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Wednesday 07th of January 2015 |
A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable Law & Politics |
A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable. It is exactly what Surkov is alleged to have done in the Ukraine this year. In typical fashion, as the war began, Surkov published a short story about something he called non-linear war. A war where you never know what the enemy are really up to, or even who they are. The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilized perception, in order to manage and control.
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Adam Curtis - "Oh dear"-ism II and Non-Linear War @YouTube Law & Politics |
The Hidden Author of Putinism How Vladislav Surkov invented the new Russia The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/?single_page=true
“My portfolio at the Kremlin and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ...”—here he pauses and smiles—“modern art.”
In the 21st century, the techniques of the political technologists have become centralized and systematized, coordinated out of the office of the presidential administration, where Surkov would sit behind a desk with phones bearing the names of all the “independent” party leaders, calling and directing them at any moment, day or night. The brilliance of this new type of authoritarianism is that instead of simply oppressing opposition, as had been the case with 20th-century strains, it climbs inside all ideologies and movements, exploiting and rendering them absurd. One moment Surkov would fund civic forums and human-rights NGOs, the next he would quietly support nationalist movements that accuse the NGOs of being tools of the West. With a flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists, dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the modern-art exhibitions. The Kremlin’s idea is to own all forms of political discourse, to not let any independent movements develop outside of its walls.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story, “Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the “fifth world war”:
In the primitive wars of the 19th and 20th centuries it was common for just two sides to fight. Two countries. Two groups of allies. Now four coalitions collided. Not two against two, or three against one. No. All against all. There is no mention of holy wars in Surkov’s vision, none of the cabaret used to provoke and tease the West. But there is a darkling vision of globalization, in which instead of everyone rising together, interconnection means multiple contests between movements and corporations and city-states—where the old alliances, the EUs and NATOs and “the West,” have all worn out, and where the Kremlin can play the new, fluctuating lines of loyalty and interest, the flows of oil and money, splitting Europe from America, pitting one Western company against another and against both their governments so no one knows whose interests are what and where they’re headed.
“A few provinces would join one side,” Surkov continues. “A few others a different one. One town or generation or gender would join yet another. Then they could switch sides, sometimes mid-battle. Their aims were quite different. Most understood the war to be part of a process. Not necessarily its most important part.”
“Won’t this ban affect you?” a reporter asked Surkov as he passed through the Kremlin Palace. “Your tastes point to you being a very Western person.” Surkov smiled and pointed to his head: “I can fit Europe in here.” Later he announced: “I see the decision by the administration in Washington as an acknowledgment of my service to Russia. It’s a big honor for me. I don’t have accounts abroad. The only things that interest me in the U.S. are Tupac Shakur, Allen Ginsberg, and Jackson Pollock. I don’t need a visa to access their work. I lose nothing.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.1874 Investors were busy selling the euro in anticipation of more money-printing by the central bank, pushing the single currency to a fresh low of $1.1842 in Asian trade before steadying at $1.1877. Dollar Index 91.78 Japan Yen 119.03 The yen fell 0.6 percent to 119.09 per dollar at 12:11 p.m. in Tokyo after advancing to 118.06 yesterday, the strongest since Dec. 17. Swiss Franc 1.0115 Pound 1.5147 Aussie 0.8075 India Rupee 63.435 South Korea Won 1100.38 Brazil Real 2.7002 Egypt Pound 7.1498 South Africa Rand 11.7258
The yen has strengthened 2.5 percent in 2015, the best performer of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar gained 1.9 percent, while the euro weakened 0.2 percent.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 91.78 [Target 100.00] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency’s performance against six major peers, rose 0.3 percent to 91.802 after climbing to 91.818, the highest level since December 2005.
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Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 47.90 Commodities |
The price dipped below $50 on Jan. 5, the lowest since April 2009. The decline represents a $4.4 billion drop in daily revenue for oil producers, which equates to $1.6 trillion on an annualized basis, Citigroup researchers led by Edward Morse said in a Jan. 4 note to clients. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/oilfield-writedowns-loom-as-market-collapse-guts-drilling-values.html
Players In The Global Oil Export Market Business Insider http://uk.businessinsider.com/rbc-oil-export-market-share-chart-2014-12?r=US
The biggest collapse in energy prices since the 2008 global recession is shifting wealth and power from autocratic petro-states to industrialized consumers, which could make the world safer, according to a Berenberg Bank AG report. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html
If the price falls past $39 a barrel, we could see it go as low as $30 a barrel, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey, who projected the 2014 drop.
The biggest winner would be the Philippines, whose economic growth would accelerate to 7.6 percent on average over the next two years if oil fell to $40, while Russia would contract 2.5 percent over the same period, according to an Oxford Economics Ltd.’s December analysis of 45 national economies.
Among advanced economies, Hong Kong is the biggest winner, while Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates fare the worst, according to Oxford Economics.
“Any massive redistribution of income can raise political tensions,” Schmieding of Berenberg Bank said in the Jan. 6 report. “But, net/net, strengthening the U.S., Europe, Japan, China and India, while weakening Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, is likely to make the world a safer place in the end.”
December 1st 2014 The oil price collapse marks a major inflexion point. http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0112.pdf
Gold 6 month INO 1217.47 [expecting a Triple Digit Print in 2015] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6
The metal rose for a third day yesterday to $1,223.19, the highest since Dec. 16
Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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President Jammeh Africa |
@SureKamhunga Bob Diamond: average age in sub-Saharan Africa 18; US is 38. There will be more babies born this year in Nigeria than all of western Europe. https://twitter.com/SureKamhunga/status/552485252879630336
Brooklyn Vibe as Hipsters and Craft Beer Come to Jo’burg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/brooklyn-vibe-as-hipsters-and-craft-beer-come-to-jo-burg.html
At the Neighbourgoods market in a concrete parking level of Johannesburg’s Braamfontein district, where hipsters indulge in organic food and craft beer, the format is familiar to some visitors.
“It all felt very Brooklyn warehousey to me,” said Jeralyn Gerba, 33, co-founder of travel website Fathom and a resident of the New York borough, of her visit to the venue while on vacation. Together with her husband, Justin Carter, an international DJ who throws the party Mister Saturday Night, she sipped coconut water and snacked on Thai spring rolls and fried chicken. “It was a real smorgasbord,” Gerba said.
The market held on Saturdays, which can draw more than 6,000 people, is the biggest catalyst for growth in the mixed-use neighborhood located on the northern edge of the central business district, according to Adam Levy, 38, a Johannesburg developer who first bought a building there in 2004.
The once fashionable area is undergoing a revival after the end of apartheid in the 1990s was accompanied by an exodus of big businesses to hubs further north such as Sandton, abandoning many buildings to squatters. That helped stoke a surge in crime.
“We had the idea to change this dogma of fear,” said Levy, seated outside at a barbecue restaurant just down the block from a bike shop specializing in vintage and fixed-gear models. Multi-racial groups mostly in their twenties wearing vibrant colors, often accessorized with designer sunglasses or beards, crossed the street.
Johannesburg’s CBD is about a square kilometer (0.4 square mile) in size and includes the headquarters for the South African operations of mining companies Anglo American Plc (AAL) and BHP Billiton. (BLT) Evidence of earlier abandonment by business is the 30-story Carlton Hotel, where guests including former French President Francois Mitterrand and Mick Jagger stayed, dormant since 1997.
Kentridge said he’d been to a dinner in the midst of the CBD, in the area between Maboneng and Braamfontein.
“The streets when you drove around it at 10 o’clock at night were completely deserted,” he said. “Like there’d been some huge disaster that no one had told you about. And that has to change.”
That may be happening.
“You didn’t get many people flocking to this area and now you do because there is so much to do, there’s lots of activities and places to chill, drink, eat,” said Karishma Magan. “I have a lot of hope for this place.”
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Nigeria Relooks FX Rules as Pledges No Capital Controls Africa |
Nigeria will never introduce capital controls and is reviewing a rule introduced last month that investors said crushed liquidity in the foreign exchange market, according to the governor of the central bank.
The currency of Africa’s largest oil producer has been battered by crude prices that have dropped more than 50 percent since June. The naira depreciated 11 percent in the past three months, the most among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Central Bank of Nigeria last month told banks to clear foreign exchange positions daily, having previously allowed them net-open positions of 1 percent of shareholder funds, in a bid to bolster the currency.
“There will be a review in due course,” Godwin Emefiele said by phone from Abuja, the capital, yesterday. “But I can tell you categorically it will no longer be 1 percent. It will be less than 1 percent. The reason we put a stop to 1 percent is because we felt that it was too large to be held by banks as a trading position.”
The bank has no plans to change a rule adopted around the same time that dollars bought in the interbank market be used within 48 hours or sold to the regulator, Emefiele said. The naira is “currently appropriately priced” and no new measures are being considered, Emefiele said.
The currency weakened for a second day, falling 0.4 percent to trade at 184.17 per dollar as of 8 p.m. in Lagos yesterday. There were 18 trades in the naira in the eight hours through 5 p.m. local time, compared with 215 four weeks ago, before the measures were introduced, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from at least 39 local and international banks.
The measures implemented by the regulator has made it difficult for foreign investors to exit their holdings, Samir Gadio, head of African strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, said. “There’s a risk that these measures last as long as the central bank feels it doesn’t have the ability to control the exchange rate,” he said by phone from London yesterday, before Emefiele announced the review.
“That is news to me that foreign investors are unable to exit their positions,” Emefiele said. “If any foreign investor needs to exit its position, he should make a demand to a bank. If the bank cannot find those dollars to buy in the interbank market, the central bank will provide the dollars.”
Witnesses said troops fought valiantly for several hours before running out of ammunition, when they fled alongside civilians. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nigerian-defense-chief-military-base-hands-extremists-28026238
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.60% 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
2,274.18 8.28 0.36%
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“Base notes the recommendation of the board of World Titanium that their shareholders reject the offer. The directors of Base continue to believe there are compelling reasons to accept the offer and encourage World Titanium shareholders to read the bidd Kenyan Economy |
Conclusions
I expect Base to get the 40%.
Base Launches offer for World Titanium Resources The Star http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/031NSX0501.pdf
Tim Carstens Base Titanium #Kwale Mineral Sands 951 days ago http://www.twitpic.com/9q75fh
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 90.90 http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.63% 2015 http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
161.86 -0.31 -0.19%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.28% 2015 http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
5,098.49 +8.78 +0.17%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
Small caps stir the market with huge capital gains in 2014 @BD_Africa http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Small-caps-stir-the-market-with-huge-capital-gains-in-2014/-/539552/2580648/-/jw4jh9z/-/index.html
Counters such as Eaagads, Unga Group, Kenya Orchards, Kakuzi, Limuru Tea, Car & General, Express Kenya and Umeme returned annual price gains of above 50 per cent in 2014, overhauling the NSE All Share Index which grew 19.2 per cent.
Car & General ended last year 80 per cent up at Sh54, with its turnover up from Sh10.9 million in 2013 to Sh124 million last year Express Ltd and Umeme were up 59 and 61 per cent respectively to Sh6.20 and Sh21.
Agriculture stocks Eaagads, Kakuzi and Limuru Tea were up 77, 89 and 54 per cent last year to end December at Sh42, Sh180 and Sh771 respectively. This helped boost the segment into one of the top-three performers during the year alongside banking and insurance.
Equity turnover for Eaagads rose from Sh90.5 million to Sh2.45 billion between 2013 and 2014, Kakuzi’s was up to Sh166 million from the previous Sh61 million while Limuru Tea which has only 1.2 million issued shares saw its turnover double to Sh43.3 million as its price rose above the Sh1,000 mark in the fourth quarter.
Investors may also be awakening to the potential value held by firms that have huge land holdings, especially after the unfolding of a high-stakes battle for listed plantations firm Rea Vipingo.
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N.S.E Today |
The Business Daily's Headline today reads
''Capital gains tax hits trading as KRA stands firm''
The Article reads in part
''The implementation of the capital gains tax on share transactions has become controversial, as stockbrokers claim that they are not legally obligated to collect the levy on behalf of the taxman.
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), however, sought to turn the heat on the brokers Tuesday by warning that they will be liable for any taxes that they fail to collect since the tax became effective on January 2, the first trading day of the year.''
This is clearly not helpful for sentiment. I accept the Optics of 5% around the CGT means the Tax is actually set very low but the issue is around sentiment. I think to expect StockBrokers to morph into Tax Collection Agents is simply not workable. StockBrokers do not have the 360 degree visibility on their Clients' Portfolios. . So I am concerned that the Introduction of the CGT is designed for Failure and I ,for one, would suggest a step back at this moment. Queering sentiment carries spillover and contagion risks.
Global Markets have been like rabbits caught in the Headlights watching the Oil Price crash below $50.00 [Brent] today.
The Dollar trades real muscular in 2015 and the Shilling was last trading at a November 2011 low of 91.10. The All Share ticked a very marginal 0.06 point slower to close at 161.80 The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 4.18 points to close at 5,102.67 and higher for the 2nd consecutive session. Trading was subdued at 351.382m.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Unga rallied +5.696% to close at 41.75 and was locked at session highs of 42.75 +8.23%. Unga was a Big Performer at the Bourse in 2014.
Eaagads [which is a Coffee Pure Play and Coffee [Caffeine High] was a Stand-Out in a weak commodity complex in 2014] rallied 5.031% to close at 41.75 and traded 12,000 shares
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and closed unchanged at 13.90 with 5.022m shares worth 69.799m. Safaricom has corrected 7.333% off a Record Closing High of 15.00 reached 9th December. Since Safaricom entered a Bull Market in 2012 it has typically corrected 10% Peak to Trough in what is a classic Bull Channel Pattern. Safaricom is basing out and set to turn higher again.
Uchumi firmed 0.487% to close at 10.30 but was printing 10.70 +4.39% at the closing Bell. Uchumi traded 163,700 shares and has now rallied 14.444% above its rights Issue Price. Momentum is pointing the Price higher.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
NIC Bank rallied +3.4188% to close at 60.50 and was trading at its Daily limit of 64.00 +9.4% at the Finish Line. NIC Bank traded 30,400 shares and the Spurt higher during the session was triggered by Social Media Comments first from @Morris_Aron who tweeted ''ALERT: Reports of NIC/CBA merger talks'' and the Nairobi Tech Blog and I quote;
"Deal rationale is that balance sheet size will matter for corporate deals. Further the retail markets are similar and can be serviced by one brand. Likelihood of the deal in the near term is 60 per cent," a high level source said.
"Mshwari could potentially be hived out as stand alone business to chart its own course."
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 49.50 and traded 1.009m shares. Sellers outpaced Buyers by a Factor of 23 Sellers for every 5 Buyers through the session.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Kenya Power KPLC continued its winning ways and closed 1.592% to close at 15.95 and traded 563,500 shares. KPLC has rallied +10.763% since the start of the Year. The Energy secretary Davis Chirchir said this;
"We are getting a $500 million loan (Sh45 billion) from the World Bank to clear loans held by Kenya Power so that we can lower the interest cost."
Buyers have rallied the price in 2015 on the basis of a sharply reduced interest charge.
BAT ticked 0.22% higher to close at 900 on strong volume of 53,100 shares worth 47.831m.
EABL eased 0.65% to close at 305.00 and traded 126,800 shares. 300.00 will provide strong Buy Side Support in 2015.
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