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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 02nd of January 2015

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

First of all allow me to wish each and everyone of you who reads this,
a spectacular 2015 one which surpasses even your wildest expectations.

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MindSpeak "The Musical" with @AaronRimbui @YouTube

Macro Thoughts

The Dollar is going to rally big in 2015.

Home Thoughts

We had a wonderful time in Diani at @SwahiliBeach. I said to @Nishet
this visit is affording deep insights into the Kenya [Upper] Middle
Class and well done to @shyamolaet for what was some very high value
capture over the Christmas Period. There is a Pied Piper type person
in Diani who summons all the Teenagers and probably up to 30. One
Night, I dropped Aysha and Layla off at 40 Thieves at about midnight
and on my way back I see this European Individual walking on the road,
barefoot and in a pair of shorts and very little else. I thought to

''Damn good show!''

So there is a Scene down there and one Parent said to me

''The Kids run our lives and thats why we are all here.''

The big headline Event 6AM was cancelled but 40 Thieves made out like
Bandits because everything rerouted there.

Hannah had a great time, most of it spent in the Pool.

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@alykhansatchu: Greetings from the Sea Wasini Island Kenya

We got to Wasini Island sadly did not see any Dolphins. We saw a
Turtle and that was very cool. I said to Nishet jump in and she did
and I asked her afterwards

''How was it?''

Because I knew floating around in the deep Indian Ocean was not
something she would typically do I was quite proud of her.

Whilst swimming about, she asked

''Where is the Boat?''

I said

''Do not worry, they will follow us.'' They were nowhere to be seen momentarily.

I would like to thank Mr. Kelly and Mrs. Moni Khalsi for being such
charming and interesting Hosts.

Hannah told me, ''I love the Kenyan Coast.''

And i thought thats my Girl.

The Teenagers might have said the same thing but they had gone a
little nocturnal on me.

We drove back yesterday.

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He said "It's really hard to comprehend [the plane acted in a way] bordering on the edge of logic," as it plunged into the water "'like a piece of metal being thrown down."
Law & Politics

Mr Soejatman believes the crash occurred because the aircraft was
caught in a severe updraft, followed by an equally severe ground
draft, with the leaked figures showing that it climbed at a staggering
rate of 6000ft to 9000ft per minute.

The aircraft then fell at 11,000ft a minute, with bursts of up to
24,000ft - in marked contrast to regular circumstances, when a plane
would climb between 1000ft to 1500ft on a sustained basis, gaining
3000ft in a burst.

"You can't do that at altitude in an Airbus 320 with pilot action," he argued.

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American geopoliticians have taken over.
Law & Politics

Only three days before the run on the rouble, I asked Rosneft's
Mikhail Leontyev (Press-Secretary - Director of the Information and
Advertisement Department) about the growing rumors of the Russian
government getting ready to apply currency controls. At the time, no
one knew an attack on rouble would be so swift, and conceived as a
checkmate to destroy the Russian economy. After sublime espressos at
the Tazza d'Oro, right by the Pantheon, Leontyev told me that currency
controls were indeed a possibility. But not yet.

What he did emphasize was this was outright financial war, The only
equal component in this asymmetrical war was nuclear forces.

Divide et impera? It's not working. And it's bound to fail miserably.

As it stands, what we do know is that 2015 will be a hair-raising year
in myriad aspects. Because from Europe to Asia, from the ruins of the
Roman empire to the re-emerging Middle Kingdom, we all still remain
under the sign of a fearful, dangerous, rampantly irrational Empire of

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The Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday renounced Ukraine's "non-aligned" status with the aim of eventually joining NATO
Law & Politics

Any accession to the Western military alliance is likely to take
years, but a NATO spokesman in Brussels said: "Our door is open and
Ukraine will become a member of NATO if it so requests and fulfils the
standards and adheres to the necessary principles."

But Russia called the vote "an unfriendly step towards us".

"This political vector will only add to nuisances and acuteness in
ties," said Andrei Kelin, Russia's envoy to the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to the Russian news
agency Interfax.

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Hossein Amir Abdollahian described Saudi Arabia's inaction in the face of a six-month slide in oil prices as a strategic mistake
Law & Politics

Abdollahian dismissed United States efforts to fight Islamic State,
also known by its Arabic acronym Daesh, as a ploy to advance U.S.
policies in the region.

"The reality is that the United States is not acting to eliminate
Daesh. They are not even interested in weakening Daesh, they are only
interested in managing it," he said.

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (R) eats with soldiers during a visit to Jobar, northeast of Damascus SANA on January 1, 2015.
Law & Politics

"If there was an area of joy which remained in Syria, it is thanks to
the victories that you achieved in the face of terrorism," Assad told
troops, according to the Twitter account.

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You go from stone to stone across the morass" was one. "You campaign in poetry; you govern in prose" was another.
Law & Politics

What would turn out to be the high point of Cuomo's political career
came in the summer of 1984, when, at the Democratic National
Convention, he delivered his "shining city on a hill" speech. It
called attention to the left out and the left behind--the "people who
sleep in the city streets, in the gutter, where the glitter doesn't
show." Cuomo's indictment of Ronald Reagan's sunny callousness was, to
a dispirited Democratic Party, deeply inspiring.  On the strength of
it, he became the voice of the Party and the next presumptive
Presidential nominee. Everyone assumed that that was what he wanted,
including, it seemed, Cuomo himself. When he decided not to run in
1988, it appeared to be a political calculation. His son--now
governor--Andrew said as much. "This was not the pitch to swing at," he
told reporters.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2057  The euro started the new year at 29-month lows in Asia on Friday
Dollar Index 90.57
Japan Yen 120.39
Swiss Franc 0.9973
Pound 1.5557
Aussie 0.8131
India Rupee 63.465
South Korea Won 1102.11
Brazil Real 2.6574
Egypt Pound 7.1525
South Africa Rand 11.6167

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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2059 [Target 1.000 in 2015]
World Currencies

The euro is now perilously close to its 2012 trough, and major chart
support, at $1.2042. A break there would take it to territory not seen
since June 2010.

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Chinese stocks outpaced the rest of the world to end 2014 with an increase of 52 percent .CSI300.
World Currencies

Wall Street also managed double-digit gains. While the S&P 500 .SPX
ended Wednesday with a loss of 1.03 percent it was still 11 percent
higher for the year.

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The U.S. benchmark ended at a five-year low yesterday, capping a 46 percent drop in 2014,

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said it expects a "far lower" new normal
for prices and Barclays Plc (BARC) said oil has "further downside

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped 85 cents, or 1.6
percent, to close at $53.27 a barrel yesterday on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since May 2009. It peaked
at $107.73 in intraday trading June 20.

Brent for February settlement fell 57 cents, or 1 percent, to $57.33 a
barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, also the
lowest since May 2009. Prices decreased 48 percent in 2014 and more
than half from the 2014 peak of $115.71. The European benchmark crude
ended at a premium of $4.06 to WTI, compared with $12.38 at the end of

Crude production accelerated to 9.14 million barrels a day through
Dec. 12, the fastest rate in weekly data that started in January 1983,
EIA data show. It was 9.12 million last week.

"The real story is the shale revolution and the fact that Saudi
Arabia, the 500-pound gorilla, refuses to be the one to make the cut
to support prices," said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund
manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. "Everyone is fighting for market
share here."

Gold 6 month INO 1184.835


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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"Military action should take place" against the mainly Rwandan armed group known as the FDLR, declared Russell Feingold, US special envoy for the Great Lakes region of Africa and the DRC.

A recent surrender of about 150 FDLR fighters "does not come close" to
meeting the January 2 deadline for complete demobilisation of a group
"with connections to some of the worst crimes in human history,"
Ambassador Feingold declared.


Its called a Quid Pro Quo.

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South Sudan will hold general elections between May and July, said a government spokesman.

The government will give amnesty to rebels to encourage the widest
participation in the elections, said Ateny Wek Ateny, the president's
press secretary.

"We will hold elections in 2015 as we will not allow our democracy to
be held hostage to violence. A budget has been approved and we urge
all parties to participate. In South Sudan power will not be attained
by way of guns but rather by ballots," Ateny said.

A spokesman for the rebels, Brig. Gen. Lul Koang Ruai, rejected the
polls and amnesty saying forces fighting the government have committed
no crime. He also rejected the planned elections on grounds of

"We don't believe the elections the government is talking about will
be free and fair. We will not take part in it," Ruai said.

Soldiers loyal to President Yahya Jammeh went house-to-house in search
of opponents Thursday after the longtime leader blamed "terrorist
groups" for staging an attempt coup earlier this week.


Dhlakama insisted that a "caretaker government" should be formed, in
which both Frelimo and Renamo would appoint ministers. "We shall
govern together. The games have finished"


"We let them govern in 2004, and in 2009", he said referring to the
Frelimo victories in the two previous general elections. "What are
they thinking? They've become used to it, but I promise I will not let
them go any further".

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.596% 2014


49,770.60 +14.99 +0.03%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.6168


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1525


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +31.613% in 2014


8,926.58 -79.17 -0.88%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -16.143% 2014


34,657.15 -27.17 -0.08%

NIGERIA Political storm warning


It has been a good month for the opposition All Progressives Congress.
The APC's successful national convention in Lagos picked Muhammadu
Buhari as its presidential candidate on 11 December. Combined with
unrelenting bad news for President Goodluck Jonathan, that is eating
into his incumbent's advantage just two months before general
elections. With security and economic conditions the dominant issues,
the governing People's Democratic Party is coming under growing
pressure from ever more murderous attacks by Boko Haram's Islamist
insurgents and the effects of crashing oil prices.

On 17 December, Economy Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the National
Assembly that at 4.3 trillion naira (US$23.4 billion), the 2015 budget
would be the smallest for four years. Jonathan's woes, glossed over in
a bizarre video comparing him to Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy
and Nelson Mandela, have given the opposition a filip.

Many had expected  that the APC's convention to choose its flagbearer
would descend into an acrimonious shambles. Instead, Kayode Fayemi,
the former Governor of Ekiti State, organised a credible voting system
that avoided the usual recriminations about rigging and bribing.
Buhari won 3,400 of 8,000 votes, far ahead of his rivals, former
Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa
Kwankwaso. Buhari's next task was to pick his running mate. The APC's
two main components are Buhari's faction, with substantial grassroots
support in the north, and Lagos ex-Governor Bola Tinubu's faction in
the south-west, which controls most state governments in the region.
Tinubu suggested three names to Buhari: himself, the popular Lagos
State Governor, Babatunde Fashola, and Professor Yemi Osinbajo, former
Attorney General for Lagos.

Buhari chose Osinbajo, now a lawyer in private practice: he is
Christian (Buhari, Tinubu and Fashola are Muslim) and, given the
importance of regional and religious identity, he balances the ticket.
Apart from pushing through key judicial reforms in Lagos, Osinbajo is
married to the granddaughter of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the legendary
Yoruba nationalist leader.

The elite is divided. Business people prefer the status quo. However,
those who fear the economic effects of rampant corruption and the
failure of state security in the north want change. All this presages
one of Nigeria's closest ever elections. That reinforces concern about
the readiness of the Independent National Electoral Commission, which
has received just under half of the N93 bn. ($560 million) funding it
requested. Millions of people in opposition strongholds claim not to
have received voting cards.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +5.4079% 2014


2,261.02 +0.43 +0.02%

World Health Organization reports 7,905 Ebola deaths


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The personal hospitality business may be the most obvious sector of Sierra Leone's economy that has been decimated by Ebola @gettleman @nytimes

On a recent sultry night, as the breeze stirred the palms and the
waves gently crumbled against the shore, three women -- Susan, Zenab
and Tina -- sat together at a beachside bar nursing bottles of warm

The bar was empty. The streets outside were deserted, faint yellow
light spilling out from the sheet metal shanties. No male clientele
was in sight.

"It's been slow and rough," said Tina, who, like the others, declined
to disclose her full name because of her line of work.

"Yeah," said Susan. "It's dead."

Zenab stood up for a second to adjust her dress, which fit like a wet suit.

"Since Ebola," she explained, "no guys come around. What are we
supposed to do now?"

The personal hospitality business may be the most obvious sector of
Sierra Leone's economy that has been decimated by Ebola. After all,
the main slogan in Freetown, the capital, these days is A.B.C. -- avoid
body contact.

Of course, in every war or disaster there are profiteers. Ebola is no
exception. The authorities in Freetown recently announced the arrests
of "chlorine fraudsters," men who were selling fake chlorine powder
that looked like the stuff used to disinfect boots and hands.

"This place is lawless," said Mahmoud Kadi, a furniture maker, who
like many others reported that crime was soaring because of the
inordinate number of teenagers loitering on the streets, with the
police distracted by Ebola.

Tina, Susan and Zenab, the three prostitutes, said they used to get
plenty of business from the bar scene on the beach.

"But it's hard to have sex if you don't touch," Tina said. "And even
if I got a customer now, I better be careful."

Her friends just stared at their drinks. Faint reggae rap played in
the distance. The soft crush of waves could be heard just beyond that.

Tina looked pained.

"I have a son to feed," she said. "Do you think even when it's over,
it'll go back to normal?"

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The first patient in West Africa's devastating Ebola outbreak, a 2-year-old boy in Guinea, may have gotten the disease from bats in a dead tree in his village, a new study reports.

Emile Ouamouno, who died last year on Dec. 6, was a resident of
Meliandou, a cluster of 31 houses surrounded by farmland. Locals told
researchers that kids used to play in a hollow tree about 50 meters
(55 yards) from the boy's home. Children used to catch and play with
long-tailed, insect-eating bats that lived in the tree, which has
since burned down, according to the study in the journal EMBO
Molecular Medicine.

Zambia Cuts 2014 Growth Estimate as Mining Industry Contracts


Zambia reduced its estimate for economic growth this year as mining
output in Africa's second-biggest copper producer shrank.

Preliminary real gross domestic product expanded by 6 percent, Finance
Minister Alexander Chikwanda said in an e-mailed statement today. In
October, he predicted growth of 6.5 percent, while the International
Monetary Fund on Dec. 18 estimated the economy grew by 5.5 percent,
the slowest pace in 12 years.

While he didn't give industry data, the minister attributed the 2014
mining contraction to unspecified operational problems. A new tariff
system and the non-payment of value-added tax refunds to companies may
threaten future growth in an industry the country depends on for 80
percent of export earnings. The Zambia Chamber of Mines said last week
a shift starting Jan. 1 to higher royalties instead of profit tax may
cost 12,000 jobs and 158,000 metric tons of copper output next year.

Zambia's kwacha retreated 0.5 percent to 6.3764 per dollar by 4:35
p.m. in Lusaka, extending its 2014 decline to 13 percent, Africa's
worst performance this year after Ghana's cedi.

"There is no cause for alarm," and the government will ensure mines
are profitable while also giving due consideration for Zambians to
benefit from their resources, he said.

African Brewers Deploy Sorghum, Cassava in Production


There is a growing trend towards contract farming of cassava and other
inputs to the brewing industry across Africa, where seven governments
have established special tax regimes to stimulate the use of local
crops in beer production.

While using sorghum and cassava in Africa reduces the import bill for
barley by up to 40%, the special tax concessions negotiated have
proved critical to the launch of these new beers, which are priced at
around 70% of the cost of mainstream beers.

According to the industry market research company Canadean Ltd, the
beer market in western Europe is flat, estimated at -0.6% a year,
while "the volume of beer sold in Africa is expected to grow 4.6% per
year on average from 2012 to 2016, faster than any other continent and
nearly double the global rate."

read more

Kenya Economy Slows as Tourism Extended Almost Two-Year Slump
Kenyan Economy

Gross domestic product rose 5.5 percent on an annual basis from July
to September compared with 5.7 percent the quarter earlier, the
Nairobi-based Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said today in an
e-mailed statement. That compares with expansion of 6.6 percent in the
third quarter of last year.

Output from the accommodation and restaurants category shrank 14.6
percent from a year earlier, with the industry contracting for the
seventh straight quarter.

read more

Update: Base Resources Makes An Offer For World Titanium Resources Seeking Alpha
Kenyan Economy


Base Resources announces an offer for an advanced-stage mineral sands
developer in Madagascar.
This is a surprise as I absolutely didn't expect Base to be a
consolidator in this stage of its development.
My investment thesis could change rather dramatically if the offer
would be accepted by World Titanium Resources.
A surprising move from Base Resources (OTC:BSRUF) which is still
ramping up its production from the Kwale project in Africa. Even
though companies in the ramp-up phase are usually just focusing on
increasing the output rate as fast as possible, Base is already eyeing
the next stage of the company's development as it has made an offer to
acquire World Titanium Resources which owns a very large mineral sands
project on the island of Madagascar.

Source: company presentation

This announcement definitely surprised me as I wouldn't expect Base to
be a consolidator at this stage of its production curve. But after
reading up on World Titanium Resources, the offer makes a lot of sense
as the latter company owns 4 projects in Madagascar of which the
Ranobe project is by far the most interesting one as it contains
almost one billion tonnes of mineralized sand with an average grade of
6.1%. The offer consists of a share swap whereby the World Titanium
Resources shareholders would receive one share of Base Resources for
every five shares in WTR they own. This was a 60% premium compared to
WTR's closing price, but meanwhile the company's share price has
increased tremendously and is now trading at a premium to the bid. WTR
has already issued a statement telling shareholders to take no action,
but I strongly believe the offer is fair and will be accretive for the
WTR shareholders because of the following reasons. First of all, Base
is already in production and should generate free cash flow in
calendar year 2015. Secondly, WTR wasn't going anywhere. A quick look
at the press releases in 2014 show almost no progress at all, as the
company seemed to just release the mandatory quarterly reports (the
most recent corporate presentation is 10 months old!). I do think that
Base will be able to advance the project further. Thirdly, WTR's
market capitalization was just $5M and it would have been virtually
impossible to secure funding for the development of the Ranobe mine,
whilst Base will be able to advance the project through internally
generated cash flow.


This is a bold and innovative move by Tim Carstens.

read more

Base Resources share data Bloomberg
Kenyan Economy

Thanks @GeoffTooth for Dinner it was great to catch up with Tim
Carstens and the Base Board 624 days ago


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 90.797


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +19.202% in 2014


162.89 0.36 0.22%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +3.775% 2014


5,112.65 +21.05 +0.41%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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eleven-month to November Cement production surpassed full-year 2013 tonnage says @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

Pradeep Paunrana has laid a bullish Bet on this Trajectory.

.@ARMCement rallied 4.24% on the final trading session of 2014 share data here


read more

N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share posted a +19.202% return in 2014 making that a 3
Year Bull Sequence. The All Share is +140.0383% over those 36 months.
The Nairobi ^NSE20 Index eked out a +3.775% Return in 2014 and has
rallied 61.772% over the same 36 month period and has significantly
under performed the All Share.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.35 points to close at 163.24 and the
Nairobi NSE20 edged 4.78 points higher to close at 5117.43.
Equity Turnover was brisk for the 1st day of the Year and clocked
475.133m with 51.103% traded by EABL.
The Stock Market will be underpinned by sharply lower oil prices in 2015.
The Price Transmission has been sub-optimal to date.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom rallied  1.071% to close at 14.20 and traded shares as high
as 14.50 +3.571% during the session. Bob Collymore's Safaricom reached
an all time High of 15.00 on the 9th of last month and that remains
the near term Price Target. I expect Safaricom to rally towards 20.00
in 2015.

Nation Media was ticked +8.365% higher to close at 285.00 on light
trading of 600 shares. Nation Media had gotten very oversold in

Uchumi rallied +3.98% to close at 10.45 and traded 16,600 shares.
Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 3 to 1 and Uchumi is now
+16.111% above the rights Price and is 30.625% above a multi Year
closing low reached November last year in the run-up to the Rights

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 57.00 and traded 651,500
shares. Kenya Commercial Bank sits 5% below a record closing High of
60.00 reached in September last year and I expect a move through that
level in reasonably short order.

Equity Bank announced today that Equity Bank Kenya Limited was now re
characterised as Equity Group Holdings limited and is now registered
as a non-operating holding Company. The Banking Business has been
transferred to the wholly owned subsidiary Equity Bank Kenya limited.
Equity Group Holdings ticked 0.5% higher to close at 50.50 and traded

Equity Group Holdings Limited announcement


CIC Insurance rallied +4.166% to close at 10.00 and traded 389,900
shares on the same day that the Business Daily reported on the
following CIC Insurance Memo

''"The purpose of this communication is to inform you that after
comprehensive deliberations, the Audit & Risk Committee and the Main
Board resolved to terminate with immediate effect, the employment
services of all the officers found to have been adversely mentioned in
the forensic audit report. The officers have been informed of this
board's decision," said Mr Gitogo. "I would like to confirm that
management will ensure minimum interruption of customer service in the
affected areas," the memo concluded.

I tweeted this

@alykhansatchu Counterintuitively it's a good thing @BritamEA and
@CICInsurance signalling surveillance working + positive corporate


N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange on
the first Trading session of the year 2015. EABL traded 804,000 shares
worth 242.808m [51.103% of the volume at the Exchange today] and all
at 302.00 -1.95%. EABL has a preeminent East African Footprint and in
a market that is surely growing faster than the industry market
research company Canadean's estimate that  "the volume of beer sold in
Africa is expected to grow 4.6% per year on average from 2012 to 2016,
faster than any other continent and nearly double the global rate."
EABL has now lapped its Senator Tax Debacle and I expect a strong
bullish price move in 2015. Charles Ireland has been a strong and
determined Leader and I expect strong growth particularly across,
Tusker Lager, Guinness and High-End Spirits.

Total Kenya surged +9.38% to close at 26.25 and traded 3,500 shares.
There were Buyers for 1,422% more shares than were traded during the

Olympia Capital spiked +9.615% to close at 5.70.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2015

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