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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 08th of January 2015

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Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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@verge The Coachella 2015 lineup is up, which means it's time to obsess over poster font sizes

“We're a crowd, a swarm. We think in groups, travel in armies. Armies
carry the gene for self-destruction. One bomb is never enough. The
blur of technology, this is where the oracles plot their wars. Because
now comes the introversion. Father Teilhard knew this, the omega
point. A leap out of our biology. Ask yourself this question. Do we
have to be human forever? Consciousness is exhausted. Back now to
inorganic matter. This is what we want. We want to be stones in a
― Don DeLillo, Point Omega

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@alykhansatchu Dec 29 Ali the Navigator Wasini Island Kenya


This was the last Tweet #CharlieHebdo before the Attack

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@jimsciutto Shocking video of attack underway, gunmen in #Paris execute police officer #CharlieHebdo #JeSuisCharlie #ParisShooting
Law & Politics

@Charles_Lister  9m9 minutes ago Graphic: Video shows gunmen with
automatic rifles during attack on #CharlieHebdo #JeSuisCharlie


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What took place at the offices of Charlie Hebdo was a mission of targeted assassinations carried out by proficient killers armed with Kalashnikovs for urban guerrilla fighting. @Independent
Law & Politics

However, the fact that they had acquired automatic rifles, carried out
their plan efficiently and managed to get away, shows a level of
organisation not usually seen among “lone wolves”.

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@AJENews French police name brothers suspected of carrying out the attack on #CharlieHebdo #JeSuisCharlie #ParisShooting
Law & Politics


In a World of more than 7b Souls, The Fat Tail [Those prepared to act
for their Warholian moment of Fame] is quite a number.

A screen grab from an ISIS propaganda video shows the ISIS killer
known as “Jihadi John,” who was depicted in other videos as the
murderer of hostages James Foley, Steven Sotloff, David Haines, Alan
Henning, and Peter Kassig, as well as other unnamed Syrian soldiers.

Those on the receiving end of @BarackObama's c21st Oil and Currency
Warfare are all beating a Path to Beijing

December 1st 2014 This is a very 21st century 'Shock and Awe
'President Obama has been a very subtle, skilled and hard-nosed
exponent of currency and now oil warfare. #Oil and #Currency Warfare

President Obama while getting creamed in the mid-terms, has been a
very subtle, skilled and hard-nosed exponent of currency and now oil
warfare. This plan to undercut oil was exquisitely constructed and
executed. The Russian Ruble has been crushed, the Russian Central Bank
has dropped a $100b defending the currency. Iran might have got an
extension but the new oil price normal keeps them on the ropes.
Venezuela’s oil income has fallen by 35 per cent and is set to tumble

@teleSURtv #ENFOTOS | Así fue la visita del presidente
@NicolasMaduro a #China

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Saudi King’s Health Puts Prince Who Hunted Al-Qaeda in Spotlight
Law & Politics

“He knows how to run a very complex organization,” Jordan, who last
met Prince Salman in March 2013, said by phone from Dallas. “He knows
how to deal with more than one crisis or problem at a time and he
knows how to deal with terrorists and subversive threats in a firm

King Abdullah, born in 1924, has ruled Saudi Arabia since 2005. His
illness has brought to the fore speculation about succession in the
biggest Arab economy. While the transfer of power to Prince Salman,
79, is clear, what happens next is less certain, putting the monarchy
in uncharted territory at a key time in its modern history.

“We are very close to a point in time where the kingdom will go into
an unprecedented phase of transition,” Kamran Bokhari, adviser for
Middle Eastern and South Asian affairs at Texas-based consulting firm
Stratfor, said. “If this state that’s carrying the region runs into
internal problems then that has great implications for the entire

Prince Salman was born in the Saudi capital on Dec. 31, 1935. He
served as the city’s governor for about six decades before the king
appointed him crown prince following the death of his brother Prince

“They’re in a time of falling oil prices, business confidence is
already probably less than it would be otherwise,” Gause said by phone
from Riyadh. “If you have an uncertain succession that just doubles
business worries about” government spending, he added.


Moments of Transition always pose moments of High risk.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1824 The dollar gained 0.2 percent to $1.1821 per euro after
advancing to $1.802 yesterday, the strongest since January 2006.
Dollar Index 92.16
Japan Yen 119.70
Swiss Franc 1.0160
Pound 1.5084
Aussie 0.8109 The Aussie gained 0.4 percent to 81.08 U.S. cents after
sliding to 80.33 yesterday, the weakest since July 2009.
India Rupee 63.065
South Korea Won 1096.95
Brazil Real 2.6829
Egypt Pound 7.1522
South Africa Rand 11.68

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 92.16 [100.00 Target]


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against 10 major peers, climbed 0.1 percent to 1,146.63, set for the
highest close in data going back to 2004.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1824 [1.0000 Target[


29-SEP-2014 Inflation in the Eurozone, which has its nose barely above
zero at 0.4 per cent, could go negative in the next 12 months.


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World Currencies

Çirağan Palace is a former Ottoman palace built out of wood and marble
in the latter half of the 17th century, and now it stands as, rebuilt
and finished in marble as a luxury hotel. The Sultan Suite is a direct
homage to its opulent past, one of the largest suites in Europe. The
gilded suite is outfitted with a handmade marble hammam, private steam
room and rain shower, a full kitchen, a guest room with a clawfoot
Devon bathtub, decadent chandeliers, period furniture, fine art and
more. The Çirağan guestlist often features the likes of royals,
successful Hollywood actors and fashion designers, and its amenities
are highly considerate of their VIP check-ins: private butler service,
boat and helicopter services, an expansive pool and unparalleled views
over the Bosphorus strait are all part of an experience at the top
billed hotel.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Crude Oil 5 day chart INO 48.85


WTI for February delivery climbed as much as $1, or 2.1 percent, to
$49.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. It increased 72 cents to $48.65 yesterday. The volume of all
futures traded was about 30 percent above the 100-day average.

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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 48.85

Gold 6 month INO


@EconBizFin  We will need to produce more food in the next 40
years than in the previous 10,000 combined


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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"Islamic extremism has two global centers of gravity. One in the Arab Middle East, but the other is in sub-Saharan Africa," researcher Ron Boyd-MacMillan

Topping the list of Christians confirmed to have been killed for
faith-related reasons were Nigeria at 2,484 and Central African
Republic at 1,088, with Syria and Iraq - where Islamic State militants
have driven hundreds of thousands of Christians from areas they
control - at 271 and 60 respectively.

Governor of Congo mining province loses party post in rift with president


Moise Katumbi, the powerful governor of Democratic Republic of Congo's
copper-producing Katanga province, has been removed as regional head
of the ruling party, political sources said, highlighting a deepening
rift with President Joseph Kabila.

Local police and intelligence chiefs have also been summoned to the
capital Kinshasa, senior officials said, in an apparent attempt to
limit the political fallout following Katumbi's return to Congo after
a lengthy absence due to illness.

Katumbi has long been considered a pillar of Kabila's Katanga-centred
power base.

But he made a speech in Katanga late last month that was seen as a
thinly veiled attack on Kabila, who has been in power since 2001 and
under Congo's constitution is required to step down in 2016 at the end
of his second term.

Couching his criticism in football references, Katumbi urged his
supporters to challenge Kabila's right to score a "third penalty"
against Congo, a vast mineral-rich country of around 70 million people
blighted by conflicts and corruption.

Katumbi's remarks represent the highest-profile challenge to a
possible third term from within Kabila's own People's Party for
Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD).

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10-NOV-2014 Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Saharan Africa

The tipping point for this accelerated sequence of events was
President Compaoré stacking parliament in order to extend the
presidential term limit. There are plenty of African presidents who
are seeking to pull off the same magic trick and events in Ouagadougou
have surely put them on notice.

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Meet The Man Who Wanted To Rule The Gambia BuzzFeed

In a world peppered with eccentric dictators, Jammeh stands apart. He
has claimed to have cured AIDS and the Ebola virus, and rules over a
small West African country poor in resources and consistently ranked
by the United Nations as one of the least developed countries on
earth. One man, who had left the Gambia for the U.S. more than two
decades ago, thought that he could fix it with a small group of fellow
exiles and $200,000. He now faces up to 10 years in jail.

When the FBI searched Njie’s home, they found a document titled
“Gambia Reborn: A Charter for Transition from Dictatorship to
Democracy and Development,” as well as handwritten notes asking
questions like “do you have a budget?” and “what is the transition
period for a return to civilian rule?” according to the affidavit.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.61% 2015

48,961.06 -362.87 -0.75%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.6864


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1500


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -1.39% 2015


8,798.94 -212.13 -2.35%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.07% 2015


31,167.54 -1,354.77 -4.17%

USD NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23   92.000-94.000    7.67/7.34    576/542   -0.75/-6.00

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24-NOV-2014 Nigeria In The Eye Of The Storm

My target for the Naira is 200.

I can hear the echo of folks asking 'What went wrong?'

It was only earlier this year that Nigeria's economy was calculated to
have surpassed South Africa's as the largest on the continent after
Nigeria's GDP was rebased to $488 billion for 2013 compared to the
World Bank's 2012 GDP figures of $384.3 billion for South Africa.

The big game changer for Nigeria has been the free fall in the price
of crude oil. Brent crude is around $80 a barrel and at multi-year
lows. Lower prices have eroded Nigeria's income. Nigeria is collateral
damage in a red hot crude oil and geopolitical war, where the US (and
Saudi Arabia) have tipped the oil markets into surplus in order to
exert enormous pressure on Russia [in particular] amongst others.

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Boko Haram has become Africa's ISIS By J. Peter Pham, contributor

The new year is off to great start for the militant group Boko Haram —
and much less so for Nigeria, its West African neighbors, and the
international community as a whole — as the brutal insurgents continue
to carve out what has, in effect, become Africa's ISIS (Islamic State
in Iraq and Syria). It is high time the United States and its allies
give this burgeoning problem the attention it deserves.

Over the course of the last year, the Nigerian extremists best known
for their infamous April 2014 kidnapping of nearly 300 schoolgirls, an
outrage which gave rise to the global social media phenomenon of the
#BringBackOurGirls campaign, have become a military force to be
reckoned with. What I dubbed the militant group's "Version 3.0" in
testimony before a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing in June has
successfully seized and holds wide swathes of three states in
northeastern Nigeria — by some estimates, a total area larger than
that of the state of Maryland. It has used this base to launch a
campaign of terrorist attacks reaching other Nigerian states as well
as into neighboring countries, many of whom are already under pressure
from militants linked to al Qaeda's North African affiliate as well as
the disintegration of Libya. By some estimates, more than 10,000
people have died as a result of Boko Haram-related violence in just
2014 alone, while more than 1.5 million others have been displaced.

In early September, the group shot down a Nigerian Air Force
Dassault-Dornier Alpha attack jet — a feat that ISIS fighters have not
yet succeeded in doing (although they did capture a Jordanian pilot
whose F-16 crashed near Raqqa, Syria, on Christmas Eve) — and
subsequently, in a tip of the hat to the latter group's grisly
signature product, released a video that showed what it said was the
beheading of the captured Nigerian pilot.

More importantly, as terrorism analyst Jacob Zenn has pointed out,
Boko Haram's videos show a troubling convergence between the Nigerian
militants and their ISIS counterparts not only in terms of symbolism
and ideology, but also insurgency doctrine.

Nevertheless, the United States, its African partners, and the rest of
the international community need to give some serious attention as
well as dedicate real diplomatic — and, yes, military — resources
toward a situation that was already quite dire, but could
significantly and rapidly deteriorate in 2015.

The kwacha retreated for a third day, weakening 0.3 percent to 6.5511
per dollar as of 5:07 p.m. in the capital, Lusaka. That extended
2015’s losses to 2.5 percent, the biggest slide at the turn of the
year since the first week of 2009.


“Increase in dollar demand from corporates, importers and
manufacturers were key drivers of the kwacha weakness in a market
lacking dollar supply,” Lusaka-based Zambia National Commercial Bank
Plc said in a note to clients today.

Zambians are preparing to elect a new president on Jan. 20, following
the October death of Michael Sata, that pits Defense and Justice
Minister Edgar Lungu of the ruling Patriotic Front against Movement
for Multiparty Democracy President Nevers Mumba and United Party for
National Development President Hakainde Hichilema. A new increased
mining royalty system that started this year may hinder production and
cut revenue, according to an industry lobby group, also threatening to
pressure the kwacha.

Emerging-market currencies have lost ground as oil prices tumbling to
five-year lows spurs speculation of faster economic growth in the
U.S., making the dollar more attractive. The price of copper, which
accounts for about 80 percent of Zambia’s export earnings, has also
fallen to trade near the lowest levels in about four years.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.50% 2015


2,272.42 -2.23 -0.10%

@DailyMonitor  Dusty Gulu road irks residents


UPDATE 1-Mozambique's Renamo party says will not take up parliament seats


"We will not take our seats at parliament, which is due to be sworn in
on Jan 12. Our party and president decided that we will not take part
in a farce," party spokesman Antonio Muchanga told Reuters.

The move is sure to stoke political tensions in the poor but
mineral-rich country, which has seen sporadic flare-ups of fighting
between Renamo and government forces since the end of the civil war in

Muchanga was detained for several hours on Tuesday by police, who
accused him of inciting violence and leading an illegal demonstration
- allegations he denies.

Renamo won 89 of the 250 seats in Mozambique's parliament. Frelimo
secured 144 seats and a third party won 17.

Tensions are running high in Mozambique. In the run-up to the
election, Renamo partisans clashed sporadically with troops and
police. The Renamo leader only emerged from a bush hideout in
September to reaffirm a 1992 peace pact.

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Mozambique must complete contract negotiations for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and also fast track key structural reforms to maintain strong economic growth, the International Monetary Fund said this week.

The IMF forecasts the southern African nation's economy to expand by
7.5 percent in 2014 from 7 percent the previous year, but said delays
in implementing reforms to tax administration and public financial
management could hurt medium-term growth.

The 2014 forecast is down from a previous projection of 8 percent.

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Treasury agrees to bail out cash-strapped Mumias sugar
Kenyan Economy

Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich said on Wednesday he had held
meetings with the board and management to see how the troubled miller
could be resuscitated.

Mumias has asked for a cash injection of about Sh2.3 billion from the
government to meet urgent financial needs and resume full operations
following completion of maintenance works that had forced it to
temporarily halt processing.

Mr Rotich said the government recognised the importance of the miller
to national economy and particularly to the western part of the
country where it is one of the biggest employers.

“We have agreed to have a clear stabilisation plan that we will work
with jointly to see how we can support the firm. But there has to be
very clear stabilisation and reform plan which covers the short term,
medium and long term. We can’t just blindly pump money into the
miller,” Mr Rotich said in Nairobi on Wednesday.

Mumias Sugar share price data here


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Uchumi Supermarkets Limited will use proceeds from its oversubscribed rights issue to open 14 new branches in the next one year.
Kenyan Economy

The retail chain’s chief executive officer, Jonathan Ciano, said on
Wednesday that seven of the new outlets would be in Kenya and the rest
would be spread across Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda.

“All the money that was raised will be used to grow the business
locally and in the region. We are just starting operations in Rwanda,
which, we believe, will grow into one of our most important markets,”
Mr Ciano said.

“We are delighted to be here this day, celebrating the success of one
of our hardest undertakings since the rebirth of this company. I would
say that conducting the rights issue was a more daunting task than
resuscitating Uchumi,” Mr Ciano added.

read more

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 91.148
Kenyan Economy

By 0741 GMT, the shilling was trading at 91.00/91.10, edging down from
Tuesday's close of 90.90/91.00. The last time the shilling traded at
these levels was in late 2011.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.67% 2015


161.80 -0.06 -0.04%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.20% 2015


5,102.67 +4.18 +0.08%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

Trading remains subdued at the Bourse and clocked 231.561m.
The All Share eased a marginal 0.02 points to close at 161.78.
The NSE20 gave back 4.87 points to close at 5,097.80.
The Market is circumspect and thin and this is a response to the CGT

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom shaved off 1.079% to close at 13.75 and traded 3.746m shares
worth 51.522m. Safaricom sits 8.333% below a record Closing High of
15.00 reached Dec 9th 2014. A Rebound is imminent.

Uchumi listed its newly minted rights shares at the Securities
Exchange yesterday and the CEO Mr. Ciano said this;

“We are delighted to be here this day, celebrating the success of one
of our hardest undertakings since the rebirth of this company. I would
say that conducting the rights issue was a more daunting task than
resuscitating Uchumi”

Uchumi rallied +2.912% to close at 10.60 and traded 26,600 shares with
Buyers at the Closing Bell for 10x the Volume traded. Uchumi has
rallied +15.2713% over the last 4 weeks and Buyers of the Rights
Shares at 9.00 are nicely in the money.

Car and General surged +9.183% to close at 53.50.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 56.00 and traded 657,000
shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 55 versus 18 at the
Finish, signalling strong Buy Side Interest 6.666% below a Record High
of 60.00 reached last year.
Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 16.30 and traded 1.630m shares.
Diamond Trust Bank rallied +2.9411% to close at 245.00 but on low
volume of 700 shares.
COOP Bank which had become oversold rebounded +2.156% to close at
18.95 and traded 441,800 shares.

NIC Bank followed on yesterdays gain of 3.42% with a further +4.13%
gain to close at 63.00 and traded 25,900 shares. The Catalyst for the
2 day Rally was Chatter on Social Media signalling a possible merger
between NIC and CBA, with M-shwari being spun off as a standalone
Entity, as per these reports.

Transcentury rebounded +5.2631% to close at 19.00.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Mumias Sugar rallied +5.263% to close at 2.00 and was trading at its
daily Limit of 2.05 +7.89% at the Finish line. The Spike higher was
triggered by comments carried in the Nation Newspaper that indicated
The Treasury were considering assisting Mumias Sugar. Mumias Sugar
traded 3.572m shares and Buyers swarmed the stock through the trading

EABL rallied +0.9836% to close at 308.00 and was trading at 310.00
+1.64% session highs at the Finish. EABL traded 58,900 shares and
there were Buyers for 5x the volume traded at the Finish Line. EABL is
+1.986% in 2015 and poised to have a strong year in 2015, in my

Kenya Power KPLC firmed +1.25% to close at 16.15 and traded 826,100
shares. KPLC has been real strong out of the Blocks in 2015 and has
rallied +12.152% this year and that Rally might well have been
informed by news of the World Bank loan which will retire more
expensive Borrowing.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2015

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