contagious virus,
initially said that an outbreak of hemorrhagic gastroenteritis had
killed at least 70 people.

A WHO spokesman said on Monday that several illnesses are thought to
exist in the area including malaria, and shigellosis, an intestinal
disease.

Euro 1.3159 The single currency broke down to a new 11-month trough of
$1.3154 in Asia, taking it nearer to the Sept. 6 low of $1.3104
Dollar Index 82.65 U.S. dollar index reached its highest in 13 months at 82.698.
Japan Yen 103.98
Swiss Franc 0.9178
Pound 1.6552
Aussie 0.9315
India Rupee 60.47
South Korea Won 1014.40 The won rose 0.2 percent to 1,015.29 per
dollar as of 9:49 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. It touched 1,014.63 earlier, the strongest since July 10
Brazil Real 2.2615
Egypt Pound 7.1523
South Africa Rand 10.6744

Yields on 10-year German debt fell a basis point to a record closing
low of 0.943 percent, while negative yields on two-year paper meant
investors were paying for the pleasure of lending to Berlin
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0GR02920140827

On Wall Street the S&P 500 had ended Tuesday above the 2,000 mark for
the first time, adding 0.11 percent. The Dow firmed 0.17 percent and
the Nasdaq 0.29 percent.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0GR02920140827

Snapchat Inc. is near a round of funding at a valuation of about $10
billion from investors including venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins
Caufield & Byers, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/snapchat-said-to-near-funding-with-kleiner-at-10b-value.html

Conclusions

I knew it was worth a few billion when I noticed how many hours the
Teenagers were spending on the Platform.

Gold 3 month Chart INO 1283.75 [Ukraine lifted it a little]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 93.87 [a Trading Buy]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.V14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Frontier Markets

A “young” member of the Republican Guard is under arrest after the
incident in which Guelleh’s personal physician, Idris Abdi Gala, was
shot twice in the chest and a third bullet caused a “small wound” to
his head, Youssouf said in a phone interview today. The shooting took
place yesterday about five minutes after Guelleh left the airport,
where he had arrived after attending a regional summit in neighboring
Ethiopia.

“This man started shooting at one of the members of the delegation
that came with the president who is his medical doctor,” Youssouf
said. “An investigation is going on to know what are his motivations
and why he targeted the doctor.”

Djibouti hosts the biggest U.S. military base in Africa at Camp
Lemonnier. The U.S. warned its citizens in June of the risk of travel
to Djibouti because of “potential terrorist threats.” The U.K.
government advised that al-Shabaab plans to carry out further attacks
in Djibouti and may target Western interests.

“So far we cannot confirm that this incident has anything to do with
al-Shabaab or al-Qaeda,” Youssouf said. “The result of the inquiry
will give us a clearer picture of why this happened.”

A rebel commander who warned the U.N. not to fly over his territory
shot down a U.N. helicopter Tuesday in rural South Sudan, charged a
spokesman for a state governor. ABC News
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-source-helicopter-shot-south-sudan-25128569

The U.N. confirmed that three people died and one survived — all
Russian citizens — when one of its helicopters crashed. The U.N. said
it is investigating the cause.

The U.N. mission said that an Mi-8 cargo helicopter crashed near
Bentiu, a hotly contested area between the government and rebel
fighters.

South Sudanese rebel commander Peter Gadet had warned the U.N. last
week not to fly over his territory, said the spokesman for the
governor of Northern Bahr el-Ghazal state, Akol Ayom Wek. Gadet's
forces shot down the helicopter with a rocket-propelled grenade, said
Wek.

1.  SOUTH Africa has 71,000 dollar millionaires, 60% of the total
number in sub-Saharan Africa. That is more than Saudi Arabia or the
United Arab Emirates. This surge in millionaires since 1994 has been
supported by state-mandated policies of empowerment that produced
privileged deal flows.  These dollar millionaires are expected to
triple by 2016.

2. Nigeria has the world’s second-highest growth in new champagne
consumption, trailing only France.  As home to Nollywood and an
extremely lucrative oil industry, Nigeria’s love of champagne is
fuelled by the country’s large-living elite who see the drink as a
clear status symbol. Prices for champagne in Nigerian nightclubs can
vary widely, with a bottle of Moet & Chandon NV costing around $130,
while bottles of Cristal can cost more than $900. ( Read: Rise of
Africa’s luxury loving super rich - from Nigeria’s champagne love
affair to South Africa’s cosmetics obsession)

3. By 2020, about 10 million young Africans will be joining the labour
market every year.  Fuelled by a reduction in infant mortality and
higher life expectancy, Africa is now the world’s most youthful
continent with approximately 65% of the total population below the
ages of 35 years, and 35% between the ages of 15 and 35 years . (Read:
Jobs, sex, money - what Africa’s young people think about)

4. Kinshasa is the second largest “Francophone” urban area in the
world after Paris. This may not be surprising considering Kinshasa is
the capital of the most populous Francophone country in the world,
where an estimated 24 million people - 40% of the total population
live.  Interestingly, French is not the DR Congo’s first language, it
is the second but it is the predominant language of businesses,
administrations, schools, newspapers and televisions. Lingala is the
first.

5. Johannesburg is the world’s largest city not situated on a river,
lake, or coastline. With a population over 10 million, this South
African megacity is the provincial capital of Gauteng, the wealthiest
province in South Africa, having the largest economy of any
metropolitan region in Sub-Saharan Africa. This fact illustrates the
city’s intrinsic wealth that has been buoyed by O.R Tambo
International Airport, the biggest and busiest airport in Africa,
which has made it a gateway city for the rest of southern Africa.
(Read: In these Sub-Saharan African cities, riches and happiness await
the hard working and lucky ones)

6. Luanda is the world’s third most populous Portuguese-speaking city,
behind only São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Angola achieved independence
quite recently from the Portuguese - in 1975, when the city was
already modern and the language strongly established. Today,
Portuguese continues to be the official language of Angola and  with a
population that is expected to surpass the 10 million mark by 2030 it
is sure to be one of the highest in the world.

7. Africa’s 90 or so ports handle about just 6% of global traffic, and
only six ports, three in Egypt and three in South Africa, handle over
50% of the whole continent’s container traffic. But traffic is
increasingly coming from Africa itself—in 2012, the three countries
registering the highest growth in container throughput in 2012 were
all in Africa - Congo (44.6%), Ghana (30%), Kenya (22.7%). Africa
could look to the seas to fill its job gap, in 2007, Britain’s
maritime industry employed 10% of its workforce . (Read: Suez
expansion spurs race as Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania look to break South
Africa and Egypt port supremacy)

8. The disease with the highest mortality rate in Africa, untreated,
is African tryposomiasis, also known as sleeping sickness. It kills
100% of those infected if it goes untreated. Fortunately it does have
a cure, and tsetse fly control has reduced its incidence around the
continent. ( Read: Getting real: Why you should fear that stray dog
more than Ebola)

9. You are more likely to die before age 65 in rich Nigeria, Angola or
South Africa, than in poor South Sudan or Somalia. Income inequality
in a country shortens life expectancy, and in many prosperous African
countries today, the benefits of wealth are only reaching those
already rich, while the poor get poorer—and die younger.

10. Slums are the “new normal”: in most of western, eastern and
central Africa, more than half of city residents live in slums, and it
can be as high as 80% in Mozambique, Angola and Central African
Republic (CAR). ( Read: Big surprises: Why African cities should look
at slums as the ‘new normal’)

11. No need to be ashamed anymore. You can be rich bringing your
“village habits” to the city: In Brazzaville, Congo, 80% of the urban
demand for leafy vegetables is met by gardeners who farm 500 hectares
of land in the city.  The earnings of market gardeners have been
estimated at up to five times the national per capita income average.

12. Sixty per cent of Harare’s residents grow their own food. As the
country’s agricultural reform policy devastated the economy and
inflation made the Zimbabwe’s currency useless, farming within
Harare’s city’s limits has boomed.

13. Only one in ten children in Nairobi’s slums is unwanted at the
time of conception—two-thirds of pregnancies are wanted, and for just
under a quarter (23%), mothers say the pregnancy was wanted but
mistimed, only happening sooner than expected.

14. It is totally counter-intuitive, but child survival in Nairobi’s
slums actually improves with larger household size. Newborn and child
deaths are twice as likely to occur in a household with two or less
people sharing a room, than with five or more people sharing a room.
Deaths were highest in households with 3-4 people. More people means
more hands to work, and importantly, more people to take sick children
to see a doctor.

15. The African spirit of kinship and community lives strong. Ethiopia
and Kenya continue to take in refugees as countries all around them
struggle with internecine warfare, even if the risks of admitting them
can sometimes be politicised, as in the case of Kenya. The two
countries are now home to  over a million refugees, as South Sudan and
Somalia fight for stability.

16. There has long been a case made for African island nations—that
small is beautiful, and their geography has a role to play in their
prosperity.  Mauritius, Comoros, Seychelles, Sao Tome and Principe,
Cape Verde all regularly rank atop most governance and quality of life
indices. To buttress this, data from the United Nations refugee agency
showed these countries have no refugees, at all.

17. A lot of recent attention has been on the US-China ramp up of
trade and investment in Africa, while a flurry of summits with other
players—the EU and Japan—have kept up global attention on the
continent. But other smaller powers have also had good shopping days.
Three years ago India held its first Africa summit, at the AU’s Addis
Ababa summit. Less than 15 heads of state met then premier Manmohan
Singh. At the time, officials forecast biliateral trade of $70 billion
by 2015. Last year, volumes reached $93 billion. But the Asian country
has deftly exploited its historical adavantage. Turkish trade has also
increased four fold since 2008 to reach $23 billion in 2013.  (Read:
No free lunch: Newer players also want a slice of the continent’s
growth)

18. But Africa is also looking to its own devices. This week southern
African heads of state met in Zimbabwe where they agreed to continue
to push further on regional integration. The Southern African
Development Community (SADC), the Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (Comesa) and the East African Community (EAC) have
been working on a tripartite agreement for a free trade area that
would benefit 600 million people in 26 African countries—with a
combined domestic product of about $1 trillion.  Officials are hopeful
a deal can be closed next year—ahead of a 2016 schedule.

19. Despite a tendency to bin flights to the three hardest-hit Ebola
countries—Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia—by tense governments, the
International Air Transport Association (IATA), during its Aviation
Day Africa in South Africa this week strongly opposed this, arguing
that stopping air services was contrary to aviation liberalisation
which would be a “total boost” to African economies. An IATA report
showed African countries stood to gain billions, and add hundreds of
thousands of jobs. (Read: Thank god for Ebola, Africa is doing the
right thing)

20:  Africa’s high net worth individuals give $7 billion in
philanthropic ventures every year. Newly rich Africans have also
opened their wallets, and analysts say this has the potential to
rewrite the traditional aid architecture. ( Read: Africa’s ‘nouveau
riche’ rewrite the aid book, give $7bn every year in philanthropy)

Gross domestic product rose after contracting 0.6 percent in the first
quarter, the statistics office said in a report released today in the
capital, Pretoria. The median estimate of 23 economists in a Bloomberg
survey was 0.9 percent.

Mining plunged an annualized 9.4 percent last quarter after
contracting 25 percent in the previous three months. Manufacturing,
which makes up about 15 percent of the economy, declined 2.1 percent
after falling 4.4 percent in the first quarter.

“The environment has been challenging with strikes and supply-side
constraints, particularly on the energy” side, Nene said in an
interview in Johannesburg yesterday. That’s “added to the challenges
we have been confronted with in order to achieve the growth target.”

GDP last quarter was buoyed by a 2.9 percent expansion in government
services, which contributes 14 percent to the economy. This was due to
an increased number of people being employed during the election in
May, said Gerhardt Bouwer, executive manager of national accounts at
the statistics agency.

The rand has weakened 21 percent against the dollar since the start of
last year, the worst performance of 16 major currencies tracked by
Bloomberg, helping to improve the competitiveness of exporters. At the
same time it’s fueled inflation, prompting the central bank to
increase its benchmark repurchase rate by 75 basis points this year to
5.75 percent.

51,729.68 +292.10 +0.57%

How Brightest Brain Kirkinis Failed With His African Bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-27/how-brightest-brain-kirkinis-failed-with-his-african-bank.html

Leon Kirkinis, described as one of the sharpest minds in banking,
changed South Africa by expanding credit to the poor. He also
underestimated the risks, wrecked his company, rattled financial
markets and left many of his 3.2 million clients drowning in debt.

Kirkinis, 54, co-founded African Bank Investments Ltd. in 1999 and
built it into the country’s largest maker of loans not backed by
collateral. He resigned Aug. 6, the same day the company said it would
post a record loss and need 8.5 billion rand ($790 million) to
survive. The South African Reserve Bank stepped in four days later to
salvage what it could.

African Bank’s “inherent flaw” was that it didn’t provision enough for
bad debts, said Kokkie Kooyman, head of Cape Town-based Sanlam Global
Investments, which oversees about $900 million. That left the lender,
commonly known as Abil, vulnerable when its target market suffered
“severe deterioration” from protracted mining strikes that began in
2012, he said.

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.674
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1497
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +37.99% 2014 [Multi Year Highs]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,359.18 -44.21 -0.47%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.2274% 2014 [9 week lows]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

41,235.27 -104.23 -0.25%

Nigeria troops cross into north Cameroon after Boko Haram attacks base
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/26/us-cameroon-nigeria-idUSKBN0GQ1JJ20140826

Around 480 Nigerian soldiers crossed into Cameroon after Boko Haram
militants operating along the border between the two nations attacked
a military base and police station, authorities in Cameroon said on
Tuesday.

The apparent retreat across the border may suggest Boko Haram is
having some success at chasing Nigerian forces out of towns they are
defending along the hilly frontier with Cameroon.

Nigeria's Defense Ministry spokesman Major-General Chris Olukolade
said the troops charged across the border in a tactical maneuver
during a sustained battle with the militants.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +2.6017% [7 month Lows]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,201.54 -1.01 -0.05%

President Peter Mutharika has shot down Cabinet ministers' request
for a 600% salary hike to cover the higher cost of living.
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-08-26-malawi-president-rejects-ministers-bid-for-600-salary-increase

The Cabinet secretary asked for a six-fold increase of the 20
ministers’ salaries to $8 800 a month to cover the higher cost of
living, according to presidential spokesperson Frederick Ndala.

But Mutharika “finds it unethical to raise ministers’ salaries when
the cost of living is not only high for them, but for every Malawian”,
Ndala told Agence France-Presse. Mutharika, who came to power after
beating Joyce Banda in May elections, will prioritise “the improvement
of living standards of civil servants,” his spokesperson said.

“The opportunities are there (in Mozambique),” Mr Nyusi said.
“Mozambique is no longer a country to talk about, but it is a country
you have to speak to.” FT
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e2853df6-2c42-11e4-a0b6-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3BVeP7CP5

“It’s very important that the two sides formally signed up last night
and will end all these hostilities,” said Fernando Lima, head of
Mediacoop, an independent media group. “The issue is of instability,
the issue of people not travelling freely, even business being
affected, this was being a big deal.”

Mr Lima says a cessation of hostilities, as well as peaceful
elections, were key issues being watched by investors as they sought
to gauge the stability of the country.

“If we have elections without major problems, I think it will restore
almost fully again the confidence in investment,” he says.

Fishermen say there are reports of dozens of unidentified bodies being
spotted in recent weeks in Lake Rweru.

It is not clear how they died. The regional authorities say their
investigations indicate the victims were not from Burundi.

But Rwanda police say no-one has been reported missing on the Rwandan side.

''The victims are not Burundian citizens because the bodies are coming
from Akagera River flowing from Rwanda,'' Burundian official, Jean
Berchmans Mpabansi, told the BBC.

The latest bodies - five wrapped within two plastic bags - were
discovered on Sunday and Monday.

At least 74 people living with albinism have been murdered Tanzania
since 2000. Here albino body parts sell for around $600, with an
entire corpse fetching $75,000.

Roland Barthes is well worth reading on photography and wrote:
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/039NSX1108.pdf

“One of the marks of our world is perhaps this reversal: we live
according to a generalised image- repertoire. Consider the United
States, where everything is transformed into images: only images exist
and are produced and are consumed...”

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           402.00
Total Shares Issued:          59900000.00
Market Capitalization:        24,079,800,000
EPS:             38
PE:                 10.579

First Half Earnings through 30th june 2014 versus through june 2013
First Half Gross premium 12.9331b versus 10.0666b +28.5%
First Half Deposit Administration In Flows 2.2053b versus 1.8742b +17.7%
First Half Gross Revenue [including from Insurance Operations]
15.1384b versus 11.9408b +26.8%
First Half Claims and Policy Holders benefits payable [6.393342b]
versus [5.831090b] +9.642%
First Half Management Expenses [1.517606b] versus [1.148376b] +32.152%
First Half Net Fair Value gain through profit and loss 880.512m versus 1.289389b
First Half Investment income 1.871527b versus 1.675965b +11.6686%
First Half Profit before Tax 1.5452b versus 1.1458b +34.9%
First Half Profit after Tax 1.0765b versus 0.7938b +35.6%
First Half Earnings Per share 18.00 versus 13.3 +35.6%
Interim Dividend of 1 shilling a share unchanged
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the Period 8.855908b versus 5.878160b

 The company said its insurance business in Tanzania grew by 96 per
cent, Burundi 34 per cent, Jubilee Mauritius was up by 31 per cent
while Jubilee Uganda recorded a 29 per cent growth.

Conclusions

Strong First Half Earnings. Jubilee is a strong Franchise and its an
inexpensive share compared to its peers.

Par Value:
Closing Price:           17.50
Total Shares Issued:          515270364.00
Market Capitalization:        9,017,231,370
EPS:             2.15
PE:                 8.140

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013
First Half Total Assets 31.835816b versus 29.215173b +9.00%
First Half Gross earned premium income 3.898215b versus 3.546840b
First Half Less - Outward Reinsurance [1.771451b] versus [1.650951b]
First Half Net Insurance premium revenue 2.126765b versus 1.895889b
First Half Investment Income 1.233956b versus 0.975249b +27%
First Half Total Income 3.748252b versus 3.213777b
First Half Net Insurance benefits and claims [1.465762b] versus
[1.256537b] +16.65%
First Half Other operating expenses [1.234707b] versus [1.043239b] +18.35%
First Half Profit before Income Tax 562.724m versus 481.540m +16.859%
First Half Profit after Tax 460.974m versus 378.276m +21.862%
First Half Earnings Per share 0.89 versus 0.73 +21.917%

Conclusions

Strong results and an attractively priced share.

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           107.00
Total Shares Issued:          23727000.00
Market Capitalization:        2,538,789,000
EPS:             9.01
PE:                 11.876

First Half Earnings through 30th june 2014 versus through 30th June 2013
First Half Revenue 2.872947b versus 2.470501b +16.29%
First Half Profit Before Tax 156.207m versus 120.626m +29.49%
First Half Profit after Tax 109.345m versus 84.715m +29.073%
First Half Earnings Per Share 4.61 versus 3.57 +29.131%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at end of Period 48.585m versus 68.198m

Company Commentary

''The Board has a positive outlook for second half of the year given
the current state of the construction industry''

Conclusions

Strong and solid numbers with an attractive low base effect.

The central bank of Kenya pumped dollars into the market on Tuesday,
lifting the shilling from its lowest level since December 2011, making
it clear that it would not tolerate volatility in the exchange rate.
The shilling finished the day at 88.30/40 per dollar, up from a low of
88.80/90 earlier in the session.
The currency strengthened after the central bank sold an unspecified
amount of dollars to banks in the afternoon

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +15.01% 2014 [Record All Time High]
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.395% 2014 [above 5,000 since 5th August]
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Lamin and I believe interest rates are coming lower says @JoshuaOigara
#Safaricompowerhour @MJCentre #Kenya #Africa
pic.twitter.com/Tj12dtsTvL

The bank, based in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, may enter Madagascar,
the Democratic Republic of Congo or South Sudan by 2017, Samji said in
an interview yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/diamond-trust-bank-mulls-africa-expansion-after-raising-capital.html

Diamond Trust last month raised 3.63 billion shillings ($41 million)
by selling new shares to existing stockholders.

“In the next two to three years, we are going to be in one of those
countries,” Samji said. “The determining factor of where we are going
to have a footprint will be determined by what makes economic sense to
the people of those countries.”

Madagascar, Congo and South Sudan offer growth opportunities for
Kenyan lenders because of their lack of access to banking facilities.
While 42 percent of Kenyans aged over 15 have have an account at a
formal financial institution, that ratio is only 6 percent in
Madagascar and 4 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo, World
Bank bank data shows. The Sub-Saharan Africa average is 24 percent.

In South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan three years ago,
only 1 percent of households have a bank account, according to the
United Nations.

Diamond Trust, an affiliate of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic
Development SA, ranks as Kenya’s sixth-biggest lender by market value.

“The biggest challenge now is that the banking industry is becoming
very competitive, not only in Kenya, but within the East African
market,” Shamji said. “There is a lot of push from various organs of
government, for example the central bank, to reduce our interest rates
and as a result our margins are becoming thinner.”

Diamond Trust Bank share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTY%3D

Kenya Reinsurance has bought 10 shares worth Sh87.5 million in African
Trade Insurance Agency, as the two roll out plans to play bigger roles
in insuring investments on the continent.
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-Re-ATI-Investment/-/996/2431792/-/ij2fn6z/-/index.html

Speaking during the signing ceremony at Kenya Re Plaza, ATI chief
executive officer George Otieno said the two were focused on trade
credit financing.

The firm has increased business, insuring against terrorism and
political risks in recent years.

“ATI’s vision is to transform Africa into a prime trade and investment
destination. With the Kenya Re partnership, the underwriting capacity
has grown, making ATI better armed to provide investment and trade
insurance to the multi-billion projects expected in Africa,” he said.