|Tuesday 13th of January 2015
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"Stay hungry. Stay foolish." -- Steve Jobs
"Oh my God, what if you wake up some day, and you're 65, or 75, and
you never got your memoir or novel written; or you didn't go swimming
in warm pools and oceans all those years because your thighs were
jiggly and you had a nice big comfortable tummy; or you were just so
strung out on perfectionism and people-pleasing that you forgot to
have a big juicy creative life, of imagination and radical silliness
and staring off into space like when you were a kid? It's going to
break your heart. Don't let this happen." -- Anne Lamott
"Find a way or make one." -- Hannibal
I am looking forward to participating this evening at the
#Tweet4Elephants Event at @Bobgodec @USEmbassyKenya Dr.
12-JAN-2015 The Year of G2 as Europe Off Balance
Law & Politics
Events in Paris - the #CharlieHebdo offices, then the 'Bonnie and
Clyde' show in and around Paris, and finally the denouement in two
separate locations - captured the airwaves completely.
We all understand the language of the media. As such, the Kouachi
brothers and Amedy Coulibaly and his cross-bowtoting partner Hayat
Boumeddiene were so proficient at taking over the world's attention
that Boko Haram's single biggest massacre and a 10-year- old female
suicide bomber did not even rate a mention.
In fact, President Goodluck Jonathan saw fit to send condolences to
France but failed to mention events at home, entirely. The arrival of
the asymmetric threat on the streets of Paris was deeply unsettling
and will surely keep Europe off-balance and presages a 'new normal'.
As small boys, the Kouachi brothers were aban- doned by their
Algerian-born parents and brought up in a children's home in Brittany,
according to The Independent.
Europe printed a negative year-on-year deflation rate of 0.2 per cent
in December and the European Commercial Bank is imminently look- ing
to launch a Quantitative Easing [money-printing] programme. The
euro/dollar exchange rate is headed to parity and even lower in 2015.
I know Goldman Sachs has a parity call for euro/dollar in 2016, but I
think the unravelling will happen in 2015 and a lot more quickly. The
economic blowback from the frozen conflict in Ukraine with Russia has
exacted a price, as well. Economics and geopolitics are more
intertwined than ever before. If European bond yields - they are at
record all-time lows - are the 'signal in the noise', then this means
Europe is in danger of a major 'death-spiral'.
The oil warfare specialist, US President Barack Obama, has
successfully wrestled crude price to below $50 a barrel, and with that
effected a choke- hold on Vladimir Putin's Russia, Venezuela and
others as far afield as Nigeria and Angola. The Nigeria All-Share
Index is down 13 per cent in 2015, and the worst performing equity
index in the world.
I do not see a near-term bounce in the oil price. I think it could
average $50 a barrel for the next 24 months. There is no 'Hail-Mary'
pass coming that I can see for the oil producers and it's going to
stay very Darwinian. Oil sup- ply is not reducing as prices implode,
it's actually increasing as produc- ers try to make up for some of the
shortfall by selling more barrels. This lower oil price structure is a
silver bullet for the G2 - the US and China. Of course, it also
benefits Asia, Japan, places like the Philip- pines and ourselves
[once the Energy Regulatory Commission passes on the price cut in a
The big winners are the US and China. Last year, the US created the
most jobs since 1999. Lower oil prices are a tailwind worth a trillion
dollars. The US economy is the 'come-back kid' of 2015. The Federal
Reserve has stopped printing dollars and I think the Fed is just one
headline economic print from raising interest rates. A rate hike, even
as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for a renewed surge in
the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher - buy the dollar.
Last year, when I attended the #AfricaRising conference in Maputo,
co-hosted by the International Monetary Fund and the government of
Mozambique, I posted a photograph of the poster and tweeted:
"#Africarising but not in the float all boats way it was in 2012 and
2013". This remains the point.
Coming in 2015: The New World Disorder
Law & Politics
If the first few days of 2015 are any indication, this year's
headlines will be dominated by global turmoil: from terrorism and
cyber attacks to upheaval in Iraq, Ukraine, the South China Sea and
beyond. This is the new normal; a reflection of a global system
buffeted by countervailing forces.
Control Risks' new RiskMap report calls this the "new world disorder,"
and it creates a host of challenges for businesses. Multinational
companies must now navigate a narrow and sometimes perilous channel
between an increasingly globalized market and a resurgence of national
self-interest by individual countries.
Businesses develop their plans in terms of geo-markets. They often
assume access to capital, talent, technology and customers will exist
anywhere they need them, unconstrained by national boundaries. The
makeup of senior executive teams has become increasingly multinational
as well, giving corporate leadership a truly global perspective.
The Lankan transition resets Indian Ocean politics M K Bhadrakumar
The defeat of the incumbent Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa in
the presidential election on Thursday was neither completely
unexpected nor was inevitable, as the narrow victory of his opponent
Maithripala Sirisena testifies. But its significance is nonetheless
What happened may not have the look of a classic 'regime change' -
'color revolution' as in Georgia or a coup as in Ukraine - because the
transition adhered to democratic principles, but without doubt outside
powers had got involved discreetly (without being visible) and
choreographed the rebound of party politics in Sri Lanka.
The success of that unspoken enterprise will ultimately need to be
measured in terms of the policies (and their sustainability) that the
Sirisena government is likely to pursue in the coming period. Given
that country's complex external environment, the contradictions in its
political economy and of course Sri Lanka's robust democratic
traditions, the best-laid plots by outsiders can go awry.
For the United States, Sri Lanka figures as a potential 'lynchpin' in
its rebalance strategy in Asia; for Britain, its return to the east of
Suez demands reclaiming the mentorship of the political elites in
Colombo; for China, it is a vital hub in its Maritime Silk Road
strategy; while, for India, that island falls within what it regards
as its 'sphere of influence'.
A good starting point, therefore, will be an understanding of what
really happened. To be sure, Rajapaksa miscalculated by seeking
renewed mandate two years before his term ended.
Mozambique swore in new lawmakers today during a ceremony boycotted by the main opposition party, which disputes the outcome of the October election and has threatened to declare a breakaway republic.
President Armando Guebuza opened the new Parliament, which includes
144 deputies from his ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique,
or Frelimo, and 89 from the opposition Mozambican National Resistance,
Afonso Dhlakama, head of Renamo, said at a weekend rally in the port
city of Beira that he would declare an autonomous republic comprising
provinces where the party claims more support than Frelimo. Dhlakama,
the runner-up in every presidential vote since the southeast African
country's first democratic elections in 1994, identified the provinces
of Sofala, Zambezia, Nampula, Manica, Tete and Niassa.
Renamo ended a 15-year civil war with Frelimo in 1992 with an
agreement to take part in democratic politics. In 2012, it re-started
a low-level insurgency that ended in September last year, in time for
the party to participate in provincial, parliamentary and presidential
elections. Its members last week boycotted the investiture of
provincial assemblies, preventing the inauguration of those where it
is the majority party.
Guebuza led the lawmakers in a moment's silence to mark the death of
at least 69 people in Tete province who drank poisoned home-brewed
beer at a funeral. The government has declared three days of mourning
for the victims.
Guebuza will be replaced as head of state on Jan. 15 by Filipe Nyusi,
the Frelimo candidate in last year's election. He is stepping down
after serving the maximum two terms.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.58% 2015
48,468.39 -482.11 -0.98%
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.5060
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1524
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +2.08% 2015
9,109.23 +199.48 +2.24%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.76% 2015
30,234.72 +91.70 +0.30%
Nigeria Says Toll Didn't Exceed 150 in Latest Attacks
Nigeria's military said that no more than 150 people were killed by
Islamist militants last week in a series of attacks that United
Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said had placed the nation at
the top of his agenda.
Initial evidence, including aerial surveillance, has disproved claims
that as many as 2,000 people died near the northeastern town of Baga
in fighting led by Boko Haram since Jan. 3, the nation's Defence
Headquarters said in a statement posted on its website. The bodies
include some of the attackers.
"Terrible atrocities have been committed against innocent Nigerians in
Baga," according to the statement. "The military has not given up on
Baga or any part of the country where terrorists are marauding. No
portion of Nigeria's territory has been or will be conceded to
The UN's Ban said he was appalled by the reports and that violence in
Nigeria is "at the top" of his agenda after 10 days of attacks.
Amnesty International said as many as 2,000 people may have been
killed, citing local reports. Boko Haram's six-year campaign to impose
Islamic law on Africa's biggest oil producer has killed more than
13,000 people, according to the government.
Ethiopia's buoyant economy raises Heineken's hopes for beer market growth
Heineken is betting on Ethiopia's rising incomes to fuel rapid
expansion of the beer market in Africa's second most populous country,
where the group is the first of the big international brewers to build
a new plant.
Ethiopia's average annual beer consumption of some 5 litres per capita
is about half the average level for sub-Saharan Africa, excluding
South Africa, offering scope for expansion among the population.
Heineken's African and Middle East regional president Siep Hiemstra
said in an interview on Monday that Ethiopians were used to fermented
drinks and also grew barley, used in beer making.
"It's a country, where as a brewer, you believe you should be there
... One can expect that there will be rapid expansion of the brewing
industry," he said.
Ethiopia's economy is expanding at about 9 percent per year, sturdy
growth that led to its debut $1 billion Eurobond being oversubscribed
Heineken has bought numerous plants in Africa and built two, one in
Nigeria in 2000 and another in South Africa in 2008. It has been
gradually ramping up its new plant in Ethiopia since July. The 110
million euro ($130 million) brewery, with a capacity of 1.5 million
hectolitres, is the largest in the country and located near the
capital Addis Ababa.
The new facility adds to the Bedele and Harar breweries, each some 500
kilometres from Addis Ababa, that Heineken bought from the state for a
combined $163 million in 2011.
Hiemstra said the new brewery would initially focus on local brands
Hamar and Bedele, but could start producing the premium Heineken brand
Heineken is the number two player in Ethiopia, where its competitors
include Diageo, which acquired Meta Abo Brewing in 2012 for $225
million and market leader BGI, a long-standing player bought by French
drinks company Castel in 1990
17-NOV-2014 Dwindling Oil Fortunes Not Good For Kenya, The Star
My concern at this moment is this: We are neces- sarily placing a big
bet on oil and gas and cementing our position as the pivot (the energy
conduit and route to the sea] state for this region. Now go take a
look at the price of oil. Its been slammed from above a $100 a barrel
to below $80. There is an outside chance that we can break down to $50
a barrel. The share prices of the oil companies (Tullow Oil is down
45.84 per cent since the start of the year and Africa Oil is negative
60.67 per cent over the same period) have cratered. The markets are
signaling loud and clear that the economics have changed and how. Both
Tullow Oil and Africa Oil are exploration companies. They find the oil
and then they typically go and find a big major with deep pockets to
exploit the oil. It is imperative that we see the majors step in,
otherwise the can will get kicked down the road.
The consequential effects on our economy of the can being kicked down
the road are not good, not good at all.
Our policy-makers need to react real quick to the new normal. The
right signal at this point in time would be to slash the proposed
capital gains tax. It is always better to tax something rather than
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 91.25
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.52% 2015
162.05 0.03 0.02%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +0.18% 2015
5,121.99 0.23 0.00%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
The Nairobi All Share surged +1.672% to close at 164.76.
Safaricom lifted the All Share rallying +6.137% on the occasion of its
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 16.08 points to close at 5138.07
Equity Turnover remains sub par and clocked 310.114m.
Sell Side Supply was in short supply for a number of Key Counters.
Mumias Sugar was a Zero in 2014 but has ramped +31.578% this year and
is evidently a Hero so far in January.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Williamson Tea firmed a further 2.181% making that a 12.4% 2 day Spike higher.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom rallied a mighty +6.137% to close at 14.70 in what some
might characterise as an exuberant [and quite proper for that]
response to its CEO Bob Collymore's birthday. Safaricom traded 1.348m
shares With Buyers outpacing Sellers by a Factor of 10 versus 1 for
most of the session. Safaricom traded shares at a session high of
15.00 +8.303% which price level is also an all time Closing High
reached 9th of last month. Safaricom remains in a relentless Bull
Trend which has lasted 36 months and is headed to new all time highs
in short order. Safaricom is +4.62% in 2015
Safaricom share price data here +4.62% 2015
Happy Birthday to the Man of the Moment @bobcollymore
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank was the second most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange and rallied +1.77% to close at 57.50 and and
traded 735,500 shares worth 42.32m. Kenya Commercial Bank had Buyers
for more than 2x the volume traded and was trading at 58.00 +2.65% at
the Finish. Kenya Commercial Bank is +0.877% in 2015 and all set to
test a record closing High of 60.00 reached last year.
Equity Bank firmed +1.0204% to close at 49.50 and was trading at 51.00
+4.08% at the Finish Line. Equity Bank traded 509,900 shares.
CFC Stanbic edged 0.8% higher to close at 126.00 and traded 175,000 shares.
COOP Bank eased 0.52% to close at 19.00 with 1.16m shares changing
hands. COOP Bank has eased 5% in 2015 and must be in sight of turning
around and turning higher.
Centum was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
[Centum will be bagging a very solid gain from the sale of its stake
in UAP, announced earlier in the week] and rallied 4.8% to close at
65.50 and was trading at 67.50 +8.00% at the close. Centum traded
985,400 shares worth 64.923m. Centum has bounced +6.504% in 2015 as it
recovers from some big Ticket Bed and Breakfast Trades at the Back-End
of 2014 which were transacted at a discount.
Centum @Centum_Inv share price data +6.504% 2015
09-JAN-2015 @Centum_Inv SALE OF SHARES IN UAP HOLDINGS LTD
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Mumias Sugar surged 8.7% to close at 2.50 and a more than 6 month high
on heavy trading volume of 11.217m shares worth 28.034m. There were
Buyers left over at 2.50 with No Sellers for the last hour of trading.
Mumias Sugar has ramped +31.578% higher in 2015 and is the fastest
stock out of the Blocks at the NSE this year. The Precipitator of this
2015 Rally was the Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich whose emollient
language signalled the Government of Kenya was ready to step in and
shareholders were not to be left whistling in the dark.
@MumiasSugarCo share price data here +31.578% 2015
EABL ticked 0.32% easier to close at 305.00 and traded 104,300 shares.
I am bullish about Charles Ireland's EABL in 2015 and have a price
target of 400.00 this Year and expect the Area around 300.00 to
provide strong Buy Side Support. On a risk-adjusted basis, this level
is an Interesting Entry Point.
East African Portland Cement rebounded 7.27% to close at 55.00 and
took back yesterdays mark-down.