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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 08th of September 2014

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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It was Pleasure speaking with @citylordmayor @cnbcafrica @Davidwilliamza look forward to saying Karibu @HCCTurner

The Next #Mindspeak is this Saturday 13th September and the Guest is
Manoj @changarampatt @Samsung EA IM Director

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A Post #Mindspeak One on One Interview with @Dennis_Makori @YouTube

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Moonlight floods the whole sky from horizon to horizon; How much it
can fill your room depends on its windows" Rumi

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The Moon last night

''Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark
Secret'' @SalmanRushdie

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Nato has thrown out a whole new characterisation of warfare called 'ambiguous' warfare. Eastern Ukraine has become a 'shadow- zone.'
Law & Politics

Western Leaders in Denial on Ukraine Sanctions


It's safe to assume Russian President Vladimir Putin will want to
retaliate. His previous response has already hit Europe where it
hurts: Food prices are declining because Russia no longer imports
European fruit, dairy products, meat and fish. According to
Brussels-based agricultural lobby group Copa-Cogeca, milk prices in
some parts of Europe are down by as much as 30 percent. Some fruit,
such as apples and pears, is now so cheap that farmers are thinking of
not harvesting. Copa-Cogeca says EU measures proposed so far, such as
purchasing interventions and storage aid, are inadequate and direct
subsidies are needed to keep farms afloat.

ISIS's treatment of Foley was "macabre," and included mock
executions and forcing Foley to stand against a wall to "pose as if he
had been crucified."


Abu Ghraib


One of the first large-scale deployments of cult technology, informed
by this research, was the creation of the Jihad movement by the CIA


"The big falling-out is over Egypt, not Syria," said Paul Salem, a
scholar at the Middle East Institute. Now, he said, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and the other gulf states "are putting the
squeeze on Qatar." @nytimes


The skyline of Doha, the capital. Several people identified by the
United States as private fund-raisers for Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate
operate freely in the city. Credit Yoan Valat/European Pressphoto


According to Nobel Prize-winning biologist Joshua Lederberg, "The
single biggest threat to man's continued dominance on this planet is
the [Ebola] virus." 18-AUG-2014


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@narendramodi wrote to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to offer help for relief efforts in areas of the disputed region of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan.
Law & Politics

Modi in his letter offered "any assistance that you may need in the
relief efforts that will be undertaken by the government of Pakistan,"
adding "our resources are at your disposal wherever you need them."

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2937
Dollar Index 83.90
Japan Yen 105.08 The yen was little changed at 105.05 per dollar at
1:25 p.m. in Tokyo after depreciating to 105.71 on Sept. 5, the
weakest level since October 2008.
Japan's economy contracted by 7.1% in the three months to June, more
than initial estimates, and revised from 6.8% reported in August.
Swiss Franc 0.9326
Pound 1.6211 Sterling fell nearly 1 percent to around $1.6165 GBP=D4,
reaching lows not seen since Nov. 26.
Aussie 0.9373 The Australian dollar eased 0.1 percent to $0.9369
AUD=D4, having backed off from Friday's high of $0.9403, its highest
level since late July.
India Rupee 60.21
South Korea Won 1025.80
Brazil Real 2.2410
Egypt Pound 7.1582
South Africa Rand 10.7059

The yen has declined 1.4 percent in the past month, according to
Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed nation
currencies. The euro dropped 2 percent, while the dollar strengthened
1.9 percent.

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 83.887


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against a
basket of 10 leading global currencies, rose 0.1 percent to 1,039.17
after reaching 1,041.58 on Sept. 5, the highest since July 2013 .

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You see in the old days, these conditions would have created a flight into the dollar. 25-AUG-2014
International Trade

And interestingly the dollar has been punching higher. If things tip
big, the dollar might soar.

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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.29411
World Currencies

Sterling 3 month Chart INO 1.6211


Sterling fell nearly 1 percent to around $1.6165 GBP=D4, reaching lows
not seen since Nov. 26.


Sterling weakened to its lowest in nearly 10 months on Monday amid
worries about political uncertainty after an opinion poll showed
supporters of Scottish independence from Britain taking the lead for
the first time since the referendum campaign began.

With less than two weeks to go before the vote, a YouGov survey for
the Sunday Times newspaper put the "Yes" to independence campaign at
51 percent against the "no" camp at 49 percent.

Sterling fell nearly 1 percent to around $1.6165 GBP=D4, reaching lows
not seen since Nov. 26. It last traded at $1.6222, down 0.7 percent on
the day. Against the euro, the pound touched its lowest level in
nearly three weeks at 80.17 pence per euro EURGBP=D4.

"I think the message here is that the market really hadn't priced in
the possibility of a 'yes' vote, so therefore we will probably see
some uncertainty, maybe some volatility," said Jesper Bargmann, head
of trading for Nordea Bank in Singapore.

"No ifs, no buts, we will not share the pound if Scotland separates
from the UK." George Osborne


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1270.85


Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 93.30


WTI for October delivery slipped $1.16, or 1.2 percent, to close at
$93.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices decreased
2.8 percent this week and are down 5.2 percent this year.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Grace Mugabe poised for political power in Zimbabwe

The 49-year-old was recently nominated as leader of the ruling
Zanu-PF's women's league, as well as having a place on its central
committee. She insists she is ready. "The time has come to show people
what I am made of," she told a crowd in Mazowe, the Zimbabwe Standard
reported. "People should learn to wait for their time... I had never
dreamed of entering politics, but you have approached me and I am
ready to go."

With her election virtually assured at a party congress in December,
she will take a seat on Zanu-PF's politburo and, as Mugabe's wife, be
untouchable. Tendai Biti, the former finance minister, thinks she will
go on to lead Zanu-PF. After years of speculation over who will
succeed Mugabe, some believe the next leader has been hiding in plain

"The only thing I've bought in Harrods? Almond nuts. Because I eat
lots of almond nuts. I want to eat healthily."

Political opponents are equally sceptical of the notion of a President
Mugabe Mark II. Nelson Chamisa, organising secretary of the MDC, said:
"If I look at the chances of her becoming president, I would find it
easier to impregnate a man or change Europe to Africa, or Africa to

Bharti Airtel gains after unit divests African telecoms tower assets


Bharti Airtel, a leading global telecommunications services provider
with operations in 20 countries across Asia and Africa [through its
subsidiary company Bharti Airtel International (Netherlands) BV
(Airtel)] and Eaton Towers, a leading independent telecoms tower
company in Africa, announced an agreement for the divestment of over
3500 telecoms towers from Airtel to Eaton Towers.

Airtel will sell and lease back over 3500 towers to Eaton in 6
countries across its African operations under a 10-year contract. The
pact expands Eaton Towers' coverage in Africa to 7 countries with over
5000 towers. The agreement follows Airtel's and Eaton Towers'
strategies to drive cost efficiencies throughout the industry via the
use of shared passive infrastructure.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.961% 2014


51,789.40 -291.82 -0.56%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.7047


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1588


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +43.364% 2014 [Fresh 2014 and Multi Year Highs]


9,723.49 +73.06 +0.76%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.4089% 2014 [June 20th 2014 Lows]


41,160.62 +143.13 +0.35%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.35% 2014 [January 24
2014 Lows]


2,217.25 +15.34 +0.70%

The cedi has slumped 37 percent this year


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Vaccine gives monkeys Ebola immunity

Vaccinated monkeys have developed "long-term" immunity to the Ebola
virus, raising a prospect of successful human trials, say scientists.

The experiments by the US National Institutes of Health showed
immunity could last at least 10 months.

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Sudan's annual inflation rate fell slightly to 46.4 percent in August, reflecting a 0.9 percent decrease in prices of consumer goods on the month.

But in the year to August, inflation was reported at 38.1 percent,
higher than in the same period last year when it was 35.5 percent.

Prices have surged in Sudan since South Sudan seceded in 2011, taking
with it three-quarters of the country's oil output. Oil is Sudan's
main source of foreign currency, which it needs to support its pound
and pay for food and other imports.

The soaring cost of living is a major issue in the run-up to elections
next year and has caused social unrest.

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But in the year to August, inflation was reported at 38.1 percent, higher than in the same period last year when it was 35.5 percent. Prices have surged in Sudan since South Sudan seceded in 2011, taking with it three-quarters of the country's oil outpu

The retail industry euphemistically calls shoplifting "shrinkage", and
this study by the University of South Africa reveals that contrary to
popular belief, most shoplifters do not steal items because they are
needy, hungry or desperate.

A good 90% of shoplifters are amateur, opportunistic pilferers who
nick small items that they may not even need only when the chance
presents itself, but one in ten is a professional shoplifter who
targets high-value items intended for resale on the black market.

Shoplifting is estimated to cost African retailers anything between
1.5% and 1.7% of turnover--Atul Shah, the managing director of Kenya's
biggest retail chain Nakumatt reckoned that the country's $2.3 billion
retail industry, was losing up to $35 million every year to

What kind of goods are stolen through shoplifting? Criminologists have
come up with a nifty acronym to describe the type of items that heavy
duty shoplifters target, CRAVED items (Concealable, Removable,
Available, Valuable, Enjoyable and Disposable).

Globally, the most shoplifted items are cheese, choice cuts of fresh
meat, and confectionery/chocolates, along with cigarettes and high-end

In Africa, the craved goods seem to be slightly different, and
anecdotal evidence suggests that infant formula is among the most
targeted goods--most major supermarkets in Kenya for instance now
either place infant formula behind a counter or secure it with a
tamper-proof seal.

High-end beauty products such as anti-stretch mark and anti-wrinkle
cream are also popular with the thieves, along with small, valuable
electronics like digital cameras and smartphones.

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Hague prosecutors ask to halt Kenyan president's trial
Kenyan Economy

"The accused person in this case is the head of a government that has
so far failed fully to comply with its obligations to the Court," ICC
prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said in a filing, asking judges to adjourn
the case indefinitely.


The Case against the President is crumbling like a stale Biscuit
Friday 19th of July 2013


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08-SEP-2014 The Decapitation of Godane, Africa Insurgencies and @USAfricaCommand
Kenyan Economy

On Friday, The Pentagon's press secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby
issued the following '"Immediate Release'' No: NR-465-14 September 05,
2014 on Ahmed Godane.

"We have confirmed that Ahmed Godane, the co-founder of al-Shabaab,
has been killed. The US military undertook operations against Godane
on September 1, which led to his death. Removing Godane from the
battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabaab.
The United States works in coordination with its friends, allies and
partners to counter the regional and global threats posed by violent
extremist organisations."

"This is not one of those cases where a permission slip is needed," a
senior administration official told the @NYTimes Tuesday.

The timing of the assassination by hell-fire missiles [and US-Africa
Command] on the very same day that African Heads of State were meeting
in Nairobi to discuss ways of boosting domestic efforts and
international support to combat insurgencies, was an important signal
in the noise. The meeting was expected to see leaders agree on
"concrete steps" to enhance existing measures to "effectively address
the threat of terrorism," the African Union said in a statement.

Ahmed Godane was well known to Kenyans and in an audio message
released days after the Nairobi attack, Godane praised the Westgate
terrorists who killed at least 67 people.

"I have been sent ahead of the hour with the sword so that Allah will
be worshipped alone without partners," he said in an audio mes- sage
posted on a website linked to al-Shabaab.

''You cannot withstand a war of attrition inside your own country. So
withdraw all your forces or be prepared for an abundance of blood that
will be spilt in your country."

I think there are few people in Kenya who would not have commended
US-Africa Command on removing Godane from the battlefield.

What is clear is that the Boko Haram insurgency in the West and the
al-Shabaab [and its franchises] insurgency here in the East have both
intensified and ratcheted higher. Boko Haram militants in Nigeria have
killed more than 2,000 people so far this year in their campaign to
impose Islamic rule, according to Human Rights Watch. HRW calculates
that 179 people have died in "terrorist incidents" in Kenya over the
same period. The statistics inform us of a disjunctive move in 2014 on
both sides of the continent and many points in between.

The markets have exhibited a noteworthy and outstanding resilience
with the Nairobi All-Share Index rallying close to 30 per cent since
Westgate. The Nigerian All- Share whilst trading near 10-week lows,
has been similarly resilient.

However, the spill over effects into the real economy have been clear
for all of us to see. Foreign Policy wrote this week: "The tour- ism
industry along the coast is on its deathbed.''

If you wander around our malls, you will note foot traffic and time
spent in the mall are both down big. And indigenous confidence levels
[which in my view has been consistently sky-high and a key ingredient
of the bulls narrative] has also taken a buffeting. As we look
forward, investors need to ask themselves the following questions.

Are we ahead of the curve or behind the curve in matters insur- gency?

Are we headed into a new 'Waziristan-type' normal?

Last year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said:
"As protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad

The insurgency tail risk remains and how it plays out will have
important consequence for ourselves and the entire Africarising

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IMMEDIATE RELEASE Release No: NR-465-14 September 05, 2014 Statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby on Ahmed Godane
Kenyan Economy

"We have confirmed that Ahmed Godane, the co-founder of al-Shabaab,
has been killed. The U.S. military undertook operations against Godane
on Sept. 1, which led to his death. Removing Godane from the
battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to al-Shabaab.
The United States works in coordination with its friends, allies and
partners to counter the regional and global threats posed by violent
extremist organizations."

For the second time in six years, there's a vacancy at the top of the
radical Islamist al-Shabaab group in Somalia


The Pentagon yesterday confirmed the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane, 37,
who led the group since U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles killed his
predecessor, Aden Hashi Ayro, in May 2008.

Godane claimed responsibility for the attack last year on the Westgate
shopping mall in Kenya's capital of Nairobi, in which at least 67
people died.


"We are going to degrade and ultimately defeat ISIL, the same way that
we have gone after al-Qaeda, the same way we have gone after the
al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, where we released today the fact that
we have killed the leader of al-Shabaab in Somalia," he said at a
press conference at the NATO summit in Newport, Wales.

"I have been sent ahead of the hour with the sword so that Allah will
be worshipped alone without partners," Godane said, in a video
praising the Westgate attack.


Al-Shabaab also warned: "Avenging the death of our scholars and
leaders is a binding obligation on our shoulders that we will never
relinquish nor forget no matter how long it takes."


"By the permission of Allah, you will surely taste the bitter
consequences of your actions."

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Uchumi reports Full Year PAT 2014 +7.64% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           11.90
Total Shares Issued:          265426614.00
Market Capitalization:        3,158,576,707
EPS:             1.45
PE:                8.2068

Full Year Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013

Full Year Total Net Sales 14.457687b versus 14.368643b +6.197%
Full Year Gross Profit 2.814083b versus 2.768495b +1.6466%
Full Year Other Income 1.321803b versus 910.709m +45.13999%
Full Year Operating Expenses [3.618497b] versus [3.177240b] +13.888%
Full Year Profit from Operating Activities 517.389m versus 501.964m +3.072%
Full Year Finance Costs [64.64m] versus [16.062m] +302.44%
Full Year Profit before Tax 452.749m versus 485.902m -6.822%
Full Year Tax [68.461m] versus [128.892m] -46.88%
Full Year Profit After Tax 384.288m versus 357.010 +7.64%
Full Year Earnings Per share 1.45 versus 1.35 +7.407%
Final Dividend 0.30 unchanged

Company Commentary

Though there was a general decline in inflation in the East African
economies, the rate was still high and this translated in to lower
unit consumption.
8 new branches opened in green sites
Total Branch network 27 in kenya 4 in Tanzania and 6 in Uganda Total =37
Total Group sales registered marginal growth ..mainly due to the drop
during the year in the Uganda Subsidiary by 12% mainly attributed to
competition, supply chain challenges and some locations becoming
Tanzania Sales grew by 10%.
Kenya registered a 2% growth in sales.
Annual Customer numbers increased by 13%.
New Loan Facilities via KCB and ICDC.
Government of Kenya loan fully settled on 30th June 2014.


The earnings growth was driven by a decline in the company's effective
tax rate (-1,150bps y/y to 15.1%).
its a cheap share but needs to accelerate its roll out strategy and a
much steeper Trajectory.
Personally, I remain baffled via Someone has not seen fit to launch a Takeover.

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Jonathan Ciano Uchumi CEO @ Ambassador of Belgium 105 Days ago
Kenyan Economy


Stronger Metrics

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 88.691


I, for one, am not prepared to buy the 90+ shilling per dollar and
even 95 forecast. 01-SEP-2014


The shilling has confounded expectations and will confound them again.
The most important [inverse] correlation for the shilling is with the
price of crude oil. Crude oil has retreated more than 10 per cent over
the last four weeks and this price retreat will give relief to the

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +16.677% 2014 [0.4992% below a record high
set last week]


159.44 -0.07 -0.04%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.75% 2014 [more than 6 year highs]


5,160.32 +3.17 +0.06%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


@Centum_Inv share price data here +68.18% 2014.at a record


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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share posted 8 record highs out of the last 10 Trading
sessions before light sized profit taking thursday and friday.
The All Share turned 0.2% higher today to close at 159.78.
The All Share is very much in a Bull Channel and set fair to rally
into Fresh All Time Highs.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed 0.2% to close at a fresh 6 year high of 5,168.80
Centum +81.81% in 2014 and Kenya Orchards +633.33% and Crown Berger
+53.33% set all time Highs.
There were just under 2 Winners for every 1 losing stock.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kenya Orchards continued its parabolic price rally in 2014 and surged
+10.00% to close at a Fresh record of 22.00. Kenya Orchards is
+633.33% in 2014

Kenya Orchards share price data +633.33% 2014

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

firmed 0.38% to close at 13.25 and a 13.20-13.35 range and
3.959m shares worth 52.636m. Safaricom is +22.11% in 2014 and will
retest an All Time High of 13.40 set September 3rd, in very short

Uchumi reported Full Year Earnings before the Opening Bell where Full
Year Total Net Sales expanded a marginal 0.6% to 14.457687b, FY Other
Income was +45.1399% at 1.321803b, FY Profit after Tax increased
+7.64% in part because of a Tax Charge that was 46.88% lower than the
previous year. Uchumi's Earnings Per Share increased +7.407% and the
Dividend maintained at 30cents a share. In the accompanying
commentary, Uchumi spoke to ''Lower unit consumption'' and reported a
12% Sales decline in Uganda where it has 6 stores. Kenya was +2.00%
and Tanzania grew +10.00%. Uchumi closed unchanged at 11.90. Uchumi
trades on a PE of 8.207 and has a market Capitalisation of 3.158b
shillings. its a cheap share but needs to accelerate its roll out
strategy and on a much steeper Trajectory. Now that Uchumi has fully
paid off the Loan from the GOK, I would have thought a number of Folks
will be running the slide rule over the business with a view to
considering a Takeover

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Centum surged 8.108% to set an All Time Closing High at 60.00 and
traded 442,300 shares worth 26.555m. Centum has soared +81.81% in 2014
and through a series of record closing Highs. Centum trades on a
Trailing PE of 13.215.

@Centum_Inv Centum share price data here +81.81% 2014 record high

Equity Bank firmed 0.529% to close at 48.00 and traded 627,900 shares.
Equity Bank has posted a blistering +56.97% Year To date Rally and is
just 1.0309% below a record High of 48.50 set on the 2nd of this
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 57.50 and was trading at
58.00 +0.87% at the closing Bell. KCB trades 316,700 shares and was
better supplied through the session.

Pan Africa Insurance rallied 4.84% to close at 130.00 where 7,000
shares were all traded. Pan Africa has rallied +44.44% in 2014

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

BAT eased 0.1234% off an All Time High to close at 809.00 and traded
91,600 shares worth 74.193m making it the most actively traded share
at the Exchange today. BAT has served up a a +40.41% Total Return so
far in 2014. BAT accelerated First Half  Profit after Tax +14.5% to

BAT share price data +40.41% Total Return Basis in 2014

Bamburi Cement retreated 3.067% to close at a Fresh 2014 Low of 158.00
and was trading 2014 intra day lows of 155.00 -4.91% at the Finale.
Bamburi Cement has steeply underperformed the broader market and has
retreated 24.76% year to date. Bamburi Cement traded 262,200 shares.

Crown Berger was high ticked 7.48% and closed at a Fresh Record High
of 115.00 and traded just 100 shares. Crown Berger is +53.33% in 2014
and a part of the blistering small cap rally witnessed at the
Securities exchange this year.

Crown Paints share price data here +53.33% 2014

EABL ticked 0.7% higher to close at 287.00 and traded light volume of
17,100 shares. EABL is at the bottom of its recent trading range and
is expected to bounce from here

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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September 2014

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