|Wednesday 07th of January 2015
A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable
Law & Politics
A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is
undefinable. It is exactly what Surkov is alleged to have done in the
Ukraine this year. In typical fashion, as the war began, Surkov
published a short story about something he called non-linear war. A
war where you never know what the enemy are really up to, or even who
they are. The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but
to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilized
perception, in order to manage and control.
Adam Curtis - "Oh dear"-ism II and Non-Linear War @YouTube
Law & Politics
The Hidden Author of Putinism How Vladislav Surkov invented the new
Russia The Atlantic
“My portfolio at the Kremlin and in government has included ideology,
media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign
relations, and ...”—here he pauses and smiles—“modern art.”
In the 21st century, the techniques of the political technologists
have become centralized and systematized, coordinated out of the
office of the presidential administration, where Surkov would sit
behind a desk with phones bearing the names of all the “independent”
party leaders, calling and directing them at any moment, day or night.
The brilliance of this new type of authoritarianism is that instead of
simply oppressing opposition, as had been the case with 20th-century
strains, it climbs inside all ideologies and movements, exploiting and
rendering them absurd. One moment Surkov would fund civic forums and
human-rights NGOs, the next he would quietly support nationalist
movements that accuse the NGOs of being tools of the West. With a
flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative
modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists,
dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the
modern-art exhibitions. The Kremlin’s idea is to own all forms of
political discourse, to not let any independent movements develop
outside of its walls.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story,
“Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian
future after the “fifth world war”:
In the primitive wars of the 19th and 20th centuries it was common for
just two sides to fight. Two countries. Two groups of allies. Now four
coalitions collided. Not two against two, or three against one. No.
All against all.
There is no mention of holy wars in Surkov’s vision, none of the
cabaret used to provoke and tease the West. But there is a darkling
vision of globalization, in which instead of everyone rising together,
interconnection means multiple contests between movements and
corporations and city-states—where the old alliances, the EUs and
NATOs and “the West,” have all worn out, and where the Kremlin can
play the new, fluctuating lines of loyalty and interest, the flows of
oil and money, splitting Europe from America, pitting one Western
company against another and against both their governments so no one
knows whose interests are what and where they’re headed.
“A few provinces would join one side,” Surkov continues. “A few others
a different one. One town or generation or gender would join yet
another. Then they could switch sides, sometimes mid-battle. Their
aims were quite different. Most understood the war to be part of a
process. Not necessarily its most important part.”
“Won’t this ban affect you?” a reporter asked Surkov as he passed
through the Kremlin Palace. “Your tastes point to you being a very
Western person.” Surkov smiled and pointed to his head: “I can fit
Europe in here.” Later he announced: “I see the decision by the
administration in Washington as an acknowledgment of my service to
Russia. It’s a big honor for me. I don’t have accounts abroad. The
only things that interest me in the U.S. are Tupac Shakur, Allen
Ginsberg, and Jackson Pollock. I don’t need a visa to access their
work. I lose nothing.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.1874 Investors were busy selling the euro in anticipation of
more money-printing by the central bank, pushing the single currency
to a fresh low of $1.1842 in Asian trade before steadying at $1.1877.
Dollar Index 91.78
Japan Yen 119.03 The yen fell 0.6 percent to 119.09 per dollar at
12:11 p.m. in Tokyo after advancing to 118.06 yesterday, the strongest
since Dec. 17.
Swiss Franc 1.0115
India Rupee 63.435
South Korea Won 1100.38
Brazil Real 2.7002
Egypt Pound 7.1498
South Africa Rand 11.7258
The yen has strengthened 2.5 percent in 2015, the best performer of 10
developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted
Indexes. The dollar gained 1.9 percent, while the euro weakened 0.2
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 91.78 [Target 100.00]
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the
currency’s performance against six major peers, rose 0.3 percent to
91.802 after climbing to 91.818, the highest level since December
Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 47.90
The price dipped below $50 on Jan. 5, the lowest since April 2009. The
decline represents a $4.4 billion drop in daily revenue for oil
producers, which equates to $1.6 trillion on an annualized basis,
Citigroup researchers led by Edward Morse said in a Jan. 4 note to
Players In The Global Oil Export Market Business Insider
The biggest collapse in energy prices since the 2008 global recession
is shifting wealth and power from autocratic petro-states to
industrialized consumers, which could make the world safer, according
to a Berenberg Bank AG report.
If the price falls past $39 a barrel, we could see it go as low as $30
a barrel, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for
United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey, who projected the 2014 drop.
The biggest winner would be the Philippines, whose economic growth
would accelerate to 7.6 percent on average over the next two years if
oil fell to $40, while Russia would contract 2.5 percent over the same
period, according to an Oxford Economics Ltd.’s December analysis of
45 national economies.
Among advanced economies, Hong Kong is the biggest winner, while Saudi
Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates fare the worst, according
to Oxford Economics.
“Any massive redistribution of income can raise political tensions,”
Schmieding of Berenberg Bank said in the Jan. 6 report. “But, net/net,
strengthening the U.S., Europe, Japan, China and India, while
weakening Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, is likely to make
the world a safer place in the end.”
December 1st 2014 The oil price collapse marks a major inflexion point.
Gold 6 month INO 1217.47 [expecting a Triple Digit Print in 2015]
The metal rose for a third day yesterday to $1,223.19, the highest since Dec. 16
@SureKamhunga Bob Diamond: average age in sub-Saharan Africa 18; US is
38. There will be more babies born this year in Nigeria than all of
Brooklyn Vibe as Hipsters and Craft Beer Come to Jo’burg
At the Neighbourgoods market in a concrete parking level of
Johannesburg’s Braamfontein district, where hipsters indulge in
organic food and craft beer, the format is familiar to some visitors.
“It all felt very Brooklyn warehousey to me,” said Jeralyn Gerba, 33,
co-founder of travel website Fathom and a resident of the New York
borough, of her visit to the venue while on vacation. Together with
her husband, Justin Carter, an international DJ who throws the party
Mister Saturday Night, she sipped coconut water and snacked on Thai
spring rolls and fried chicken. “It was a real smorgasbord,” Gerba
The market held on Saturdays, which can draw more than 6,000 people,
is the biggest catalyst for growth in the mixed-use neighborhood
located on the northern edge of the central business district,
according to Adam Levy, 38, a Johannesburg developer who first bought
a building there in 2004.
The once fashionable area is undergoing a revival after the end of
apartheid in the 1990s was accompanied by an exodus of big businesses
to hubs further north such as Sandton, abandoning many buildings to
squatters. That helped stoke a surge in crime.
“We had the idea to change this dogma of fear,” said Levy, seated
outside at a barbecue restaurant just down the block from a bike shop
specializing in vintage and fixed-gear models. Multi-racial groups
mostly in their twenties wearing vibrant colors, often accessorized
with designer sunglasses or beards, crossed the street.
Johannesburg’s CBD is about a square kilometer (0.4 square mile) in
size and includes the headquarters for the South African operations of
mining companies Anglo American Plc (AAL) and BHP Billiton. (BLT)
Evidence of earlier abandonment by business is the 30-story Carlton
Hotel, where guests including former French President Francois
Mitterrand and Mick Jagger stayed, dormant since 1997.
Kentridge said he’d been to a dinner in the midst of the CBD, in the
area between Maboneng and Braamfontein.
“The streets when you drove around it at 10 o’clock at night were
completely deserted,” he said. “Like there’d been some huge disaster
that no one had told you about. And that has to change.”
That may be happening.
“You didn’t get many people flocking to this area and now you do
because there is so much to do, there’s lots of activities and places
to chill, drink, eat,” said Karishma Magan. “I have a lot of hope for
Nigeria Relooks FX Rules as Pledges No Capital Controls
Nigeria will never introduce capital controls and is reviewing a rule
introduced last month that investors said crushed liquidity in the
foreign exchange market, according to the governor of the central
The currency of Africa’s largest oil producer has been battered by
crude prices that have dropped more than 50 percent since June. The
naira depreciated 11 percent in the past three months, the most among
24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Central Bank of
Nigeria last month told banks to clear foreign exchange positions
daily, having previously allowed them net-open positions of 1 percent
of shareholder funds, in a bid to bolster the currency.
“There will be a review in due course,” Godwin Emefiele said by phone
from Abuja, the capital, yesterday. “But I can tell you categorically
it will no longer be 1 percent. It will be less than 1 percent. The
reason we put a stop to 1 percent is because we felt that it was too
large to be held by banks as a trading position.”
The bank has no plans to change a rule adopted around the same time
that dollars bought in the interbank market be used within 48 hours or
sold to the regulator, Emefiele said. The naira is “currently
appropriately priced” and no new measures are being considered,
The currency weakened for a second day, falling 0.4 percent to trade
at 184.17 per dollar as of 8 p.m. in Lagos yesterday. There were 18
trades in the naira in the eight hours through 5 p.m. local time,
compared with 215 four weeks ago, before the measures were introduced,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg from at least 39 local and
The measures implemented by the regulator has made it difficult for
foreign investors to exit their holdings, Samir Gadio, head of African
strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, said. “There’s a risk that these
measures last as long as the central bank feels it doesn’t have the
ability to control the exchange rate,” he said by phone from London
yesterday, before Emefiele announced the review.
“That is news to me that foreign investors are unable to exit their
positions,” Emefiele said. “If any foreign investor needs to exit its
position, he should make a demand to a bank. If the bank cannot find
those dollars to buy in the interbank market, the central bank will
provide the dollars.”
Witnesses said troops fought valiantly for several hours before
running out of ammunition, when they fled alongside civilians.
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.60% 2015
2,274.18 8.28 0.36%
“Base notes the recommendation of the board of World Titanium that their shareholders reject the offer. The directors of Base continue to believe there are compelling reasons to accept the offer and encourage World Titanium shareholders to read the bidd
I expect Base to get the 40%.
Base Launches offer for World Titanium Resources The Star
Tim Carstens Base Titanium #Kwale Mineral Sands 951 days ago
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 90.90
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.63% 2015
161.86 -0.31 -0.19%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.28% 2015
5,098.49 +8.78 +0.17%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
Small caps stir the market with huge capital gains in 2014 @BD_Africa
Counters such as Eaagads, Unga Group, Kenya Orchards, Kakuzi, Limuru
Tea, Car & General, Express Kenya and Umeme returned annual price
gains of above 50 per cent in 2014, overhauling the NSE All Share
Index which grew 19.2 per cent.
Car & General ended last year 80 per cent up at Sh54, with its
turnover up from Sh10.9 million in 2013 to Sh124 million last year
Express Ltd and Umeme were up 59 and 61 per cent respectively to
Sh6.20 and Sh21.
Agriculture stocks Eaagads, Kakuzi and Limuru Tea were up 77, 89 and
54 per cent last year to end December at Sh42, Sh180 and Sh771
respectively. This helped boost the segment into one of the top-three
performers during the year alongside banking and insurance.
Equity turnover for Eaagads rose from Sh90.5 million to Sh2.45 billion
between 2013 and 2014, Kakuzi’s was up to Sh166 million from the
previous Sh61 million while Limuru Tea which has only 1.2 million
issued shares saw its turnover double to Sh43.3 million as its price
rose above the Sh1,000 mark in the fourth quarter.
Investors may also be awakening to the potential value held by firms
that have huge land holdings, especially after the unfolding of a
high-stakes battle for listed plantations firm Rea Vipingo.
The Business Daily's Headline today reads
''Capital gains tax hits trading as KRA stands firm''
The Article reads in part
''The implementation of the capital gains tax on share transactions
has become controversial, as stockbrokers claim that they are not
legally obligated to collect the levy on behalf of the taxman.
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), however, sought to turn the heat on
the brokers Tuesday by warning that they will be liable for any taxes
that they fail to collect since the tax became effective on January 2,
the first trading day of the year.''
This is clearly not helpful for sentiment. I accept the Optics of 5%
around the CGT means the Tax is actually set very low but the issue is
around sentiment. I think to expect StockBrokers to morph into Tax
Collection Agents is simply not workable. StockBrokers do not have the
360 degree visibility on their Clients' Portfolios. . So I am
concerned that the Introduction of the CGT is designed for Failure and
I ,for one, would suggest a step back at this moment. Queering
sentiment carries spillover and contagion risks.
Global Markets have been like rabbits caught in the Headlights
watching the Oil Price crash below $50.00 [Brent] today.
The Dollar trades real muscular in 2015 and the Shilling was last
trading at a November 2011 low of 91.10.
The All Share ticked a very marginal 0.06 point slower to close at 161.80
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 4.18 points to close at 5,102.67 and higher
for the 2nd consecutive session.
Trading was subdued at 351.382m.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Unga rallied +5.696% to close at 41.75 and was locked at session highs
of 42.75 +8.23%. Unga was a Big Performer at the Bourse in 2014.
Eaagads [which is a Coffee Pure Play and Coffee [Caffeine High] was a
Stand-Out in a weak commodity complex in 2014] rallied 5.031% to close
at 41.75 and traded 12,000 shares
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
closed unchanged at 13.90 with 5.022m shares worth 69.799m. Safaricom
has corrected 7.333% off a Record Closing High of 15.00 reached 9th
December. Since Safaricom entered a Bull Market in 2012 it has
typically corrected 10% Peak to Trough in what is a classic Bull
Channel Pattern. Safaricom is basing out and set to turn higher again.
Uchumi firmed 0.487% to close at 10.30 but was printing 10.70 +4.39%
at the closing Bell. Uchumi traded 163,700 shares and has now rallied
14.444% above its rights Issue Price. Momentum is pointing the Price
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
NIC Bank rallied +3.4188% to close at 60.50 and was trading at its
Daily limit of 64.00 +9.4% at the Finish Line. NIC Bank traded 30,400
shares and the Spurt higher during the session was triggered by Social
Media Comments first from @Morris_Aron who tweeted ''ALERT: Reports of
NIC/CBA merger talks'' and the Nairobi Tech Blog and I quote;
"Deal rationale is that balance sheet size will matter for corporate
deals. Further the retail markets are similar and can be serviced by
one brand. Likelihood of the deal in the near term is 60 per cent," a
high level source said.
"Mshwari could potentially be hived out as stand alone business to
chart its own course."
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 49.50 and traded 1.009m shares.
Sellers outpaced Buyers by a Factor of 23 Sellers for every 5 Buyers
through the session.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Kenya Power KPLC continued its winning ways and closed 1.592% to close
at 15.95 and traded 563,500 shares. KPLC has rallied +10.763% since
the start of the Year. The Energy secretary Davis Chirchir said this;
"We are getting a $500 million loan (Sh45 billion) from the World Bank
to clear loans held by Kenya Power so that we can lower the interest
Buyers have rallied the price in 2015 on the basis of a sharply
reduced interest charge.
BAT ticked 0.22% higher to close at 900 on strong volume of 53,100
shares worth 47.831m.
EABL eased 0.65% to close at 305.00 and traded 126,800 shares. 300.00
will provide strong Buy Side Support in 2015.