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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 06th of January 2015
 
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MindSpeak with Aaron Rimbui @AaronRimbui

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qc10Z1zdO8&feature=youtu.be

Macro Thoughts

The Shark Dubai Mall Aquarium

http://www.twitpic.com/e1n55b

Home Thoughts

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Saudi border guards killed in attack @AJEnglish
Law & Politics


Attackers have killed two Saudi Arabian border guards and injured
another near the country's border with Iraq in a shooting and suicide
assault, the Saudi Interior Ministry said.

The attackers opened fire on a border patrol near the city of Arar on
early on Monday, the ministry said.

When security officers responded, one of the two attackers was
captured and detonated an explosives belt, the ministry added in a
brief statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.

It said the other attacker was killed by security forces.

Conclusions


Saudi Arabia is very brittle at this time.

read more



The depiction of Assad by credible witnesses is quite different.
Law & Politics


Speaking at a private meeting held at the Veritatis Splendor Diocesan
Center in Bologna, Italy last October, Msgr. Giuseppe Nazzaro, former
apostolic visitor to Aleppo and former Custodian of the Holy Land, had
this to say:

[Assad] opened the country up to foreign trade, to tourism within the
country and from abroad, to freedom of movement and of education for
both men and women. Before the protests started, the number of women
in the professional world had been constantly increasing, the
university was open to all, and there was no discrimination on the
basis of sex. The country was at peace, prosperity was on the rise,
and human rights were respected. A common home and fatherland to many
ethnicities and 23 different religious groups, Syria has always been a
place where all were free to believe and live out their creed, all
relationships were characterized by mutual respect. The freedom that
is purportedly being brought to us by the rebels is precisely what
this rebellion has taken away from us.

As it was observed in Britain’s Daily Telegraph, If the  insurgents
win the war, there will be no Christian churches in Syria any more
(just as there aren’t in Saudi Arabia at the moment). Life will be
similarly terrible for many of the ordinary Muslims who make up the
great majority of the population.

read more




10 Wars to Watch in 2015 Foreign Policy
Law & Politics


On a global level, increasing geopolitical competition appears, for
the moment at least, to be leading to a less controlled, less
predictable world. This is most obvious, of course, with regard to the
relationship between Russia and the West

1. Syria, Iraq, and the Islamic State
2. Ukraine
3. South Sudan South Sudan is entering its second year of a brutal
civil war that, for the moment, looks set to grind on.
4. Nigeria Nigeria faces a perfect storm in 2015. First, a brutal
insurgency by the Islamist group Boko Haram continues to wrack parts
of the north, especially the impoverished northeast. The group seized
more territory this summer, and its attacks have since spread to
neighboring Cameroon and could spill over into Niger and Chad. Now in
its fifth year and showing no sign of abating, the conflict has left
over 13,000 dead and displaced some 800,000 people.
Second, the worldwide drop in oil prices has weakened the government,
which depends on sales of crude for roughly 70 percent of its income.
5. Somalia While combined offensives by African Union forces and the
Somali army have resulted in impressive gains against al-Shabab, the
Somali Federal Government is still struggling to actually govern.
6. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) The past year has dashed many of
the hopes raised by progress in the DRC in 2013.
7. Afghanistan
8. Yemen
9. Libya and the Sahel Libya’s transition has also derailed, and the
ensuing chaos is spilling across its borders.
10. Venezuela Compared with many of the others listed, Venezuela is no
war zone.

read more



These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2015 Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer 7:30 AM ET @Time
Law & Politics


1. The politics of Europe
2. Russia
Sanctions and lower oil prices have weakened Russia enough to
infuriate President Vladimir Putin, but not enough to restrain his
actions. Moscow will continue to put pressure on Ukraine, and as a
result, U.S. and European sanctions will tighten. As Russia’s economy
sags, Putin’s approval ratings will depend increasingly on his
willingness to confront the West. Western companies and investors are
likely targets—on the ground and in cyberspace.
3. The effects of China slowdown
China’s economic growth will slow in 2015, but it’s all part of Xi’s
plan. His historically ambitious economic reform efforts depend on
transitioning his country to a consumer-driven economic model that
will demand levels of growth that are lower, but more sustainable. The
continuing slowdown should have little impact inside China. But
countries like Brazil, Australia, Indonesia and Thailand, whose
economies have come to depend on booming trade with a commodity-hungry
China, will feel the pain.
4. The weaponization of finance
For the moment, the American public has had enough of wars and
occupations, but the Obama administration still wants to exert
significant influence around the globe. That’s why Washington is
weaponizing finance on a new scale. The U.S. is using carrots (access
to capital markets) and sticks (varied types of sanctions) as tools of
coercive diplomacy. The advantages are considerable, but there is a
risk that this strategy will damage U.S. companies caught in the
crossfire between Washington and targeted states. Transatlantic
relations could suffer for the same reason.
5. ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria
ISIS faces military setbacks in Iraq and Syria, but its ideological
reach will spread throughout the Middle East and North Africa in 2015.
It will grow organically by setting up new units in Yemen, Jordan, and
Saudi Arabia, and it will inspire other jihadist organizations to join
its ranks—Ansar Bayt al Maqdas in Egypt and Islamists in Libya have
already pledged allegiance to ISIS. As the militant group’s influence
grows, the risk to Sunni states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates and Egypt will rise.
6. Weak incumbents
Feeble political leaders, many of whom barely won reelection last
year, will become a major theme in 2015. Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff,
Colombia’s Juan Manuel Santos, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma, Nigeria’s
Goodluck Jonathan and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will each face
determined opposition and formidable obstacles as they try to enact
their political agendas.
7. The rise of strategic sectors
Global businesses in 2015 will increasingly depend on risk-averse
governments that are more focused on political stability than on
economic growth, supporting companies that operate in harmony with
their political goals and punishing those that don’t. We’ll see this
trend in emerging markets, where the state already plays a more
significant role in the economy, as well as in rogue states searching
for weapons to fight more powerful governments. But we’ll also see it
in the U.S., where national security priorities have inflated the
military industrial complex, which now includes technology,
telecommunications and financial companies.
8. Saudi Arabia vs Iran
The rivalry between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is the engine
of conflict in the Middle East. Given the growing reluctance of
Washington and other outside powers to intervene in the region,
increasingly complex domestic politics within these two countries and
rising anxiety about the ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear
program, we can expect Tehran and Riyadh to use proxies to fuel
trouble in more Middle Eastern countries than ever in 2015.
9. Taiwan/China
Relations between China and Taiwan will deteriorate sharply in 2015
following the opposition Democratic Progressive Party’s landslide
victory over the ruling Nationalist Party in local elections this past
November. If China decides that its strategy of economic engagement
with Taiwan has failed to advance its ultimate goal of reunification,
Beijing might well backtrack on existing trade and investment deals
and significantly harden its rhetoric. The move would surely provoke
public hostility in Taiwan and inject even more anti-mainland
sentiment into the island’s politics. Any U.S. comment on relations
between China and Taiwan would quickly increase resentment between
Beijing and Washington.
10. Turkey Lower oil prices have helped, but President Erdogan has
used election victories in 2014 to try to sideline his political
enemies—of which there are many—while remaking the country’s political
system to tighten his hold on power. But he’s unlikely to win the
authority he wants this year, creating more disputes with his prime
minister, weakening policy coherence and worsening political
unpredictability. Given the instability near Turkey’s borders, where
the war against ISIS rages, that’s bad news. Refugees from Syria and
Iraq are bringing more radicalism into the country and adding to
economic hardship.

Paradoxically, the US strategy toward Russia and China is itself
predicated on the virtual certainty that the latter two can never form
an axis in the international system.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/12/22/russia-china-neither-allies-nor-rivals/

read more



@EconBizFin Economic growth in 2015
International Trade


The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 331.34 points, or 1.86
percent, to 17,501.65, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 37.62 points, or 1.83
percent, to 2,020.58 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 74.24
points, or 1.57 percent, to 4,652.57.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/06/us-markets-stocks-usa-idINKBN0KE0WF20150106

S&P 500 had its worst day in almost three months on Monday, with
energy shares leading the decline as global economic concerns were
compounded by swooning oil prices.

The S&P closed off 1.8 percent in its first four-day losing streak
since December 2013 and its biggest drop since Oct. 9. It fell as much
as 1.99 percent in the session while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
tumbled as much as 2 percent.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1947 The euro dropped 0.6 percent to $1.1933 as of 5 p.m. in
New York after sliding to $1.1864, the least since March 2006.
Dollar Index 91.29 The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BCOM), which
tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, rose 0.2 percent to
1,143.40 and touched 1,146.49, the highest in data going back to 2005.
Japan Yen 119.19 The yen rose against all of its 16 major counterparts
as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) slid 0.2 percent to 17,408.71 on
the first day of 2015 trading. The currency will probably stabilize
after declining 12 percent against the dollar last year, Citigroup’s
Englander said.
Swiss Franc 1.0058
Pound 1.5261 Sterling fell as much as 1 percent to $1.5176, the lowest
since August 2013, before closing 0.5 percent weaker at $1.5250.
Aussie 0.8129
India Rupee 63.375
South Korea Won 1102.57
Brazil Real 2.7067
Egypt Pound 7.1418
South Africa Rand 11.6896

The pound has depreciated 0.5 percent in the past week among 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The euro fell 0.3 percent, while the dollar gained 1.8
percent and the yen rose 1.7 percent.

The ruble of Russia, the world’s largest energy exporter, decreased
8.7 percent to 60.85 per dollar in Moscow in its first day of trading
of 2015, after a 46 percent decline last year, when it reached a
record-low 80.10.

read more



Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1947 [Target 1.0000]
World Currencies


Economic data due Jan. 7 was forecast by economists in a Bloomberg
survey to show euro-area consumer prices dropped 0.1 percent in
December from a year earlier, the first decline since 2009.

read more


SNB’s Main Scenario Is for Greece to Remain in Euro, Jordan Says
World Currencies


Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said he doesn’t expect
Greece to leave the euro area and warned of risks associated with such
a move.

“It’s not in our base scenario,” he told Swiss television SRF in an
interview today. “But you shouldn’t underestimate the risks, should
there be an exit, both for the euro area and especially for Greece
itself.”

The interview is Jordan’s first since the SNB announced on Dec. 18
that it would impose a negative deposit rate to stave off capital
inflows and reinforce its three-year-old minimum exchange rate of 1.20
per euro. The franc hit its strongest since 2012 last month amid a
weakening of the Russian economy and the prospect of more euro-area
stimulus by the European Central Bank.

read more



Kurobuta @Richardvines
World Currencies


Scott Hallsworth was head chef at Nobu before opening Kurobuta, where
he seeks to inject a little rock 'n' roll into the mix. Izakaya pubs
in Japan are the inspiration, serving small plates of food to
accompany drinks. The dishes are imaginative and the cooking is
assured. The service is exceptionally friendly, though you might have
trouble hearing much over the aforementioned music. 17-20 Kendal
Street, W2 2AW; +44-20-3475-4158

read more


@Samsung Says Every Product It Sells Will Be Internet-Connected by 2017 @SamsungMobileKe @Changarampatt
International Trade


All Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) products will be Internet-ready
within five years as Asia’s biggest consumer-electronics company
focuses on the growing businesses of smart homes and smart cars.

The world’s biggest maker of TVs will only sell Web-connected sets by
2017, Co-Chief Executive Officer Yoon Boo Keun said at the Consumer
Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Samsung also will invest more than $100
million in developers this year to accelerate its plans, Yoon said.

Samsung is reinventing itself as a purveyor of Internet-connected
appliances and wearable devices to grab share of a market that may be
worth $7.1 trillion by 2020. The changes come as the controlling Lee
family shifts to a new generation of leadership and as earnings plunge
because Galaxy smartphones are being squeezed by devices from Apple
Inc. (AAPL) and low-cost Chinese competitors.

“The Internet of Things has the potential to transform our society,
economy and how we live our lives,” Yoon said. “It is our job to pull
together -- as an industry, and across different sectors -- to make
true on the promise.”

At the show, Samsung unveiled more curved ultra high definition TVs
and announced a collaboration with 20th Century Fox to provide
content. The company said it would expand its Milk entertainment
services to Internet-connected TVs, and debuted a virtual-reality
video service.

All of Samsung’s Web-connected TVs will use the Tizen operating
system, with the first models going on sale next month.

Yoon forecast a world in which a device will tell you when to watch
your TV, warn you when your house’s plumbing stops working and
constantly monitor your health.

“Each of us will be at the center of our very own technology
universe,” he said during his keynote presentation.

Yoon welcomed several partners to the stage, including Hosain Rahman,
the chief executive officer of Jawbone, a company that specializes in
wearable technology, and Alex Hawkinson, chief executive officer of
SmartThings, an open platform that helps consumers customize their
homes across connected devices.

SmartThings, which Samsung agreed to buy in August 2014, will offer a
subscription service that sends phone alerts whenever there is a
problem at home.

“We’re now compatible with more devices than any other smartphone
platform in the world,” Hawkinson said.

Samsung will extend its efforts to the car after reaching a deal with
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG to install Samsung tablet computers as
touch command screens in some models. The presentation included a
demonstration of how to communicate with a car using a wristwatch.

Samsung last year transferred about 500 engineers from its
mobile-phone division and allocated them largely to the Internet
initiative, people familiar with the matter have said.

Separately, the company’s challenger to Google Inc. (GOOGL)’s Android
software is moving from phones to big-screen TVs as Samsung tries to
get a head start on controlling Internet-connected devices in the
home. Samsung this week unveiled the first sets powered by Tizen
software at CES and said all the Web-connected models it sells this
year will run the operating system.

Sony Corp. today said all its Web-connected TVs this year would use Android.

read more




13-OCT-2014 The conditions [and I will explain them momentarily] are optimal for a complete wash-out [a 'blow-off bottom' was more earthy description in my time] down as far as $50 a barrel.
Commodities


In a situation where there is a net surplus, the price setter can be
those last sales transacted at deep discounts.

The conditions [and I will explain them momentarily] are optimal for a
complete wash-out [a ‘blow-off bottom’ was more earthy description in
my time] down as far as $50 a barrel. Markets overshoot, crude oil
does it big time and any and every model needs to consider such a
price outcome.

read more


WTI Falls Below $50 a Barrel First Time in 5 1/2 Years Bloomberg
Commodities


West Texas Intermediate slid 5 percent in New York while Brent fell
below $55 in London for the first time since May 2009.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped $2.65 to $50.04
a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest
settlement since April 28, 2009. Prices slipped as much as 5.5 percent
to $49.77 during trading. The volume of all futures traded was 11
percent higher than the 100-day average at 2:54 p.m.

Saudi Arabia narrowed discounts in its official February crude selling
prices to buyers in Asia to $1.40 a barrel below the average of Middle
East benchmark Oman and Dubai grades.

The world’s biggest oil exporter offered its Arab Light grade at the
greatest discount in at least 14 years for January. That move was
followed by Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, prompting speculation that Middle
East producers were protecting market share.

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December 1st 2014 This is a very 21st century 'Shock and Awe 'President Obama has been a very subtle, skilled and hard-nosed exponent of currency and now oil warfare. #Oil and #Currency Warfare
Commodities


President Obama while getting creamed in the mid-terms, has been a
very subtle, skilled and hard-nosed exponent of currency and now oil
warfare. This plan to undercut oil was exquisitely constructed and
executed. The Russian Ruble has been crushed, the Russian Central Bank
has dropped a $100b defending the currency. Iran might have got an
extension but the new oil price normal keeps them on the ropes.
Venezuela’s oil income has fallen by 35 per cent and is set to tumble
further.

This is a very 21st century ‘Shock and Awe ‘and a bullet has not even
been fired.

Of course, there is collateral damage. Nigeria has devalued the Naira
and are going to have to de- value further. The naira weakened 7.3 per
cent this month, the most among the 24 African currencies tracked by
Bloomberg and worst month since December 2008.

The Angolan kwanza is at a record low. East African Oil and Gas has
crashed and burned, Tullow Oil PLC has slumped 50.175 per cent in 2014
and Africa Oil has slumped 67.822 per cent. The markets are calling it
and the call is very bearish. The sector is set to be ‘mothballed’.

The oil price collapse marks a major inflexion point.

The global consumer is back.

The value of this stimulus is worth a $1 trillion to the US.

read more


Gold 6 month INO 1204.46 [not buying into this]
Commodities


Copper slid 1.8 percent to close at $6,145 a ton yesterday, the lowest
since June 2010. The price is down 2.1 percent this year following a
14 percent loss last year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/copper-near-four-year-low-as-greece-crisis-fuels-demand-concern.html

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


U.S. charges Texas businessman, vet in Gambia coup bid
Africa


Federal prosecutors on Monday charged a Texas businessman who
allegedly wanted to be the president of Gambia with conspiring with a
former U.S. Army sergeant and others to orchestrate a deadly coup
attempt in the tiny African nation last week.

The handful of coup plotters headed and bankrolled by housing
developer Cherno Njie, 57, of Austin, had expected presidential palace
guards to flee at a shot in the air when they attacked on Dec. 30,
according to a federal complaint.

But guards returned fire, killing one group of attackers, and
sympathetic Gambian soldiers failed to show up as expected. The rest
of the 10 to 12 conspirators fled, their hopes shattered for a
bloodless overthrow of President Yahya Jammeh and a restoration of
democracy, the court document said.

Federal prosecutors in Minnesota charged Njie and Papa Faal, 46, a
former U.S. Army sergeant from Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, with
conspiring to carry out a coup and a weapons violation. Both are U.S.
citizens with ties to Gambia.

The handful of coup plotters headed and bankrolled by housing
developer Cherno Njie, 57, of Austin, had expected presidential palace
guards to flee at a shot in the air when they attacked on Dec. 30,
according to a federal complaint.

But guards returned fire, killing one group of attackers, and
sympathetic Gambian soldiers failed to show up as expected. The rest
of the 10 to 12 conspirators fled, their hopes shattered for a
bloodless overthrow of President Yahya Jammeh and a restoration of
democracy, the court document said.

Federal prosecutors in Minnesota charged Njie and Papa Faal, 46, a
former U.S. Army sergeant from Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, with
conspiring to carry out a coup and a weapons violation. Both are U.S.
citizens with ties to Gambia.

"The United States strongly condemns such conspiracies. With these
serious charges, the United States is committed to holding them fully
responsible for their actions," Attorney General Eric Holder said in a
statement.

Jammeh, who took power in a coup 20 years ago and wields tight control
of the impoverished nation, has said the attack was carried out by
"terrorist groups backed by some foreign powers."

After the coup bid, the United States and the United Nations both
condemned any attempts to seize power.

A U.S. criminal complaint said Njie had planned to serve as leader of
Gambia, an nation of about 1.8 million people and the smallest country
on mainland Africa.

Njie is the president of Songhai Development Co LLC in Austin, which
specializes in multifamily housing developments, including retirement
properties. A Pentagon official said Faal had served a tour in
Afghanistan and left the military in 2012.

The criminal complaint said that Faal, who had not lived in Gambia for
23 years, was approached by other conspirators in August.

Faal told the Federal Bureau of Investigation that all the plotters
were of Gambian descent and most lived in the United States and
Germany.

In the end, only 10 to 12 of the plotters entered Gambia, the first
time they had met in person. The total number of conspirators,
including those who didn't make it to Gambia, was not disclosed. Njie
bankrolled the coup effort and each of the men taking part was given
$4,000 to pay expenses in Gambia.

Faal and two other men in the United States each bought eight M4 and
AKM rifles, and about 30 weapons were shipped to Gambia. The group was
also supplied with body armor, night vision goggles and other
equipment.

The coup plotters allegedly planned to ambush Jammeh on a road, but
decided to attack his palace instead when they found he would be out
of the country after Dec. 26.

Once the palace was seized, Njie would try to persuade the head of the
Gambian army to go along with the coup, the complaint said.

The conspirators expected palace guards to flee after they opened fire
and a mutinous Gambian battalion to support them, according to the
complaint.

But the guard detachment had been reinforced and opened up with heavy
fire instead. Faal said all the members of one of the two attack teams
were killed, and the other team fled.

Faal shed his equipment, crossed into neighboring Senegal and went to
the U.S. Embassy in Dakar, the capital, where he was interviewed by
American officials. He flew back to the United States and was
questioned on his arrival at Washington's Dulles International Airport
by FBI agents.

A Federal Bureau of Investigation search of Faal's Minnesota home
turned up M4 manuals and receipts. Google satellite images of Gambia
were found in a folder with the words "top secret" handwritten on top
and underscored in black ink, the complaint said.

FBI agents who searched Njie's residences in Austin and Lakeway,
Texas, found handwritten documents, a spreadsheet for weapons and
other equipment, and a document outlining transition plans for Gambia,
the complaint said.

FBI agents took Njie into custody at Dulles airport on Saturday. He
appeared in federal court in Baltimore for an initial hearing dressed
in a blue shirt, jeans and sneakers.

"Yes, I do, your honor," Njie replied when asked by U.S. Magistrate
Judge Stephanie Gallagher if he understood the accusations. He will be
transported to Minnesota to face charges. Faal appeared separately at
a Minnesota court on Monday, the U.S. Attorney's Office said.

Government records show that Njie has 42 corporate affiliations,
almost all for apartment complexes and retirement communities.

read more



US wags fingers at 'term-happy' Kabila and Nkurunziza, but is it only playing to the gallery?
Africa


In a December 30, 2014 conference call with journalists covering
Africa, he urged the Burundi government to ensure that upcoming
presidential elections are “consistent with the Arusha accords,
including its provisions regarding term limits”; a veiled message to
its eccentric leader.

The accords, signed in 2000, have been the foundation of Burundi’s
decade long but frail stability, Feingold added. President Pierre
Nkurunziza is yet to state whether he will seek a third term, but
analysts say that is foregone.

In May, Feingold strongly urged Democratic Republic of Congo president
Joseph Kabila to observe the country’s constitution that “provides for
two terms”. Kabila last month questioned the “sound basis on which
non-Congolese people invite themselves to take part in the [election]
debate, however well-intentioned they might be”.

Following the introduction of a progressive investment code, American
companies had sought to become active in Burundi,  originally the
domain of fellow East African Community bloc members, India and China.

But the first would-be US multinational into the country, GPS USA, run
into rapacious corruption headwinds as it sought to take over the
concession of the vital port of Bujumbura. The convoluted case is now
in court, where the firm is suing the government.

The Great Lakes region has provided a rich playing ground for a host
of nation-states—some six African countries were involved in its 1998
conflict. The anarchy has given rise to what celebrated international
theorist Kenneth Waltz termed the security dilemma—where nations seek
to increase their own security without increasing others’ fears.

So the public finger wagging will continue, but in private the tango
goes on. Both Kabila and Nkurunziza will be around in 2017, if they
can position themselves as guarantors of peace in the Great Lakes. In
always on-edge Africa, that is rarely a hard thing to do.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg -3.895% 2015 [got caned 3.41% yesterday]
Africa


47,831.04 -1,687.44 -3.41%

South Africa's benchmark Top-40 index posted its biggest drop since
November 2008 on Monday, shedding 3.9 percent

FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index falls 3.4% by the close Johannesburg,
most since May 2010, as 120 stks drop, 35 gain, 12 unchanged.

DECLINERS * BHP Billiton (BIL SJ) -5.6%, falling for 4th day to lowest
in ~2 1/2yrs; copper falls 3rd day to lowest in >4 yrs * Richemont
(CFR SJ) -4.8%, biggest drop since Nov. 24 * SABMiller (SAB SJ) -4.2%,
most since Aug. 2011 * Sasol (SOL SJ) -6%, most since Dec. 1

ADVANCERS * Gold Fields (GFI SJ) +6.4% to highest since Aug. 2013;
spot gold extends gains ** AngloGold Ashanti (ANG SJ) +4.4% ** Harmony
Gold Mining (HAR SJ) +6.2% to highest level since Oct. 14 * The
Foschini Group (TFG SJ) +1.1%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.6902

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1414

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

In the unofficial market, a trader said the pound was trading at 7.75
to the dollar on Monday, stronger than levels around 7.77 to the
dollar quoted on Sunday.

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +0.9522% 2015 [above 9,000 for 1st time since Dec 30th]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,011.07 +68.42 +0.77%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.06% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

33,943.29 -713.86 -2.06%

24-NOV-2014 ::  Nigeria In The Eye Of The Storm

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2411.pdf

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.9287% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,282.46 -4.86 -0.21%

African Stock Market Performance US Dollar-Adjusted Returns As of
December 31, 2014

http://www.investinginafrica.net/african-stock-markets/african-stock-market-performance/

read more


Base Launches Offer For World Titanium Resources
Kenyan Economy


It was Geoff Tooth [the Australian Ambassador who is missed - he has
returned to HQ in Canberra] who introduced me to Tim Carstens the MD
of Base Resources. Base Resources is the parent company of Base
Titanium. Base Titanium is responsible for the Kwale mineral sands
project — Kenya’s first large-scale mining development.

Carstens was my guest at Mindspeak some 977 days ago see here
http://www.twitpic.com/9g9ujg and over those 977 days, I have had an
opportunity to take the measure of the man. It's certainly been a
roller-coaster ride, with lashings of policy making unpredictability
[you will recall the proposed 35 per cent rule] but through all the
noise and interference, TC delivered a really first class facility and
it needs to be seen to be believed. It's like a bit of the c21st just
landed in Kwale. Base Titanium have been singularly innovative in
their approach to employment. They hire using criteria of
qualification and proximity. Their corporate social investment
programme has had an embedded multiplier.

I remember telling Tim: ''This will be your calling card the world
over.'' But he knew that already.

And if I was the government, I would have handed the man a Kenyan
passport real quick and achieved 'Escape Velocity' for the mining
sector by hitching it to the success of this mineral sands project.

Nine hundred and fifty one days ago, Tim sketched out the prices for
the three main mineral sands, Zircon, Rutile and Ilmenite. See here

Price Forecasts Zircon Rutile Ilmenite Base Resources Tim Carstens
#Kwale Mineral Sands 951 days ago http://www.twitpic.com/9q9cwq

Subsequently, prices have retreated a great deal. The entire commodity
complex took a pounding through 2014. Crude Oil fell out of bed and
the mineral sands was unable to buck the trend and downshifted lower.
The share price of Kenmare, for example, has slumped -84.15 per cent
over 12 months.

And then over the Christmas period, I learnt that Base had launched a
hostile scrip based offer for World Titanium Resources who has a 100
per cent interest in the large undeveloped Ranobe [an advanced-stage
mineral sands developer in Madagascar] project. If the offer is
successful, Base will secure the Toliara sands project in Madagascar
to complement its Kwale project in Kenya.The Base Resources is an
unsolicited and a conditional takeover offer. Under the offer, Base is
offering one fully paid ordinary share in Base for every five fully
paid ordinary shares in World Titanium. Base has set a 40 per cent
minimum acceptance and other conditionalities that include World
Titanium conducting its business in the ordinary course; and - no
“prescribed occurrences” happening. The offer is supported by World
Titanium’s largest institutional shareholder, JP Morgan Asset
Management (UK) Limited who holds 7.7 per cent, while also entering
into a pre-bid acceptance agreement with Base. ''WTR wasn't going
anywhere. A quick look at the press releases in 2014 shows almost no
progress at all, as the company seemed to just release the mandatory
quarterly reports (the most recent corporate presentation is 10 months
old!)'' [Seeking Alpha].

And I thought to myself that's my Man. Tim Carstens has now made an
important move. He is seeking to play a role as a consolidator at a
time when prices are at their lows. Given Base's proven capacity to
execute on the frontier, I think its not only JP Morgan that is going
to be backing Base going forward.

At 0.19 Aussie Dollar a share, Investors need to hitch a ride.

read more


#Mindspeak The Post Show with the Australia High Commissioner @GeoffTooth and Tim Carstens 977 days ago
Kenyan Economy


Price Forecasts Zircon Rutile Ilmenite Base Resources Tim Carstens
#Kwale Mineral Sands 951 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/9q9cwq

Tim Carstens Base Titanium #Kwale Mineral Sands 950 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/9q75fh

Stockbrokers wash their hands of capital gains tax

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Stockbrokers-Capital-Gains-Tax/-/996/2579348/-/d7uqaqz/-/index.html

Speaking to the Nation by phone, Chief Executive of the Kenya
Association of Stockbrokers and Investment Banks Willie Njoroge said
there is no provision in law that obliges or allows them to collect
the tax.

“There is a big misunderstanding in the market that it is the
stockbrokers who should be remitting this money. The truth of the
matter is that the investor is actually the one supposed to file the
returns,” said Mr Njoroge.

Kenya Revenue Authority spokesperson Maureen Njongo said the taxman
will issue a status update regarding the implementation of the tax in
due course.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 90.80

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.442% 2014

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

162.17 -1.07 -0.66%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.4486% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,089.71 -27.72 -0.54%

read more







 
 
N.S.E Today


International markets are transfixed by an Oil Price in Free Fall. Oil Traded with a $48.00 handle at Nymex today.
The Dollar is also pressing ahead and this move could become plain violent.
Global Equity Markets have been on the backfoot.
Petro-Economy Equity Markets are being pounded.
The Nigerian All Share is down -6.01% in 2015. 
The Nairobi All Share shaved off 0.31 points to close at 161.86.
The Nairobi NSE20 diverged and traded 8.78 points higher.
Equity turnover picked up speed to clock 533.364m.
There were 20 Winners and 23 Losers today



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom ticked 1.0676% lower to close at 13.90 and was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange with 11.81m shares worth 164.248m. Safaricom will emerge from this period of corrective trading to challenge its All Time High Closing High of 15.00 reached on the 9th of last month. 

Kenya Airways firmed 1.69% to close at 9.05 and traded 82,700 shares with Buyers for 3x that Volume at the finish Line. Kenya Airways has badly lagged a world-wide Airline Stocks Rally. As Oil Price tanked Airline stocks soared. Last time around Fuel was responsible for 37% of Kenya Airways's direct costs. The Issue capping the Price and a run higher might be around the Maturity Profile of the Fuel Hedge Book and I have not good visibility on that Structure and duration profile. 



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank eased 0.88% to close at 56.00 and traded 986,800 shares worth 55.285m. Kenya Commercial Bank is 6.666% below a record closing High of 60.00 reached last year and will surely rally through that Level ahead of its Full Year Earnings Release. 
Barclays Bank eased 0.303% to close at 16.40 and traded 1.079m shares. 

Centum firmed 1.574% to close at 64.50 and traded 563,100 shares. Some big ticked ''Bed and Breakfast'' trades were done at the end of last year which probably suppressed the Price and the price is rebounding from that. 

BRITAM EA announced pre-market opening the acquisition of 57.27m shares in HFCK was completed on 31st Dec 2014. The Weighted average price was 47.70. BRITAM EA closed unchanged at 29.00 and traded 618,400 shares worth 17.931m. 

BRITAM EA HFCK Announcement here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTk%3D



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL rebounded 1.32% to close at 307.00 and traded 264,100 shares with 2 Buyers for every Seller underpinning todays bullish price action. EABL is a tight ship under the stewardship of Charles Ireland and with Senator a blip on the Earnings Radar, I expect EABL to outperform in 2015. 

KPLC surged 4.666% to close at 15.70 and has now surged +10.175% over 2 sessions in a powerful move higher. KPLC traded 50,700 shares with Buyers for 10x that traded volume at the Finish Line. 
KenGen traded 3.045% lower to close at 9.55 and has retreated 5.911% over the same 2 sessions that KPLC has rallied +10.175%. 

Bamburi Cement traded 713,900 shares worth 99.946m and all at an unchanged 140.00. Bamburi Cement trades on a Trailing P/E of 14.66 and reported a 9% Gain in First Half Turnover but a -27.597% deceleration in H1 Operating Profit. 
ARM Cement improved 0.61% to close at 83.00 on light trading of 24,900 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Margin of 3 to 1.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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