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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 04th of December 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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The Shark Dubai Mall
Africa


Home Thoughts

I thoroughly enjoyed myself at the Kenton College Carol Service
yesterday, singing Carols with a multi-ethnic multi confessional group
of Parents and Kids.

Of course, I finally sighted Hannah in the Choir and started
gesticulating like a Mad man and afterwards when we got home she had a
quiet word with me and informed me that whilst appreciating my
enthusiasm she would prefer it if I dod not make such a spectacle.

“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of
arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to
skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally
worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!” ― Hunter S.
Thompson

“THE EDGE, there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.”
Hunter S. Thompson

Hunter S. Thompson
http://thesuperslice.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Midlife-08.jpg

read more




Putin Out to Soothe ‘Panic’ Over Economy as Oil Sinks Ruble
Law & Politics


“He’ll seek to soothe nerves” in the face of “some panic,” Alexey
Panin, deputy director of the Center for Political Information, said
by phone from the Russian capital. “But he’ll have to be realistic and
present facts and figures that will convince people that all’s well.”

The speech has become an annual tradition after then-President Boris
Yeltsin first delivered it in 1994.

Putin may blame Russia’s economic malaise on “external conditions,”
according to Frederik Erixon, director of the European Centre of
International Political Economy in Brussels.

“The drop in oil prices is going to be one of those points and
sanctions from the West would be the other,” Erixon said by phone.
“His message is going to be that the Russian economy is in a good
shape and it could be coming along at fairly decent growth rates had
it not been subject to those issues, sanctions on Russian economic
interests and the drop in oil prices.”

As geopolitical tensions mount, an index compiled by the state-run
All-Russia Center for the Study of Public Opinion showed that the
threat of a new Cold War is seen as the highest in seven years.

Putin said last month that at moments of crisis “it starts to feel
like it is politics that prevails” in energy pricing. In his last
public remarks on Dec. 1, Putin said Russia is scrapping a proposed
$45 billion pipeline to Europe.

As gloom spreads, Putin can also summon the memory of the decade that
preceded the start of his first presidential term in 2000, said
Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Brondby,
Denmark. That time was marked by political and economic upheaval that
included the government’s $40 billion default and inflation exceeding
200 percent.

“Putin may offer two choices,” Miklashevsky said. “Go back to the
raucous 1990s, or face the new normal -- concentrating on internal
resources, internal demand and partnership with Asia in economic ties,
taking the best possible from what the West is offering.”

read more


Putin pulls when Obama pushes M K Bhadrakumar
Law & Politics


Assuming your opponent has a strength of six and you have a strength
of four, if both exert in pushing against each other, your four is
sure to lose to his six. One of the basics of applying force in judo
is that if you do not push but pull as he pushes, you add your four to
his six so that with a strength of ten you can easily pull him down.

‘Judo Knight’ Russian President Vladimir Putin, president of Russia,
would know that only too well and he ‘applied force’ on his US
adversary President Barack Obama by his surprise decision to scrap the
South Stream gas pipeline project.

The $40 billion Gazprom-funded South Stream would have brought gas
from Russia under the Black Sea to Bulgaria and on to southeastern
Europe. Putin announced while on a visit to Ankara, Turkey,

On the face of it, Moscow ‘retreated’, given the European Commission’s
lukewarm attitude under American pressure, not to increase further its
energy dependence on Russia. But in reality, Putin outmaneuvered the
West. He said,

“We will redirect the flow of our energy resources to other regions of
the world, including by advanced and fast realization of liquefied
natural gas projects. We will advance to the other markets and Europe
will not receive these volumes, at least from Russia. We think that
this is not corresponding with Europe’s economic interests and causes
damage to our cooperation. But this is the choice of our European
friends.”

In sum, Russia has mothballed South Stream, but it will nonetheless
sell more gas to Europe via Turkey and there is nothing that the
European Commission (or Washington) can do about it if the countries
of southern Europe find it advantageous to tap into the energy hub
that Russia is planning to create on Turkey’s border with Greece.

The surprising part is that Turkey is teaming up with Russia despite
their differences over the Syrian conflict. Clearly, Turkey is
asserting its independent foreign policies by refusing to adopt the
Western sanctions against Russia. Moscow appreciates that under Prime
Minister Recep Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has opted for a
nationalistic, autonomous foreign policy and emancipation from the US.

Of course, the Turkish-Russian strategic understanding has
wide-ranging implications for regional politics. Washington won’t like
what is happening, as this sardonic commentary by RFERL testifies.

The scrapping of the South Stream once again underscores that Putin is
determined to diversify Russia’s energy export markets. The Asian
markets become a top priority for Russian energy exports.

Delhi should draw the appropriate conclusions and seriously explore
how like China, India too could benefit out of Russia’s ‘pivot’ to
Asia. Putin’s forthcoming visit to Delhi on December 11 provides a
fantastic opportunity to bring about a quantum leap in the energy
cooperation between the two countries.

Conclusions

Putin is taking a lot of Pain.

read more


The Russian Ruble has been crushed, the Russian Central Bank has dropped a $100b defending the currency.
Law & Politics


The Russian Ruble has been crushed, the Russian Central Bank has
dropped a $100b defending the currency.

This is a very 21st century ‘Shock and Awe ‘and a bullet has not even
been fired.

read more


Armed fighters stormed a local media house in Chechnya's capital [@ArmedResearch/Twitter]
Law & Politics


At least three police officers have been killed in clashes with
fighters who attacked a traffic post in the Chechen capital Grozny and
then stormed a building housing local media, Russian officials said.

Russia's RIA Novosti state news agency, quoting a regional law
enforcement source, said  several police officers were also wounded in
Thursday’s attack.

"There are unconfirmed reports that the attacks were carried by
Islamist fighters," Al Jazeera's Peter Charp reported from Moscow.

The latest skirmishes in volatile Chechnya will be seen as a major
affront to President Vladimir Putin who is set to deliver his annual
state of the nation address later in the day.

Conclusions

The Periphery is the Chinese and the Russian Achilles Heel.

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27 Aug 2013 Leaked transcripts of a closed-door meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan shed an extraordinary light on the hard-nosed Realpolitik of the two sides.
Law & Politics


Prince Bandar, head of Saudi intelligence, allegedly confronted the
Kremlin with a mix of inducements and threats in a bid to break the
deadlock over Syria. “Let us examine how to put together a unified
Russian-Saudi strategy on the subject of oil. The aim is to agree on
the price of oil and production quantities that keep the price stable
in global oil markets,” he said at the four-hour meeting with Mr
Putin. They met at Mr Putin’s dacha outside Moscow three weeks ago.

The details of the talks were first leaked to the Russian press. A
more detailed version has since appeared in the Lebanese newspaper
As-Safir, which has Hezbollah links and is hostile to the Saudis.

As-Safir said Prince Bandar pledged to safeguard Russia’s naval base
in Syria if the Assad regime is toppled, but he also hinted at Chechen
terrorist attacks on Russia’s Winter Olympics in Sochi if there is no
accord. “I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics
next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games
are controlled by us,” he allegedly said.

Prince Bandar went on to say that Chechens operating in Syria were a
pressure tool that could be switched on an off. “These groups do not
scare us. We use them in the face of the Syrian regime but they will
have no role in Syria’s political future.”

Prince Bandar and Vladimir Putin
http://nimg.sulekha.com/others/original700/2008-9-4-13-40-0-fd24d725ea9a446f9c1b67619e6035eb-fd24d725ea9a446f9c1b67619e6035eb-2.jpg

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OUR INTERVIEW WITH SYRIAN PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD @ParisMatch © Paris Match
Law & Politics


Are the coalition strikes helping you?

Bashar al-Assad:  You can’t end terrorism with aerial strikes.  Troops
on the ground that know the land and can react are essential.  That is
why there haven’t been any tangible results in the two months of
strikes led by the coalition.  It isn’t true that the strikes are
helpful.  They would of course have helped had they been serious and
efficient.  We are running the ground battles against Daech, and we
have noticed no change, especially with Turkey providing direct
support to these regions.

Are you afraid to suffer the same demise as Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi?

Bashar al-Assad: The captain doesn’t think about death, or life, he
thinks about saving his ship.  If he thinks about sinking, everyone
will die.  I am doing my best to save the country.  But I would like
to emphasize one thing.  My goal has never been to remain President,
neither before, during, or after the crisis.  Regardless what happens,
we as Syrians will never allow our country to become a toy in Western
hands.  It is a fundamental principle for us.

Paris Match: François Hollande continues to refer to you as an
adversary.  Do you think contact can ever be reestablished?

Bashar al-Assad: It is not a question of personal relations.  As a
matter of fact, I don’t even know him.  It is about relations between
states and institutions, and the interests of the two nations.  We
will work with any French dignitary or government in our common
interests.  But the current administration is working against the
interest of our people and that of the French people.  I am neither a
personal enemy or rival of Hollande.  I think that Daech is his rival,
their popularity is very much the same.

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Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus on November 28th © Paris Match
Law & Politics


Occupy Central founder Benny Tai (centre), a law professor at the
University of Hong Kong, along with co-founders Chan Kin-man (left), a
professor of sociology at Chinese University and Reverend Chu
Yiu-ming, hold a news conference on their voluntary surrender to the
police in Hong Kong.
http://media.themalaysianinsider.com/assets/uploads/articles/occupy-central-reuters-120214.jpg.JPG

Conclusions

Surrendered.

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Does the stuff you post on the internet make you look like a terrorist? Is the rhythm of your typing sending the wrong signals?
Law & Politics


With ever-more sophisticated equipment, the security services can be
very specific about who they track. But that still leaves room for
error.

Should our future robot overlords decide to write a history of how
they overcame their human masters, late 2014 will be a key date in the
timeline. Last week, an official report from the parliamentary
intelligence and security committee handed over responsibility for the
UK’s fight against terrorism, or at least part of it, to Facebook’s
algorithms – the automated scripts that (among other things) look at
your posts and your networks to suggest content you will like, people
you might know and things you might buy.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2306 The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.2307 per euro
after appreciating to $1.2301 yesterday, the strongest since August
2012.
Dollar Index 88.97
Japan Yen 119.90 The dollar strengthened to within 0.1 percent of 120
yen, the highest since July 2007
Swiss Franc 0.9778
Pound 1.5684
Aussie 0.8370 The Aussie dropped to a four-year low after Goldman
Sachs Australia Chief Economist Tim Toohey predicted it will slide to
83 cents in three months and 79 U.S. cents in the next year.
India Rupee 61.949
South Korea Won 1115.30
Brazil Real 2.5523
Egypt Pound 7.1486
South Africa Rand 11.2105

The yen has slumped 3.8 percent in the past month, the worst performer
of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro declined 0.1 percent, while the
dollar strengthened 2.1 percent.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index rose 0.4 percentage
point yesterday to 9.48 percentage points, the highest level since
September 2013.

read more


Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 88.97 [Target 100.00 2015]
World Currencies


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against 10 trading partners, gained 0.1 percent to 1,114.78, set for
the highest close since March 2009. The gauge has increased 9.4
percent this year, heading for the best annual gain since Bloomberg
started compiling the data in 2004.

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This plan to undercut oil was exquisitely constructed and executed. #Oil and Currency Warfare
Commodities


The Russian Ruble has been crushed, the Russian Central Bank has
dropped a $100b defending the currency.

read more



Crude Oil 1 Month Chart INO 67.92 [My Target remains 60.00 and then 50.00]
Commodities


Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North
Dakota, prices are already there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html

Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota
fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of
Plains All American (PAA) Pipeline LP. That’s down 47 percent from
this year’s peak in June, and 29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for
Brent, the global benchmark.

13-OCT-2014 The conditions [and I will explain them momentarily] are
optimal for a complete wash-out [a ‘blow-off bottom’ was more earthy
description in my time] down as far as $50 a barrel.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1310.pdf

Markets overshoot, crude oil does it big time and any and every model
needs to consider such a price outcome.

Gold 6 month INO 1207.30
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Mystery Surrounds NASA's Secret Mission in Africa @ABC
Africa


A NASA official recently confirmed that one of the agency’s aircraft
had been spotted on an American military airstrip in eastern Africa a
few weeks ago, but like a series of U.S. military officials, declined
to say what the space agency’s high-tech bird was doing there.

“I really can’t give you any of the details,” Jim Alexander, a NASA
official with the WB-57 High Altitude Research Program, told ABC News.
“You know, the airplane was there, you see it in the picture. But I
really can’t tell you what it was for.”

The broad-winged white plane belonging to the agency best known for
putting a man on the moon was photographed by the satellite company
Digital Globe back in September sitting next to some tilt-rotor
aircraft at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, a development reported by the
military blog War Is Boring last month.

A NASA website that tracks the agency’s three WB-57s shows that one of
its planes, number 926, was on a “foreign deployment” from July to
November this year. A NASA handbook for the WB-57 posted online lists
14 international deployment sites for the aircraft around the world,
but the American base near Djibouti isn’t one of them.

The Pentagon declined to answer any questions about “a NASA aircraft
in Djibouti” and a spokesperson for the Air Force Space Command, which
has a closer relationship with NASA, said they wouldn’t have
operational knowledge of a mission on the continent. AFRICOM, the U.S.
military’s Africa Command, would only say that “aircraft from a
variety of agencies and nations perform diverse missions from Camp
Lemonnier in support of U.S. and allied military peace and security
operations in the region, which spans East Africa and the Mideast.”

“As a matter of policy, we do not discuss details of operations,”
AFRICOM public affairs officer Tom Saunders told ABC News by email.

NASA’s Alexander said that their WB-57 aircraft “does a lot of work
with a variety of different customers from the government, from
industry, from academia,” including the Defense Department. “Anybody
who needs to fly something high,” he said.

Ethiopia eyes 10-year bond debut at 6.75% yield @FastFT
http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/245511

Bankers are starting to take orders for Ethiopia's inaugural
international bond sale, and the initial price whispers on the 10-year
deal are for a yield of around 6.75 per cent.

That compares to Russia's current dollar 10-year bond yield of just
over 6 per cent, underscoring the demand for the slew of African bond
debutantes that have come to the market in recent years.

@africaceoforum Have a look on Africa's biggest partners ! #Trade
#ODA #FDI @IMFNews @OECD @UNCTAD
https://twitter.com/africaceoforum/status/540132878080700416/photo/1

President Robert Mugabe has accused "a woman" in his party of a plot
to unseat him and work with the opposition in a coalition government,
state media reported on Wednesday
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/03/us-zimbabwe-mugabe-idUSKCN0JH0GG20141203

Mujuru, a battle-hardened guerrilla nicknamed "Spill Blood", has faced
accusations from Mugabe's wife Grace and state-owned media of
corruption and plotting to kill Mugabe in what analysts say is a smear
campaign to end her immediate political career.

"We are experiencing it for the first time in ZANU-PF, and for that
matter it's a woman who is saying, 'I want to take over that seat',"
Mugabe said in remarks carried by the government mouthpiece, The
Herald.

"We know the discussions that have been done, 'Oh, we will link up
with the MDC and America and Britain will pour lots of money.' You
know, that simplistic thinking," Mugabe added, questioning whether
Mujuru could handle the pressures of his job.

Conclusions

read more



10-NOV-2014 Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa


Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about
acceleration, momentum and speed.

Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per
cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank,
and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their
muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very
connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a
‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a
demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium
between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

Nestle Sees Unrest Adding to Pressures on West Africa Business
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-02/nestle-sees-unrest-adding-to-pressures-on-west-africa-business.html

Militant insurgencies across West Africa are weighing on Nestle SA
(NESN)’s business in the region, adding to the pressures of currency
depreciation, high inflation and the Ebola outbreak, the food maker’s
regional head said.

Islamist rebellions in some countries are undermining consumer
confidence, Nandu Nandkishore, Nestle’s 56-year-old head of Asia,
Africa and Oceania, said in a Nov. 28 interview at the Swiss company’s
factory in Agbara, southwest Nigeria. Militants linked to Al-Qaeda
have stepped up attacks against United Nations’ peacekeepers and
French soldiers in northern Mali this year, while Nigeria’s government
is struggling to contain a rebellion by Boko Haram.

“The climate of fear immediately affects trade, which then slows down
or tends to de-stock significantly and then affects consumers going
out to shop,” Nandkishore said.

Conditions from Africa to Asia are deteriorating for Nestle, which has
forecast a challenging fourth quarter after nine-month sales missed
estimates. The Vevey, Switzerland-based company is struggling to lift
prices in Europe, and wrestling a decline in its frozen-food business
in North America.

In West Africa, currency weakness and high inflation will probably
persist into 2015, Nandkishore said. The currencies of Nigeria and
Ghana, the two largest economies in the region, are Africa’s worst
performers this year against the dollar, while Ghana’s inflation rate
accelerated to 16.9 percent in October.

“The inflation is because of currency devaluation and particularly
when you have oil prices dropping,” he said.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.78% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

49,857.18 +265.75 +0.54%

Goldman Urges South Africa Action on ‘Self-Inflicted’ Wounds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/goldman-sachs-urges-south-africa-to-fix-self-inflicted-wounds.html

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) sees slowing growth in South Africa as a
partly “self-inflicted” wound, which could be arrested through swift
government action, said Colin Coleman, a partner at the bank.

Labor conflicts, energy supply disruptions and poor governance in the
public sector are the “key” wounds that could be remedied, Coleman,
head of sub-Saharan Africa for New York-based Goldman Sachs, said in a
speech in Cape Town today.

Unemployment in the country, as assessed by the broadest measure, has
worsened to 35.8 percent in the third quarter from 34.9 percent a year
earlier, he said. State-owned companies, including Eskom SOC Holdings
Ltd. and South African Airways require “radical surgery” to overcome
their consistent failure to deliver, according to Coleman.

“The lower middle class has suffered a credit crunch, the unemployed
have less hope and opportunities, and the labor unions are at war with
each other,” he said at the Africa Private Equity and Venture Capital
Conference.

South Africa’s economy is forecast to grow this year at the slowest
pace since 2009 because of disruptions caused by worker strikes and
frequent power shortages. The trade deficit widened to the most in at
least four years in October.

Coleman’s comments in South Africa’s second-largest city echo remarks
by Johann Rupert, the billionaire chairman of Cie. Financiere
Richemont SA and Remgro Ltd. (REM), who berated the government for
failing to address corruption and electricity blackouts in a speech on
Nov. 25.

While companies in Africa’s biggest economy after Nigeria remain
resilient, the government needs to be “putting the right people with
the right plan and the skills needed to execute well, based on merit
alone” in the appropriate jobs, Coleman, 52, said.

An inspection of 450 state entities by the nation’s auditor-general
uncovered 30.8 billion rand ($2.8 billion) in irregular, unauthorized
or wasteful spending in the 12 months through March last year from 30
billion rand the year before. The economy is projected to expand 1.45
percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2015, according to analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg.

The rand weakened 0.6 percent to 11.1866 per dollar by 1:06 p.m. in
Johannesburg, extending its decline this year to 6.6 percent.

Change “will take a ‘Team South Africa’ approach with the co-operation
and engagement of a national effort to put the country to work, to
collaborate for growth and development and setting aside narrow
interest for the greater national interest,” Coleman said.

read more



Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.2226 [Target 12.00]
Africa


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1518
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +37.186% 2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,304.98 +117.98 +1.28%

Nigeria's foreign reserves fall to six-month low of $36.7 bln
http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0JH1LO20141203

Nigeria's foreign reserves fell to a six-month low of $36.7 billion by
Dec. 1, down 4.5 percent from the previous month as the central bank
stepped up its defence of the naira currency, figures on the bank's
website showed.

The reserves of Africa's biggest economy and top oil producer stood at
the same level as in June this year and were down from $38.45 billion
on Nov. 2, the data showed on Wednesday.

The naira has fallen 11.3 percent against the dollar this year,
including an 8 percent one-off devaluation by the central bank last
week, as global oil prices plunged.

The naira ended up about 0.6 percent at 179.90 against the dollar from
Tuesday's close of 181 naira. It firmed almost four percent on the
previous day after the central bank intervened to help the currency up
from another record intraday low.

The naira was hovering around 183.15 naira to the dollar for almost
three hours before Wednesday's intervention.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -19.535% 2014 [20 month lows]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

33,255.67 -295.06 -0.88%

read more




24-NOV-2014 Nigeria In The Eye Of The Storm
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +6.57% 2014 3 1/2 month highs
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,286.36 +4.84 +0.21%

The African Genome Variation Project shapes medical genetics in Africa
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13997.html

Scientists have completed a comprehensive study of genetic
diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30318291

US Warns South Sudan Minister About Sanctions
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-warns-south-sudan-minister-sanctions-27349955

The U.S. on Wednesday warned South Sudan's foreign minister that
United Nations sanctions could be the punishment for people who stand
in the way of that country achieving peace after a year of conflict.

At a meeting between Barnaba Benjamin and U.N. Ambassador Samantha
Power, a deputy ambassador, David Pressman, emphasized that the U.S.
is working on a Security Council draft resolution that would authorize
sanctions against individuals who threaten South Sudan's peace and
security, a U.S. official said.

The resolution is meant to pressure President Salva Kiir and former
vice president Riek Machar to reach a peace agreement after multiple
cease-fires have failed. Fighting between their supporters has killed
thousands in the oil-rich East African country, and 1.9 million have
fled. About 100,000 people remain camped at nine U.N. peacekeeping
bases across the country in an effort to escape the violence.

The U.S. official spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting
was private.

read more



Interview with @RamahNyang @CCTVNewsAfrica East Africa Oil and Gas Sector @YouTube
Kenyan Economy


@alykhansatchu Thanks @Ramah_Nyang @cctvnewsafrica for the
Interview about Oil and the new Normal
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/538318010113871873

“From a propaganda standpoint, I suspect that Shabab is trying to play
the role of a Robin Hood, swooping in at random to avenge the wrongs
done to the Muslim communities” Bronwyn Bruton, deputy director of the
Africa Center of the Atlantic Council in Washington.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/03/world/africa/mandera-kenya-quarry-shabab-killing.html?ref=africa

The goal of the Shabab, she said, is “to draw down indiscriminate fire
on the Muslim population” and to goad the Kenyan security forces into
counterproductive dragnets and purges.

In Kenya, the Shabab have now become the enemy everyone fears.

The Star (Nairobi) 7 OCTOBER 2014 Kenya: Senior Police Ferried Guns to
Mpeketoni - IPOA Report
http://allafrica.com/stories/201410070614.html

A senior Anti-Terrorism Police Unit officer at the Coast helped al
Shabaab terrorists smuggle the weapons from Somalia that were used in
the Mpeketoni massacre, the Independent Policing Oversight Authority
report on the June attack has revealed.

However, despite receiving reports on the activities of the ATPU
officer and the impending Mpeketoni attack from the National
Intelligence Service as early as May 2014, police failed to act and
instead engaged in apportioning blame.

Police officers on the ground received the intelligence and even held
a meeting in Mpeketoni, but never bothered to conduct an operation to
seize the weapons which were to be later used in the June 16, 2014,
night attack in which over 67 people were killed.

"Both the civilian leadership and senior police officers reported
deep-rooted differences between each other. This information was
further corroborated by senior police officers who described the bad
blood among the county leadership," the report says.

One of the senior security officials works closely with the county
government at the expense of the national government and was too
deeply involved in local politics and land-related disputes. He even
denied the then ongoing recruitment and radicalisation of Muslim
youths into terrorists groups, therefore failing to address the matter
despite overwhelming evidence.

The IPOA report says that there was a breakdown in the command
structure during the Mpeketoni attack response because senior
commanders on the ground could not directly issue operational orders
to Administration Police officers and specialised units such as the
General Service Unit because these squads have to obtain approval from
the national headquarters before embarking on any operations.

The report reveals that the operations to pursue the attackers
appeared to be disjointed, with the AP Rapid Deployment Unit based at
its Mkunumbi base, which is about 16km from Mpeketoni, arriving eight
hours later, at 04:45 hours, while GSU, who were 30km away, arrived
first, at 03:30 hours, after the firing had stopped.

The report says that whilst the operation to pursue the attackers was
going on, most officers who came in as reinforcements were more
interested in allowances than pursuing the attackers.

The police station was understaffed and lacked communication
equipment, vehicles and guns to effectively repulse the attackers,
according to the report. Of the 25 police officers at Mpeketoni police
station, only 17 were available while two were on sick leave, two
attending courses and two on leave.

But even some of the 17 were assigned to non-core functions, including
two attached to KCB Bank, two to Equity Bank, three on prisoner
escort, three on night guard duty, three on night patrol and two at
the report office.

The AP divisional base, with 28 officers, was no different, with two
guarding Cooperative Bank, two stationed at the teachers' sacco, three
on night patrol, one radio operator, two on day sentry duties, three
night guards and four on standby.

Police officers in Mpeketoni did not have any communication equipment
and depended on their mobile phones at their own cost, while they had
to rely on the county government and well wishers for fuel.

IPOA blames Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo for failing to
harmonise operations in the command structure and urged him to appoint
a single NPS county commander in all 47 counties to coordinate
policing by overseeing all police officers and units.

"Therefore, the IG should appoint a single NPS County Commander in all
the 47 counties to coordinate effective policing by overseeing all
police officers and units, be they PAS, KPS, DCI or GSU, ensuring
there is no doubt as regards command at all levels. It is therefore
IPOA's binding recommendation that the Inspector General of the
National Police Service should immediately institute measures to put
in place a seamless structure of the Service at all levels. The
Inspector General of National Police Service should furnish IPOA with
a report on the measures instated within ninety days," the IPOA
chairman said.

The arrival after the attacks of many senior police officers from the
national headquarters and senior government officials, despite being
commendable and a morale booster, distracted the effective and
efficient planning of follow-up operations.

"The IPOA team was informed that, at one point, the operation was
taken over by senior commanders from the regional and national HQs and
the operational commanders were left to watch," the report says.

A blame game by senior commanders from Nairobi accused commanders on
the ground of failure to prevent the attack while the commanders
blamed each other for the delayed response.

Conclusions

This is an accurate report, I think.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2014
 
 
 
 
 
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