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Macro Thoughts

I know @GoldmanSachs has a parity call for euro/dollar in 2016, but I
think the unravelling will happen in 2015 and a lot more quickly.

In an article I wrote on August 25 2014, I posited that;

“My view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic world’’

When I plugged “arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up this;

“For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

The Swiss Franc move last week was a perfect example of arrhythmia in
the financial markets.

Home Thoughts

“You should dream more. Reality in our century is not something to be
faced.” ― Graham Greene, Our Man in Havana

Conclusions

The Houthis ascending to Power in Yemen, IS attacking its border,
Bashar Assad still in power, Saudi Arabia needs to look closely at the
Landscape.

@neildoyle01  Jan 5 Islamic State has issued images of what it
claims it an attack on a post on the border between Iraq and Saudi
Arabia.
pic.twitter.com/aOUIOSQw2l

China dismissed accusations it stole F-35 stealth fighter plans as
groundless on Monday, after documents leaked by former U.S.
intelligence contractor Edward Snowden on a cyber attack were
published by a German magazine.

The Pentagon has previously acknowledged that hackers had targeted
sensitive data for defense programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter, but stopped short of publicly blaming China for the F-35
breach.

Defense experts say that China's home-grown stealth jets had design
elements resembling the F-35.

The Pentagon and the jet's builder, Lockheed Martin Corp, had said no
classified information was taken during the cyber intrusion.

German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday published a cache of Snowden
documents, including a top secret U.S. government presentation that
said China stole "many terabytes" of data on the F-35 program,
including radar designs and engine schematics.

"The so-called evidence that has been used to launch groundless
accusations against China is completely unjustified," Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hong Lei told reporters.

President Xi Jinping has pushed to toughen the country's 2.3
million-strong armed forces as China takes a more assertive stance in
the region, particularly in the South China and East China seas.

As for sanctions, Hollande said, “I’m not for the policy of attaining
goals by making things worse. I think that sanctions must stop now.”

Conclusions

Its the same Fellow Again. He thinks he is a Djinn

Jinn or djinn (singular: jinnī, djinni, or genie; Arabic: الجن‎
al-jinn, singular الجني al-jinnī) are supernatural creatures in
Islamic mythology

The Quran says that the jinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching
fire",[1] but are also physical in nature, being able to interfere
physically with people and objects and likewise be acted upon.

They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to
jinn, as they can possess them. Jinn have the power to travel large
distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas,
mountains, seas, trees, and the air, in their own communities. Like
humans, jinn will also be judged on the Day of Judgment and will be
sent to Paradise or Hell according to their deeds.[10]

The world economy will grow 3.5 percent in 2015, down from the 3.8
percent pace projected in October, the International Monetary Fund
said in its quarterly global outlook released late Monday in
Washington.

The Washington-based lender also cut its estimate for growth next year
to 3.7 percent, compared with 4 percent in October.

“The world economy is facing strong and complex cross currents,”
Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said in the text of
remarks at a press briefing Tuesday in Beijing. “On the one hand,
major economies are benefiting from the decline in the price of oil.
On the other, in many parts of the world, lower long-run prospects
adversely affect demand, resulting in a strong undertow.”

The IMF cut its outlook for consumer-price gains in advanced economies
almost in half to 1 percent for 2015. Developing economies will see
inflation this year of 5.7 percent, a 0.1 percentage point markup from
October’s projections, the fund said.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde outlined the sobering outlook
in her first speech of the year last week, saying that oil prices and
U.S. growth “are not a cure for deep-seated weaknesses elsewhere.”

The U.S. is the exception. The IMF upgraded its forecast for the
world’s largest economy to 3.6 percent growth in 2015, up from 3.1
percent in October. Cheap oil, more moderate fiscal tightening and
still-loose monetary policy will offset the effects of a gradual
increase in interest rates and the curb on exports from a stronger
dollar, the fund said.

The fund lowered its forecast for the 19-nation euro area to 1.2
percent this year, down from 1.3 percent in October.

The IMF also trimmed its estimate for China’s growth to 6.8 percent,
down 0.3 percentage point from October. The government in the world’s
No. 2 economy will probably “put greater weight on reducing
vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth and
hence the forecast assumes less of a policy response to the underlying
moderation,” the fund said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to delay a second
increase in consumption taxes, along with the boost from cheaper oil
and a weaker yen, will enable a “gradual rebound” in that country’s
economy, the IMF said. Even so, the fund cut its estimate for growth
to 0.6 percent this year, from 0.8 percent in October, after Japan
slid into recession in the third quarter.

The IMF reiterated its estimate that the plunge in oil prices, which
stands at about 56 percent since June, will increase global output
this year between 0.3 percent to 0.7 percent. At the same time, the
rout has added a “new risk dimension” to the world, the fund said.

Emerging markets face a risk of capital flight once the Federal
Reserve starts raising interest rates, the IMF said. Risk have grown
more acute among oil exporters, who have seen their external balances
deteriorate since the oil market began collapsing last June, according
to the IMF.

The fund reduced its estimate for emerging-market growth this year to
4.3 percent, down from 5 percent in October.

The Federal Reserve has stopped printing dollars and I think the Fed
is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates. A
rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for a
renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher –
buy the dollar.

Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which
reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is
projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including
investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about
medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market
economies.

The United States is the only major economy for which growth
projections have been raised.

Four key developments have shaped the global outlook since the release
of the October 2014 WEO.

First, oil prices in U.S. dollars have declined by about 55 percent
since September.

Second, while global growth increased broadly as expected to 3¾
percent in the third quarter of 2014, up from 3¼ percent in the second
quarter, this masked marked growth divergences among major economies.
Specifically, the recovery in the United States was stronger than
expected, while economic performance in all other major economies—most
notably Japan—fell short of expectations.

Third, with more marked growth divergence across major economies, the
U.S. dollar has appreciated some 6 percent in real effective terms
relative to the values used in the October 2014 WEO

Fourth, interest rates and risk spreads have risen in many emerging
market economies, notably commodity exporters, and risk spreads on
high-yield bonds and other products exposed to energy prices have also
widened.

Lower oil and commodity prices also explain the weaker growth forecast
for sub-Saharan Africa, including a more subdued outlook for Nigeria
and South Africa.

Euro 1.1577
Dollar Index 92.81
Japan Yen 118.32
Swiss Franc 0.8780
Pound 1.5072
Aussie 0.8184
India Rupee 61.825
South Korea Won 1087.36
Brazil Real 2.6517
Egypt Pound 7.2516
South Africa Rand 11.6642

ECB policy makers will meet on Jan. 22

The euro gained as much as 0.6 percent to $1.1639, the biggest jump
since Dec. 16. It fell to $1.1460 on Jan. 16, the weakest level since
November 2003, and was the worst performer among the dollar’s 16 major
peers in the week through Jan. 16. It traded at $1.1609, up 0.4
percent, at 2.48 p.m. in New York.

ECB President Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro
bond-purchase program this week, according to 93 percent of
respondents in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That tops the
500 billion euros in models presented to ECB officials this month.

WTI for February delivery, which expires today, decreased $1.18 to
$47.51 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, compared with the close of Jan. 16. Floor trading was
suspended Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and
transactions will be booked with Tuesday’s for settlement purposes.
The more active March future was down $1.26 at $47.87.

U.S. production climbed to 9.19 million barrels a day through Jan. 9,
the most in weekly records dating back to January 1983, according to
the Energy Information Administration.

The metal advanced on Jan. 19 to $1,283, the highest since Sept. 2,
after the Swiss National Bank ended the franc’s cap against the euro
on Jan. 15

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Conclusions

I was not wrong when I tweeted this at the Government of Mozambique
@IMFNews #Africarising conference in Maputo

Zambia goes to the polls Tuesday in a tightly contested race to elect
a president after a ruling party power struggle following the death of
Michael Sata in office last year.
http://news.yahoo.com/zambia-readies-presidential-vote-181304492.html

The two top contenders are Defence Minister Edgar Lungu, 58,
representing the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), and opposition candidate
Hakainde Hichilema, 52, of the United Party for National Development
(UPND).

At stake are the remaining two years of Sata's five-year term in
Africa's second biggest copper producer, where new taxes on the metal
have become a surprising election issue.

Lungu's party introduced the tax in January, while Hichilema has
promised to scrap it, pledging a business-friendly Zambia.

The rivals -- Lungu the lawyer and Hichilema the businessman -- drew
huge crowds at last-minute rallies, with heavy rain failing to deter
supporters.

Security forces fired tear gas at hundreds of rock-throwing protesters
in Democratic Republic of Congo's capital on Monday as opposition
parties try to block election reforms that may delay elections due in
2016.

Smoke billowed into the air as tyres burned in the streets of
Kinshasa, where police in riot gear and armed presidential guards were
deployed. Two military helicopters flew overhead. There were also
demonstrations in Goma, the main city in eastern Congo.

The protests are against a revised election law that requires a
national census be carried out before elections, a move that could
delay the polls by years and allow President Joseph Kabila to put off
standing down.

The bill was approved over the weekend by the lower house of
parliament and was due to be examined by the senate on Monday.

Opposition parties said their leaders, who had called on followers to
occupy parliament, were unable to join the protests as their offices
were surrounded by security forces.

Critics call the reform a "constitutional coup" but the government
says the census is a necessary part of the electoral process in the
vast, mineral-rich country of 65 million people.

Kabila's rivals have so far struggled to mobilise large groups, partly
because of fears of heavy-handed police tactics, and crowds have in
the past been easily dispersed. Ahead of Monday's march, opposition
leaders called on supporters to show more resistance and to fight back
against police.

Police fired tear gas on a crowd of more than 1,000 people in the
eastern city of Goma on Monday. A Reuters reporter saw at least two
people with bullet wounds in the streets.

Angola, Africa’s largest crude producer after Nigeria, is turning to
international lenders including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for cash as
it struggles to adapt to the lowest oil prices in more than five
years.

The southwest African country secured $250 million each from the New
York-based investment bank and Gemcorp Capital LLP of London in
separate deals within the past week, the state-run Jornal de Angola
reported on Monday, citing decrees by President Jose Eduardo dos
Santos.

The Finance Ministry has reduced spending on education, imposed a
government hiring freeze and is preparing to cut outflows by a further
20 percent this year to offset the impact of sliding oil prices. Dos
Santos has said some large infrastructure projects will be delayed,
without specifying which ones. Angola, sub-Saharan Africa’s
third-largest economy, depends on oil for about 75 percent of tax
revenue and almost all exports.

“For an average price of $60 a barrel, tax revenues will decrease to
$32.8 billion compared with $45 billion for 2013,” Manuel Jose Alves
da Rocha, chief economist at the Catholic University of Angola in
Luanda, the capital, said by e-mail. “There are storm clouds in the
behavior of world oil demand.”

The borrowing from Goldman and Gemcorp follows a $2 billion loan to
state-oil company Sonangol from China Development Bank, while
negotiations are under way with the World Bank about an aid package.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose as high as $115.71 a
barrel in June, before slumping this month to $45.19, the lowest since
2009.

Conclusions

“So I think we’re going to start to see the interests of business, the
interest of capital, move away from what has traditionally been
oil-propelled economies in West Africa, think Nigeria, think Angola,
amongst others, to more sort of East Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Tanzania. Yes, Tanzania, is going to be a natural gas story going
forward as well. And also Mozambique. So I think the center of
interest will shift from West Africa increasingly to East,” said
Davies.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.50% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

48,996.94 +538.69 +1.11%

South Africa gdp 2.2% 2013 1.4% 2014 2.1% 2015 2.5% 2016 [GDP
downgraded -0.2% in 2015 and -0.3% in 2016 versus October WEO]

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.2509 [sharply lower
post rate cut]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt’s foreign reserves dropped to $15.3 billion in December from
$15.9 billion in the previous month, raising its decline last year to
10 percent.

The currency has weakened more than 20 percent since 2011.

The central bank unexpectedly cut benchmark interest rate by half a
percentage point to 8.75 percent on Jan. 15, taking advantage of a
drop in the rate of inflation and a slide in oil prices.

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.57% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,599.10 68.18 0.72%

.@IMFNews Nigeria GDP Forecast
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/update/01/

Nigeria gdp 2013 5.4% 2014 6.1% 2015 4.8% 2016 5.2% [GDP downgraded
2.5% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016]

On Saint Valentine’s Day February 14 2015 Nigeria, Africa’s most
populous country and largest economy is poised to likely witness a
major revolution in its two-decade democratic politics. According to
DaMina Advisors’s proprietary ‘VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral
Forecast Statistical Model,’ (reproduced in full below) the opposition
candidate Retired General Muhammadu Buhari will narrowly unseat
incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan in an unprecedented electoral
upset. Nigeria, since 1999 predominantly a one party state, is poised
for change.

Buhari’s victory will likely see him snatching the commercial capital,
Lagos, away from the opposition as well as racking up double digit
gains in the Muslim north and single digit gains in the south western
ethnic Yoruba states. Jonathan is set to maintain his very high
margins in the oil producing Niger Delta south-south region, his home
region, as well as strong margins in the eastern pan-ethnic Igbo
states. Jonathan will likely also hang on to some religiously mixed
middle-belt northern states adjoining the capital, Abuja. However
abandoned by his political godfather, influential former President
Olusegun Obasanjo, and beset by an active Boko Haram insurgency in the
north eastern parts of the country that has sapped his middle class
and female support even in many southern Christian states, Jonathan is
poised to likely receive a cold Valentine’s Day gift of ejection from
the presidential palace at Aso Rock in Abuja. Jonathan’s defeat, if it
happens, will be unprecedented in Nigeria’s political history.

The naira fell 3 percent, the most in a week, to 190.45 against the
dollar before paring losses to trade at 190.30 as of 12:03 p.m. in
Lagos. It will probably drop to 220 by the end of 2015, according to
Yvonne Mhango, a sub-Saharan Africa economist for Renaissance Capital.

“We see no respite over the short term,” Johannesburg-based Mhango
said in a note to clients. The reversal of inflows and low
foreign-exchange reserves imply “a sizable naira depreciation is
coming,” she said.

Policy makers in Nigeria, which relies on crude for 90 percent of
export earnings and 70 percent of revenue, have reacted to oil prices
more than halving since June with spending cuts and an increase in
interest rates to a record 13 percent. The naira has still depreciated
13 percent in the past three months, the most among 24 African
currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The currency may weaken beyond 200 per dollar in the interbank market
this year, while the central bank may devalue the official rate in
auctions by 5 percent to 10 percent, Johannesburg-based Morgan Stanley
analysts Michael Kafe and Andrea Masia said in an e-mailed note.

 The naira has still depreciated 13 percent in the past three months,
the most among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

29,773.40 +738.51 +2.54%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -1.56% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Although Sudan's inflation rate remains stubbornly high, it has slowed
markedly since July, when it reached 46.8 percent. It stood at 25.6
percent in November.
http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0KS0JM20150119

 Kenya has asked the International Monetary Fund for a precautionary
loan of about $750 million to help it deal with any future shocks to
the economy, the IMF's resident representative said on Monday.

Armando Morales told Reuters the request was contained in a letter
from the Kenyan government received by the IMF last Friday.

The request will be considered by the IMF board on Feb. 2, he said,
adding the facility could help the east African nation deal with a
range of potential shocks.

"They could be weather-related. They could be security-related. It
could also be a change in foreign investor sentiments affecting
capital inflows," Morales said.

A Kenyan human rights activist says police tear-gassed schoolchildren
demonstrating against the removal of their school’s playground, which
was allegedly grabbed by a powerful politician.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/kenya-police-tear-gas-school-kids-in-demo-over-playground/2015/01/19/12daf87c-9fbd-11e4-91fc-7dff95a14458_story.html

Conclusions

Its a 24 hour always on World and this kind of thing pops on the Radar
real quick and hardly bends the Perception in Kenya's Favour.

@KinyanBoy A TERRIFIED kid cornered by the police,lets it out
loud. This photo will haunt someone #OccupyPlayGround
pic.twitter.com/No91qaElKR

Interior CS Joseph Nkaissery has apologised to pupils of Lang’ata Road
Primary School over the Monday tear gas assault.
http://www.nation.co.ke/counties/nairobi/Nkaissery-apologises-Langata-primary/-/1954174/2595224/-/juec06z/-/index.html

@GitobuImanyara: Meanwhile in Shauri Moyo it's riot as parents and
pupils reclaim school land grabbed
pic.twitter.com/6YjAY7Mwmn

Kenyan mortgage firm Housing Finance set the price of its 3.5 billion
shillings ($38.29 million) rights issue at 30 shilling each, it said
on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/kenya-house-idUSL6N0UZ09I20150120

The offer price represents a 28.9 percent discount on the weighted
average closing market price of its shares for the six months to the
end of last October, it said.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 91.499
http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +1.84% 2015
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

165.88 -0.93 -0.56%

5,177.38 -26.34 -0.51%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA), which runs the platform in
partnership with Safaricom, said loans amounting to Sh24 billion had
been borrowed through M-Shwari up from Sh7 billion in February last
year.

“We have so far disbursed loans amounting to Sh24 billion, while
maintaining a repayment rate of 97 per cent which is by far more
impressive than the repayment rates for loans advanced by commercial
banks,” said Jeremy Ngunze, CEO CBA Kenya.

M-Shwari has attracted over nine million customers in the two years it
has been operational, who have registered deposits in excess of Sh135
billion, added Mr Ngunze.

“We are in pilot stage with several branches of Tuskys supermarkets.
We are also in the process of on boarding Nakumatt Supermarkets,” said
Safaricom’s general manager in charge of financial services Betty
Mwangi in an interview.

The four retailers have a combined turnover that could easily add up
to more than Sh100 billion, indicating the lucrative commission income
that Safaricom is eyeing.

The ‘‘Lipa Na M-Pesa’’ service allows customers to pay for shopping
via mobile money by sending cash to special till numbers allocated to
merchants such as retail stores, fuel stations, pharmacies, hotels and
airlines.

Safaricom charges retailers a one per cent transaction processing fee
on the Lipa Na M-Pesa service, which is cheaper compared to the
average three per cent levy banks charge merchants to use their points
of sale (PoS).

The Nairobi  All Share followed through yesterdays drawdown of 0.56%
to close a further 1.133% lower at 164.00.
The All Share is +0.68144% this year.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index retreated 38.32 points to close at 5139.06.
Equity Turnover picked up speed to clock 535.456m

Safaricom @Safaricomltd was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange and retreated 4.45% to close at 13.95 with 14.468m
shares worth 202.108m. We learnt today from CBA [Safaricom's Partner
in the M-Shwari Platform/ Business] that loans amounting to Sh24
billion had been borrowed through M-Shwari up from Sh7 billion in
February last year.

"We have so far disbursed loans amounting to Sh24 billion, while
maintaining a repayment rate of 97 per cent which is by far more
impressive than the repayment rates for loans advanced by commercial
banks," said Jeremy Ngunze, CEO CBA Kenya in @BD_Africa.

M-Shwari has attracted over nine million customers in the two years it
has been operational, who have registered deposits in excess of Sh135
billion, added Mr Ngunze.

Safaricom is -0.711% in 2015 and will bounce off what is the lower end
of a Trading Range that has been in play since mid-November.

Uchumi firmed 1.568% to close at a Fresh 2015 high of 12.95 and traded
238,500 shares. Uchumi has rallied +28.955% in 2015 as it recovers
from a deeply oversold Position.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.53% to close at 9.40 and traded 164,100 shares.
Kenya Airways has bounced +8.045% higher this year. Lack of visibility
over the Hedge Book is probably capping what might be a quite bullish
move higher. Airline Stocks worldwide have been on a roll on increased
margins via a sharply lower Jet Fuel Price.

Kenya Commercial ticked 0.85% easier to close at 58.50 but was trading
at 59.50 +0.85% at the Finish. The Supply Side is thinning out and was
less than 400,000 shares during the session signalling an imminent
push into new all time Highs above 60.00.
Equity Bank throttled back 1.923% to close at 51.00 and traded
meaningful volume of 2.278m shares worth 117.296m.  Helios announced
this week that they were divesting of half of their Holding in the
Group to Norinvest.

Housing Finance released the terms of their Rights Issue where they
are seeking to raise 3.5b shillings on the basis of one Rights Share
at 30 shillings a share for every 2 held. HFCK surged +6.593% to close
at 48.50 and was trading at session highs of 50.00 +9.89% at the
Finish. HFCK is +6.0109% in 2015.

20-JAN-2015 ::  DISCLOSURE OF TERMS OF THE HFCK RIGHTS ISSUE 2015
DISCLOSURE OF TERMS OF THE HFCK RIGHTS ISSUE 2015
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Disclosure%20of%20terms%20of%20the%20HFCK%20Rights%20Issue%202015.pdf

Housing Finance set the price of its Sh3.5 billion ($38.29 million)
one for every two shares held rights issue at Sh30 each, it said on
Tuesday.

The offer will open on February 19 and run till March 13, said Housing Finance

Housing Finance share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTg%3D

NIC Bank rallied +3.174% to close at 65.00 and traded 211,700 shares.

EABL rallied +1.311% to close at 309.00 and was trading at 310.00
+1.64% highs at the Finish Line. EABL traded 109,200 shares and Buyers
outpaced Sellers by a Margin of 6 versus 1 at the finale. My Price
Target for EABL in 2015 is 400.00+.

Mumias Sugar which had rallied a blistering  +79.48% in 2015 through
this morning and was long overdue a bout of profit taking. Mumias
Sugar retreated 4.285% to close at 3.35 on heavy volume action of
11.447m shares worth 38.433m. I expect Mumias Sugar to find strong
price support at 3.00+.

Olympia Capital was the biggest Gainer at the Securities Exchange and
closed 7.19% higher at 7.40 on good volume of 214,800 shares. Olympia
Capital is +42.3% in 2015.